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Thread: Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 11/29

  1. #1
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    Default Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 11/29

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, November 29

    Good Luck on day #333 of 2018!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

    — Michigan 84, North Carolina 67— Are Wolverines best team in the country?

    — Florida State 73, Purdue 72— Seminoles led by 12 at the half, hung on.

    — Cal-Irvine 80, St Mary’s 75— Solid road win for the Anteaters.

    — Old Dominion 62, VCU 52— Monarchs were down a dozen at the half.

    — Illinois State 92, BYU 89 OT— Redbirds were down nine at the half.

    — Syracuse 72, Ohio State 62— Orangemen were 11-24 on arc; they were shooting 23.3% on arc coming into this game.


    **********

    Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….

    13) 40 years ago this week, one of my all-time favorite TV shows made its debut on CBS.

    The White Shadow was about a retired NBA player who coached an inner-city high school team in Los Angeles- his old college friend was the school’s principal.

    The show starred Ken Howard, who was brilliant as a high school coach who bickered with the female assistant principal; the show was written by Bruce Paltrow, better known as Gwyneth Paltrow’s father.

    Now that I’ve written that, I feel old. 40 years ago. Damn

    12) This week, Major League Baseball announced a multi-year partnership with MGM Resorts that includes sponsorships and promotions across various media platforms, as legalized wagering becomes an established thing all over America. Right now, eight states have legal sports betting, with more to come, for sure.

    11) Last year, Scott Tolzien started at QB in the Colts’ season opener against the Rams in LA; Tuesday night, he was the THIRD quarterback taken by the Birmingham Fire in the new AAF, who will be coached by former Packers’ DB Tim Lewis.

    10) If you’re wondering about this new football league, the AAF that drafted its QBs Tuesday night, there will be no TV timeouts and 60% fewer commercials than NFL games.

    Other differences will include no kickoffs and instead of onside kicks, the trailing team will get the ball on their own 35-yard line facing 4th-and-10. There will also be a 30-second play clock and mandatory two-point conversion attempts after touchdowns.

    The league starts the Saturday night after the Super Bowl and has a 10-game schedule this year, with eight teams in the league, at least for the first season.

    9) USC kept head football coach Clay Helton, but four assistant coaches were told to take a hike over the weekend. In college football, the assistant coaches do the recruiting, so this is no small thing, since college football recruiting is basically a 24/7/365 pursuit.

    8) Larry Scott is the commissioner of the Pac-12 conference; he makes $3.1M a year, more money than every football coach in the Pac-12.

    Greg Sankey is the commissioner of the SEC; he makes around a million bucks a year, less than every head football coach in the SEC.

    At $3M a year, you’d think Mr Scott could find a way to get the Pac-12 Network on DirecTV.

    7) West Virginia OC/play caller Jake Spavital is the new football coach at Texas State; they must’ve been watching that 59-56 game with Oklahoma last week. Mountaineers finished in the top 10 nationally in scoring offense this year; Spavital is considered a really good recruiter, which will come in handy at Texas State, which needs a lot of players.

    6) Purdue football coach Jeff Brohm turned down Louisville’s offer, will stay as coach of the Boilermakers, which is good news for Purdue football fans.

    5) Cleveland Cavaliers traded Kyle Korver to the Utah Jazz for two future 2nd-round picks and Alec Burks,

    4) Why is ESPN running another hour-long story on Bob Knight? Hasn’t this subject been beaten to death by now? Knight won three national titles but was a creep/bully who made the game less fun for everyone around him. When winning isn’t fun, thats a problem.

    3) Vanderbilt’s star freshman guard Darius Garland is out for this season after he had meniscus surgery; big loss for the Commodores.

    2) Fact that I found weird: Eldrick Woods made his first hole-in-one in 20 years last week while playing golf with Fred Couples in La Quinta, CA. How does a guy who is that good a golfer go 20 years in between hole-in-ones?

    1) I’m guessing you do too, but I get dozens of e-mails from companies promoting their Cyber Monday or Black Friday sales. They shout out “Hurry before its too late!!!!”

    When it comes to spending your money, it is never too late. A few hours after that sale ends, another one just like it begins, and that too, according to e-mails, is too good to pass up.

    Guess it is a cheaper way of advertising, but enough already with the e-mails!!!!

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    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Thursday, November 29


    Warriors won their last three games but they lost last four road games, are 0-2 as AU. Four of their last six games went over. Raptors won their last six games; they’re 6-5 as HF. Toronto’s last four games went over. Golden State won its last eight games with Toronto but is 1-4-1 vs spread in last six; Warriors are 1-3-1 vs spread in their last five visits to Canada. Five of last six series games went over.

    Clippers won eight of their last nine games; they’re 5-5 on road, 3-0 as AF. Seven of their last nine games went over. Sacramento lost four of its last six games; they’re 5-4 at home, 6-2-1 as HU. Kings’ last six games all went over. Clippers won eight of last nine games with Sacramento, covered four of last five; they’re 3-2 vs spread in their last five visits here. Four of last five series games went over.

    Indiana won five of its last seven games; they’re 7-4 on road, 2-4 as AU. Four of their last five games went over. Lakers won seven of last ten games but lost last two; LA is 6-4 at home, 2-6 as HF. 11 of their last 13 games stayed under. Home side won eight of last nine Pacer-Laker games; Indiana is 1-3-1 vs spread in last five series games played here. Four of last five series games stayed under.




    NBA

    Thursday, November 29


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    Trend Report
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    Golden State Warriors
    Golden State is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games
    Golden State is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games
    Golden State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Golden State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 7 games on the road
    Golden State is 17-7-1 ATS in its last 25 games when playing Toronto
    Golden State is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
    Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing Toronto
    Golden State is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    Golden State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    Toronto Raptors
    Toronto is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games
    Toronto is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games at home
    Toronto is 7-17-1 ATS in its last 25 games when playing Golden State
    Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Golden State
    Toronto is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Golden State
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing at home against Golden State


    Indiana Pacers
    Indiana is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games
    Indiana is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games on the road
    Indiana is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Lakers
    Indiana is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing LA Lakers
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing LA Lakers
    Indiana is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
    Indiana is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
    Los Angeles Lakers
    LA Lakers is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    LA Lakers is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 5 games
    LA Lakers is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    LA Lakers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Lakers's last 7 games at home
    LA Lakers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Indiana
    LA Lakers is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Indiana
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Lakers's last 5 games when playing Indiana
    LA Lakers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana
    LA Lakers is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Indiana
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 6 games when playing at home against Indiana


    Los Angeles Clippers
    LA Clippers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    LA Clippers is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Clippers's last 9 games
    LA Clippers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    LA Clippers is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Clippers's last 9 games on the road
    LA Clippers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Sacramento
    LA Clippers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Sacramento
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games when playing Sacramento
    LA Clippers is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
    LA Clippers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Clippers's last 8 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
    Sacramento Kings
    Sacramento is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Sacramento's last 5 games
    Sacramento is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Sacramento's last 21 games at home
    Sacramento is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
    Sacramento is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
    Sacramento is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
    Sacramento is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Sacramento's last 8 games when playing at home against LA Clippers


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-29-2018 at 12:42 PM.

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    Inside the Paint - Thursday
    Chris David

    Game of the Night (TNT, 8:05 p.m. ET)
    Golden State (15-7 SU, 9-13 ATS) at Toronto (18-4 SU, 11-10-1 ATS)


    Thursday’s matchup from the Scotiabank Arena could very well be a preview of next year’s NBA Finals as both the Raptors (2/1) and Warriors (1/2) are listed as favorites to win the Eastern and Western Conferences respectively.

    Unfortunately for tonight, this game won’t have as much drama since Golden State is still dealing with key injuries but nonetheless, I expect Toronto to make a statement.

    Tony Mejia, senior writer and handicapper, offered up his thoughts on the game.

    He said, “The Warriors have lost their last four road games and spent most of November at Oracle, leaving the state only for that ill-fated Texas trip that produced three setbacks. While Stephen Curry could return as early as this contest, Steve Kerr says it’s more likely that he’ll be returning on Friday against Detroit, so the degree of difficulty intensifies against the team with the league’s best record. Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green should make life difficult for Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson as catalysts right out of the gate and the Raps have a lot of length to throw at both of those guys to keep them from finding a rhythm. Three of the four occasions in which Golden State has failed to reach 100 points have come on the road.”

    Curry (groin) is expected to miss and the offshore outfit 5Dimes.eu opened Toronto as a heavy eight-point home favorite over Golden State.

    Toronto has won six straight games and that includes a 122-114 win over Memphis on Monday as a 5 ½-point road favorite. The Raptors rallied from a 17-point deficit to earn the cover.

    At home, the Raptors have gone 9-2 this season but they haven’t been profitable for bettors (5-6 ATS). Offensively, they’re ranked third in scoring at 117 points per game and second in field goal percentage (49.3%). Golden State is first in shooting (49.4%) and fifth in scoring (116 PPG) but the absence of Curry is noted.

    Without the All-Star the Warriors have gone 5-5 and they enter this game on a three-game winning streak. As Mejia mentioned, the road numbers (0-4) haven’t been good without Curry and the depth issue should play a factor in this game.

    The Warriors have gone 7-1 (4-4 ATS) versus the East this season and the ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in those games with Golden State averaging 116.9 points per game. The lone loss came to the Milwaukee Bucks (134-111). The Raptors also own a 7-1 non-conference record (3-4-1 ATS) with the only setback coming to the Pelicans at home.

    Golden State has won eight straight (3-4-1 ATS) in this series and four in a row at Canada. The Warriors were favored in all of those games and bettors should note that this year’s Golden State squad has been listed as an underdog three times this season and it’s 0-3 both SU and ATS. Also, the ‘under’ has cashed easily in all of those games as well.

    Along with the top matchup between two contenders, there are two late-night games and below is my quick handicap.

    Indiana (13-8 SU, 10-10-1 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (11-9 SU, 7-13 ATS)

    The late-night TNT double-header is a nice non-conference matchup from the Staples Center. The Lakers (-4 ½) will try to snap a two-game losing skid while the Pacers will look to improve to 3-0 on their current four-game road trip.

    Indiana blew the doors off Utah 121-88 on Sunday and escaped trouble on Monday with 109-104 win at Phoenix. While the Pacers are a solid club and certainly a team to watch in the playoffs, the oddsmakers have had a nice pulse on them. Indiana is 2-4 both SU and ATS as a road ‘dog this season, and it’s just 2-5 against teams at .500 and above. The ‘bully’ label is certainly in play when you see that they’re 11-3 against teams below .500. They did just beat the Jazz on Sunday but Utah and maybe Boston have been two of the biggest disappointments this season. Can the Pacers steal one at the Lakers?

    Unlike Indiana, Los Angeles has been good versus teams above .500 (6-4) but it’s still weak on defense (113 PPG) and it can’t buy a shot from 3-point land (34.7%). They’re ranked in the bottom third of the league in both those categories, while the Pacers (102.2 PPG) are ranked second in scoring defense and fifth from distance (37.6%).

    The Lakers aren’t in great form offensively, scoring 100.2 PPG in their last five games and that’s led to a 5-0 ‘under’ run. When you factor in the current play and the opponent, it’s tough to make a case for a Los Angeles team that has been pedestrian at home (6-4 SU, 3-7 ATS). And for whatever reason, the club has struggled against teams from the Eastern Conference (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) at the Staples Center.

    The home team has won four straight games in this series and three of the victories came by double digits. The ‘under’ is 3-1 during this span.

    L.A. Clippers (14-6 SU, 13-7 ATS) at Sacramento (10-10 SU, 12-7-1 ATS)

    Surprising starts by both clubs and while I believe both will taper off as the season progresses, you have to be impressed with the pair. For this matchup, the public will lean to the Clippers (-3) because the line is short and they’re clearly the more talented than Kings. We all know it’s not that simple and there are reasons to fade or follow both clubs. What’s stood out this season for me on Los Angeles is its great record as a favorite (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS). The point-spread has only mattered in one game and with this line being so short, it’s unlikely to play a factor on Thursday.

    L.A. is playing this game on no rest and it’s gone 1-1 both SU and ATS in that role this season. Another factor that could have me staying away is the Clippers production on the road (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS), and they’ve pulled some wild wins out of their hat too.

    Sacramento has been decent at the Golden 1 Center this season, going 5-4 SU and 6-2-1 ATS but their recent form could have you pumping the breaks. The Kings are 2-4 in their last six games and the defense has surrendered 119.5 PPG during this span, which has directly attributed to a 6-0 ‘over’ mark. Thursday’s total opened at 235 and they haven’t seen a number this high since early November.

    This will be the first meeting between the pair this season. The Clippers have gotten the better of the Kings recently, sweeping last year’s encounters (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) but the two road wins came by a combined eight points. The ‘over’ went 3-1.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-29-2018 at 12:43 PM.

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    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Thursday, November 29


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    GOLDEN STATE (15 - 7) at TORONTO (18 - 4) - 11/29/2018, 8:05 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TORONTO is 2-1 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
    GOLDEN STATE is 4-0 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    LA CLIPPERS (14 - 6) at SACRAMENTO (10 - 10) - 11/29/2018, 10:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA CLIPPERS are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
    LA CLIPPERS are 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    LA CLIPPERS are 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    LA CLIPPERS is 5-3 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
    LA CLIPPERS is 7-1 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    INDIANA (13 - 8) at LA LAKERS (11 - 9) - 11/29/2018, 10:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    INDIANA is 62-46 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    INDIANA is 83-58 ATS (+19.2 Units) in road games in November games since 1996.
    INDIANA is 35-22 ATS (+10.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    LA LAKERS is 3-1 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
    LA LAKERS is 2-2 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-29-2018 at 12:44 PM.

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    NBA
    Dunkel

    Thursday, November 29



    Golden State @ Toronto

    Game 501-502
    November 29, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Golden State
    114.995
    Toronto
    129.068
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Toronto
    by 14
    221
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Toronto
    by 9
    226 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Toronto
    (-9); Under

    LA Clippers @ Sacramento


    Game 503-504
    November 29, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Clippers
    121.760
    Sacramento
    112.953
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Clippers
    by 9
    230
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Clippers
    by 2 1/2
    235
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Clippers
    (-2 1/2); Under

    Indiana @ LA Lakers


    Game 505-506
    November 29, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Indiana
    114.706
    LA Lakers
    121.734
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Lakers
    by 7
    210
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Lakers
    by 4 1/2
    216 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Lakers
    (-4 1/2); Under

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    Tonight's epic showdown between Warriors and Raptors will be missing a bit of star power as Steph Curry (groin) and Draymond Green (toe) will both sit out.
    Current Pointspread: Raptors -9
    Current Total: 224.5




    NBA's Top OVER Referees (based on Over %, min. 5 games):

    1. Leroy Richardson 11-2
    2. Aaron Smith 11-3
    3. Pat Fraher 12-4
    4. Mark Lindsay 11-4
    t5. Tony Brown 11-5
    t5. Michael Smith 11-5


    NBA's Top UNDER Referees (based on Under %, min. 5 games):

    1. Ashley Moyer-Gleich 4-1
    2. Scott Wall 9-3
    3. Gediminas Petraitis 13-5
    4. JB DeRosa 9-4
    t5. Kevin Scott 11-5
    t5. Rodney Mott 11-5
    7. Sean Wright 11-6

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