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Thread: NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 13 (Thur., Nov. 29 - Mon., Dec. 3)

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    Default NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 13 (Thur., Nov. 29 - Mon., Dec. 3)



    NFL Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, November 29 - Monday, December 3

    Additional trends and information will be added as available.

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Opening Line Report - Week 13
    Joe Williams

    Thursday, Nov. 29

    New Orleans Saints (-7.5, 53) at Dallas Cowboys


    This is a battle of first-place teams, but Vegas and bettors are loving the Saints. New Orleans is on a roll, and both of these teams are coming off a full week or rest since they each played on Thanksgiving.

    William Hill opened the game at -7 1/2, and it quickly moved down to -7 within mere minutes. Offshore at BetOnline.ag, the line has yo-yoed from -7 to -7 1/2 throughout the course of Sunday night into Monday morning, while settling back at 7 1/2 as of Tuesday AM. The total has bounced around, too, opening at 51 1/2, flying up to 53 1/2, before settling in the 53-point neighborhood.

    Sunday, Dec. 2

    Indianapolis Colts (-4, 47.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars


    The Colts have been enjoying the resurgence of QB Andrew Luck, who has been on the sidelines for the better part of two seasons. It was worth the wait, as he is in the midst of a streak of eight straight games with three or more touchdown passes. He is tied with former Colts signal caller Peyton Manning for the second-longest such streak, while trailing New England Patriots QB Tom Brady for the longest in NFL history (10 games).

    The Colts are 3-7-1 ATS in their past 11 games inside the division, while the Jaguars are 1-3-1 ATS in the past five at home, while going 0-3-1 ATS in the past four against AFC South foes. Indy is also 0-6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings, including a push in Indy when the Colts came away with a 29-26 victory.

    Atlantis opened the game at -3 on Monday afternoon and it quickly shot up to -4 1/2 in the course of a few hours. Southpoint has held steady at -3 1/2 for Indy as of overnight Tuesday AM. Offshore is where the majority of shops have the line at -4 1/2, where Vegas is mostly listing Indy at -4.

    Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 56) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    The Panthers are mired in a three-game slide, putting their once pretty solid playoff shot into serious jeopardy. They enter the game 1-4 ATS in the past five on the road, while the Bucs are 2-6-1 ATS in the past nine.

    The Stratosphere opened the game at -4 and it fell to -3 1/2 by the overnight hours on Monday. at BetOnline.ag, the total moved up slightly from 55 1/2 to 56 in the matter of minutes, which is in line with most other offshore shops. The early money is on the Bucs, as bettors are not feeling the Cats on their three-game skid. It isn't a major move, though, as the line still has the Panthers at -3 1/2 all across the board in Vegas.

    Baltimore Ravens (-1.5, 49) at Atlanta Falcons

    There is some uncertainty with the total in this game, as it's unclear whether QB Joe Flacco (hip) will be able to return under center. After rookie QB Lamar Jackson played so well, perhaps Jackson keeps the job. Once head coach John Harbaugh offers clarity, the total will come out.

    The line opened at -3 in favor of the Ravens, but the line is on the move. At Golden Nugget, the line opened at -2.5 and is down to -2, if you're feeling the Falcs. Caesars/Harrah's opened up at -2 1/2 and is down to -1 1/2, which is the same situation at BetOnline.ag offshore. The early money on this game has been on the Falcons, and quite a bit.

    Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (-4.5, 45)

    The Browns are on a two-game heater, and they're actually on the fringe of the playoff discussion in the AFC. And it's almost December. Wacky.

    Westgate SuperBook opened this game at -4 1/2, while offshore you can catch the Browns +5 at BetOnline.ag if you like the road team. The Browns broke a 25-game road losing streak in Cincinnati in Week 12, but can they take down the first-place Texans?

    Even after Houston's dominance on Monday night against Tennessee, the line has held steady at -4 1/2 at most shops.

    Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-5, 40)

    The Bills kept the slide going for the Jaguars in Week 12, while the Dolphins folded in the fourth quarter in Indianapolis, falling to the Colts 27-24. They were able to cover, however.

    Miami is 4-1 ATS in the past five home games, although they're 3-7 ATS in the past 10 meetings with Buffalo. Westgate SuperBook opened the Dolphins at -6 1/2, moving to -6 within an hour, and down to just -5 as of early Tuesday morning. William Hill opened the game at -5 1/2, it moved up to -6, and is back down to -5. It appears that's where things will settle heading into mid-week.

    Chicago Bears (-4.5, 45) at New York Giants

    This game is off the board at most Vegas shops early on. You'll have to hit the offshore books if you want in on early action, as there is uncertain with the shoulder of QB Mitchell Trubisky. QB Chase Daniel looked good on Thanksgiving, however. BetOnline.ag opened the Bears at -4 1/2, if you believe in Daniel, who could potentially start again. This is still a hard game to find a line with such uncertain in the Chicago quarterback situation.

    Denver Broncos (-3.5, 42.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

    Bengals QB Andy Dalton (thumb) suffered a thumb injury which was severe enough to land him on the season-ending Reserve/Injured list, so the Broncos remain a moderate road favorite. QB Jeff Driskel will start for the Bengals, and it's still uncertain if he'll have WR A.J. Green (toe) available.

    The Broncos have consecutive wins against AFC frontrunners L.A. Chargers and Pittsburgh, so they're definitely running hot.

    The Strat and Westgate SuperBook are offering up Denver -3 1/2, but those are the only Vegas shops open for business on this game so far.

    Los Angeles Rams (-10, 54.5) at Detroit Lions

    Westgate SuperBook opened this game at -8 1/2 and it quickly moved to -10 as of overnight Monday into Tuesday, getting in line with the Strat, William Hill, etc. BetOnline.ag had this game at -7 briefly on Sunday, but it shot up to -9 1/2 with the course of three hours. If you're sitll feeling the Rams and want single digits, Treasure Island is the place to be, as you can still catch them at -9 for now.

    Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers (-14.5, 44.5)

    The Packers suffered several injuries to key positions, including along the offensive line, in Sunday's loss at Minnesota. There hasn't been a ton of movement on the line. The total varies from shop to shop, however. If you're feeling like it will be a high-scoring affair, hit Atlantis, Caesars or Westgate for a bargain at 44 1/2. Wynn was still holding steady at 45 as of Tuesday morning.

    Kansas City Chiefs (-15, 55.5) at Oakland Raiders

    The Raiders were two-touchdown underdogs at home back in 2009 against the Eagles, and they won outright by a 13-9 score. In 2014, they were 16 1/2-point underdogs at Denver on Dec. 28, 2014 and they fell 47-14. The Chiefs head into this game 11-4 ATS in the past 15 trips to the Bay Area, while the road team is 21-9 ATS in the past 30.

    Westgate SuperBook has the line up to -15 1/2, quickly moving up a half-point from an open of 15 after Oakland's uninspiring road loss in Baltimore. BetOnline.ag opened the game at -13, and it quickly moved to -14 within a matter of minutes, and to -15 by the early-evening hours on Sunday to get in line with everyone else. If you're feeling the Chiefs, TI has the game list at -14 on Tuesday morning, while its at -15 1/2 at Stations if you like the home side.

    New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-9.5, OFF)

    The Jets held QB Sam Darnold (foot) out on Sunday against the Patriots, as he was in a walking boot during the week. His status for Sunday's trip to Nashville is uncertain, so QB Josh McCown might be under center again. The Titans also played on Monday night, so this game has very little availability so far in terms of the total. Even after Tennessee was doubled up on MNF, they're still holding steady at -9 1/2 at most shops.

    Minnesota Vikings at New England Patriots (-6, 48.5)

    This is a marquee game, as the Vikings and Patriots could potentially be a Super Bowl preview. BetOnline.ag opened the game at -5 and the Pats quickly rose to -6 1/2 in the course of a few hours by overnight Monday. The total has remained steady at 48 1/2 across the board offshore. Jerry's Nugget still had the game at -5 1/2 as of Monday evening, while CG Technology opened at -7 and it was bet down to -6 in less thant 24 hours.

    San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-10, 46)

    The Seahawks are flying again, forcing their way back into the NFC playoff picture after stealing one in Carolina over the weekend. The Strat and Westgate each opened the home side at a 10-point favorite. The money might fly in on Seattle this week, as the 49ers are 2-10-1 ATS in the past 13 meetings in this series, and 1-5-1 ATS in the past seven trips to the Pacific Northwest.

    There hasn't been a ton of movement on this game yet, but if you really like the Seahawks and don't want to lay double digits, TI was offering the favorites at -9 1/2 into Tuesday morning.

    Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 51.5)

    The Bolts hit the road with a 4-1 ATS mark over the past five on the road, while the Steelers are 3-7 ATS in the past 10 at home. However, Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS in the past six after a straight-up loss. This game was flexed in to the Sunday night spot, and it should be a shootout between QBs Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger.

    Over the years the Chargers have had their troubles in the Steel City, going 2-5 ATS in the past seven trips to Pittsburgh and 3-8 ATS in the past 11 meetings overall. The Strat and Westgate SuperBook opened the game at -3 1/2 and it has held steady overnight into Monday. Offshore, BetOnline.ag opened the game at -4 and it went down to -3 1/2 to get in line with the Vegas shops.

    If you love the Steelers at home, Jerry's Nugget and TI are the places to be at just -3.

    Monday, Dec. 3

    Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 44)


    The Redskins lost QB Alex Smith to a gruesome leg injury in Week 11, and looked disjointed in a Thanksgiving showdown in Dallas. Of course, QB Colt McCoy wasn't tasked with making tackles, as the biggest problem for Washington was on defense against the Cowboys.

    Philly is pretty much favored at -6 1/2 across the board, although you could still hit the road team at +7 at Wynn as of early Tuesday morning. It's a mixture of -6 1/2 and -7 across the board offshore, and there are plenty of -3 1/2 first-half lines favoring the defending champs, too, if you're into that.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-27-2018 at 12:30 PM.

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    NFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 13


    Thursday. November 29

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    NEW ORLEANS (10 - 1) at DALLAS (6 - 5) - 11/29/2018, 8:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
    NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
    NEW ORLEANS is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 this season.
    NEW ORLEANS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
    NEW ORLEANS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
    NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
    NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
    NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    Sunday. December 2

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    INDIANAPOLIS (6 - 5) at JACKSONVILLE (3 - 8) - 12/2/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    INDIANAPOLIS is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    JACKSONVILLE is 4-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
    JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    LA CHARGERS (8 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (7 - 3 - 1) - 12/2/2018, 8:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA CHARGERS is 122-91 ATS (+21.9 Units) in road games since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS is 122-91 ATS (+21.9 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS is 98-71 ATS (+19.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS is 31-14 ATS (+15.6 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    CAROLINA (6 - 5) at TAMPA BAY (4 - 7) - 12/2/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CAROLINA is 59-38 ATS (+17.2 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    CAROLINA is 58-37 ATS (+17.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
    CAROLINA is 84-52 ATS (+26.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
    CAROLINA is 56-30 ATS (+23.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CAROLINA is 3-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
    CAROLINA is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    BALTIMORE (6 - 5) at ATLANTA (4 - 7) - 12/2/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ATLANTA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    CLEVELAND (4 - 6 - 1) at HOUSTON (7 - 3) - 12/2/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CLEVELAND is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
    HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    BUFFALO (4 - 7) at MIAMI (5 - 6) - 12/2/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MIAMI is 46-69 ATS (-29.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
    MIAMI is 73-101 ATS (-38.1 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
    MIAMI is 45-67 ATS (-28.7 Units) in December games since 1992.
    MIAMI is 57-83 ATS (-34.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
    MIAMI is 35-54 ATS (-24.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MIAMI is 2-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
    MIAMI is 2-2 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CHICAGO (8 - 3) at NY GIANTS (3 - 8) - 12/2/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CHICAGO is 52-78 ATS (-33.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
    CHICAGO is 14-34 ATS (-23.4 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
    NY GIANTS are 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
    NY GIANTS are 37-59 ATS (-27.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CHICAGO is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
    NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    DENVER (5 - 6) at CINCINNATI (5 - 6) - 12/2/2018, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CINCINNATI is 1-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
    CINCINNATI is 1-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    LA RAMS (10 - 1) at DETROIT (4 - 7) - 12/2/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA RAMS is 188-237 ATS (-72.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 188-237 ATS (-72.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 134-187 ATS (-71.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
    DETROIT is 48-71 ATS (-30.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DETROIT is 0-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
    DETROIT is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    ARIZONA (2 - 9) at GREEN BAY (4 - 6 - 1) - 12/2/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ARIZONA is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
    GREEN BAY is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 191-136 ATS (+41.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 67-41 ATS (+21.9 Units) in December games since 1992.
    ARIZONA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    KANSAS CITY (9 - 2) at OAKLAND (2 - 9) - 12/2/2018, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    KANSAS CITY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
    KANSAS CITY is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    KANSAS CITY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    KANSAS CITY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
    OAKLAND is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    OAKLAND is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    OAKLAND is 77-108 ATS (-41.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 77-108 ATS (-41.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 27-50 ATS (-28.0 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
    OAKLAND is 34-61 ATS (-33.1 Units) in December games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
    KANSAS CITY is 3-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NY JETS (3 - 8) at TENNESSEE (5 - 5) - 12/2/2018, 4:05 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    MINNESOTA (6 - 4 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (8 - 3) - 12/2/2018, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ENGLAND is 35-14 ATS (+19.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 35-14 ATS (+19.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 34-14 ATS (+18.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 86-55 ATS (+25.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
    MINNESOTA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 9) at SEATTLE (6 - 5) - 12/2/2018, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
    SEATTLE is 68-40 ATS (+24.0 Units) in December games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SEATTLE is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
    SEATTLE is 4-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Monday. December 3

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    WASHINGTON (6 - 5) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 6) - 12/3/2018, 8:15 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    WASHINGTON is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
    PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-27-2018 at 12:31 PM.

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    NFL

    Week 13


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    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Thursday. November 29

    New Orleans Saints
    New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games
    New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    New Orleans is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Dallas
    New Orleans is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Dallas
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Dallas
    New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
    Dallas Cowboys
    Dallas is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Dallas's last 20 games
    Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games at home
    Dallas is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing New Orleans
    Dallas is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing New Orleans
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
    Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans



    Sunday. December 2

    Arizona Cardinals
    Arizona is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games
    Arizona is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
    Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 16 of Arizona's last 23 games on the road
    Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 8 games when playing Green Bay
    Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
    Green Bay Packers
    Green Bay is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games
    Green Bay is 4-0-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    Green Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Green Bay's last 8 games when playing Arizona
    Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona

    Cleveland Browns
    Cleveland is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games
    Cleveland is 4-20-1 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
    Cleveland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Cleveland is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 games on the road
    Cleveland is 1-24 SU in its last 25 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 14 of Cleveland's last 20 games on the road
    Cleveland is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Houston
    Cleveland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Houston
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland's last 8 games when playing Houston
    Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
    Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
    Houston Texans
    Houston is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games
    Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
    Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Houston is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games at home
    Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
    Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games when playing Cleveland
    Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
    Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland

    Baltimore Ravens
    Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 9 games
    Baltimore is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games on the road
    Baltimore is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Atlanta
    Baltimore is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Atlanta
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Baltimore's last 9 games when playing Atlanta
    Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    Atlanta Falcons
    Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Atlanta is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
    Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 17 of Atlanta's last 25 games at home
    Atlanta is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore
    Atlanta is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Baltimore
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 9 games when playing Baltimore
    Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore

    Carolina Panthers
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games
    Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Carolina is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    Carolina is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Tampa Bay
    Carolina is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Tampa Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
    Carolina is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
    Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    Tampa Bay is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games
    Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tampa Bay's last 12 games
    Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Tampa Bay's last 16 games at home
    Tampa Bay is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Carolina
    Tampa Bay is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Carolina
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Carolina
    Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
    Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina

    Chicago Bears
    Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games
    Chicago is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Chicago is 5-16 SU in its last 21 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Chicago's last 13 games when playing NY Giants
    Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
    New York Giants
    NY Giants is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of NY Giants's last 18 games
    NY Giants is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    NY Giants is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of NY Giants's last 17 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of NY Giants's last 13 games when playing Chicago
    NY Giants is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago

    Buffalo Bills
    Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 9 games
    Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games on the road
    Buffalo is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Miami
    Buffalo is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Miami
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing Miami
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 12 games when playing on the road against Miami
    Miami Dolphins
    Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games at home
    Miami is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Buffalo
    Miami is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Buffalo
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami's last 12 games when playing at home against Buffalo

    Denver Broncos
    Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Denver is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 games
    Denver is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games
    Denver is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
    Denver is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games on the road
    Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
    Denver is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games when playing Cincinnati
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
    Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
    Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
    Cincinnati Bengals
    Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
    Cincinnati is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
    Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games at home
    Cincinnati is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
    Cincinnati is 4-15 SU in its last 19 games when playing Denver
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Denver
    Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
    Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver

    Los Angeles Rams
    LA Rams is 1-5-2 ATS in its last 8 games
    LA Rams is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Rams's last 9 games
    LA Rams is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    LA Rams is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of LA Rams's last 13 games on the road
    LA Rams is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 7 games when playing Detroit
    LA Rams is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
    Detroit Lions
    Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
    Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing LA Rams
    Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams

    Indianapolis Colts
    Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Indianapolis's last 19 games
    Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Indianapolis is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 14 of Indianapolis's last 21 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 9 games on the road
    Indianapolis is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
    Indianapolis is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Jacksonville
    Indianapolis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Indianapolis's last 15 games when playing Jacksonville
    Jacksonville Jaguars
    Jacksonville is 0-3-2 ATS in its last 5 games
    Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    Jacksonville is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Jacksonville is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games at home
    Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games at home
    Jacksonville is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
    Jacksonville is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
    Jacksonville is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Indianapolis
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Jacksonville's last 15 games when playing Indianapolis

    Kansas City Chiefs
    Kansas City is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 games
    Kansas City is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
    Kansas City is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Kansas City is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Kansas City's last 8 games on the road
    Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
    Kansas City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Oakland
    Kansas City is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Oakland
    Kansas City is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Oakland
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
    Oakland Raiders
    Oakland is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
    Oakland is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Oakland's last 18 games
    Oakland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Oakland's last 9 games at home
    Oakland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
    Oakland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
    Oakland is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games when playing at home against Kansas City
    Oakland is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Kansas City
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City

    New York Jets
    NY Jets is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
    NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    NY Jets is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    NY Jets is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games on the road
    NY Jets is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Tennessee
    NY Jets is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Tennessee
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of NY Jets's last 15 games when playing Tennessee
    NY Jets is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Jets's last 12 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
    Tennessee Titans
    Tennessee is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
    Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games
    Tennessee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    Tennessee is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games at home
    Tennessee is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing NY Jets
    Tennessee is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing NY Jets
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Tennessee's last 15 games when playing NY Jets
    Tennessee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against NY Jets
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Tennessee's last 12 games when playing at home against NY Jets

    Minnesota Vikings
    Minnesota is 18-6-1 SU in its last 25 games
    Minnesota is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Minnesota is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games on the road
    Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing New England
    Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
    New England Patriots
    New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
    New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
    New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota

    San Francisco 49ers
    San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    San Francisco is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
    San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    San Francisco is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Seattle
    San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Francisco's last 11 games when playing Seattle
    San Francisco is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Seattle
    San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
    Seattle Seahawks
    Seattle is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    Seattle is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
    Seattle is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games at home
    Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games at home
    Seattle is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games when playing San Francisco
    Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Seattle's last 11 games when playing San Francisco
    Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco

    Los Angeles Chargers
    LA Chargers is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    LA Chargers is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
    LA Chargers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    LA Chargers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Chargers's last 11 games on the road
    LA Chargers is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Pittsburgh
    LA Chargers is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Pittsburgh
    LA Chargers is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
    LA Chargers is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
    Pittsburgh Steelers
    Pittsburgh is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
    Pittsburgh is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home
    Pittsburgh is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games at home
    Pittsburgh is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games when playing LA Chargers
    Pittsburgh is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing LA Chargers
    Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
    Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers



    Monday. December 3

    Washington Redskins
    Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Washington's last 15 games
    Washington is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games on the road
    Washington is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Philadelphia
    Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
    Washington is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
    Philadelphia Eagles
    Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Philadelphia is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
    Philadelphia is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Washington
    Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Washington
    Philadelphia is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Washington
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-27-2018 at 12:32 PM.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    74,716
    Credits
    202,227

    Default

    NFL
    Dunkel

    Week 13



    Thursday, November 29

    New Orleans @ Dallas


    Game 301-302
    November 29, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    New Orleans
    148.034
    Dallas
    132.677
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New Orleans
    by 15 1/2
    47
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New Orleans
    by 7
    53
    Dunkel Pick:
    New Orleans
    (-7); Under


    Sunday, December 2

    Indianapolis @ Jacksonville


    Game 351-352
    December 2, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Indianapolis
    134.314
    Jacksonville
    126.669
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Indianapolis
    by 7 1/2
    43
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Indianapolis
    by 4
    48
    Dunkel Pick:
    Indianapolis
    (-4); Under

    LA Chargers @ Pittsburgh


    Game 353-354
    December 2, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Chargers
    136.174
    Pittsburgh
    143.372
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 7
    45
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 3 1/2
    52
    Dunkel Pick:
    Pittsburgh
    (-3 1/2); Under

    Carolina @ Tampa Bay


    Game 355-356
    December 2, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Carolina
    132.594
    Tampa Bay
    127.466
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Carolina
    by 5
    49
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Carolina
    by 3
    55
    Dunkel Pick:
    Carolina
    (-3); Under

    Baltimore @ Atlanta


    Game 357-358
    December 2, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Baltimore
    133.694
    Atlanta
    130.909
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Baltimore
    by 3
    47
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Atlanta
    by 1 1/2
    48 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Baltimore
    (+1 1/2); Under

    Cleveland @ Houston


    Game 359-360
    December 2, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Cleveland
    132.295
    Houston
    135.713
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Houston
    by 3 1/2
    46
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Houston
    by 6 1/2
    48
    Dunkel Pick:
    Cleveland
    (+6 1/2); Under

    Buffalo @ Miami


    Game 361-362
    December 2, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Buffalo
    120.810
    Miami
    130.709
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Miami
    by 10
    45
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Miami
    by 4
    40
    Dunkel Pick:
    Miami
    (-4); Over

    Chicago @ NY Giants


    Game 363-364
    December 2, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Chicago
    139.297
    NY Giants
    125.924
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Chicago
    by 13 1/2
    52
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Chicago
    No Line
    N/A
    Dunkel Pick:
    Chicago
    N/A

    Denver @ Cincinnati

    Game 365-366
    December 2, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Denver
    131.653
    Cincinnati
    129.092
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Denver
    by 2 1/2
    55
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Denver
    by 5
    44
    Dunkel Pick:
    Cincinnati
    (+5); Over

    LA Rams @ Detroit


    Game 367-368
    December 2, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Rams
    138.508
    Detroit
    130.512
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Rams
    by 8
    42
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Rams
    by 10
    55
    Dunkel Pick:
    Detroit
    (+10); Under

    Arizona @ Green Bay


    Game 369-370
    December 2, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Arizona
    113.967
    Green Bay
    136.522
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Green Bay
    by 22 1/2
    45
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Green Bay
    by 14
    44
    Dunkel Pick:
    Green Bay
    (-14); Over

    Kansas City @ Oakland


    Game 371-372
    December 2, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Kansas City
    138.831
    Oakland
    119.445
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Kansas City
    by 19 1/2
    45
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Kansas City
    by 14 1/2
    55
    Dunkel Pick:
    Kansas City
    (-14 1/2); Under

    NY Jets @ Tennessee


    Game 373-374
    December 2, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    NY Jets
    124.387
    Tennessee
    125.211
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Tennessee
    by 1
    46
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Tennessee
    by 10
    40
    Dunkel Pick:
    NY Jets
    (+10); Over

    Minnesota @ New England


    Game 377-378
    December 2, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Minnesota
    136.402
    New England
    135.201
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Minnesota
    by 1
    44
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New England
    by 6
    48 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Minnesota
    (+6); Under

    San Francisco @ Seattle


    Game 377-378
    December 2, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    San Francisco
    121.087
    Seattle
    134.352
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Seattle
    by 13 1/2
    54
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Seattle
    by 9 1/2
    46
    Dunkel Pick:
    Seattle
    (-9 1/2); Over


    Monday, December 3

    Washington @ Philadelphia


    Game 379-380
    December 3, 2018 @ 8:15 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Washington
    123.240
    Philadelphia
    132.081
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 9
    48
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 6
    43 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Philadelphia
    (-6); Over
    Last edited by Udog; 11-29-2018 at 11:04 AM.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    74,716
    Credits
    202,227

    Default

    NFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 13


    Thursday

    Saints (10-1) @ Cowboys (6-5)— New Orleans won its last 10 games, covered its last nine; they are 5-0 on road, 2-0 as road favorites. Last four years, Saints are 6-1 as an AF- they led last four games by 14+ points at the half, they’ve run ball for 187 yards/game the last four weeks- great balance. Dallas won/covered its last three games; they’re 4-1 at home, losing 28-14 to Titans; Cowboys converted 21 of last 43 on 3rd down. Under Garrett, Dallas is 10-7-2 as home dogs. Saints won nine of last 11 series games; they’re 3-2 in last five visits to Dallas, last of which was in ’14. Four of Saints’ last six games stayed under; three of last four Dallas games went over. NFC East underdogs are 11-6 vs spread this season as a non-divisional underdog.

    Sunday

    Colts (6-5) @ Jaguars (3-8
    )— Indy won its last five games after a 1-5 start; they’re 2-3 on road this year. Since 2012, Colts are 10-6-1 as road favorite, 1-0 this year. Indy went over its team total in seven of last eight games. Jags’ QB Kessler gets his 9th NFL start in his third year, with a new OC; Kessler went 0-8 as a starter for the ’16 Browns. Jacksonville lost its last seven games, last three by 3-4-3 points; they’re 2-3 at home this year, with last home win in Week 4. Under Marrone, Jaguars are 4-4-1 as home underdogs, 1-0-1 this year. Under is 3-1 in Jags’ last four home games; over is 5-2- in Colts’ last eight games. Jaguars’ new playcaller is former CFL head coach Scott Milanovich, who was 43-47 at coach of the Argonauts, winning one Grey Cup.

    Panthers (6-5) @ Buccaneers (4-7)— Carolina whacked Tampa Bay 42-28 at home in Week 9, running ball for 179 yards in game they led 35-14 at half; Panthers won nine of last 11 series games- season series has been swept the last nine years, with Carolina winning six of last nine visits here. Carolina lost its last three games, losing last two weeks by 1-3 points; Panthers have no takeaways the last three games (-4)- they’re 1-4 on road, with only win at Philly, when they trailed 17-0. Last three years, Carolina is 1-6-1 as road favorite, 0-2 this year. Bucs snapped 4-game losing skid LW; they’re 3-2 at home this year. Under Koetter, Tampa Bay is 7-4 as a home dog, 1-1 this season. Over is 8-3 in Tampa Bay games, 4-1 in last five Carolina tilts.

    Ravens (6-5) @ Falcons (4-7)— Rookie QB Jackson is 2-0 as NFL starter, gets his first road start here; Baltimore ran ball for 265-242 yards last two weeks, with Jackson running 38 times for 190 of those yards. Ravens are 2-3 on road this year- since ’13, they’re 6-10-1 as road favorites, 1-3 this season. Atlanta lost its last three games, scoring 16-19-17 points; they’re 3-3 at home. Last seven years, Falcons are 7-2 as home underdogs (0-0 this year). Home side won last four series games; Ravens lost last two visits here, by 20-17/26-21 scores. Three of last four Raven games went over total; four of last five Atlanta games stayed under. AFC North favorites are 9-5-1 outside division, 2-2-1 on road. NFC South underdogs are 8-4-1, 3-1 at home.

    Browns (4-6-1) @ Texans (8-3)— Short week for Houston after its Monday night win over a division rival; Texans won last eight games after an 0-3 start- they’re 4-1 at home. Under O’Brien, Houston is 16-10-1 as home favorites, 2-3 this year. Texans covered four of their last five games overall. Cleveland scored 28-35 points in winning its last two games (scored nine TD’s on last 18 drives); Browns broke 25-game road losing streak last week. Since ’15, Cleveland is 10-18-1 as road underdogs, 2-2-1 this year. Houston won last four series games, all by 10+ points; Browns lost their last four visits here, losing last two 30-12/33-17. Three of last four games for both teams went over the total.

    Bills (4-7) @ Dolphins (5-6)— Buffalo is 4-1 when it allows 21 or fewer points, 0-6 when they allow more; Bills ran ball for 212-167 yards last two weeks- they’re 2-4 on road. Since ’14, Buffalo is 16-12-1 as a road underdog, 3-3 this year. Miami lost six of its last eight games after a 3-0 start; Dolphins are just 15 of last 54 on third down. Miami is 4-0 when it allows 20 or fewer points, 1-6 when they allow more. Dolphins are 4-1 at home; last two years, Fish are 3-0-1 as home favorites, 2-0 this season. Buffalo is 7-3 in last ten series games, winning season’s first meeting five of last six years; teams split last six meetings played here. Last three Buffalo games went over total; under is 2-0-1 in Miami’s last three games.

    Bears (8-3) @ Giants (3-8)— Chicago won/covered its last five games; they’re 3-2 on road- over last 11 years, Bears are 13-8-1 as road favorites, 2-2 this year. Chicago’s defense scored four TD’s in their last four games. Bears are +14 in turnovers this year, +7 in last four games. Giants won two of last three games but blew 19-3 lead LW in 25-22 loss at Philly. New York is 3-1 when it scores 27+ points, 0-7 when they don’t; they’re 1-4 at home TY. Since 2012, Giants are 10-15-2 as home underdogs, 0-4 this year. Giants won three of last four series games, winning last two games played here, 17-3/22-16- teams last met two years ago. Six of last eight Chicago games, last three New Jersey games went over total.

    Broncos (5-6) @ Bengals (5-6)— Cincy QB Driskel gets first NFL start here, with Dalton out for year; they signed career backup Savage to be #2 QB. Driskel was 17-29/155 yards and TD LW vs Cleveland, coming in after Dalton got hurt. Bengals lost five of last six games, are 3-3 at home this year- in their last five games, they allowed average of 37.8 ppg. Since ’13, Cincy is 8-2 as a home underdog, 1-1 this year. Denver is 2-0 since its bye, upsetting Chargers/Steelers; Denver is 2-3 on road this year. Last four years, Broncos are 8-4-1 as road favorites, 1-0 this year. Teams are meeting for 5th year in row; they split last four years, going 1-1 in each stadium. Last four Bronco games stayed under total; last four Bengal games went over.

    Rams (10-1) @ Lions (4-7)— Rams are 10-1 but they’re 1-6 vs spread in last seven games, five of which they trailed in 2nd half. LA allowed 45-31-51 points in its last three games, but gets star CB Talib back from injury here, which should help some. Rams are 4-1 on road; under McVay, they’re 5-5 as road favorites, 2-3 this year. Former Lion Suh returns to the Motor City with the Rams. Detroit lost four of its last five games; they’re 4-9 in last 13 games as home underdogs, 2-1 this year. Home side won six of last seven series games; Rams lost last three visits here, with last win in ’09, their only win in a dismal 1-15 season. Rams are 8-2-1 vs spread in last 11 post-bye games. Rams’ last three games went over total; four of last five Detroit games stayed under.

    Cardinals (2-9) @ Packers (4-6-1)— Green Bay lost four of its last five games; they’re 4-0-1 at home, 0-6 on road— since 2014, they’re 19-12-2 as home favorites, 2-2 this year. Packers didn’t score TD in second half in last two games, outscored 20-6. Cardinals are 0-3 since their bye, losing by 12-2-35 points; they were outgained 414-149 in 45-10 loss to Chargers LW. Redbirds are 4-10 in last 14 games as road underdogs, 2-3 this year. Arizona won three of last four series games, with two of wins in OT in playoff games; teams last met in 2015. Home side won six of last seven series games; Cardinals lost their last nine games in Wisconsin, with last win here in 1949. Four of last five Green Bay games stayed under total; over is 5-2 in Arizona’s last seven.

    Chiefs (9-2) @ Raiders (2-9)— KC won four of its last five games; they scored 40-51 points in their two losses this year. Chiefs are 4-2 on road this year; they’re 10-3 in last 13 games as road favorites, 2-0 this year. They’ve had 20+ points at halftime in seven games this season. Oakland lost six of its last seven games (1-6 vs spread); they’re 1-3 at home, with losses by 20-14-14 points- the win was over 45-42 vs Browns. Raiders are 3-8-1 in last dozen games as a home underdog, 0-3 this season. Chiefs won eight of last ten series games; they’re 3-2 in last five visits to the Coliseum, losing 31-30 here LY. Chiefs covered three of last four post-bye games; under Reid, they’re 13-10 vs spread coming off a loss. Over is 5-1 in Chiefs’ road games.

    Jets (3-8) @ Titans (5-6)
    — Jets lost their last five games (0-5 vs spread); they’re 1-4 on road, losing last four away games (0-4 vs spread) by 4-19-14-7 points. Gang Green is 4-11-2 vs spread in its last 17 games as a road underdog. Jets scored 48-34-42 points in their three wins; they’ve scored 17 or less in the eight losses. Short week for Titans after Monday night loss in Houston, when Mariota went 22-23 passing for 303 yards in a losing cause. Tennessee is 3-1 at home this year; since ’16, Titans are 8-3-2 vs spread as a home favorite, 1-0 this season. Jets won four of last six series games, winning last two 16-11/30-8; they’re 4-3 in seven visits to Tennessee, with last one in ’14. Three of last four Jet games, five of last six Texan tilts stayed under the total.

    Vikings (6-4-1) @ Patriots (8-3)— Minnesota won five of its last seven games; they’re 2-2-1 on road, losing 38-31 at Rams, 25-20 in Chicago. Vikings stayed under their team total in five of last six games. Under Zimmer, Vikings are 13-9 as road underdogs, 1-2 this year. New England is paling for AFC seeding now, since their division sucks; Patriots won seven of last eight games, are 5-0 at home. Since ’15, NE is 18-7-3 as home favorites, 4-1 this year. Patriots won last four series games, all by 7+ points; Minnesota lost its last two visits here, 24-17/28-18. Three of last four Viking games stayed under total; last four Patriot games stayed under. NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 5-4 vs spread this year, 4-3 on road

    49ers (2-9) @ Seahawks (6-5)— Richard Sherman returns to Seattle with a 49er squad that lost eight of last nine games; SF is 0-6 on road- under Shanahan, they’re 7-5 as road underdogs, 2-3 this season. SF has no takeaways in last three games, is -15 in turnovers in its last seven games. Seahawks won four of last six games, winning last two weeks by 3 points each- they trailed last four games at halftime. Seattle is2-2 at home this year; they’re 2-6-1 in last nine games as home favorite, 1-1-1 this year. Seattle won last nine series games, winning last seven games played here, five by 10+ points. Last three Seahawks games went over total; four of last five 49er games stayed under. Since 2014, Seahawks are 9-4 vs spread as double digit favorites.

    Chargers (8-3) @ Steelers (7-3-1)— If playoffs started today, this would be first round matchup. Chargers won seven of last eight games, are 5-0 outside of LA, with four wins by 8+ points. Since ’12, Bolts are 25-13-2 as road underdogs, 1-1 this year. Pittsburgh had 6-game win streak ended in Denver LW; Steelers are 3-2 at home this year, winning last three home tilts, by 24-15-31 points. Since ’13, Pitt is 21-15 as home favorites, 3-2 this year. Steelers won nine of last 11 series games, with last meeting three years ago; Chargers won last visit here, but it was six years ago. Under is 3-1-1 in Chargers’ last five games, 3-1 in last four Steeler games. AFC West underdogs are 5-6 in non-divisional road games. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 7-3.

    Monday

    Redskins (6-5) @ Eagles (5-6)— Redskins have backup QB McCoy playing here; he threw three picks in his first ’18 start LW, is 7-19 as an NFL starter in his 8-year career. Washington had been +10 in turnovers for year until the -3 in loss at Dallas. Redskins lost three of last four games; they’re 3-2 on road. Under Gruden, they’re 16-16 as road underdogs. Philly rallied back from down 19-3 LW to beat Giants; they can tie for first place here if Cowboys lost Thursday. Eagles lost three of last five games, are 0-5 vs spread as a home favorite this year. Eagles swept series 30-17/34-24 LY, after losing previous five series games; teams split last eight meetings played here. Three of last four Redskin games went over; under is 4-2 in Philly home games.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-28-2018 at 02:18 AM.

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    Tech Trends - Week 13
    Bruce Marshall

    Thursday, Nov. 29

    NEW ORLEANS at DALLAS (FOX/NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)

    Surging Saints have covered nine in a row and covered last six away from Superdome. Cowboys have won and covered last three and 3-1 “over” last four after extended “under” trend prior (13-3 previous 16).
    Tech Edge: Saints and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


    Sunday, Dec. 2

    INDIANAPOLIS at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Indy has won last five SU this season and 3-1-1 vs. line in those games. Jags no covers last seven in 2018 (0-5-2 vs. spread). Colts “over” 5-3 last eight this season.
    Tech Edge: Colts and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


    CAROLINA at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Bucs on 2-6-1 spread skid since winning and covering first two. Cam 5-2 vs. spread last seven in series. Series had been “under” four in a row prior to first meeting Nov. 4. Bucs on 9-3 “over” run since late 2017.
    Tech Edge: ”Over” and Panthers, based on “totals” and team trends.


    BALTIMORE at ATLANTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Ravens 1-4 vs. line last five this season no covers last four this season but Falcons 3-8 vs. line in 2018. Atlanta 13-8 "over" at home since 2016.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Ravens, based on team trends.


    CLEVELAND at HOUSTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Browns 7-4 vs. line this season (5-3 as dog). Into last Monday, Texans had won last seven SU but only 4-3 vs. line in those games. Deshaun Watson did beat Bbrowns at NRG last season.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Texans, based on team trends.


    BUFFALO at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Bills have covered 3 of last 5 at Miami and 7-3 vs. points last ten in series. Dolphins 2-6 SU and 3-5 vs. line this season since 2-0 break from gate. Bills “under” 4 of last 5 away in 2018.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Bills, based on series trends.


    CHICAGO at N.Y. GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Bears on 10-3 spread run since late 2018 (8-3 for Matt Nagy TY). Chicago also on 5-game cover streak. G-Men 0-4-1 vs. number at MetLife this season.
    Tech Edge: Bears, based on team trends.


    DENVER at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    After horrendous spread slump of 2-14-1 since early 2017, Denver has turned things around with covers in five of last six including three straight on road. Cincy meanwhile on 1-5 spread skid since fast start.
    Tech Edge: Broncos, based on recent trends.


    L.A. RAMS at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Rams still no covers last four this season and 1-5-1 vs. line last seven in 2018. Rams on 4-8-2 spread skid since late 2017. Lions however just 1-4 SU and vs. line last 5 TY, though 2-1 as home dog in 2018.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Lions, based on team trends.


    ARIZONA at GREEN BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Cards are 5-3-1 last eight vs. line in 2018 and 2-1-1 last four away. Pack just 4-6 vs. points last ten at Lambeau though note 1-4 mark LY at home in games not started by Rodgers.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Cards, based on recent trends.


    KANSAS CITY at OAKLAND (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)

    This has mostly been a road-oriented series for more than 20 years, with the Chiefs having some very good extended numbers in Oakland. KC is 15-6 vs. the line its last 21 at Oakland. KC also 6-0-1 vs. number its last seven on the road. Raiders 1-3 vs. line at home in 2018, 3-6-1 last ten vs. spread at Coliseum.
    Tech Edge: Chiefs, based on team and series trends.


    N.Y. JETS at TENNESSEE (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)

    Jets no covers last five or eight of last ten in 2018. Also no covers last four on road. Jets 2-5-1 vs. spread last eight spread decisions after facing Patriots. Titans 6-1 vs. spread last 7 at Nissan Stadium. Titans “under” 4-1 last five at home, and 11-5 “under” last 16 overall into Monday vs. Texans.
    Tech Edge: “Under” and Titans, based on “totals” and team trends.


    MINNESOTA at NEW ENGLAND (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

    Vikes 7-3-1 vs. points last 11 away from home in reg season, though just 2-2-1 in role TY. Vikes 19-11-1 as dog for Zimmer since 2014 though 1-2-1 in role TY. Belichick 4-1 vs. spread as host in 2018 and 10-2 vs. number last 12 at Gillette Stadium.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Patriots, based on team trends.


    SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLE (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

    Seahawks on 4-1-1 spread uptick, 2-1-1 vs. line as host this season. Pete Carroll 7-0 SU, 6-1 vs. line last seven hosting Niners and 10-2-1 vs. spread last 13 in series. SF just 3-7 vs. line this season.
    Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team trends.


    L.A. CHARGERS at PITTSBURGH (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)

    Steel 6-1 SU, 5-1-1 vs. line last six this season. Covered last three at home. Also “over” 8-5 last 13 since late 2017. Bolts 24-11-1 as road dog since 2013.
    Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Chargers, based on “totals” and team trends.


    Monday, Dec. 3

    WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA (ESPN, 8:25 p.m. ET)

    Birds only 3-8 vs. spread in 2018, now 3-10-1 vs. line in reg season since late 2017. Also 1-6-1 vs. spread last 7 at Linc (no covers last five this season). Jay Gruden had covered six straight vs. Eagles prior to a year ago. Eagles “under” 5-1 at Linc TY, Skins “under” 10-5 last 15 since late 2017. Though 4 of last 5 “over” in series.
    Tech Edge: Redskins, based on recent trends.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-27-2018 at 12:32 PM.

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    Public action on Saints' odds might lead sharps to Cowboys in NFL Week 13
    Patrick Everson

    Week 13 of the NFL season kicks off with a big game in the Big D. We check in on the opening line and early action for that contest and three others, with insights from Derek Wilkinson, supervisor at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

    New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (+7)

    New Orleans hasn’t lost since Week 1, peeling off 10 consecutive SU wins while cashing nine in a row. The Saints (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS) topped Atlanta 31-17 on Thanksgiving night, covering as 11.5-point home favorites.

    Dallas is on a three-game upswing that has it tied with Washington atop the very mediocre NFC East. Per tradition, the Cowboys (6-5 SU and ATS) also played on Thanksgiving Day, beating the Redskins 31-23 as seven-point home faves.

    “New Orleans is the best team in the NFL right now, but the Cowboys are picking up steam, too,” Wilkinson said. “We only favored New Orleans by a touchdown, since the game is in Dallas. The Cowboys have only lost one game at home all season.

    “We’re still anticipating the public to bet the Saints. However, if the line jumps to 7.5, I think the sharp money will come in on the Cowboys.”

    Minnesota Vikings at New England Patriots (-7)

    New England, perhaps bolstered by a Week 11 bye, rebounded nicely from a stunning Week 10 blowout loss at Tennessee. The Patriots (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) went off as 13-point road favorites against the New York Jets and narrowly cashed in a 27-13 Week 12 win.

    Minnesota played the Sunday night game in Weeks 11 and 12, earning a split decision. The Vikings (6-4-1 SU and ATS) bounced back from a loss at Chicago by fending off Green Bay 24-17 laying 3.5 points at home.

    “We’re looking for the Patriots to come out strong at home against the Vikings,” Wilkinson said. “The Patriots beat the Jets today, but not impressively. This will be their first home game since Tennessee embarrassed them a couple weeks ago. I think they’re going to play well. We’ve seen a small amount of public betting on the Vikings plus the points so far.”

    It wasn’t enough money, however, to move the line off of seven. Per SuperBook policy, the line was taken off the board when the Packers-Vikings game kicked off. The line will go back up Monday morning.

    San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)

    A couple weeks ago, Pittsburgh looked very much back in form, then barely survived in a poor effort at Jacksonville in Week 11. Then the Steelers (7-3-1 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) lost at Denver 24-17 as three-point road favorites in Week 12, snapping their six-game win streak (5-0-1 ATS).

    San Diego is quietly having a solid season, now standing just a game behind Kansas City in the AFC West. The Chargers (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS) bounced back from a Week 11 home loss to Denver by throttling Arizona 45-10 laying 14 points at home.

    “This line would’ve been higher if the Steelers didn’t play like they did against Denver,” Wilkinson said. “Meanwhile, the Chargers are sitting pretty at 8-3, and they dominated the Cardinals. I think the sharps are going to like Pittsburgh at home in a bounceback game.”

    Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+6.5)

    Defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia is having a rough follow-up year, but is still quite alive in the middling NFC East heading into the Week 13 Monday nighter. The Eagles (5-6 SU, 3-8 ATS) rallied from a 19-3 first-half deficit to beat the New York Giants 25-22 home win giving 4.5 points.

    Washington was looking good after a 4-1 SU and ATS run put it atop the division, but Jay Gruden’s squad followed with two losses. On Thanksgiving Day at Dallas, the Redskins (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS) fell 31-23 as seven-point road underdogs.

    “We opened this at a little less than a touchdown, but went to Eagles -7 (even) shortly after, because that’s where the market settled. We don’t want to be the only book off of a key number like seven,” Wilkinson said. “However, I think that line is a little too high. The Redskins lost to really hot Dallas and Houston teams, and they’re playing a divisional rival who barely beat the Giants.

    “I think the wiseguys are going to be all over Washington plus the points.”
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-27-2018 at 12:33 PM.

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    By: Brandon DuBreuil


    RAVENS RIDING JACKSON

    Reports out of Baltimore on Tuesday stated that Lamar Jackson will make his third consecutive start at quarterback as Joe Flacco (hip) has yet to be cleared. There were also reports that Flacco will need a full week of practice once cleared, though that could happen later this week. Jackson has a 2-0 record as the starter and has revitalized the Ravens’ running game while getting them back into the playoff picture at the same time. If he keeps winning, it would be hard to envision Flacco getting his starting job back even when healthy.

    There’s one obvious when considering Jackson: You’re not backing him to do any damage through the air. In his two starts, he’s averaging just 164 passing yards on 22 passing attempts per game and has thrown three interceptions. His passing struggles have impacted Baltimore’s receivers and it would be hard to trust any of them from a prop bet or fantasy standpoint moving forward. The past two games were prime matchups at home against the lowly Raiders and Bengals, yet no Ravens’ pass catcher has totaled more than six receptions over the two games — and that is tight end Nick Boyle who has six catches for 55 yards. Baltimore’s top receiver over the two games is Willie Snead IV. He had five catches for 51 yards two weeks ago and followed it up with zero targets last week. There’s no way to predict who Jackson will be throwing to when he does take to the air this week against Atlanta, but we can be certain it won’t translate into a big receiving day for whomever he does target. We’ll be monitoring the prop market when it opens and taking the Under on whichever Baltimore receiver has the highest receiving yards total.


    GUS THE BUS RUNNING WILD

    As alluded to above, Baltimore is a different team offensively with Jackson under center and over his two starts, it is running the ball on 67 percent of offensive snaps, by far the highest rate in the league. Jackson has kick-started the Ravens’ running game but let’s not forget about Gus Edwards’ role. The undrafted rookie out of Rutgers broke out two weeks ago with 115 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries and followed that up with 118 yards on 23 carries last week. Edwards is a bruising runner (his teammates already call him ‘Gus the Bus’) who goes north-south and is apparently the perfect compliment to Jackson’s outside speed.

    This week, he gets his easiest matchup to date on turf against an Atlanta defense that ranks dead last in DVOA and second-last in rushing DVOA. There’s always extra motivation for teams to run against the Falcons as well to keep Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and co. off the field, as evidenced by what Atlanta’s opponents have done against it recently. Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram combined for 141 rushing yards on 25 attempts against Atlanta last week, Ezekiel Elliott ran for 122 yards on 23 carries against Atlanta two weeks ago, Nick Chubb ran for 176 yards on 20 carries three weeks ago...the list goes on. Take the Over on Edwards’ rushing yards total for Week 13.


    FOURNETTE LOSES APPEAL

    Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette lost his appeal on Wednesday morning and will sit out Sunday’s game against Indianapolis. Fournette was handed the one-game suspension after being ejected from Sunday’s game for fighting with Buffalo’s Shaq Lawson. The Jaguars will go with T.J. Yeldon and Carlos Hyde at running back in Week 13 (and just a reminder that Cody Kessler is at QB and the Jags have a new offensive coordinator).

    Yesterday we suggested taking the Under 20.5 on Jacksonville’s team total and that stands with today’s news. As for how Jacksonville’s backfield will shake out on Sunday, we can look at a very small sample size by looking back to Week 7 when Kessler came on in relief of Blake Bortles and Yeldon was the main back as Fournette was hurt. In that game against Houston, Yeldon got 12 carries for 28 yards and also caught five passes for 40 yards. That was with Nathaniel Hackett calling plays, however, and he was fired on Monday. A lot has changed in Jacksonville since then, including the addition of Hyde. Tread lightly here but we do expect Yeldon to be involved in the passing game and we’ll be looking to take the Over on his receptions total, especially if it’s set at 3.5.


    WASHINGTON CLAIMS FOSTER

    Linebacker Reuben Foster has been claimed off waivers by Washington after San Francisco released him early on Sunday. Foster has a long history of domestic violence accusations and most recently was arrested from the team hotel on Saturday on a charge of misdemeanor domestic violence. Washington has said Foster will not play until the legal process has played out and he has been placed on the Commissioner's Exempt List.

    It’s highly unlikely that Foster plays again this season so the impact of this news only really affects the 49ers. Foster was selected in the first round of the 2017 draft to be the next great San Francisco linebacker after Patrick Willis and Navorro Bowman. He has been highly effective while healthy and the Niners are left with a void in the middle of their defense. Fred Warner is now San Fran’s top middle linebacker and he has played well but is an overall downgrade from Foster and that isn’t great news with Seattle on deck. The Seahawks run the ball more than any team in the league at 50.6 percent. Add in the fact that Seattle is a 10-point home favorite on Sunday and things are trending for Chris Carson. The Niners haven’t allowed a running back more than 67 rushing yards since Week 4 but we do like the chances of Carson getting into the end zone once again, as he’s done in each of his past three full games. Take Carson to score a touchdown at any time.


    COUTEE HURTS HAMMY AGAIN

    Houston receiver Keke Coutee injured his hamstring again on Monday night though coach Bill O’Brien said that he is “trending toward” playing in Week 13 against Cleveland. Coutee has injured the same hamstring three different times this season and has missed multiple games already because of it. The injury has also forced him out of a couple of games, including Monday night where he caught just two passes (and cost us a bet in the process). The other storyline from Monday night was Demaryius Thomas’ emergence as the veteran caught four passes for 39 yards and two touchdowns after not being targeted since the first quarter of Week 9.

    Coutee is questionable this week but if he suits up he has to be faded as Houston hosts the Browns and a defense that is stingy to slot receivers, ranked third in DVOA against the position. The bad matchup, the risk of Coutee not being able to finish the game due to re-injury, and the fact that some of Deshaun Watson’s targets will go to Thomas make this an easy call. Take the Under on Coutee’s receptions total for Sunday if he gets the green light.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-29-2018 at 12:56 PM.

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    Games to Watch - Week 13
    by YouWager

    With the Houston Texans picking up their 8th straight win on Monday night, the race for the bye in the AFC is beginning to tighten up dramatically. Over in the NFC, it’s beginning to look as though we are going to need to go down to the final week of the season to sort out all the playoff combatants, with the Saints and Rams looking as though they will be the teams securing the bye.

    Still, there is a lot of football still to be played and we are going to focus on the games coming up in Week 13 of the NFL season. We have 4 games that we really like this week, so let’s take a quick look at those match-ups.

    New Orleans Saints (-7½ -105) at Dallas Cowboys (+7½ -115)

    A couple of weeks ago, we might well have viewed this match-up very differently. At that time, the Cowboys looked as they were on a road leading them in the opposition direction of the playoffs, but back to back wins has them on top in the NFC East. It’s a precarious lead, though, as just a game or so separates them from the chasing pack. The Cowboys will love having home field advantage for this one, but it may not mean much given that the Saints are now on a 10-game winning streak. Dallas will put up a fight, but they will eventually come out on the losing end.

    Cleveland Browns (+6½ -115) at Houston Texans (-6½ -115)

    The parity in the league this season means that the Cleveland Browns still have a path to the playoffs after winning 2 straight games. Baker Mayfield and their offense have come to life since the departure of Hue Jackson, and while the Browns look like a different team, they are still realistically looking at next season as when they might actually challenge for a playoff spot. The Texans are now winners of 8 straight games, and while they will be coming into this one on a short week, they should still be more than good enough to take out the Browns at home.

    Minnesota Vikings (+6 -110) at New England Patriots (-6 -110)

    Prior to the start of the season, there were a lot of folks looking at this one as a potential Super Bowl match-up. That looks a whole lot less likely now, though, as Minnesota have some work to do just to get into the playoffs. They are looking up at the Chicago Bears at the top of the NFC North and are in a very tight race for the Wild Card right now. The Patriots are still very much in the hunt for the bye in the AFC, but they will need to be a whole lot better in this one than they were versus the Jets in Week 12. It’ll be close, but I have the Patriots winning this one.

    Los Angeles Chargers (+3½ -120) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3½ -+100)

    The Steelers schedule is about to get brutal for the next few weeks, so they will be aware of the importance of home field in this one. Both of these teams are still in with a shot at landing the bye in the AFC, but they also both know that a loss here could well kill that dream. The one thing that we can probably all agree on with this one is that we are going to see some fun offensive football on Sunday night. This should be a seesaw battle that could well turn into a shootout. I have the Steelers edging it at home.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-29-2018 at 12:56 PM.

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    TNF - Saints at Cowboys
    Tony Mejia

    New Orleans (-7.5, 52) at Dallas, 8:20 pm ET, FOX/NFLN

    Dallas star Ezekiel Elliott has run for 394 yards over his last three games, more than any running back has amassed over a three-game stretch all season. As November began with a 28-14 home loss to Tennessee, Jerry Jones wasn’t smiling much when shown from his luxury box perch.

    Odds lists forecasting who could replace head coach Jason Garrett included retreads like John Fox and Jack Del Rio as things looked bleak for him as they headed into Philadelphia as a 7.5-point underdog.

    The Cowboys (6-5 SU, 5-4-2 ATS) have averaged 26.7 points in victories over the Eagles, Falcons and Redskins and have tied Washington atop the NFC East as it enters this prominent Thursday night matchup against the Saints (10-1 SU, 9-2). Dallas isn’t good enough that any of its remaining tests look like gimmes, but it will be opening its final five-game stretch run with the toughest opponent it will see and won’t be this large an underdog again the rest of the regular-season.

    In that sense, even though they’re home, the Cowboys are playing with house money. The pressure of flaming out this season is gone since they’ll be alive for their division title regardless of what happens here. Dallas is playing its fifth game in 25 days, an extremely busy stretch that surpasses what the Saints will be finishing up – 5 games in 26 days.

    Elliott has run for over 100 yards and a touchdown in three consecutive contests. If he manages to top the century mark and find the end zone against the Saints, he’ll join Emmitt Smith (’95) and DeMarco Murray (’14) atop the Dallas record books as the only Cowboys to do so in four straight. Elliott already leads the NFL in rushing yards per game (97.6) for the third straight season and is in the kind of groove that is difficult to interrupt.

    If you’re going to lay the points and ride the Saints, be sure to check the injury report below for news on how Elliott might have less space to work with.

    New Orleans has surrendered just 3.2 yards per attempt, the lowest rushing average allowed in the NFL through 12 weeks. The Saints defense also tops the league in allowing rushing yards per game (73.2) and are first in allowing first downs on only 14.6 percent of carries. No running back has topped the 70-yard mark against New Orleans, so the determining factor in this game will be how effective Elliott can be in keeping the Cowboys out of third-and-long sitautions. Breaking off a big play or three will also likely be required for Dallas to find itself in this come the fourth quarter given how effective the Saints have been on offense.

    The Drew Brees-led attack leads the league in scoring (37.2 ppg) and has topped the 30-point mark in nine of 11 games, topping 40 in three of the last four. The Cowboys haven’t surrendered a 30-point game all season, the only NFL team that can say that. The 28 points that the Titans scored on Nov. 5 are the most Dallas has given up, having contained Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan in back-to-back weeks to help turn things around before beating the Colt McCoy-led ‘Skins last week.

    This will be a significant step up in class from what Dallas faced while you were diving into turkey last Thursday, but the Cowboys have been surprisingly stingy and rank third in the league in points allowed (19.4). They’ll have to figure out ways to stop the Saints in the red zone to keep this game on the low-scoring side since it’s going to be difficult to stop Brees and this up-tempo offense between the 20s with so many weapons and space to work with. Read below for thoughts on this game’s total, which has been bet down from it’s opening figure.

    Alvin Kamara ranks second in the NFL in touchdowns with 15, currently only behind L.A. Rams’ RB Todd Gurley, who has reached the end zone 17 times. This will be his first game ever against the Cowboys and Elliott, who has largely been lauded as the top running back in the game despite Kamara’s emergence, so don’t be surprised to see him have a huge game.

    Kamara is built that way and has done his own damage in becoming the first back in league history with 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards through their first 20 games. Kamara failed to score a touchdown for just the fourth time this season in the Thanksgiving night win over the Falcons, snapping a run of five straight contests with a score. He’s caught a single pass in each of the last few games, so expect the Saints to try to feed him early and take a shot on a receptions prop. More thoughts on those are below as well.

    New Orleans is favored on the road for the fourth time in 2018 and comes in a perfect 3-0 SU an ATS and have won those games by an average of 20.6 points. The Saints’ overall margin of victory comes in at two touchdowns. They’ve covered on the road in all five of their wins and are looking to deliver for backers for a 10th straight time.

    The Cowboys have covered in three straight and are a home underdog for the first time. Dallas is 4-1 at home and won its last game catching points at home when it beat Washington 38-14 on Nov. 30 of last year. It’s looking to win four straight games for the first time since 2016.

    Louisiana native Dak Prescott will be facing the Saints for the first time and will be looking to build on a brilliant collaboration with new top receiver Amari Cooper, finishing with his highest rating of 2018 after throwing for a season-high 289 yards and two touchdowns. Cooper hauled in both scores, doing the bulk of the work on 90-yard scamper that broke Washington’s spirit. He’s been hit-or-miss with the Cowboys but more consistent than he was with Oakland, where he had games when he completely disappeared. I’d expect the game plan to get him involved early in order to keep New Orleans from keying on Elliott.

    The Cowboys have flourished on Thursday night of late, winning four of five straight up. New Orleans handled Atlanta last Thursday but were beaten in Atlanta on a Thursday night in 2017, scoring a season-low 17 points.

    New Orleans Saints
    Season win total: 9.5 (Over -140, Under +120)
    Odds to win NFC South: OFF to OFF
    Odds to win NFC: 10/11 to 4/5
    Odds to win Super Bowl: 2/1 to 7/4

    Dallas Cowboys
    Season win total: 8.5 (Over +120, Under -140)
    Odds to win NFC East: 2/3 to 4/9
    Odds to win NFC: 30/1 to 20/1
    Odds to win Super Bowl: 60/1 to 40/1

    LINE MOVEMENT

    The Saints were a 6-to-5 favorite to win the NFC South according to the Westgate LV SuperBook when the season began and those odds are now off the board and have been for multiple weeks. Hopefully you're holding a Saints ticket. Dallas opened at 7-to-2 to win the NFC East, which is where it finds itself alongside Washington but is a heavier favorite than I would currently have them at.

    The Cowboys paid +160 if you were of the opinion that they would make the playoffs, so that remains up in the air and those holding 'no' tickets at -190 are rooting hard for New Orleans tonight. The Saints look good for those who laid -180 on yes. The Saints were 7-to-1 to capture the NFC when the season began and the Cowboys were 15/1 when the season began. Dallas was 30/1 to win the Super Bowl and New Orleans was 14/1. Those Saints odds are far more lucrative than where they currently sit since emerging as the favorite to hoist the Super Bowl trophy.

    As far as this matchup is concerned, the Saints were a 7.5-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced last week and opened there at most books. Westgate and Wynn opened at -7 and have done some adjusting over the course of the week. As of Thursday morning, you could find New Orleans -7 at many places and +7.5 is readily available if you're riding Dallas. Bovada has the only +8 I've seen.

    New Orleans is in the -320 range on the money line. If you like the home 'dog outright, a payout on a Cowboys win will get you +270 to +290 depending on the shop.

    INJURY CONCERNS

    Dallas tackle Tyron Smith will be a game-time decision after not practicing at all this week due to a neck injury. Guards Zack Martin and Xavier Su’a-Filo are also game-time decisions after being limited in practice this week and are expected to play despite being listed as “questionable.” Adam Redmond has cleared concussion protocol and Connor Williams has overcome a knee injury, so Dallas will have some depth up front, but being able to plug in Smith is critical since he hasn’t allowed a sack and has really thrived at left tackle.

    New Orleans has already ruled out its left tackle, Terron Armstead, who hasn’t allowed a sack this season either. He’ll be missing his third straight game, so the Saints have been able to adequately replace him through the efforts of veteran Jermon Bushrod, but this will be their first road game without Armstead. Rookie WR Tre’Quan Smith, who has been bothered by a toe injury, is good to go, as are guard Andrus Peat, TE Dan Arnold, DE Marcus Davenport and corner P.J. Williams. The Saints are in great shape, health-wise, for a team entering their 12th game of the season.

    Outside of all the uncertainty up front, the Cowboys have also ruled out DE David Irving (ankle) and LB Sean Lee (hamstring), two of their top defenders. They’ve done a much better job replacing the invaluable Lee in the middle of their defense than they have in previous years thanks to third-year pro Jaylon Smith and rookie Leighton Vander Esch, so their matchups with Kamara and Mark Ingram should also determine a lot in this matchup. DT Taco Charlton is due back in the lineup after a three-game absence due to a shoulder injury, but fellow DT Maliek Collins remains questionable with a knee injury.

    TOTAL TALK

    The ‘over/under’ on this matchup opened at 54 ½ and the number has dropped to 52 ½ points as of Thursday morning.

    Weekly “Total Talk” writer Chris David of VegasInsider.com offered up his thoughts on this matchup:

    When looking at this matchup, the phrase ‘sharps versus squares’ can be used for both the total and the side. The betting public are pressing New Orleans and the ‘over’ while the professionals are backing the ‘under’ and Dallas as a home underdog.

    It’s hard to argue against the Saints, winners in 10 straight and they’ve covered the spread in nine of those games. From a total perspective, New Orleans has watched the ‘under’ go 6-5 on the season and that includes a 3-2 mark on the road. In last week’s 31-17 Thanksgiving win against Atlanta, the Saints did their part to help the game go ‘over’ but the Falcons couldn’t keep up and they certainly left points off the board.

    The New Orleans defense doesn’t warrant much recognition but the unit is allowing 12.7 PPG the last three weeks and their scoring numbers (22.4 PPG) have been better away from the Superdome. Dallas has been consistently sound on defense all season, allowing 19.4 PPG which is ranked third in the NFL.

    What’s strange about the Cowboys is that they’ve seen the ‘under’ go 6-5 on the season but the ‘over’ owns a 4-1 mark at AT&T Stadium and that includes last week’s 31-23 outcome against Washington on the holiday, which was helped with a big second-half.

    The Cowboys have only seen one total close in the fifties this season and that game went ‘under’ in a 22-19 road win over Atlanta in Week 11 . Including that result, Dallas has seen the ‘under’ go 2-0 in games versus the NFC South. Meanwhile, New Orleans is 2-1 to the ‘under’ in games against the NFC East and its outscored opponents 124-44 in those contests.

    For what it’s worth, the ‘over’ is on a 4-1 run in this series but the last meeting in 2015 went ‘under’ (48 ½) as New Orleans captured a 26-20 home win over Dallas.

    Including last week’s ‘under’ result between the Saints and Falcons, the ‘over’ has gone 8-4 in the NFL midweek matchup this season. I wasn’t surprised by the New Orleans-Atlanta result and that’s a trend we’ve seen from the Saints, who are now 4-0 to the ‘under’ in their last four games on Thursdays. Rather than toy with the game total, my lean would be to the Saints Team Total ‘under’ 30 ½.

    RECENT MEETINGS (New Orleans 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS last 8; OVER 4-2)

    10/4/15 New Orleans 26-20 OT vs. Dallas (NO -3, 48)
    9/28/14 Dallas 38-17 vs. New Orleans (DAL +3, 53.5)
    11/10/13 New Orleans 49-17 vs. Dallas (NO -5.5, 54)
    12/23/12 New Orleans 34-31 OT at Dallas (NO +3, 54.5)
    11/25/10 New Orleans 30-27 at Dallas (DAL +4.5, 49)
    12/19/09 Dallas 24-17 at New Orleans (DAL +7.5, 53.5)

    NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

    Westgate Vegas opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 14 currently has the Saints listed as an 11-point road favorite at the Bucs. The Cowboys will be back home in another huge game as they host the defending champion Eagles for the second time. Dallas is an early 3.5-point favorite.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-29-2018 at 12:57 PM.

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    By: Brandon DuBreuil


    CATCHING ON WITH KAMARA

    It’s Thursday! As per tradition, we kick things off with a Thursday Night Football prop (or two) in an exciting NFC matchup that sees the Saints visit the Cowboys. Alvin Kamara’s usage of late has been slightly different than what we’re used to, as he has run for 89 and 71 yards in his past two games but caught just one pass in each of those. That should change tonight.

    Last week, Kamara simply wasn’t needed in the passing game as the Saints got up big and Drew Brees threw just 22 passes. Two weeks ago, it wasn’t much different as the Saints got an early lead and cruised to a win over Philadelphia. Tonight should be different with Saints going on the road to face a hot Dallas squad that has won three straight.

    As good as the Cowboys have been though, they remain vulnerable to pass-catching backs. They rank 24th in DVOA against running backs, allowing 7.4 passes per game for 45.1 yards. Linebacker Sean Lee remains out which creates a big hole at linebacker, the position that is generally responsible for covering pass-catching backs. We expect Brees to exploit this matchup and we’re taking the Over 4.5 for Kamara’s receptions total.


    COOPER GETTING CONSISTENT?

    With our second prop for tonight’s game in Big D, we have to jump on the Amari Cooper train. If this were any other matchup we’d stay away as Cooper has been one of the most inconsistent receivers in the NFL since he entered the league. He has been solid in three of his four games in Dallas, however, and has posted a 22-349-3 stat line after his huge Thanksgiving performance. Dak Prescott loves finally having a legitimate top receiver and he could look Cooper’s way a lot tonight as the Saints have been routinely burned by WR1s.

    Cooper has been targeted by Prescot 32 times in the four games he has played in Dallas and has received 25 percent or more of the targets in three of the four games. Prescot has also completed 69 percent of his passes to Cooper for an average of 10.9 yards per attempt. The Saints are ranked 21st in passing DVOA and 27th against WR1s, allowing 7.3 passes and 84.8 yards per game.

    There are two other factors that could lead to Cooper having a big night: New Orleans is ranked third in rushing DVOA which should force the Cowboys to pass more often, and there’s always the chance that New Orleans jumps out to a big lead, which would also lead to a lot more passing from Prescott. Cooper is coming off a huge week on Thanksgiving and we’re thinking another one is in store tonight. Take the Over 67.5 on his receiving yards total.


    GREEN “BACK TO PLAY”

    A.J. Green participated in Cincinnati’s walkthrough on Wednesday morning and told the media he will be “back to play” on Sunday as the Bengals host the Broncos. Green has missed the last three weeks and the Bengals have been dominated in each of those games. He returns to a team that is a longshot to make the playoffs and will be starting a career backup quarterback in Jeff Driskel.

    There is obviously a lot of unknowns here but one thing we do know is that the matchup is leaning in Green’s favor. On the season, the Broncos defense is solid against the pass at third in DVOA, but they are coming off a game where they were absolutely burned by the Steelers where Ben Roethlisberger threw for 462 yards, Juju Smith-Schuster went 13-189-1, Antonio Brown had 9-62-0 and even Ryan Switzer posted 6-67-0.

    That may have been just one game, but the Broncos are consistently worse against an opponent’s top receiver. They are ranked 12th in DVOA against WR1s by allowing 9.4 passes for 76.3 yards per game. Tread lightly here as it’s Green’s first game back and he has never played with Driskel as the starter, but we lean to the Over on his receiving yards total.


    MACK CONCUSSED

    Indianapolis running back Marlon Mack remained in the concussion protocol on Wednesday. Mack was forced from Sunday’s game against Miami but still managed to gain 85 yards on 15 carries. He’s just in his second year but is already being labeled as injury prone after missing four games earlier this season and two games last year.

    If Mack can’t go for the Colts against Jacksonville on Sunday, we’ll be focusing on rookie Nyheim Hines. The rookie out of NC State was just hitting his stride as a pass-catching back earlier in the season when Mack was sidelined. Hines had nine receptions in Week 4 and then seven in Week 5 but then went back to the bench when Mack returned in Week 6.

    Jacksonville is a tough matchup against running backs, allowing the fifth-fewest yards from scrimmage to the position in the league, but it does give up 5.8 passes per game to the position. There’s also Jordan Wilkins, who will get a share of the snaps if Mack is out. We’re staying away from yardage totals for Sunday but if Mack is out we’ll be looking at the Over for Hines’ receptions total, especially if it’s set at 3.5.


    MOORE MATURING INTO AN OFFENSIVE WEAPON

    Panthers receiver Devin Funchess didn’t practice Wednesday because of a back injury that kept him out of last week’s loss to Seattle. It’s not a great sign for his availability this week. If he can’t go D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel will continue on the outside — though Samuel is also questionable with a hamstring injury. The Panthers head to Tampa Bay on Sunday in a mouth-watering matchup against a defense that ranks dead last in passing DVOA.

    Moore, a rookie out of Maryland, might be turning into a top-flight receiver right in front of our eyes after back-to-back huge performances with eight catches for 91 yards last week and seven for 157 and a touchdown the week before. He received 30 percent of Cam Newton’s targets last week with nine and even received 20.1 percent of the total targets two weeks ago with Funchess on the field.

    Regardless of whether Funchess returns this week, Moore will still have a nice matchup as the Bucs rank 30th in DVOA against WR1s and 31st against WR2s. You could argue that Moore had just one catch for 16 yards when these two teams played in Week 9 but that feels like the distant past when it comes to Moore’s role in the Panthers’ offense. We’re taking the Over on his receiving yards.

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    New Orleans Saints line is holding at 7 for a long time! The Juice has went clear up to -125 then back down
    Common sense is not so common.
    “You can have everything you want in life if you help enough other people get what they want out of life.” Zig Ziglar

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    NFL Underdogs: Week 13 pointspread picks and predictions
    Jason Logan

    Tis the season for temptation.

    With the holidays approaching like a runaway freight train packed with sugar, carbs, and gluten (is that still bad?), studies have suggested North Americans put on an average of seven to 10 pounds in the time between Thanksgiving to New Year’s Day.

    That’s funny, because anyone grabbing calorie-rich pointspreads – NFL underdogs of seven points or more – are feeling a little sick to their stomachs after those buttery-good plus-point lines have gone just 9-15 against the spread since Week 8 of the NFL season. The fattest of the fat – NFL dogs of 10 points or more – are just 1-8 ATS in that span.

    The oddsmakers are luring us once again in Week 13, like your Aunt’s annual Christmas Eve feast, with a spread of spreads featuring five games with handicaps of a touchdown or higher, and four of those currently of the double-digit variety.

    Well, I’m on a diet… from big spreads, not gorging myself during the holidays (I'm not made of stone people!). I’m thinking slim in Week 13 which is why I’m starting with the New York Giants at +4 hosting the Chase Daniel-led Chicago Bears.

    New York has played its best football of the season over the past three games. Well, two and a half if you consider that collapse to Philadelphia last week. But the G-Men still covered the +6.5 and, depending on what line you got for their win over Tampa Bay, they're on a 3-0 ATS run.

    The Giants have done well getting out of the blocks. They jumped out to a 12-0 led versus the Eagles and have averaged more than two touchdowns in the opening half during that three-game span. If they can get going early against the Bears Sunday, Chicago could be in trouble. Daniel was “acceptable” during his Thanksgiving start in place of the injured Mitchell Trubisky, but he’s not going to lead this team to a come-from-behind win anytime soon.

    But what about Khalil Mack and the Bears’ vaunted pass rush going up against a turnstile New York offensive line? Yeah, that’s a problem. Mack is going to get his. But I will say the Giants have done a much better job keeping Eli Manning upright during this three-game turnaround, allowing just seven total sacks – far better than the 3.5 sacks-per-game clip they’ve given up on the season.

    And just to sprinkle in some situational handicapping, like those crispy fried onion things on top of our plate of sports betting deliciousness, Chicago has a huge game on tap for Week 14 - hosting the L.A. Rams on Sunday Night Football – so there's a risk of looking past the 3-8 Giants on the road Sunday.

    BURP!

    Pick:
    N.Y. Giants +4


    Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5, 54.5)

    The Tampa Bay defense has been the butt of a more than a few jokes this NFL season (a lot of them too crude for this column... "end zone" being the punchline most of the time). As a group, they’re allowing 30.7 points on an average of 391 yards against a contest for a league-worst 0.504 points per play. Yuck.

    The bulk of those barf-inducing stats have come away from Raymond James Stadium, where the Bucs get blasted for 39.8 points per road game. At home, however, Tampa Bay is allowing only 19.8 points an outing. Granted, the home slate hasn’t featured the same high-power opponents that the road sked has but it brings another ho-hum offense to Tampa, in the form of Carolina this Sunday.

    The Panthers are stumbling down the stretch and bring a three-game losing skid into this divisional matchup. Carolina was gutted in a loss to Seattle last week, blowing a touchdown lead in the final seven minutes of the game, and now hits the road for its third away game in four weeks, towing behind it a 1-4 SU and ATS record as a visitor into Week 13.

    With Devin Funchess injured and Greg Olsen banged-up, a weak Panthers air attack has been declawed, leaving pass-catching back Christian McCaffery as its only true threat. Carolina’s offensive numbers take a serious nose dive on the road and face a Buccaneers stop unit ramping up the intensity.

    Tampa Bay has totaled 11 sacks in its last three games and is expected to have standouts DT Gerald McCoy, DE Jason Pierre-Paul, LB Lavonte David, and S Justin Evans all on the field Sunday.

    Pick:
    Tampa Bay +3.5


    Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5, 47)

    Let’s get this straight: I’m not betting on Jacksonville to play any better than it has been – which is terrible. I’m betting on Indianapolis not playing as well as it has been – which is pretty good.

    The strain of a seven-game losing skid has broken the Jaguars, benching Blake Bortles for Cody Kessler, axing offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and driving Leonard Fournette so far over the edge he’d sprint from the sideline to punch a guy wearing a football helmet as hard as he could. Oh, and Jalen Ramsey is out.

    That flaming dumpster full of diapers and week-old shellfish is getting a lot of stinky smoke in the eyes of NFL bettors, who are jumping all over the Colts but being blinded to the fact that there are some issues with this Indy squad heading into Week 13.

    First, everyone is hurt. The Colts lost TE Jack Doyle (kidney), RB Marlon Mack is in concussion protocol, red-zone monster TE Eric Ebron is nursing a bad back, WR T.Y. Hilton is slowed by a groin injury, and starting center Ryan Kelly is sidelined with a bum knee. While Mack, Ebron and Hilton are expected to go, they’ll be a bit tender for this AFC South rivalry (we can still call it that).

    Second, this is Indianapolis’ first road game in 30 days. Yep. The Colts haven’t left home in a month. Their last road game came before Halloween – a 48-28 win at Oakland in which Indy needed a 21-point fourth quarter to escape with a victory. The team was 1-3 SU in the four away games before that victory over the Raiders.

    And third, Indianapolis has built this five-game winning streak on the backs off god-awful opponents – like the Jaguars. The hit list reads like the opening selection order of the 2019 NFL Draft: Buffalo, Oakland, Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Miami. The Jaguars’ slide, on the other hand, has featured much tougher foes. Jacksonville has lost to the likes of Kansas City, Dallas, Houston, and Pittsburgh – all divisional leaders – and has at least kept things close in their most recent defeats, losing by an average of four points over their last four games.

    Hey, whatda know?! We’re getting +4.5 with the Jags this Sunday.

    Pick:
    Jacksonville +4.5

    Last week: 0-3 ATS (GAG!)
    Season: 23-12-1 ATS

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    By: Brandon DuBreuil


    DANIELS GETS THE GIANTS

    Bears coach Matt Nagy said on Wednesday that quarterback Mitchell Trubisky still isn’t throwing due to the shoulder issue that kept him out of their Thanksgiving game last week. He is not expected to play this week and Chase Daniels will make his second start as Chicago visits the New York Giants.

    Daniels is an above-average backup and was certainly serviceable last week in the win over Detroit, posting 230 yards and two touchdowns on 27-of-37 passing. What was most interesting about his start was his distribution, as he targeted Taylor Gabriel and Tarik Cohen eight times each and Trey Burton seven times while Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller had just four targets each. Gabriel and Cohen both had seven receptions, with Grabiel posting 49 yards and Cohen 45. Gabriel is in a good spot to have another nice day on Sunday as the Giants rank 29th in DVOA to other wide receivers (not WR1 or WR2). Gabriel has seven receptions in each of the last two weeks and seemed to have some nice chemistry with Daniels last week. We see Daniels looking his way again on Sunday and we’ll be taking the Over on his receptions total.


    DARNOLD, McCOWN BOTH LIMITED

    Who will quarterback the New York Jets on Sunday? And does it really matter? The shorts answers are we don’t know and no. Both Sam Darnold (foot) and Josh McCown (back, hand) have been limited participants in practice all week as the Jets prepare to visit Tennessee on Sunday. Darnold told the media earlier in the week that he’s “hopeful” to return but the Jets have no reason to rush back the man they hope is their franchise quarterback in a season where they’re playing for a higher draft pick. McCown has filled in for him terribly in the last two weeks but it’s unclear whether he’s physically able to go this week. Regardless, there’s only one way to bet the Jets, which is the same way we did with a winner last week.

    The Jets are currently offensively inept. They’re averaging 11.2 points per game in their last five and are averaging one touchdown per game over that stretch. For the season, New York gets to the red zone just 2.5 times per game score a touchdown on just 40.7 percent of those trips inside the 20. Tennessee, on the other hand, allows the fourth-fewest red-zone drives in the league at 2.8 per game and allow opponents to convert just 48.4 percent of those drives into touchdowns, which ranks fifth in the NFL. The Jets are bad, the matchup on Sunday is worse — take the Under on the Jets team total of 15.5.


    WATKINS OUT AGAIN?

    Chiefs receiver Sammy Watkins remained on the sideline for the second practice in a row with a foot injury that kept him out or limited in each of the last two games. The fact that Kansas City’s bye last week wasn’t enough time to get him back on the field is concerning and at this point he’s trending towards missing Week 13 as the Chiefs visit the Raiders. Watkins will miss a dream matchup against a Raiders defense ranked 30th in passing DVOA, but his injury means more targets for K.C.’s other studs on offense.

    Oakland is surprisingly tough against top receivers, ranked second in DVOA against an opponent’s WR1 and are giving up 7.4 passes and 60.4 yards per game. That still doesn’t convince us they can shut down Tyreek Hill but it, along with one other factor, shifts our attention to Travis Kelce. Where the Raiders are statistically good against WR1s, they are horrible against tight ends and rank dead last to the position in DVOA. Kelce has had 22 targets over the last two weeks — including 15 last game which he turned into 10-127-1 after Watkins was forced out of the game after the opening drive. He has also recorded five or more catches in 10 consecutive games, which is the second-longest streak in franchise history. Take the Over on his receptions total.


    PILING ON THE CHIEFS

    OK, we can’t help ourselves. Despite that DVOA stat listed above, we’re still backing Tyreek Hill to have a huge game on Sunday. With Watkins out or limited in the last two games, Hill has received an absurd 30.4 percent (14 targets) and 35.7 percent (10 targets) share of the targets from Patrick Mahomes and those translated into stat lines of 10-215-2 and 7-117-2. He’s absolutely on fire and now visits a Raiders team that is giving up 34.2 points per game at home. The road factor also plays for Hill as he has 42 catches for 739 yards and eight touchdowns on the road, as opposed to 23-367-3 at Arrowhead Stadium. There’s also the “Andy Reid off a bye” factor where he is 16-3 SU and 14-5 ATS, and while that doesn’t translate directly to Hill, it pretty much guarantees that the Chiefs aren’t going to put up a dud. Hill is the hottest receiver in the league right now and you’re not doing anything but backing him until further notice. Take the Over on his receiving yards total, even if it creeps up into the triple digits.


    BALDWIN BACK

    Seahawks receiver Doug Baldwin returned to the field on Thursday after missing Wednesday, though that was probably just a maintenance day as he appeared to make it through Week 12’s win at Carolina unscathed. Baldwin now has five, seven, and five catches over his last three, although he’s averaging just 43.3 receiving yards over that span. He also has a target share of 25 percent over the last three, which is well up from 18.2 percent over his previous five games. Helping Baldwin’s cause is the fact that Russell Wilson is playing much better as a passer of late, with 20 or more completions in three of his last four.

    On Sunday, the Seahawks host the 49ers and a defense that ranks 24th in passing DVOA. San Fran was lit up through the air by Jameis Winston last week for 312 yards where Mike Evans went 6-116-0 and Adam Humphries had 6-54-1 — we mention both as Baldwin runs routes both on the perimeter and in the slot. Seattle won’t pass the ball 38 times like Tampa Bay did last week but Wilson should be able to get near the 20-completion mark once again against a soft Niners pass defense. Assuming he does, we expect five or six completions for Baldwin so we’re backing the Over 4.5 on his receptions total.

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