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Thread: Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 11/27

  1. #1
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    Default Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 11/27

    Trends and Indexes

    Tuesday, November 27

    Good Luck on day #331 of 2018!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

    Betting lines on this weekend’s college football conference title games:

    — Pac-12: Washington -5.5 vs Utah

    — AAC: Central Florida -3 vs Memphis

    — Big X: Oklahoma -7.5 vs Texas

    — SEC: Alabama -13 vs Georgia

    — ACC: Clemson -26 vs Pittsburgh

    — Big 14: Ohio State -14.5 vs Northwestern


    **********

    Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but…….

    13) OK, first thing today, I’d like some feedback from you, the reader; whats your favorite Christmas song? I’ll post some of the more interesting answers I get sometime before Christmas.

    E-mail me at ffib13@gmail.com Thanks.

    12) Jacksonville Jaguars fired offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett Monday, then named Cody Kessler their new starting QB for their home game against the Colts this week.

    Previous starter Blake Bortles had started 70+ consecutive games for Jacksonville, but the team’s 7-game losing streak cost him his starting job, at least for now. During Bortles’ tenure as the Jaguars’ starting QB, Jacksonville fired three offensive coordinators.

    11) We all think its great to be a pro athlete or a celebrity, but can you imagine what it is like to be sitting at home Monday night watching the ballgame and while a Tennessee player is hurt. the TV geniuses decide to analyze whats wrong with the Jaguars.

    All of a sudden, it becomes a “bash Bortles” thing; we all know that QB’s get too much credit and too much blame, thats why they get paid a lot of cash. But it still has to be weird to be sitting at home and hear guys who may or may not know a lot critiquing your career.

    10) Aaron Rodgers lost his last eight road starts; it’s the longest road losing streak by a Packers QB since David Whitehurst lost nine straight from 1978-81.

    9) Bengals lost QB Andy Dalton (hand) for the season; backup Jeff Driskel will get his first NFL start Sunday at home against Denver. Driskel has thrown 36 passes in four NFL games; he was 17-29 passing in Sunday’s loss to the Browns.

    8) Texans 34, Titans 17— When did it become OK for football coaches to become reckless and go for it on 4th down whenever they feel like it? The NFL is a multi-billion dollar business, do things that are smart!!!

    Down 14-10 late in 2nd quarter, Tennessee had 4th-and-1 on the Houston 2-yard line. Instead of doing the smart thing, kicking a FG to make it 14-13, Titans not only go for it, they give the ball to a backup TE masquerading as a fullback, first time he ever carried the ball in the NFL.

    The play doesn’t work, Houston runs the next play 97 yards for a TD and school is out. There is a proper time to be conservative and/or “normal.” You do enough goofy things that don’t work, and your players will stop believing in you.

    7) Last week was the first time the Big East didn’t have anyone in college basketball’s top 25 since February, 1982. Villanova is back in the top 25 this week.

    6) Of the first 85 games ACC basketball teams played this month, only four of them were true road games, and North Carolina played two of those (Wofford, Elon).

    5) Atlanta Braves signed C Brian McCann to replace Kurt Suzuki and fill out their platoon at catcher with Tyler Flowers. Braves are also expected to sign 3B Josh Donaldson to a one-year deal, which Donaldson would use to get a longer deal at this time next year.

    4) Red Sox beat the Dodgers in the World Series; the difference in each player’s winning share and losing share of World Series money: $154,810.23.

    3) Random fact: 19,429 baseball players have made it to the major leagues.

    2) Ole Miss football team went 0-8 against the spread in conference games this season, the first SEC team to do that, since at least 1985. They’re fifth team since 2005 in any conference to go winless against the spread in league play.

    1) This week, Rhode Island became the 8th state to have legalized sports betting; New York hasn’t done a damn thing yet, while everyone goes over to New Jersey to bet, and spend money on food and Christmas shopping. Brilliant!!!
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-27-2018 at 12:06 PM.

  3. #3
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    Hot & Not Report

    Week of November 26th

    Who's Hot

    Look to the best teams in the East for 'Overs' – Toronto, Milwaukee, Philly a combined 43-19 O/U


    For years in the NBA there has been the general notion that if you want to see high-scoring games it's better to watch the majority of the teams out West. Golden State has led the charge in that regard the past half-decade given their ability to score, but teams in the East have always been saddled with the idea that defensive basketball comes first there. Whether that's been a growing “stereotype” since the days of Larry Bird's physical Boston Celtics teams vs. Magic's “Showtime” L.A Lakers, I don't really know, but in 2018-19, that idea has been completely flipped on it's head.

    The top three teams in the East right now (Toronto, Milwaukee, Philadelphia) are the only three teams in the entire NBA with 14 or more 'overs' cashed so far. All three of these teams understand that they've got a distinct talent advantage on the floor on most nights, and like the Warriors of year's past, are simply running and gunning to outscore their foes, assuming they won't be able to keep up. Given that those three teams are the only three in the East with more than 11 SU wins to enter the week, that strategy appears to be working quite well.

    What is still surprising though is the idea that the totals for Raptors, Sixers, or Bucks games still haven't really caught up to them. Even in today's NBA when a total of 215 is like the new baseline (when it was 204 or so just a few years ago), these three leaders in the East continue to surpass their numbers at a near 70% clip. When two of those three teams have squared off against one another, the 'over' is a perfect 3-0 so far, and that's with all three of those totals closing at least in the low 220's.

    Now chances are the numbers for these totals will start to catch up to these three teams soon and more 'unders' will start to hit, and it begins for Milwaukee on Monday night. Their road game in Charlotte currently has a total of 234, but with about 70% of the action already on the high side, it appears many are going to ride with this trend as long as they can.

    Who's Not

    The Boston Celtics – League Worst 7-13 ATS


    While the dysfunction out in Golden State dominates the media airwaves, it's the struggles of the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference that probably aren't getting the publicity that they should. Big things were expected from the Celtics this year after losing in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals last spring, knowing that stars like Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward would be back and healthy for this campaign. But this Celtics squad is just a .500 team through 20 games, and no team in the entire league as a worse ATS record than Boston at 35%.

    Boston takes the court on Monday as they visit New Orleans, and the fact that this point spread has flipped from opening at Boston -1 to New Orleans -2 currently probably tells you all you need to know about how the betting market currently views this Celtics team. Some of that move might be injury related on both sides, but bettors are more likely to have been jilted by backing the Celtics at least once this year, sentiment is finally starting to significantly go against this Boston team. Twenty games may not be quite enough to really establish the old “they are who we thought they are” mantra about this Celtics unit, but it's still a 1/4 of the way through the year and Boston – a team one win away from the Finals last year without their two superstars – is still sitting at .500. There's got to come a point when the markets start to view this Celtics team as one that their current record shows, and maybe we've already reached that point.

    However, as I touched on earlier with the thought that some 'unders' are coming for Raptors/Bucks/Sixers games, it may not be long until we see this Celtics team start cashing ticket after ticket. There is no question that November has not been kind to the Celtics (3-9 ATS), but two of those three ATS victories did come against current division leaders in the East (Toronto, Milwaukee) and that suggests that this Celtics team simply has a tough time “getting up” for many of these early season games to win by a significant margin.

    That's no different than what we've seen from teams like Cleveland or Golden State in recent years, when playoff success tends to further the mindset that it's all about being at your best from about the All-Star break and beyond. The NBA season is a long and grinding one, and with the Celtics still showing they can beat the best of the best within their conference, I'd be willing to bet that this team will be fine long-term.

    It may not happen this week or next, but Boston will start to turn their SU and ATS record around when a little more urgency kicks in. When that becomes the case remains to be seen, but when betting markets are so heavily influenced by recent results, the spreads for Boston in the foreseeable future could end up presenting quite a bit of value for “Bet ON” scenarios.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-27-2018 at 12:07 PM.

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    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Tuesday, November 27


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    NEW YORK (7 - 14) at DETROIT (10 - 7) - 11/27/2018, 7:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DETROIT is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home games against Atlantic division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DETROIT is 4-3 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
    DETROIT is 5-2 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    ATLANTA (4 - 16) at MIAMI (7 - 12) - 11/27/2018, 7:35 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MIAMI is 5-3 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
    MIAMI is 5-4 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    TORONTO (17 - 4) at MEMPHIS (12 - 7) - 11/27/2018, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TORONTO is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TORONTO is 4-0 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
    TORONTO is 3-1 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    INDIANA (12 - 8) at PHOENIX (4 - 15) - 11/27/2018, 9:05 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    INDIANA is 3-1 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
    INDIANA is 3-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    LA LAKERS (11 - 8) at DENVER (13 - 7) - 11/27/2018, 9:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DENVER is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games against Pacific division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DENVER is 4-4 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
    DENVER is 4-4 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Tuesday, November 27


    Knicks won last three games, covered last four; NY is 4-8 on road, 6-5 as AU. Five of their last seven games went over. Detroit won six of its last eight games; they’re 6-3 at home, 2-4 as HF. Pistons’ last four games went over. Pistons won their last three games with New York, by 6-3-4 points; Knicks are 1-3 vs spread in last four visits to the Motor City. Last three series games went over the total.

    Miami lost seven of its last nine games; they’re 4-5 on road, 2-2 vs spread as AF. Four of their last five games stayed under. Atlanta snapped a 10-game skid Sunday; they’re 3-7 at home, 3-6 as HU. Three of their last four games went over the total. Heat won five of last seven games with the Hawks; they’re 4-2 vs spread in last six visits here. Six of last nine series games stayed under.

    Toronto won its last five games, scoring 124+ points in last three; Raptors are 8-2 on road, 3-3-1 as AF. Toronto’s last three games went over the total. Memphis lost its last two games after a 7-1 run; Grizzlies are 7-2 at home, 1-1 as HU. Under is 5-2 in their last seven home games. Raptors won eight of last ten games with the Grizzlies; they’re 3-1-1 vs spread in last five visits to Memphis. Seven of last nine Memphis games stayed under the total.

    Pacers won four of their last six games; they’re 6-4 on road, 3-1 vs spread as AF. Indiana’s last four games went over total. Phoenix lost eight of its last ten games; they’re 3-6 at home, 5-4 as HU. Six of their last seven games went over. Indiana won five of its last six games with the Suns; they’re 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to the desert. Four of last five series games stayed under total.

    Lakers won seven of last nine games; they’re 5-4 on road, 2-3 as AU. 10 of their last 12 games stayed under the total. Denver won/covered its last three games; they’re 8-3 at home, 6-4 as HF. Nuggets’ last four games stayed under. Home side won last seven Laker-Nugget games; Lakers are 0-4 vs spread in its last four trips to Denver. Over is 7-2-1 in last ten series games.




    NBA

    Tuesday, November 27


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    New York Knicks
    New York is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    New York is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of New York's last 7 games
    New York is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of New York's last 6 games on the road
    New York is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New York's last 6 games when playing Detroit
    New York is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Detroit
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New York's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
    The total has gone UNDER in 13 of New York's last 19 games when playing on the road against Detroit
    Detroit Pistons
    Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
    Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing New York
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing New York
    Detroit is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against New York
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing at home against New York
    The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Detroit's last 19 games when playing at home against New York

    Atlanta Hawks
    Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Atlanta is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games
    Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
    Atlanta is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Miami
    Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Atlanta's last 15 games when playing Miami
    Atlanta is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
    Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing on the road against Miami
    Miami Heat
    Miami is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
    Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Miami's last 15 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
    Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
    Miami is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Atlanta
    Miami is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
    Miami is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Miami's last 15 games when playing Atlanta
    Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta

    Toronto Raptors
    Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 15 of Toronto's last 22 games
    Toronto is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Memphis
    Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Memphis
    The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Toronto's last 23 games when playing Memphis
    Toronto is 5-8-2 ATS in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Memphis
    Toronto is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Memphis
    The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Toronto's last 19 games when playing on the road against Memphis
    Memphis Grizzlies
    Memphis is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    Memphis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
    Memphis is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games at home
    Memphis is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 7 games at home
    Memphis is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Toronto
    Memphis is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
    The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Memphis's last 23 games when playing Toronto
    Memphis is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
    Memphis is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Toronto
    The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Memphis's last 19 games when playing at home against Toronto

    Los Angeles Lakers
    LA Lakers is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Lakers's last 12 games
    LA Lakers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Lakers's last 5 games on the road
    LA Lakers is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games when playing Denver
    LA Lakers is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games when playing Denver
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of LA Lakers's last 13 games when playing Denver
    LA Lakers is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
    LA Lakers is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
    Denver Nuggets
    Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Denver is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
    Denver is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games at home
    Denver is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games at home
    Denver is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games when playing LA Lakers
    Denver is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games when playing LA Lakers
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Denver's last 13 games when playing LA Lakers
    Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
    Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Lakers

    Indiana Pacers
    Indiana is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games
    Indiana is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Indiana is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games on the road
    Indiana is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Phoenix
    Indiana is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Phoenix
    Indiana is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Phoenix
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing Phoenix
    Indiana is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
    Indiana is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
    Indiana is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indiana's last 9 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
    Phoenix Suns
    Phoenix is 3-15 SU in its last 18 games
    Phoenix is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Phoenix is 4-20 SU in its last 24 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Phoenix's last 7 games at home
    Phoenix is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Indiana
    Phoenix is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indiana
    Phoenix is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indiana
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing Indiana
    Phoenix is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Indiana
    Phoenix is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Indiana
    Phoenix is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Indiana
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Phoenix's last 9 games when playing at home against Indiana


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-27-2018 at 12:08 PM.

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    NBA
    Dunkel

    Tuesday, November 27



    New York @ Detroit

    Game 501-502
    November 27, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    New York
    110.766
    Detroit
    124.763
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Detroit
    by 14
    224
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Detroit
    by 7
    220 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Detroit
    (-7); Over

    Atlanta @ Miami


    Game 503-504
    November 27, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Atlanta
    103.226
    Miami
    117.827
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Miami
    by 14 1/2
    226
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Miami
    by 7
    221
    Dunkel Pick:
    Miami
    (-7); Over

    Toronto @ Memphis


    Game 503-504
    November 27, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Toronto
    128.569
    Memphis
    114.807
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Toronto
    by 14
    214
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Toronto
    by 3 1/2
    205
    Dunkel Pick:
    Toronto
    (-3 1/2); Over

    Indiana @ Phoenix


    Game 507-508
    November 27, 2018 @ 9:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Indiana
    121.062
    Phoenix
    112.500
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Indiana
    by 8 1/2
    222
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Indiana
    by 2 1/2
    212 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Indiana
    (-2 1/2); Over

    LA Lakers @ Denver


    Game 509-510
    November 27, 2018 @ 9:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Lakers
    123.311
    Denver
    119.544
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Lakers
    by 4
    212
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Denver
    by 4
    217
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Lakers
    (+4); Under
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-27-2018 at 12:09 PM.

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