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Thread: NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (Thur. Nov. 15 - Mon. Nov. 19)

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    Default NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (Thur. Nov. 15 - Mon. Nov. 19)



    NFL Trends and Indexes

    Thursday. November 15 - Monday. November 19

    Additional trends and information will be added as available.

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Betting Recap - Week 10
    Joe Williams

    Overall Notes

    National Football League Week 10 Results
    Wager Favorites-Underdogs
    Straight Up 8-5
    Against the Spread 5-7-1

    Wager Home-Away
    Straight Up 8-5
    Against the Spread 5-7-1

    Wager Totals (O/U)
    Over-Under 6-7

    National Football League Year-to-Date Results
    Wager Favorites-Underdogs
    Straight Up 94-51-2
    Against the Spread 67-77-3

    Wager Home-Away
    Straight Up 86-59-2
    Against the Spread 69-75-3

    Wager Totals (O/U)
    Over-Under 72-75

    The largest underdogs to win straight up
    Cowboys (+7.5, ML +300) at Eagles, 27-20
    Bills (+7, ML +250) at Jets, 41-10
    Titans (+6.5, ML +240) vs. Patriots, 34-10
    Browns (+5.5, ML +210) vs. Falcons, 28-16

    The largest favorite to cover
    Packers (-12.5) vs. Dolphins, 31-12
    Chargers (-10.5) at Raiders, 20-6
    Bears (-7) vs. Lions, 34-22
    Saints (-6) at Bengals, 51-14

    Titanic Win

    -- The Tennessee Titans upended the New England Patriots by a 34-10 score in Nashville in one of the most surprising results of the weekend. Head coach Mike Vrabel got the best of the master, his former boss Bill Belichick, while QB Tom Brady and the offense looked very ordinary. It doesn't help that TE Rob Gronkowski has been sidelined, but WR Julian Edelman and WR Josh Gordon are playmakers, and RB James White is healthy. The Patriots defense just couldn't stop anyone. The Titans improved to 3-0 ATS over the past three, and 6-2 ATS across the past eight. It was a tremendous difference from their last home game back on Oct. 14 when they were blanked by the Baltimore Ravens 21-0 while QB Marcus Mariota was sacked 11 times in that one.

    Charged Up

    -- The Los Angeles Chargers have won six in a row and appear to be in a good place. They're flying under the radar out west, playing in the shadows of the Los Angeles Rams for some reason, perhaps because they play in a larger stadium? It's hard to understand. The Bolts are a good team, but not many are talking about them. They're 4-1 ATS over the past five outings while the 'under' is also 4-1 during the span, so there is plenty of opportunity to make money off of the Bolts, too. They're also 3-0 SU/ATS in the past three road contests.

    Total Recall

    -- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had a strange result on Sunday. They lost 16-3 against the Washington Redskins, which isn't terribly shocking since the 'Skins are in first place in the NFC East. However, even with their quarterback turnstile, they had scored 24 or more points in seven of their first eight games and the 'over' was a league-best 7-1. The three points they scored was shocking, as was the 16 points they yielded. That was also a season low.

    -- On Thursday night, the Carolina Panthers-Pittsburgh Steelers (51) connected easily. There were 21 points on the board in the first five minutes, and it was all downhill from there. In fact, eventually the Steelers ended up taking care of the over themselves. Speaking of doing it all by themselves, the Buffalo Bills also took care of the 'over' (37.5) themselves in a 41-10 victory on the road against the New York Jets. Not many saw that coming in a game which featured QB Matt Barkley started for the Bills and QB Josh McCown starting for the Jets.

    -- The lowest total on the board was that Bills-Jets game. In fact, that was the only game on the board with a total under 44.5. The Detroit Lions-Chicago Bears (44.5) was the second-lowest game on the board and it also hit the over, as did the third-lowest total, the Dallas Cowboys-Philadelphia Eagles (45.5) game also hit in the final four minutes.

    -- On the flip side, three of the five games with a total over 50 points saw the 'over' hit, although the Chargers-Raiders (50.5) game never was close to hitting, not was the 'Skins-Bucs (51) contest.

    -- The 'over' went 2-0 in the two primetime games in Week 10, with the Monday night game between the New York Giants-San Francisco 49ers (45) still pending. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 15-15 (50.0%). The 'under' has cashed in seven of the past nine battles on Sunday Night Football, although the Cowboys-Eagles game snapped a nice trend.

    Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

    In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

    In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

    In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

    Injury Report

    -- Detroit Lions WR Marvin Jones (knee) left early due to a knee issue and he was unable to return.

    -- Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp (knee) is feared to have suffered a torn ACL in the team's win over the Seahawks. He will have an MRI on Monday to confirm.

    -- New England Patriots WR Julian Edelman (ankle) checked out early due to an ankle injury, while TE Dwayne Allen (knee) also left and didn't return.

    Looking Ahead

    -- The Bengals and Ravens will square off in Charm City on Sunday. Baltimore is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 against AFC foes, and 4-1 ATS in the past five against divisional foes. However, they're 0-4 ATS in the past four overall. The Ravens return after a bye, and they're 8-3 ATS in the past 11 after a week off. However, they're 1-4 ATS in the past five inside the division and 2-6 ATS in the past eight home games against a team with a winning road mark. The Bengals are 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings, while the underdog is 7-2 ATS in the past nine in the series.

    -- The Titans look to stay hot against the Colts in Indianapolis in a key AFC South battle. Tennessee is 6-0 ATS in the past six inside the division, while going 6-2 ATS in the past eight overall. Indianapolis is 16-5-1 ATS in the past 22 at home against teams with a winning road record, but they're 2-7-1 ATS in the past 10 inside the South. The Titans are 3-10 ATS in the past 13 meetings in this series, and 1-6 ATS in the past seven trips to Indy. The under has connected in 10 of the past 13 meetings in Indianapolis, too.

    -- The Broncos and Chargers do battle in L.A. Denver is 1-3-1 ATS in the past five following a bye, while going 1-6 ATS in the past seven inside the division. They're also 3-11 ATS in the past 14 on the road. L.A. has posted a 5-1 ATS mark in the past six against losing teams, while going 5-2 ATS in the past seven inside the division. Lately, it's been all about the under. The under is 5-0 in the past meetings in San Diego/Los Angeles. The under is also 3-1-1 in Denver's past five divisional games, and 5-2-1 in their past eight overall. The under is 13-4 in L.A.'s past 17 against AFC foes, 5-2 in their past seven at home and 7-1 in the past eight inside the division, including Week 10 in Oakland.

    -- The Vikings and Bears square off on Sunday Night Football. Minnesota heads to the Windy city 8-3 ATS over the past 11 on the road. However, they're 2-7 ATS in the past nine following a bye and 1-5 ATS in the past six against a team with a winning mark. The Bears are 5-1 ATS in the past six at home, while going 3-1-1 ATS in the past five inside the division. The home team has hit in four of the past five in this series, and the Vikings are a dismal 3-12 ATS in the past 15 trips to Soldier Field.

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    Early bettors hit Rams' odds for NFL clash vs. Chiefs; total a whopping 64
    Patrick Everson

    Jared Goff and Todd Gurley have the Rams atop the NFC with a 9-1 SU mark. Although Los Angeles is just 4-6 ATS, early bettors moved the Rams from -1 to -2 against the Chiefs in Mexico City.

    The NFL game everybody has pointed to for weeks is finally on deck, and rightly so, it’s the finale of the Week 11 docket. We check in on the opening lines and early action for that contest and three other notable matchups, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

    Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Rams (-1)

    Kansas City is tied with Los Angeles for the best record in the league at 9-1 SU, and Andy Reid’s squad is solo No. 1 against the oddsmakers at 8-2 ATS. That said, the Chiefs couldn’t cover a healthy 16.5-point spread at home in Week 10, coasting past Arizona 26-14.

    The Rams bounced back from a loss at New Orleans – their first setback of the season – though they got a stern test in Week 10. Los Angeles (9-1 SU, 4-6 ATS) held off Seattle 36-31 as a 10-point home chalk.

    While pointspreads are generally the most notable betting element, the total in this clash of offensive titans is also a real eye-popper, in a neutral-site Monday night game at high altitude in Mexico City.

    “We opened the total at 64. No takers either way yet,” Murray said Sunday evening before addressing the spread. “We opened it Rams -1, and it’s been bet up to Rams -2. This game is a tossup to me. Don’t waste time punting on fourth-and-short or kicking field goals. These teams need touchdowns to keep pace with each other.”

    Jay Kornegay, executive vice president of operations for The SuperBook, said while the book doesn't keep such statistics, it is believed that 64 is a record-high opening total.

    Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3)

    Chicago is certainly one of the bigger surprises of the 2018-19 season, sitting atop the NFC North through 10 weeks. The Bears (6-3 SU and ATS) won and cashed their last three games, including Sunday’s 34-22 victory over Detroit as 7.5-point home favorites.

    Minnesota, which reached the NFC title game last season, can take over first place in the NFC North with a win at Soldier Field. And the Vikings (5-3-1 SU and ATS) are well-rested, coming off their bye after a 24-9 victory over Detroit as 4.5-point home faves in Week 9.

    “This game will go a long way to determining the NFC North,” Murray said. “I expect a lot of two-way write in this game. The number has moved slightly to Vikings +3 (-120), as there has been some early support for the ‘dog.”

    Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-7)

    New Orleans is the hottest team in the league, winning eight in a row SU while cashing seven consecutive times. The Saints (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) went to Cincinnati as 6-point favorites in Week 10 and put up a 50-plus burger in a 51-14 victory.

    Defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia wouldn’t make the playoffs if the season ended today. The Eagles (4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS) went off as 7.5-point home faves against Dallas in the Week 10 Sunday nighter, but lost outright 27-20.

    The SuperBook posted the Eagles-Saints line prior to Philly’s Sunday night loss, and per standard protocol took down the line during the Eagles-Cowboys game. The number will go back up Monday morning.

    “This line may go up,” Murray said, noting the Eagles’ setback might require a line adjustment. “The public will be happy to lay the points with New Orleans. The Saints have been very good to bettors recently.”

    Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)

    Green Bay also wouldn’t be in the playoffs with its .500 record to this point. The Packers (4-4-1 SU, 4-5 ATS) halted a 1-3 SU and ATS skid by dropping Miami 31-12 laying 11 points at home Sunday.

    Seattle also has work to do if it hopes to climb back into the postseason picture. The Seahawks (4-5 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) put up a valiant fight against the Los Angeles Rams, but came up just short in a 36-31 loss catching 10 points on the road.

    “Another really tough road game for the Packers, after they played at the Rams and at the Patriots” in recent weeks, Murray said. “There will be a lot of money both ways, but I anticipate the public mostly backing Green Bay.”
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-13-2018 at 01:31 PM.

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    Hot & Not Report

    Who's Hot

    AFC South teams not named Jacksonville (8-0-1 ATS last three games)


    Coming into the year it was not hard to argue with the notion that the Jacksonville Jaguars should have been the favorites to win the AFC South for the second straight year. Jacksonville had just gone to the AFC Championship game last January and outside of some suspect QB play from Blake Bortles, many figured the Jags defense would be able to erase many of those mistakes.

    However, it's been quite the opposite in that division of late, as the other three teams in the AFC South have been padding bankrolls rather significantly. Houston was off this past week, but the Texans have gone 3-0 ATS in their most recent three contests and are currently riding a six-game SU winning streak. Indianapolis is now 3-0 SU (2-0-1 ATS) in their last three games, while the Tennessee Titans are a two-point conversion in London away from being on a three-game SU winning streak themselves (3-0 ATS last three).

    Those results – combined with Jacksonville's declining play – have made the Jags nothing more than an afterthought for 2018, as this division is a three-horse race now between the Texans, Titans, and Colts. Indianapolis has got arguably the most favorable schedule of the bunch with games against Miami, Dallas, and the Giants left as their only non-division games, so everything is in front of the resurgent Andrew Luck and the Colts. Take care of business within their divisional games, and the Colts could end up making that “worst-to-first” jump when all is said and done.

    This week one of those three teams will see their strong runs come to an end as Tennessee and the Colts square off in Indy, but that may be the only thing that can cool off this group. All three of them have very winnable games left outside of division play, and until the point spreads start to catch up with the quality football we've seen from Houston, Tennessee, and Indy of late, they should probably be teams you should only consider betting ON when not playing one another.

    Who's Not

    AFC North teams not named Pittsburgh (1-8 ATS last three games)


    The year started with the Pittsburgh Steelers being the team from the AFC North that had to deal with all sorts of issues, but after Pittsburgh has rung off five straight wins (5-0 ATS), all that talk about their play on the field is long forgotten. Instead, it's the other three teams in Pittsburgh's division that have taken major steps backwards, culminating in the Cincinnati Bengals for some absurd reason protecting Marvin Lewis yet again by firing their DC instead.

    Cincinnati's blowout loss at home to the Saints on Sunday was utterly embarrassing, but it's not like it was a one-off either. The Bengals are on a 0-4 ATS run in their last four games as the 4-1 SU start they had this year looks like nothing but a mirage now.

    Cleveland managed to right the ship a bit by beating Atlanta on Sunday after they dealt with some tumultuous weeks and coaching changes as well, but the Browns are still on a 1-4 SU run in their past five games, going 1-2 ATS in their last three. Cleveland wasn't expected to do a whole lot this year, so there is some wiggle room with their results, but as just another AFC North squad that is seemingly bowing down to the Steelers this year, the Browns are a tough team to back right now.

    And then there is Baltimore. A team like the Bengals who got off to a hot start – especially defensively – but has since fallen off the map. Baltimore was spared any criticism this weekend thanks to being on a bye, but a 0-3 SU and ATS run (1-4 SU and ATS last five) has not been pretty. The Ravens will hope to get back on track by getting some revenge against the dysfunctional “Bungels” this weekend as one of those two teams will snap a losing streak.

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    Tech Trends - Week 11
    Bruce Marshall

    Thursday, Nov. 15

    GREEN BAY at SEATTLE (FOX/NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)

    Pack has lost six in a row SU on road and just 1-5 vs. line in those games. Pack “over” 13-5 since mid 2017.
    Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Seahawks, based on “totals” and team trends.


    Sunday, Nov. 18

    CAROLINA at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Panthers have covered after their last five SU losses. Lions no covers last three TY. Cam “over” 7-3 last ten.
    Tech Edge: Panthers and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


    DALLAS at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Dak was 5-2-1 vs. line away LY and 2-3 in 2018. Falcs “over” 4-1 at home TY, but Cowboys “under” 8-1 last nine away.
    Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Falcons, based on “totals” and team trends.


    CINCINNATI at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Both slumping (Cin 0-4 L4, Balt 0-3 L3) vs. spread. Bengals have covered 3 of last 4 at M&T Bank Stadium. Flacco 4-6 vs. spread last 10 at home. “Unders” 4-1 last five meetings, and Raves “under” 6-3 TY.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.


    PITTSBURGH at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Jags beat Steel twice LY at Heinz Field, but Jags no wins or covers last five TY, and Steel has won and covered 5 in row, Steel “over” 8-3 since late 2017.
    Tech Edge: Steelers and “over,” based on recent and “totals” trends.


    TENNESSEE at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Titans surprising 6-1 as dog this season! Prior to last season and no Luck, Titans just 1-6-1 last 8 in series. Colts unbeaten last 3 vs. line TY, and tossing out the non-Luck 2017 are “over” 16-10 last 26.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Colts and “over,” based on extended series and “totals” trends.


    HOUSTON at WASHINGTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Texans have won six straight and covered last three TY. If dog note Houston 6-2 in role with Deshaun at QB. But Skins 6-1 last 7 vs. line at home. Texans “under” 8-3 last 11, Jay Gruden “under” 10-3 last 13.
    Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Texans, if dog, based on “totals” and team trends.


    TAMPA BAY at NY GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Bucs 1-6 SU and vs. line last seven TY, but G-Men 0-4 vs. spread at MetLife. Bucs on 8-2 “over” run since late LY.
    Tech Edge: Slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.


    DENVER at L.A. CHARGERS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)

    Vance Joseph has covered last two away and 3 of last 4 overall, but still 3-9 vs. line away since LY and 5-15-1 last 21 on board. Broncs have only covered 1 of last 5 in series, and “under” 9-4 last 13 since late 2017. Bolts “under” 13-6 last 19.
    Tech Edge: Chargers and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


    OAKLAND at ARIZONA (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)

    Gruden 2-7 vs. line TY, and Raiders 4-16-3 last 23 on board since early LY. Oakland 1-9-2 last 12 vs. spread away from home. Cards actually 5-1-1 vs. line last seven TY. Raiders on 13-3 “under” run since mid 2017, Big Red “under” 9-4 last 13 since late 2017.
    Tech Edge: “Under” and Cards, based on “totals” and team trends.


    PHILADELPHIA at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

    Birds only 3-8-1 last 12 line reg, season but Pederson 12-7 as dog since 2016. Saints however have won last eight SU and covered last seven TY. Saints “over” 7-2 last nine at Superdome, Birds “over” last five as visitor.
    Tech Edge: “Over” and Saints, based on “totals” and team trends.


    MINNESOTA at CHICAGO (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)

    Vikes 3-1-2 last six on board TY, though Bears 5-1 vs. spread last six at Soldier Field. Minny “over” 7-3 last ten on road.
    Tech Edge: Slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.


    Monday, Nov. 19

    KANSAS CITY vs. L.A. RAMS (at Estadio Azteca, Mexico City) (ESPN, 8:25 p.m. ET)

    Chiefs 8-2 vs. line TY, and McVay just 4-8-1 last 13 vs. spread since late LY.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs, based on team trends.

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    An MRI has confirmed that Rams' WR Cooper Kupp suffered a torn ACL in Sunday's game vs. the Seahawks. Obviously, out for the season.

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    NFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 11


    Thursday. November 15

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    GREEN BAY (4 - 4 - 1) at SEATTLE (4 - 5) - 11/15/2018, 8:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    GREEN BAY is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    GREEN BAY is 2-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
    GREEN BAY is 2-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Sunday. November 18

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    CAROLINA (6 - 3) at DETROIT (3 - 6) - 11/18/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CAROLINA is 84-51 ATS (+27.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
    CAROLINA is 56-29 ATS (+24.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
    DETROIT is 139-176 ATS (-54.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    DETROIT is 47-70 ATS (-30.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
    CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    DALLAS (4 - 5) at ATLANTA (4 - 5) - 11/18/2018, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
    ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CINCINNATI (5 - 4) at BALTIMORE (4 - 5) - 11/18/2018, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CINCINNATI is 3-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
    CINCINNATI is 3-2 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    MINNESOTA (5 - 3 - 1) at CHICAGO (6 - 3) - 11/18/2018, 8:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MINNESOTA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
    CHICAGO is 50-78 ATS (-35.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CHICAGO is 2-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
    MINNESOTA is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    PHILADELPHIA (4 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (8 - 1) - 11/18/2018, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ORLEANS is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
    NEW ORLEANS is 28-48 ATS (-24.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    TENNESSEE (5 - 4) at INDIANAPOLIS (4 - 5) - 11/18/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TENNESSEE is 116-149 ATS (-47.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    INDIANAPOLIS is 2-2 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
    INDIANAPOLIS is 2-2 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    HOUSTON (6 - 3) at WASHINGTON (6 - 3) - 11/18/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
    WASHINGTON is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    TAMPA BAY (3 - 6) at NY GIANTS (2 - 7) - 11/18/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TAMPA BAY is 64-40 ATS (+20.0 Units) in November games since 1992.
    NY GIANTS are 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
    NY GIANTS are 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
    NY GIANTS are 38-64 ATS (-32.4 Units) in November games since 1992.
    NY GIANTS are 36-59 ATS (-28.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
    TAMPA BAY is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    DENVER (3 - 6) at LA CHARGERS (7 - 2) - 11/18/2018, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DENVER is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    DENVER is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    DENVER is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    DENVER is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
    DENVER is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    LA CHARGERS is 2-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
    LA CHARGERS is 2-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    OAKLAND (1 - 8) at ARIZONA (2 - 7) - 11/18/2018, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OAKLAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
    OAKLAND is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    OAKLAND is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    OAKLAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    OAKLAND is 38-81 ATS (-51.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 21-43 ATS (-26.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PITTSBURGH (6 - 2 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (3 - 6) - 11/18/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PITTSBURGH is 108-78 ATS (+22.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    JACKSONVILLE is 2-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
    JACKSONVILLE is 2-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Monday. November 19

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    KANSAS CITY (9 - 1) vs. LA RAMS (9 - 1) - 11/19/2018, 8:15 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    KANSAS CITY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
    KANSAS CITY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
    KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
    LA RAMS is 188-237 ATS (-72.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 188-237 ATS (-72.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 66-100 ATS (-44.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 68-101 ATS (-43.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 41-62 ATS (-27.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-13-2018 at 01:32 PM.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    74,716
    Credits
    202,227

    Default

    NFL

    Week 11


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Thursday. November 15

    Green Bay Packers
    Green Bay is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
    Green Bay is 4-7-1 SU in its last 12 games
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Green Bay's last 15 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games
    Green Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Green Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 13 of Green Bay's last 16 games on the road
    Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
    Green Bay is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Seattle
    Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
    Seattle Seahawks
    Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 8 games
    Seattle is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
    Seattle is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games at home
    Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
    Seattle is 2-7-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Green Bay
    Seattle is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Green Bay
    Seattle is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Green Bay
    Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay



    Sunday. November 18

    Cincinnati Bengals
    Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 10 games
    Cincinnati is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games on the road
    Cincinnati is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Baltimore
    Cincinnati is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Baltimore
    Cincinnati is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
    Baltimore Ravens
    Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games
    Baltimore is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Baltimore is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games at home
    Baltimore is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Cincinnati
    Baltimore is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Cincinnati
    Baltimore is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
    Baltimore is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Cincinnati


    Carolina Panthers
    Carolina is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 8 games
    Carolina is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Carolina is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
    Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Detroit
    Detroit Lions
    Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 10 games
    Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Detroit's last 13 games at home
    Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
    Detroit is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Carolina


    Tennessee Titans
    Tennessee is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
    Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    Tennessee is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Indianapolis
    Tennessee is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing Indianapolis
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
    Tennessee is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
    Tennessee is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Tennessee's last 13 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
    Indianapolis Colts
    Indianapolis is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Indianapolis is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games
    Indianapolis is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    Indianapolis is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Indianapolis's last 17 games at home
    Indianapolis is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Tennessee
    Indianapolis is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing Tennessee
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
    Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tennessee
    Indianapolis is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Tennessee
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 13 games when playing at home against Tennessee


    Dallas Cowboys
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Dallas's last 18 games
    Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Dallas's last 9 games on the road
    Dallas is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
    Dallas is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
    Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    Atlanta Falcons
    Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games
    Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home
    Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
    Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Dallas
    Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
    Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas


    Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    Tampa Bay is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
    Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games
    Tampa Bay is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
    Tampa Bay is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
    Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
    Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Tampa Bay's last 15 games when playing NY Giants
    Tampa Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
    Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
    New York Giants
    NY Giants is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of NY Giants's last 16 games
    NY Giants is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    NY Giants is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games at home
    NY Giants is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
    NY Giants is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of NY Giants's last 15 games when playing Tampa Bay
    NY Giants is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
    NY Giants is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay


    Houston Texans
    Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Houston is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games
    Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
    Houston is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
    Washington Redskins
    Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
    Washington is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
    Washington is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games at home


    Pittsburgh Steelers
    Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 11 games
    Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Pittsburgh is 9-0-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Pittsburgh's last 21 games on the road
    Pittsburgh is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Jacksonville
    Pittsburgh is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Jacksonville
    Pittsburgh is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
    Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
    Jacksonville Jaguars
    Jacksonville is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Jacksonville is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games at home
    Jacksonville is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Pittsburgh
    Jacksonville is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Pittsburgh
    Jacksonville is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
    Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Jacksonville's last 9 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh


    Denver Broncos
    Denver is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 games
    Denver is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games
    Denver is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
    Denver is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games on the road
    Denver is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
    Denver is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing LA Chargers
    Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
    Denver is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
    Los Angeles Chargers
    LA Chargers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    LA Chargers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
    LA Chargers is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games at home
    LA Chargers is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 7 games at home
    LA Chargers is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing Denver
    LA Chargers is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
    LA Chargers is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver


    Oakland Raiders
    Oakland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
    Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Oakland's last 16 games
    Oakland is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
    Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games on the road
    Oakland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing Arizona
    Arizona Cardinals
    Arizona is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    Arizona is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Arizona's last 13 games
    Arizona is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games at home
    Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing Oakland


    Philadelphia Eagles
    Philadelphia is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
    Philadelphia is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
    Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    Philadelphia is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games on the road
    Philadelphia is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing New Orleans
    Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing New Orleans
    Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 9 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
    New Orleans Saints
    New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans's last 12 games
    New Orleans is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games at home
    New Orleans is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Philadelphia
    New Orleans is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games when playing Philadelphia
    New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing at home against Philadelphia


    Minnesota Vikings
    Minnesota is 4-6-2 ATS in its last 12 games
    Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    Minnesota is 8-3-1 SU in its last 12 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
    Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing Chicago
    Minnesota is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Chicago
    Minnesota is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Chicago
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
    Chicago Bears
    Chicago is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
    Chicago is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games
    Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
    Chicago is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 9 games when playing Minnesota
    Chicago is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Minnesota
    Chicago is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Minnesota
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota



    Monday. November 19

    Kansas City Chiefs
    Kansas City is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
    Kansas City is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games
    Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
    Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
    Los Angeles Rams
    LA Rams is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    LA Rams is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
    LA Rams is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
    LA Rams is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-13-2018 at 01:32 PM.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    74,716
    Credits
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    Default

    NFL
    Dunkel

    Week 11



    Thursday. November 15

    Green Bay @ Seattle

    Game 307-308
    November 15, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Green Bay
    133.315
    Seattle
    132.734
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Green Bay
    by 1
    52
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Seattle
    by 2 1/2
    49
    Dunkel Pick:
    Green Bay
    (+2 1/2); Over


    Sunday, November 18

    Carolina @ Detroit


    Game 451-452
    November 18, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Carolina
    129.502
    Detroit
    133.512
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Detroit
    by 4
    47
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Carolina
    by 4
    51 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Detroit
    (+4); Under

    Dallas @ Atlanta


    Game 453-454
    November 18, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Dallas
    131.271
    Atlanta
    130.404
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Dallas
    by 1
    50
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Atlanta
    by 3 1/2
    47 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Dallas
    (+3 1/2); Over

    Cincinnati @ Baltimore


    Game 455-456
    November 18, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Cincinnati
    126.200
    Baltimore
    133.852
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Baltimore
    by 7 1/2
    42
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Baltimore
    by 4
    43 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Baltimore
    (-4); Under

    Minnesota @ Chicago


    Game 457-458
    November 18, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Minnesota
    135.154
    Chicago
    140.561
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Chicago
    by 5 1/2
    51
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Chicago
    by 2 1/2
    45
    Dunkel Pick:
    Chicago
    (-2 1/2); Over

    Philadelphia @ New Orleans


    Game 459-460
    November 18, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Philadelphia
    130.019
    New Orleans
    145.528
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New Orleans
    by 15 1/2
    64
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New Orleans
    by 8 1/2
    55
    Dunkel Pick:
    New Orleans
    (-8 1/2); Over

    Tennessee @ Indianapolis


    Game 461-462
    November 18, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Tennessee
    132.607
    Indianapolis
    136.800
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Indianapolis
    by 4
    58
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Indianapolis
    by 1 1/2
    48
    Dunkel Pick:
    Indianapolis
    (-1 1/2); Over

    Houston @ Washington


    Game 463-464
    November 18, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Houston
    133.976
    Washington
    128.515
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Houston
    by 5 1/2
    33
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Houston
    by 2 1/2
    42 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Houston
    (-2 1/2); Under

    Tampa Bay @ NY Giants


    Game 465-466
    November 18, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Tampa Bay
    129.084
    NY Giants
    121.245
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Tampa Bay
    by 8
    46
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    NY Giants
    by 2
    52
    Dunkel Pick:
    Tampa Bay
    (+2); Under

    Denver @ LA Chargers


    Game 467-468
    November 18, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Denver
    131.944
    LA Chargers
    136.904
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Chargers
    by 5
    36
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Chargers
    by 7 1/2
    46 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Denver
    (+7 1/2); Under

    Oakland @ Arizona


    Game 469-470
    November 18, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Oakland
    117.801
    Arizona
    123.965
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Arizona
    by 6
    37
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Arizona
    by 4
    40 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Arizona
    (-4); Under

    Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville


    Game 471-472
    November 18, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Pittsburgh
    143.510
    Jacksonville
    126.081
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 7 1/2
    45
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 5
    47 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Pittsburgh
    (-5); Under


    Monday, November 19

    Kansas City @ LA Rams


    Game 475-476
    November 19, 2018 @ 8:15 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Kansas City
    140.160
    LA Rams
    137.179
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Kansas City
    by 3
    65
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Rams
    by 4
    63 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Kansas City
    (+4); Over
    Last edited by Udog; 11-17-2018 at 11:26 PM.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    74,716
    Credits
    202,227

    Default

    NFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 11



    Thursday
    Packers (4-4-1) @ Seahawks (4-5)— Green Bay is 0-4 on the road this year, 1-1 as AU; they gave up 31 points in both their games on artificial turf this year- they’re 5-11 vs spread in last 16 games on carpet. Since ’16, Pack is 6-5 as a road dog. Seattle is 4-0 this year when it allows 17 or fewer points, 0-4 when allows more; they lost their last two home games. Home side won last seven series games; Packers lost last three visits here, by 3-20-6 points. This is 5th year in row these teams met, with Green Bay winning last three. Home teams are 8-2 in Thursday games this year; Packers are NFC West non-divisional favorites are 5-6 vs spread; NFC North AU are 4-2. Last three Packer games stayed under total; under is 6-2 in last eight Seattle games.

    Sunday
    Panthers (6-3) @ Lions (3-6)— Detroit lost its last three games, allowing 28-24-34 points; their OL allowed 16 sacks the last two games. Lions fired their special teams coach LW; they’re 2-2 at home, 4-11-1 vs spread in last 16 games as road underdogs. Carolina won three of its last four games; they’re 1-3 on road, losing 31-24 in only game on artificial turf. Since ’12, Panthers are 6-14-1 as road favorites. Carolina won six of eight meetings, beating Lions 27-24 LY; Panthers lost two of three visits here, with lone win in ’05. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 5-7, 2-2 on road; NFC North underdogs are 3-4. Last three Carolina games went over; over is 6-3 in Lions’ games this year.

    Cowboys (4-5) @ Falcons (4-5)— Dallas is 4-0 when it scores 20+ points, 0-5 when it doesn’t; they’re 1-4 on road, 2-3 as road underdogs- since ’09, they’re 26-16 as road dogs. Cowboys ran ball for 171 yards in Philly in their first game with a new OL coach. Atlanta allowed 20+ points in seven of last eight games; Falcons won three of last four games but lost in Cleveland Sunday- they’re 3-2 at home, 2-3 as HF. Under Quinn, Atlanta is 10-16 as home favorites. Atlanta won four of last six meetings, last of which was in ’15. Teams split last six visits here. NFC East non-divisional AU are 6-3 vs spread; NFC South HF are 3-5. Three of last four Cowboy games, six of last eight Atlanta games went over total.

    Bengals (5-4) @ Ravens (4-5)— Rumors are Harbaugh will get fired after season; Flacco’s (hip) status is a ?? here, rookie QB Jackson may start. Bengals fired their DC Monday, so these are two struggling teams fighting for survival. Bengals won first meeting 34-23 (+1) in Week 2; they were +3 in turnovers, had 13-yard edge in field position. Cincy is 9-2 in last 11 series games, winning three of last four visits here. Bengals lost last three of last four games, allowing 45-34-51 points in last three games (15 TD’s on last 31 drives); they allowed 8+ yards/pass attempt in last four games. Ravens lost four of last five games, losing last two home tilts. Baltimore is 13-3 vs spread in last 16 post-bye games. Under is 6-1 in Ravens’ last seven games.

    Vikings (5-3-1) @ Bears (6-3)— Battle for first place in NFC North. Minnesota won six of last seven series games, winning last three by 28-3-13 points; Vikings won two of last three visits here. Minnesota won four of its last five games; they’re 21-9 vs spread in last 30 games where spread was 3 or fewer points. Vikings are 2-1-1 on road; under Zimmer, they’re 13-8 as road underdogs, 1-1 this year. Chicago won/covered its last three games; they’re 4-1 at home, 4-0 as HF. Bears are +13 in turnovers this year, +6 in last two games, when they outscored opponents 54-7 in first half. Minnesota is 2-7 vs spread in its last nine post-bye games. Five of Bears’ last six games, three of four Minnesota road games went over total.

    Eagles (4-5) @ Saints (8-1)— New Orleans won its last eight games, covered last seven; Saints scored 45-51 points in last two games, averaging 9.6/9.8 yds/pass attempt. Saints are 3-1 at home this year, 2-2 as HF; they’re 11-18-1 vs spread in last 30 games as HF. Philly has only one takeaway in its last three games; Eagles lost four of last six games, are 1-2 in true road tilts, with losses by 6-3 points— this is first time this year Philly is an underdog. Under Pederson, Eagles are 5-5 as road dogs. Saints won three of last four series games; last one was in ’15. Philly lost three of last four visits here, last of which was in ’12. NFC East non-divisional AU are 6-3 vs spread; NFC South HF are 3-5. Over is 3-1 in Saints’ home games.

    Titans (5-4) @ Colts (4-5)— Titans are 2-0 since their bye, scoring 28-34 points in wins over Cowboys/Patriots- they shut both teams out in 2nd half. Tennessee is 2-2 in true road games, 2-0 as AU; they’ve run ball for 146.3 ypg in last three games, which takes heat off their defense. Tennessee swept series 36-22/20-16 LY, after having lost 16 of previous 17 against the Colts; Titans lost nine of last ten visits here, winning 20-16 LY. Colts won last three games after a 1-5 start, but three teams they beat are combined 7-21. Indy is 2-2 at home, 1-2-1 as HF; they’re 13-11-2 vs spread in last 26 games as HF. Five of last six Indy games went over the total; six of last eight Titans tilts stayed under.

    Texans (6-3) @ Redskins (6-3)— Washington is 6-0 when they allow or fewer points, 0-3 when they don’t- they allowed 21-43-38 points in their losses. Redskins 3-2 at home, 1-0 as HU; under Gruden, Skins are 8-8 as home underdogs. Washington is +10 in turnovers in its last five games (12-2). Houston is first team since 1970 to win six games in row after an 0-3 start; they’re 3-2 on road, winning by 3-13-3 points. Texans covered seven of their last eight post-bye games. Houston won last two series games 30-27ot/17-6 after losing first two; teams split two meetings here. AFC South non-divisional AF are 2-3 vs spread; NFC East underdogs are 9-5, 3-2 at home. Four of last five Texan games stayed under total;

    Buccaneers (3-6) @ Giants (2-7)— Short week for Giants after 27-23 win Monday night, their first win since Week 3. Big Blue is 0-4 at home this year, scoring 14.8 ppg (under 3-1). Tampa Bay lost three in row, six of last seven games; they’ve turned ball over 23 times in those seven games (-21). Bucs won their opener in Superdome, but lost last four road games, giving up 40.3 ppg; under Koetter, Tampa Bay is 9-8-1 as road underdogs, 2-3 this year. Sunday vs Redskins, Bucs scored on only one of five red zone drives, kicking a FG- they lost 16-3. Giants won five of last six series games, losing 28-25 to Tampa Bay LY; Bucs are 1-7 in series games played here, with lone win in ’97, last visit in ’12. Over is 7-2 in Buccaneer games this season.

    Broncos (3-6) @ Chargers (7-2)— Chargers won their last six games, covered four of last five; this is their first home game in six weeks. LA is 2-1 at home, 1-2 as HF; under Lynn, they’re 4-5 as home favorites. Denver lost six of last seven games after a 2-0 start; Broncos are 1-3 on road, losing by 13-18-7 points with a win at Arizona. Under Joseph, Denver is 1-6 as a road underdog. Home side won last five series games; Denver lost 21-13/21-0 in last two series games in SoCal. Broncos won 11 of last 14 series games, but split last four. Four of last five Charger games, six of last eight Denver games stayed under total. Denver is 11-3 vs spread in its last 14 post-bye games. Only teams to beat Chargers this year are Chiefs/Rams, both 9-1 teams.

    Raiders (1-8) @ Cardinals (2-7)— Arizona is 1-4 at home this year, beating 49ers 18-15 in last home game; Redbirds are 5-2 vs spread in their last seven games- they’re 7-12 in last 19 games as home favorites. Cardinals are -8 in turnovers in their last three games. Oakland lost its last five games (0-5 vs spread); they’re 0-4 in true road games, 1-3 as road underdogs; they’re 2-8-1 in last 11 games when getting points on road. Raiders have only two takeaways in their last five games. Cardinals won last two meetings, by 1-11 points; Raiders won two of three visits to Arizona. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 5-7 vs spread; NFC West favorites are 5-6. Under is 6-3 in Arizona games, 4-1 in last five Oakland games.

    Steelers (6-2-1) @ Jaguars (3-6)— Pittsburgh won/covered its last five games, scoring 35.4 ppg; Steelers are 3-0-1 on road with wins by 3-7-7 points. 12-11 in last 23 games as road favorites. Jaguars lost their last five games (0-4-1 vs spread); they were outscored 93-19 in first half of those games. Jags scored 20+ points LW for first time since Week 4; they’re 2-2 at home this year, losing by 3-13 points- they’re 8-10 in last 18 games as home dogs. Jacksonville won twice at Heinz Field LY, 45-42 in playoffs after a 30-9 win during regular season; home side lost six of last seven series games. Steelers won four of last five visits here. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 8-4 vs spread, 2-1 on road; AFC South underdogs are 7-6, 3-1 at home.


    Monday
    Chiefs (9-1) @ Rams (9-1)— Total of 63.5 is highest-listed total in NFL history. Game was moved to LA because field in Mexico City is messed up. Kansas City won its last four games; LW was only 2nd time this year they scored less than 30 points, first time they averaged less than 7.6 yards/pass attempt. Rams are 5-0 SU at home[ they covered only one of last six games; they’ve given up 27+ points in five of last seven games. Former Chiefs’ CB Peters will be huge in this game, one way or other; he had rough day in Week 9 loss to Saints. Chiefs won last six series games; Rams’ last series win was 16-0 in ’94, last time they faced Montana. Rams practiced in Colorado all week, even after game was put back in LA. Under is 5-2 in Chiefs’ last seven games.
    Last edited by Udog; 11-14-2018 at 11:31 AM.

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    Opening Line Report - Week 11
    Joe Williams

    It's Week 11 of the National Football League regular season and we get the most highly anticipated game of the year, as well as a potential Super Bowl preview. And, the game is being played in Mexico City, of course. How disappointing is that for fans of the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams, that neither of these home fan bases get to see this marquee matchup in their home stadium?

    On the undercard, the Houston Texans and Washington Redskins is a sleeper game on the Sunday early window. It's a battle of first-place teams in the AFC South and NFC East. Who would have thought this would be an important battle earlier in the season? The Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints is also an interesting battle, albeit one of the teams being below .500. It's still the defending champs on the rope trying desperately to stay in the playoff chase.

    Thursday, Nov. 15

    Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5, 49)


    There has been very little movement on this game so far, with the Seahawks listed at -2 1/2 across all shops except for Treasure Island, as you can still catch the 'Hawks at -2. For a Thursday game, there has been very little movement on the total, too. The over/under is listed at 49 1/2 at most shops, with Atlantis as the outlier at 49.


    Sunday, Nov. 18

    Carolina Panthers (-4, 51) at Detroit Lions


    The Panthers were on the move last week, quietly sauntering into the Steel City as a very under-the-radar 6-2 record. Carolina had their doors blown off by the Pittsburgh Steelers, coughing up 52 points. That shouldn't be a problem against the Lions, a team struggling in all facets of the game.

    The money has been on the Panthers, perhaps since they looked so bad last time out and they have had a couple of extra days to prepare since last Thursday. The Stratosphere opened the line at -3 1/2, but it quickly moved up to -4 to get in line with most other shops. If you're loving the Panthers, you can still try Treasure Island, who had Carolina at -3 as of Monday afternoon.

    Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 47.5)

    The Cowboys are coming off a potential season-saving win on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles, while the Falcons had their doors blown off on the road by the lowly Cleveland Browns. Bettors are apparently feeling the 'Boys, down from -3 1/2 to -3 at Jerry's Nugget, while dropped from -4 1/2 to -3 1/2 at Westgate Superbook.

    Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-4, OFF)

    The underdog has connected in seven of the past nine in this series, while the Bengals have posted a 7-3 ATS in the past 10 in this series. The line is available offshore at Sportsbook.ag, opening at -3 1/2, bumping up to -4 1/2, and then back down to -4. It isn't available at most shops with the availability of QB Joe Flacco up in the air. The total is also off the board everywhere.

    Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans (-9, 54.5)

    The defending champs are on the ropes and heading down to the Crescent City with long odds. This line opened at Caesars/Harrah's at -7 1/2, quickly moving up to -8 1/2 during the course of the day on Monday. Westgate opened at -7 and quickly moved to -7 1/2, but if you are feeling the Saints you can still catch them at a good number.

    Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-2, 48)

    A couple of weeks ago this game didn't look terribly attractive, but the Titans have rattled off two impressive wins in a row, while the Colts are on a three-game heater. Tennessee heads into this one with a perfect 6-0 ATS mark over their past six inside the division, although they're just 19-42-2 ATS in the past 65 against AFC foes overall. The Colts are 2-7-1 ATS in their past 10 inside the division, but 16-5-1 ATS in the past 22 home games against teams with a winning road mark. TI opened this one at -1 1/2, moving up to 2.

    Many other shops opened this game at -3, and it's down to -2 1/2 or -2. People are liking the Titans early on, but you can expect money to pour in on the Colts at some point.

    Houston Texans (-3, 42.5) at Washington Redskins

    The line of this game has settled into the -3 neighborhood at most shops, although TI was offering it up at -2 1/2 as of late Monday afternoon if you have a early strong lean toward Houston. As far as the total, it has tumbled slightly from 43 to 42 1/2.

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (PK, 51)

    The Bucs have settled on QB Ryan Fitzpatrick on the starting job yet again this week, while the Giants are coming off a rare win on Monday night in San Francisco. The line bounced back and forth at most shops from Giants -1 to pick 'em. There is likely to be a little belief in the Giants after their win on Monday, but bettors might not be all-in since they still have just two wins and they're playing on a short week.

    Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-7, 46.5)

    After Week 10, the Bolts picked up another double-digit win on the road while continuing to fly under the radar in their own city, with the Rams garnering most of the headlines.

    This line has been a flat seven at all but one shop, TI, which is offering the Chargers at -6 1/2. Denver heads in just 2-6 ATS in the past eight against winning teams and 1-6 ATS in the past seven inside the division. The Bolts are 5-2 ATS in the past seven inside the division.

    Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals (-4, 40.5)

    The Raiders and Cardinals have each had some difficulty this season, and they'll be picking early in the 2019 NFL Draft. After giving the Kansas City Chiefs a pretty good shot last week, bettors are liking the Cards. Atlantis had the Cards -3 1/2, moving up to -4. The line toggled between -4, -3 1/2 and back up to -4 at Caesars, while if you like the Raiders check out TI, who has the line at -4 1/2.

    Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, 47.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

    The Steelers cannot seem to stop anyone on defense, although they're clicking on offense while getting past the Le'Veon Bell drama and just concentrating on what they have in house right now. The Jaguars have been a huge disappointment, opening strong, but internal problems and injuries have killed any early-season momentum.

    Westgate Superbook opened this game at -3 1/2, quickly shooting up to -5 1/2 in less than 24 hours. No one is feeling the Jags at home. The only place the line actually dropped was Atlantis, going from -6 to -5 1/2.

    Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3, 45.5)

    This NFC North battle has been flexed into the Sunday night game, and it should be a good black and blue battle. If you're feeling the Bears, check out Southpoint, as they're offering Chicago at -2 1/2. TI opened it up at just -1 1/2, slowly moving to -2. You can expect plenty of movement on this one.


    Monday, Nov. 19

    Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 63.5)


    The Chiefs and Rams currently has a total higher than any line, since lines have been tracked, in the history of the NFL. Vegas is expecting a shootout, or tiroteo if you like since it's in Mexico.

    The total actually opened at 64 at Westgate and fell slightly to 63 1/2 to get in line with most other shops. They also opened the Rams at just -1, quickly moving up to -2 1/2 during the course of 20 hours. As of Monday night, most everywhere had the Rams at that line. However, this game is likely to see a ton of movement since it's a marquee game on a Monday night. Expect a lot of attention and perhaps the largest handle of the season for any one game.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-14-2018 at 03:18 AM.

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    By: Brandon DuBreuil


    RAMS-CHIEFS MOVED TO LA

    The NFL made a major announcement Tuesday, moving the Rams-Chiefs game set for Monday night out of Mexico City due to poor field conditions at Azteca Stadium. The game was originally a Rams home game, so it has been moved back to L.A. Upon announcement, the line moved from Rams -2.5 to -3.5, while the total jumped from 61.5 to 63.5. Most sportsbooks have voided any bets placed before the announcement, so be sure to check with yours if you had placed a bet on an early market.

    At 63.5, this is the highest total in NFL history. Prior to the announcement, the Under would’ve been a great play as footing would have been a major issue for the skill players involved. But now the game will be played at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum where the Rams are averaging 34.4 points per game. As for the Chiefs? Well, they’re tops in the NFL in road scoring at 36.8 points per game. At 63.5, backing the Over might sound daunting but there have been 14 instances of totals of 58 or more in the history of the NFL and 11 of those went Over. Jump on the Over before it gets higher and get ready for some fireworks on Monday Night Football.

    LE’VEON WILL NOT BE THE BELL COW

    Le’Veon Bell did not report to the Pittsburgh Steelers by Tuesday’s 4 p.m. ET deadline, making it official that he will not play football in 2018. The 26-year-old forfeits $14.54 million for the season and should become a free agent in the offseason (although the Steelers could theoretically tag him again). It’s great news for James Conner backers as he will remain Pittsburgh’s bell cow back for the remainder of the season.

    Conner left Pittsburgh’s Week 10 blowout win over Carolina early, but it was likely precautionary and he is expected to be at full speed this week at Jacksonville. Ranked seventh in rushing DVOA, the Jaguars aren’t a great matchup on paper but it's a nice spot for Conner as a six-point road favorite. It’s also fair to wonder what Jacksonville’s motivation will be like for the rest of the season as the team that entered the year as an AFC favorite sits at 3-6 and will likely miss the playoffs. Nevertheless, there’s no denying the talent the Jags have on the defensive side of the ball and for that reason, we’re staying away from Conner’s rushing totals and instead back him to score a touchdown at any time.


    AARON LOVES AARON

    If you’ve been reading this article on a daily basis, you know that we love Packers running back Aaron Jones and we’re an even bigger fan now that he’s hit winning bets for us in back-to-back weeks. Apparently, we’re not the only ones who think Jones is a stud as Aaron Rodgers had this to say about him: "He’s a great player. We just need to continue to give him more opportunities."

    Jones has been getting more carries over the past three games with 12, 14, and 15 carries in Weeks 8, 9, and 10, respectively, and he has delivered with rushing performances of 86, 75, and 145 yards. But the most telling statistic about how good Jones has been is that he is averaging a league-high 6.8 yards per attempt, 0.6 yards more than second-place Nick Chubb. This week, Jones and the Packers head to Seattle for Thursday Night Football as a three-point underdog. Seattle has the 10th overall defense in DVOA but slips to 20th when you isolate rush defense. In the past two weeks, the Seahawks have had Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon run all over them for 120 yards and 113 yards, respectively, and we expect Jones to push towards the 100-yard plateau as well. Take the Over 74.5 on his rushing yards total.


    DIGGS SAYS HE’S READY

    Minnesota receiver Stefon Diggs said, “I know I will play” when asked about Week 11 and also mentioned that he practiced on Monday. Diggs injured his ribs in the loss to New Orleans in Week 8, sat out Week 9, and had the bye last week to heal in time for Sunday night’s NFC North showdown in Chicago.

    Diggs is having a fantastic season and we normally wouldn’t think about fading him, but we have no other choice this week. He returns to face a Bears defense that ranks first in overall DVOA and fourth against the pass. Then there’s the weather: a night game in mid-November in Chicago where the early forecast calls for temperatures in the 20s. Catching a football is a lot harder in the cold and, despite its geographical location, Minnesota is now a dome team. We’ll be grabbing the Under on Diggs’ receiving yards total when the market opens later in the week.


    KEKE, DO YOU LOVE HIM?

    Houston coach Bill O’Brien made it sound like receiver Keke Coutee will suit up on Sunday, saying “I think Keke is trending upwards. I think Keke’s headed in the right direction." Coutee missed the Texans’ two games prior to their bye last week with a hamstring injury but it sounds like he’ll be back on the field as Houston visits Washington on Sunday afternoon.

    Predicting Coutee’s usage for Sunday is extremely difficult for two reasons: One, Demaryius Thomas is now a Texan and two, Houston has made a concerted effort to run the ball over the last three weeks. Coutee will slide into his slot role but Washington hasn’t been overly susceptible to the position, holding Adam Humphries to just two catches a week ago and Mohamed Sanu to four catches two weeks ago in a game where Matt Ryan completed 26 passes. Week 11 is not a great spot for Coutee and with a soft-tissue injury, there’s always the added risk of re-injury. We’re going to fade him and take the Under on his receptions total.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-15-2018 at 02:49 AM.

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    Games to Watch - Week 11

    The top teams in each of the conferences are starting to pull away from the pack, but there are still plenty of teams below the top two spots in the AFC and NFC with a legitimate shot at a playoff spot.

    The final few weeks of the season will sort out the men from the boys, as those teams currently sitting on the edge will either step up or fade away. There are a lot of important games on the NFL Week 11 schedule, starting on Thursday night with a crucial NFC match-up.

    Let’s take a closer look at four games that should really be required viewing in Week 11.

    Green Bay Packers (+2½ +100) at Seattle Seahawks (-2½ -120)

    Both of these teams are currently sitting outside the playoffs looking in, but both are also close enough that a solid finish to the season could get them into the postseason. The Packers have been surprisingly average this season, thanks in large part to their inability to win on the road, where they are currently at 0-4. Ordinarily, that would mean trouble with a trip to Seattle, but the Seahawks are also a surprise, going just 1-2 in their own building this season. This is a crucial game for both teams and one that is likely to go down to the wire. I may change my mind in the next couple of days, but right now I am on the Packers.

    Pittsburgh Steelers (-5½) at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5½)

    When the playoffs began last season, we all just sort of sat back and waited for the inevitable meeting between the Steelers and the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. That never panned out, though, as Jacksonville went into Heinz Field and came away with a stunning victory in the divisional round. The Steelers will be out looking for revenge this weekend, and given how they have been playing, it is going to be tough to bet against them. The Jags know that their season is likely done with a loss, so expect a fight, although one that they will ultimately lose.

    Philadelphia Eagles (+9 +115) at New Orleans Saints (-9 -105)

    Could this prove to be the week where we see a changing of the guard in the NFC? The defending Super Bowl champion Eagles are on the brink of elimination from playoff contention, while the New Orleans Saints are arguably the best that the conference has to offer. The Saints have been perfect since losing to Tampa Bay in Week 1 of the season, while the Eagles have struggled to find any sort of consistency, and they are now sitting at 4-5. Given the state of things in the conference, it’s not being to dramatic to suggest that a loss here could do them in. I like the Saints to get that win.

    Kansas City Chiefs (+2½) at Los Angeles Rams (-2½)

    After a slew of mediocre Monday night match-ups, we finally get an absolute beauty in Week 11. The Chiefs have the best record in the AFC, while the Rams are right up there in the NFC. Both of these teams are dynamic on the offensive side of the football, which may explain why the point total has been set at over 60 points for this one. We are in for a good old-fashioned slugfest here, as well as a game that may come down to who gets the ball last. I’m giving a slight edge to the Rams in a game that's expected to be played in Mexico City.

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    TNF - Packers at Seahawks
    Tony Mejia

    Green Bay at Seattle (-3, 49), 8:20 pm ET, FOX/NFLN

    The first meeting between Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson produced one of the NFL’s most memorable finishes. You remember the “Fail Mary,” right? Replacement refs butchered the call, Golden Tate was awarded a touchdown he didn’t deserve and the Packers went home losers of a game in which Rodgers was sacked eight times.

    The Packers star won his first visit to Seattle but comes into Thursday night’s crucial clash against the Seahawks 1-2 at Century Link Field, having also lost the 2014 season opener. Rodgers has posted wins in each of the past three seasons, but all of those meetings came at Lambeau Field.

    This latest matchup finds both perennial NFC title contenders on the outside looking in as far as making the playoffs is concerned. With this being the 10th game for both, the sense of urgency is ratcheted up as all excuses go out the window. It doesn’t matter that this is a short week for both or that this will be the fourth time each takes the field in a 20-day span. The winner gets to have a nice, hopeful Thanksgiving while the loser faces a miserable time since they’ll be a sub-.500 team facing must-wins the rest of the way.

    Green Bay has yet to win on the road this season, losing to heavyweights like the Rams and Patriots in addition to setbacks against the Redskins and Lions. The 12th Man has only witnessed a single Seahawks victory this season – way back in September against Dallas. Seattle came up short against the Rams and Chargers in games they were in all four quarters, but its feared homefield advantage has been neutralized of late.

    Dating back to November of last season, the Seahawks have won only two of seven home games. They fell 36-31 against the Rams on Sunday, coming up short on a comeback bid as Wilson tried to rally his team despite starting RB Chris Carson being scratched prior to kickoff.

    Wilson, who has thrown three touchdown passes in four of the past five games, ran for a season-best 92 yards in the loss, his highest total since Nov. 2014. Clearly, desperation has set in as he’s hit ‘whatever it takes’ mode since he’d rushed for just 118 yards over his first eight starts.

    Jared Goff and Todd Gurley dominated a new-look Seattle defense that surrendered a season-high 36 points, so they’ll be under pressure to turn things around with Rodgers coming into town fresh off his fifth consecutive game without throwing an interception.

    Despite still being hampered by a knee issue since being injured in Week 1, Rodgers ran a season-high six times in posting a 31-12 home win over the Dolphins that helped snap a two-game losing streak. His TD-to-INT ratio is 17-1, so it’s going to be difficult for the Seahawks to turn him over. Only Jared Goff has managed to pass for over 300 yards against Seattle’s defense over the past eight weeks, and they do rank seventh with 10 interceptions and eighth with six forced fumbles.

    The Packers will be facing the NFL’s top rushing offense at full strength since Carson is expected to return from the hip injury that sidelined him in L.A. Rookie Rashaad Penny and Mike Davis teamed with Wilson to try and effectively play keep-away from the Rams offense, giving them a chance and ultimately, helping score a backdoor cover despite the loss.

    Expect a heavy dose of the run since Pete Carroll knows enough that he doesn’t fully trust his defense to contain Rodgers and will want to control possession. Green Bay leads the NFL with 31 sacks and has DT Kenny Clark playing at an extremely high level, so the Seahawks will likely look to protect Wilson by riding the ground game so long as they remain within striking distance.

    Weather won’t be a factor on what’s expected to be a clear, 50-degree night in Seattle, so the offense should have solid conditions to work with. Read on for thoughts on the total, line movements, injury news, info on past meetings, props and next week’s betting numbers.

    Green Bay Packers
    Season win total: 10 (Over +100, Under -120)
    Odds to win NFC North: 6/1 to 13/4
    Odds to win NFC: 20/1 to 12/1
    Odds to win Super Bowl: 40/1 to 25/1

    Seattle Seahawks
    Season win total: 7.5 (Over -120, Under +100)
    Odds to win NFC West: OFF to OFF
    Odds to win NFC: 100/1 to 150/1
    Odds to win Super Bowl: 200 to 300/1

    LINE MOVEMENT

    The Seahawks were +280 to reach the playoffs in the prop available at Westgate before this season began while the Packers went off at -180. The Packers were 17-to-10 to win the NFC North, listed only behind the Vikings (11/10), while Seattle wasn 11/2, trailing the 49ers (7/2) and Rams (1/2), whose dominance has taken the NFC West off the board.

    The Packers were 6-to-1 to capture the NFC and 12-to-1 to win the Super Bowl when the season began. Seattle went off at 30/1 to win the NFC and 60/1 to prevail as champion, so odds are much more lucrative at the moment.

    As far as this matchup is concerned, the Seahawks were a 2-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced last week and opened at -2.5 before reaching the 3-point spread that was the consensus on Thursday morning.

    Seattle opened at -140 on the money line and is available at -145/150 at the moment. If you like the home 'dog outright, a payout on a Packers win will get you +120 to +135 depending on the shop.

    INJURY CONCERNS

    The Seahawks are the much healthier team, so if you're wondering why a team that's perceived to be superior in terms of current betting futures and preseason expectations is listed as the underdog, there's your answer. Only linebacker K.J. Wright is listed as doubtful, while corner Neiko Thorpe and safety Delano Hill are questionable. The list of players in doubt is far longer on Green Bay's side of things.

    Rodgers was one of a number of guys who skipped practice on Monday but he's good to go. The hope is that corner Bashaud Breeland will be able to play since CB Kevin King has been ruled out. LB Blake Martinez should be out there despite an ankle issue, but Nick Perry won't be due to a knee injury. Safety Kentrell Brice won't play either, while the offense will be without Rodgers' security blanket Randall Cobb. Tackles David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga, both dealing with knee issues, are expected to be out there protecting Rodgers.

    TOTAL TALK

    The ‘over/under’ on this matchup opened at 49 and the number has held steady as of Thursday morning. Weekly “Total Talk” writer Chris David of VegasInsider.com offered up his thoughts on this matchup:

    This isn’t an easy total to handicap and for viewing purposes I hope we finally get a tight game on Thursday as the last six outcomes have been decided by an average margin of 25.5 PPG. In the midweek game this season, we’ve watched the ‘over’ go 7-3 and the winning team is averaging 35.6 PPG.

    While another shootout is expected by the oddsmakers, I believe this game will fall ‘under’ the total for a variety of reasons. Seattle is a run-first team (152.2 YPG) and it’s coming off a 273-yard performance in a tight loss to the Rams. The ground-and-pound approach keeps runs the clock and it also helps give the defense rest. Most pundits point to Seattle’s unit (21.3 PPG) as a weakness and it’s certainly not on the same level as previous seasons but it’s proven to be decent statistically.

    Green Bay (24 PPG) still has issues on the defensive side of the ball and it’s been worse on the road (30.5 PPG) but you can argue that allowing 29 and 31 in their last two road trips to the Rams and Patriots respectively was an improvement. Seattle isn’t on the same level of those teams and I’d be surprised to see Green Bay allow 30-plus points on Thursday.

    I also believe the Packers will try to run the ball, especially after posting 195 on the ground in last week’s win albeit to the worst run defense in Miami. Knowing Green Bay hasn’t won back-to-back games this season and this is a must-win matchup, perhaps a run-first approach should be stressed.

    For our purposes, Green Bay has leaned slightly to the ‘over’ (5-4) this season but Seattle is one of eight teams in the NFL that have watched the ‘under’ go 6-3. These teams are familiar with one another, having played in each of the last four regular seasons and once in the playoffs. The ‘over’ has gone 3-2 in those games with and that includes a 2-0 mark in the contests played at CenturyLink Field.

    Along with leaning to the ‘under’ (49) in the game, I would also press the ‘under’ on the Team Total for both the Packers (23 ½) and Seahawks (25 ½) as well.

    RECENT MEETINGS (Green Bay 7-3 SU, 7-2-1 ATS last 10; UNDER 5-5)

    9/10/17 Green Bay 17-9 vs. Seattle (GB -2.5, 49.5)
    12/11/16 Green Bay 38-10 vs. Seattle (GB +3, 47)
    9/20/15 Green Bay 27-17 vs. Seattle (GB -3, 49)
    9/4/14 Seattle 36-16 vs. Green Bay (SEA -8.5, 45)
    9/24/12 Seattle 14-12 vs. Green Bay (SEA +3.5, 45.5)
    12/27/09 Green Bay 48-10 vs. Seattle (GB -13.5, 43.5)
    10/12/08 Green Bay 27-17 at Seattle (GB +1, 44.5)
    11/27/06 Seattle 34-24 vs. Green Bay (SEA -10, 42.5)
    1/1/06 Green Bay 23-17 vs. Seattle (GB -3, 40.5)
    10/5/03 Green Bay 35-13 vs. Seattle (GB -1, 45)

  15. #15
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    By: Brandon DuBreuil


    WILSON HAS FOUND HIS LEGS

    It’s Thursday! The NFL week officially gets underway tonight with a solid matchup as the Green Bay Packers visit the Seattle Seahawks, and as per tradition, we kick off the article with a prop bet (or two or three if you count yesterday’s suggestion of the Over for Aaron Jones’ rushing yards total of 74.5).

    If you’ve been watching the Seahawks over the past two weeks you’ve probably noticed that Russell Wilson is starting to look more like, well, Russell Wilson. The four-time Pro Bowler is at his best when he’s a dual threat and it looks like he might be starting to use his legs again.

    From Week 1 through Week 8, Wilson had rushed for a total of 118 yards with just 16.8 yards per game, well below his career average of 33.2. But then in Week 9 he ran for 41 yards on five carries and in Week 10 he gained 92 yards on nine carries. What did these two games have in common? The Seahawks got behind and had to play catch up — something that could very well happen again tonight against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Wilson’s rushing total for tonight is set at 24.5, which seems to be more reflective of his season total than what he has been doing lately. We think Wilson makes a few plays with his legs tonight and we’re backing the Over for his rushing total.


    OFFENSE TRENDING FOR TNF

    The total for tonight’s game is set relatively high at 48.5 but there are a few reasons to believe it’ll easily get up into the 50s. Let’s start with the Packers’ defense, which has been a completely different unit at home than on the road. At Lambeau, Green Bay is allowing just 18.8 points per game but on the road that number balloons to 30.5, fifth-worst in the NFL. The short week is also hurting the Packers’ defense as three starters were left behind in Wisconsin: linebacker Nick Perry, safety Kentrell Brice, and cornerback Kevin King.

    On the other sideline, Seattle’s Legion of Boom is long gone, especially at home where they are allowing 160.3 rushing yards per game, second-most in the NFL. The Seahawks are better against the pass by allowing just 228.3 passing yards per game but have been more susceptible of late, having allowed 8.2 yards per attempt over the last three games. Plus, it’s Aaron Rodgers in primetime. He isn't having the best statistical season of his career but we’re still not betting against him. Take the Over 48.5.


    JONES NOT PRACTICING

    Detroit receiver Marvin Jones did not practice on Wednesday after being forced from Sunday’s game against Chicago with a bone bruise in his knee. His status for Week 11 against Carolina is on the wrong side of questionable, especially with Detroit playing on Thanksgiving in Week 12. Jones has taken on a larger role with 15 targets in the two weeks since Golden Tate was traded, and if he can’t suit up on Sunday Matthew Stafford will be looking in Kenny Golladay’s direction.

    Golladay was also expected to absorb some of Tate’s production but it didn’t really happen until the fourth quarter of Sunday’s game against Chicago where he turned eight targets into three catches for 31 yards and a touchdown. This happened largely due to the fact that the Lions were down by a lot but that could happen again this week as a four-point home underdog. Assuming Jones can’t go on Sunday, Golladay is going to be a target monster and his usage alone will be worth backing. His opponent this week, the Carolina Panthers, have given up 300 or more passing yards in each of their past two road games. The second-year receiver is in a nice spot to possibly have one of the biggest days of his career on Sunday and we’re taking the Over on his receiving yards total.


    CROWDED BUCS BACKFIELD

    Tampa Bay running back Peyton Barber (ankle, shoulder) was limited in practice Wednesday but is expected to play in Week 11 at the Giants. The ankle injury has bothered him for a couple of weeks now while the shoulder seems to be a new ailment. Rookie running back Ronald Jones, meanwhile, returned to practice on a limited basis and is expected to play on Sunday after missing the past three games. Then there’s Jacquizz Rodgers, who is the healthiest of the bunch and has crept up over the 30 percent mark in snaps for each of the past four weeks. Quizz has worked his way into the third-down back role and is running 20.6 pass routes per game over his last three games.

    The Giants are not a terrible matchup for running backs with a defense that ranks 19th in rushing DVOA. But there are two big reasons to fade Barber on Sunday. First, he’s banged up and part of a three-man running back committee. Second, he’s averaging just 3.7 yards per carry, meaning he needs volume to put up big numbers. We don’t see Barber getting enough touches to do much on Sunday against the Giants so we’re taking the Under on his rushing yards total.


    OBJ ALL DAY

    There is a matchup we love in the Giants-Buccaneers game, however, with Odell Beckham Jr. primed to have a big afternoon. Beckham is trending regardless of who he plays with 6.8 catches for 105.4 yards per game and four total touchdowns over his last five. This week, he gets his best matchup of the season as Tampa Bay just can’t cover top receivers, allowing an average of 7.2 receptions to the opponent’s WR1 — and that average has actually gone down over the past two weeks as the opposing WR1s were Josh Doctson and Devin Funchess.

    Another reason to think OBJ is in for a big day is that this game is looking like a shootout. The total is set at 52, which isn’t absurdly high for the NFL this season but still a big number. But here’s the kicker: In Tampa Bay’s road games this season, the average total score is a whopping 70 and the opponent is averaging 40.2 points per game. We expect the Giants to be the latest team to have a big day at home against the Bucs and Beckham will lead the way. Take the Over on his receiving yards total and maybe have a look at the Over for the Total.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-15-2018 at 01:47 PM.

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