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Thread: CFL Trends and Indexes - Division Finals (Sun., Nov. 18)

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    Default CFL Trends and Indexes - Division Finals (Sun., Nov. 18)

    Trends and Indexes

    Sunday, November 18

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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  2. #2
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    CFL Betting Notes - Div Finals
    David Schwab

    This year’s CFL playoffs got underway on Sunday with a pair of matchups in the division semifinals. The East Division’s Hamilton Tiger-Cats made an early statement with a 48-8 rout of British Columbia as a crossover team from the West Division. Hamilton closed as a slight 1 ˝-point home favorite with the total going OVER 51 ˝ points.

    The favorite prevailed in the second game as well with Winnipeg going on the road to cover a two-point spread in a 23-18 victory against Saskatchewan as a home underdog. The total stayed UNDER 50 points in that West Division clash.

    Sunday, Nov. 18

    Hamilton Tiger-Cats (9-10 SU, 8-10-1 ATS) at Ottawa Redblacks (11-7 SU, 9-9 ATS)

    Point-spread: Ottawa -3
    Total: 53 ˝

    Game Overview

    Hamilton limped into the postseason with just two victories in its last seven games both straight-up and against the spread. This included a pair of losses to Ottawa (SU and ATS) in a late-season home-and-home matchup. The total went OVER 54 ˝ points in a 35-31 loss Ottawa on the road before staying UNDER 53 ˝ points in the Tiger-Cats 30-13 loss at home the following week as 4 ˝-point favorites. Hamilton also lost the first meeting at home 21-15 in late July as a six-point favorite against the RedBlacks.

    The most encouraging aspect of Sunday’s playoff win was the play of Hamilton’s defense, which kept BC off the board until the fourth quarter when the game was already out of hand. Jeremiah Masoli is the East Division’s nominee for Most Outstanding Player and he showed why with 259 yards passing and three touchdown throws in that game.

    Ottawa took a different path to winning the East this season with a 5-2 run in its last seven games both SU and ATS. The total stayed UNDER 47 ˝ points in a 24-9 victory against Toronto in the RedBlacks’ season finale as four-point home favorites and it stayed UNDER in six of their last nine games. They went 6-3 SU at home this season with a 4-5 record ATS.

    In order for Ottawa to get back to its second Grey Cup Championship in three seasons, its quarterback Trevor Harris is going to have to be at the top of his game. That was not always the case this season, but he did finish fourth on the list in total passing yards (5,116) while tossing 22 touchdowns against 11 interceptions. The RedBlacks averaged 25.8 points per game on offense to complement a defense that allowed an average of 23.3 PPG.

    Betting Trends

    -- The Tiger-Cats have gone 4-1-1 ATS in their last six playoff games and the total has gone OVER in six of their last seven division games.

    -- The RedBlacks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in the postseason and the total has stayed UNDER in 18 of their last 24 East Division games.

    -- Ottawa has an 8-3 edge ATS in the last 11 meetings and the total has gone OVER in six of the last seven meetings in Ottawa.

    Winnipeg Blue Bombers (11-8 SU, 11-7-1 ATS) at Calgary Stampeders (13-5 SU, 9-9 ATS)
    Point-spread: Calgary -4 ˝
    Total: 52

    Game Overview

    The Blue Bombers opened as two-point road underdogs for Sunday’s matchup against Saskatchewan, but an injury to the Roughriders’ quarterback Zach Collaros swung bettors the other way. Winnipeg finished the regular season with a 5-1 run in its last six games both SU and ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in five of its last seven games including the playoff win.

    This was the highest scoring offense in the CFL this season with an average of 30.6 PPG, but the Blue Bombers flourished on defense down the stretch with a points-allowed average of 17.2 in their last six regular season games. Matt Nichols took the majority of the snaps at quarterback in Sunday’s win and he completed 16-of-22 passing attempts for 169 yards and a score. Andrew Harris was the difference with 153 yards and a score running the ball.

    It is hard to know what to make of Calgary coming into this year’s playoffs. For the second season in a row, it stumbled down the stretch with three SU losses its last four games while going a costly 3-6 ATS over its final nine games of the year. The total stayed UNDER 50 points in a season-ending 26-9 victory on the road against BC as 8 ˝-point favorites and it has stayed UNDER in four of the Stampeders’ last five games.

    That uncertainty could change on a dime if quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell gets off to a fast start this Sunday afternoon. He was third in the league in passing yards with 5,124 and he led the CFL in passing touchdowns with 35 against 14 interceptions. The Stampeders were the second-highest scoring team in the league with an average of 29.0 PPG, but they only exceeded that average once in their last six games.

    Betting Trends

    -- The Blue Bombers have covered in four of their last five playoff games on the road and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five division games.

    -- The Stampeders are 2-5 ATS in their last seven postseason games played at home and the total has gone OVER in four of their last five playoff games overall.

    -- The season series was split 1-1 with each team winning at home both SU and ATS. The total went OVER 53 points in Calgary’s 39-26 victory on Aug. 25 as a 7 ˝-point home favorite. It stayed UNDER 52 ˝-points on Oct. 26 in Winnipeg’s 29-21 victory as a 3 ˝-point underdog at home.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-15-2018 at 01:10 AM.

  3. #3
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    CFL
    Long Sheet

    Division Finals


    Sunday, November 18

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    HAMILTON (9 - 10) at OTTAWA (11 - 7) - 11/18/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    HAMILTON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
    OTTAWA is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1996.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    OTTAWA is 5-3 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
    OTTAWA is 6-2 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    WINNIPEG (11 - 8) at CALGARY (13 - 5) - 11/18/2018, 4:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CALGARY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 over the last 2 seasons.
    CALGARY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 52.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 9 or more games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CALGARY is 4-3 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
    CALGARY is 5-2 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-15-2018 at 01:11 AM.

  4. #4
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    CFL

    Division Finals


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    Trend Report
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    Sunday, November 18

    Hamilton Tiger-Cats
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hamilton's last 5 games
    Hamilton is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Hamilton's last 6 games on the road
    Hamilton is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Ottawa
    Hamilton is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Ottawa
    Hamilton is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Hamilton's last 8 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
    Ottawa RedBlacks
    Ottawa is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    Ottawa is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games
    Ottawa is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games at home
    Ottawa is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Hamilton
    Ottawa is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Hamilton
    Ottawa is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Hamilton
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Ottawa's last 8 games when playing at home against Hamilton


    Winnipeg Blue Bombers
    Winnipeg is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    Winnipeg is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 7 games
    Winnipeg is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 18 of Winnipeg's last 25 games on the road
    Winnipeg is 3-18 SU in its last 21 games when playing Calgary
    Winnipeg is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Calgary
    Winnipeg is 2-15 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Calgary
    Calgary Stampeders
    Calgary is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Calgary is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games
    Calgary is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    Calgary is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Calgary's last 9 games at home
    Calgary is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games when playing Winnipeg
    Calgary is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
    Calgary is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Winnipeg


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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-15-2018 at 01:12 AM.

  5. #5
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    CFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Sunday, November 18



    Divisional finals
    Home teams this week both had last week off.

    Hamilton (9-10) @ Ottawa (11-7) (-3, 54)— RedBlacks swept three games from Hamilton this year, by 6-4-17 points; TiCats lost 35-31 (+1.5) here October 19. Under is 4-2 in last six series games. Hamilton lost four of their last six games here. Ti-Cats snapped a 3-game skid when they crushed the Lions in playoffs LW; Hamilton split last four road games. Ottawa won its last three games, by 4-17-15 points; Redblacks covered only one of last six games as a favorite. Over is 8-2 in their last Hamilton games; under is 3-1 in last four Ottawa games.

    Winnipeg (11-8) @ Calgary (13-5) (-5, 52.5)— Winnipeg won two of last three meetings with Calgary after losing previous seven series games; Blue Bombers lost four of last five visits to Calgary (3-2 vs spread). Winnipeg won six of its last seven games after a 5-7 start, winning road playoff game in Regina LW. Bombers are 3-4 as an underdog this year. Calgary lost three of its last four games after a 12-2 start; Stampeders are are 2-5 vs spread in their last seven home games. Under is 5-2 in Bombers’ last seven games, 4-1 in last five Calgary games.

    Divisional semifinals
    Hamilton 48 (-1.5, 52.5), BC Lions 8
    Winnipeg 23, Saskatchewan 18 (-3, 52)

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    CFL
    Dunkel

    Division Finals



    Sunday, November 18

    Hamilton @ Ottawa

    Game 663-664
    November 18, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Hamilton
    108.977
    Ottawa
    121.873
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Ottawa
    by 13
    58
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Ottawa
    by 3 1/2
    54
    Dunkel Pick:
    Ottawa
    (-3 1/2); Over

    Winnipeg @ Calgary


    Game 665-666
    November 18, 2018 @ 4:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Winnipeg
    113.022
    Calgary
    119.693
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Calgary
    by 6 1/2
    57
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Calgary
    by 5
    52 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Calgary
    (-5); Over

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