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Thread: NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 10 (Thur. Nov. 8 - Mon. Nov. 12)

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    Default NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 10 (Thur. Nov. 8 - Mon. Nov. 12)



    NFL Trends and Indexes

    Thursday. November 8 - Monday. November 12

    Additional trends and information will be added as available.

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Armadillo: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……

    Saints 45, Rams 35— New Orleans had 18 first downs, three TD’s on its first 32 plays in this game; then they blew a 35-14 lead- wild game, but they pulled away late. Saints have won their last seven games; average total in their four home games is 67.3.

    Former NFL ref Gene Steratore posted this Sunday morning:

    “Through Week 8, the average number of penalties accepted per game is 13.4- that is the fewest since 2013. Despite what most may think, the refs are letting them play this season.”

    Vikings 24, Lions 9— Minnesota is now 10-0 vs spread (9-1 SU) in its last nine pre-bye games; they’ve won four of last five games. Yardage in this game was just 283-209, and game was indoors. Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 21-7 as home favorites, 3-2 this year.

    Vikings sacked Stafford 10 times; in its last two games, Detroit has run ball for 34-66 yards. Obviously, they’ve got some issues on the offensive line.

    Chiefs 37, Browns 21— Cleveland looked better on offense with Kitchens calling plays, but Kansas City has it rolling right now- KC averaged 10.6 yards/pass attempt, had an 11-yard edge in field position. Chiefs had a 499-388 edge in yardage.

    Chiefs won/covered 8 of their last 9 games; they’re 10-3 in last 13 games as road favorites. Cleveland is 6-16-1 in its last 23 games as a home dog; they lost last four games, giving up an average of 33.5 ppg.

    Steelers 23, Ravens 16— One of key plays in this game was a 22-yard pass by backup QB Dobbs to Smith-Schuster when Steelers were backed up on own 5-yard line with 20-13 lead and 12:35 left to play- drive ended in a clinching FG. It was Dobbs’ only play of the game. This was just second win for Steelers in their last six visits here.

    Pittsburgh converted 10-16 on third down, outgained Baltimore 395-268 in a game with no turnovers. Ravens lost their last three games, are 4-5 heading into their bye week.

    Panthers 42, Buccaneers 28— Three of Carolina’s six TD’s came on drives of 42 or fewer yards; Panthers ran ball for 179 yards, are looking strong- they’re a game behind New Orleans in NFC South- teams have two meetings coming up.

    In their last six games, Bucs are an astounding minus-17 in turnovers. Over is 7-1 in Tampa Bay games; hard to believe the Bucs won’t be cleaning house again when this season ends- they allowed 30+ points in five of their last six games.

    Dolphins 13, Jets 6— This was an unusual boxscore:
    — Jets’ offense ran 64 plays; they were outscored on those 7-6 by Miami’s defense.
    — Neither team scored an offensive touchdown.
    — Total yardage was 282-168, Jets- Miami had only 7 first downs.
    — Teams combined to convert only five of 29 third down plays.
    — There was only one play the whole game inside either team’s red zone.
    — Not many team go +4 in turnovers and score only 13 points.

    Bears 41, Bills 9— This was an even more unusual boxscore:
    — Chicago led 28-0 at the half; their defense scored two of the TD’s.
    — The other two first half TD’s came on drives of only 37-23 yards.
    — Total yardage was 264-190 Bills, and they lost by 32 points.
    — Bills turned ball over four times (-3); Bears had 18-yard edge in field position, and thats not counting their two defensive TD’s.
    — What Buffalo has done this year is just astoundingly bad; they made the playoffs LY for first time in 19 years, but quickly traded LY’s QB and are now the worst team in the NFL.
    — New England’s three AFC East rivals scored a total of 28 points Sunday.

    Falcons 38, Redskins 14— Atlanta was 10-13 on third down in this game; they’ve converted 42 of last 68 third down plays- this was their first win in three outdoor games this season.

    NFC East teams are 1-8 vs spread as non-divisional favorites this season. Washington leads that division with an unimpressive 5-3 record.

    Texans 19, Broncos 17— Houston is first team since the 1970 New York Giants to start a season 0-3, then win their next six games. Broncos missed a 51-yard FG wide right in the last minute.

    Denver lost six of its last seven games, appears headed to its first consecutive losing seasons since the mid-70’s- they’re 2-5-2 in last nine games as home favorites. Under is 4-1 in last five Houston games, 6-2 in last eight Denver games.

    Chargers 25, Seahawks 17— Seattle is now 1-8 vs spread in last nine games as home favorites. Chargers won their last five games overall- they won here despite converting on only 2-9 third down plays, and missing three of four PAT’s. Bolts are now 4-0 outside Los Angeles.

    Patriots 31, Packers 17— Game was tied after three quarters; Green Bay had the ball on the New England 28-yard line- they were driving. First play of the fourth quarter, Aaron Jones loses a fumble, and that ended that- Green Bay was useless the rest of the game.

    New England won its last six games, is 5-0 at home (4-1 as HF)- they’re 26-12-3 vs spread in last 41 games as a home favorite.

    Mike McCarthy played college football (TE) at Baker University in Kansas; his dad was a fireman and bar owner in Pittsburgh. He is 134-82-2 as an NFL head coach, but he’s had Favre/Rodgers as his starting quarterbacks during that time. Pretty good gig.

    Hell, what would Jeff Fisher’s record be if he had Favre/Rodgers? Fisher went 178-171-1 as an NFL head coach, with no one near as good as Favre/Rodgers at QB.

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    Betting Recap - Week 9
    Joe Williams

    Overall Notes

    National Football League Week 9 Results

    Wager Favorites-Underdogs
    Straight Up 6-6
    Against the Spread 6-6

    Wager Home-Away
    Straight Up 6-6
    Against the Spread 6-6

    Wager Totals (O/U)
    Over-Under 5-7

    National Football League Year-to-Date Results
    Wager Favorites-Underdogs
    Straight Up 86-45-2
    Against the Spread 62-69-2

    Wager Home-Away
    Straight Up 78-53-2
    Against the Spread 63-67-2

    Wager Totals (O/U)
    Over-Under 65-68

    The largest underdogs to win straight up
    Saints (+2, ML +105) vs. Rams, 45-35
    Falcons (+1.5, ML +105) at Redskins, 38-14
    49ers (+1.5, ML +110) vs. Raiders, 34-3
    Steelers (+1.5, ML +100) at Ravens, 23-16

    The largest favorite to cover
    Bears (-10) at Bills, 41-9
    Chiefs (-8.5) at Browns, 37-21
    Panthers (-6) vs. Buccaneers, 42-28
    Patriots (-5) vs. Packers, 31-17

    Looking California...

    -- The Los Angeles Chargers went up to the Pacific Northwest and topped the Seattle Seahawks, 25-17. The Bolts have managed a 3-1 SU/ATS record in four road games this season. The 'under' has connected in back-to-back games for the first time in 2018, too. After a 1-3 ATS starts, the Chargers are a solid 3-1 ATS over the past four contests.

    The Bolts will face the Oakland Raiders in Week 10. They topped the Raiders 26-10 to easily cover a five-point spread as the 'under' hit in the first meeting back on Oct. 7 in Carson. L.A. heads into that battle 17-8-1 ATS in the past 26 road games, while the Raiders are just 3-8-2 ATS in the past 13 against teams with a winning record and 4-10-1 ATS in the past 15 vs. AFC foes. The Chargers are 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings with the Raiders, while going 11-4 ATS in the past 15 trips to the Bay Area. The road team is also 6-2 ATS in the past eight in this series.

    ...Feeling Minnesota

    -- The Minnesota Vikings rebounded from last week's loss at home to the New Orleans Saints, topping the Detroit Lions 24-9. It was just the second game against a divisional foe this season, as the Vikings moved to 1-0-1 SU/1-1 ATS. After a 5-0 ATS run, the Lions have failed to cover in back-to-back games for the first time this season while the 'under' has also hit in two straight for the Silver and Honolulu Blue for the first time in 2018.

    The Vikings are 3-2 SU/2-2-1 ATS in five games at home this season and they have yet to cover in back-to-back contests in their home building. One thing that is constant, however, is the 'under'. Minnesota has cashed the under at home in four of their five games at U.S. Bank Stadium in the Twin Cities this season.

    Total Recall

    -- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers hit the 'over' again in their divisional road battle against the Carolina Panthers, losing 42-28. The Bucs moved to 7-1 on over results so far this season, the most overs in the NFL so far. Also in the NFC South, the over is 6-2 for the Atlanta Falcons, hitting again in the 38-14 victory on the road against the Washington Redskins.

    -- If you watched the Duke-Miami (Fla.) college football game, you saw torrential rains and the field at Hard Rock Stadium in terrible shape on Saturday night. It was a quick turnaround with a 1:00 p.m. kickoff between the New York Jets-Miami Dolphins (43), as the turf was less than ideal. There were zero offensive touchdowns (and one defensive score) in the 13-6 win for the home side, easily hitting the 'under'.

    -- The lowest total on the board, Chicago Bears-Buffalo Bills (38) connected as the Bears were able to take care of the 'over' themselves, winning 41-9. The second- and third-lowest totals on the board, the N.Y. Jets-Miami (43) and Oakland Raiders-San Francisco 49ers (44) each cashed the 'under'.

    -- Three of the four highest totals on the board cashed in Week 9. The highest total was in the Los Angeles Rams-New Orleans Saints (57.5) battle, and they combined for 80 points. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Carolina Panthers (55.5) and Kansas City Chiefs-Cleveland Browns (51.5) each hit the 'over'. The only game with a listed total over 50 points to not go over was the Green Bay Packers-New England Patriots (56) battle on Sunday night.

    -- The 'under' went 2-0 in the first two primetime games in Week 9, with the Monday night game between the Tennessee Titans-Dallas Cowboys (40.5) still pending. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 12-15 (44.4%). The 'under' has cashed in seven of the past eight battles on Sunday Night Football.

    Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

    In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

    In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

    In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

    Injury Report

    -- Seattle Seahawks RB Chris Carson (hip) was the only major offensive player to leave Sunday's action and fail to return.

    Looking Ahead

    -- The Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears will do battle at Soldier Field. The Lions arrive with a 5-2-1 ATS mark over their past eight inside the division even after failing to cover in Minnesota in Week 9. However, they're just 3-9 ATS across the past 12 against winning teams. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in the past five home games, and 5-1 ATS in the past six against losing teams, including their 41-9 throttling of the Bills on Sunday. The under is 5-1 in the past six meetings in Chicago, and 4-1 in the past five meetings overall in this series.

    -- The Jaguars head to Indianapolis looking to get well against the Colts. They have had a lot of success in the RCA Dome and Lucas Oil Stadium over the years. Jacksonville is 7-1 ATS in their past eight following a bye week, although they're 0-4 ATS over the past four overall and 1-5 ATS in their past six following a straight-up loss. Indy is 2-7 ATS in their past nine inside the division, and 4-10-1 ATS in the past 15 following a straight-up win. They're 8-3 ATS in the past 11 following a bye week, and 32-13 ATS in the past 45 against losing teams. The under is 5-1 in the past six divisional games for both the Jags and Colts. For Jacksonville, the under is 12-4 in their past 16 against AFC opponents, too. In this series, Jacksonville has covered six straight meetings, and they're 8-3 ATS in the past 11 in Indianapolis. The under is 7-0 in the past seven in Indy, while going 11-3 in the past 14 meetings in this series, too.

    -- The Bills travel to New Jersey to battle the Jets, who were awful in their Week 9 loss in Miami. Buffalo was equally poor at home. In fact, both of these teams combined for 15 total points on Sunday. The Bills are 3-8 ATS in their past 11 divisional games, while going 0-6 ATS in the past six on the road against teams with a losing home record. The Jets are 10-3 ATS in the past 13 at home, but just 1-3-1 ATS in the past five inside the division. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series, with the over going 6-2 in the past eight meetings at MetLife Stadium.

    -- The Seahawks travel to meet the Rams, who are certain to be angry after their first loss of the season. The home team is 8-3 ATS in the past 11 meetings in this series, with the Seahawks 1-5 ATS in their past six trips to L.A. (and St. Louis). The under is 12-5 in the past 17 meetings, and 6-2 in the past eight in L.A/St. Louis, although the over hit in the meeting earlier this season in Seattle.

    -- The Cowboys and Eagles will do battle on Sunday night. Remember, the under is 7-1 in the past eight games on SNF. The under is also 7-1 in the past eight for Dallas against NFC foes, and 4-0 in the past four divisional games. The under is 23-6 in their past 29 on the road, too. For Philly, the under is 4-0 in their past four at home and 13-5 in their past 18 following a bye. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, although the Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in the past six in Philly, with the road team cashing in 10 of the previous 13 meetings. The under is 4-1 in the past five in Philly, and 7-3 in the past 10 overall in the series.

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    Bettors jump on Panthers' opening odds for NFL Week 10 battle vs. Steelers
    Patrick Everson

    Greg Olsen and the Panthers have won and covered in their last three games, which has apparently caught bettors' attention. Carolina opened +6.5 at Pittsburgh and was quickly bet to +5.5.

    Every NFL team will have at least half the season in the rearview mirror when Week 9 concludes Monday night. We check in on the opening lines and early action for a quartet of Week 10 contests, with insights from John Murray and Derek Wilkinson, director and supervisor, respectively, of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

    Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)

    Pittsburgh is starting to look more like, well, Pittsburgh heading into this Thursday night contest. The Steelers (5-2-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) have won and covered four in a row and five of six, including a 23-16 Week 9 victory at Baltimore as 1.5-point underdogs.

    Carolina won and cashed in its last three outings and is 5-1 SU in its last six, trying to keep pace with New Orleans in the NFC South. The Panthers (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) bolted to a 35-7 lead against Tampa Bay, but had to hang on late in a 42-28 win as 6-point home favorites in Week 9.

    There was no action on this number in the first hour after it was posted, but Carolina drew some cash Sunday night.

    “We got a decent-sized bet on Panthers +6.5 and another at +6,” Wilkinson said. “Also, the market evened out lower than we anticipated.”

    Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-9.5)

    Los Angeles finally exited the ranks of the undefeated, well after every other NFL team had at least one loss. The Rams (8-1 SU, 4-5 ATS) found themselves in a 35-14 second-quarter hole at New Orleans, came all the way back to tie the game at 35, but couldn’t quite finish in a 45-35 setback laying 1.5 points.

    Seattle looked like it was finding good form with a 4-1 SU and ATS run heading into Week 9. But the Seahawks (4-4 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) fell flat at home against San Diego, losing 25-17 as 1-point home pups.

    “We opened it Rams -9.5 and took one bet on the Rams so far, but nothing noteworthy,” Murray said. “The Rams will be included in every teaser and moneyline parlay next week.”

    The SuperBook moved with the market to Rams -10 on Sunday night.

    Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)

    The NFC East is completely up for grabs at the midway point, and defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia is rested for the second half, coming off its bye week. The Eagles (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) beat Jacksonville 24-18 laying 3.5 points on the road in Week 8, but have yet to win back-to-back games this season.

    Dallas still has some Week 9 work to do before thinking about this Sunday night NFC East clash. The Cowboys (3-4 SU and ATS), coming off a Week 8 bye, host Tennessee in the Monday nighter.

    “We opened Eagles -6 and haven't seen any bets yet on either side,” Murray said. “We will need Dallas by kickoff on Sunday night.”

    Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)

    Green Bay is in the midst of a very tough stretch of four road games in five weeks, the first two of which were in Weeks 8 and 9, taking the squad from the West Coast to the East Coast. In the Week 9 Sunday nighter, the Packers (3-4-1 SU, 3-5 ATS) traveled to New England as 5-point ‘dogs and couldn’t keep up in the second half, falling 31-17.

    Miami got out of the gate 3-0 SU and ATS, then spent the past several weeks trying to regain that form. The Dolphins (5-4 SU and ATS) ended a 1-4 SU and ATS skid by slogging past the New York Jets 13-6 as 3-point home favorites in Week 9.

    “We opened Packers -7.5 and took some money on Miami, but we are leaving the line there,” Murray said. “I'm sure we will want more Miami money by Sunday.”

    Per The SuperBook’s standard operating procedure, the line on this game was taken off the board while the Packers battled the Patriots on Sunday night. The line will go back up Monday morning.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-08-2018 at 03:37 AM.

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    NFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 10


    Thursday. November 8

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    CAROLINA (6 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (5 - 2 - 1) - 11/8/2018, 8:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PITTSBURGH is 107-78 ATS (+21.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
    CAROLINA is 116-85 ATS (+22.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
    CAROLINA is 167-132 ATS (+21.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    CAROLINA is 161-125 ATS (+23.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    Sunday, November 9

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    BUFFALO (2 - 7) at NY JETS (3 - 6) - 11/11/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NY JETS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NY JETS is 3-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
    NY JETS is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    ATLANTA (4 - 4) at CLEVELAND (2 - 6 - 1) - 11/11/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 14-31 ATS (-20.1 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    NEW ORLEANS (7 - 1) at CINCINNATI (5 - 3) - 11/11/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ORLEANS is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) against AFC North division opponents since 1992.
    NEW ORLEANS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    WASHINGTON (5 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 5) - 11/11/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TAMPA BAY is 64-39 ATS (+21.1 Units) in November games since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    NEW ENGLAND (7 - 2) at TENNESSEE (4 - 4) - 11/11/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ENGLAND is 34-13 ATS (+19.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 34-13 ATS (+19.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 33-13 ATS (+18.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
    TENNESSEE is 115-149 ATS (-48.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    MIAMI (5 - 4) at GREEN BAY (3 - 4 - 1) - 11/11/2018, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MIAMI is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    MIAMI is 57-82 ATS (-33.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 109-80 ATS (+21.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 190-136 ATS (+40.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 72-45 ATS (+22.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    JACKSONVILLE (3 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 5) - 11/11/2018, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    JACKSONVILLE is 4-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
    JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    DETROIT (3 - 5) at CHICAGO (5 - 3) - 11/11/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DETROIT is 25-42 ATS (-21.2 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
    DETROIT is 139-175 ATS (-53.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    DETROIT is 47-69 ATS (-28.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
    CHICAGO is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CHICAGO is 2-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
    DETROIT is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    ARIZONA (2 - 6) at KANSAS CITY (8 - 1) - 11/11/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
    KANSAS CITY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 34-16 ATS (+16.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
    KANSAS CITY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    LA CHARGERS (6 - 2) at OAKLAND (1 - 7) - 11/11/2018, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA CHARGERS is 121-91 ATS (+20.9 Units) in road games since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS is 121-91 ATS (+20.9 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS is 97-71 ATS (+18.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 77-107 ATS (-40.7 Units) in home games since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 77-107 ATS (-40.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 27-49 ATS (-26.9 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 143-180 ATS (-55.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    LA CHARGERS is 4-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
    LA CHARGERS is 3-2 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SEATTLE (4 - 4) at LA RAMS (8 - 1) - 11/11/2018, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA RAMS is 188-236 ATS (-71.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 188-236 ATS (-71.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 134-186 ATS (-70.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 146-187 ATS (-59.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 32-51 ATS (-24.1 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 66-99 ATS (-42.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SEATTLE is 3-2 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
    LA RAMS is 3-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DALLAS (3 - 5) at PHILADELPHIA (4 - 4) - 11/11/2018, 8:20 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
    PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Monday. November 12

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NY GIANTS (1 - 7) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 7) - 11/12/2018, 8:15 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NY GIANTS are 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
    NY GIANTS are 37-64 ATS (-33.4 Units) in November games since 1992.
    NY GIANTS are 35-59 ATS (-29.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 32-10 ATS (+21.0 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.
    NY GIANTS are 56-34 ATS (+18.6 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
    SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-08-2018 at 03:38 AM.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    73,864
    Credits
    191,042

    Default

    NFL

    Week 10


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Thursday, November 8

    Carolina Panthers
    Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games
    Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    Carolina is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
    Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
    Pittsburgh Steelers
    Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games
    Pittsburgh is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games at home
    Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
    Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Carolina


    Sunday, November 11

    Detroit Lions
    Detroit is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games
    Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 10 games on the road
    Detroit is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
    Detroit is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Chicago
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Chicago
    Detroit is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago
    Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
    Chicago Bears
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Detroit
    Chicago is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
    Chicago is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
    Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games at home
    Chicago is 5-9-2 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Detroit
    Chicago is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing Detroit
    Chicago is 2-2-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
    Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit


    Arizona Cardinals
    Arizona is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Arizona is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 12 games
    Arizona is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
    Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 15 of Arizona's last 21 games on the road
    Arizona is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
    Kansas City Chiefs
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kansas City's last 9 games at home
    Kansas City is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
    Kansas City is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games
    Kansas City is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
    Kansas City is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
    Kansas City is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Arizona


    New England Patriots
    New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    New England is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games on the road
    New England is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 8 games on the road
    New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
    New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing Tennessee
    Tennessee Titans
    Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games
    Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Tennessee is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games at home
    Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
    Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England


    New Orleans Saints
    New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
    New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
    Cincinnati Bengals
    Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Cincinnati is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 9 games
    Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
    Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing New Orleans


    Atlanta Falcons
    Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games
    Atlanta is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
    Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games on the road
    Cleveland Browns
    Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Cleveland is 2-22-1 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
    Cleveland is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games at home
    Cleveland is 3-18-1 SU in its last 22 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Cleveland's last 18 games at home


    Jacksonville Jaguars
    Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
    Jacksonville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
    Jacksonville is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games on the road
    Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
    Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Jacksonville's last 14 games when playing Indianapolis
    Jacksonville is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
    Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
    Indianapolis Colts
    Indianapolis is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Indianapolis's last 16 games
    Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Indianapolis is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 8 games at home
    Indianapolis is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
    Indianapolis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Indianapolis's last 14 games when playing Jacksonville
    Indianapolis is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
    Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville


    Washington Redskins
    Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Washington's last 12 games
    Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 15 of Washington's last 23 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
    Washington is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
    Washington is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
    Washington is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
    Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games
    Tampa Bay is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Tampa Bay's last 14 games at home
    Tampa Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Washington
    Tampa Bay is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
    Tampa Bay is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Washington


    Buffalo Bills
    Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games
    Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games on the road
    Buffalo is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing NY Jets
    Buffalo is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing NY Jets
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing NY Jets
    Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
    Buffalo is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 8 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
    New York Jets
    NY Jets is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
    NY Jets is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games
    NY Jets is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of NY Jets's last 9 games at home
    NY Jets is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Buffalo
    NY Jets is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Buffalo
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games when playing Buffalo
    NY Jets is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo
    NY Jets is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Buffalo
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Jets's last 8 games when playing at home against Buffalo


    Los Angeles Chargers
    LA Chargers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 13 of LA Chargers's last 19 games
    LA Chargers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    LA Chargers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 10 games on the road
    LA Chargers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
    LA Chargers is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Oakland
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games when playing Oakland
    LA Chargers is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Oakland
    LA Chargers is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Oakland
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
    Oakland Raiders
    Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
    Oakland is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Oakland's last 15 games
    Oakland is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games at home
    Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
    Oakland is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing LA Chargers
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
    Oakland is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
    Oakland is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Chargers


    Miami Dolphins
    Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    Miami is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
    Miami is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
    Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 10 games when playing Green Bay
    Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
    Green Bay Packers
    Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
    Green Bay is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
    Green Bay is 3-7-1 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Green Bay's last 14 games
    Green Bay is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
    Green Bay is 11-4-1 SU in its last 16 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games at home
    Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Green Bay's last 10 games when playing Miami
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against Miami


    Seattle Seahawks
    Seattle is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games
    Seattle is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road
    Seattle is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing LA Rams
    Seattle is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing LA Rams
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Seattle's last 17 games when playing LA Rams
    Seattle is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
    Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
    Los Angeles Rams
    LA Rams is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    LA Rams is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
    LA Rams is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    LA Rams is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
    LA Rams is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing Seattle
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of LA Rams's last 17 games when playing Seattle
    LA Rams is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
    LA Rams is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Rams's last 8 games when playing at home against Seattle


    Dallas Cowboys
    Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Dallas's last 17 games
    Dallas is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 10 games when playing Philadelphia
    Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
    Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
    Philadelphia Eagles
    Philadelphia is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    Philadelphia is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
    Philadelphia is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 9 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 10 games when playing Dallas
    Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
    Philadelphia is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas


    Monday, November 12

    New York Giants
    NY Giants is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of NY Giants's last 15 games
    NY Giants is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    NY Giants is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 7 games on the road
    NY Giants is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
    NY Giants is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Francisco
    NY Giants is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
    NY Giants is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
    San Francisco 49ers
    San Francisco is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
    San Francisco is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of San Francisco's last 12 games
    San Francisco is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games at home
    San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
    San Francisco is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games at home
    San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
    San Francisco is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing NY Giants
    San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants
    San Francisco is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against NY Giants


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-08-2018 at 03:39 AM.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    73,864
    Credits
    191,042

    Default

    NFL
    Dunkel

    Week 10



    Thursday. November 8

    Carolina @ Pittsburgh

    Game 107-108
    November 8, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Carolina
    133.230
    Pittsburgh
    144.783
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 11 1/2
    57
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 4
    51 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Pittsburgh
    (-4); Over


    Sunday, November 11

    Buffalo @ NY Jets


    Game 251-252
    November 11, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Buffalo
    113.155
    NY Jets
    130.046
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    NY Jets
    by 17
    35
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    NY Jets
    by 7
    37
    Dunkel Pick:
    NY Jets
    (-7); Under

    Atlanta @ Cleveland


    Game 253-254
    November 11, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Atlanta
    134.180
    Cleveland
    125.412
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Atlanta
    by 9
    52
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Atlanta
    by 4
    50 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Atlanta
    (-4); Over

    New Orleans @ Cincinnati


    Game 455-456
    November 11, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    New Orleans
    141.922
    Cincinnati
    129.806
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New Orleans
    by 12
    60
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New Orleans
    by 4 1/2
    53 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    New Orleans
    (-4 1/2); Over

    Washington @ Tampa Bay


    Game 257-258
    November 11, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Washington
    126.453
    Tampa Bay
    126.346
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Washington
    Even
    54
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Tampa Bay
    by 3
    51 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Washington
    (+3); Over

    New England @ Tennessee


    Game 259-260
    November 11, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    New England
    139.331
    Tennessee
    134.930
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New England
    by 4 1/2
    43
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New England
    by 7
    46 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Tennessee
    (+7); Under

    Miami @ Green Bay


    Game 261-262
    November 11, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Miami
    121.506
    Green Bay
    134.917
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Green Bay
    by 13 1/2
    41
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Green Bay
    by 9 1/2
    47 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Green Bay
    (-9 1/2); Under

    Jacksonville @ Indianapolis


    Game 263-264
    November 11, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Jacksonville
    125.590
    Indianapolis
    131.291
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Indianapolis
    by 5 1/2
    50
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Indianapolis
    by 3
    47
    Dunkel Pick:
    Indianapolis
    (-3); Over

    Detroit @ Chicago


    Game 265-266
    November 11, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Detroit
    128.774
    Chicago
    139.199
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Chicago
    by 10 1/2
    41
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Chicago
    by 6 1/2
    45
    Dunkel Pick:
    Chicago
    (-6 1/2); Under

    Arizona @ Kansas City


    Game 267-268
    November 11, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Arizona
    122.766
    Kansas City
    141.359
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Kansas City
    by 18 1/2
    41
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Kansas City
    by 16 1/2
    49 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Kansas City
    (-16 1/2); Under

    LA Chargers @ Oakland


    Game 269-270
    November 11, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Chargers
    131.179
    Oakland
    123.525
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Chargers
    by 7 1/2
    46
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Chargers
    by 10
    50 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Oakland
    (+10); Under

    Seattle @ LA Rams


    Game 271-272
    November 11, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Seattle
    134.123
    LA Rams
    136.791
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Rams
    by 2 1/2
    53
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Rams
    by 10
    51 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Seattle
    (+10); Over

    Dallas @ Philadelphia


    Game 273-274
    November 11, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Dallas
    128.890
    Philadelphia
    132.401
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 3 1/2
    40
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 6 1/2
    43
    Dunkel Pick:
    Dallas
    (+6 1/2); Under


    Monday, November 1

    NY Giants @ San Francisco


    Game 275-276
    November 12, 2018 @ 8:15 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    NY Giants
    124.669
    San Francisco
    126.185
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    San Francisco
    by 1 1/2
    41
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    San Francisco
    by 3
    43 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    NY Giants
    (+3); Under
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-08-2018 at 03:40 AM.

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    NFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 10



    Thursday
    Panthers (6-2) @ Steelers (5-2-1)— Carolina won/covered its last three games; they’ve got 13 TD’s on their last 24 drives. In their wins, Panthers are +11 in TO’s, -3 in losses- they’re 1-2 on road, rallying back from down 17-0 in only win; since ’15, they’re 10-4 in last 14 games as road underdogs. Steelers won/covered their last four games; Pitt is 2-2 at home this year, losing to Chiefs/Ravens- since ’13, they’re 20-15 as HF, 2-2 this year. Pitt won last five meetings, all by 10+ points; Carolina is 0-3 at Heinz Field, losing by 10-16-24 points. FC South non-divisional road teams are 4-7 vs spread; AFC North non-divisional HF are 5-3. Over is 5-2 in last seven Carolina games, 3-1 in Steeler home games.

    Sunday
    Bills (2-7) @ Jets (3-6)— It would take onions to lay 7.5 points with the Jets. Gang Green lost last three games, by 20-14-7 points; they scored one TD on their last 23 drives. Jets are 2-2 SU at home; under Bowles, they’re 7-5 as HF, 2-1 this year. Buffalo is really bad; they lost last four games- in their last two games, Bills ran 144 plays, and were outscored 21-15 by other team’s defense on those plays. Buffalo is 2-3 as AU this year; in their last three games, Bills are -10 in turnovers. Jets won three of last four series games, winning 30-10/34-21 in last two played here. Opening total of 36.5 is NFL’s lowest since 2012. NFL-wide, divisional HF are 11-13 vs spread this year. Under is 6-1 in Bills’ last seven games, 2-4 in Jets’ last six games.

    Falcons (4-4) @ Browns (2-6-1)— Atlanta won its last three games, scoring 31.7 ppg; they’ve converted 42 of last 68 third down plays, scored 11 TD’s on last 28 drives. Falcons are 1-2 on road this year; under Quinn, they’re 5-7 as road favorites, 0-0 this year. Atlanta is 5-10 vs spread in its last 15 games on natural grass. Cleveland lost its last four games, allowing 33.5 ppg; they’re 6-14-1 in last 21 games as home underdogs, 2-2 this year. Home side lost three of four series games, with Browns winning three of the four games, splitting pair here. NFC South non-divisions road teams are 6-3 vs spread; AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 3-5. Over is 6-1 in Falcons’ last seven games, 3-1 in Browns’ last four games.

    Saints (7-1) @ Bengals (5-3)— New Orleans won its last seven games, covered last six, has trap game here, coming off big wins over NFC rivals Vikings/Rams. Saints are 4-0 on road this year, scoring 32.5 ppg; they’re 5-1 in last six games as road favorites, 1-0 this year. Bengals lost two of last three games; they’re 3-1 at home- they covered eight of last nine games as a home dog. Cincy won four of last five series games; home side lost four of last six series games. Saints are 4-3 in their visits here, with last one in ’10. AJ Green (toe) is out here, big blow to Bengal offense. Cincy is 6-13 vs spread in last 19 post-bye games; NFC South non-divisions road teams are 6-3 vs spread; AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 3-5. Under is 3-1 in Bengals’ last four games.

    Redskins (5-3) @ Buccaneers (3-5)— In its last six games, Tampa Bay is minus-17 in turnovers, which is terrible- they have one takeaway in their last five games. Tampa Bay’s defense is hurting; they allowed 37-42 points in last two games, 30+ points in five of last six. Bucs allowed 10 TD’s on foes’ last 23 drives. Washington won three of its last four games; they’ve run ball for 130+ yards in their wins, 65-39-79 in their losses. Redskins are 8-6 in last 14 games as road underdogs, 1-1 this year. Teams split last eight meetings; four of last five meetings were decided by 3 or fewer points. Redskins are 2-3 vs Bucs here, with last visit in ’12. Over is 7-1 in Tampa Bay games this year; under is 3-1 in Redskins’ last four games.

    Patriots (7-2) @ Titans (4-4)— New England won its last nine (8-1 vs spread) pre-bye games; they won last six games overall (5-1 vs spread). NE is 2-2 on road this year, 2-2 as AF; since ’16, they’re 13-6 as AF. Patriots won last seven series games, with last five wins all by 17+ points- they waxed Titans 35-14 in a playoff game LY, won last two visits here 40-23/34-13. Tennessee snapped 3-game skid with Monday night win; this is short week for them. Titans covered three of last four tries as home dogs- they’re 2-1 at home this year, with both wins by a FG. In their last two games, Tennessee converted 20-29 third down plays. Titans are 3-1 when they score 20+ points, 1-3 when they score less; Under is 5-2 in last seven Tennessee games.

    Dolphins (5-4) @ Packers (3-4-1)— Green Bay lost at Rams/Patriots last two weeks, drop way down in class here; Packers are 3-0-1 at home this year, 1-2 as HF- since 2014, they’re 18-12-2 as HF. Miami won LW without scoring an offensive TD; Dolphins lost their last three road games, by 31-10-19 points, after beating Jets in road opener. Miami is 3-8 in its last 11 games as road underdogs, 1-3 this year. Green Bay won three of last four meetings, after losing nine of first 10; Dolphins are 3-2 on frozen tundra, winning last visit here 23-20 in OT in ’10. Dolphins are 2-6 vs spread in last eight pre-bye games. AFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 2-9 vs spread this year. Three of last four Miami games went over the total.

    Jaguars (3-5) @ Colts (3-5)— Jaguars lost last four games, scoring only three TD’s on 30 drives in last three games; they’re 1-2 in true road games, covered seven of last eight post-bye games; Jags are 7-5 in last 12 games as road underdogs, 0-1 this year. Jags covered seven of their last eight post-bye games. Colts scored 37-42 points in winning last two games, after a 1-5 start; they’re 1-2 at home this year, 1-2 as HF. Since ’14, Indy is 13-11-1 as HF- they’re 10-3 vs spread in their last 13 post-bye games. Jax won four of last five series games, with three of four wins by 20+ points, but Jaguars lost four of last five visits here. Four of Colts’ last five games went over the total. Jaguars are 3-0 scoring 20+ points, 0-5 when they score less than 20.

    Lions (3-5) @ Bears (5-3)— Lions fired their special teams coach Monday, so they’ve got issues in their building; Detroit was outrushed 304-100 in losing their last two games- Stafford was sacked 10 times Sunday, so their OL has problems, too. Lions are 12-16 in last 28 games as AU, 2-1 this year. Chicago beat cruddy QB’s (Jets/Bills) last two weeks; Bears are 3-1 at home this year, are 3-0 as HF, after being 1-6 n that role from ’15-’17. Detroit won nine of last ten series games, winning last three by 3-3-10 points; five of last six series games were decided by 4 or fewer points. Detroit won four of its last five visits here. Four of last five Chicago games went over total; over is 3-1 in Detroit’s road games.

    Cardinals (2-6) @ Chiefs (8-1)— Since 2000, Chiefs are 23rd NFL team to be favored by 17+ points; first 22 teams went 8-12-2 vs spread (they all won SU). KC is 9-1 vs spread this year, 3-1 as HF; only one of their wins (45-10 vs Cincy) was by more than 16 points. Chiefs scored 14 TD’s on their last 29 drives. Arizona has rookie QB, rookie coach; they’ve lost three games by 18+ points. Cardinals are 1-2 on road, losing 34-0 at Rams, 27-17 at Vikings- they won at SF. Chiefs are 8-3-1 in series; Arizona is 0-4-1 at Arrowhead, losing by 24-10-49-18 points. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 8-3-1 vs spread; NFC West road underdogs are 3-3-1. Three of last four Arizona games went over total; under is 4-2 in Chiefs’ last six games.

    Chargers (6-2) @ Raiders (1-7)— Chargers won their last five games; they’re 4-0 outside LA, after stopping Seattle inside 10-yard line on last drive Sunday. Under Lynn, LA is 3-1-1 as road favorites, 2-0 this year- they held last four opponents under 20 points. Raiders lost last four games; they gave up a while ago, allowing 42-34 points in last two games. Oakland is 1-2 at home, giving up 33-42-42 points (over 2-1). Raiders are 3-7-1 vs spread in last 11 games as home underdogs. Chargers won last three series games, beating Oakland 26-10 (-5.5) at home in Week 5, when they outgained Raiders 412-289; Bolts are 4-3 in their last seven visits here. Chargers changed kickers this week after missing three PAT’s in Seattle.

    Seahawks (4-4) @ Rams (8-1)- After facing Rodgers/Brees last two weeks, Rams are facing Seattle team that ran ball for 169 yards/game the last five weeks. Since ’14, Seahawks are 8-6-1 as AU, 1-1-1 this year. LA won first meeting this year 33-31 (-7) in Seattle in Week 5, despite going -2 in turnovers; Rams won five of last seven series games. Seahawks lost three of last four road series games, winning here 16-10 LY. Rams lost for first time LW; they were 3-1 vs spread coming off loss LY. LA is 4-0 at home, 3-1 as HF, winning by 34-12-7-2 points; under McVay, LA is 6-4 as HF. Three of Rams’ last four games, six of last seven Seattle games stayed under the total. Rams haven’t had their bye yet; Seattle had theirs two weeks ago, could be fresher.

    Cowboys (3-5) @ Eagles (4-4)— Home side lost eight of last ten series games; Dallas won four of last five visits here. Teams split season series each of last five years. Short week for Dallas team that lost three of its last four games; Cowboys are 3-0 when they score 20+ points, 0-5 when they don’t- they fired OL coach last week and still ran ball for only 72 yards in dismal home loss Monday (Prescott’s INT in red zone didn’t help). Dallas is 1-4 in last five games as road dogs. Eagles are 2-2 at home this year, 0-3 as HF; all four games were decided by 6 or fewer points. Philly is 2-4 vs spread in last six post-bye games- they’re 2-3 in last five games, but blew double digit leads in two of the losses. All four Dallas road games this season stayed under total.

    Monday
    Giants (1-7) @ 49ers (2-7)— Niners’ QB Mullens had great debut LW in 34-3 win over Oakland, averaging 11.9 yards/pass attempt; 49ers scored 27+ points in five of their last eight games, are 2-2 at home- they’re 4-10 in last 14 games as HF. Giants lost their last five games (2-3 vs spread); they ran ball for 61-37 yards in last two games. NY was outscored 41-12 in first half of last three games; they’re 11 of last 47 on 3rd down. Giants are 1-3 on road this year but covered last three away tilts; they’re 7-4 in last 11 games as road dogs. Teams split last six series games; Giants are 3-2 in last five visits here. Big Blue is 1-3 in last four post-bye games. 49ers played on Thursday LW, so both teams come into this game well-rested.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-08-2018 at 03:41 AM.

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    By: Brandon DuBreuil


    NO GREEN FOR CINCY

    Reports out of Cincinnati are that A.J. Green won’t need surgery on his foot but that he will miss at least two weeks, which includes Week 10 where the 5-3 Bengals host the Saints and Week 11 at Baltimore. This is terrible news for Cincy fans and Green backers, but Tyler Boyd owners must be licking their chops.

    Boyd has been one of the biggest surprise players of the season with 49 catches for 620 yards and five touchdowns on 66 targets and is coming off one of his best games of the season where he posted a 9-138-1 line on Tampa Bay in Week 8. Andy Dalton will have to rely on him heavily over the next two weeks but there is some concern that Boyd might not be as productive when opponents shadow him like a WR1 — which they’re going to do without Green on the field. For that reason, we’re going to stay away from his receiving totals and instead back him to get into the end zone. Boyd has five touchdowns in the six games where he has received seven or more targets so far this season and we like him to get at least that many looks against the Saints. Take Boyd to score a touchdown at any time at home against a Saints pass defense that ranks 29th in DVOA.


    MICHEL’S RETURN

    Reports out of New England late on Monday are that running back Sony Michel is set to return this week at Tennessee, assuming he doesn’t have any setbacks throughout the week. Michel has missed the last two weeks after being knocked out of the Patriots’ win at Chicago and, although New England has been able to win without him, the offense just hasn’t been the same.

    Two weeks ago in Buffalo, New England was unable to score a touchdown until the fourth quarter and on Sunday the offense stalled until Cordarrelle Patterson was able to gain some chunks as a running back in the second half. Michel’s presence can’t be understated: His ability to gain significant yards on first down forces opponents to respect the run, which in turn opens up receivers for Tom Brady. Assuming he does return in Week 10, bettors can expect a lot of carries which will lead to a lot of yards against a mediocre Titans rush defense that is ranked 17th in DVOA and is giving up 112.3 rushing yards per game. Take the Over on Michel’s rushing yards total.


    SURGERY FOR GERONIMO?

    Packers coach Mike McCarthy told the media on Monday that Geronimo Allison has a “significant” core muscle injury after the receiver visited a specialist in Philadelphia. It would appear that surgery is on the horizon for Allison. For Green Bay, this means that its receiving corps will look much like it did on Sunday night in New England with Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling on the perimeters and Randall Cobb in the slot.

    You know what you’re getting with Adams (stud) and Cobb (average) but MVS is a bit more of a mystery. He has two huge yardage performances over the last three weeks on nearly identical lines of three catches for 103 yards and three catches for 101 yards (both on six targets) with a touchdown sandwiched between. Against New England, MVS made two great catches in the third quarter which likely went a long way in gaining Aaron Rodgers’ confidence. This week, the rookie out of South Florida is in a great spot in a home game at Lambeau against a Miami defense that is ranked 24th in pass defense DVOA. We expect Rodgers to give him 7-9 targets which should be plenty to get him a chunk of yards. Take the Over on his receiving yards total.


    CARSON BANGED UP

    Seattle’s Chris Carson won’t “do much” at practice this week, at least according to coach Peter Carroll, after the running back hurt his thigh in Sunday’s loss to the Chargers and was seen with his leg wrapped after the game. Mike Davis got the bulk of the work after Carson (eight carries for 40 yards) left the game and finished with an unimpressive 62 yards on 15 carries.

    Regardless of what happens in practice this week or who suits up at running back, the Seahawks’ backfield is one to avoid in Week 10 as they visit the Rams. Yes, Seattle runs the ball more than any team in the league but that won’t happen on Sunday as a 10-point underdog. The Seahawks will try to establish the run early but won’t be able to keep handing it off after Jared Goff and the Rams get up by double digits. Carson had success against the Rams a month ago but that was in Seattle and while healthy. We just don’t see Seattle running backs getting the volume they need to succeed on Sunday and we’re taking the Under on the rushing yards total for Carson (or Davis if he gets the start).


    WASHINGTON WOES

    You’d be tough pressed to find a team that had a worse day than Washington on Sunday as it suffered multiple devastating injuries in addition to getting blown out at home by the lowly Falcons. Washington confirmed on Monday that left guard Shawn Lauvao, right guard Brandon Scherff, and wide receiver Paul Richardson are all out for the season after injuries sustained in Week 9.

    This news affects the offense in numerous negative ways but no one is likely hit harder than Adrian Peterson. Washington’s offense has been built on pounding the ball with AP and winning the time-possession game and it’s going to be very hard to do that down two starters on the offensive line. On Sunday, Peterson was only able to rack 17 yards on nine carries as Washington had to use all eight of its active offensive linemen because of injuries. It didn’t help his cause that Washington fell behind 21-7 in the first half, but that could happen against this week as Washington visits Tampa Bay and its quick-strike passing game that is similar to Atlanta’s offensive strategy. AP’s stock is trending way down for the rest of the season and we’re taking the Under on his rushing yards total in Week 10.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-08-2018 at 03:42 AM.

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    By: Brandon DuBreuil


    DEZ HEADING TO NOLA?

    Reports late on Tuesday were that Dez Bryant and the New Orleans Saints were in negations for a contract after the team liked what it saw from his workout. At this point, it would be a shock for Bryant to turn down any kind of deal, especially one that allowed him to play with Drew Brees on a Super Bowl contender, but stranger things have happened.

    Assuming Bryant signs on Wednesday he’d likely be a healthy scratch for New Orleans’ Week 11 game at Cincinnati as there just isn’t enough time for him to learn the offense between now and Sunday. Once he’s up to speed with the offense, Bryant would slide into the WR3 role alongside Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith. Bryant isn’t going to affect Thomas’ production moving forward, and likely not Smith’s, but he could carve out a role for himself simply because he’s playing in a New Orleans’ offense with one of the greatest quarterbacks of our generation. If Dez is active in Week 10, we recommend passing on his prop bets but here’s one note of interest for the near future: New Orleans visits Dallas in a primetime game on November 29th. Get your popcorn ready.


    MULLENS GETS MONDAY NIGHT

    Coach Kyle Shanahan announced on Tuesday that quarterback Nick Mullens will start against the Giants in Week 10, regardless of C.J. Beathard’s health. This was expected but it’s now official after Mullens lit up the Raiders for three touchdowns in the first half of his first career start last week. This week, he gets the primetime lights again as 49ers host the Giants on Monday Night Football.

    Mullens looked great in his debut but let’s take it with a grain of salt as it was against Oakland and its league-worst pass defense in DVOA. He gets another soft matchup on paper this week, however, as the Giants rank 27th using the same metric. Let’s not forget that the G-Men are basically tanking after trading away two defensive starters just a couple of weeks ago. Offensively, however, the Giants are still uber-talented at all skill positions and veteran Eli Manning will have had an extra week to prepare for a middle-of-the-pack San Francisco defense. We expect lots of points in this one and, with a total currently set at 44, we recommend jumping on the Over before it gets bet up.


    STATUS QUO IN BIG D

    Speaking after their ugly loss to the mediocre Titans on Monday Night Football, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said coach Jason Garrett will not be replaced midseason and that Dak Prescott is the quarterback of the future and that “he’s going to get extended”. His comments about Prescott aren’t surprising as Dallas has no other choice but to stick with Prescott for the time being (and we’ll see about that contract extension after the draft). But Tuesday seemed like the perfect day to fire Garrett with the 3-5 Cowboys severely underperforming.

    Dallas travels to Philadelphia in Week 10 to take on the Super Bowl champs in another primetime game on Sunday Night Football. The line opened at Eagles -5.5 and has since been bet up to -6.5, which seems like a spread that is way too big for a divisional matchup between these two rivals, but it reflects the current state of the Cowboys. Dallas is traveling on a short week and will be without defensive leader Sean Lee who will miss some time after aggravating his hamstring injury. Philadelphia, meanwhile, is coming off its bye and welcomes star receiver Golden Tate to its offense. Lay the 6.5 with Eagles as things are going to get worse before they get better in Dallas.


    DUKE’S ALIVE!

    As it turns out, all Duke Johnson Jr. needed to get his season off life support was for the Browns to fire their head coach and their offensive coordinator. His fantasy owners have been waiting for the pass-catching back to get involved in the offense and it happened in a big way in Week 9 as he led the Browns in targets with nine, catching all of them and turning them into 78 yards and two touchdowns. Not bad for a guy who had 20 total catches on the season before last week.

    In Week 10, Johnson is set up in a prime spot to once again see a lot of targets out of the backfield as the Atlanta Falcons and their high-flying offense visit Cleveland. The Falcons are going to put up points — they rank eighth in the league with 28.5 points per game and have scored 30 or more in five of eight games so far this season. But they’re also going to give up a lot of points with a defense that ranks 30th in DVOA and is allowing 28.2 points per game. This game has a total currently set at 50.5 and there should be lots of opportunities for Johnson to use his receiving skills out of the backfield. Take the Over on his receptions total.


    DOYLE RULES! (JUST NOT THIS WEEK)

    This didn’t get much coverage last week with Indianapolis on its bye, but Jack Doyle returned in Week 8 after missing five weeks. Quarterback Andrew Luck was certainly happy to have his top tight end back on the field as he targeted Doyle seven times, resulting in six catches for 70 yards and a touchdown. Eric Ebron was solid in Doyle’s absence and might continue to be a factor down the stretch, but Doyle is the Colts’ clear-cut No. 1 tight end when healthy.

    Indy comes out of its bye by hosting the Jaguars on Sunday afternoon in a game where the Colts are actually favored by three (imagine what this line would’ve been in the preseason). The Jags are in rough shape, but they’ve been very tough on tight ends so far this season, giving up an average of 3.5 catches for 41.6 yards. Even with a ton of injuries to their secondary, they managed to limit Zach Ertz to four catches and 26 yards the last time they took to the field. The Jags also held Rob Gronkowski to two catches for 15 yards back in Week 2. We like Doyle’s outlook for the rest of the season, but we recommend fading him this week as the Jags blanket opposing tight ends. Take the Under on his receiving yards total.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-08-2018 at 03:43 AM.

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    Tech Trends - Week 10
    Bruce Marshall

    Thursday, Nov. 8

    CAROLINA at PITTSBURGH (FOX/NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)

    Cam has covered last 2 as dog TY and Panthers now 13-5 in dog role since 2015. Steel has covered four straight TY but Tomlin just 2-5 last 7 as Heinz Field chalk. Steel “over” 5-1 last six at home.
    Tech Edge: Panthers and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


    Sunday, Nov. 11

    BUFFALO at N.Y. JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Bills on 7-3 “under” run since late 2017. They’ve also failed to cover last 2 at Jets or 3 of last 4 in series. Jets 9-3-1 vs. line since late 2016 at MetLife.
    Tech Edge: “Under” and Jets, based on “totals” and team trends.


    ATLANTA at CLEVELAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Falcs just 3-8 last 11 as reg season visitor, also "over' 6-2 this season. Browns 1-3 last 4 vs. line.
    Tech Edge: "Over," based on “totals” trends.


    NEW ORLEANS at CINCINNATI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Saints have covered last 5 away since late 2017. Also now on 16-5 spread run away from Superdome. Cincy no covers last three TY.
    Tech Edge: Saints, based on recent trends.


    WASHINGTON at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Jay Gruden on 7-4 spread run since late LY, he’s also “under” 8-3 last 11 after extended “over” run prior. Bucs however “over” 8-1 last 9 since late 2017. Tampa Bay also on 1-5 spread skid.
    Tech Edge: Redskins and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.


    NEW ENGLAND at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Belichick has covered 5 of last 6 TY and last two away after dropping previous 3 and 4 of 5 away from Gillette. Note that in front of bye week, Pats have won and covered last six., Titans “under” 9-5 since late 2017.
    Tech Edge: “Under” and Pats, based on “totals” and team trends.


    JACKSONVILLE at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Jags no wins or covers last four TY, while Indy has won and covered last two. Jags however have covered last six meetings.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Colts, based on recent trends.


    DETROIT at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Bears 3-0 as home chalk TY. “Unders” 4-1 last five meetings.
    Tech Edge: Bears and "under," based on recent trends.


    ARIZONA at KANSAS CITY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Big Red has only dropped 1 of last 6 vs. line TY (4-1-1 vs. points). Cards however only 2-5-1 last 8 as road dog. Andy Reid 12-1 vs. line last 13 in reg season.
    Tech Edge: Chiefs, based on team trends.


    L.A. CHARGERS at OAKLAND (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
    Raiders 2-6 vs. line TY, 4-15-3 last 22 on board since early 2017. Bolts 12-4 vs. spread last 16 at Oakland. “Unders” 5-1 last six in series.
    Tech Edge: Chargers and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


    MIAMI at GREEN BAY (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
    Pack 1-2 as Lambeau chalk TY and “over” 23-8 since late 2016 season.
    Tech Edge: "Over," based on "totals" trends.


    SEATTLE at L.A. RAMS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
    Note dog team 6-1 vs. points last 7 meetings. Rams only 1 cover last six TY and just 5 covers last 14 overall (5-8-1). Pete Carroll on 15-7-1 run as dog dating back to 2012.
    Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team and series trends.


    DALLAS at PHILADELPHIA (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
    Cowboys 1-3 vs. line away TY, also on 13-4 “under” run since mid 2017. Birds no covers last three at Linc after much success prior under Pederson.
    Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.


    Monday, Nov. 12

    N.Y. GIANTS at SAN FRANCISCO (ESPN, 8:25 p.m. ET)

    Eli on 11-4 “under” run since mid 2017.
    Tech Edge: “Under,” based on "totals”trends.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-08-2018 at 03:44 AM.

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    TNF - Panthers at Steelers
    Tony Mejia


    Carolina at Pittsburgh (-3.5, 52), 8:20 pm ET, FOX/NFLN

    The Panthers and Steelers are part of the NFL’s “Magnificent seven” through the regular-season’s halfway point, having suffered two or fewer losses through the first eight games. Both lead their respective divisions but are currently flying under the radar behind the four teams with the most wins so far, the Chiefs, Rams, Saints and Patriots.

    While those may be the first four teams that come to mind when discussing the NFL’s most likely conference finalists, Carolina and Pittsburgh could easily crash that party and will be looking to get a leg up on everyone else as we cross over into Week 10.

    A realistic goal for these two would be to host at least one playoff game, if not more, which will be far more likely for the team that gets out of Heinz Field with a victory to open an attractive run of games on the Thursday night schedule after a couple of October duds and last week’s dreadful Bay Area battle debacle. Only postseason contenders highlight the TNF slate the rest of the way, but tonight’s matchup is the only one that could double as a Super Bowl preview. It will also afford Carolina the opportunity to defeat the Steelers for the first time since the franchises met back in 1996. The Steelers have won the last four meetings 131-39 and have never failed to cover a spread against Carolina.

    Cam Newton will be facing the Steelers for only the second time in his career and will be dealing with Terrible Towels for the first time in his first regular-season game in Pittsburgh. He has led the Panthers to three straight victories and is certainly an NFL MVP candidate, having accounted for at least two touchdowns in every game since Week 2. He hasn’t thrown an interception since Oct. 14 and comes off his highest QB rating of the season after completing 19 of 25 passes for 247 yards in a 42-28 win over Tampa Bay.

    With speedy young receivers Curtis Samuel and D.J. Moore emerging and running back Christian McCaffrey coming into his own as one of the NFL’s most versatile weapons, Newton has gone from wondering who in the world to target to having multiple quality options every time he breaks the huddle. Tight end Greg Olsen’s return from a broken foot has given Newton his security blanket back, adding a proven red zone threat to an arsenal also featuring Devin Funchess and veteran Torrey Smith.

    Carolina’s defense isn’t as imposing as it has been in past seasons, but the offense looks to be the best we’ve seen under Ron Rivera since the 2015 version that reached the Super Bowl. The Panthers have topped the 30-point mark in four of the last six contests and Newton is on pace to throw for 30 touchdowns, which would be the second-highest number of his career.

    Liberated by new offensive coordinator Norv Turner to play to his strength and run call his own number on runs, there’s no question Newton’s consistent brilliance has made the difference in this team being in every game they’ve played this season, losing only at the Falcons and ‘Skins. Both road losses were winnable and featured the Panthers digging themselves holes with flat starts on the offensive end, so count on getting Newton on track early to be the key to things in Pittsburgh.

    The Steelers have suffered both their losses at home, so they’re certainly not invincible despite one of the league’s top homefield advantages. They’ve won and covered in four straight games, defeating Atlanta and AFC North rivals Cincinnati, Cleveland and Baltimore by a combined margin of 53 points. Despite still missing standout RB Le’Veon Bell due to a contract dispute, Pittsburgh has overcome his absence and all the distractions related to having to answer questions about it thanks to the emergence of second-year University of Pittsburgh product James Conner.

    The 230-pound back caught a season-high seven passes from Ben Roethlisberger last week, giving him 38 on the season after not coming up with a single catch as a rookie. He made his first touchdown reception in a 23-16 win at Baltimore last week and rolled off his fourth consecutive 100-yard rushing game. He has a run of game with multiple TD runs snapped by the Ravens and will now face the league’s eight-ranked defense against the ground game, so it will be interesting to see how he fares as he looks to continue taking pressure of a passing attack that features one of the league’s most feared receiving combos in Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster.

    After being upset with not getting the ball enough earlier in the season despite an obscene amount of targets making him sound crazy, Brown has settled in and has found the end zone six straight contests, bringing him up to nine touchdowns on the season. He’ll look to have another big game alongside Roethlisberger, who has recovered from an ugly 2018 debut in the Week 1 tie in Cleveland by throwing for 15 TDs while being picked off just four times over the last seven contests.

    The Steelers have won 13 of 14 games played in prime time, but will be facing a tough Panthers squad that has covered seven of 10 as road underdogs. Weather conditions shouldn’t affect the flow of both offenses despite temperatures expected to dip into the 30s because wind shouldn’t be a factor. For more information on the total, line movement, injuries, props and future figures, read on below.

    Carolina Panthers
    Season win total: 8.5 (Over +110, Under -130)
    Odds to win NFC South: 5/2 to 5/2
    Odds to win NFC: 12/1 to 12/1
    Odds to win Super Bowl: 25/1 to 25/1

    Pittsburgh Steelers
    Season win total: 10.5 (Over +125, Under -145)
    Odds to win AFC North: EVEN to 1/2
    Odds to win AFC: 5/1 to 7/2
    Odds to win Super Bowl: 12/1 to 8/1

    LINE MOVEMENT

    The Steelers were 5-to-1 to win the AFC when the season began, which made them second choice behind only New England. It is now third at 7/2 behind Kansas City (7/4) and New England (5/2). Carolina was 15-to-1 to capture the NFC, ranking tied for seventh in the pecking order within the conference alongside the Cowboys, Giants and 49ers. They're now 12-to-1, which is fifth behind the Rams (5/4), Saints (7/4), Vikings (8/1) and Eagles (10/1).

    Pittsburgh opened the season 10-to-1 to win the Super Bowl, which ranked only behind the Patriots while doubling as the same odds placed on heavyweights like the Rams and Vikings. Current championship odds are at 8-to-1 for the Black-and-Yellow. The Panthers are a 25-to-1 Super Bowl shot at the moment. The Panthers opened the season an 11-to-4 bet to win the NFC South behind the favored Saints (6/5) while Pittsburgh was a 5-to-11 favorite to claim the AFC North. Current odds and how the numbers stack up against last week are available above. .

    As far as this matchup is concerned, the Steelers were a 6.5-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced last week and opened at -5 before immediately dropping down to 4 at most shops and eventually reaching where it currently resides at -3.5.

    Pittsburgh opened at -220 on the money line and is available at -180 at the moment. If you like the road 'dog outright, a payout on the Panthers win will get you a return of +150 to +165 depending on the shop.

    INJURY CONCERNS

    Bell’s availability is consistently the talk of the town when it comes to the Steelers, but nothing has really changed on that front. He's out. A bigger issue for the Steelers is the continued absence of tackle Marcus Gilbert, who will miss another game due to a knee injury. To his credit, undrafted veteran Matt Feiler has done a nice job filling in.

    Carolina's biggest question mark is center Ryan Kalil, who hurt his ankle last week and would be a substantial loss on the road in a loud, hostile atmosphere. He's going to warm up and is expected to be a legitimate game-time decision. Safety Eric Reid and DE Mario Addison are questionable but should play, while DE Marquis Haynes and WR Torrey Smith are out.

    TOTAL TALK


    The ‘over/under’ on this matchup opened at 50 most books have gone to 52 as of Thursday morning.

    Weekly “Total Talk” writer Chris David of VegasInsider.com provided his thoughts on this matchup:

    We finally saw an ‘under’ ticket cash last Thursday as the Raiders left the offense home in their 34-3 road loss at San Francisco. This week’s total seems like an obvious ‘over’ lean based on the form for both offensive units but I’d be careful to sleep on their defenses.

    During Pittsburgh’s current winning streak, they’re averaging 31.3 PPG but only allowing 18 PPG and outside of the Browns, three of the quarterbacks (Ryan, Dalton, Flacco) aren’t guys to sleep on.

    Meanwhile, Carolina enters this game off 36 and 42-point efforts from its offense. Scoring six touchdowns on the Buccaneers last Sunday shouldn’t come as a surprise but a seven-score performance (4 TDs, 3 FGs) versus the Ravens is impressive. The one stop sign that could prevent me from leaning high on Thursday is that Carolina’s offense hasn’t travelled well (20.7 PPG) this season and that’s led to a 2-1 ‘under’ mark. Combine that with Pittsburgh’s defense only allowing 17 and 18 points in its last two at Heinz Field certainly could make you hesitant as well.

    Carolina will be making its first appearance in a primetime game this season while this will be Pittsburgh’s third game under the lights, the first two taking place in late September. The Steelers went 1-1 in those games and the totals had the same results in a win over Tampa Bay (30-27) and a loss to Baltimore (28-14).

    Non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC) have seen the ‘over’ go 21-15 (58%) this season. Pittsburgh has helped that cause with shootout wins over the Buccaneers and Falcons, and Carolina has also attributed with a pair of high-scoring victories over the Bengals and Ravens.

    Even though this total is expected to see points, totals in the fifties this season have seen split results. Through nine weeks, there have been 34 games that have seen a total close at 50 or higher and the ‘over/under’ has produced a 17-17 mark.

    Despite the great form for the Panthers, this is a tough spot traveling to Western Pennsylvania. In similar road trips, the offense was held to 17 and 21 against the Redskins and Eagles respectively. While I believe those units are better defensively than Pittsburgh, my lean would be to the Carolina Team Total ‘under’ (23 ½) on the short week.


    ALL-TIME MEETINGS (Pittsburgh 5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS last 8; OVER 4-2)

    9/21/14 Pittsburgh 37-19 vs. Carolina (PIT +3, 42)
    10/17/10 Pittsburgh 27-3 vs. Carolina (PIT -14.5, 38)
    12/17/06 Pittsburgh 37-3 at Carolina (PIT -2.5, 39)
    12/15/02 Pittsburgh 30-14 vs. Carolina (PIT -9, 39)
    12/26/99 Pittsburgh 30-20 vs. Carolina (PIT +3.5, 42.5)
    12/22/96 Carolina 18-14 vs. Pittsburgh (PIT +5.5, 36)

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    ��NFL INJURY UPDATE��

    As per reports Darren Sproles who the Eagles (-7) were looking forward to getting back, has re-aggravated his hamstring injury and is expected to be out for Sundays game against the Cowboys.
    Current total: 43

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    By: Brandon DuBreuil


    BIG BEN IN FOR A BIG NIGHT?

    Happy Thursday! Week 10 kicks off in Pittsburgh tonight and, as per tradition, we kick off today’s notes with a prop (or two). Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers are hosting Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers tonight in a matchup that features two quarterbacks that are playing great football. Both could put up some big numbers tonight in what should be a tight but high-scoring game (Pit -4, o/u 52), but we like Big Ben’s matchup might be a little more enticing.

    Roethlisberger is always on the cusp of having a huge game at home and under the bright lights, he’s even better. In 25 career primetime games at Heinz Field, Big Ben is 21-4, has averaged 284.2 passing yards, and has thrown 3.3 touchdowns to every interception. On Thursdays, he has a 6-0 record and has averaged 288.3 passing yards. The Panthers are hot but they aren’t a terrible matchup for quarterbacks, as they rank 14th as a defensive unit in DVOA but only 20th against the pass. Big Ben loves the bright lights and we’re backing him to go Over his passing yards total of 300.5.


    MAKE IT TWO WITH JUJU

    If Roethlisberger is going to have a big game through the air, chances are one of his receivers is going to have a nice night as well. We’re going to double down on the Steelers’ air attack and put some additional money behind JuJu Smith-Schuster. The second-year receiver out of USC has hit a bit of a dry spell after his torrid start to the season but there’s reason to believe a big performance is coming on TNF. First, he saw his targets get back on track last week with nine after he had just six two weeks ago against Cleveland. Second, Smith-Schuster is one of the most productive slot receivers in the league and the Panthers routinely get burned from the position. Through nine weeks, the Panthers have allowed slot receivers Adam Humphries, Russell Shepard, Tyler Boyd, and Cole Beasley to combine for 24 catches on 27 targets for 339 yards and three touchdowns. We expect JuJu to add his name to that list with a big night and we’re taking the Over 77.5 on his receiving yards total.


    DARNOLD RULED OUT

    New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold (foot) has been ruled out for Sunday’s home game against Buffalo, leaving Josh McCown to start. Darnold was spotted in a walking boot on Wednesday and will now get to rest through the Jets’ Week 11 (or longer). Darnold has really struggled of late with two touchdowns and seven interceptions in his last three games so the break comes at a good time.

    McCown was the Jets’ starter last season until he broke his hand in Week 14 — that’s also the last time he saw the field in a regular-season game. McCown is 39 years old and a bit of a journeyman but at this point, he’s probably an upgrade at QB for the Jets. Darnold just isn’t ready yet and seems to be hitting the proverbial rookie wall. This week, however, McCown gets a tough matchup with a Buffalo pass defense that is ranked second in overall DVOA and third against the pass. The Bills held Mitch Trubisky to 135 passing yards last week and held Tom Brady out of the end zone two weeks ago. Last year, McCown threw for just 187 and 140 yards in two starts against Buffalo. We expect a similar number this week and we’re taking the Under on McCown’s passing yards total.


    FOURNETTE ON TRACK

    Jacksonville running back Leonard Fournette practiced in full on Wednesday, putting him on track to return after a four-game absence. The Jaguars have struggled mightily without their star running back, losing four in a row and scoring just 11.5 points per game in the process.

    Fournette has a solid matchup in his return against a Colts defense that is allowing 94.9 yards per game to opposing backfields, but it’s unclear as to how he’ll be used. Jacksonville can’t afford to lose him again and giving him 18-20 touches in his first game back would increase his risk of re-injuring his hamstring. Jacksonville has Carlos Hyde and T.J. Yeldon behind Fournette and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them ease Fournette back this week with 12-15 touches. We’re not fading Fournette completely because of his importance to the Jaguars’ offense, so for this week, we’re passing on his yards total and instead are backing him to score a touchdown at any time.


    BELICHICK VS BUTLER

    New England heads to Tennessee this week where one of the top storylines is how cornerback Malcolm Butler will fare against his old team. Yes, the same team that benched him for the entirety of Super Bowl 52. Something happened in Minnesota during Super Bowl week. It’s a bit of a surprise that in 2018 we still don’t know what happened, but Bill Belichick knows, and Tom Brady probably know as well, and it’ll be very interesting to see how they approach the game this weekend. We’re betting on them attacking Butler as much as possible.

    Butler has been a bust of a free-agent signing so far and has allowed a league-high 618 receiving yards to opposing wideouts on the season. Against the Patriots, he’ll do most of his coverage against Josh Gordon who is coming off a 5-130-1 line against Green Bay in what was his best game of the season. Gordon has been inconsistent in his Pats career (we missed badly on his Under last week) but this week he has an easy coverage matchup and we believe Belichick and Brady will be motivated to throw at Butler early and often. Take the Over for his receiving yards total.

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    ��TNF Weather Update��

    Football weather tonight as the Panthers travel to Heinz Field to take on the Steelers.
    Forecast calling for a partly cloudy night with temp around 40 f.

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