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Thread: NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 10 (Thur. Nov. 8 - Mon. Nov. 12)

  1. #16
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    NFL Underdogs: Week 10 pointspread picks and predictions
    Jason Logan

    Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 46.5)

    The easy road for this song pick would be “Under Pressure”, but that’s too on-the-nose. Jacksonville is, undoubtedly, under a lot of pressure to turn its 3-5 season around after playing for the AFC Championship last year.

    One thing that worked for the Jaguars during that run to the conference title game was the play of running back Leonard Fournette, who has missed all but two games in 2018 due to injury. Last season, Jacksonville’s best performances came when Fournette got rolling - giving balance to this attack - and injecting him back into the mix against a sour Colts defense will help take some of the back-breaking load off QB Blake Bortles. God knows he can't handle it.

    In fact, you could say Fournette and an efficient Jags ground game (that includes T.J. Yeldon and Carlos Hyde) is Bortles’ best friend… that he’s ever had.

    If the return of Fournette and the run isn’t enough, Jacksonville does take on an Indianapolis defense that allowed peashooter offenses like the Jets and Raiders put up big points and an offense that has given the ball away 13 times – seventh most this season. That careless play will help jumpstart a Jaguars defense missing its edge when it comes to creating turnovers.

    Pick:
    Jacksonville +3


    Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-10, 50)

    I’m sure when the final whistle blew on the Rams’ 45-35 loss to New Orleans Sunday, some members of the 1972 Miami Dolphins blasted “We Are The Champions” to celebrate another season as the NFL’s only undefeated team in history.

    For sports bettors, that final whistle meant looking ahead to the Week 10 lines and the Seattle Seahawks rolling into La-La Land. Oddsmakers opened the Rams at -9.5 and early money was buying up the bounceback, pushing Los Angeles to -10. And that’s where we strike.

    In sports betting, it’s about getting the best number – you have to “Play The Game” – and we are, snatching up the key of Seahawks +10 with some books already trickling down to -9.5 and even as low as -9.

    Seattle was a dropped pass in the end zone (and a 2-point convert) away from tying the other L.A. team at the end of regulation last week and before that loss each of its three other defeats came by seven points or less. This defense has allowed 19 or fewer points in five of its last six outings (lost 33-31 to the Rams in Week 5) and that’s led the Seahawks to a 4-2 ATS mark in those games.

    Running back Chris Carson’s health and effectiveness are big questions Sunday, but Seattle does have the methodical pace and rushing chops to win the time of possession battle versus Los Angeles (which was bulldozed by 141 rushing yards by the Saints). The Seahawks also have two potential gamebreakers anxious for touches in Rashaad Penny and C.J. Prosise.

    This is a tough situational spot for the Rams, coming off a huge game versus New Orleans and then looking ahead to next Monday’s trip to Mexico City to face Kansas City.

    Pick:
    Seattle +10


    New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 44)

    It’s no Lil Wayne song, but Queen’s “I Want to Break Free” could be the anthem for Odell Beckham Jr., Saquon Barkley, and this New York Giants offense.

    Heading into the season, the Big Apple buzz around those playmakers was huge. But, here we sit entering the Week 10 Monday nighter with that offense topping 20 points just twice in eight games. This could be the stage for a breakout performance, with the G-Men traveling to San Francisco to face a Niners defense that's been gashed for big scores all season. The 49ers are getting far too much credit for their last two showings, in which they held Arizona and Oakland to a collective 21 points.

    New York has played its best football on the road, losing by an average margin of under two points per game and posting a 3-1 ATS mark as a visitor. With an extra half-point hook showing up on spread, I can’t help myself: I want it all. I want it all. And I want it now.

    Pick:
    N.Y. Giants +3.5

    Last week: 2-1 ATS
    Season: 19-8 ATS

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    By: Brandon DuBreuil


    ROBINSON RETURNS…

    Bears wide receiver Allen Robinson told reporters that his groin is 100 percent and is also practicing in full, meaning he’ll likely return on Sunday against the Lions. Robinson has missed the last two games but originally suffered the injury in Week 6 and Chicago is hoping that he returns to form and becomes the No. 1 receiving threat it was looking for when it signed him in the offseason.

    Mitch Trubisky and the Bears will welcome Robinson’s return, but bettors shouldn’t expect much out of him this week against a Lions defense that allows just 9.5 receptions per game to wide receivers. Robinson has had one big game this season with 10 catches for 83 yards in Week 2, but his next best game was a five-catch, 64-yard performance in Week 5. Trubisky, meanwhile, has gone a bit cold with passing totals of 135 and 220 in his last two games. We don’t like this spot for Robinson — or any of the Bears’ receivers — and we’re taking the Under on his receiving yards total.


    BUT IT COULD BE HOWARD’S BIG DAY

    In sticking with the Bears-Lions matchup, there’s a lot of reasons to like running back Jordan Howard on Sunday. Above, we mentioned that the Lions allow just 9.5 receptions to receivers per game. Well, there’s a reason for that and it’s because teams simply don’t pass that often against them, instead choosing to run the ball on 47.4 percent of plays. Detroit’s defense is allowing 142.5 rushing yards per game, 5.14 yards per carry, and is ranked 28th in rush defense DVOA. Howard gets more work when the Bears are ahead and oddsmakers expect that to happen on Sunday as Chicago is favored by a touchdown. He has been hot and cold all season, but we expect the Bears to run all day against the Lions. We’re taking the Over on Howard’s rushing yards total.


    MARTIN STILL LIMITED

    Oakland running back Doug Martin (hip) was still limited in practice on Thursday but is expected to suit up on Sunday as the Raiders host the Chargers. Martin looked decent in drawing the start two weeks ago against Indianapolis, running for 72 yards on 13 carries, but last week he went for just 49 yards on 11 carries as Jalen Richard officially was the starter.

    It appears as if Martin’s usage going forward will be tied to the game script and, considering the Raiders are in full-blown tank mode, that’s bad news for his backers. Two weeks ago, Oakland managed to keep the game somewhat close until the Colts closed with a 21-point fourth and that allowed the Raiders to keep running the ball with Martin. Last week, they were forced to abandon the run for most of the second half as San Francisco opened a huge lead early in the third. This week, it’s likely that the Raiders will have to abandon the run again as they are a 10-point home underdog in a game where the Chargers have a team total of 30.5. Take the Under on Martin’s rushing yards total.


    JONES ON THE RISE

    There were high hopes for Packers running back Aaron Jones last week after Ty Montgomery was shipped to Baltimore and he didn’t disappoint with 85 combined yards (and winning us a bet). The only negative thing you could say about him is that he had a game-changing fumble but that didn’t affect our Over bet. Jones now has 162 rushing yards on 26 carries over his past two games and is finally emerging as a bell cow and was on the field for a season-high 40 snaps last week at New England. It’s also very encouraging that the Packers went back to Jones after his fumble basically cost the Packers the game last week.

    On Sunday, Jones gets a soft matchup against a Miami defense that is giving up 136.1 rushing yards per game. The Packers are also a 10-point home favorite which is exactly what you want when betting on a running back. Jones has proven on the season that he’s explosive as he’s averaging six yards per carry. All he needs is more touches and now he’s getting them. Take the Over on his rushing yards total.


    SPROLES AGGRAVATES HAMMY

    Eagles running back Darren Sproles was hoping to return on Sunday but that isn’t going to happen after he re-injured his hamstring in his first practice back. It’s a tough break for the 35-year-old who looked to have a role in Philadelphia’s offense, at least from his usage in his one and only game back in Week 1. At this point, Sproles just can't stay healthy and it would be a surprise to see him on a football field again.

    This news clears a little space in the Eagles’ backfield, but it’s still crowded. Wendell Smallwood appears to be the starter and has gotten 50 percent or more of the snaps over the past three weeks. His touches are down in each of the last three weeks, however, mostly due to the emergence of Josh Adams. Corey Clement continues to get a few touches as well, although his stock is trending way down due to his 3.3 yards per carry. The Eagles have a decent matchup in Week 10 against a Cowboys defense that will be without Sean Lee, but there’s just too much uncertainty as Philadelphia seems to be taking a true committee approach. We recommend staying away from the Eagles’ backfield this week and re-evaluating after Sunday night.

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    Top Total Plays - Week 10
    by Kyle Markus

    The “over” hit on “Thursday Night Football,” continuing a yearlong trend of high scores. The rest of the Week 10 games will be held this weekend, and it will be interesting to see how many of them continue the offensive dominance we have seen so often to this point.

    The oddsmakers are well aware of what is going on and have gradually ticked up the scoring totals. Even so, the offensive fireworks have continued and the “over” has been the right call the majority of the time. Here are some of the best choices on total plays in Week 10 of the NFL season:

    The Buffalo Bills’ offense is historically inept, and it lived down to that billing last week against the Bears. It was so bad that Chicago put up a bunch of easy scores and the “over” hit. The Bills are facing off with the New York Jets on Sunday and the scoring total is at a microscopic 36.5 points. Even that is too high as these teams are going to put the sport back a couple decades with their effort. Take the “under” in this one.

    The New Orleans Saints are hitting the road to face the Cincinnati Bengals. Both offenses are high-powered and the oddsmakers have put the scoring total at 54 points. New Orleans is usually not quite as explosive on the road, and the Bengals are missing star receiver A.J. Green. Those two factors should keep this game “under” the scoring total.

    The Chicago Bears offense has been impressive lately, and so has their defense. The Bears are hosting the Detroit Lions and the total is only 44 points. That number looks way too low. Both teams have the capability to put up points, so bang the “over” in this one. This is looking like one of the best bets of the week.

    The Jacksonville Jaguars have not been as dominant defensively this season as expected, and their scoring total against the Indianapolis Colts is listed at 46.5 points. Colts star quarterback Andrew Luck has been great lately but look for Jacksonville to step up in this matchup. This one is going to be lower-scoring than expected, and roll with the “under.”

    The Los Angeles Chargers are going to be double digit favorites on the road against the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders might be the worst team in the NFL and have a Swiss Cheese defense. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is going to light it up in this one. The Raiders will throw a lot late as they try to come back and a score in the fourth quarter will help the “over” hit in this matchup.

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    Public bettors pile on Saints' odds, sharps eye Bengals in NFL Week 10 matchup
    Patrick Everson

    New Orleans has plenty to shout about after winning seven consecutive games (6-1 ATS). The Saints have gotten a flood of tickets this week, moving from -4.5 to -5.5 at Cincinnati.

    The NFL Week 10 Sunday docket has plenty of matchups piquing bettors’ interest. We check in on the action and line movement for a handful of games, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

    New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals – Open: +4.5; Move: +4; Move: +4.5; Move: +5; Move: +5.5

    New Orleans has won seven in a row SU while cashing in its last six games. In Week 9, the Saints (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) dealt the Los Angeles Rams their first loss, fending off a big comeback to win a shootout 45-35 as 1.5-point home underdogs.

    Cincinnati won and covered in four of its first five games, then had a two-game hiccup before getting back on track in Week 9. Like New Orleans, the Bengals (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) let a big lead slip away, but hung on for a 37-34 victory over Tampa Bay as 3.5-point home favorites.

    “Very lopsided ticket count on the Saints, with close to 80 percent backing New Orleans,” Murray said of activity on a 1 p.m. ET kickoff. “The Bengals are down multiple top playmakers, including A.J. Green, but I know a number of sharp guys who like the Bengals this week. The book hopes they get this one right.”

    Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Open: Pick; Move: -1; Move: -1.5; Move: -2; Move: -2.5; Move: -3; Move: -3.5

    Washington remains atop the middling NFC East, despite having its three-game SU and ATS win streak snapped in Week 9. The Redskins (5-3 SU and ATS) went off as 1.5-point home favorites against Atlanta and got steamrolled 38-14.

    Tampa Bay is trying to get the pirate ship back on even keel, after losing five of its last six games. The Buccaneers (3-5 SU and ATS) showed a little fight in Week 9 at Carolina, rallying from a 35-7 deficit to get within 35-28 in the fourth quarter. But the Bucs stopped there, losing 42-28 as 6-point ‘dogs.

    Tampa’s struggles haven’t dissuaded bettors from backing the Bucs in a 1 p.m. ET matchup.

    “We had a guy lay Bucs -1.5 for $30,000 early in the week, and we need the Redskins for a decent amount,” Murray said. “The public is mostly backing the Bucs as well, and it makes sense, with all the injuries the Redskins have on the offensive line.”

    Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts – Open: -3; Move: -3.5; Move: -3; Move: -2.5; Move: -3

    Jacksonville got out of the gate 3-1 SU and ATS, including a convincing home win over New England, but has been a shell of that squad since. The Jaguars (3-5 SU and ATS) dropped their last four games SU and ATS, including a 24-18 setback to Philadelphia as 3.5-point pups in a Week 8 tilt in London.

    Indianapolis is nothing to write home about either – although the Twitter account @CaptAndrewLuck pens spectacular letters, and you should definitely follow that feed. But the Colts (3-5 SU, 4-4 SU) won and cashed their last two, dumping Oakland 42-28 as 3.5-point road faves in Week 8.

    Both teams are coming off their bye week heading into this 1 p.m. ET meeting.

    “We had a guy early in the week take the Jaguars +3.5 (-110) to win $60,000,” Murray said. “Other than his bet, the action has been pretty even on this game. Both teams need this game if they hope to catch Houston in the AFC South.”

    Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns – Open: +3.5; Move: -4; Move: -4.5; Move: -5.5; Move: -6

    Cleveland dumped its coach and offensive coordinator, but that wasn’t enough of a spark against one of the league’s best in Week 9. The Browns (2-6-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) lost to Kansas City 37-21 catching 7.5 points at home.

    Atlanta is on a three-game win streak, climbing back to .500 after a 1-4 start. The Falcons (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) went off as 1.5-point ‘dogs at Washington in Week 9, but exited with an easy 38-14 victory.

    “If you can believe it, we are going to need the Browns big in this game,” Murray half-jokingly said of another 1 p.m. ET start. “The public is once again running to the window to bet a road favorite in Cleveland, and the line has pushed up all the way to Falcons -6. Close to 90 percent of the tickets at The SuperBook are on the Falcons, and I have to think there’s some value on the Browns at this number.

    “I feel like I’ve said that before.”

    Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: -6; Move: -6.5; Move: -7; Move: -6.5; Move: -7

    Defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia hasn’t exactly lit it up this year, but is still right there in a lackluster NFC East. The Eagles (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) are coming off their bye week, after topping Jacksonville 24-18 as 3.5-point favorites in London in Week 8.

    Dallas is drawing ever closer to must-win territory. The Cowboys (3-5 SU and ATS) dropped three of their last four games, falling flat at home under the Monday night spotlight last week in a 28-14 loss to Tennessee as 4.5-point faves.

    “We opened this game Eagles -6, and it went up after the Cowboys’ dreadful loss to the Titans,” Murray said. “It’s a good spot for Philly, coming off its bye week and facing a Dallas team that played on ‘Monday Night Football.’ I like the Cowboys’ defense, but I have little to no confidence in Jason Garrett, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ offense. We are going to need them in this game.”

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    Gridiron Angles - Week 10
    Vince Akins

    NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

    -- The Patriots are 11-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) since Oct 09, 2016 when at least their last two games have gone under the total.

    NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

    -- The Bills are 0-12 ATS (-17.3 ppg) since Dec 17, 2005 as a dog coming off a loss as a home dog where they scored less than expected.

    TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

    -- The Cardinals are 13-0 OU (12.2 ppg) since Sep 20, 2015 on the road coming off a game where David Johnson had at least 40 receiving yards.

    NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

    -- The Chiefs are 0-13-2 OU (-8.0 ppg) since Dec 13, 2015 at home coming off a game where they allowed less points than expected.

    NFL O/U OVER TREND:

    -- The Lions are 10-0 OU (12.5 ppg) since Nov 22, 2009 coming off a loss as a road dog of more than three points where they scored less than 14 points.

    -- The Buccaneers are 0-13 ATS (-9.65 ppg) when they are at home after two away losses.

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    SNF - Cowboys at Eagles


    Fresh off getting blanked in the 2nd half of their disappointing 28-14 home loss on MNF, the Dallas Cowboys head out on the road for another prime time affair, this time against the defending champs.

    Not only are the Cowboys on a short week here (after looking awful for the final 30 minutes vs Tennessee), the Philadelphia Eagles come into this game off their bye week. That's about as good as it gets in terms of a situational spot for the Eagles, but will it be enough to help them cover the touchdown they are laying on SNF?

    Odds: Philadelphia (-7); Total set at 43

    It's seemingly become an annual tradition in November that questions begin to surface about Jason Garrett's future as the head coach of the Dallas Cowboys, and that's definitely been the case this week. Owner Jerry Jones gave him that dreaded “vote of confidence” that he won't be making an in-season coaching change earlier in the week, despite talking heads and former Cowboys alumni calling for a major organizational shake-up soon.

    There is no question that the Cowboys have a litany of issues to deal with right now as their offense has been putrid all year long. Dallas has only scored more than 20 points twice in eight games, and while they did go out and trade for WR Amari Cooper, you've really got to wonder if QB Dak Prescott was nothing more than a one-hit wonder.

    This incarnation of the Cowboys has been built through the offensive line to be a predominantly run-heavy team that plays solid defense, but in today's NFL you need a QB that can produce through the air. Prescott may or may not be that guy long-term for Dallas, but if he and the Cowboys want any shot at a playoff berth this year, they'd better be prepared to take some shots and come away with the win this week.

    It won't be easy for Dallas though, as this Eagles team is starting to get their swagger back. Health has been the biggest problem for Philly through eight weeks, but the bye week should've helped with some of that, at least in terms of active guys resting some bumps and bruises. Philly knows the NFC East is up for the taking now with Dallas slumping and Washington dealing with the massive injury concerns.

    Eagles fans (and the team) feel like they've not come anywhere close to performing to their potential this year, but even with such a favorable spot for Philly this week, we are still halfway through the season and usually by this point you are what your record says you are.

    In any walk of life you can only survive on reputation for so long, and with what the Eagles have done so far in 2018, I'm don't believe they deserve to be laying such a big number. I've already touched on the Cowboys offensive issues this year that everyone readily recognizes, but at 5.3 yards per play for Dallas, it's not like they are well behind Philly's 5.4 yards per play offensively this year. Flip that to the other side of the ball, and Dallas actually comes in with the better number on yards per play allowed (5.3 vs 5.7), so explain to me why the Eagles are TD favorites?

    One could also argue that the Cowboys have actually played the harder schedule as well through eight weeks, as the combined record of the Cowboys opponents this year entering the week is 32-33 SU, while the record of Eagles opponents comes in at 29-35 SU. With games against four common opponents (Carolina, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and the NY Giants), the Eagles and Cowboys have identical 2-2 SU records with both losses for either side coming against the Panthers and Titans. So I ask again, why are the Eagles laying a TD here?

    This line is too heavily influenced by the perception of both teams, not the reality for them, and with the Cowboys poor effort on MNF being the freshest memory in most bettor's memory banks right now, it's easy to see why 80% of the money has already come the Eagles way. But you can't count me as part of that majority, as this is still way too many points to give the Cowboys, even in a tough situational spot, with essentially their season, and possibly direction of their organization on the line.

    The Cowboys have covered the number in five of their last six trips to Philly (as part of a 10-3 ATS run in this rivalry for road teams overall), and a 4-1 ATS run in division play for Dallas is the final bit of support I need to confidently take the points (and even a bit of the +275 ML price) with Dallas here.

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    According to reports, Seahawks RB Chris Carson (hip) is expected to sit today @ Rams.
    Current Pointspread: Rams -8.5
    Current Total: 51

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    Essentials - Week 10
    Tony Mejia


    Sunday
    Buffalo at N.Y. Jets (-7/37.5) , 1 p.m. ET, CBS:
    For the first time this season, rookie Sam Darnold will sit and watch veteran Josh McCown, which was originally the plan for 2018. The 21-year-old Darnold hasn’t fared well of late but hasn’t been benched, battling a strained foot that has kept him out of practices this week. There was talk that he’d be available in a backup role, but Davis Webb has instead been called up from the practice squad. Unfortunately for McCown, who comes off a career year and threw for over 2,900 yards and had an 18-9 TD-to-INT ratio last season, he won’t have his favorite target from last season, Robby Anderson, available due to an ankle injury. This year’s most targeted Jets receiver, Quincy Enunwa, will be in the mix after his own ankle issue has healed sufficiently.

    Todd Bowles could very well be coaching the final game of his Jets tenure given the bye week ahead, so the expectation here is that he’ll go down swinging with his defense against Bills new starting QB Matt Barkley, who hasn’t started since Jan. 1, 2017 and was just signed on Halloween. Buffalo is killing time until rookie Josh Allen is able to return from an elbow injury and has seemingly given up on Nathan Peterman, the culprit most responsible for the Bills becoming the first team in league history to have thrown as many pick-sixes as TD passes through a half-season. Expect LeSean McCoy to be heavily featured since ex-Jet Chris Ivory, who has been one of the few bright spots on the Buffalo offense, is unlikely to participate after injuring his shoulder last week. Tight end Chares Clay is nursing a shoulder issue. Considering that both defenses have playmakers and have proven capable, it’s no surprise that the lowest total of the NFL season has been placed on his one. The ‘under’ has prevailed in five of seven meetings between these AFC East rivals. The Jets have won three of the past four encounters.

    Atlanta (-6/50.5) at Cleveland, 1 p.m. ET, FOX:
    Interim head coach Gregg Williams might have been able to lock up the Browns gig permanently if he’d found a way to shut down the Chiefs last week. Nobody else has succeeded either so it’s no deal-breaker, but Kansas City scored 37 and coasted to a win in Cleveland, becoming the fifth team in six weeks to score 26 or more points against Williams’ defense. The Falcons are up as the last test before a much-needed bye week and have scored 31 or more points in five of seven, so you have to like their odds of continuing to flourish offensively. QB Matt Ryan’s ability to beat the blitz will determine the winner here, so it will help the Falcons’ cause that Calvin Ridley (concussion) and Mohamed Sanu (hip) have been cleared to take the field alongside Julio Jones, who comes off his first TD reception last week and has three 100-yards games in his last four appearances.

    Unlike New York’s Darnold and Buffalo’s Allen, Cleveland rookie Baker Mayfield has stayed healthy enough to make his Week 10 start. That wasn’t without drama though. He made a visit to the dreaded tent last week after getting dinged up but will start here and will have his full complement of weapons with WR Antonio Callaway and TE David Njoku both cleared to play. Up front, center J.C. Tretter remains questionable but tackle Desmond Harrison practiced in full and will be available. The Browns defense is also going to have safeties Denzel Ward and Damarious Randall available to help contend with Atlanta’s excellent receiving corps. The Falcons lost their first two road games this season but won at Washington last week 38-14 and are looking for their first four-game win streak since their 2016 Super Bowl season. They’ll be throwing newly-signed pass-rusher Bruce Irvin into the mix for the first time.

    New Orleans (-6/54) at Cincinnati, 1 p.m. ET, FOX:
    The Bengals come off a well-timed bye week since they nearly blew an 18-point lead to Tampa Bay before Randy Bullock converted on a 44-yarder at the gun to secure a 37-34, snapping a two-game winning streak. Cincinnati is 5-3 through the first eight games but by no means enters the season’s second half bright-eyed and bushy-tailed. Top wide receiver A.J. Green is dealing with turf toe and won’t play, which moves every other receiver up to a role that they may not be ready for, but at least they’ve had a week to work with Andy Dalton in preparation for this one. Cincy’s defense remains banged up as leader and top LB Vontaze Burfict, LB Nick Vigil, pass rusher Carl Lawson and corner Darqueze Dennard are all still too injured to play despite the week off.

    The Saints arrive as the hottest team in the NFL, coming in with seven straight victories, the last three of which have been particularly impressive. Following a Week 6 bye, New Orleans won at Baltimore and Minnesota before knocking off the previously unbeaten Rams last Sunday. If there’s a letdown coming, this is likely to be it, since this will be only the third game they’ve played in an open structure this season. There have been elements that Drew Brees and the offense had to deal with in wins over the Giants and Ravens, but the 40-degree temperatures will be a new variable. Wind shouldn’t be a factor. The Saints are 5-5 straight up in their last 10 regular-season games played in outdoor stadiums but have won six of eight. They’ll be working somewhat short-handed at receiver since newly acquired Dez Bryant tore his achilles in his first practice with the team while Cam Meredith and Ted Ginn are on IR.

    Washington at Tampa Bay (-3.5/51), 1 p.m. ET, FOX:
    The Bucs have dropped five of six, replaced franchise cornerstone Jameis Winston with Ryan Fitzpatrick and have given up 30 or more points in each of their losses. Linebacker Kwon Alexander has also been lost during this stretch and rookie corner M.J. Stewart won’t be available to aid the NFL’s worst defense. Mercifully for the Bucs, they won’t have to face a ‘Skins offense anywhere near full strength since tackle Trent Williams and guards Brandon Scherff and Shawn Lauvao have all been lost. WR Paul Richardson is done for the season, Jamison Crowder remains out and Chris Thompson hasn’t overcome a rib injury sufficiently enough to return. Alex Smith will thus be relying on undrafted guys like Kapri Bibbs and Maurice Harris in key roles as Washington looks to maintain its NFC East edge.

    Washington scored just 14 points against Atlanta last week and lost all those guys in-game, so it’s hard to tell what we’re going to get here. Fitzpatrick will go after Washington’s star-studded secondary with Mike Evans cleared and productive DeSean Jackson, Adam Humphries, Chris Godwin and tight ends O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate all healthy, so the pace in this one should be reliant upon whether we see some early scoring. Tampa led after the first 15 minutes in each of its first three games but has trailed in four of five, getting outscored 44-9 in those games. Washington has led after the first quarter in four of its five wins and has yet to win a game it trailed after the first 15.

    New England (-6.5/47) at Tennessee, 1 p.m. ET, CBS:
    Running back Sony Michel will return for the Patriots, so don’t expect to see Cordarrelle Patterson play as large a role as he did in Sunday night’s victory over the Packers. Rob Gronkowski won’t be out there again, sidelined by a back issue that the Patriots are right to be extra cautious with. After all, there’s still over a month remaining until they truly need him and they’ve been getting along just fine, stretching their win streak to six games and scoring over 30 for the fifth time during this stretch. Tom Brady hasn’t missed many throws and will be a handful for the Titans defense to deal with on a short week. Tackle Shaq Mason won’t be available for New England, so expect Tennessee to be aggressive in trying to get after Brady as a defensive brain trust that should have at least some decent theories on how to contain the Patriots looks to win their third game as a home underdog this season.

    The Titans surprised the Cowboys as Marcus Mariota produced some clutch plays on third down and delivered his most productive outing of the season. The former No. 2 overall pick threw two touchdowns without being intercepted for the first time since Dec. 2017 and only the third time in the last two years. He also ran for a score for only the second time this season, so if he’s healthy, his ability to thrive as a dual threat could be a game-changer. Tackle Jack Conklin remains out for the Titans, who may at least get back receivers Tajae Sharpe and Taywan Taylor from foot injuries. Defensive tackle Bennie Logan and pass rusher Derrick Morgan are both questionable and would really be missed if they can’t participate. Tennessee is 12-3 SU (11-3-1 ATS) at home over its last 15 in Nashville, but the Pats have won 16 of 19 on the road and have won five straight in the series, last losing in Tennesee in 2002, Brady’s second year as New England’s starter.

    Jacksonville (-3/47) at Indianapolis, 1 p.m. ET, CBS:
    The Jaguars will get back RB Leonard Fournette, which means the pressure on Blake Bortles to at least be serviceable ramps up further. Make no mistake, if the Jags are struggling with the Colts due to Bortles being inaccurate or sloppy with the ball, he’ll be pulled in favor of Landry Jones, who was signed prior to last week’s bye after Bortles’ shoulder was injured in London. Bortles has thrown 12 TDs and just three picks over his career vs. the Colts, which includes a 10-0 TD-to-INT ratio over the last six. The Jaguars went into the bye extremely banged up in the secondary and will again be without starter A.J. Bouye and backup Quenton Meeks but do return D.J. Hayden to the fold and will see Jalen Ramsey be as healthy as he’s been since Tyreek Hill literally ran him ragged in Week 5 to start this four-game losing streak the team is embarked upon.

    Jacksonville remains only 2.5 games behind Houston in the AFC South and come in tied with the Colts. Indy has safeties Clayton Geathers and Malik Hooker available and have seen Andrew Luck throw seven touchdown passes without being picked off since getting T.Y. Hilton back in the lineup. Indianapolis has won two straight for the first time since 2015 and haven’t won three in a row since earlier that year.

    Detroit at Chicago (-7/44.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX:
    The Lions and Bears play twice in the next three weeks, so Detroit could keep Matt Patricia’s first season from devolving into a rebuilding project if it is able to get its act together. The offense has disappeared in setbacks against the Seahawks and Vikings, putting up touchdowns in just three of their last nine contests. In their first game playing without Golden Tate, neither Marvin Jones nor Kenny Golladay was able to step up and help Matthew Stafford put together chunk plays. The veteran QB has struggled himself, and it should be disconcerting that the most consistent weapon over the past few weeks, versatile rookie RB Kerryon Johnson, will be playing through an ankle injury.

    Chicago was lights out last week against the slumping Bills and gets back Khalil Mack, who has been sidelined the past few weeks, so a group that has shut down the Jets and Bills should be formidable as they look to improve to 4-1 at home. Wide receivers Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel are both now ‘probable’ and could prove troublesome with top Lions corner Darius Slay being ruled out. Top pass-rusher Ziggy Ansah (shoulder) will be available as he tries to get going in what’s been an injury-filled season, but Matt Nagy ideally wants QB Mitch Trubisky to get rid of the ball quickly, which should neutralize his impact. Wind gusts should be minimal and are expected to only reach about to 10-to-15 miles per hour, so both strong-armed quarterbacks shouldn’t have problems managing mild November weather for Chicago.

    Arizona at Kansas City (-16/49.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS:
    Sunday’s largest spread resides here, where rookie QB Josh Rosen looks to try and keep pace with the NFL’s most productive scoring offense. He’s beaten the 49es twice and hasn’t experienced much success otherwise, leading Arizona to over 20 points only once this season, but Rosen did throw multiple touchdown passes for the first time in his pro career and finally hooked up with Larry Fitzgerald, helping him end his end zone drought. First-time offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich will have no choice but to try and open things up, so it will be interesting to see what this offense can come up with.

    Its best bet might be for a secondary that features Patrick Peterson and emerging young safety Budda Baker to create turnovers, especially since Mahomes has been picked off seven times over the last five games and hasn’t had a turnover-free game since Oct. 1. Still, he’s already 29 touchdown passes for the season and has failed to top the 30-point mark only once. On that note, Kansas City’s lowest-scoring game is just one point less than Arizona’s highest output. Center Mitch Morse remains out as the Chiefs continue to work with a patchwork offensive line, a task made easier by the fact most of the team’s key playmakers are healthy. WR Sammy Watkins (ankle) is doubtful to play, but the defense will be welcoming back standout pass-rusher Justin Houston to try and get after Rosen on predictable passing downs.

    Miami at Green Bay (-10/48), 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS:
    - The Packers have had trouble getting started in the past and always seem to get their act together so a November must-win home game is nothing new. Coming off a tough loss to New England where a costly Aaron Jones’ fumble kept them from likely taking a fourth-quarter lead, Green Bay has to be frustrated since it also saw an opportunity to potentially beat the Rams slip through the fingers of a now dismissed Ty Montgomery. Green Bay is close to what we typically expect it to be under Aaron Rodgers’ watch, but the team went 3-8 down the stretch last season and has done far more losing than we’re used to seeing from them of late. With road games in Seattle and Minnesota closing out November, it’s absolutely crucial that the Packers stop the bleeding here. Unfortunately, they’ll be without corner Kevin King and have tackle Bryan Bulaga, WR Randall Cobb and LB Blake Martinez questionable.

    That still leaves them better off than the Dolphins, which snapped a run of four losses in five games by defeating the Jets last week but take the field in Green Bay with Brock Osweiler still filling in at quarterback for an injured Ryan Tannehill. Three starting offensive linemen, tackle Ja’Wuan James, center Ted Larsen and guard Laremy Tunsil are all questionable, so Osweiler may be under siege. Defensively, LB Kiko Alonso should play and safety Reshad Jones is also going to be utilized despite telling defensive coordinator Matt Burke that he wasn’t going back in the game last week. Just another day in paradise. Speaking of which, the Dolphins are leaving sunny South Florida, where they’ve played three of the last four, for frosty Green Bay, where game-time temperatures will be at 32 degrees and snow flurries could be part of the festivities.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-12-2018 at 01:37 PM.

  9. #24
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    MNF - Giants at 49ers
    Kevin Rogers


    LAST WEEK

    The Giants (1-7 SU, 3-5 ATS) are fresh off the bye as their nightmare season crosses over to the second half on Monday. New York suffered its fifth consecutive loss its last time out in a Week 8 home setback to Washington. The Redskins held off the Giants, 20-13 as New York was limited to less than 20 points for the sixth time this season, while dropping their 20th game in the last 24 opportunities since the start of 2017.

    The final score against Washington is partially misleading as the Giants didn’t reach the end zone until 17 seconds remained in regulation. Eli Manning hooked up with Evan Engram on a two-yard touchdown connection, but it was too little, too late as the Giants dropped to 0-4 SU/ATS at Met Life Stadium in 2018. Second overall pick Saquon Barkley was limited to 38 yards rushing on 13 carries as the former Penn State star has racked up 50 or fewer yards on the ground four times in the last five games.

    The 49ers (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS) are feeling good about themselves after smashing Bay Area rival Oakland, 34-3 to end a six-game slide. San Francisco turned to third-string quarterback Nick Mullens as the former Southern Mississippi standout diced up the Raiders’ defense for 262 yards and three touchdown passes. Running back Raheem Mostert scored his first NFL touchdown on a 52-yard scamper as the 49ers won at home for the first time since Week 2 against Detroit.

    BLUE ROAD BOOM

    For whatever reason, the Giants have put together a more competitive effort off a home loss this season. Since losing at Dallas in Week 2, New York has covered in three straight road contests, including two coming off home losses. The Giants routed the Texans in Week 3 as 6 ½-point underdogs for their only win of the season, while cashing in close losses to the Panthers and Falcons. In fact, New York has cashed in three straight opportunities off an ATS loss.

    SALTY CHALK

    The 49ers have not fared well in the favorite role this season as Kyle Shanahan’s team owns an 0-3 ATS record when laying points. San Francisco opened as a favorite against Oakland, but that line flipped with the news of Mullens starting. The Niners failed to cash in a Week 2 victory over the Lions, while losing twice to the Cardinals in the favorite role.

    SERIES HISTORY

    It’s been a long time since there has been major importance placed on the Giants and 49ers, two teams that accounted for five Super Bowl wins in the 1980’s. Last season, the Niners were listed as a three-point home underdog against the Giants as San Francisco picked up its first win of the season following an 0-9 start in a 31-21 triumph. San Francisco erased a 13-10 second quarter deficit by scoring three consecutive touchdowns, as quarterback C.J. Beathard tossed a pair of touchdowns in the win.

    These two squads did hook up in the 2011 NFC Championship game at Candlestick Park as the Giants edged the 49ers in overtime, 20-17 to reach the Super Bowl and ultimately beat the Patriots. Since then, the two teams have split four matchups, while the Giants are seeking their first win in the Bay Area since 2012.

    MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

    The Giants are appearing on Monday night football for the second time in four weeks after scoring a late touchdown to grab the backdoor at Atlanta in Week 7. New York owns a 2-6 record in its past eight appearances on Mondays dating back to 2014, as its last road win in this spot came at Miami in 2015. San Francisco is also playing a Monday nighter for the second time in 2018, as the 49ers blew a late lead in a three-point loss at Green Bay in Week 6. Amazingly the 49ers have covered in 12 of 13 times on Monday night dating back to 2008, but this is the first time they are favored since pulling off a 14-point victory at St. Louis in 2014.

    HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

    NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in on this contest as San Francisco will likely ride out the rest of the season with Mullens under center, “Mullens is the story in this otherwise easily overlooked Monday night game that ESPN would surely love to have a re-draw of. He was undrafted in 2017 after starting 41 games over four seasons for Southern Miss. He posted good numbers his junior and senior seasons leading winning teams and compiling many records at the program. He spent last season on the practice squad and has been on the active roster since Jimmy Garoppolo’s injury. Beathard had been productive for the 49ers but with 12 turnovers in five games, Mullens has a chance to earn the job for the rest of the season ahead of a Week 11 bye week.”

    On the flip side with the Giants, the numbers for Manning haven’t been as bad despite their record, “Manning remains the starting quarterback for New York despite only eight touchdowns in eight games though his numbers are better than might be expected, completing over 68 percent of his passes and throwing only six interceptions in 315 attempts. He has been sacked 31 times as the offensive line has been the big issue for New York, making a productive first half for Barkley look even more impressive. Manning ranks 22nd in the league in QB Rating and 29th in QBR and many Giants fans will point out that the team has provided a lot of fourth quarter production in losing efforts as the numbers could be worse,” Nelson notes.

    GAME PROPS – According to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook

    Total Gross Passing Yards – Eli Manning
    OVER 275 ½ (-110)
    UNDER 275 ½ (-110)

    Total Touchdown Passes – Eli Manning
    OVER 1 ½ (+120)
    UNDER 1 ½ (-140)

    Total Rushing Yards – Saquon Barkley
    OVER 65 ½ (-110)
    UNDER 65 ½ (-110)

    Total Completions – 49ers
    OVER 18 ½ (-110)
    UNDER 18 ½ (-110)

    Total Touchdown Passes – 49ers
    OVER 1 ½ (-110)
    UNDER 1 ½ (-110)

    LINE MOVEMENT

    The 49ers opened up as 2 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook. That number has climbed to three at many books with the juice at -120 or -125, while the Westgate has San Francisco at -3 ½ (Even). The total opened at 43 ½, but is now up to 44 ½ at most books as the OVER is 5-5 on Monday night so far this season.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-12-2018 at 01:37 PM.

  10. #25
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    Early bettors hit Rams' odds for NFL clash vs. Chiefs; total a whopping 64
    Patrick Everson

    Jared Goff and Todd Gurley have the Rams atop the NFC with a 9-1 SU mark. Although Los Angeles is just 4-6 ATS, early bettors moved the Rams from -1 to -2 against the Chiefs in Mexico City.

    The NFL game everybody has pointed to for weeks is finally on deck, and rightly so, it’s the finale of the Week 11 docket. We check in on the opening lines and early action for that contest and three other notable matchups, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

    Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Rams (-1)

    Kansas City is tied with Los Angeles for the best record in the league at 9-1 SU, and Andy Reid’s squad is solo No. 1 against the oddsmakers at 8-2 ATS. That said, the Chiefs couldn’t cover a healthy 16.5-point spread at home in Week 10, coasting past Arizona 26-14.

    The Rams bounced back from a loss at New Orleans – their first setback of the season – though they got a stern test in Week 10. Los Angeles (9-1 SU, 4-6 ATS) held off Seattle 36-31 as a 10-point home chalk.

    While pointspreads are generally the most notable betting element, the total in this clash of offensive titans is also a real eye-popper, in a neutral-site Monday night game at high altitude in Mexico City.

    “We opened the total at 64. No takers either way yet,” Murray said Sunday evening before addressing the spread. “We opened it Rams -1, and it’s been bet up to Rams -2. This game is a tossup to me. Don’t waste time punting on fourth-and-short or kicking field goals. These teams need touchdowns to keep pace with each other.”

    Jay Kornegay, executive vice president of operations for The SuperBook, said while the book doesn't keep such statistics, it is believed that 64 is a record-high opening total.

    Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3)

    Chicago is certainly one of the bigger surprises of the 2018-19 season, sitting atop the NFC North through 10 weeks. The Bears (6-3 SU and ATS) won and cashed their last three games, including Sunday’s 34-22 victory over Detroit as 7.5-point home favorites.

    Minnesota, which reached the NFC title game last season, can take over first place in the NFC North with a win at Soldier Field. And the Vikings (5-3-1 SU and ATS) are well-rested, coming off their bye after a 24-9 victory over Detroit as 4.5-point home faves in Week 9.

    “This game will go a long way to determining the NFC North,” Murray said. “I expect a lot of two-way write in this game. The number has moved slightly to Vikings +3 (-120), as there has been some early support for the ‘dog.”

    Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-7)

    New Orleans is the hottest team in the league, winning eight in a row SU while cashing seven consecutive times. The Saints (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) went to Cincinnati as 6-point favorites in Week 10 and put up a 50-plus burger in a 51-14 victory.

    Defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia wouldn’t make the playoffs if the season ended today. The Eagles (4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS) went off as 7.5-point home faves against Dallas in the Week 10 Sunday nighter, but lost outright 27-20.

    The SuperBook posted the Eagles-Saints line prior to Philly’s Sunday night loss, and per standard protocol took down the line during the Eagles-Cowboys game. The number will go back up Monday morning.

    “This line may go up,” Murray said, noting the Eagles’ setback might require a line adjustment. “The public will be happy to lay the points with New Orleans. The Saints have been very good to bettors recently.”

    Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)

    Green Bay also wouldn’t be in the playoffs with its .500 record to this point. The Packers (4-4-1 SU, 4-5 ATS) halted a 1-3 SU and ATS skid by dropping Miami 31-12 laying 11 points at home Sunday.

    Seattle also has work to do if it hopes to climb back into the postseason picture. The Seahawks (4-5 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) put up a valiant fight against the Los Angeles Rams, but came up just short in a 36-31 loss catching 10 points on the road.

    “Another really tough road game for the Packers, after they played at the Rams and at the Patriots” in recent weeks, Murray said. “There will be a lot of money both ways, but I anticipate the public mostly backing Green Bay.”
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-12-2018 at 01:39 PM.

  11. #26
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    An MRI has confirmed that Rams' WR Cooper Kupp suffered a torn ACL in Sunday's game vs. the Seahawks. Obviously, out for the season.

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