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Thread: Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 11/1

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    Default Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 11/1

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, November 1

    Good Luck on day #305 of 2018!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

    Betting favorites for the PGA tournament in Las Vegas this weekend:

    10-1— Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler

    11-1— Bryson DeChambeau, Jordan Spieth

    12-1— Webb Simpson

    16-1— Patrick Cantlay

    18-1— Gary Woodland

    25-1— Aaron Wise


    **********

    Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….

    13) Packers traded RB Ty Montgomery to Houston Tuesday, less than 48 hours after he fumbled a kickoff that cost the Packers a chance to rally in the last 2:00 of a 29-27 loss in LA.

    Green Bay coaches apparently told Montgomery NOT to run the ball out of the end zone, but he was annoyed because he hadn’t played as much as he thought he should earlier in the game, so he took matters into his own hands, but then the ball was knocked out of his hands.

    Now Montgomery plays for Houston.

    12) If you like basketball and you haven’t seen ESPN’s historical basketball series that runs on Tuesday nights, you should— lot of great history.

    Interviews, clips with the guys we’ve been watching on TV for decades— good stuff.

    11) One of the clips was an exhibition game between a bunch of college all-stars and some NBA all-stars in Phoenix. Michael Jordan/Patrick Ewing were on the college team; one of the other players on the college team was Leon Wood from Cal State-Fullerton, who wound up playing parts of seven years in the NBA— for the last 22 years, Wood has been an NBA referee.

    10) My all-time starting five for NBA players:
    C- Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
    F- Bill Russell
    F- Lebron James
    G- Michael Jordan
    G- Magic Johnson

    Coming up with a second team could start a lot of arguments……..

    9) So far in the NFL this season, an average of 48.2 points/game have been scored, teams have thrown for an average of 252.5 yards/game and averaged 5.7 yards per pay, all-time highs thru eight games for any season ever.

    Despite all that, over is 60-60-1 in NFL games this season.

    8) NFL suspended Seattle LB Mychal Hendricks until Week 14 for off-field issues that revolve around insider trading in the stock market.

    7) Big 14 Conference hasn’t won a national title in basketball since Michigan State in 2000.

    6) Big Sky Conference was the most improved basketball conference in the country LY; their RPI jumped from 28th to 17th. Lot of good, experienced teams; can they maintain their ranking this winter?

    5) Iona released one of its basketball players who got into a scuffle with an assistant coach and sent the coach to the hospital- the kid averaged 11 points, five rebounds a game LY, so it’ll be a pretty big loss for the Gaels.

    4) Milwaukee Brewers had a terrific season, but they’ve already lost three coaches since the season ended; their pitching coach, hitting coach and bullpen coach have all either quit or been fired, which seems odd for a team that did so well this season.

    3) This from football expert Warren Sharp: Cleveland Browns are +11 in turnover ratio with a 2-5-1 record; since 2006, there have been 38 teams whose turnover ratio was +8 or better after eight games- none of the 38 teams had a losing record.

    Since 1975, 71 teams had a +11 or better turnover ratio thru eight games; none of the 71 teams had a losing record.

    2) With Hue Jackson getting fired, this is the 4th year in a row that the team drafting the first QB in the NFL Draft fired its coach during that year or just after the season.

    2015: Lovie Smith/Jameis Winston
    2016: Jeff Fisher/Jared Goff
    2017: John Fox/Mitch Trubisky
    2018: Hue Jackson/Baker Mayfield

    1) RIP to the great Willie McCovey, who passed away Monday at age 80. McCovey hit 521 home runs homers in his Hall of Fame career- he led the NL in homers in 1968 and 1969.

    RIP, sir.

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    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Thursday, November 1


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    OKLAHOMA CITY (2 - 4) at CHARLOTTE (4 - 4) - 11/1/2018, 7:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 38-54 ATS (-21.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 33-55 ATS (-27.5 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more since 1996.
    CHARLOTTE is 177-220 ATS (-65.0 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CHARLOTTE is 3-1 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
    CHARLOTTE is 3-1 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    LA CLIPPERS (4 - 3) at PHILADELPHIA (4 - 4) - 11/1/2018, 7:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA CLIPPERS are 226-278 ATS (-79.8 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
    PHILADELPHIA is 104-77 ATS (+19.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 3 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games in November games over the last 3 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 39-21 ATS (+15.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 46-25 ATS (+18.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
    LA CLIPPERS are 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PHILADELPHIA is 4-0 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
    PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    DENVER (6 - 1) at CLEVELAND (1 - 6) - 11/1/2018, 7:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DENVER is 179-225 ATS (-68.5 Units) when playing on back-to-back days since 1996.
    CLEVELAND is 45-64 ATS (-25.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 18-37 ATS (-22.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 26-43 ATS (-21.3 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CLEVELAND is 2-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
    CLEVELAND is 2-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    SACRAMENTO (5 - 3) at ATLANTA (2 - 5) - 11/1/2018, 7:35 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ATLANTA is 2-2 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
    ATLANTA is 2-2 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    MILWAUKEE (7 - 0) at BOSTON (5 - 2) - 11/1/2018, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MILWAUKEE is 57-100 ATS (-53.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996.
    MILWAUKEE is 426-515 ATS (-140.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=98 points/game since 1996.
    BOSTON is 63-41 ATS (+17.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    BOSTON is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
    BOSTON is 37-23 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    BOSTON is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
    MILWAUKEE is 135-102 ATS (+22.8 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
    MILWAUKEE is 49-28 ATS (+18.2 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BOSTON is 10-4 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
    BOSTON is 8-6 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
    9 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NEW ORLEANS (4 - 3) at PORTLAND (5 - 2) - 11/1/2018, 10:35 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ORLEANS is 9-3 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ORLEANS is 9-3 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-01-2018 at 11:55 AM.

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    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Thursday, November 1



    Oklahoma City won its last two games after an 0-4 start; they’re 1-1 as AU. Three of their last four games went over. Charlotte split its first eight games; they’re 2-0 as HF- over is 4-2 in their last six games. Hornets won three of last four games with OKC; road team won five of last seven series games. Thunder covered three of their last four visits to Charlotte. Three of last four series games went over the total.

    Clippers won four of their last six games; they’re 1-2 as AU. Four of LA’s last five games went over. Philly split its first eight games; they’re 2-2 as HF. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games. 76ers won three of last four games with the Clippers; under is 4-1 in last five series games. LA is 0-3 vs spread in their last three visits here.

    Denver won six of its first seven games; they’re 2-1 on road, 1-2 as road favorites. Under is 5-1-1 in their games. Cleveland is off to a 1-6 start; they won their first game under their interim coach. Cavaliers are 1-3 at home, 0-1 as HU; over is 5-2 in their games. Cavaliers won seven of last ten games with Denver; over is 4-1 in last five series games. Nuggets are 2-3 vs spread in their last five visits to Ohio.

    Sacramento won/covered its last four games; they’re favored for first time this year, are 3-2 SU on road. Under is 3-1 in their last four games. Hawks lost their last three games, all by 12+ points; they’re 1-1 at home, 1-0 as HU. Three of their last four games stayed under. Home side won last six Sacramento-Atlanta games; Kings are 0-5 vs spread in last five visits here. Under is 4-2 in last six series games.

    Milwaukee is 7-0; they covered their last four games, with road wins at Charlotte/Minnesota. Over is 5-2 in their games. Celtics won their last three games, are 1-2 as HF. Four of their last five games stayed under the total. Home side won last nine Milwaukee-Boston games; Bucks are 0-5 vs spread in their last five trips to Boston. Over is 7-2 in last nine series games.

    Pelicans lost their last three games, by 21-5-10 points; they’re 2-0 as AU. Over is 6-1 in their games. Portland is off to a 5-2 start; they’re 2-1 as HF. Five of their seven games went over the total. New Orleans won six of last seven games with the Trailblazers; they swept Portland 4-0 in LY’s playoffs- Pelicans covered four of last five visits to Oregon (under 3-1-1).

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    NBA

    Thursday, November 1


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    Trend Report
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    Denver Nuggets
    Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Denver is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games
    Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Denver is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Cleveland
    Denver is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Cleveland
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 9 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
    Cleveland Cavaliers
    Cleveland is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games
    Cleveland is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Denver
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Denver
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 9 games when playing at home against Denver


    Oklahoma City Thunder
    Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Oklahoma City is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
    Oklahoma City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Oklahoma City's last 10 games on the road
    Oklahoma City is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games when playing Charlotte
    Oklahoma City is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games when playing Charlotte
    Oklahoma City is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Charlotte
    Oklahoma City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Charlotte
    Charlotte Hornets
    Charlotte is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Charlotte's last 6 games
    Charlotte is 5-14-1 ATS in its last 20 games when playing Oklahoma City
    Charlotte is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games when playing Oklahoma City
    Charlotte is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
    Charlotte is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City


    Los Angeles Clippers
    LA Clippers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    LA Clippers is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games
    LA Clippers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    LA Clippers is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    LA Clippers is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
    LA Clippers is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Philadelphia
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
    LA Clippers is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
    Philadelphia 76ers
    Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games
    Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
    Philadelphia is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing LA Clippers
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
    Philadelphia is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
    Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against LA Clippers


    Sacramento Kings
    Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Sacramento is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Sacramento's last 19 games
    Sacramento is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games on the road
    Sacramento is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games when playing Atlanta
    Sacramento is 3-17 SU in its last 20 games when playing Atlanta
    The total has gone OVER in 13 of Sacramento's last 18 games when playing Atlanta
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Sacramento's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
    Sacramento is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    Sacramento is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Sacramento's last 10 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    Atlanta Hawks
    Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    Atlanta is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games
    Atlanta is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games when playing Sacramento
    Atlanta is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games when playing Sacramento
    The total has gone OVER in 13 of Atlanta's last 18 games when playing Sacramento
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Sacramento
    Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Sacramento
    Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Sacramento
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 10 games when playing at home against Sacramento


    Milwaukee Bucks
    Milwaukee is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 17 of Milwaukee's last 22 games
    Milwaukee is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Milwaukee is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 11 games on the road
    Milwaukee is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Boston
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 9 games when playing Boston
    Milwaukee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
    Milwaukee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
    Boston Celtics
    Boston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games
    Boston is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games at home
    Boston is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games at home
    Boston is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Milwaukee
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Boston's last 9 games when playing Milwaukee
    Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
    Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee


    New Orleans Pelicans
    New Orleans is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games
    New Orleans is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games
    New Orleans is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
    New Orleans is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games on the road
    New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Portland
    New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Portland
    New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Portland
    New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Portland
    New Orleans is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Portland
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New Orleans's last 11 games when playing on the road against Portland
    Portland Trail Blazers
    Portland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    Portland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Portland's last 9 games
    Portland is 18-5-2 ATS in its last 25 games at home
    Portland is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
    Portland is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
    Portland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
    Portland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
    Portland is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against New Orleans
    Portland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Portland's last 11 games when playing at home against New Orleans


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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-01-2018 at 11:57 AM.

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    Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo has cleared the concussion protocol and will play Thursday @ Celtics.
    Current Bucks Pointspread: +3
    Current Total: 215

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    Hoop Trends - Thursday
    Vince Akins

    ATS Play ON Trend of the Day:

    -- The Celtics are 16-0 ATS (+10.09 ppg) at home when the line is within 3.5 points of pick with rest off a home game and they are facing a team with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.50.

    ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day:

    -- The Kings are 0-18 ATS (-8.19 ppg) on the road with rest when the line is within 3 of pick and they are facing a team that is getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end.

    OU Play OVER Trend of the Day:

    -- The Bucks are 12-0 OU (+12.75 ppg) with rest after a game in which they had six-plus double digit scorers.

    OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day:

    -- The Cavaliers are 0-13 OU (-14.04 ppg) as a dog off a home win that was tied five-plus times and it is before the All-Star break.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-01-2018 at 11:58 AM.

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    Inside the Paint - Thursday
    November 1, 2018
    By Chris David


    (Straight Up, Against the Spread)

    Game of the Night (TNT, 8:05 p.m. ET)

    Milwaukee (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) at Boston (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS)


    Thursday’s top NBA matchup between the Bucks and Celtics will be a rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference first round playoff series. Boston defeated Milwaukee in seven games as the home team held serve in every contest, which included a 112-96 win by the Celtics in Game 7.

    Fast forward six months and Milwaukee has had an incredible start to its 2018-19 campaign and it lays claim to the last unbeaten team in the NBA. Six of its seven victories have come by double digits, which includes a 124-109 win over Toronto on Tuesday.

    After starting the season 2-2, the Celtics have ripped off three straight wins and they’re doing so with defense. Boston is allowing 97.6 points per game, ranked first in the league and the only team to hold anybody under the century mark. Make a note that Milwaukee (104.1 PPG) isn’t far behind defensively.

    The largest improvement thus far for the Bucks is their offense, which is averaging 120 PPG and that’s a huge increase from the 106.1 PPG production last season. Boston (102.4 PPG) hasn’t shot the ball well all season but their last two efforts (109, 108) in wins over Detroit were the highest marks this season.

    VegasInsider.com NBA expert Tony Mejia weighed in on the showdown from TD Garden tonight.

    Mejia said, “Giannis Antetokounmpo clearing concussion protocol means we get to see where the Bucks sit in the East pecking order immediately, especially if Jaylen Brown is able to participate for Boston. The addition of Brook Lopez and Ersan Ilyasova allows Greek Freak to concentrate on attacking the paint since both bigs spread the floor so well and drag opposing frontcourt defenders out to the perimeter. In this case, Al Horford and Aron Baynes will be affected.”

    “It’s a short sample size, but it should be pointed out that the Magic upset the Celtics in Boston with Nikola Vucevic shooting 11-for-18 and showing off a great touch from the outside, while the other centers they’ve played – Joel Embiid, Jonas Valanciunas, Steven Adams and Andre Drummond are all traditional back-to-the-basket types.”

    “Look for this to work to Milwaukee’s benefit and don’t be surprised if this total winds up being the Celtics’ largest of the season to date, besting the 219 that was set for their visit to OKC on Oct. 25.”

    The total opened at 215 and while Boston has been a great ‘under’ lean (5-2) the Bucks have watched the ‘over’ go 5-2.

    Home/Away Tendencies

    Charlotte (4-4 SU, 6-2 ATS) has turned a profit for bettors this season, especially at home (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS). The Hornets opened as slight home favorites over Oklahoma City (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS) tonight and the Thunder are winless (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) on the road. I expect the public to lean to the visitor in this matchup but backing OKC on the road has been a poor investment dating back to last season and the Thunder remain the worst 3-point shooting team (27.5%) in the league.

    After eight games, the book is out on Philadelphia (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) and its numbers have been solid at home (4-0) and poor on the road (0-4). The Clippers (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) visit tonight as underdogs and their only win on the road (1-2) came against the James Harden-less Rockets. Along with strong home numbers, the 76ers could be identified as bullies. Four wins against the Bulls, Magic, Hornets and Hawks certainly doesn’t make noise while the losses came to the three best teams in the East (Celtics, Bucks, Raptors) and a formidable Pistons squad. I think it’s fair to say that Los Angeles is ranked in between those groups and that’s why this line is Philadelphia (-5) isn’t as high.

    Five Straight?

    After starting the season with a 1-3 record, Sacramento (5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS) has ripped off four straight wins and they’ll go for its fifth in a row Thursday when it meets Atlanta (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS) on the road. As you often hear in our industry, the Kings go from hunter to hunted as they opened as short road favorites (-2) over the Hawks. This is the first time this season that Sacramento is listed in the favorite role and doing so on the road is a tad surprising but the Hawks certainly deserve that treatment. Atlanta has only played two games int its new digs (State Farm Arena) and a 1-1 record could easily be 0-2 if Dallas didn’t collapse (111-104) to the Hawks in the opener on Oct. 24.

    The stat that catches my eye with Sacramento comes from its offense, which is ranked third in field goal percentage (49.8%) and fourth in 3-point field goal percentage (40%). I doubt the Kings can maintain that pace but they’re super athletic and they’ve got a bunch of young guys that can finish at the rim. Knowing the Hawks aren’t as deep as Sacramento, I would lean to the visitor in this spot but the wake-up call is coming. The Kings finish up their four-game road trip at Milwaukee on Sunday in a game that is scheduled in the afternoon (3:30 p.m. ET).

    If you’re not sold on the Hawks or Kings, you’re looking at a total of 231 and that’s the highest number on the board. It makes sense based on the defensive numbers for both the Kings (116.8 PPG) and Hawks (116.9 PPG). Last season, the pair split their two meetings with the home team posting a double-digit victory in each contest.

    Zero Days Rest

    Denver (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) survived a scare at Chicago last night and escaped with a 108-107 win but never came close to covering as an eight-point road favorite. For the second straight night, the Nuggets will be laying points on the road when they visit Cleveland. The Nuggets have gone 1-0 both SU and ATS on no rest this season but they played that game at home, which was a 100-98 win over Golden State on Oct. 21.

    The Cavaliers (1-6 SU, 4-3 ATS) just won their first game of the season on Tuesday, a 136-114 blowout win over Atlanta as 4 ½-point home favorites. Prior to that win, Cleveland was 0-3 both SU and ATS at Quicken Loans Arena and all of the losses came by double digits.

    New Orleans (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) did as much as it could but still dropped a 131-121 decision at Golden State on Wednesday as a nine-point underdog. Tonight, the club will visit the Moda Center to face Portland (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS). The Pelicans have only faced a back-to-back spot once this season and they got blitzed 132-111 at home by the Jazz on Oct. 27. All-Star Anthony Davis sat out that game and his absence was obviously felt.

    If you’ve read my “ITP” columns before, you’ve probably heard me talk about fading teams in their first game back after a road trip of three or more games. It hasn’t clicked this season but something to keep an eye on and Portland faces the angle tonight after finishing its four-game road trip with a 3-1 record.

    In case you forgot, the Pelicans embarrassed the Trail Blazers in the first round of the playoffs last season with a 4-0 sweep. There was no answer for Davis or Jrue Holiday and while some may play the revenge factor, sometimes you have to play the matchup. Including the outcome of that series, New Orleans has won eight of the last 10 and that includes a 4-1 record at Portland.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  9. #9
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    POSSIBLE FATIGUE

    Denver hopes to improve off their 6-1 start as they travel to Cleveland to take on the struggling Cavaliers, who are desperate for a victory after a 1-6 start. The Nuggets enter with two scorers averaging over 20 points in Nikola Jokic at 21.5, and Gary Harris contributing 20. As a result, the Nuggets have put up an efficient 113.7 points per contest while surrendering only 105.2.

    Meanwhile, the Cavs are averaging 110 points a game and allowing opponents to shoot 51.5 percent from the floor. They’ve been especially poor defending from beyond the arc, allowing opponents to shoot 42.3 percent.

    With this being the second night of a back to back for the Nuggets, there may be some tired legs, especially last night’s game went to overtime. Plus, they are 1-4 ATS in their last six games on zero days rest. All that said, without Kevin Love, the Cavs have been unplayable. Take the Under 219.


    THUNDER FINALLY IN RYTHYM

    Oklahoma City Thunder look for their first road win of the season when they visit the Charlotte Hornets. But they’ll have to contain Kemba Walker, who averaging 30.1 points per game. The Hornets as a team are shooting 46.3 percent from the field and have been especially efficient from beyond the arc hitting at 35.9 percent.

    The Thunder are extremely happy to have Russell Westbrook back and their offense finally seems to be clicking. Over their last two games, they have averaged 122.5 points per contest and are shooting 50.8 percent from the field. The Thunder have won six of the last seven meetings in Charlotte and have gone 14-5-1 in their last 20 meetings versus the Hornets. Grab the 1.5 points with OKC and take them as small road dogs.


    NEW KINGS ON THE BLOCK

    The Sacramento Kings have been one of the most surprising teams early on this season and having won five of their last six. Tonight, they travel to Philips Arena to take on the Atlanta Hawks. Unfortunately for the Hawks, they have lost five of their first seven games and hope to snap a three-game losing streak.

    In Tuesday’s meeting versus the Cavaliers, Atlanta committed 23 turnovers leading to over 28 points. They were out scored in the second half 78-57. This seems to be a trend with the Hawks, who have averaged surrendering 66.7 points in the second half over their last three games. Sacramento enters this contest ranked third in the Association in second half points scoring 60.2.

    With the way the Kings have been playing, and Atlanta’s second half collapses, Sacramento as 2-point favorites looks like an enticing bet.


    THE EAST’S UNDEFEATED VS EAST ROYALTY

    The Bucks are the last remaining undefeated team in the Eastern Conference at 7-0 and still find themselves as 3.5-point underdogs as they travel to take on the Boston Celtics at TD Garden.

    Milwaukee have beaten quality teams in the Pacers, 76ers and now Raptors, so their record at 7-0 is looking impressive.

    In the Bucks meeting versus the Raptors on Monday night, leading scorer Kawhi Leonard sat out, and so did Bucks leading scorer Giannis Antetokounmpo. Along with Giannis, the Bucks should be well rested as well, coming off two days of rest. The Bucks have loved extended time off posting a 5-0-1 ATS record off two days rest.

    The Bucks should come out with something to prove and luckily for them, they have been very successful so far in putting up first quarter points averaging 29.7 a game. At a nice price, consider taking the Bucks in a race to 15 points.


    THE REVENGE TRAIL

    The Pelicans are cooling off after a hot start losing three straight. They’ll hope to snap that streak as they travel to Portland to take on a 5-2 Trail Blazers team. The Pelicans enter averaging 122.5 points on 49 percent shooting and have allowed 118.8 points on 47.1 percent shooting. This game has revenge narrative written all over it as the Blazers were swept by New Orleans in last year’s playoffs.

    The Blazers are averaging 117 points per game but are surrendering 117.2 points on 45.5 percent shooting on the other end. They love playing at home where they’ve won 14 of their last 17 home games and are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 at the Moda Center.

    The Pelicans have also been successful in this spot posting a 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games on back-to-back night’s and are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 overall.

    With Anthony Davis making his second start after being out for two games, he should be an offensive factor once again. Look into taking his rebounding total Over as he enters averaging 13 per game and has not had a game of less than 10.

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