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Thread: NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (Thur. Nov. 1 - Mon. Nov. 5)

  1. #16
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    TNF - Raiders at 49ers
    Tony Mejia

    Oakland at San Francisco (-2.5, 45.5), 8:20 pm ET, FOX/NFLN

    The last Battle for the Bay will be played in Santa Clara. Things change.

    The 49ers are no longer at Candlestick Park. The Raiders, established in Oakland in 1960 before moving to Los Angeles from 1982-94, will open play in their new Las Vegas home in 2020.

    It remains to be seen where they play next season since their lease at the Oakland Coliseum ends after their Christmas eve home finale, but since these teams won’t see one another for a few more seasons, both will no longer be Bay Area neighbors, even though that in itself is currently a stretch. This will be the Raiders’ first visit to Levi’s Stadium and supplies one last installment for fans to bicker about before fans of the team decide whether to remain loyal supporters of a team leaving town.

    Unfortunately, the historical significance is one of the few selling points of an otherwise brutal Thursday night matchup between teams that are already realistically eliminated from playoff contention.

    Both teams come off ugly losses to opponents that are also unlikely to reach the postseason. San Francisco became the first team to lose in Glendale this season as Arizona rookie QB Josh Rosen led a late comeback to deliver an 18-15 upset. Indianapolis’ Andrew Luck fueled a come-from-behind 42-28 victory at the Oakland Coliseum, keeping the Raiders in the one-win club alongside the Giants and these 49ers.

    Given that the teams are going nowhere, this is one of those matchups were the loser probably benefits most, improving their chances to earn the NFL Draft’s No.1 overall pick. The Raiders traded Amari Cooper to Dallas and are in the process of identifying who it is they want to take to wherever it is they’ll end up playing next season. Head coach Jon Gruden, in Year 1 of a lucrative 10-year contract, wants guys he can trust. Presumably, that trust can be earned by showing out in meaningless games like this one.

    Derek Carr bounced back in last week’s loss to the Colts by leading four scoring drives of 75 or more yards. Oakland averaged 8.7 yards per snap despite having traded Cooper and being forced to put RB Marshawn Lynch on IR. Veteran Doug Martin and Jalen Richard did the work out of the backfield, while first-year Raiders Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant started on the outside.

    San Francisco has been making due with backups for most of the season, being forced to turn the page on contention when QB Jimmy Garoppolo was lost to a torn ACL against the Chiefs in Week 3. CJ Beathard has struggled as his replacement, coming in 0-5 and nursing a wrist injury that had him listed as ‘questionable.’ Participating in a Wednesday walk-through is a solid indication he’ll be able to play as he looks to build on his first game of the season without an interception after throwing seven over his first four starts.

    Beathard, a second-year pro out of Iowa, is 1-10 in games where he takes the majority of the snaps, beating the Giants at home last season by throwing for two TDs and running for another. He hasn’t been as productive since.

    Nick Mullens, a 23-year-old second-year QB out of Southern Miss who has yet to take a snap in live action, appears to be in line to start if Beathard can’t go. He turned it over five times in 93 preseason snaps, which isn’t a great sign. Head coach Mike Shanahan said earlier in the week that it would be a challenge for Beathard to play, so I’d expect to see Mullens even if he doesn’t start. Veteran Tom Savage, who was signed on Oct. 16 after being without a gig after the Saints released him prior to the start of the season, would be activated to be the backup if Beathard doesn’t play.

    Check out the very long injury report entry below for more news on that front.

    Both teams have major concerns that makes this a tough game to handicap, especially since both have been so bad against the spread, covering only twice while winning outright just once. San Francisco ranks second in the NFL with 18 turnovers and has forced only three. Their two interceptions are a franchise-low through eight games.

    Meanwhile, the Raiders have just six takeaways and an NFL-low seven sacks. They’ll be facing a 49ers offense that has been sacked 31 times, so that may be where this matchup potentially swings. Bruce Irvin has been phased out and was being shopped at the deadline, so it would be a surprise for him to be a factor if he’s even able to play through a shoulder issue.

    San Francisco has only covered one of its last 15 games as a favorite, which makes backing them in that role a huge risk, especially given the likelihood that someone who has never taken a regular-season snap will have to play a role. Of course, backing Oakland carries its own level of peril given that the defense is allowing over 31 points per game, a figure that only one other team eclipses. They’ve been awful on the road of late too and seem to be a divided group.

    Thanks for this one, schedule-makers. If there’s a Thursday nighter to skip in lieu of movie night, this is it.

    Oakland Raiders
    Season win total: 7.5 (Over +120, Under -140)
    Odds to win AFC West: 500/1 to 1000/1
    Odds to win AFC: 900/1 to 900/1
    Odds to win Super Bowl: 2000/1 to 2000/1

    San Francisco 49ers
    Season win total: 8.5 (Over +130, Under -150)
    Odds to win NFC West: OFF to OFF
    Odds to win NFC: 2500/1 to 2500/1
    Odds to win Super Bowl: 5000 to 5000/1


    While neither one of these teams were expected to win their respective divisions, both were expected to compete for West titles. The Raiders opened 4-to-1, even with Denver, while the Niners were 7-to-2 behind only the Rams.

    The 49ers were 15-to-1 to capture the NFC and the Raiders were 20/1 to win the AFC East when the season began. Westgate's playoff props each had these teams favored to miss the postseason. Oakland was at -275 to fail to qualify while San Francisco came in at -220. The Raiders are now 900-to-1 to win their conference, odds on par with the Cleveland Browns and ahead of only Buffalo (2000-to-1). The 49ers are at 2500-to-1 to win the NFC, which is even with Arizona for the longest odds.

    As far as this matchup is concerned, the 49ers were a 2.5-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced last week and opened at -3.5 before dropping back down to 3 and eventually to where it currently resides at -2.5.

    San Francisco opened at -160 on the money line and is available at -140 at the moment. If you like the home 'dog outright, a payout on aRaiders win will get you +115 to +125 depending on the shop.


    Beathard’s availability is the biggest variable since it would thrust an unknown commodity like Mullens into the mix, but it’s by no means the only concern. The 49ers got good news regarding RB Matt Brieda, who should participate after leaving the loss to the Cardinals with an ankle/arch issue. Tackle Joe Staley, center Weston Richburg and guard Mike Person were all limited in practice, while WR Pierre Garcon is also dealing with a knee issue after missing last week’s game. Corner Richard Sherman (calf) had a rough outing against Arizona and is also dealing with a few ailments that have his status in question. The 49ers defense is already without top LB Reuben Foster due to a knee injury and have also ruled out safety Jaquiski Tartt due to a bum shoulder.

    Oakland got good news on guard Kelechi Osemele, who has missed the past three games and would give the offensive line a huge boost by returning. Corner Gareon Conley and Daryl Worley are listed as questionable. Fellow CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie decided to retire, so the Raiders could be vulnerable in the back.


    Thursday’s total opened at 47 and the number is sitting at 45.5 as of Thursday morning.

    Weekly “Total Talk” writer Chris David provided his thoughts on this matchup:

    If you’ve been playing the ‘over’ on Thursday’s this season, then accept our congratulations. The high side has cashed the last five weeks and all of the results have never been in doubt. Bettors craving for extra action have also seen the first-half ‘over’ hit in each of those games.

    Last week’s total between the Dolphins and Texans dropped and I thought it was the right move but that was before we saw a slew of big plays in the second-half. The opener on this midweek matchup has also dropped, from 47 ½ to 45 ½ at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

    It’s not an easy handicap and you can certainly argue both ways. The 49ers started the season with a 5-1 ‘over’ run but their offense (10, 15 points) has looked lethargic the last two weeks and that’s led to a pair of ‘under’ tickets. Do you trust San Francisco to turn it around against a suspect Oakland defense (407 YPG, 31.1 PPG) on a short week? Plus, if QB C.J. Beathard doesn’t play than that means Nick Mullens, an unknown rookie from Southern Mississippi would be thrown into the mix.

    And even if San Francisco puts up a 30-spot on the Raiders at home, will we see an Oakland offense score 28 like they did last week at home versus the Colts or the one that’s been held to 20 or less points in five of seven games?

    To answer those questions, I have more confidence in Oakland scoring in this spot. First, Levi’s Stadium is 40 minutes away from the Coliseum and with this being the last game in San Francisco before the team moves to Las Vegas, I expect a good Silver & Black contingent for this matchup. Also, the 49ers defense has been a mess at home (31.3 PPG) at home this season and that trend goes back to 16. We’ve seen 18 straight teams come into SF and score at least 21 points on the Niners and that includes 27, 28 and 39 this season. A look at the Raiders team total ‘over’ (21 ½) looks doable and is on my radar.

    RECENT MEETINGS (San Francisco 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS last six; UNDER 3-3)

    12/7/14 Oakland 24-13 vs. San Francisco (OAK +9, 40.5)
    10/17/10 San Francisco 17-9 vs. Oakland (SF -7, 41)
    10/8/06 San Francisco 34-20 vs. Oakland (SF -3.5, 39.5)
    11/3/02 San Francisco 23-20 OT at Oakland (SF +3, 49.5)
    10/8/00 Oakland 34-28 OT at San Francisco (OAK -4.5, 48.5)
    9/5/94 San Francisco 44-14 vs. Los Angeles (SF -7, 45.5)

  2. #17
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    Trends to Watch - November
    Marc Lawrence


    Keep an eye on (Good): Buffalo 31-20 ATS

    The 2018 edition of the Buffalo Bills might not be very good, but at least they have a history of covering spreads at home. They have Chicago at home on Nov. 4th and Jacksonville on the 25th.

    Bad: Cleveland 11-26 ATS and L.A. Rams 19-38 ATS

    Not sure these two teams will continue on the same path. On a three-game losing streak to start the month, the Browns have home games against Kansas City and Atlanta on the first two Sunday's of the month with a different head coach.

    The NFL's lone unbeaten team to start this month, the Rams, have just one home game to improve their dismal record. That will be against Seattle (11/11) in a rematch.

    Keep an eye on (Bad): Oakland 19-32 ATS

    The Raiders fans will not have much longer to watch their team do so poorly against the spread at home. This November it will be just once versus the Chargers.


    Good: Houston 20-9 ATS

    The Texans have been road warriors this month. Though Houston has back-to-back away contests, first in Denver (11/4) and next in Washington (11/18), they have a bye in the middle to break it up.

    Keep an eye on (Good): Chicago 38-22 ATS, L.A. Chargers 32-20 ATS, New Orleans 36-24 ATS

    The Bears surprisingly are fighting for an NFC North title. They will look to stay in the chase and given their spread record, they could do well a Buffalo (11/4) at Detroit on Thanksgiving.

    One could make the case Chargers are on the road for every game given the lack of home field advantage in Carson CA. Nonetheless, they will dress in the visitors' locker room against Seattle (11/4) and Oakland at a week later.

    The Saints will have a lot of home cooking this month other than one road affair at Cincinnati (11/11).

    Keep an eye on (Bad): Detroit 18-29 ATS, N.Y. Giants 23-35 ATS

    Detroit's slow start could mean a long season, with two division road battles. They start in Minnesota (11/4) and a week later in Chicago. Not a great situation for the Lions.

    Let's not sugarcoat it. The Giants stink. Trips to San Francisco (11/12), where the country cannot wait for that matchup, and to Philadelphia (11/25) should only make loyal backers poorer.


    Keep an eye on (Good): Carolina 25-16 ATS, Dallas 46-29 ATS

    The Panthers are solid when handing out points and they almost certainly will at home against Tampa Bay (11/4) and Seattle (11/25). Their matchup at Detroit on the 18th is a wait and see proposition at this time.

    Dallas is favored over Tennessee on the first Monday of the month and most likely will be favored on Thanksgiving vs. Washington.

    Bad: Washington 15-30 ATS

    With the Redskins an improved football team, they might be favored more often than we might think. Washington hosts Atlanta (11/4) and Houston (11/18) and will be at the Buccaneers and Jerry's World on Turkey Day. The past does not offer much hope for backers.

    Keep an eye on (Bad): Kansas City 24-40 ATS

    The Chiefs have more than enough offense to better themselves in this role, going to Cleveland (11/4) and at home against Arizona (11/11).


    Keep an eye on (Good): Chicago 41-27 ATS, Tampa Bay 43-27 ATS

    The Bears have been quite a success when catching points. Most likely they will be receiving points in what could be a very important home game with Minnesota (11/18) and we will have a wait see versus Detroit on Thanksgiving.

    By this time of the year, Tampa Bay is just playing out the season and because nobody takes them seriously and they have covered more spreads than expected. The Bucs will be dogs at Carolina (11/4) and probably Washington (11/11). Games at the Giants and vs. the 49ers are TBD.

    Bad: N.Y. Giants 14-33 ATS

    As if the G-Men were not bad enough, now this comes up! They will be underdogs at Frisco (11/12) and at Philly (11/25). Bettors will be waiting anxiously (or not) to if the Giants will be the favorite against the Bucs at home (11/18).

    Keep an eye on (Bad): Cleveland 18-32 ATS, Dallas 17-26 ATS, Detroit 24- 41 ATS

    The Browns will be an underdog when facing the Chiefs (11/4), Falcons (11/11) and at Cincinnati (11/25). The only one that is uncertain is when they go up against Bye Week.

    The Cowboys will be receiving points at Philadelphia (11/11) on a short week and seven days later at Atlanta. As mentioned, we are not sure what role they will have vs. the Redskins on Thanksgiving.

    Detroit will be dogs at Minnesota (11/4) and possibly at Chicago (11/11). Home contests taking on Carolina (11/18) and the Bears (11/22) will require more information.


    Keep an eye on (Good): New England 27-18 ATS, New Orleans 29-15 ATS, Oakland 30-19 ATS

    The Patriots would have a much better spread mark it was not double digits all the time against AFC East foes. This month it will be just one against the Jets at their joint on the 25th.

    On Thanksgiving evening when leftovers are fair game for who is still around, New Orleans will play host to Atlanta.

    The Raiders will have the Chargers in Oak-Town on the second Sunday of the month and owner Mark Davis will still have a bad haircut.

    Keep an eye on (Bad): Cleveland 12-21 ATS, L.A. Rams 18-30 ATS

    For Cleveland, their record could get worse when they have the first Battle of Ohio in the Queen City on the 25th.

    The Rams did not cover against Seahawks (11/11) in the previous contest, could it happen again?

  3. #18
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    NFL Underdogs: Week 9 pointspread picks and predictions
    Jason Logan

    Ah, the day after Halloween.

    If you don’t have a brood of little Trick-or-Treaters to slowly steal candy from over the next week (I call it the “Candy Tax”), November 1 is primetime for discount goodies. All the stores have their leftover Halloween treats marked down lower than Amari Cooper Raiders jerseys.

    That said, you’re settling for the candy no one wanted to give out on October 31, so the menu can sometimes be bleak. But discount shopping is not for the weak of heart – nor the weak of stomach. And the same goes for handicapping NFL pointspread underdogs.

    The temptation is a sugar-fueled frenzy but there’s something a little off about the qualifying selection of teams each week. Just like that half-opened bag of semi-crushed Kit-Kat Minis in the bargain bin, underdogs are often damaged goods.

    However, Week 9 presents some rare delicacies. We have some legit Super Bowl contenders getting the points, starting with the New Orleans Saints.

    New Orleans opened as a 1-point underdog hosting the undefeated L.A. Rams Sunday, and quickly moved to -1.5 before rumblings out of the Big Easy surrounding the health of running back extraordinaire Alvin Kamara forced a move back to +1 Thursday (Kamara missed practice not due to injury, but illness, and is expected to be fine for Week 9).

    The Saints are known for their explosive offense – which is why this total is flirting with 60 points – but the defense has been subtly good in recent weeks. New Orleans has allowed an average of just 19.6 points to opponents outside the NFC South and face a non-divisional foe that's been playing with fire when it comes to its unblemished record.

    The Rams have gone from public darlings (started 3-0 ATS) to the boogey men of the betting community, with Todd Gurley’s yield in Week 8 busting bankrolls for the fourth time in the last five games. Los Angeles has won by a margin of three points or less in three of its last four appearances and will be playing its fourth road game in five weeks when it comes to the Superdome Sunday.

    Give me the Saints, the points, and a handful of partially-melted Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups.

    New Orleans +1

    Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 47.5)

    These AFC North rivalries are breeding grounds for underdog winners. But that’s not why I’m siding with the Steelers when they visit the Ravens as field-goal pups Sunday.

    Pittsburgh has looked very good in recent weeks, winning three in a row after a wobbly start to the season and has done so on the back of its defense. The Steelers stop unit has given up just 56 total points and limited foes to a league-best 4.5 yards per play in that three-game span while tightening the bolts on what was a leaky pass defense.

    Baltimore, on the other hand, had its defense exposed at Carolina in Week 8. Sure, the spot was tough for the Ravens (playing four road games in five weeks… we see you Rams) but they’ve managed to puff up their defensive resume against some cupcake offenses, like Buffalo, Denver, Cleveland and Tennessee. Now they take on a Pittsburgh scoring attack totaling 102 points over in its last three contests and sitting fourth in yards per play (6.6) during that trio of tilts.

    Pittsburgh +3

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-6.5, 55)

    "You’re everyone’s problem. That’s because every time you go up in the air you’re unsafe. I don’t like you because you’re dangerous."

    Is that a heated clash between Tom "Iceman" Kazansky and Pete "Maverick" Mitchell, or is that simply the scouting report on Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Ryan Fitzpatrick?

    Fitzpatrick is dangerous, and that’s what makes he and the Bucs worth a look in Week 9. Tampa Bay is steering into the skid and giving the ball to the wily veteran that tops the NFL in yards per completion (10.76) and has as many touchdown throws as Aaron Rodgers (13) despite completing 76 fewer passes.

    We saw what happened to Tampa when he took over for Jameis Winston last week (a full-on Shane Falco moment) and this Bucs squad has fought hard all season despite the complete absence of anything even close to resembling a defense. They’ve watched five of their seven games be decided by six or fewer points and three of those have been settled by a field goal.

    Should Fitzpatrick play “dangerous” Sunday, the Panthers just don’t have the passing game to pick up the slack. Carolina has shown a bad habit of falling behind early and while it may have been able to dig itself out of those holes versus “safe” offenses like Washington and Philadelphia, it’s driving down an entirely different highway in Week 9.

    Crank up the Loggins and put on the aviators. Bucs and the points.

    Tampa Bay +6.5

    Last week: 3-0 ATS
    Season: 17-7 ATS

  4. #19
    Join Date
    Nov 2004



    Broncos running back Royce Freeman missed practice again on Thursday and it would appear he’ll miss his second game in a row on Sunday as Denver hosts Houston. Freeman suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 7 and watched Phillip Lindsay and Devontae Booker each have nice games in his absence in Week 8.

    Lindsay was the feature back and turned 56 percent of the snaps into 18 carries for 95 yards and a touchdown and added three catches for 17 yards. Booker was on the field for 44 percent of the snaps and ran for 78 yards on nine carries while adding four catches for 23 yards. This week, the Broncos face a Texans defense that ranks first in rush defense DVOA but 12th when it comes to total yards from scrimmage allowed to running backs. Because of that, we like the idea of Denver’s backs being involved as pass catchers. We’re going to monitor the props market for this game when it opens and take the Over for whoever has the lower number for their receptions total between Lindsay and Booker.


    The New York Jets are expected to activate running back Elijah McGuire off of I.R. for Sunday’s game at Miami. Common thinking is that he might eat into Isaiah Crowell’s field time but when you look at the Jets’ snap counts this season, you see that Crowell gets between 40-46 percent of the snaps, no matter who is active. Even last week with Bilal Powell out, Crowell received 46 percent of the snaps while sixth-round rookie RB Trenton Cannon received 54 percent. On Sunday, it won’t be a surprise when Crowell gets just about half of the snaps, while Cannon and McGuire split the rest.

    Since busting off 219 rushing yards in Week 6, Crowell has been bad with rushing totals of 40, 29, and 25. But in gambling, it’s all about the spot and this is a great one for Crowell against a Miami defense that has given up rushing totals of 175, 209, 108, 93, and 167 yards over the last five games. New York will continue forcing the run as not to put too much pressure on rookie Sam Darnold and Crowell should find some nice holes on Sunday. Take the Over 58.5 on his rushing yards total.


    Bears wide receiver Allen Robinson remained on the sideline at practice on Thursday with a groin injury. It was his second straight missed practice after sitting out Week 8’s win over the Jets. Chicago’s wide receivers didn’t do much last week as game flow and weather contributed to QB Mitch Trubisky completing just 16 passes. One stat that does pop out from that game, however, is that rookie receiver Anthony Miller led the team in targets with seven. Trubisky is certainly looking his way more often recently (19 targets in the last three games) and he’s targeting Miller on deep balls (303 air yards over the last three games). This week, the Bears head to Buffalo as a 10-point road favorite in a game that looks like it’ll be played under pretty ideal weather conditions. Assuming Robinson can’t go, this could the week where Trubisky and Miller connect downfield and we’re going to back the Over for his receiving yards total.


    We mentioned earlier in the week that we like Jared Goff on Sunday, so let’s head to the other sideline and talk about how we’re also going to back Drew Brees in what’s set up to be an extremely entertaining, high-scoring affair between the Rams and Saints. First, it’s Drew Brees and he’s at home in a game where his team total is set at 28.5. At home so far this season, he is averaging 348.3 yards per game and is completing 83.5 percent of his passes. He’s also throwing the long ball better than anyone so far in 2018 as he leads the league with a 65.6 completion percentage on passes of 15 yards or more.

    The Saints might try to run the ball early to keep the Rams’ offense off the field, but the Rams are going to throw a lot as opponents are gaining 80.2 percent of their yardage against New Orleans via the pass — and they’re likely to score against the 29th ranked unit in pass defense DVOA. This will keep the clock stopped and force the Saints to throw to keep pace. This is one of the highest game totals we’ve seen this century and the offenses on both sidelines are set to put up huge numbers. Take the Over on Brees’ passing yards total.


    Washington’s run defense has been very tough on opposing backs so far this season and that’s bad news for Atlanta's Tevin Coleman. The most rushing yards that Washington has given up so far on the season is 61 and over the last three games, it has allowed Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, and Christian McCaffrey a combined 91 rushing yards. Coleman is less involved in the offense than he was earlier in the season and has just 28 carries over his last three games, compared to 45 over his first three. Ito Smith has taken some of his carries (18 over his last two games) as his snap count has risen to the mid-40 percent level over the last two weeks. Coleman is trending in the wrong direction and is in a very tough spot this week. Take the Under 54.5 on his rushing yards total.

  5. #20
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    Top 6 picks in Week 9 of Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)

    1) Vikings, -4.5 (1,262)

    2) Steelers, +3 (1,138)

    3) Titans, +6.5 (1,093)

    4) Chiefs, -8 (977)

    5) Texans, +1 (782)

    6) Seahawks, -2 (773)

    Season record: 25-20-3 (6-0 last week)

  6. #21
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    By: Brandon DuBreuil


    Vikings running back Dalvin Cook will suit up on Sunday for the first time since Week 4 as he has been recovering from a hamstring injury. There are varied reports coming out of Minnesota as to how much he’ll actually play, with one report saying he’ll log 15-20 snaps and another saying he’ll be on the field for 8-12 plays. We strongly recommend taking a wait-and-see approach with Cook as it’s likely the Vikings just want to give him a few touches on Sunday before their bye next week.

    We’re not touching Cook but this news obviously affects Minnesota’s backfield. Latavius Murray was just hitting his stride with four touchdowns over his past three games while running for 280 yards on 52 carries. The Vikings’ backfield is in a great spot this week against a Detroit defense that ranks dead last in rushing yards allowed per game (137) and yards per carry (5.5). It’s probable that Murray still gets at least 15 touches this week and, assuming a couple of these are in the red zone, that should be enough to get him a score. We’re backing Murray to score a touchdown at any time.


    Minnesota isn’t the only team with a returning running back in the NFC North showdown in Minneapolis as Detroit will welcome Theo Riddick (knee) back into the rotation. Riddick hasn’t played since Week 5 and also missed Weeks 2 and 3 with an injury.

    Riddick’s return isn’t overly exciting and it isn’t something we’re going to put a bet behind but where it does concern bettors is how his return will affect Kerryon Johnson. The Lions’ rookie running back has enjoyed taking on Riddick’s snaps and has turned in performances of 21 touches for 179 total yards and 14 touches for 91 yards in Weeks 7 and 8 respectively while logging 59 and 81 percent of the backfield snaps. This looks like a game where Detroit is going to have to throw the ball to be successful as 77.4 percent of yards gained by Minnesota’s opponents have gone through the air. Unfortunately for Johnson, Riddick has been the team’s passing-down back and he’ll likely slide back into that role on Sunday. We’re taking the Under on Johnson’s combined total for his rushing and receiving yards.


    Broncos coach Vance Joseph announced on Friday that his team will be down three defensive starters as linebacker Brandon Marshall, safety Darian Stewart, and cornerback Bradley Roby are all out. This is tough on Denver but great news for a Houston offense that is coming off its best performance of the season where it dropped 42 on the Dolphins. Earlier in the week, we mentioned taking the Under on Demaryius Thomas’ receiving total and we’re sticking with that bet as we don’t expect him very involved in the offense after just a couple of practices in Houston. But the injury news does give a nice bump to other Houston offensive players and we’re going to put a bet behind Lamar Miller.

    We won money backing him to score a touchdown at any time last week and we’re going back to the well for the same bet this week. Earlier in the season, Deshaun Watson was Houston’s red-zone running back but lately, it has been all Miller as he has six carries inside the 20 over the last two weeks to Watson’s zero. Houston has made a commitment to running the ball recently with 55.2 percent of its offensive plays being handoffs and we expect that to continue this week for two reasons: First, the Texans have been winning and second, Denver ranks 28th in run defense DVOA (but second against the pass). We expect Miller to be heavily involved again this week and we’re backing him to hit pay dirt at any time.


    Let’s face it: Trey Burton simply hasn’t lived up to his offseason hype. Burton had people talking over the summer as he was fresh off his role in the “Philly Special” and was going to be featured in an offense run by Matt Nagy. But the fact of the matter is that Burton has had just one big game all season where he put up a 9-126-1 line against New England in Week 7. If you take out that game, he has averaged just three catches for 36.2 yards in six games. What’s even more concerning is that he isn’t getting many targets (4.5 per game if you take out Week 7).

    This week, you would think Burton is in a good spot as Chicago rolls into Buffalo as a 10-point favorite, but the Bills are quite good against tight ends — just ask Rob Gronkowski and his three catches for 43 yards last week on Monday Night Football. Buffalo is allowing opponents to catch just 53.4 percent of their passes to tight ends and hasn’t allowed a tight end to go for more than 55 yards yet this season. We expect another pedestrian effort from Burton on Sunday and are taking the Under 45.5 on his receiving yards total.


    Panthers wide receiver Devin Funchess could be in store for a very fun day on Sunday. We love to talk about spots and this is about as good as it gets as Carolina gets a home matchup against a Buccaneers defense that ranks last or very close to the bottom in every major passing statistic. Tampa Bay is giving up 16.4 catches per game to opposing wide receivers and that includes 8.6 catches per game to the opponent’s top wideout. Funchess is coming off his worst game of the season (three catches for 27 yards) but part of that was due to the game script as the Ravens built an early 24-7 lead. Bettors should expect a big day (by Funchess’ standards) on Sunday and take the Over 59.5 on his receiving yards total.

  7. #22
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    Nov 2004


    Total Talk - Week 9
    Chris David

    The ‘under’ went 9-5 in Week 8 and the low side is now 19-9 (67.8%) the past two weeks. The hero for ‘under’ bettors in Week 7 was Ravens kicker Justin Tucker and it’s safe to say that Todd Gurley took that honor last week. The Rams running back stopped short of the endzone and that layup helped the Los Angeles-Green Bay outcome stay ‘under’ the number. It was the smart football play and bettors on the ‘over’ knew their hopes were likely done after the Packers fumbled the kickoff and Gurley’s scamper was nothing more than a tease. Through eight weeks, the ‘under’ holds the slightest of edges with a 61-60 (50.4%) mark.

    2018 Total Results - Game & Halves
    O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
    Week 8 5-9 7-7 10-4

    O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
    Year-to-Date 60-61 60-61 60-57-4

    2018 Results - Other
    O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
    Week 8 2-2 1-4 1-2 0-0

    O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
    Year-to-Date 19-13 14-20 14-9 5-2

    Line Moves and Public Leans

    Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 9 as of Saturday morning

    Detroit at Minnesota: 51 to 49
    N.Y. Jets at Miami: 45 ½ to 43 ½
    Tennessee at Dallas: 42 to 40

    Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 9 per the betting trend percentages as of Saturday morning.

    Detroit at Minnesota: Under 86%
    Tennessee at Dallas: Under 72%
    Chicago at Buffalo: Over 69%
    Atlanta at Washington: Over 66%
    Green Bay at New England: Over 65%

    Fifty Something

    Totals in the fifties have watched the ‘under’ go 16-14 on the season and that includes a 3-2 record last week. There are four games In Week 9 with totals listed at 50 or higher and you could be scratching your head on a couple of them based on the total results at the betting counter.


    Kansas City (4-4) at Cleveland (4-4):
    The Chiefs continue to do their part offensively, averaging 36.2 points per game, yet the ‘under’ has cashed in four of their last five games. Cleveland’s once highly regarded defense has been shaky the last three weeks (32.3 PPG) and the offense (18.3 PPG) has struggled over the same span. Should we expect the Browns units to improve Sunday after all the coaching changes?

    Tampa Bay (6-2) at Carolina (4-3):
    The Buccaneers defense (33.3 PPG) has definitely contributed to their league-best ‘over’ mark and it appears the oddsmakers have more confidence with Fitzmagic under center. The Panthers have hit the ‘over’ in three straight games at home behind a red-hot offense (31, 33, 36 points).

    L.A. Rams (3-5) at New Orleans (3-4):
    Hard to lean ‘under’ in the Superdome but Saints enter this game on a 3-1 run to the low side and the defense (20 PPG) has been solid during this stretch. The Rams were a great ‘over’ bet on the road last year (7-1) but the ‘under’ is 3-1 in away games so far this season. Make a note the best offense that the Rams have faced on the road was Seattle, who put up 31 on them.

    Green Bay (5-2) at New England (4-4):
    Instead of the offense, the Packers (24.7 PPG) defense has been the main reason for their ‘over’ mark and that unit actually posted a shutout this season albeit against the Bills. Outside of the Week 1 outcome at home (27-20) versus the Texans, the seven other total results for the Patriots have been clear-cut results.

    Thirty Something
    - The 'under' is 3-2 in totals that have closed in the thirties this season and the Bears-Bills matchup will likely close in that neighborhood on Sunday.

    Bye Bye Rust

    Teams off the ‘bye’ watched the ‘under’ go 3-1 last week and the ‘over’ has gone 6-4 in games with at least one club playing on rest this season. Looking at the 10 results further, you can see that teams playing with rest have come to play offensively. Even though the low side came ahead last week, you can’t fault the Packers (27), Seahawks (28) or Steelers (33) for watching their games go ‘under’ the number. And Oakland’s offense also came to play, but its defense didn’t as it dropped a 42-28 loss at home to Indianapolis.

    Tallying up all the numbers, teams off the ‘bye’ this season are averaging 28.1 PPG and four more are playing with rest this week.

    Falcons at Redskins
    Chargers at Seahawks
    Cowboys at Titans (Both teams playing with rest)

    Divisional Matchups

    As we approach the midway point of the season, we’re starting to see a trend in these matchups. The ‘under’ went 4-1 last week and is 7-1 over the past two weeks. On the season, the low side is 20-14 (58%) in divisional games and we’ve got four more on tap Sunday, which all begin at 1:00 p.m. ET.

    Detroit at Minnesota:
    The ‘under’ is on a 7-2 run in this series and that includes a 5-0 mark at Minnesota. The Vikings have watched the ‘under’ go 3-1 at home and the offense has actually hurt the defense with plenty of mistakes that have led to points.

    Pittsburgh at Baltimore:
    Rematch game here as the Ravens defeated the Steelers 26-14 as three-point road ‘dogs on SNF in Week 4 and the ‘under’ (51) connected even though the game was tied 14-14 at halftime. Including that result, the ‘under’ is 5-2 in the last seven encounters and the last three games in Baltimore have been slugfests with combined scores of 35, 35 and 37. Lower total for the second go ‘round makes you believe another fight is pending.

    Tampa Bay at Carolina:
    The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight games in this series and seven of the last 10 but a shootout is expected this week. As noted above, the Bucs defense is suspect and Carolina is clicking right now. With that being said, I thought the Panthers should be giving more points and the number almost seems like a trap. Plus, Carolina heads to Pittsburgh on Thursday so a look-ahead angle could be in play.

    N.Y. Jets at Miami:
    The Dolphins stifled the Jets 20-12 in Week 2 as the ‘under’ (43) hit. New York rookie quarterback Sam Darnold moved the ball in that game and New York left points off the board with turnovers. You would expect a rebound in the rematch, especially the way Miami’s defense (37 PPG) has looked in their last two games. The last two games played between the pair at Hard Rock Stadium have watched the two teams combine for 59 and 50 points.

    Under the Lights

    For the second straight week, we saw the ‘under’ produce a 2-1 record in the primetime matchups and the same combination occurred with the ‘over’ cashing Thursday before the last two contests on Sunday and Monday went low. The ‘under’ connected in this week’s midweek game between the Raiders and 49ers and the low side is now 14-12 in the night games played this season.

    Green Bay at New England:
    Bettors could be cautious to touch the side on this game knowing the Packers are coming off a tough loss on the West Coast and the Patriots are playing on a short week. As far as the total goes, it’s hard to argue for the ‘under’ here. Green Bay’s defense (30.3 PPG) has been horrible on the road and the Patriots offense (39.3 PPG) at Foxboro is on fire in their last three games. Plus, the New England defense (23.1 PPG, 382.8 YPG) is far from good and the pass defense has been diced up by guys names Luck, Mahomes and even Trubisky. This week’s opponent is Rodgers and he’s certainly notches above that trio. New England has split its totals this season vs. the NFC North but Green Bay has watched its last five road games against the AFC go ‘over’ the number.

    Tennessee at Dallas:
    This is the second lowest total in Week 9 and both teams enter with identical 5-2 ‘under’ records. The Titans (15.1 PPG) and Cowboys (20 PPG) haven’t shown any punch offensively this season and while they come into this game rested (see above), it would be surprising to see fireworks. Plus, Dallas (17.6 PPG) and Tennessee (18.1) enter this game with the second and third ranked scoring defenses respectively. Stranger things have happened under the lights but getting both teams into the twenties seems like a stretch from what we’ve seen so far.

    Fearless Predictions

    Almost pulled off the sweep last week but I was “Gurley-ed” as well. The 3-1 day (+195) pushed over five units ($535) as we near the midseason. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

    Best Over: Packers-Patriots 56
    Best Under: Houston-Denver 45 ½
    Best Team Total: Under 21 ½ Detroit Lions

    Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
    Under 60 Kansas City-Cleveland
    Over 40 L.A. Chargers-Seattle
    Over 50 L.A. Rams-New Orleans

  8. #23
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    Gridiron Angles - Week 9
    Vince Akins


    -- The Chiefs are 10-0 ATS (10.5 ppg) since Oct 06, 2013 on the road when they are off two consecutive 7+ point wins.


    -- The Texans are 0-10-1 ATS (-6.6 ppg) since Dec 15, 2002 as a dog off a win in which they scored 10+ points more than their season-to-date average.


    -- The Ravens are 0-8 OU (-11.3 ppg) since Dec 24, 2011 at home when coming off a loss where Joe Flacco threw at least two interceptions.


    -- The Chargers are 12-0-1 OU (13.9 ppg) since Nov 12, 2006 on the road off a game as a favorite where they had less than 28 minutes time of possession.


    -- The Browns are 0-11 OU (-10.0 ppg) since Nov 06, 2016 at home coming off a game where they allowed at least 24 points.


    -- The Texans are 0-14 ATS (-10.29 ppg) as a dog off a home game in which they rushed for at least 42 yards more than their season-to-date average.

  9. #24
    Join Date
    Dec 2002


    Essentials - Week 9
    November 4, 2018
    By Tony Mejia


    Detroit at Minnesota (-5/48.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX:
    The NFC North is packed so tightly that all four teams are separated by a single game due to the Packers and Vikings having tied, making this one vital to both. New Lions head coach Matt Patricia won his divisional debut at home against Green Bay and will be on the road for his next two tests in the “Black and Blue” since a visit to Soldier Field is on tap next week. Detroit comes off a 28-14 home loss to Seattle where it scored a season-low 14 points, sputtering in the red zone when it mattered most. Golden Tate led the team in targets and was subsequently traded to Philadelphia earlier this week, ending his five-year run and leaving Marvin Jones, Jr. and Kenny Golladay to even larger roles in the Matthew Stafford-led offense. Rookie RB Kerryon Johnson should be heavily featured against a Vikings defense that got carved up the Saints last Sunday night and will be looking to get back on track.

    Minnesota should have safety Andrew Sendejo (groin) back but lists corner Xavier Rhodes as a game-time decision due to an ankle tweak and are thin with quality depth at that spot after losing first-round pick Mike Hughes to a torn-ACL in mid-October. Linebacker Anthony Barr remains out, so a defense that gave up their second 30-point game of the season and has been susceptible to big plays may be shorthanded. WR Stefon Diggs isn’t expected to play due to injured ribs, which will test how effective Adam Thielen can be without another top target to deflect attention from him. The Lions are likely to have corner Darius Slay (knee) in the mix and could have Ziggy Ansah back for the first time since he suffered a Week 1 shoulder injury if he’s able to make it through pre-game warmups. Vikings second-year RB Dalvin Cook should play on a pitch count but will help ease the burden of missing Diggs and keeps Latavius Murray fresher. Detroit has won three of four games against Minnesota. All have been one-possession games.

    Kansas City (-8/52) at Cleveland, 1 p.m. ET, CBS:
    With head coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley out, the Baker Mayfield-led Browns offense is under new leadership. Freddie Kitchens, who has never called plays at the college or pro level, will be in charge of getting an offense that hasn’t enjoyed a lot of success of late. He’ll have to work around a steady wind and figures to be at a disadvantage with veteran Andy Reid doing his thing with better weapons on the other side. Mayfield does get a break in that he likeoy won’t have to deal with top pass rusher Justin Houston, who returned to practice but isn’t expected to play. Same goes for safety Eric Berry.

    Mayfield may be working without one of his favorite targets since rookie speedster Antonio Callaway will test his knee pre-game to try and participate. Slot WR Rashard Higgins is also dealing with a balky knee, while center J.C. Tretter is trying to work his way back from a high ankle sprain. It remains to be seen how aggressive either of these teams will be given the weather, but to his credit, Patrick Mahomes has done some of his best work on the road since the Chiefs are averaging 36.8 points away from Arrowhead. He’ll have the key to it all, Tyreek Hill, whose speed compromises defense, playing through a groin issue. He’s been great on the road, scoring six of his seven TDs in opposing stadiums.

    Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-2/46.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Steelers saw their three-game winning streak over the Ravens snapped in Week 4, scoring a season-low 14 points and converting on just two of 12 third downs while rushing for only 19 yards. James Conner only got nine carries, so if you’re looking for something that should be different in this second meeting, that’s where you should start. With Le’Veon Bell still away, Conner remains Pittsburgh’s top option out of the backfield and has touched it at least 23 times in each of the past three games, amassing 526 total yards while rushing for a pair of TDs in each of the contests. Pittsburgh has averaged 34 points since last seeing Baltimore, winning all three times to move back ahead in the AFC North.

    The Ravens rank 22nd against the run and second in the NFL against the pass, so seeing Ben Roethlisberger drop back 47 times like he did in the first game would be curious. He’s wearing a splint on his left index finger, but since it’s not his throwing hand, that shouldn’t factor in much. Only tackle Marcus Gilbert’s status is in doubt on the offensive side of the ball and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him miss a second straight game. Weather in Baltimore won’t be an issue, surprising this time of year, so we should see Joe Flacco test a secondary that he torched for 363 yards on Sept. 30, especially with corners Artie Burns and Coty Sensabaugh attempting to make it back from injuries. Baltimore will have RB Alex Collins (foot) available for his normal share of carries but both tackles, Ronnie Stanley (ankle) and James Hurst (back), have been ruled out. Rookie Orlando Brown Jr. and second-year undrafted free agent Jermaine Eluemunor will start against a Pittsburgh defense that ranks second with 24 sacks. Baltimore last swept the Steelers in 2015 and have also pulled that off in ’06 and ’11.

    Tampa Bay at Carolina (-6/54.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Bucs get back DT Gerald McCoy and DE Vinny Curry, so we’ll see whether any rust has developed as they return from leg injuries. Considering how well Cam Newton has played over the past month-plus, they won’t have much of a grace period. The Panthers star has thrown 13 TD passes since failing to do so in Week 1 and has run for 43 or more yards in each of the last three games to help compensate for a shoulder injury. He won’t have Torrey Smith due to a knee injury but has demonstrated improved chemistry with rookie D.J. Moore, who averaged 18.4 yards every time he touched the ball last week. Versatile RB Christian McCaffrey ran for a score and caught a pass for one last week, pulling that off for just the second time in his pro career. The Panthers are seeking their first three-game winning streak of the season, which would match last season’s longest run.

    Tampa Bay has turned the offense back to Ryan Fitzpatrick after he led a comeback from an 18-point deficit in Cincinnati last week. Jameis Winston, currently a turnover machine, will serve as the backup. Center Evan Smith will be absent due to a hip issue, so we’ll see if that affects the timing of the Bucs offense, which will also be bolstered by Mike Evans gutting it out through a knee injury after coming off the injury report on Friday. Carolina’s defense is as healthy as it has been all season. The Panthers have won eight of 10 in this series, sweeping in ’17 and from ’13-’15.

    N.Y. Jets (-3/41) at Miami, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Considering both of these teams are already on the outside looking in as far as the AFC playoff picture is concerned, this is a must-win as the second half of the season begins. It’s therefore not ideal that Miami will again be without starting QB Ryan Tannehill, who remains bothered by shoulder trouble. Brock Osweiler is back at the controls for a fourth straight start and hasn’t been the culprit in the most recent Dolphins setbacks since the defense has given up 33.4 points over the last five games. The Dolphins secondary was set to be as healthy as it had been in mix before CB Cordrea Tankersley tore is ACL this week, so the shuffling continues. New York rookie QB Sam Darnold threw for 334 yards in Miami’s 20-12 Week 2 win at Met Life Stadium but is far more seasoned and should get back top WRs Robby Anderson (ankle) and Quincy Enunwa (hip). The Dolphins won’t get WR Kenny Stills (groin) back, so DeVante Parker should play a big role again.

    Both teams may have to deal with less than ideal field conditions after last night’s UM-Duke game that featured play in a torrential downpour. The team that handles the adversity best and is able to wrap up on tackles should persevere here and it remains to be seen if weather is a concern today since rain storms could stick around until just after kickoff before dissipating. South Florida weather can be tricky to predict. Miami is looking for a second sweep of the Jets in three seasons and would move above .500 despite a tumultuous few months if they hold serve at home, where they come in 3-1. The Jets have dropped three straight road games following their Week 1 rout of the Lions, averaging just 13 points in the setbacks.

    Atlanta at Washington (-2/47.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The NFC East-leading ‘Skins got bad news since standout tackle Trent Williams won’t play for about a month. WR Paul Richardson will be out there, but pass-catching RB Chris Thompson and WR Jamison Crowder will miss another game as their injury-riddled seasons continue. A defense that has really stepped up in surrendering just 14.3 points over this current three-game winning streak must again rise up against a Falcons attack that has topped 30 in five of eight and features Matt Ryan working with most everyone with the exception of RB Devonta Freeman, who was placed on IR last month. WR Mohamed Sanu, dealing with a hip injury, will be out there for Atlanta.

    As a result, Washington’s secondary must be on high alert and will have some moving parts to be aware of with Ha Ha Clinton-Dix expected to be available after coming over from Green Bay and versatile Montae Nicholson scheduled to play through a hip concern. With the Alex Smith-led passing attack compromised by injuries, the importance of Adrian Peterson can’t be overstated, so we’ll see if 33-year-old Adrian Peterson can build on last week’s 149-yard outburst against the Giants despite nursing a shoulder injury. The Falcons haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher all season and rank sixth in the NFL against the run.

    Chicago (-10/37.5) at Buffalo, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Khalil Mack is unlikely to play against the lowly Bills, though he’s expected to test out his ankle prior to kickoff to see if he can go. The Bears probably don’t need him to contain a Bills attack led by interception-happy QB Nathan Peterman, whose presence means it could be Christmas for Bears defensive backs. Peterman has been picked off twice in each of his two starts and is just as likely to connect with Prince Amukamara as he is LeSean McCoy.

    Buffalo’s best bet is continuing to be stingy against the run and coaxing Mitch Trubisky into mistakes, so we could see a conservative game plan in place for the Bears. Chicago isn’t likely to have top WR Allen Robinson in the mix due to a groin injury, which could mean more work for Taylor Gabriel and promising rookie Antony “Pig” Miller. It’s going to be a rainy, windy day at Soldier Field, but both teams are used to playing in inclement weather.

    Houston at Denver (-1/46), 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS: Demariyus Thomas is likely to be in the starting lineup for the Texans opposite top target DeAndre Hopkins. It’s a unique situation for the long-time Bronco who will likely see his name in the team’s Ring of Honor at some point next decade, but Denver is attempting to get younger and rebuild on the run to try and make the most of a season that has hit the skids once again under Vance Joseph. Although Chris Harris will be roaming the defensive backfield for the Broncos, Thomas won’t see many of the guys he’s toiled against in practices all these years since CB Bradley Roby and safety Darian Stewart are out and Aqib Talib is now with the Rams. Safety Su’a Cravens and LB Shane Ray will both be out there for Denver despite knee injuries.

    Even though the calendar has turned to November, snow won’t factor in today as a mild day is expected, weather-wise. That should help Thomas in his attempt to find chemistry with QB Deshaun Watson immediately. Expect him to draw targets since he was brought in to replace Will Fuller, who was lost for the season with a torn ACL. Slot receiver Keke Coutee (hamstring) is sidelined as well, but Houston still has plenty of weapons to try and punish a defense that ranks 22nd in total yardage allowed. Jadeveon Clowney (groin) is expected to suit up, but Houston’s defense may have to overcome the absence of corners Johnathan Joseph (ankle), Aaron Colvin (ankle).
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  10. #25
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    Thanks, as always, Bum!

    The sources are really dragging it today when it comes to hockey and hoops. I'll put it in your threads when it comes out.

  11. #26
    Join Date
    Jul 2002


    Rob Gronkowski (back/ankle) and running back Sony Michel (knee). Both players are inactive tonight.
    Common sense is not so common.
    “You can have everything you want in life if you help enough other people get what they want out of life.” Zig Ziglar

    Sports Matchups

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    “Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.”
    ― Dr. Seuss

    “a soft answer turns away wrath” (Proverbs 15:1)

    We make a living by what we get, but we make a life by what we give.


  12. #27
    Join Date
    Dec 2002


    Thanks buddy..................
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  13. #28
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    MNF - Titans at Cowboys
    Kevin Rogers


    Both these teams are off the bye last week as each squad looks to climb back to the .500 mark. The Titans (3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS) were once 3-1 after three consecutive three-point wins. However, the offense has scored a total of 31 points in the past three losses, while coming off a 20-19 defeat to the Chargers in London back in Week 7. Tennessee cashed as 6 ½-point underdogs to improve to 4-1 ATS when receiving points, but there were many questions on why the Titans didn’t win.

    The Titans erased a 17-6 deficit to creep within one point in the final minute on a Marcus Mariota touchdown pass to Luke Stocker on fourth down. However, instead of opting for the tie and overtime, Titans’ head coach Mike Vrabel put his offense on the field for the game-winning two-point conversion. Tennessee didn’t convert as that call was questioned by the pundits, even though the Titans’ defense limited Los Angeles to one touchdown in the final three quarters and the Titans had momentum late.

    The Cowboys (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) have not owned a winning record this season, while alternating wins and losses through the first seven games. Prior to the bye, Dallas fell short at Washington, 20-17 as kicker Brett Maher hit the post on a game-tying field goal in the final seconds. Running back Ezekiel Elliott ranked second in the NFL in rushing yards heading into Week 9, as the former Ohio State standout was limited to a season-low 33 yards against Washington.

    Off a win this season, the Cowboys have scored 13, 16, and 17 points. However, Dallas has put up 20, 26, and 40 off a loss, which is the situation the Cowboys are in this week. The Cowboys and Titans are part of a three-team group that has not allowed more than 27 points in a game this season, while the Eagles are the other.


    The Cowboys have yet to lose a game at AT&T Stadium this season by beating the Giants, Lions, and Jaguars. Yes, it has worked out that Dallas faced all those off road losses, where they are 0-4 this season. Dallas has split its first against the spread in the home favorite role by cashing against New York, but needing a late field goal to edge Detroit. Since 2016, the Cowboys have covered in four of five opportunities as a home favorite of six points or more, while being listed in that range for the first time this season.


    Tennessee has thrived in the underdog role this season by covering in four of five opportunities. Prior to the one-point loss (and cover) against the Chargers in London, the Titans had won outright when receiving points in their first three chances against the Texans, Jaguars, and Eagles. The 4-1 ATS mark under Vrabel is a significant change from the 4-6 ATS record last season as an underdog, while the Titans posted a horrific 9-18 ATS ledger from 2014 through 2017.


    Before the Texans were even a thought, the Cowboys and the then-Oilers were the two main attractions in the Lone Star State. Since the Titans moved to Nashville in 1998, Tennessee and Dallas have hooked up five times in the regular season with the Cowboys coming out victorious three times. The Cowboys knocked off the Titans in their last meeting at Tennessee in 2014 as three-point underdogs, 26-10. Every main offensive weapon on both sides is no longer on the active roster as tight end Delanie Walker is the lone contributor still on one of these teams, but he is sidelined with a season-ending ankle injury.


    The Cowboys have won in each of their last three opportunities on Monday night football since 2015. In the past two seasons, Dallas has cruised in the favorite role on Mondays by pounding Detroit, 42-21 in 2016 and taking care of Arizona last season, 28-17 as three-point chalk. The Titans have covered six consecutive Monday night games dating back to 2008, while winning five times straight-up. Last season, Tennessee pulled away from Indianapolis, 36-22 after rallying from a 10-point deficit in the first half.


    Handicapper Joe Nelson checks in on this interconference matchup by noting how competitive Tennessee has been this season, “Six of the seven games for the Titans have been decided by a single-score, making this underdog spread of nearly a full touchdown appealing. However, Tennessee is on a 12-25 ATS run in road games since 2014. The Titans have the third-best scoring defense in the NFL allowing 18.1 points per game but only Arizona and Buffalo have been worse scoring teams with Tennessee averaging 15.1 points per game.”

    Two seasons ago, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys owned the best record in the NFC. Things have changed quickly for the former Mississippi State standout, according to Nelson, “Prescott has been a top 4 QBR quarterback each of the past two seasons for the Cowboys, but with some changes on the offensive line, he has struggled this season. He and Mariota are both outside of the league’s top 20 in QBR at this point in the season. The numbers are even worse in traditional QB Rating with Prescott 24th and Mariota 30th as the star quarterbacks trail players like Derek Carr, Brock Osweiler, and Eli Manning in that metric.”

    Nelson also notes that Dallas needs to end their inconsistent ways if it wants to make a playoff push in the NFC, “For Dallas, road games at Philadelphia and at Atlanta follow this game as the season is certainly at a critical juncture. All four losses have come by 11 or fewer points vs. winning teams while the wins for Dallas have all come at home vs. losing teams. Dallas made a bye week deal for Amari Cooper looking to boost the offensive potential of the team though he remains questionable with a concussion. Cooper was one of the best receivers in the league in 2015 and 2016, but has just 70 catches for 960 yards over his past 20 games.”


    The Westgate Superbook opened the Cowboys as 6 ½-point favorites last Monday. However, that line has dropped to Dallas laying four at the Westgate, while other books are showing Dallas -4 ½. There hasn’t been much movement on the total, which opened at 41, as this number has dipped to 40 ½ at most outfits.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-05-2018 at 12:23 PM.

  14. #29
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    Bettors jump on Panthers' opening odds for NFL Week 10 battle vs. Steelers
    Patrick Everson

    Greg Olsen and the Panthers have won and covered in their last three games, which has apparently caught bettors' attention. Carolina opened +6.5 at Pittsburgh and was quickly bet to +5.5.

    Every NFL team will have at least half the season in the rearview mirror when Week 9 concludes Monday night. We check in on the opening lines and early action for a quartet of Week 10 contests, with insights from John Murray and Derek Wilkinson, director and supervisor, respectively, of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

    Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)

    Pittsburgh is starting to look more like, well, Pittsburgh heading into this Thursday night contest. The Steelers (5-2-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) have won and covered four in a row and five of six, including a 23-16 Week 9 victory at Baltimore as 1.5-point underdogs.

    Carolina won and cashed in its last three outings and is 5-1 SU in its last six, trying to keep pace with New Orleans in the NFC South. The Panthers (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) bolted to a 35-7 lead against Tampa Bay, but had to hang on late in a 42-28 win as 6-point home favorites in Week 9.

    There was no action on this number in the first hour after it was posted, but Carolina drew some cash Sunday night.

    “We got a decent-sized bet on Panthers +6.5 and another at +6,” Wilkinson said. “Also, the market evened out lower than we anticipated.”

    Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-9.5)

    Los Angeles finally exited the ranks of the undefeated, well after every other NFL team had at least one loss. The Rams (8-1 SU, 4-5 ATS) found themselves in a 35-14 second-quarter hole at New Orleans, came all the way back to tie the game at 35, but couldn’t quite finish in a 45-35 setback laying 1.5 points.

    Seattle looked like it was finding good form with a 4-1 SU and ATS run heading into Week 9. But the Seahawks (4-4 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) fell flat at home against San Diego, losing 25-17 as 1-point home pups.

    “We opened it Rams -9.5 and took one bet on the Rams so far, but nothing noteworthy,” Murray said. “The Rams will be included in every teaser and moneyline parlay next week.”

    The SuperBook moved with the market to Rams -10 on Sunday night.

    Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)

    The NFC East is completely up for grabs at the midway point, and defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia is rested for the second half, coming off its bye week. The Eagles (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) beat Jacksonville 24-18 laying 3.5 points on the road in Week 8, but have yet to win back-to-back games this season.

    Dallas still has some Week 9 work to do before thinking about this Sunday night NFC East clash. The Cowboys (3-4 SU and ATS), coming off a Week 8 bye, host Tennessee in the Monday nighter.

    “We opened Eagles -6 and haven't seen any bets yet on either side,” Murray said. “We will need Dallas by kickoff on Sunday night.”

    Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)

    Green Bay is in the midst of a very tough stretch of four road games in five weeks, the first two of which were in Weeks 8 and 9, taking the squad from the West Coast to the East Coast. In the Week 9 Sunday nighter, the Packers (3-4-1 SU, 3-5 ATS) traveled to New England as 5-point ‘dogs and couldn’t keep up in the second half, falling 31-17.

    Miami got out of the gate 3-0 SU and ATS, then spent the past several weeks trying to regain that form. The Dolphins (5-4 SU and ATS) ended a 1-4 SU and ATS skid by slogging past the New York Jets 13-6 as 3-point home favorites in Week 9.

    “We opened Packers -7.5 and took some money on Miami, but we are leaving the line there,” Murray said. “I'm sure we will want more Miami money by Sunday.”

    Per The SuperBook’s standard operating procedure, the line on this game was taken off the board while the Packers battled the Patriots on Sunday night. The line will go back up Monday morning.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-05-2018 at 12:28 PM.



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