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Thread: NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (Thur. Nov. 1 - Mon. Nov. 5)

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    Default NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (Thur. Nov. 1 - Mon. Nov. 5)



    NFL Trends and Indexes

    Thursday. November 1 - Monday. November 5

    Additional trends and information will be added as available.

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Opening Line Report - Week 9
    Joe Williams

    We're halfway through the National Football League regular season, and it seems like only yesterday that we were just starting out. All of a sudden there is a chill in the air, the leaves have changed colors in the northern tier and the calendar is about to flip to November. We're also seeing divisional teams start to play each other for the second time this season.

    In Week 9, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens will meet in Charm City, and the Steelers are seeking revenge after a 26-14 setback on their home field earlier in the season on a Sunday night. The New York Jets and Miami Dolphins are meetings under the same circumstances, as the Dolphins picked up a win in New Jersey earlier this season.

    This week's most anticipated games will be later Sunday afternoon and on Sunday evening. The Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints meet in a possible playoff preview down on the Bayou, while the Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots hook up in a battle of two potential first-ballot Hall of Fame signal callers in Foxboro.

    Thursday, Nov. 1

    Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 46.5)


    There has been very little movement so far on this game. The game did open at 3 1/2 at a few shops like Jerry
    s Nugget, Stations and Stratosphere, but they're in line with most every other shop at a flat three as of Tuesday morning. The Raiders have a lot of uncertainty on offense, the 49ers folded late on the road against the Cardinals, and personnel could change at the 4:00 p.m. ET trade deadline on Tuesday, too, which might impact the line slightly.

    Sunday, Nov. 4

    Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 50.5)


    Speaking of the trade deadline, the Lions might be sellers of WR Golden Tate, although reports say they'd need to be bowled over. The Vikings might be looking to add personnel, so we'll see what happens there.

    Most shops opened this game on the 5 1/2 line, although if you really love the Vikings you need to run, not walk, to Treasure Island, as they opened the Vikings at just -4 1/2. There movement on the line has been from an open of 51 down slightly to 50 1/2 across the board, althoug the Wynn still offered the game at 51 at last check.

    Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5, 51.5) at Cleveland Browns

    Oh those crazy Cleveland Browns. They should be super prepared for the Kansas City Chiefs with an interim head coach and a new offensive coordinator, right? Oct. 29 was Black Monday in 'The Land', as head coach Hue Jackson and dueling offensive coordinator Todd Haley were each shown the door in favor of Gregg Williams, who will stick as the defensive coordinator, too. Freddie Kitchens moves into an OC role for now.

    Jerry's Nugget opened this game at -8, it slid to -7 1/2 at one point, and is now back up to -8. The Strat opened at -7 1/2 and it was quickly bet up to -8 1/2. It wouldn't be surprising in the least to see this game peak at double digits before all is said and done. Offshore, Sportsbook.ag is holding steady at -9 if you love the Browns and want more points, while BetOnline.ag sits at -8. This will be one of the more interesting game lines to watch all week.

    Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 47)

    All shops offered this up at -3 with the lone exception being TI, which opened the game at -2 1/2. That was quickly bet up to 3, getting in line with everyone else. While the Steelers are 1-6-1 ATS in the past eight in this series, the road team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings, and the underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight. Total bettors might start jumping on the 47, too, perhaps driving that down. Last time they met, the teams combined for just 40 points, and the under is 4-0 in the past four meetings in Charm City.

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-7, 54)

    The Buccaneers made a switch at QB, going from Jameis Winston to Ryan Fitzpatrick, but Vegas isn't buying Fitz-magic. The line opened at -6 1/2 at most shops and quickly went to a flat 7. Southpoint and Strat opened the game at -6, and you can still get it at less than a touchdown.

    New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3, 45)

    This line hasn't moved one iota, opening at -3 and staying at -3 throughout the day on Monday. There was some movement on the line, going from 46 to 45 1/2 at Caesars/Harrah's, but Round 2 of this AFC East rivalry hasn't generated a lot of interest as of yet.

    Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins (-1.5, 47.5)

    This line has had a lot of movement during the early going. Caesar's opened at Washington -1 1/2, it slipped to a pick 'em, and now the Redskins are back listed at -1. Most everyone is offering at -1 1/2, and even the Strat, which had the 'Skins at -2 1/2 is down a full point to where everyone else is at the moment. The same holds true with Westgate Superbook, which is down a full point from -2 1/2 to -1 1/2, which the total went down slightly from 48 to 47 1/2, too.

    Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills (OFF)

    The books are still dealing with the dumpster fire that is Buffalo's offense. Derek Anderson left the game late with an arm injury, Josh Allen remains sidelined and Nathan Peterman could be thrust into action. There is also the uncertainty of whether Khalil Mack can play for Chicago in the city he played his college ball. Stay tuned.

    Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 46)

    The Texans are on a roll, winners of five in a row to get to the top of the AFC South. So they're underdogs to the skidding Broncos. Hmm. This game could see personnel changes on offense for the Broncos, as WR Demaryius Thomas can reportedly be had. Watch that closely. Westgate opened this one as a pick 'em and the bread came flowing in on the home team, as now Denver is favored by -2 1/2.

    Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, 48)

    It seems the Seahawks have been flying under the radar and now they're starting to fly high. A big road win in Detroit, 28-14, has them on a roll, although well behind the first-place Rams. Bettors seem to like the Bolts, though, especially coming off a bye. Mirage-MGM opened the game at -1 1/2, and it's down to Seattle -1. Westgate opened at -2 1/2, and it fell all the way to a pick 'em in a matter of a few hours, but going back up to -1 1/2. This is another line to watch with plenty of movement.

    Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-1, 60)

    Back on Oct. 29, 2000, the then St. Louis Rams traveled to San Francisco with a line that closed at 61 1/2. That was the highest-ever during the regular season. NFL lines rarely go over 60. Vegas is expecting quite a bit of fireworks under the dome on Sunday afternoon, eh?

    The under is 4-1 in the past five for the Saints on field turf, including last week in Minnesota. However, the over is 18-7-1 in the past 26 at home for the Saints, and the over is 4-1 in the past five meetings in NOLA between these two sides.

    Going back to that 2000 game, the total amount of points scored that afternoon was 58, slightly under the close.

    Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (-6.5, 57.5)

    The line has been holding steady at Patriots -6 1/2 across the board, not that many bettors could feel terribly confident with the offense they saw in Buffalo on Monday night. New England was atrocious, and their leading rusher was WR Cordarrelle Patterson. Changes could be made, though, as again...trade deadline. The Pats are also known to have a plan up their sleeve.

    Monday, Nov. 5

    Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 41)


    The Titans will be the first team to try and slow down WR Amari Cooper in a Cowboys uniform. Both teams come off a bye, and they have the luxury of an extra day of rest, too, with the game being played on Monday.

    CG Technology had Dallas listed at -4 1/2 to open, quickly moving to -6. The Strat also opened at -4 1/2, and quickly rose to -6 1/2 in less than 24 hours. Westgate went all the way from -4 to -6 1/2 in about 19 hours. Early bettors are feeling the Cowboys in their Jerry World on Monday night. Meanwhile, the total has tumbled from 42 1/2 to 41 at BetOnline.ag offshore.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-31-2018 at 01:55 AM.

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    Hot & Not Report
    YouWager

    Week of October 29th

    It was a NBA focus with this piece last week, as the season was about a week old at the time, and the ATS leaderboard was seemingly flipped upside down. Championship contenders from the West like Golden State, Houston, OKC, and the Lakers were all struggling to cover a number, while many of the expected bottom-feeders in the standings were cashing tickets every night.

    Well, a week later and things flipped for many of the teams mentioned on both sides of the coin last week. Cleveland's 2-1 ATS start quickly fell to 3-3 ATS, as the Cavs remain the only winless team (SU) in the league and it cost HC Tyronn Lue his job. New York, Charlotte, and Orlando also had losing weeks against the spread after a hot first seven days, as you had to figure these sub-par teams with lackluster talent were eventually going to fall sooner rather than later.

    At the same time, those expected contenders out West are all still in the bottom third of the ATS records league wide at the moment, with OKC just getting their first outright victory on Sunday night. But the 2-9 ATS combined record the Warriors, Lakers, Thunder, and Rockets had last Monday sits at 7-16 ATS a week later, so it was still profitable to be fading all those teams and their inflated point spread numbers.

    I'll check back in on the NBA in a few weeks as there is still plenty of basketball to be played – and subsequent data to settle – so it's back to the gridiron this week to take a look at the streaky NFL scenarios worth pointing out.

    Who's Hot

    Veteran 30+ year-old QB's head into Week 9 on a roll – 5 teams on streaks of 3+ ATS wins


    Entering Week 9, we will have five NFL teams who come into the week having covered the spread in at least their last three contests. Those teams would be Seattle (3-0 ATS), New Orleans (5-0 ATS), Washington (3-0 ATS), Denver (3-0 ATS) and Pittsburgh (3-0 ATS). That's quite a strong run for those five organizations, and what they all have in common is some stability at the QB position with signal callers that all 30 years old or older this year (Seattle's Russell Wilson turns 30 at the end of November).

    That's not to say that experience runs this league right now, but at the halfway point of the season when teams are really separating themselves one way or another, it clearly doesn't hurt to have your money backing a QB that's been around the league a few times.

    What makes a trend like this even more prominent is the fact that in Week 8 alone, of the 11 teams to cover the point spread on Sunday, seven of them finished the game with signal callers in their age 30 year or greater (again counting Russell Wilson as a 30-year old).

    Those results are a bit of a throwback to the days when the NFL was a rough place for rookie/young QB's as they either sat on the bench for a few years to learn the intricacies of the game (like Aaron Rodgers) or took their lumps for a year or two and learned via the “trial by fire” method (like Peyton Manning). It's only been in the past decade or so that we've really seen young QB's flourish right out of the gate, and it's probably because of those positive results organizations have experienced going that route that we see more and more teams going with the “trial by fire” method for their presumed future of the franchise QB's.

    These ATS results would suggest that there is at least some pullback to those results/expectations for young QB's as it seemingly doesn't hurt to have a veteran chucking the ball around and reading defenses. Those five teams I isolated earlier are all in action in Week 9, with four of the five (everyone but Pittsburgh) at home and laying less than a FG. In games where you've just got to pick the outright winner, chances are backing the likes of Seattle, Denver, New Orleans, and Washington at home in Week 9 with their veteran QB's calling the shots may not be such a bad idea.

    Who's Not

    Warm weather teams that can't take care of the ball – Bottom four teams in Turnover Margin all have losing ATS records


    It should never come as a surprise that when a team turns the ball over frequently that wins (SU or ATS) will be extremely had to come by, but the fact that the four worst teams in turnover margin through eight weeks – Oakland (-6), Jacksonville (-11), San Francisco (-13) and Tampa Bay (-13) all play in warm weather climates isn't the only common bond they all have. Questions at the QB position plague all four of these organizations in 2018, with San Francisco being the only ones with a long-term answer in their pocket once Jimmy Garoppollo comes back.

    Now turnovers tend to regress towards the mean through a full 16-game schedule, but can you really be confident in that happening for any of these organizations? Tampa Bay has flipped flopped between QB's all year and appear to be going back to 30+ year-old Ryan Fitzpatrick again, but he originally lost his starting role this year – one that he earned from great play – because of throwing too many INT's with his gunslinger mindset. Fitzpatrick isn't going to change how he plays the game, so chances are Tampa Bay is going to remain at or near the bottom of this turnover margin list.

    Jacksonville is one more bad Blake Bortles game away from an all-out mutiny in that locker room, although Bortles wasn't entirely to blame for their loss to the Eagles over in London this week. But the whole is Bortles a capable NFL starting QB debate is not something new for the Jaguars, and they are on the brink of wasting a season with a talented defense simply because the offense can't hold onto the ball and give them a chance. You'd like to think that Bortles development as a NFL player would help him mitigate his turnovers, but that's been his issue throughout his career.

    Finally, had Tampa Bay not come back for a back-door cover against the Bengals on Sunday, all four of these teams would be on some brutal ATS streaks at the moment. San Francisco is on a 0-2 ATS run the past two weeks, while Oakland is 0-3 ATS in their last three and Jacksonville is 0-4 ATS in their last four. Hopefully for Jags fans, their team can figure out some of their issues during their bye in Week 9, but we will see either Oakland or San Francisco snap their respective streaks since they meet on TNF this week.

    That TNF game may have already been one you were looking to avoid because it's two bad teams going nowhere on a short week, but given the ATS records of the Raiders and 49ers this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see whomever does cover the spread to be gifted the ATS victory thanks to a turnover advantage.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-31-2018 at 01:56 AM.

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    NFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 9


    Thursday. November 1

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    OAKLAND (1 - 6) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 7) - 11/1/2018, 8:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OAKLAND is 51-83 ATS (-40.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 38-80 ATS (-50.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    Sunday. November 4

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    DETROIT (3 - 4) at MINNESOTA (4 - 3 - 1) - 11/4/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DETROIT is 63-88 ATS (-33.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    MINNESOTA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 42-25 ATS (+14.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DETROIT is 3-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
    DETROIT is 3-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    KANSAS CITY (7 - 1) at CLEVELAND (2 - 5 - 1) - 11/4/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    KANSAS CITY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
    KANSAS CITY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    PITTSBURGH (4 - 2 - 1) at BALTIMORE (4 - 4) - 11/4/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PITTSBURGH is 77-54 ATS (+17.6 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
    PITTSBURGH is 71-43 ATS (+23.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BALTIMORE is 4-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
    PITTSBURGH is 3-2 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    TAMPA BAY (3 - 4) at CAROLINA (5 - 2) - 11/4/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CAROLINA is 160-125 ATS (+22.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    CAROLINA is 83-51 ATS (+26.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
    TAMPA BAY is 64-38 ATS (+22.2 Units) in November games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CAROLINA is 2-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
    CAROLINA is 2-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NY JETS (3 - 5) at MIAMI (4 - 4) - 11/4/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MIAMI is 72-101 ATS (-39.1 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
    MIAMI is 56-82 ATS (-34.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
    MIAMI is 34-53 ATS (-24.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MIAMI is 2-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
    MIAMI is 4-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    ATLANTA (3 - 4) at WASHINGTON (5 - 2) - 11/4/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    WASHINGTON is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    WASHINGTON is 63-96 ATS (-42.6 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 25-46 ATS (-25.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    CHICAGO (4 - 3) at BUFFALO (2 - 5) - 11/4/2018, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    HOUSTON (5 - 3) at DENVER (3 - 5) - 11/4/2018, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DENVER is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in home games off a loss against a division rival since 1992.
    DENVER is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    DENVER is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    DENVER is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    LA CHARGERS (5 - 2) at SEATTLE (4 - 3) - 11/4/2018, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA CHARGERS is 48-27 ATS (+18.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
    SEATTLE is 45-67 ATS (-28.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    LA RAMS (8 - 0) at NEW ORLEANS (6 - 1) - 11/4/2018, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA RAMS is 188-235 ATS (-70.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 188-235 ATS (-70.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 134-185 ATS (-69.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 146-186 ATS (-58.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 68-100 ATS (-42.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
    NEW ORLEANS is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ORLEANS is 1-1 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ORLEANS is 1-1 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    GREEN BAY (3 - 3 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (6 - 2) - 11/4/2018, 8:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ENGLAND is 33-13 ATS (+18.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 33-13 ATS (+18.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 32-13 ATS (+17.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
    NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 68-45 ATS (+18.5 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
    NEW ENGLAND is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    Monday. November 5

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    TENNESSEE (3 - 4) at DALLAS (3 - 4) - 11/5/2018, 8:15 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TENNESSEE is 51-28 ATS (+20.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-31-2018 at 01:57 AM.

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    NFL

    Week 9


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    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Thursday. November 1

    Oakland Raiders
    Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Oakland is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Oakland's last 14 games
    Oakland is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
    Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games on the road
    Oakland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
    Oakland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
    San Francisco 49ers
    San Francisco is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
    San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of San Francisco's last 11 games
    San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    San Francisco is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games at home
    San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
    San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland



    Sunday. November 4

    Detroit Lions
    Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games
    Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 9 games on the road
    Detroit is 8-14-3 ATS in its last 25 games when playing Minnesota
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 9 games when playing Minnesota
    Detroit is 4-7-2 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
    Detroit is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
    Minnesota Vikings
    Minnesota is 3-6-2 ATS in its last 11 games
    Minnesota is 16-5-1 SU in its last 22 games
    Minnesota is 16-7-1 ATS in its last 24 games at home
    Minnesota is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Minnesota is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing Detroit
    Minnesota is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games when playing at home against Detroit
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit


    Chicago Bears
    Chicago is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
    Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    Chicago is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games on the road
    Chicago is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing Buffalo
    Buffalo Bills
    Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games
    Buffalo is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 14 of Buffalo's last 19 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing Chicago


    Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games
    Tampa Bay is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
    Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games on the road
    Tampa Bay is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Carolina
    Tampa Bay is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Carolina
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Carolina
    Tampa Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina
    Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Carolina
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Carolina
    Carolina Panthers
    Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games
    Carolina is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home
    Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 8 games at home
    Carolina is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Tampa Bay
    Carolina is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Tampa Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
    Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
    Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay


    Kansas City Chiefs
    Kansas City is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
    Kansas City is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
    Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games on the road
    Kansas City is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
    Cleveland Browns
    Cleveland is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
    Cleveland is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games
    Cleveland is 2-22-1 SU in its last 25 games
    Cleveland is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games at home
    Cleveland is 3-17-1 SU in its last 21 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Cleveland's last 17 games at home
    Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City


    New York Jets
    NY Jets is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    NY Jets is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games
    NY Jets is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    NY Jets is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 15 of NY Jets's last 23 games on the road
    NY Jets is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
    NY Jets is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing Miami
    NY Jets is 15-4-1 ATS in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Miami
    NY Jets is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
    Miami Dolphins
    Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 13 of Miami's last 19 games
    Miami is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    Miami is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games at home
    Miami is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing NY Jets
    Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing NY Jets
    Miami is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets
    Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets


    Pittsburgh Steelers
    Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games
    Pittsburgh is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
    Pittsburgh is 8-0-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 19 of Pittsburgh's last 25 games on the road
    Pittsburgh is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Baltimore
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing Baltimore
    Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
    Baltimore Ravens
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games
    Baltimore is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
    Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
    Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh


    Atlanta Falcons
    Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games
    Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road
    Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
    Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
    Atlanta is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Washington
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
    Washington Redskins
    Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Washington's last 11 games
    Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    Washington is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games at home
    Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
    Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
    Washington is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Atlanta
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta


    Los Angeles Chargers
    LA Chargers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of LA Chargers's last 18 games
    LA Chargers is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    LA Chargers is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 9 games on the road
    LA Chargers is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
    LA Chargers is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Seattle
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing Seattle
    LA Chargers is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
    LA Chargers is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Seattle
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
    Seattle Seahawks
    Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games
    Seattle is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games at home
    Seattle is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games at home
    Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
    Seattle is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing LA Chargers
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
    Seattle is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers


    Houston Texans
    Houston is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games
    Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Houston is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games
    Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Houston is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
    Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
    Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Denver
    Denver Broncos
    Denver is 5-14-1 ATS in its last 20 games
    Denver is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games
    Denver is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Denver is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games at home
    Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
    Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Houston


    Los Angeles Rams
    LA Rams is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Rams's last 9 games
    LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Rams's last 12 games on the road
    LA Rams is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing New Orleans
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
    New Orleans Saints
    New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games
    New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    New Orleans is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games at home
    New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing LA Rams
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams


    Green Bay Packers
    Green Bay is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
    Green Bay is 3-6-1 SU in its last 10 games
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Green Bay's last 13 games
    Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Green Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games on the road
    Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
    Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing New England
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing New England
    Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
    New England Patriots
    New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    New England is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games at home
    New England is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
    New England is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Green Bay
    New England is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
    New England is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay



    Monday. November 5

    Tennessee Titans
    Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games
    Tennessee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games on the road
    Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
    Dallas Cowboys
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Dallas's last 11 games
    Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-31-2018 at 01:58 AM.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    73,864
    Credits
    191,042

    Default

    NFL
    Dunkel

    Week 9



    Thursday, November 1

    Oakland @ San Francisco


    Game 307-308
    November 1, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Oakland
    115.204
    San Francisco
    127.505
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    San Francisco
    by 12 1/2
    45
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    San Francisco
    by 3
    46
    Dunkel Pick:
    San Francisco
    (-3); Under


    Sunday, November 4

    Detroit @ Minnesota


    Game 451-452
    November 4, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Detroit
    125.633
    Minnesota
    139.296
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Minnesota
    by 13 1/2
    47
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Minnesota
    by 4 1/2
    49 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Minnesota
    (-4 1/2); Under

    Kansas City @ Cleveland


    Game 453-454
    November 4, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Kansas City
    136.344
    Cleveland
    130.427
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Kansas City
    by 6
    49
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Kansas City
    by 9
    51 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Cleveland
    (+9); Under

    Baltimore @ Pittsburgh


    Game 455-456
    November 4, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Baltimore
    134.158
    Pittsburgh
    139.477
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Baltimore
    by 5 1/2
    44
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 3
    47 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Baltimore
    (+3); Under

    Tampa Bay @ Carolina


    Game 457-458
    November 4, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Tampa Bay
    131.875
    Carolina
    131.701
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Tampa Bay
    Even
    49
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Carolina
    by 7
    54 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Tampa Bay
    (+7); Under

    NY Jets @ Miami


    Game 459-460
    November 4, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    NY Jets
    127.261
    Miami
    124.290
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    NY Jets
    by 3
    47
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Miami
    by 3
    45
    Dunkel Pick:
    NY Jets
    (+3); Over

    Atlanta @ Washington


    Game 461-462
    November 4, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Atlanta
    133.930
    Washington
    126.702
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Atlanta
    by 7
    38
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Washington
    by 2
    47
    Dunkel Pick:
    Atlanta
    (+2); Under

    Chicago @ Buffalo


    Game 463-464
    November 4, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Chicago
    131.527
    Buffalo
    125.827
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Chicago
    by 5 1/2
    48
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Chicago
    by 10
    37
    Dunkel Pick:
    Buffalo
    (+10); Over

    Houston @ Denver


    Game 465-466
    November 4, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Houston
    128.984
    Denver
    136.937
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Denver
    by 8
    37
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Denver
    by 1
    46 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Denver
    (-1); Under

    LA Chargers @ Seattle


    Game 467-468
    November 4, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Chargers
    130.550
    Seattle
    141.752
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Seattle
    by 11
    54
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Seattle
    by 1 1/2
    47 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Seattle
    (-1 1/2); Over

    LA Rams @ New Orleans


    Game 469-470
    November 4, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Rams
    143.008
    New Orleans
    135.705
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Rams
    by 7 1/2
    53
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New Orleans
    by 2
    60
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Rams
    (+2); Under

    Green Bay @ New England


    Game 471-472
    November 4, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Green Bay
    135.813
    New England
    134.435
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Green Bay
    by 1 1/2
    53
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New England
    by 6
    57
    Dunkel Pick:
    Green Bay
    (+6); Under


    Monday, November 5

    Tennessee @ Dalla
    s

    Game 474-474
    November 5, 2018 @ 8:15 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Tennessee
    124.951
    Dallas
    136.869
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Dallas
    by 12
    44
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Dallas
    by 6 1/2
    40 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Dallas
    (-6 1/2); Over
    Last edited by Udog; 10-31-2018 at 10:54 AM.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    73,864
    Credits
    191,042

    Default

    NFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 9



    Thursday
    Raiders (1-6) @ 49ers (1-7)
    — Not much to pick from here; Oakland lost its last three games, all by 14+ points; their opponents converted 25-39 third down plays (64.1%) in those games. Raiders are 0-3 on road, losing by 1-8-16- they were outscored 112-41 in second half of their six losses. Oakland is 2-7-1 in its last 10 games as road underdogs. 49ers lost their last six games; they’re -11 in turnovers in last five. Since 2014, SF is 3-10 as home favorites. Niners won three of last four meetings; Oakland lost 34-20/17-9 in last two visits here. AFC West teams are 11-8-1 vs spread outside the division; NFC West teams are 8-8-1. Over is 5-2 in 49ers’ last seven games.

    Sunday
    Lions (3-4) @ Vikings (4-3-1)
    — Minnesota is 9-0 vs spread (8-1 SU) in its last nine pre-bye games. Lions allowed 26+ points in their four losses, 23 or less in their three wins; Detroit is 3-0 vs spread on road this year (2-0 as AU), 1-2 SU, with losses by total of five points. Minnesota won three of its last four games; under Zimmer, they’re 20-7 as home favorites, 2-2 this year. Vikings allowed 21 or less people in its four wins, 27+ in the other four games; they ran ball for 100+ yards in only one of their last seven games. Lions are 8-6 in last 14 series games; they won three of last four visits to the Twin Cities. Over is 5-2 in Detroit games this year; under is 3-1 in Viking home games.

    Chiefs (7-1) @ Browns (2-5-1)
    — Williams is new HC for Browns; Kitchens is new OC after team fired HC/OC Monday; KC is tough opponent for them to break in against. Chiefs won/covered seven of eight games; they’re 3-1 on road- their last three road games were all decided by 5 or fewer points. KC is 9-3 in last dozen games as road favorites. Browns lost last three games, giving up 32.3 ppg; they’re 6-15-1 in last 22 games as home dogs, albeit 2-1 this year. KC won three of last four series games, winning by 2-6-4 points; they lost last visit here 30-7 in ’12. Browns’ GM Dorsey came to Cleveland from the Chiefs. Under is 3-1 in Cleveland home games, 4-1 in Chiefs’ last five games.

    Steelers (4-2-1) @ Ravens (4-4)
    — Ravens won first meeting 26-14 (+3) in Week 4 at Heinz Field; they last swept Pitt in 2015. Baltimore outgained Pitt 451-284, blanked Steelers 12-0 in 2nd half. Ravens are 7-4 in last 11 series games; Steelers lost four of their last five visits here. Nine of last 15 series games were decided by 4 or fewer points. Ravens are 1-3 since that first meeting; they’re 0-3 when allowing more than 14 points. Steelers won last three games, scoring 41-28-33 points (12 TD’s on last 29 drives); Pitt is 2-0-1 on road- they’re 11-6-1 in last 18 games as road underdogs. Under is 5-1 in last six Baltimore games, 2-4 in last six Steeler games. Ravens are 2-4 SU (1-5 vs spread) in last six pre-bye games.

    Buccaneers (3-4) @ Panthers (5-2)
    — Fitzpatrick gets nod at QB for Bucs after he rallied them back from down 34-16 to tie game in Cincy Sunday; Bucs were 2-1 when he started in Weeks 1-3. Under Koetter, Tampa is 9-7-1 as road underdogs, 2-2 this year- average total in their road games is 70. Panthers won four of last five games, are 4-0 at home- they’re 7-9 in last 16 games as home favorites, 2-1 this year. Carolina won eight of last ten series games, including four of last five games played here, with wins by 21-2-28-3 points. Over is 6-1 in Tampa games, 4-2 in last six Carolina tilts. In last two games, Panthers converted 11-23 on third down (47.8%), after converting 22-62 (35.5%) in first five games.

    Jets (3-5) @ Dolphins (4-4)
    — Miami won first meeting 20-12 (+2.5) in Week 2, but they haven’t swept Jets since ’09. Two of Miami’s three TD drives in Week 2 were less than 50 yards. Jets won four of last five visits to South Beach, but are 1-6-1 vs spread in last eight games on natural grass- they lost last three road games, scoring 4 TD’s in last 32 road drives. Gang Green scored 34+ points in its three wins, 17 or less in their losses. Miami lost four of last five games, giving up 32-42 points last two weeks; in 3 of their last 4 games, Fish allowed 22+ points in second half. Miami doesn’t have a takeaway in its last two games, after having 15 in its first six games. Over is 4-1 in Jets’ last five games, 3-0 in Miami’s last three.

    Falcons (3-4) @ Redskins (5-2)
    — Atlanta plays six of its last nine games on road; they’re 0-2 outdoors, losing 18-12 in Philly, 41-17 in Pitt, are 1-8 vs spread in last nine road games- they’re 32 for last 55 on third down, and are 3-1 when allowing less than 30 points. Redskins won their last three games, with 7 takeaways (+6); they’re 5-2 in last seven games as home favorites. Washington ran ball for 130+ yards in all five of its wins, 65-39 in its losses; Atlanta held 2 of 7 opponents under 100 YR. Atlanta won last five series games, winning last three visits here, by 7-10-7 points; last series games was in ’15. Last three Redskin games stayed under total; over is 5-1 in last six Atlanta games.

    Bears (4-3) @ Bills (2-5)
    — Buffalo played its hearts out Monday night but lost 25-6; need a QB to win NFL games. In their last five games, Bills scored two TD’s on 53 drives, with 14 turnovers (-6). In four of their six losses, Buffalo didn’t score a TD- they were outscored 43-3 in first half of last three games. Chicago is 1-2 on road; games were decided by total of six points- since ’14, they’re 0-3 as road favorites, 0-2 this year. Bears are 6-12 vs spread in last 18 true road games. Chicago is 3-2 vs spread as a favorite this year. Teams split last four series games, with both Bills’ wins in OT; this is Bears’ first visit to Orchard Park since ’02 (they met in Toronto in ’10). Over is 3-1 in last four Chicago games; last six Buffalo games stayed under.

    Texans (5-3) @ Broncos (3-5)
    — Houston won its last five games after an 0-3 start; Texans ran ball for 141-188 yards in its last two games- hopefully banged-up QB Watson won’t have to take bus to Denver, like he did for last road game. Broncos lost five of last six games after a 2-0 start; they’re 2-4-2 in last eight games as home favorites. Denver won three of four series games, winning three of four series games played here; Broncos won 37-13/27-9 in last two meetings. Under is 3-1 in last four Houston games, 5-2 in last seven Denver games. AFC South teams are 9-12 vs spread outside their division; AFC West teams are 7-1-1 as non-divisional favorites. Denver won five of its last six pre-bye games (4-2 vs spread).

    Chargers (5-2) @ Seahawks (4-3)
    — Seattle ran ball for 155-176 yards in winning their last two games- they’re 4-1 in last five games after an 0-2 start. In their last three games, Seahawks are 22-37 on 3rd down, after going 0-10 in Week 4 at Arizona. Seattle is 1-7 vs spread in its last nine games as home favorites. Chargers won their last four games, averaged 9.2+ yardss/pass attempt in each of their last three games. LA is 3-0 outside LA, winning 31-20 at Buffalo in their only game on artificial turf. Seattle won six of last eight meetings, three of last four played here; these teams used to be AFC West rivals. Chargers are 2-5 vs spread in last seven post-bye games. Under is 5-1 in Seattle’s last six games; over is 5-2 in Charger games.

    Rams (8-0) @ Saints (6-1)
    — Under McVay, Rams are 3-2 vs spread as underdogs; they’re 12-1 SU away from home, with only loss at Minnesota LY. LA scored 29 points in every game this year except Denver game, when it was 20 degrees- in last three games, LA’s opponents are just 8-30 on 3rd down. Saints won their last six games, covering last five; they held last six foes under 100 YR, and haven’t lost field position battle yet this year. Average total in Saints’ three home games this year: 63. Home side won last five series games; Rams lost 31-13/49-21 in last two visits here. Under is 3-1 in Saints’ last four games, 3-0 in Rams’ last three. This game has good shot at deciding #1 seed in NFC playoffs.

    Packers (3-3-1) @ Patriots (5-2)
    — Green Bay blitzed Goff a lot LW and held Rams without score on their first five drives; they’re 0-3 on road, allowing 31-31-29 points (11 TD’s on 34 drives)- they’re 6-4 in last 10 games as road underdogs, 1-0 this year. 4 of 7 Packer games this year were decided by 3 or fewer points. Short week for Patriots after vanilla effort in Buffalo Monday; NE won last five games, is 4-0 at home (3-1 as HF)- they’re 25-12-3 vs spread in last 40 games as a home favorite. Teams split ten games overall; Packers are 2-4 in Foxboro, losing 31-27 in last visit here, in ’10. Over is 4-2 in last six Packer games, 3-1 in last four Patriot games. In last two games, NE scored three TD’s on special teams/defense.

    Monday
    Titans (3-4) @ Cowboys (3-4)
    — Cowboys fired their OL coach during bye week, would expect to see them try and run ball more here. Dallas is 3-0 at home, 0-4 on road; 3 of their last 4 games were decided by 3 or fewer points. Cowboys are 7-6 in last 13 games as home favorites, 1-1 this year. Titans lost last three games after a 3-1 start; five of their last six games were decided by 3 or fewer points- they’re 10-24-1 vs spread in last 35 true road games, 8-17 in last 25 games as a road underdog. Dallas won three of last four series games; Oilers/Titans are 4-3 in their visits here. Under is 5-2 in Dallas games, 5-1 in last six Titan tilts. Thought o lay 6.5 points to a team that hasn’t played a game this season that was decided by more than seven points.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-31-2018 at 01:59 AM.

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    THE 2018 NFL SEASON IS UNLIKE ANY OTHER...

    ��Ave 48.2 total points per game (all-time high)
    ��Teams ave 252.5 passing yards (all-time high)
    ��5.7 ave yards per offensive play (all-time high)

    ��Over/Under record on the season: 60-60-1 O/U (50%)
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-31-2018 at 02:02 AM.

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    BROWNS AXE JACKSON, HALEY

    The Cleveland Browns got the Monday NFL news cycle going by first firing head coach Hue Jackson and following that up by axing offensive coordinator Todd Haley just a short while later. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams takes over as interim head coach moving forward while running backs coach Freddie Kitchens takes over as offensive coordinator.

    Williams is infamous for his role in New Orleans’ “Bountygate” scandal and is a defensive-minded coach so we can only assume (and hope) that he stays away from the offense. Kitchens is a former Alabama QB who coached under Ken Whisenhunt and Bruce Arians in Arizona from 2007-17. He has never been a coordinator at any level and has called plays in just one game — the fourth game of this past preseason. Detroit’s starters didn't play in that game, but Baker Mayfield started, and the Browns offense looked great, putting up 35 points, 424 offensive yards and 22 first downs.

    We’re going to take a wait-and-see approach with the Browns this week as they face the Chiefs (K.C. -8, O/U 51.5), especially with Kitchens being such an unknown factor. But the fact is that Hue Jackson was 3-36-1 SU and 14-26 ATS in his career with the Browns. Things can only go up from here...right?


    FITZMAGIC IS BACK!

    The Tampa Bay Buccaneers made things official on Monday by confirming that Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the team’s starting quarterback moving forward. It’s a move that was expected after Fitzpatrick replaced a terrible Jameis Winston in the third quarter and rallied the Bucs from an 18-point deficit, only to watch the Bengals win it on a field goal as time expired. It’s also a franchise-altering move as Tampa Bay owes Winston no guaranteed money after this season. It’s quite possibly the end of the Jameis Winston era in Tampa Bay.

    Fitzpatrick was nothing short of awesome in rallying the Bucs on Sunday, going 11 of 15 for 194 yards and two touchdowns, including a 72-yard touchdown to Mike Evans which was his league-leading fifth touchdown pass of 50 yards or more this season. The Bucs are in a tough spot this week as they play their fourth road contest in five games as a touchdown underdog at Carolina, but we’re going to back Fitzmagic to do what he does best and take the Over on his longest completed pass.


    JONES TO MISS A FEW

    In sticking with Tampa Bay, running back Ronald Jones is expected to miss multiple weeks with a hamstring injury. This clears things up a bit in the crowded Buccaneers backfield as Peyton Barber should handle the early-down work while Jacquizz Rodgers gets the passing downs.

    Barber went for 85 yards and a touchdown on 19 touches against Cincy last week in what was his best game of the season. Don’t expect another big game in Week 9, however, as Barber tries to find gaps against the Panthers and their sixth-ranked unit in rush defense DVOA. Carolina has held opposing backs to under 50 yards in three of its last four games and that should happen again this week in a game where running doesn’t look to be a part of the game script for Tampa Bay as a big road underdog and a high total of 54. We lean to the Under on Barber’s rushing yards total.


    KUPP COMING BACK?

    Rams coach Sean McVay said on Monday that there’s a “good chance” that receiver Cooper Kupp returns on Sunday at New Orleans for a game that opened with a total of 59 and has already been bumped up to 60! Kupp has missed the last two and a half games after getting hurt early in the Week 6 win at Denver. The Rams have been able to win without Kupp, but Jared Goff has clearly missed him and has posted three of his weaker games of the season without him:

    Week 6: 14 of 28, 201 yards
    Week 7: 18 of 24, 202 yards
    Week 7: 18 of 24, 202 yards
    Week 8: 19 of 35, 295 yards

    Prior to Kupp’s injury, Goff was averaging 345.4 yards per game. Sunday’s showdown is a great spot for Goff as he goes against the league’s 30th-ranked defense in pass defense DVOA but second-ranked rush defense using the same metric. In other words, the Saints’ rush defense is elite, and their pass defense is far from it. We’ll be looking to take the Over on Goff’s passing yards total on Sunday, especially if Kupp is cleared.


    THOMPSON HURTING

    Washington running back Chris Thompson is back on the injury report with a rib injury that he suffered in Sunday’s win over the Giants. Thompson was playing his first game since Week 5 and managed just five touches on 26 snaps (38 percent). Reports out of Washington say that his availability for Week 9 will depend on his ability to tolerate the pain.

    Regardless of whether Thompson suits up, it looks like Washington’s backfield has become all Adrian Peterson. Over the past three weeks, the ageless wonder is averaging 22.3 carries for 115 yards. This Sunday, Washington hosts the Falcons in what should be a great spot for Peterson against the 31st-ranked rush defense in DVOA. Washington will also be looking to control the clock — something they do better than any team except Philadelphia — as to keep Matt Ryan and the explosive Falcons offense off the field. We like Peterson to have another big game and we’re backing the Over for his rushing total.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-31-2018 at 02:02 AM.

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    ⚠️Trade Alert⚠️

    Demaryius Thomas has been traded from the Denver Broncos to the Houston Texans for a 4th round pick and a swap of 7th round pics.
    Texans current week 9 point spread: -2.5
    Texans current week 9 O/U: 46
    Texans current odds to win Superbowl LIII: 25/1
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-31-2018 at 02:03 AM.

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    Close Calls - Week 8
    Joe Nelson

    Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread and total in the fourth quarter in Week 8 of the NFL regular season to close October.

    Almost every game made the list in an exciting Week 8 with the spread or total results still in question late across the league.

    Houston Texas (-7) 42, Miami Dolphins 23 (45):
    Houston led by four at the half and extended the lead to 11 points in the third quarter. Miami hit a field goal in the final minute of the third to get within eight with a spread that was at -7 or -7 for most. Miami tried an on-side kick and it didn’t work out, handing Houston great field position and two plays later Deshaun Watson connected with DeAndre Hopkins for a 49-yard score. Miami answered but only with a field goal and Houston added another fourth quarter touchdown to pull away and seal a five-game winning streak.

    Philadelphia Eagles (-3) 24, Jacksonville Jaguars 18 (44):
    In London the Eagles delivered a 95-yard touchdown drive early in the third quarter to lead by 11 but Jacksonville closed to within five points late in the third quarter, opting to go for two and coming up short in a critical play relative to the spread that briefly hit -3 before settling back at -3. A Josh Lambo field goal early in the fourth made the margin just two points, enough for the underdog Jaguars to cover. Philadelphia responded with a six-play touchdown drive to lead by nine with about 10 minutes remaining. Everyone involved on the spread or total watched with great interest as Jacksonville reached 1st-and-goal with about seven minutes remaining. The Jaguars didn’t get much closer however and settled for a 24-yard field goal that kept the Eagles past the favorite spread and left the total ‘under’. Jacksonville nearly got the big break it needed with an apparent fumble but on review Josh Adams was ruled down before the ball popped out. The Eagles still had to punt a few plays later but after converting one 4th-and-short play, the Jaguars fell incomplete on a 4th-and-2 throw near midfield as the Eagles and the ‘under’ held on.

    Pittsburgh Steelers (-8) 33, Cleveland Browns 18 (47):
    The Steelers led just 16-12 late in the third quarter as underdog and ‘under’ tickets were in a promising spot. James Conner added a late third quarter touchdown run to put the Steelers up by 11 and the Browns punted on its next three possessions, netting +1 yard over 10 plays while the Steelers added 10 more points. The total scoring was at 45 just ahead of the two-minute warning as Cleveland got the ball back. The Browns reached the Pittsburgh 24-yard-line with very little time left and on 4th down Baker Mayfield hit Seth DeValve for a touchdown at the six second mark to push the total ‘over’, in what turned out to be the final offensive series for coaches Hue Jackson and Todd Haley.

    Kansas City Chiefs (-8) 30, Denver Broncos 23 (53):
    The Chiefs led by just two at halftime 16-14 with a missed extra point in the second quarter on one of two touchdowns these teams had in the final minute before halftime to greatly change the total scoring pace. In the third Kansas City took control with two scores to go up 30-14 but Denver would score on the first play of the fourth quarter to trail by 10. The Broncos opted to go for two but failed to leave the margin right on the common number of +10, though the favorite spread fell Sunday morning. The Chiefs threw an interception a few plays later to give Denver a serious comeback shot but the Broncos had turnovers on their next two possessions. Getting the ball back with four minutes to go Denver added a field goal to ensure the underdog cover, though it wasn’t quite enough to clear the total.

    Chicago Bears (-8) 24, New York Jets 10 (42):
    The Bears led just 7-3 at the half as the ‘under’ was the clear play in autumn conditions in Chicago. Halfway through the third quarter Chicago went up 14-3 and then early in the fourth added a field goal after a marginal punt left the Bears at midfield. The underdog Jets answered with their best drive of the day and suddenly were within the spread trailing 17-10. The Bears didn’t face a 3rd down on an 8-play, 79-yard touchdown drive to get back in front with seven minutes to go and a final threat for the Jets ended at midfield.

    Seattle Seahawks (+3) 28, Detroit Lions 14 (48):
    Seattle had a big second quarter to lead 21-7 for a hot scoring pace but neither team added points in the third quarter to put the ‘under’ back in good shape. After getting stuffed at the goal line in the third quarter, Seattle ensured the underdog win with an early fourth quarter touchdown to put the scoring at 35 in a game that wound up with no field goals. Detroit gave itself a shot getting back within 14 and the ‘over’ was just one touchdown short of hitting with still 10 minutes to play. The Lions crossed midfield halfway through the final frame but Matthew Stafford fumbled on a sack. Detroit would reach the 4-yard-line with a new set of downs on its next possession but Stafford was picked off in the end zone to save the ‘under’.

    Cincinnati Bengals (-3) 37, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34 (55):
    The Bengals led 27-6 in this game just before halftime but the Buccaneers hit a long field goal right before the half and then added an early third quarter touchdown to climb within 11. A pick-6 that got Jameis Winston out of the game put the Bengals up 34-16 with the ‘over’ needing just five more points in the final frame. That total was decided quickly with the Buccaneers adding 10 points in the first five minutes of the fourth quarter, sitting within a single score. Both teams punted with the game now tight and Cincinnati opted to punt on its next possession after a sack put the Bengals out of reasonable field goal range. Ryan Fitzpatrick led the Buccaneers down the field but faced 4th-and-3 at the 18-yard-line with a stop able to seal the win for the Bengals. Fitzpatrick hit O.J. Howard for the touchdown and then the Buccaneers also converted for two and the tie. Andy Dalton still had a minute remaining and the Bengals converted a big third down and A.J. Green did the heavy lifting to get the Bengals in place for a 44-yard field goal that won the game, but left those on the Bengals just shy of the spread.

    Indianapolis Colts (-3) 42, Oakland Raiders 28 (51):
    The Raiders led 28-21 into the fourth quarter as they have done several times this season despite only one win. Indianapolis tied the game with about 11 minutes remaining and forced a punt on defense. It took the Colts only six plays to score again, going in front 35-28 and the Raiders fumbled on first down after getting the ball back. Indianapolis added a short-field score to build the misleading 42-28 final margin.

    Arizona Cardinals (+3) 18, San Francisco 49ers 15 (40):
    This battle of one-win division rivals saw San Francisco go in front 5-3 at halftime and then 12-3 through three quarters. Early in the fourth the 49ers had a chance to go up by 16 but wound up settling for a 20-yard field goal to lead by 12. Despite limited production from the offense all day Josh Rosen led a touchdown drive in six plays to get the Cardinals back in the game, down by five. Arizona forced a punt and had the ball back with seven minutes to go but wound up fumbling near midfield. San Francisco couldn’t put the game away, needing to punt and Rosen led a very effective two-minute drill, going 73 yards in 12 plays to put the Cardinals in front, succeeding on the two-point conversion for a three-point lead. Overtime would have put the ‘over’ back in play but the 49ers ran out of time just across midfield and never got a tying field goal attempt off.

    Los Angeles Rams (-7) 29, Green Bay Packers 27 (57):
    This highly anticipated NFC clash lived up to the billing with the Packers giving the undefeated Rams all they could handle early. A 10-0 lead slipped to just 10-8 as the Rams got a safety and a touchdown in the final three minutes before halftime. Los Angeles took over in the second half with consecutive touchdowns to lead 23-13 but Green Bay got back within three in the final seconds of the third quarter. The Rams settled for an early fourth quarter field goal which allowed the Packers to go in front 27-26 after a 40-yard touchdown pass. Both teams punted on the next possessions but a weak 25-yard effort set the Rams up in great field position with about five minutes to go. A red zone holding penalty forced Los Angeles to settle for the field goal just after the two-minute warning, leading by two with the scoring at 56, right even with the early week total that eventually climbed to 57. Ty Montgomery opted to take the kickoff out of the end zone and disaster struck for the Packers with a fumble as Aaron Rodgers didn’t get back on the field with a chance to win the game. Facing 3rd-and-10 the Rams would have had to kick a field goal if they were stopped with just over a minute on the clock but Todd Gurley found the corner and had a clear path to the end zone. In a play that will be remembered for a long time, he wisely stayed in bounds and kneeled at the 4-yard-line to effectively end the game, as a spread and total result flipping touchdown was kept off the board.

    New England Patriots (-13) 25, Buffalo Bills 6 (44):
    The first three quarters of the Monday night game featured both teams moving the ball effectively but a combined six field goals kept the scoring low with New England well short of the heavy road favorite spread with a 12-6 edge. Getting the ball early in the fourth the Patriots finally completed a drive with a 12-play, 85-yard scoring drive to lead 18-6, with Brady’s two-point conversion throw intercepted. Derek Anderson almost had a touchdown throw but Jason Croom was ruled on out of bounds on review and then two plays later Devin McCourty took an interception 84 yards for a Patriots touchdown at the six-minute mark, putting New England past the heavy favorite spread. A touchdown would have still earned the cover for the Bills but Buffalo stalled on the New England 32-yard-line with about three minutes remaining and then in the final minute with Nathan Peterman in the game for an injured Anderson, the Bills were stopped on downs around the 34-yard-line.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-31-2018 at 02:04 AM.

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    Tech Trends - Week 9
    Bruce Marshall

    Thursday, Nov. 1

    OAKLAND at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX/NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)

    Gruden 2-5 vs. line TY, Raiders 4-14-3 vs. points since early 2016. Niners however 0-3 vs. line at Levi’s TY.
    Tech Edge: Slight to 49ers, based on team trends.



    Sunday, Nov. 4

    DETROIT at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Detroit has covered 3 of last 4 meetings and “over” 11-5 since mid 2016.
    Tech Edge: Slight to “over” and Lions, based on “totals” and team trends.


    KANSAS CITY at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Andy Reid 11-1 vs. line last 12 in reg season.
    Tech Edge: Chiefs, based on team trends.


    PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Ravens have covered 3 of last 4 at home vs. Steel and 6-2-1 vs. spread last nine in series. Steel 2-0 as short-priced dog TY. Tomlin “over” 7-2 since late 2017.
    Tech Edge: Slight to “over” and Ravens, based on “totals” and series trends.


    TAMPA BAY at CAROLINA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Bucs “over” 7-1 since late 2017. Bucs have covered 3 of last 4 vs. Cam at Charlotte, however, and “unders” 7-2 last nine meetings.
    Tech Edge: "Over" and slight to Bucs, based on “totals” and team trends.


    N.Y. JETS at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Dolphins 1-4 SU and vs. line since 3-0 break from gate that included a win at Jets. J-Men, however, are 5-0-2 vs. line last seven at Miami.
    Tech Edge: Jets, based on series trends.


    ATLANTA at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Jay Gruden “over” trend has been fading for a while now, he’s actually “under” 8-2 last nine since late 2017. Skins, however, are 6-1 vs. spread last 7 at FedEx. Falcs have only played twice and road TY and have failed to cover either. Atlanta 5-2 “over” TY.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Skins, based on team trends.


    CHICAGO at BUFFALO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Bills 2-6 vs. line TY, “under” 8-2 last ten since late 2017.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Bears and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


    HOUSTON at DENVER (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)

    Texans have won last five SU though just 3-2 vs. line in those. Still improvement on 8 straight Ls previous. Denver has covered last three TY but Vance Joseph on 2-15-2 spread skid previous.
    Tech Edge: Texans, based on team trends.


    L.A. CHARGERS at SEATTLE (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)

    Bolts have won last 4 SU but only covers in 2 of those. Bolts 5-2 “over” TY after closing 2017 on 10-1 “under” run. Pete Carroll has only played two home games TY and has covered them both. Hawks were only 1-5 vs. line last 6 at home LY.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Chargers, based on team trends.


    L.A. RAMS at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

    Saints have covered last five and won last six SU TY, Rams only 1-3-1 vs. spread last five, and surprisingly just 4-6-1 vs. line last 11 on board since late LY. Rams were “over” 7-1 as visitor LY, Saints “over” 6-2 last 8 at home.
    Tech Edge: Saints and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


    GREEN BAY at NEW ENGLAND (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)

    Pack “over” 12-4 last 16 since mid 2017, also covered last 2 two meetings vs. Belichick in 2010 & ‘14. Pack 2-1 as dog TY.
    Tech Edge: “Over” and Packers, based on “totals” and team trends.




    Monday, Nov. 5

    TENNESSEE at DALLAS (ESPN, 8:25 p.m. ET)

    Dallas 3-0 SU at home TY (2-1 vs. line), Cowboys also “under” 9-2 last 11 since late 2017. Titans 4-1 as dog for Vrabel, and “under” 9-4 since late 2017.
    Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-31-2018 at 02:04 AM.

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    PHILLY FEELIN’ GOLDEN

    The Philadelphia Eagles added another weapon to their offense by grabbing receiver Golden Tate from the Detroit Lions for a third-round pick. The Eagles are on a bye, so we’ll dive into how this affects their offense next week, but for this week it’s all about Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones, who should absorb most of Tate’s 9.7 targets per game.

    Golladay is a speedster who is averaging 10.4 yards per target so far in his career and he’ll likely get most of the hype this week. But don’t sleep on Jones who already leads the Lions in air yards, targets in the end zone, and targets inside the 10-yard line. Jones is coming off his best game of the season where he posted a line of 7-117-2, compared to just 1-12-0 for Golladay. Both are trending way up for the rest of the season but for this week we like Jones to grab a touchdown at any time against Minnesota.


    TEXANS NAB THOMAS

    The Houston Texans helped ease the pain of Will Fuller’s season-ending injury by getting Demaryius Thomas in exchange for basically a fourth-round pick (the teams also swapped seventh-rounders). Thomas is 30 years old and, frankly, is playing like an aging receiver this season with 4.5 catches and 50.3 receiving yards per game. But let’s face it, going from Case Keenum (not very good) to Deshaun Watson (quite good) is a massive upgrade.

    Interestingly, the Texans face the Broncos on Sunday in Denver in a game where Houston’s Keke Coutee (hamstring) is questionable. Regardless of whether Coutee plays, Sunday is going to be a tough matchup for all of Houston’s passing offense against a Broncos defense that ranks second in pass defense DVOA. In general. we don’t like the idea of backing an offensive player on a new team and the matchup is just icing on the cake — take the Under on Thomas’ receiving yards total.


    MONTGOMERY SENT PACKING

    On Sunday, Ty Montgomery was told to take a touchback on a late kickoff return. Instead, he decided to take the ball out and wound up fumbling, costing Aaron Rodgers a chance at a comeback against the Rams. On Tuesday, he was traded to Baltimore for a seventh-round pick. Coincidence? I think not. In Montgomery, the Ravens get a versatile pass-catching back that will further crowd a backfield that includes Alex Collins and Buck Allen. But the real winner of this trade is Aaron Jones.

    It was already trending in this direction, but Jones is now the clear No. 1 option in Green Bay. Jones had season-highs in snaps (32) and touches (14) last week in L.A. and turned them into 86 yards and a touchdown. Those numbers are only going to get bigger with Montgomery gone and Jamaal Williams simply not producing. Jones is in a decent spot on Sunday Night Football against a New England defense that is giving up 147.8 yards to opposing backfields so far this season and the game total of 56.5 also plays in his favor. We’re going to back the Over on Jones’ combined rushing and receiving yards total.


    BACK TO PETERMAN

    Derek Anderson suffered a concussion late in the fourth quarter on Monday night and has already been ruled out of Week 9. Josh Allen is still hurt. Yes, this means that Nathan “Pick Six” Peterman will be the Buffalo Bills’ starting quarterback on Sunday as they host the Chicago Bears. The line opened at Chicago -8.5 and ticked up to -9 when the announcement was made.

    Don’t try to talk yourself into betting on the Bills: Peterman is one of the worst quarterbacks we’ve seen in recent history. He has attempted 81 career passes and has thrown nine interceptions. He has appeared in six NFL games but has never managed to last more than two consecutive quarters.

    Need reasons other than Peterman to fade the Bills? They haven’t scored a touchdown since the fourth quarter of Week 6. They don’t have another QB on their roster (yet); the closest thing is WR Terrelle Pryor, who played QB at Ohio State. Oh, and the Bills are playing a Chicago defense that leads the league in takeaways. There’s only one way to bet this game for now and that’s by taking the Bears -9 before the line gets even bigger. And when Buffalo’s team total market gets released later in the week, take the Under on that as well.


    BEATHARD NOT A SURE THING FOR TNF

    A piece of news that flew under the radar on trade deadline day was San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan telling the media that quarterback C.J. Beathard isn’t a sure bet to start on Thursday night when the Niners host the Raiders. Beathard hurt his wrist and is having trouble holding the football. Common thinking would be that the 49ers are in serious trouble if Beathard can’t go because they would be forced to start undrafted rookie Nick Mullens. But really, how much worse can Mullens be? Beathard is 0-5 since Jimmy Garoppolo went down and is killing his team with negative plays: he has thrown seven interceptions, fumbled five times (lost three), and has taken 18 sacks.

    We don’t know what to expect from Mullens if he gets the call, but we do know he was great at Southern Mississippi State, throwing for almost 12,000 yards and 87 touchdowns as a four-year starter. We also know he’s in a great spot at home on Thursday against a defense that is second-worst in pass defense DVOA. The Niners are currently a three-point favorite and we predict that the line will shrink if Beathard is ruled out. If that happens, it’d be a great time to jump on San Francisco as it’s very possible that Mullens is as good, or better than Beathard.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-01-2018 at 12:09 PM.

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    ALL ABOUT KITTLE

    Week 9 is here and while it’s always exciting to get the NFL week started, Thursday Night Football has seen better matchups. Regardless, we kick things off with a nice prop (or two) as Oakland visits San Francisco and surprising tight end George Kittle. The second-year man out of Iowa has turned heads this season and has thrown himself into the conversation as one of the top tight ends in football.

    Kittle’s average of 73 receiving yards per game is third in the NFL amongst tight ends (behind Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce) and his 15.8 yards is tops at the position. He’s also receiving 23.9 percent of the Niners’ receptions, the second-highest rate in the league for tight ends. Kittle has a nice rapport with C.J. Beathard and has averaged exactly five catches per game for 78.6 yards since his former Hawkeyes teammate took over — and Beathard is expected to play on TNF despite his wrist injury. Last week, the Raiders were torched for 10 catches, 133 yards, and three touchdowns by Indy’s tight ends and we expect Kittle to have a big game tonight. Take the Over 59.5 on his receiving yards total.


    NINERS D BANGED UP

    San Francisco’s defense will be missing a few key players on TNF as middle linebacker Reuben Foster (hamstring) and safeties Jaquiski Tartt (shoulder) and Antone Exum (concussion) have all been ruled out. Cornerback Richard Sherman (calf, heel) is banged up and listed as questionable but is expected to play. This is obviously great news for the Raiders’ offense that is averaging just 13 points per game on the road. The travel distance for this game is minimal, however, and they’re facing a defense that is allowing 10.9 red-zone plays per game, the third-worst mark in the league. We like Oakland’s chances of putting up points tonight.

    The Raiders’ defense is relatively healthy but that doesn’t mean much for a unit that is ranked 29th in total defense DVOA. Oakland is giving up 11 red-zone play per game, the second-worst mark in the league, and is giving up 31.1 points per game, also second-worst in the league. The Niners’ offense isn’t lighting up the league, but they do have an offensive-minded coach in Kyle Shanahan and the last time we saw him in primetime, San Francisco put up 30 points at Lambeau Field. Tonight’s total is set relatively low at 45.5 and we’re taking the Over.


    TANNEHILL STILL OUT

    Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill (shoulder) has been ruled out for Week 9, meaning Brock Osweiler will make his fourth consecutive start. But here’s the thing: It’s not Brocktober anymore. In fact, in the case of Osweiler, you could argue that Brocktober ended last week on Thursday Night Football in the 42-23 loss at Houston.

    Osweiler was fantastic in his surprise start in Week 6 versus Chicago, throwing for 380 yards and three touchdowns (two interceptions) on 28-of-44 passing. In Week 7, he was average, going 22 of 31 for 239 yards and two touchdowns. In Week 8, he was bad, going 21 of 37 for 241 yards and an interception. The Dolphins got down by a lot in Weeks 7 and 8 and Osweiler still put up pedestrian numbers while chasing points. This week, the Dolphins host the Jets and a pass defense that is ranked seventh in DVOA in what should be a tight divisional battle (Miami -3, O/U 45). There won’t be any garbage-time stat padding in this one and we think Osweiler is going to bottom out. Take the Under 240 on his passing yards total.


    ELWAY TALKS UP SUTTON

    Broncos general manager John Elway talked up rookie receiver Courtland Sutton after trading away Demaryius Thomas, saying the rookie has a "chance to get out there and play more and be a bigger part of it because we think he’s ready to go." Sutton has put up decent numbers so far this season as a clear third option while Thomas was on the field, averaging just over two catches per game for 40.5 yards. Sutton now becomes the No. 2 option behind Emmanuel Sanders and has a chance to eat into a lot of Thomas’ seven targets per game.

    On Sunday, the Broncos host the Texans in a game where Denver’s pass catchers have a better matchup than the running backs. Houston is very tough against the run, ranking first in rush defense DVOA, but are average against the pass with a ranking of 14 when using the same metric. Last week, the Texans gave up stat lines of 6-134 and 5-43 to Devante Parker and Danny Amendola, respectively. We like Sutton to have a solid first game as a top-two option on the Broncos and we’re backing the Over on his receiving yards total.


    CROWDED BACKFIELD IN BALTIMORE

    Yesterday, we talked about how Ty Montgomery’s trade out of Green Bay benefited Aaron Jones and today we’ll look at the impact the trade has on the Ravens. Baltimore’s backfield has been difficult to predict all season and now it gets even muddier with Montgomery in the mix. For the most part, and especially over the last few games, Alex Collins has been getting early-down work with Buck Allen subbing in as a passing-down back. Montgomery was used as both this season in Green Bay, averaging 3.7 carries and 2.1 receptions per game.

    Montgomery likely won’t be a huge part of the Ravens’ offense, especially not in his first game this week against the rival Steelers, but he might steal a series or two from Collins in what was already looking like a bad matchup. Collins has been getting almost all the carries of late, with 41 over his last three weeks, but he still hasn’t been able to rush for more than 54 yards in a game over that stretch. This week, he takes on a Steelers defense that has allowed just 66.4 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields. Take the Under on Collins’ rushing yards total.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-01-2018 at 12:10 PM.

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    Teams to Watch - Week 9

    Halloween may be the scariest day on the calendar each year, but given how the NFL season has gone to this point, there are few things more terrifying than trying to come up with some picks for the weekend. The level of parity in the league this season is unparalleled, although there are still a few teams who are excelling, as well as a few who are about as bad as it gets.

    As we do before the start of every week of the NFL season, we are taking a look at a few teams to play and avoid this coming Sunday. Without further ado, let’s get right to the picks with all the odds, props and futures offered by YouWager.eu.

    Chicago Bears (-500) at Buffalo Bills (+400)

    When you talk about the worst teams in the NFL this season, you cannot have that conversation without talking about the Buffalo Bills. This is a team that does not have a legitimate starting QB and who have had a player retire at half-time earlier this season.

    While the Bills are on a downward spiral, the Chicago Bears are on the way up. They have a solid young QB in Mitch Trubisky, as well as a defense that has been flourishing with the addition of Khalil Mack. The Bears are at the top of a crowded NFC North and can extend that lead with a win over the Bills this weekend. I will definitely be taking time to play the Chicago Bears.

    Pittsburgh Steelers (+130) at Baltimore Ravens (-150)

    Whenever these two teams meet, we are usually always guaranteed some fireworks, which often comes at the expense of a lack of scoring. These two generally get caught up in big-hitting defensive battles with a mistake or a turnover very often flipping the game one way or another. The Steelers got off to a slow start, but they are starting to put things together, winning 3 in a row to take the lead in the division.

    The Ravens are going in the opposite direction, losing 3 of their last 4. While the Ravens are at home for this one and already have a win over Pittsburgh this season, I am just not sold on them. I will be looking to avoid the Baltimore Ravens.

    Houston Texans (+100) at Denver Broncos (-120)

    Outside of the LA Rams, there are few teams in the league who are hotter than the Houston Texans are at the moment. After getting off to an 0-3 start, the Texans have now reeled off 5 straight wins to take control of the AFC South. Despite those wins, the Texans are a team that have made a habit of winning close games, which may explain why they are in as a slight underdog on the road in Denver this weekend.

    The Broncos have some serious issues, though, not the least of which is at the QB position. They have lost 5 of their last 6, which is why I am going to play the Houston Texans.

    Atlanta Falcons (+105) at Washington Redskins (-125)

    The Atlanta Falcons are underperforming in a big way this season, although they have been hit rather hard by the injury bug in the first half. They are on a modest 2-game winning streak right now, but those victories came against a pair of struggling teams, the Buccaneers and the Giants, with neither one being particularly convincing.

    The Falcons are winless on the road and have gone 0-2 ATS in the two other games that they started as an underdog this season. Meanwhile, the Redskins are at 5-2 after reeling off 3 straight wins. All of the signs would appear to be telling me to avoid the Atlanta Falcons.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-01-2018 at 12:11 PM.

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