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Thread: Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 10/25

  1. #1
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    Default Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 10/25

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, October 25

    Good Luck on day #298 of 2018!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

    Interesting trends for Week 8 in the NFL:

    — Steelers are 1-5 in last six games as a divisional home favorite.

    — Eagles are 2-7-1 in last ten games as a favorite.

    — Saints covered five of their last six games.

    — Bengals covered six of their last nine games.

    — Colts covered their last five pre-bye games.

    — Jaguars are 4-19 in last 23 games vs NFC teams.


    **********

    Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…..

    13) Cam Newton’s Sunday in Philadelphia:
    Quarters 1-3: 9-of-17, 68 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, not much of anything
    4th quarter: 16-22, 201 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs— He looked like Dan Fouts

    Once he got hot, the Panthers were unstoppable, but it was like someone flipped the on-switch and he started playing better.

    12) Denver Broncos released backup QB Chad Kelly after he was arrested on trespassing charges Monday night. He was forcibly removed from the players’ Halloween party before he entered another person’s home where he didn’t belong.

    11) There are whispers coming out of Ohio that at this time next year, Urban Meyer could be coaching the Cleveland Browns. We’ll see about that; not sure how Meyer would do dealing with the losing NFL coaches do, much more than college coaches.

    10) College basketball starts November 6; on Opening Night, 52 D-I teams play a non-D-I opponent, which is embarrassing. Last year, D-I teams went 453-11 against non-D-I teams.

    9) Darius Bazley is a young man who signed to play basketball at Syracuse this winter, but he won’t do that or play in the G-League, instead he is going to train on his own— he has signed an endorsement contract with New Balance, which will play him at least $1M.

    Bazley will also intern at the company’s marketing, digital, footwear and apparel departments from January to March. Chances are he will go from April 2018 to July 2019 without playing in a competitive basketball game. Not sure how that is a good idea for his development as a player, but good luck to him.

    8) Raiders supposedly turned down a 2nd round pick from the Eagles for Amari Cooper, before dealing him to the Cowboys Monday; Jon Gruden talked to the team Wednesday about the trade, but that seems kind of late, no? The trade was Monday.

    7) Los Angeles Angels hired former Tiger skipper Brad Ausmus as their next manager.

    6) This is just the third World Series where all four starting pitchers in Games 1-2 were lefty:

    1963 – Koufax vs Ford, Podres vs Downing
    1973 – Matlack vs Holtzman, Koosman vs Blue
    2018 – Kershaw vs Sale, Ryu vs Price

    5) James Harden left Houston’s 100-89 loss in Utah Wednesday with a hamstring issue that he says “isn’t serious). Harden missed seven games LY with a similar injury.

    4) Nets 102, Cavaliers 86— Cleveland coach Tyrone Lue coached in the NBA Finals the last two years, but the Cavs are 0-4 already and Lue might get fired before Christmas. Losing to the Nets by 16 at home isn’t a good sign.

    3) Red Sox 4, Dodgers 2— None of LA’s top four home run hitters have started a game in this WS yet, because they’re all lefty and God forbid a lefty hitter face a lefty pitcher.

    2) Rams signed WR Austin Proehl to the practice squad, which sounds like an obscure note, except if you’re a Ram fan, the Phoehl name is royalty— Austin’s dad Ricky Proehl caught the game-winning TD pass in the 2000 NFC title game the year the Rams won the Super Bowl, and he also caught a TD pass in the Super Bowl two years later.

    1) According to Psychology Living magazine, being sarcastic on a regular basis can add up to three years to your life, which means you’re stuck with me for three more years than you thought you were. Sarcasm is extremely healthy for the mind. Ha!!!

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    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Thursday, October 25


    Cleveland is 0-4 (1-3 vs spread, 1-1 as AU). Over is 3-1 in their games. Detroit won its first three games (over 2-1); they’re 1-1 as home favorites. Home side won seven of last eight Cleveland-Detroit games; Cavaliers are 1-4 vs spread in last five trips to the Motor City. Under is 5-3 in last eight series games.

    First road game for 2-1 Portland (over 3-0) team that lost in OT to the Wizards Monday. Magic split their first four games (under 3-1); they split two home games. Trailblazers won their last three games with Orlando; under is 5-1 in last six series games. Portland won its last two visits here, by 9-7 points.

    Oklahoma City lost its first three games (over 2-1); they lost only home game to the Kings. Boston split its first four games (under 3-1); they split two road games (0-2 vs spread). Thunder won seven of last ten games with Boston, but lost last two; Celtics are 3-0-1 vs spread in their last four visits here. Under is 3-1 in last four series games.

    Denver won/covered its first four games (under 3-1); they won only road game by 9 over the Clippers in this building. Lakers got their first win (1-3) last night (over 4-0); they’re 0-2 at home, allowing 124-143 points (0-2 vs spread). Home side won last six Nugget-Laker games; Denver lost last three series games played here, by 4-18-9 points. Over is 8-2 in last ten series games.




    NBA

    Thursday, October 25


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Portland Trail Blazers
    Portland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    Portland is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 5 games
    Portland is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Portland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 7 games on the road
    Portland is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Orlando
    Portland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Orlando
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Portland's last 6 games when playing Orlando
    Portland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Orlando
    Portland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Orlando
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Orlando
    Orlando Magic
    Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Orlando is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games
    Orlando is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Portland
    Orlando is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Portland
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games when playing Portland
    Orlando is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Portland
    Orlando is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Portland
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing at home against Portland


    Cleveland Cavaliers
    Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games
    Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Cleveland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games on the road
    Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
    Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
    Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
    Cleveland is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Detroit
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
    Detroit Pistons
    Detroit is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games
    Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
    Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
    Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
    Detroit is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Cleveland
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing at home against Cleveland


    Boston Celtics
    Boston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
    Boston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games
    Boston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Boston is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games on the road
    Boston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Oklahoma City
    Boston is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing Oklahoma City
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City
    Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
    Boston is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
    Oklahoma City Thunder
    Oklahoma City is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games
    Oklahoma City is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
    Oklahoma City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Boston
    Oklahoma City is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing Boston
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games when playing Boston
    Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
    Oklahoma City is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Boston
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games when playing at home against Boston


    Denver Nuggets
    Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    Denver is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games
    Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Denver is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games when playing LA Lakers
    Denver is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games when playing LA Lakers
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Denver's last 12 games when playing LA Lakers
    Denver is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
    Denver is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
    Los Angeles Lakers
    LA Lakers is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 5 games
    LA Lakers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    LA Lakers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Lakers's last 6 games at home
    LA Lakers is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games when playing Denver
    LA Lakers is 5-16 SU in its last 21 games when playing Denver
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of LA Lakers's last 12 games when playing Denver
    LA Lakers is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Denver
    LA Lakers is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Denver
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 6 games when playing at home against Denver


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-25-2018 at 11:56 AM.

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    NBA
    Dunkel

    Thursday, October 25



    Cleveland @ Detroit

    Game 701-702
    October 25, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Cleveland
    115.458
    Detroit
    114.129
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Cleveland
    by 1 1/2
    216
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Detroit
    by 8
    221 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Cleveland
    (+8); Under

    Portland @ Orlando


    Game 703-704
    October 25, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Portland
    115.550
    Orlando
    117.259
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Orlando
    by 1 1/2
    230
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Portland
    by 4
    216
    Dunkel Pick:
    Orlando
    (+4); Over

    Boston @ Oklahoma City


    Game 705-706
    October 25, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Boston
    117.964
    Oklahoma City
    118.710
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Oklahoma City
    by 1
    195
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Boston
    by 1
    212 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Oklahoma City
    (+1); Under

    Denver @ LA Lakers


    Game 707-708
    October 25, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Denver
    120.533
    LA Lakers
    122.671
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Lakers
    by 2
    234
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Denver
    by 4
    239
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Lakers
    (+4); Under
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-25-2018 at 11:56 AM.

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    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Thursday, October 25


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CLEVELAND (0 - 4) at DETROIT (3 - 0) - 10/25/2018, 7:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CLEVELAND is 43-63 ATS (-26.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CLEVELAND is 5-3 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
    CLEVELAND is 5-3 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PORTLAND (2 - 1) at ORLANDO (2 - 2) - 10/25/2018, 7:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ORLANDO is 72-93 ATS (-30.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    ORLANDO is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
    ORLANDO is 63-93 ATS (-39.3 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
    ORLANDO is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
    ORLANDO is 25-43 ATS (-22.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PORTLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
    PORTLAND is 3-1 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    BOSTON (2 - 2) at OKLAHOMA CITY (0 - 3) - 10/25/2018, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    BOSTON is 61-40 ATS (+17.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    BOSTON is 58-39 ATS (+15.1 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
    BOSTON is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 37-52 ATS (-20.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 14-25 ATS (-13.5 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BOSTON is 2-1 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 2-2 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DENVER (4 - 0) at LA LAKERS (1 - 3) - 10/25/2018, 10:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA LAKERS are 139-97 ATS (+32.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
    LA LAKERS are 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DENVER is 4-3 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
    DENVER is 4-3 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-25-2018 at 11:57 AM.

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    Inside the Paint - Thursday
    October 25, 2018
    By Chris David


    The 2018 NBA regular season is nine days old and bettors are certainly watching a different game with less dunks and a ridiculous amount of 3-pointers. Through yesterday’s action, 20 of the 30 teams are averaging 30-plus attempts from 3-point land compared to just 10 last season. The number of fouls being called is up as well, from 19.9 to 23.1 per team a game and that certainly has helped the scoring boost.

    The oddsmakers have done a nice job of adjusting their totals and we’ve already started to see the numbers balance out. The ‘over’ was hitting at a 69 percent (27-12) clip through last Sunday but the ‘under’ has posted a 13-10 mark the last three days and that includes a 7-4 record to the low side on Wednesday.

    Even though favorites have gone 42-20 straight up this season, underdogs have gone 32-30 against the spread.

    Thursday’s card has four games on tap, including a nationally televised double-header on TNT.

    Cleveland (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS) at Detroit (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS)

    The post-LeBron James era in Cleveland hasn’t started out well as the Cavaliers have lost their first four games of the season. The latest setback occurred last night as the Cavs dropped a 102-86 decision to the Nets as three-point home favorites.

    Cleveland will now be playing on no rest Thursday and the oddsmakers have the club listed as a seven-point road underdog at Detroit. Most books have pushed the number to Pistons (-8) as of Thursday morning. While the Cavs are winless, the Pistons have started with a perfect 3-0 mark but the three victories came by a combined six points.

    On Tuesday, Detroit captured a 133-132 overtime win over Philadelphia as a one-point underdog. Blake Griffin led the pace for the Pistons with 50 points, which included a game-wining layup and free throw. While the number on the Pistons might seem a tad inflated, they’ve won seven straight games (5-2 ATS) when listed as home favorites going back to last season.

    Cleveland went 3-1 both SU and ATS against Detroit last season but those numbers were with LeBron and should definitely be taken lightly.

    Portland (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) at Orlando (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS)

    After beginning the season with a 2-1 record at the Moda Center, the Trail Blazers (-3) begin a four-game road trip as favorites against Orlando on Thursday. Portland was a solid bet in this role last season, going 12-5 SU and 10-7 ATS when laying points on the road. Total bettors should note that the ‘under’ went 13-4 in those games.

    Orlando will enter this game with confidence after upsetting Boston 93-90 on Monday as an 11-point road underdog. Including this game, the Magic have been listed as an underdog in every matchup this season and they haven’t been able to win back-to-back games yet. Through four games, the defense has carried them in the wins (96.5 PPG) but has been missing in the losses (118 PPG).

    The Trail Blazers swept the Magic last season and that included a 95-88 win as a 4 ½-point road favorite last December in Orlando. The ‘under’ has cashed in five of the last six encounters between the pair.

    I’ve often identified Portland as a bully team and its 25-7 record against teams below .500 certainly helps that status. The Blazers went 18-12 last season versus the East and that includes an 8-7 record on the road. Meanwhile, Orlando was 10-20 vs. the West but seven of the wins came at home.

    Boston (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) at Oklahoma City (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS)

    Oddsmakers sent out winless Oklahoma City as a 1 ½-point road favorite and I thought that line was a tad confusing. The number is now Boston -1 at most betting shops as of this morning.

    The Celtics owned the third best road record (28-13 ATS) in the league last season but they haven’t looked like the same team, despite being healthy this season. Boston was stunned by Orlando 93-90 on Monday as an 11-point home favorite. The offense (99.8 PPG) is ranked last in the league and they can’t buy a shot from 3-point land (31.2%). Fortunately for coach Brad Stevens, the defense is ranked first (98.5 PPG).

    The Thunder were run out of their own building on Sunday as they dropped a 131-120 decision to the Kings as an 11-point home favorite. Russell Westbrook made his debut for OKC and he put up solid numbers (32 points, 12 rebounds, 8 assists) but he did miss six free throws. Similar to Boston, the Thunder have struggled from distance as well and the team is ranked last in shooting (23.9%).

    Boston got the better of OKC last season, winning and covering both meetings. The ‘under’ went 2-0 as the Celtics held the Thunder to 99 and 94 points.

    The total on this game opened 209 and was pushed up to 212 ½, which is the lowest number on the board. The Celtics (3-1) and Thunder (2-1) have both leaned to the ‘under’ so far.

    Tip-off is set for 8:05 p.m. ET and TNT will provide national coverage.

    Denver (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)

    The Nuggets just missed out on the playoffs last season but they’re showing everybody that they should be in the mix again next April. Denver remains unbeaten through four games on the hardwood and at the betting counter.

    Monday’s wire-to-wire 126-112 win over Sacramento helped the club sweep their three-game homestand. While beating the Kings and Suns was expected, a 100-98 victory over the Warriors last Sunday from the Pepsi Center was very impressive.

    Oddsmakers opened Denver as a 3 ½-point road favorite over Los Angeles, who will be looking to win its first home game of the season on Thursday. The Lakers earned their first win of the season last night with a 131-113 victory over the Suns as 5 ½-point road favorites. The ‘over’ connected and the high side is a perfect 4-0 for the Purple and Gold.

    It’s still early in the season but Denver is currently ranked second in scoring defense (99.8 PPG) and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 3-1. While the Nuggets have been strong defensively, the Lakers enter this game with the worst defense (127 PPG) in the league.

    Tonight’s total is hovering between 237 and 238 points. One factor that could have you leaning low is the 3-point shooting percentages for the Lakers (30.2%) and Nuggets (29.8%), ranked 27th and 28th respectively.

    Denver has only played one road game, which occurred at Thursday’s venue. The club defeated the Clippers 107-98 on opening night as 2 ½-point road favorites. The Lakers have gone 0-2 at the Staples Center, dropping decisions to the Rockets and Spurs.

    Different faces on these squads but the recent meetings have watched the ‘over’ cash in eight of the last 10 encounters and the home team has won and covered the last six matchups.

    Brandon Ingram and Rajon Rondo remain ‘out’ for the Lakers due to serving suspensions.

    TNT will provide national coverage of this game at 10:35 p.m. ET
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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