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Thread: NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 8 (Thur. Oct. 25 - Mon. Oct. 29)

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    Default NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 8 (Thur. Oct. 25 - Mon. Oct. 29)



    NFL Trends and Indexes

    Thursday. October 25 - Monday. October 29

    Additional trends and information will be added as available.

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Betting Recap - Week 7
    Joe Williams

    Overall Notes

    National Football League Week 7 Results

    Wager Favorites-Underdogs
    Straight Up 9-4
    Against the Spread 7-6

    Wager Home-Away
    Straight Up 5-8
    Against the Spread 3-10

    Wager Totals (O/U)
    Over-Under 4-9

    National Football League Year-to-Date Results
    Wager Favorites-Underdogs
    Straight Up 68-36-2
    Against the Spread 48-56-2

    Wager Home-Away
    Straight Up 63-41-2
    Against the Spread 53-51-2

    Wager Totals (O/U)
    Over-Under 55-51

    The largest underdogs to win straight up
    Panthers (+5, ML +200) at Eagles, 21-17
    Texans (+3.5, ML +170) at Jaguars, 20-7
    Saints (+2.5, ML +125) at Ravens, 24-23

    The largest favorite to cover
    Rams (-9) at 49ers, 39-10
    Colts (-7) vs. Bills, 37-5
    Chiefs (-6.5) vs. Bengals, 45-10

    Idiot Kickers

    -- Kickers were changing the fortune of betting results all over the National Football League in Week 7. Or, a coach failing to use a kicker in a key point, also was a big sticking point for some.

    In the Dallas Cowboys-Washington Redskins battle, Cowboys PK Brett Maher doink'd one off of the upright that would have sent the game into overtime. Sure, the Redskins could have still won the game in OT, but Cowboys side bettors, elated that Dallas nearly erased a 10-point lead in the final two minutes, had to feel like they lost their wager twice. In addition, while 'under' (40.5) bettors weren't complaining one bit, Maher's errant kick also changed the fortunes of 'over' bettors.

    That was barely a bad beat, however, considering how raw 'over' (49.5) bettors felt in the New Orleans Saints-Baltimore Ravens battle. The Ravens tied it up with :24 remaining in regulation, or so they thought. Ravens PK Justin Tucker, the most accurate kicker in NFL history, misfired on an extra point to do over bettors dirty, as under bettors celebrated everywhere. Side bettors for the Ravens weren't terribly pleased, either, as they could have had a chance in the extra session.

    In the Cleveland Browns-Tampa Bay Buccaneers contest it was a redemption story. Buccaneers PK Chandler Catanzaro misfired on an extra point and a potential game-winning field goal to close regulation, giving Browns side bettors a chance in OT. The points left on the field also cost the Bucs side bettors potentially, as they failed to cover by a half-point when the dust cleared. In addition, who knows if the missed kicks woud have affected the total (52.5) in any way. In the end, Catanzaro redeemed himself with a 59-yard bomb to win it in overtime.

    Oh, And Don't Forget These Gems!

    -- The Chicago Bears were catching two points as short 'dogs at home against the New England Patriots. On a desperation heave at the horn, QB Mitchell Trubisky found WR Kevin White, who climbed the ladder and snared the ball at the 1-yard line. He was Kevin Dyson'd just short of the goal-line, again, making Bears side bettors feel like they lost their wager twice.

    -- And if you were an 'under' (45) bettor in the Minnesota Vikings-New York Jets game...wow. The Vikings were up 27-17 with 5:16 to go in regulation. Instead of pounding it on the ground, the Vikings went to the air and had 34-yard touchdown from QB Kirk Cousins to WR Aldrick Robinson push the total 'over'. PK Dan Bailey added a 43-yard field goal with 3:22 to go just for good measure, as he didn't affect anyone's day negatively.

    -- Last, but certainly not least, the 'over' (56.5) appeared to be in the bag for bettors in the Cincinnati Bengals-Kansas City Chiefs battle on Sunday Night Football. There were 31 points on the board at halftime, and 48 points on the board after three quarters. The Chiefs went ahead 45-10 with 12:50 to go in regulation, and all that was needed was a field goal. With just a few minutes to go, RB Spencer Ware took a swing pass and appeared to be hurtling toward the end zone, but the turf monster reached up and grabbed him, as he lost his footing. Then, on fourth down, head coach Andy Reid elected to go for it and eschew the short field goal, causing 'over' bettors everywhere to swear in unison. But hey, don't blame the Chiefs. They did their part with 45 points. How sorry were the Bengals?

    Total Recall

    -- The lowest total on the board, Dallas-Washington (40.5), apparently was low enough. Of course, we covered this one above. It probably should have gone over. The second-lowest total on the board (42.5) split, as Thursday's Denver Broncos-Arizona Cardinals (42.5) went over and the Houston Texans-Jacksonville Jaguars (42.5) went well under.

    -- The two highest totals on the board, Cleveland-Tampa Bay (52.5) and Cincinnati-Kansas City (56.5), again, probably should have gone over, but...kickers, or a lack thereof.

    -- The 'over' had cashed for the L.A. Chargers in five of their first six outings, but the Tennessee Titans and a long flight to London, as well as a missing key offensive component, sent them to a rare under result. As far as the Saints are concerned, they have alternated overs and unders in each of their six games so far. It looks like an 'over' is coming next Sunday night against the Vikings.

    -- The 'over/under' is 1-1 through the first two primetime games in Week 7, and maybe we should put an asterisk next to the SNF result. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 11-10 (52.3%). The 'under' has cashed in four of the past five battles on Sunday Night Football.

    Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

    In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

    In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

    In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

    Injury Report

    -- Bills RB LeSean McCoy (concussion) suffered a concussion in Sunday's blowout loss against the Colts.

    -- Patriots RB Sony Michel (knee) exited Sunday's game against the Bears early due to a knee ailment.

    Looking Ahead

    -- The Redskins will travel to meet the Giants in Week 8. Washington is a dismal 1-4 ATS over their past five on the road, and 1-6 ATS in the past seven inside the NFC East Division. They're also 1-7 ATS in their past eight following a straight-up win. As far as the Giants, they're just 3-8 ATS across the past 11 at home and 3-9 ATS in their past 12 against NFC foes, pending Monday's result. In this series, the under is 12-3 in the past 15 in New Jersey, while the Redskins are 1-4 ATS in their past five visits against the Giants. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven, while Washington is 3-7 ATS in the past 10 in this series.

    -- The Broncos and Chiefs meet for the second time this season. Kansas City won 27-23 in the Mile High City on a Monday night in Week 4, barely covering as 3 1/2-point favorites as the 'under' (53) cashed. The Broncos are 3-12-1 ATS in their past 16 against divisional foes, and 2-11 ATS in their past 13 on the road. The Chiefs have covered 10 of the past 11, and they're 5-1 ATS in their past six at Arrowhead. While the road team is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 meetings, the Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their past six trips to K.C. The over is 4-1 in the past five at Arrowhead, and 5-1-1 in the past seven meetings in this series.

    -- After a Week 1 tie, the Browns and Steelers will square off in the second meeting of the year in the Steel City. Despite that cover, Cleveland is still just 4-14-1 ATS in their past 19 inside the AFC North. The Steelers are just 4-9 ATS in their past 13 overall, and 1-5 ATS in the past six inside the division. Surprisingly, they're also 0-5 ATS in the past five following a bye. Cleveland is 3-0-1 ATS in the past four meetings, and the 'over' is 11-5-1 in the past 17 meetings in Pittsburgh.

    -- If it seems like the 49ers and Cardinals just met, it wasn't that long ago. Arizona won 28-18 in San Francisco for QB Josh Rosen's first NFL win on Oct. 7, covering as three-point 'dogs. Frisco is 5-2 ATS in their past seven on the road, and 7-3 ATS in their past 10 inside the division. The Cardinals are 3-1-1 ATS in their past five overall. The road team has covered five in a row in this series, and the 49ers are 9-3 ATS in their past 12 trips to the desert.

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    Bettors jump on Saints' opening odds for NFL Week 8 clash vs. Vikings
    Patrick Everson

    With only the Monday night game remaining in NFL Week 7, it’s time to jump ahead to some intriguing matchups in Week 8. We check in on the opening lines and early action for four such contests, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at the Westgate.

    New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)

    This is a rematch of an NFC divisional playoff game from last season, won by Minnesota on a wild play in the waning seconds. The Vikings (4-2-1 SU and ATS) head into this contest on a three-game win streak (2-0-1 ATS), routing the New York Jets 37-17 as 3.5-point road favorites in Week 7.

    New Orleans got a win by the width of the goal post in Week 7 for its fifth consecutive victory and fourth straight cover. The Saints (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) gave up a last-minute touchdown at Baltimore, but the kick failed as they escaped with a 24-23 victory as 2.5-point underdogs.

    “This looks like the best game of the week, and it’s a rematch of the Minneapolis Miracle game in last season’s playoffs,” Murray said Sunday evening. “There should be a lot of two-way action on this game.”

    The SuperBook saw immediate play on New Orleans, knocking the line down to Minnesota -1.5 Sunday evening.

    Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5)

    Defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia is struggling mightily to find its way this season, and now has to travel to London in an effort to get right. The Eagles (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) blew a 17-0 fourth-quarter lead in Week 7, losing to Carolina 21-17 as 5-point home faves.

    Jacksonville reached the AFC Championship Game last season, but much like Philly is failing to impress this year. The Jaguars (3-4 SU and ATS) were 3.5-point Week 7 home favorites against Houston and mounted very little offense in a 20-7 loss.

    “We opened it Eagles -2.5 and had a respected player bet it right away, so we moved to -3 even money,” Murray said. “Jacksonville is a mess right now on offense.”

    Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams (-8.5)

    Los Angeles is the lone unbeaten team in the NFL, riding its high-octane offense to a 7-0 SU mark (4-3 ATS). The Rams went to San Francisco as 8-point chalk in Week 7, bolted out to a 22-0 lead and won 39-10.

    Green Bay enters this contest off a bye week, after climbing above .500. The Packers (3-2-1 SU, 2-4 ATS) got far more of a game from San Francisco than they expected in Week 6, but pulled out a 33-30 win laying 9 points at home in the Week 6 Monday nighter.

    “The Rams are now 7-0 and rolled to the cover as huge favorite in San Francisco. Green Bay will be coming in off their bye week,” Murray said. “The Packers’ defense made C.J. Beathard look good last Monday. I have to think the Rams will have a lot of success offensively.”

    Los Angeles money took this line up a full point to 9.5 for a few minutes Sunday night, before it ticked back to 9.

    Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-9)

    Kansas City already played and beat Denver on the road in a tightly contested Week 4 Monday nighter, and Andy Reid’s squad continues to prove it’s among the best in the AFC. The Chiefs (6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS) bounced back from a shootout loss at New England by plastering Cincinnati 45-10 giving 6.5 points in the Week 7 Sunday nighter.

    Denver comes into this AFC West clash with a little bit more rest, having played in the Thursday night game. In that contest, the Broncos (3-4 SU, 2-4-1 ATS) halted a four-game slide by steamrolling Arizona 45-10 laying 1 point on the road.

    “Denver will have three extra days to prepare for this game, after its Thursday night win over the Cardinals,” Murray said. “The Broncos may have saved Vance Joseph’s job with that win. I’m not sure that’s a good thing if you’re a Broncos fan.”

    The Broncos-Chiefs line was still at 9 when the Bengals-Chiefs game started, at which point the line was taken off the board, which is standard operating procedure at The SuperBook for teams in the Sunday night game. The line will be rehung Monday morning.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-23-2018 at 02:09 AM.

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    NFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 8


    Thursday. October 25

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    MIAMI (4 - 3) at HOUSTON (4 - 3) - 10/25/2018, 8:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    HOUSTON is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    Sunday. October 28

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    PHILADELPHIA (3 - 4) vs. JACKSONVILLE (3 - 4) - 10/28/2018, 9:30 AM
    Top Trends for this game.
    JACKSONVILLE is 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    CLEVELAND (2 - 4 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 2 - 1) - 10/28/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CLEVELAND is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
    PITTSBURGH is 106-78 ATS (+20.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
    PITTSBURGH is 63-36 ATS (+23.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
    PITTSBURGH is 70-43 ATS (+22.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CLEVELAND is 3-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
    PITTSBURGH is 4-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    DENVER (3 - 4) at KANSAS CITY (6 - 1) - 10/28/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DENVER is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    DENVER is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    DENVER is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
    DENVER is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    DENVER is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    DENVER is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
    KANSAS CITY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    KANSAS CITY is 5-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
    KANSAS CITY is 5-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NY JETS (3 - 4) at CHICAGO (3 - 3) - 10/28/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CHICAGO is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
    CHICAGO is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    WASHINGTON (4 - 2) at NY GIANTS (1 - 6) - 10/28/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    WASHINGTON is 62-96 ATS (-43.6 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    NY GIANTS are 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NY GIANTS is 2-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
    NY GIANTS is 2-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    SEATTLE (3 - 3) at DETROIT (3 - 3) - 10/28/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    SEATTLE is 37-61 ATS (-30.1 Units) in October games since 1992.
    SEATTLE is 44-67 ATS (-29.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
    SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    TAMPA BAY (3 - 3) at CINCINNATI (4 - 3) - 10/28/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in October games over the last 2 seasons.
    TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.
    CINCINNATI is 40-60 ATS (-26.0 Units) in October games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    BALTIMORE (4 - 3) at CAROLINA (4 - 2) - 10/28/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CAROLINA is 115-85 ATS (+21.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
    CAROLINA is 159-125 ATS (+21.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 5) at OAKLAND (1 - 5) - 10/28/2018, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OAKLAND is 51-83 ATS (-40.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 77-106 ATS (-39.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 77-106 ATS (-39.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 77-106 ATS (-39.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 38-79 ATS (-48.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
    OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 6) at ARIZONA (1 - 6) - 10/28/2018, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
    ARIZONA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
    ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
    ARIZONA is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ARIZONA is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
    ARIZONA is 5-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    GREEN BAY (3 - 2 - 1) at LA RAMS (7 - 0) - 10/28/2018, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    GREEN BAY is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games after playing on Monday night football since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 189-136 ATS (+39.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 188-234 ATS (-69.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 188-234 ATS (-69.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 134-184 ATS (-68.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 146-185 ATS (-57.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 66-98 ATS (-41.8 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 68-99 ATS (-40.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    NEW ORLEANS (5 - 1) at MINNESOTA (4 - 2 - 1) - 10/28/2018, 8:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MINNESOTA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in October games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MINNESOTA is 1-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
    MINNESOTA is 2-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Monday. October 29

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    NEW ENGLAND (5 - 2) at BUFFALO (2 - 5) - 10/29/2018, 8:15 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 32-13 ATS (+17.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 32-13 ATS (+17.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 31-13 ATS (+16.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Last edited by Udog; 10-23-2018 at 12:06 PM.

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    NFL

    Week 8


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    Trend Report
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    Thursday. October 25

    Miami Dolphins
    Miami is 6-10-2 ATS in its last 18 games
    The total has gone OVER in 12 of Miami's last 18 games
    Miami is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
    Miami is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
    Miami is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Houston
    Houston Texans
    Houston is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games
    Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    Houston is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 9 games
    Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home
    Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Miami



    Sunday. October 28

    Philadelphia Eagles
    Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
    Philadelphia is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games
    Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    Jacksonville Jaguars
    Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games


    Denver Broncos
    Denver is 4-14-1 ATS in its last 19 games
    Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games
    Denver is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
    Denver is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games on the road
    Denver is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
    Denver is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
    Denver is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
    Denver is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
    Kansas City Chiefs
    Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Kansas City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
    Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    Kansas City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City's last 8 games at home
    Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
    Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Denver
    Kansas City is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Denver
    Kansas City is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver


    New York Jets
    NY Jets is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    NY Jets is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games
    NY Jets is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
    NY Jets is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    NY Jets is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
    NY Jets is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Jets's last 9 games when playing Chicago
    Chicago Bears
    Chicago is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games
    Chicago is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 games at home
    Chicago is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games at home
    Chicago is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
    Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 9 games when playing NY Jets


    Cleveland Browns
    Cleveland is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
    Cleveland is 2-21-1 SU in its last 24 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
    Cleveland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Cleveland is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
    Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 12 of Cleveland's last 18 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
    Cleveland is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cleveland's last 12 games when playing Pittsburgh
    Cleveland is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
    Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
    Pittsburgh Steelers
    Pittsburgh is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games
    Pittsburgh is 13-4-1 SU in its last 18 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games
    Pittsburgh is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games at home
    Pittsburgh is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home
    Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games at home
    Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
    Pittsburgh is 6-0-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 12 games when playing Cleveland
    Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland


    Washington Redskins
    Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Washington's last 10 games
    Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 15 of Washington's last 22 games on the road
    Washington is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing NY Giants
    Washington is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games when playing NY Giants
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
    Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
    Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Washington's last 15 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
    New York Giants
    NY Giants is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of NY Giants's last 14 games
    NY Giants is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games at home
    NY Giants is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of NY Giants's last 15 games at home
    NY Giants is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Washington
    NY Giants is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games when playing Washington
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing Washington
    NY Giants is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
    NY Giants is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of NY Giants's last 15 games when playing at home against Washington


    Seattle Seahawks
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
    Seattle is 5-9-2 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
    Seattle is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
    Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
    Detroit Lions
    Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games
    Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Detroit's last 12 games at home
    Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle


    Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Tampa Bay is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games
    Tampa Bay is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
    Tampa Bay is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games on the road
    Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
    Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
    Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
    Cincinnati Bengals
    Cincinnati is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
    Cincinnati is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
    Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    Cincinnati is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home
    Cincinnati is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
    Cincinnati is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
    Cincinnati is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay


    Baltimore Ravens
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games
    Baltimore is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Baltimore is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Carolina
    Carolina Panthers
    Carolina is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games
    Carolina is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
    Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Baltimore


    Indianapolis Colts
    Indianapolis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Indianapolis's last 15 games
    Indianapolis is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 15 of Indianapolis's last 23 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 8 games on the road
    Indianapolis is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Oakland
    Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing Oakland
    Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
    Oakland Raiders
    Oakland is 5-13-2 ATS in its last 20 games
    Oakland is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Oakland's last 13 games
    Oakland is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games at home
    Oakland is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Indianapolis
    Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
    Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis


    San Francisco 49ers
    San Francisco is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games
    San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    San Francisco is 4-18 SU in its last 22 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games on the road
    San Francisco is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Arizona
    San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Arizona
    San Francisco is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Arizona
    San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
    Arizona Cardinals
    Arizona is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
    Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games at home
    Arizona is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing San Francisco
    Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
    Arizona is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against San Francisco
    Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco


    Green Bay Packers
    Green Bay is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
    Green Bay is 3-5-1 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 7 games
    Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Green Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games on the road
    Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
    Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
    Green Bay is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
    Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
    Los Angeles Rams
    LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    LA Rams is 6-11-2 ATS in its last 19 games at home
    LA Rams is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games at home
    LA Rams is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
    LA Rams is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
    LA Rams is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Green Bay
    LA Rams is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Green Bay


    New Orleans Saints
    New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 9 games
    New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    New Orleans is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Minnesota
    New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
    New Orleans is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing Minnesota
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans's last 10 games when playing Minnesota
    New Orleans is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans's last 8 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
    Minnesota Vikings
    Minnesota is 3-5-2 ATS in its last 10 games
    Minnesota is 16-4-1 SU in its last 21 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games
    Minnesota is 16-6-1 ATS in its last 23 games at home
    Minnesota is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Minnesota is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games at home
    Minnesota is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing New Orleans
    Minnesota is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing New Orleans
    Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 10 games when playing New Orleans
    Minnesota is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against New Orleans
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing at home against New Orleans



    Monday. October 29

    New England Patriots
    New England is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games
    New England is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 6 games
    New England is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games on the road
    New England is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 7 games on the road
    New England is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
    New England is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games when playing Buffalo
    New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
    New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 7 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
    Buffalo Bills
    Buffalo is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games
    Buffalo is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England
    Buffalo is 3-22 SU in its last 25 games when playing New England
    Buffalo is 2-11-1 ATS in its last 14 games when playing at home against New England
    Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New England
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing at home against New England


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by Udog; 10-23-2018 at 12:08 PM.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    73,864
    Credits
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    Default

    NFL
    Dunkel

    Week 8



    Thursday October 25, 2018

    Miami @ Houston


    Game 103-104
    October 25, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Miami
    121.454
    Houston
    136.820
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Houston
    by 15 1/2
    35
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Houston
    by 7
    45 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Houston
    (-7); Under


    Sunday October 28, 2018

    Philadelphia @ Jacksonville


    Game 251-252
    October 28, 2018 @ 9:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Philadelphia
    133.853
    Jacksonville
    125.137
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 8 1/2
    36
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 3
    42
    Dunkel Pick:
    Philadelphia
    (-3); Under

    Cleveland @ Pittsburgh


    Game 253-254
    October 28, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Cleveland
    125.655
    Pittsburgh
    139.239
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 13 1/2
    52
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 7 1/2
    50 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Pittsburgh
    (-7 1/2); Over

    Denver @ Kansas City


    Game 255-256
    October 28, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Denver
    130.249
    Kansas City
    143.032
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Kansas City
    by 13
    49
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Kansas City
    by 9 1/2
    55 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Kansas City
    (-9 1/2); Under

    NY Jets @ Chicago


    Game 257-258
    October 28, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    NY Jets
    129.445
    Chicago
    134.343
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Chicago
    by 5
    57
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Chicago
    by 7 1/2
    45 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    NY Jets
    (+7 1/2); Over

    Washington @ NY Giants


    Game 259-260
    October 28, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Washington
    126.712
    NY Giants
    129.659
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    NY Giants
    by 3
    41
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Washington
    by 1
    42
    Dunkel Pick:
    NY Giants
    (+1); Under

    Seattle @ Detroit


    Game 261-262
    October 28, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Seattle
    129.622
    Detroit
    137.763
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Detroit
    by 8
    51
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Detroit
    by 3
    49
    Dunkel Pick:
    Detroit
    (-3); Over

    Tampa Bay @ Cincinnati


    Game 263-264
    October 28, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Tampa Bay
    121.893
    Cincinnati
    134.788
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Cincinnati
    by 13
    55
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Cincinnati
    by 4
    54
    Dunkel Pick:
    Cincinnati
    (-4); Over

    Baltimore @ Carolina


    Game 265-266
    October 28, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Baltimore
    132.630
    Carolina
    139.229
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Carolina
    by 6 1/2
    44
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Baltimore
    by 2
    43
    Dunkel Pick:
    Carolina
    (+2); Over

    Indianapolis @ Oakland


    Game 267-268
    October 28, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Indianapolis
    125.459
    Oakland
    126.036
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Oakland
    by 1
    42
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Indianapolis
    by 3
    50
    Dunkel Pick:
    Oakland
    (+3); Under

    San Francisco @ Arizona


    Game 269-270
    October 28, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    San Francisco
    123.601
    Arizona
    121.670
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    San Francisco
    by 2
    46
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Arizona
    by 1
    43
    Dunkel Pick:
    San Francisco
    (+1); Over

    Green Bay @ LA Rams


    Game 271-272
    October 28, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Green Bay
    134.329
    LA Rams
    134.492
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Green Bay
    Even
    51
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Rams
    by 10
    57
    Dunkel Pick:
    Green Bay
    (+10); Under

    New Orleans @ Minnesota


    Game 273-274
    October 28, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    New Orleans
    134.679
    Minnesota
    140.322
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Minnesota
    by 5 1/2
    55
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Minnesota
    Pick
    52 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Minnesota
    Ove
    r


    Monday October 29, 2018

    New England @ Buffalo


    Game 275-276
    October 29, 2018 @ 8:15 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    New England
    139.322
    Buffalo
    120.939
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New England
    by 18 1/2
    65
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New England
    by 13 1/2
    44 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    New England
    (-13 1/2); Over
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-24-2018 at 01:01 PM.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    73,864
    Credits
    191,042

    Default

    NFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 8



    Thursday
    Dolphins (4-3) @ Texans (4-3)— Miami lost three of last four games after a 3-0 start; they’re 1-2 on road (under 3-0), losing 38-7 in Foxboro, 27-17 at Cincy— under Gase, Dolphins are 5-11 as road underdogs. Texans won their last four games after an 0-3 start; Houston is 2-1 at home, but 0-3 vs spread; under O’Brien, Texans are 14-10-1 as home favorites, but 2-6 in last eight tries. Houston won seven of eight series games, winning all four played here, by 2-3-1-20 points. AFC East underdogs are 5-9 vs spread outside the division; AFC South teams are 6-12 outside the division, 3-7 if favored. Osweiler is expected to start 3rd straight game (1-1) for Miami, with Tannehill still out. Under is 5-2 in Houston games this season.

    Sunday
    Eagles (3-4) vs Jaguars (3-4) (@ London)— Jacksonville won its last three London games, by 3-3-37 points, scoring 36 ppg; this is Eagles’ first trip across pond. Both teams are struggling as they travel; Eagles lost three of last four games; they’ve blown 17-3/17-0 leads in losses to Titans, Panthers; under Pederson, Philly is 9-7 in game with spread of 3 or fewer points. Six of Eagles’ seven games this year were decided by 6 or fewer points. Jax lost its last three games (scoring four TD’s on 33 drives); they benched Bortles in 3rd quarter Sunday for Kessler- they lost field position in five of last six games, last two by 12-16 yards. Jaguars are 3-2 in series, losing 28-3/34-17 in last two meetings.

    Browns (2-4-1) @ Steelers (3-2-1)— Cleveland has already played four OT games; only one of their games was decided by more than 4 points. Teams tied 21-all in season opener; Browns were +5 in turnovers but still didn’t win- they’ve lost 24 straight road games, are 4-32-1 in last 37 games vs Steelers, losing last 19 visits here (27-24/28-24 last two years). Cleveland is 8-17-1 in last 26 games as road dogs, 1-1-1 this year- under is 5-2 in their ’18 games. Steelers scored 41-28 points in winning its last two games before their bye; they’re 4-8 in last dozen games as home favorites. Steelers are 1-6 vs spread in last seven post-bye games, 0-5 in last five as a favorite. Under is 5-2 in Cleveland games, 3-3 in Steeler games.

    Broncos (3-4) @ Chiefs (6-1)— Chiefs (-3.5) won first meeting 27-23 in Denver four weeks ago; KC won last six series games (3 of 6 wins by 4 or fewer points)- Broncos lost 33-10/29-19 in last two visits to Arrowhead. Denver lost four of its last five games overall, with road losses by 13-18 points; under Joseph, Broncos are 1-9 vs spread in true road games, 0-6 as road underdogs. Chiefs are 7-0 vs spread this season, winning home games 38-27/30-14/45-10; KC covered 10 of its last 12 games as home favorites. In three home games this year, Chiefs scored 12 TD’s on only 26 drives, outscoring visitors 79-17 in first half of those games. Four of last six Denver games, three of last four Chief games stayed under total.

    Jets (3-4) @ Bears (3-3)— Jets are on road for first time in four weeks; they scored 34+ points in their three wins, 17 or fewer in four losses. In their losses, Jets went 3/out 23-50 times (46%); in their wins, only 9-35 (25.7%) times. Bears are 0-2 since bye, giving up 31-38 points- they turned ball over five times in last two games. Chicago is 2-1 at home this year, 2-0 as home favorites, after being 15-26-3 in that role from ’08-’17. Chicago is 8-3 in this series, winning last four by 7-10-4-8 points; Jets lost four of six visits to the Windy City. Last four Jet games, last three Chicago games went over total; AFC East road underdogs are 3-6 vs spread outside the division; NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 4-2.

    Redskins (4-2) @ Giants (1-6)— Giants lost last four games, allowing 33+ points in three of them; Big Blue has only 26 points on eight red zone drives in last two games- they’re 0-3 at home, losing by 5-15-21 points while scoring 15.3 ppg. Giants are 9 for last 33 on third down. Washington won three of its last four games; they were held to 9-19 points in their losses, scored 24.5 ppg in their wins- Redskins won field position by 14-12 yards last two weeks; they split their two road tilts. Under Gruden, Skins are 2-2 as road favorites. Giants are 7-3 in last ten series games, winning five of last six series games played here- four of those five wins were by 8+ points. Under is 4-2 in Redskin games,

    Seahawks (3-3) @ Lions (3-3)— Both teams won three of last four games after an 0-2 start; Seattle won five of last six series games, but they lost three of last four visits here, with win in Motor City in ’06- last meeting was 26-6 Seattle win in ’15 playoffs. Seattle is 5-3 vs spread in last eight post-bye games. Seahawks won three of last four games overall; they allowed 17 or less points in their wins, 27-24-33 points in losses. Lions scored 31-32 points in winning last two games; they’ve scored 24+ points in their last five games. NFC West teams are 3-7 vs spread in non-divisional road games; NFC North home teams are 4-3 outside the division. Four of last five Seahawks games stayed under; last three Lion games went over.

    Buccaneers (3-3) @ Bengals (4-3)— Cincy lost its last two games after a 4-1 start; their offense misses injured TE Eifert. Bengals are 4-0 when they run ball for 99+ yards; they ran for 66 or less yards in their losses- they were outscored in 2nd half in five of last six games. Buccaneers snapped 3-game skid with an OT win LW, but lost MLB Alexander for year (ACL). Bucs are 1-2 on road, allowing 40-48-34 points; they’re 2-6-1 vs spread in last nine games as road underdogs. Tampa Bay won six of last seven series games; they won their last four visits here. Last three series games were decided by total of five points. Bengals’ last three games stayed under total; five of last six Tampa Bay games went over.

    Ravens (4-3) @ Panthers (4-2)— Baltimore is 4-1 when it allows 14 or fewer points, 0-2 when it allows more; Ravens are 2-2 on road- underdogs covered 3 of those 4 games- since ’13, they’re 6-11-1 vs spread as a road favorite. Carolina rallied to beat Eagles LW after being down 17-0 in 4th quarter; Panthers won three of last four games, are 3-0 at home, winning by 8-10-2 points. Carolina covered five of last seven games as home underdogs. Baltimore won last two meetings 37-13/38-10, after losing first three meetings; Ravens lost two of three visits here, with last one in ’10. Last five Raven games stayed under total. Carolina is 16-8-1 in last 25 games where spread was 3 or fewer points; Ravens are 7-4-1 in their last dozen such games.

    Colts (2-5) @ Raiders (1-5)— Oakland has thrown in the towel, trading WR Cooper to Dallas on Monday; they’re 1-1 at home, beating Browns by 3 in OT- since then, Raiders scored only one TD on 17 possessions in losses to Chargers/Seahawks. In their five losses, Oakland was outscored 83-27 in 2nd half. Colts lost four of their last five games; they’re 1-3 on road, 2-2 vs spread, losing by 4-14-8 points. Indy won four of last five series games; teams split last four series games played in Oakland. Oakland covered five of last six post-bye games. Under is 4-2 in Oakland games, 1-3 in last four Indy games. AFC South teams are 7-12 vs spread outside the division; AFC West teams are 11-7.

    49ers (1-6) @ Cardinals (1-6)— Arizona’s only win was 28-18 (+4) in Santa Clara three weeks ago; Cardinals were +5 in turnovers that day (are -8 in their other games), had only one TD drive longer than 26 yards. Arizona is 0-4 at home, scoring only 11.8 ppg (6 TD’s on 44 drives); they fired their OC after their last game, a 45-10 home loss to Denver. 49ers lost their last five games; they’re 2-2 as road dogs this year, losing by 8-11-2-3 points. In their last three games, Niners turned ball over 12 times, with zero takeaways. SF lost field position in six of seven games, losing by 14+ yards in three of last four games. Redbirds won last seven series games, taking last four here. Over is 5-1 in 49ers’ last six games, 3-0 in Cardinals’ last three games.

    Packers (3-2-1) @ Rams (7-0)— Green Bay allowed 30+ points in three of last four games; they’re 0-2 on road, losing 31-17 at Washington, 31-23 in Detroit. Since ’13, Green Bay is 6-11 as road underdogs, but they’ve got Aaron Rodgers- over is 15-3 in their last 18 road games. In their last four games, Packers outscored opponents 49-16 in second half. Rams are 3-0 as home favorites this year, winning by 34-12-7 points. LA scored 33+ points in every game but the one played in 20-degree weather in Denver. Packers won last five series games, all by 10+ points; Rams’ last series win was in ’06. Green Bay is 0-2-1 vs spread in last three post-bye games. Four of last five Packer games went over total;

    Saints (5-1) @ Vikings (4-2-1)— Minnesota is 10-5 in last 15 series games, stunning Saints 29-24 in playoff game LY, when Diggs caught 61-yard TD pass at gun; home side won five of last six series games. Saints lost seven of last eight visits to Twin Cities. New Orleans won LW when star K Tucker missed his first-ever PAT; Saints covered their last four games, are 3-0 on road, scoring 43-33-24 points- they average 34.3 ppg in domes this season (28.5 outside). NO scored 17 TD’s on their last 36 drives. Minnesota won/covered its last three games; Vikings are 2-1 at home, somehow losing to Buffalo- three of their last four games went over total. Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 20-6 vs spread as a home favorite. Saints are 9-4 in last 13 games as road dogs.

    Monday
    Patriots (5-2) @ Bills (2-5)— In four games with Edelman/Gordon at WR, New England scored average of 39.3 ppg, winning all four games, last two by 3-7 points. Patriots are 1-2 on road; since ’16, NE is 12-6 as road favorites, but over last four years, New England is only 3-9 vs spread as a divisional road favorite. Patriots are 31-4 in last 35 games vs Buffalo, winning last six in Buffalo (four by 15+ points). Bills were +5 in turnovers in their two wins this season; in their last four games, they scored two offensive TD’s on 42 drives, with 12 turnovers. Buffalo started three QB’s in its first seven games, and injured rookie Allen was best by far. Last five Buffalo games stayed under the total; last three Patriot games went over.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-24-2018 at 01:02 PM.

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    Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott confirmed the Bills will start Derek Anderson in Week 8 against the Patriots.
    Nathan "Pick Six" Peterman is back to the bench...again.
    Week 8 spread: +13.5 at home vs. Pats


    The Oakland Raiders have placed RB Marshawn Lynch on IR (groin) and he will miss at least eight weeks. May have played his last game as a Raider.
    Oakland +3 vs. Colts in Week 8.


    Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone has announced Blake Bortles will start at quarterback at home against the Eagles in Week 8.
    Spread: Eagles -3.5
    Total: 41.5


    BREAKING: Cooper to the Cowboys? Dallas is on bye this week. Oakland +1.5 hosting Indianapolis. Total at 50.5
    Trade confirmed.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-23-2018 at 02:13 AM.

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    Opening Line Report - Week 8
    Joe Williams

    The results from NFL Week 7 were unbelievable, with several sides, moneyline results and totals decided by a single play or decision. That happens sometimes, but not multiple times in a single day, or even within the span of a few minutes.

    The jewel of the Week 8 schedule appears to be the NFC Divisional Round playoff rematch between the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints. The Saints were one of the teams benefiting from a fortitous situation involving a kicker. There were a ton of bad beats in Week 7, but then again there were also a bunch of people who were on the winning side, too. Hopefully you were one of the fortunate.

    Four more teams are resting their bumps and bruises on their bye week, and we'll have a second London game at 9:30 am ET. The Jacksonville Jaguars and Philadelphia Eagles go across the pond in search of a much-needed win. Desperation might cause this one to be a pretty good battle.

    (Odds as of Tuesday)

    Thursday, Oct. 25

    Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (-7.5, 44.5)


    It's already time for the Brock Osweiler revenge game? 'Brocktober' rolls on and he'll face his former team in Houston. OK, it's not exactly Joe Montana returning to face the 49ers as a member of the Chiefs in 1994, but anyway. This line opened anywhere from -7 to -7 1/2 depending on the shop. Southpoint and Treasure Island are among the books you can go if you really like the Texans and don't want to lay the hook, but act quickly.


    Sunday, Oct. 28

    Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 41.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars


    The Jags are in their second 'home', playing overseas in London in the morning game. Both of these teams desperately need a win, as each of the Super Bowl contenders from the preseason arrive in England's capital city with a 3-4 record. Vegas likes the defending champs, as they opened as a field-gial fave at most shops, and Caesars/Harrah's has it up to -3 1/2. If you're feeling the Eagles and want a bargain, Mirage-MGM had it down to -2 1/2 as of early Monday evening from an open of -3.

    Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8, 51)

    These two sides met in Week 1 on the shores of Lake Erie, and they decided nothing in a 21-21 tie to open the season. Cleveland has posted a 3-0-1 ATS mark over the past four meetings in this series. The Browns have been involved in four overtime games, including Week 1 obviously, in their seven battles. Pittsburgh is coming off a bye, and the public is feeling the Steelers at home. The line opened at -7 1/2 at most shops and rose to -8 at Atlantis, Jerry's Nugget, Southpoint and Stratosphere.

    Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 55)

    These teams met in a Monday nighter earlier this season, with Kansas City winning 27-23 on a -3 1/2-point line. They opened as 10-point favorites everywhere except for -9 at Westgate Superbook, while Mirage-MGM opened the Chiefs as high as -10 1/2.

    New York Jets at Chicago Bears (-7, 46)

    The Jets were routed at home by an NFC North team last week, while the Bears came up a yard short at home on a near miracle to at least tie their game against an AFC East foe and perhaps force overtime. TI opened htis game at -6, and most other shops opened it at -6.5, and the money has been on the home side, driving the Bears up to -7 at most books.

    Washington Redskins (-1, 42) at New York Giants

    The 'Skins squeaked by the Cowboys on a missed field goal off the upright, while the Giants scratched back for a backdoor, raw bad beat cover in the ATL on Monday night, losing 23-20. While the books give the slight edge to the first-place Redskins, the home team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven in this series. The 'under' is also 12-3 in the past 15 meetings in metro NYC.

    Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-3, 49.5)

    A pair of .500 clubs hook up in the Motor City, and the public is feeling the home side. Detroit opened at -2 1/2 at Coasts, Golden Nugget, Mirage-MGM, the Strat and Wynn, among others, but it's up to the Lions -3 nearly across the board. TI opened the game at -2 and you can still catch the home side at -2 1/2 if you hurry.

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5, 54)

    The Buccaneers snuck by the Browns in OT, while the Bengals were emasculated in K.C. by the Chiefs. The Bengals opened at -6 on Monday afternoon, but the money has streamed in on the underdog, dropping the Bengals to -4 1/2 at Atlantis, Coasts, the Strat, Westgate and Wynn. There are still a few places you can catch the Bucs with five still, but no one appears to be buying the home side.

    Baltimore Ravens (-2, 43) at Carolina Panthers

    This is a curious line, as the Ravens fell at home on a missed extra point in the final minute of regulation, while the Panthers won a road game against the defending champs in miraculous comeback fashion. Baltimore opened as a Pick 'em at Westgate, and quickly rose to Ravens -1 1/2. Mirage-MGM, Stations and Wynn has the Ravens all the way up to -2. It's likely the public weighs in and drops this line back down, backing the home side, but we'll see. The sharps are likely a bounce-back for the boys from Charm City after a Week 7 gut punch.

    Indianapolis Colts (-3, 50) at Oakland Raiders

    The Colts blasted league punching bag Buffalo, while the Raiders are careening out of control and they just traded WR Amari Cooper to the Dallas Cowboys. Indy opened at -1 1/2 at most shops and were quickly bet up to -3 at nearly all shops. Jerry's Nugget and TI still had Indy at -2 1/2 as of early Tuesday morning, but you better act quickly if you like the road side.

    San Francisco 49ers (at Arizona Cardinals (PK, 43)

    These teams just met a few weeks ago in San Francisco, and it was rookie QB Josh Rosen and the Cards coming away with the a victory, 28-18. San Francisco has posted a 5-2 ATS mark in their past seven on the road, and they're 7-3 ATS in the past 10 inside the NFC West. They have also covered nine of their past 12 trips to Arizona. This game is listed as a pick 'em mostly across the board, although Coasts and Jerry's Nugget had the game with the Cards -1. Expect movement in this one.

    Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams (-9, 57)

    The Golden Nugget opened the Rams at -9 1/2, and the line dropped to -9 in the matter of three hours on Monday evening. Most every shop has this game with the home side laying the nine, except for TI, which had the line down to -8 1/2. The Packers are coming off their bye week, so they will enter the game well rested.

    New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-1, 53)

    It's a rematch of a playoff game last season which was won in miraculous fashion on the final play of the game. Case Keenum isn't walking through that door, though, although Kirk Cousins is likely an upgrade. The money has been on the Saints, as the line was driven down from -1 1/2 to a Pick 'em at Stations. Westgate opened the Vikings at -2 1/2, and it's down to -1 as of the overnight Tuesday. Early bettors just aren't feeling the home side in this one.


    Monday, Oct. 29

    New England Patriots (-13.5) at Buffalo Bills


    The Patriots usually dominate the Bills, but Buffalo is a solid 2-0 ATS as a double-digit 'dog this season, including an outright win in Week 3 at Minnesota. The 'under' has connected in five in a row for Buffalo, too.

    It hasn't matter in early betting, as the line pushed up from -13 1/2 to -14 at Atlantis, while going from -13 to -14 at the Strat. If you're feeling the Pats and do not want to lay the full two TDs, TI and Wynn still had it listed at -13 1/2 heading into the overnight on Tuesday. The total has held steady at 44 1/2 at most shops.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-24-2018 at 01:03 PM.

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    By: Brandon DuBreuil


    COWBOYS GRAB COOPER

    The Oakland Raiders continued their roster overhaul by sending receiver Amari Cooper to the Dallas Cowboys in exchange for a first-round pick — and we must say that is an impressive move by the Raiders for someone as inconsistent as Cooper. The Cowboys have a bye in Week 8 while the Raiders host the Colts. The line opened at Raiders +2 and ticked to +3 after the trade announcement.

    This move is a clear signal to the rest of the team that the Raiders are officially tanking and there are already reports of an unhappy locker room as players learned of the trade via their phones and not from Jon Gruden or management. It’s fair to question how motivated the team is going to be coming out of its bye week — in fact, lineman Jonathan Feliciano summed things up perfectly with this tweet. We’re not going anywhere near the Raiders in Week 8 and we’re actually going to grab the Colts at minus-3 before the line gets bigger.


    LYNCH TO IR

    The Raiders dominated NFL headlines on Monday as news also broke that running back Marshawn Lynch has been sent to injured reserve with groin and core-muscle injuries. The loss of Lynch and Cooper means that the Raiders are down their two most talented offensive playmakers. Oakland moves forward with Doug Martin and Jalen Richard at running back and with Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant at wide receiver.

    It’s tough to say exactly how the Raiders offense will play out with touches at running back and targets at receiver, so we’re looking to the tight end position for a Week 8 bet. Jared Cook is actually the team leader in targets so far this season with 43, despite receiving just two in Oakland’s last game against Seattle. Cook is Oakland’s top receiving threat and that’s even more true with Cooper out of town. We’re confident that Gruden and Derek Carr will realize that two targets to Cook was a mistake and will fix it this week against the Colts. We’re backing the Over for his receptions total.


    BACK TO (LONDON) BORTLES

    Jacksonville coach Doug Marrone announced on Monday that Blake Bortles will start in Week 8 as the Jags “host” the Eagles in London. Bortles was benched early in the third quarter of Sunday’s loss to Houston as Cody Kessler came on in relief. Just like most of his career, inconsistency is killing Bortles this season: He has two games with a QB rating over 110, five games under 73, and nothing in between.

    On paper, it looks like Bortles is going to be in tough on Sunday against a physical Eagles defense, but Bortles does have a few things going for him. First, teams have been moving the ball through the air against the Eagles to the tune of 269.7 yards per game. Second, Bortles has been great in London over the years, with a 3-0 record, an 8:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has led the Jags to an average of 36 points per game. Last season, Bortles threw for 244 yards and four touchdowns on 20 of 31 passing in London against Baltimore.

    Bortles has been horrible this season, but he’s also shown an ability to bounce back from awfulness throughout his career. We’re hoping London Bortles shows up this week at Wembley and we’re going with the Over on his passing yards total.


    BILLS STICKING WITH ANDERSON

    The Buffalo Bills are sticking with Derek Anderson in Week 8, even though he threw for just 175 yards on 31 attempts and turned the ball over four times in leading the offense to a single field goal. The sad fact of the matter is that the 35-year-old who wasn’t playing football two weeks ago and barely knows the team’s offense is a better option than Nathan “Pick Six” Peterman.

    In Week 8, the Bills host the Patriots as a 13.5-point home underdog on Monday Night Football. Last week, we backed a winner with the Bills team total Under 16.5 and we don’t see any other way to bet this game — especially with LeSean McCoy still in the concussion protocol. The Bills stink and we’re fading them until further notice by taking the Under on their team total.


    THE RAMS JUST ROLL

    The L.A. Rams’ offense is simply ridiculous. After putting up 39 against the hapless 49ers on Sunday, the Rams have now scored 33-plus points in six of seven games on the season. In fact, the Rams have scored 30 or more points in 15 of 23 games with Sean McVay as head coach.

    In Week 8, the Rams host the Green Bay Packers and a defense that allowed C.J. Beathard and the Niners to move the ball with ease en route to scoring 30 points the last time they were on the field. The Packers defense has only been good in one game this season and that was when it shut out the Bills. If you don’t include that game, Green Bay is allowing 28.8 points against per game. On the road, it has been even worse, giving up 31 points at both Washington and Detroit. The Rams shouldn’t have any issues getting north of 30 once again this week and we’re taking the Over on their team total.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-24-2018 at 01:04 PM.

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    NFL Week 7 was loaded with prime-time bad beats (or backdoor covers depending on your perspective).

    The big winners of the week were road teams:

    Road Teams: 11-3 ATS (52-53-2 ATS on the season)
    Road Favorites: 5-1 ATS (15-19 ATS)
    Road Underdogs: 6-2 ATS (37-34-2 ATS)

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    NYG trends have been added to replies 4 & 5. Falcons on bye-week.

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    Tech Trends - Week 8
    Bruce Marshall

    Thursday, Oct. 25

    MIAMI at HOUSTON (FOX/NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)

    Texans 2-10 last 12 overall vs. line, and no covers last five at home.
    Tech Edge: Dolphins, based on team trends.



    Sunday, Oct. 28

    PHILADELPHIA vs. JACKSONVILLE - at Wembley Stadium, London (NFL, 9:30 a.m. ET)

    Jags slumping, 1-4 SU and vs. line last five. Jags also 1-5 vs. spread last six in reg season away from Everbank. Birds “over” six straight away from Linc.
    Tech Edge: “Over” and Eagles, based on “totals” and team trends.


    CLEVELAND at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Brownies have covered 3 of last 4 at Pittsburgh and ride a 4-game cover streak against Steelers. Tomlin 1-7 vs. spread last 8 at home. Steel 6-2 “over” last 8.
    Tech Edge: Browns and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.


    DENVER at KANSAS CITY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Andy Reid on 11-game spread cover streak in reg season and has now covered last six vs. Denver. Broncos broke road drought at Arizona but Vance Joseph still 2-9 SU and vs. spread away (Denver 2-11 last 13 away). “Overs” 5-1-1 last seven in series.
    Tech Edge: Chiefs and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.


    NY JETS at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Todd Bowles 11-7-2 last 20 as dog since late in 2016. Bears however 10-4-2 last 16 vs. spread at Soldier Field (2-1 for Nagy).
    Tech Edge: Slight to Bears, based on team trends.


    WASHINGTON at NY GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Colts 3-1 vs. line last four away. Jets 3-5-1 last nine vs. line since late 2017.
    Tech Edge: Colts, based on recent trends.


    SEATTLE at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Lions have covered five straight since debacle of an opener vs. Jets. Detroit also “over” 6-1 dating to late 2017. Seahawks “under” 9-3 last 12 away from CenturyLink.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Lions, based on recent trends.


    TAMPA BAY at CINCINNATI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Bucs “over” 6-1 since late 2017, Cincy “over” 6-2 last eight. Bucs 2-5-1 vs. line last eight away.
    Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.


    BALTMORE at CAROLINA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Ravens 5-2-1 last eight as dog. Cam 3-5 vs. points last seven in reg season. Panthers also “over” 9-5 last 14 since late LY.
    Tech Edge: Ravens and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


    INDIANAPOLIS at OAKLAND (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
    Raiders 4-13-3 vs. line since early 2017, also “under” 11-2 last 13 since mid 2017.
    Tech Edge: Colts and “under,” based on Raiders trends.


    SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
    Cards were actually 3-0-1 vs. spread in the four previous to Denver fiasco. Niners have covered last two on road and are 6-3 vs. spread last nine away. Road team has covered last five in series. Niners “over” 8-1 last nine since late 2017.
    Tech Edge: “Over” and 49ers, based on “totals” and series road trends.


    GREEN BAY at L.A. RAMS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
    Pack “over” 12-3 last 15 since mid 2017, Rams “over” 8-4 last 12 reg season games.
    Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.


    NEW ORLEANS at MINNESOTA (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
    Vikes picking up pace, now 3-0-1 last four vs. spread, but Saints have covered 4 in a row. Saints 12-5 last 17 as dog, Vikes 13-3-2 last 18 on board reg season.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Saints, based on team trends.



    Monday, Oct. 29

    NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO (ESPN, 8:25 p.m. ET)

    Home team 6-1 vs. line in first seven Patriots games this season (NE 1-2 away). Belichick won and covered both vs. Bills LY and has won six straight at Orchard Park, covering five. Bills “under” 7-2 last nine since late LY.
    Tech Edge: Patriots and slight to “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-24-2018 at 01:06 PM.

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    By: Brandon DuBreuil

    G-MEN TANKING TOO?

    On Monday it became clear that the Oakland Raiders are tanking and on Tuesday the New York Giants joined them, trading away cornerback Eli Apple to New Orleans and defensive lineman Damon “Snacks” Harrison to the Lions. There are also reports that the G-Men are actively shopping cornerback Janoris Jenkins. One thing the Giants won’t be doing, however, is benching their quarterback as coach Pat Shurmur confirmed that Eli Manning will continue as the starter.

    Manning is coming off his best game of the season where he threw for 399 yards and a touchdown on 27-of-38 passing against the Falcons on Monday night. A couple things to note about Eli, however. It was just the second time he broke the 300-yard mark this season and it was against the 29th-ranked team in pass defense DVOA. Manning and the Giants host Washington in Week 8 and a defense that is ranked 13th in pass defense DVOA and that is giving up 238.3 passing yards against per game. One reason for this is that Washington usually wins the time-of-possession battle, holding the ball for 32:15 per game, the second-highest mark in the league. We see Manning having one of his signature dud games on Sunday and we’re taking the Under on his passing yards total.


    PACKERS GETTING REINFORCEMENTS

    Green Bay is getting healthier coming out of its bye as receivers Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison both practiced on Tuesday and are on track to face the Rams on Sunday. This is good news for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense and it will hopefully open up some additional space for tight end Jimmy Graham.

    We got a winner by fading the Rams’ ability to cover tight ends by backing George Kittle to go over 4.5 receptions last week and we’re employing a similar strategy this week. L.A.’s opponents are targeting their tight ends on almost 25 percent of their passes. Graham has 20 total targets over his last two games and turned them into stat lines of 6-76 and 5-104. All the injuries at receiver helped force a chemistry between Rodgers and Graham and we expect the two to connect often on Sunday in a game that’s looking like a shootout with a total of 56. We’re backing the Over on Graham’s receptions total.


    BACK TO UZOMAH

    Sometimes things just don’t make sense in the sports world. In Week 7, Bengals tight end C.J. Uzomah played 57-of-59 snaps in a game where Cincy got blown out — that’s usually the perfect recipe to pad the receiving stats. But Andy Dalton made just 29 pass attempts in the 45-10 blowout and it resulted in just two targets for Uzomah and a stat line of 2-13-1.

    This week, the Bengals host Tampa Bay and we expect a bounce-back performance from Uzomah, especially with news that receiver John Ross is out for a few weeks. The Buccaneers are amongst the worst teams at covering tight ends, having given up 40 catches for 538 yards and four touchdowns on 50 targets, including a stat line of 4-52-1 to Browns tight end David Njoku last week. This same bet wasn't a winner last week, but we like its chances this week and we’re going with the Over for Uzomah’s receptions total.


    CONNER’S RUN CONTINUES

    Le’Veon Bell still hasn’t reported to the Steelers, which means James Conner will again be the bell cow as Pittsburgh comes out of its bye to host Cleveland. If you look purely at stats, it’s easy to see how opponents should game plan against the Browns as Cleveland’s defense ranks first in pass defense DVOA but 25th in run defense DVOA. This bodes well for Conner, who has 40 total carries over his last two games. The Browns have also given up 10 rushing touchdowns on the season, second-worst in the NFL. This also bodes well for Conner, who has nine red-zone carries and four rushing touchdowns over his last two games. Conner is lined up to have another huge game on Sunday and we’re backing him to score a touchdown at any time.


    MACK ATTACK

    The Indianapolis Colts seem to have found their man at running back as Marlon Mack has completely taken control of the backfield, with 34 touches and 61 snaps over the last two games (to Nyheim Hines’ 11 and 47). Mack was dominant against the Bills last week, rushing for 126 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries and adding two catches for 33 yards and another score.

    On Sunday, Mack and the Colts head to Oakland to take on the train wreck that is the Raiders and a defensive unit that is giving up 131.8 rushing yards per game, sixth-worst in the NFL. We noted yesterday that we’re fading Oakland this week. We like the idea of Indianapolis putting up another big offensive number this week and if they do, Mack will be a big part of it. We’re taking the Over on his rushing yards total and backing him to score a touchdown at any time.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-24-2018 at 01:07 PM.

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    NFL's Top ATS Teams (based on cover %):

    1. Chiefs 7-0 ATS
    2. Lions 5-1 ATS
    3. Browns 5-2 ATS
    t4. Saints 4-2 ATS
    t4. Redskins 4-2 ATS
    6. Vikings 4-2-1 ATS


    NFL's Worst ATS Teams (based on cover %):

    t29. Texans 2-5 ATS
    t29. Falcons 2-5 ATS
    t29. Eagles 2-5 ATS
    t29. 49ers 2-5 ATS
    t26. Packers 2-4 ATS
    t26. Buccaneers 2-4 ATS
    t26. Raiders 2-4 ATS
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-25-2018 at 12:21 PM.

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