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Thread: Monday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 10/22

  1. #1
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    Default Monday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 10/22

    Trends and Indexes

    Monday, October 22

    Good Luck on day #295 of 2018!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

    Top 6 picks in Week 7 of Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)

    1) Vikings, -3 (1,192)- W

    2) Patriots, -3 (966)- W

    3) Chiefs, -6 (886)- W

    4) Lions, -2.5 (841)- W

    5) Ravens, -3.5 (837)- L

    6) Buccaneers, -3 (743)- T

    Season record: 19-20-3


    **********

    Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

    13) Saints 24, Ravens 23— Justin Tucker was only NFL kicker who hadn’t missed a PAT since they moved it back 15 yards- he had made something like 222 in a row, but he missed a PAT with 0:24 left here that would’ve tied the game.

    Drew Brees threw his 500th career TD pass in this game; Saints are 5-1, and lead Carolina by a game in the NFC South.

    12) Panthers 21, Eagles 17— Carolina trailed this game 17-0 in fourth quarter:

    Carolina’s first five drives: 29 plays, 106 yards, five punts, zero points.
    Carolina’s last three drives: 28 plays, 236 yards, three TD’s, 21 points.

    Cam Newton looked like freakin’ John Elway in the 4th quarter.

    I’m guessing you’ll hear the word “finish” a lot around Philly the next few days; they blew a 17-3 lead in an earlier loss to Tennessee.

    11) Chargers 20, Titans 19— Fans in England haven’t had many chances to see a real tight NFL game, so this was good for them, and good for the league.

    We went thru this with a MAC game yesterday, but Tennessee scored a TD with 0:31 left, then went for two points and the win- they didn’t get either. Titans did run the ball for 164 yards in this game and converted 9-15 third down plays, so i understand their confidence in being able to make it, but just kick the PAT and play overtime.

    Chargers’ two TD’s in this game were on plays of 75, 55 yards.

    10) Patriots 38, Bears 31— Chicago completed a Hail Mary to the 1-yard line on the last play of the game, but the WR couldn’t get in the end zone.

    New England’s special teams dominated this game; they scored TD’s on a kick return and a blocked punt- that doesn’t happen much, two special teams TD’s in the same game.

    9) Buccaneers 26, Browns 23 OT: Lot of interesting stuff about this game:
    — Chandler Catanzaro won this game with a 59-yard FG with with 1:55 left in OT; he had missed a PAT and a 40-yard FG earlier in the game.
    — Cleveland is 2-4-1; four of their seven games went to overtime.
    — Tampa Bay led this game 16-2 at halftime.
    — Bucs turned ball over four times (-3); Cleveland had a 17-yard advantage in field position.
    — Browns’ TD drives were 26-75-16 yards.
    — Cleveland has now lost 24 consecutive road games.

    8) Lions 32, Dolphins 21— Detroit evens its record at 3-3 after an 0-2 start; they ran ball for 248 yards. Defensive-oriented coaches like to run the ball more, to keep their defense off the field, and it seems like Matt Patricia did that very well in this game. When they did throw the ball, Detroit averaged 9.1 yards/attempt.

    7) Texans 20, Jaguars 7— QB Deshaun Watson couldn’t fly with the Texans to Jacksonville on Friday night because of concerns about his partially collapsed lung; instead, he took a 12-hour bus ride to Jacksonville.

    Bus? Really? Hopefully they at least rented him a limo or something he could sleep in, and he wasn’t riding on a Greyhound, wth stops all over the gulf coast.

    As for this game, Blake Bortles was benched in the 3rd quarter in favor of Cody Kessler, and the Jaguars head to England next week with some serious problems.

    6) Vikings 37, Jets 17— Turnovers were a big story this week; Jets were -4 here (0-4), which is a big part of why Minnesota had a 14-yard edge in field position. Total yardage was only 316-263; three of the Vikings’ four TD’s came on plays longer than 30 yards.

    5) Colts 37, Bills 5— Read something this week that this was the first time EVER that a 1-6 NFL team was favored by 7+ points over a team with a better record.

    Colts were +5 in turnovers, ran ball for 220 yards. In their last four games, Buffalo has scored two offensive TD’s on 42 drives, with 12 turnovers.

    4) Rams 39, 49ers 10— Rams are first NFL team to win three consecutive weeks on road since the 2014 Bengals; things get tougher the next two weeks- LA hosts the Packers next week, and visit New Orleans the week after that.

    3) Redskins 20, Cowboys 17— Dallas’ 52-yard FG try hit the left upright as time expired to give Redskins their 4th win (4-2) of the year. Cowboys are 0-3 on road, 3-0 at home. Washington has a two-game lead in the loss column in the NFC East.

    2) Broncos 45, Cardinals 10— Arizona fired its offensive coordinator less than 12 hours after this game ended Thursday night; former NFL QB Byron Leftwich takes over- it’ll be his first stint as OC in the NFL. He is 38 years; he started 50 NFL games as a quarterback for four teams.

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    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Monday, October 22


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    CHARLOTTE (2 - 1) at TORONTO (3 - 0) - 10/22/2018, 7:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CHARLOTTE is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
    CHARLOTTE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    TORONTO is 42-26 ATS (+13.4 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TORONTO is 4-4 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
    TORONTO is 6-2 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    ORLANDO (1 - 2) at BOSTON (2 - 1) - 10/22/2018, 7:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ORLANDO is 71-93 ATS (-31.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    BOSTON is 61-39 ATS (+18.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    BOSTON is 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BOSTON is 5-2 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
    BOSTON is 6-1 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    INDIANA (2 - 1) at MINNESOTA (1 - 2) - 10/22/2018, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    INDIANA is 54-37 ATS (+13.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    INDIANA is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) after scoring 115 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MINNESOTA is 2-2 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
    MINNESOTA is 2-2 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NEW YORK (1 - 2) at MILWAUKEE (2 - 0) - 10/22/2018, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MILWAUKEE is 404-477 ATS (-120.7 Units) in home games since 1996.
    MILWAUKEE is 134-172 ATS (-55.2 Units) after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
    MILWAUKEE is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW YORK is 4-3 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
    MILWAUKEE is 6-1 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CHICAGO (0 - 2) at DALLAS (1 - 1) - 10/22/2018, 8:35 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DALLAS is 2-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
    DALLAS is 2-2 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    MEMPHIS (1 - 1) at UTAH (1 - 1) - 10/22/2018, 9:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MEMPHIS is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    MEMPHIS is 165-125 ATS (+27.5 Units) after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MEMPHIS is 5-2 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
    UTAH is 4-3 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    WASHINGTON (0 - 2) at PORTLAND (2 - 0) - 10/22/2018, 10:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PORTLAND is 47-34 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    WASHINGTON is 3-1 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
    WASHINGTON is 3-1 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    SAN ANTONIO (1 - 1) at LA LAKERS (0 - 2) - 10/22/2018, 10:35 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    LA LAKERS is 4-3 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
    LA LAKERS is 4-3 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    PHOENIX (1 - 1) at GOLDEN STATE (2 - 1) - 10/22/2018, 10:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PHOENIX is 174-129 ATS (+32.1 Units) after allowing 115 points or more since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    GOLDEN STATE is 5-3 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
    GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-22-2018 at 12:25 PM.

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    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Monday, October 22


    Charlotte won two of its first three games (3-0 vs spread, over 2-1); Hornets are 1-0 as road underdogs. Raptors won/covered their first three games, two of which were at home; all three of their games went over. Toronto won its last four games with Charlotte (3-1 vs spread); Hornets lost five of last six trips to Canada (3-3 vs spread). Four of last five series games went over the total.

    Orlando lost two of its first three games (2-1 vs spread); they’re 1-0 as road underdogs. Tw of their three games stayed under. Boston won two of its first three games; they’re 1-0 as home favorites- under is 2-1 in their games. Celtics won seven of last eight games with Orlando (6-2 vs spread); Magic are 2-4 vs spread in last six visits to Beantown. Under is 3-1 in last four series games.

    Indiana won two of its first three games; home side covered all three games (over 2-1). Wolves lost two of their first three games (over 3-0), allowing 124.7 ppg; they’re 0-1 as home favorites. Road side won seven of last eight Indiana-Minnesota games; Pacers won/covered their last four visits here. Over is 5-3 in last eight series games.

    New York lost two of its first three games but covered all three (under 2-1); both their losses are by two points. Milwaukee won its first two games, by 1-17 points (1-0 as home favorite)- both their games went over total. Knicks lost eight of last ten games with the Bucks; they lost four of last five trips to Milwaukee (3-2 vs spread). Under is 5-3 in last eight series games.

    Chicago lost its first two games by 9-2 points, allowing 122.5 ppg (over 2-0). Mavericks split its first two games, with home side covering both games (over 2-0). Bulls beat Dallas twice LY, by 3-8 points, after losing six of previous eight series games; Chicago is 3-2 vs spread in its last five visits to Dallas. Under is 3-1-1 in last five series games.

    Memphis split its first two games, losing its only road game by 28 (over 1-1). Utah split its first two games, which were decided by total of seven points (over 2-0). Jazz won their last three games with Memphis, by 4-17-10 points; under is 7-3 in last ten series games. Grizzlies covered their last three visits to Utah.

    Wizards lost their first two games, both at home, by total of five points (over 2-0). Trailblazers won/covered their first two games over Lakers/Spurs, both at home (over 2-0). Wizards won three of last four games with Portland, winning last two visits to Oregon; seven of last nine series games went over.

    Lakers lost their first two games, both by nine points, allowing 126 ppg (over 2-0). San Antonio split its first two games, winning its only home game (over 2-0). Lakers won their last four games with San Antonio, winning last two played here, by 12-10 points. Eight of last ten series games went over the total.

    Golden State lost by hoop in Denver last nite; they won two of first three games, are 0-1 as home favorites- their last two games were decided by total of three points. Suns slit their first couple games (over 1-1), losing only road game by 28 in Denver. Warriors won their last ten games with Phoenix, covering five of last six; Suns are 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to Oakland. Over is 5-2 in last seven series games.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-22-2018 at 12:26 PM.

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    NBA

    Monday, October 22


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    Trend Report
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    Orlando Magic
    Orlando is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games
    Orlando is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Orlando is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Orlando's last 11 games on the road
    Orlando is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Boston
    Orlando is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Boston
    Orlando is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Boston
    Orlando is 1-15 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Boston
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Orlando's last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
    Boston Celtics
    Boston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Boston's last 10 games
    Boston is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games at home
    Boston is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 15 of Boston's last 23 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games at home
    Boston is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Orlando
    Boston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Orlando
    Boston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Orlando
    Boston is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Orlando
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games when playing at home against Orlando


    Charlotte Hornets
    Charlotte is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Charlotte is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Charlotte's last 7 games
    Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Charlotte is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Charlotte's last 9 games on the road
    Charlotte is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Charlotte's last 5 games when playing Toronto
    Charlotte is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    Charlotte is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    Toronto Raptors
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games
    Toronto is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Toronto's last 8 games at home
    Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Charlotte
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Charlotte
    Toronto is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games when playing at home against Charlotte
    Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Charlotte


    New York Knicks
    New York is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    New York is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games
    New York is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    New York is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 5 games on the road
    New York is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
    New York is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
    New York is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of New York's last 10 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
    Milwaukee Bucks
    Milwaukee is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
    Milwaukee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 21 of Milwaukee's last 25 games
    Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Milwaukee is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games at home
    Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 11 games at home
    Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing New York
    Milwaukee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New York
    Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New York
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 10 games when playing at home against New York


    Indiana Pacers
    Indiana is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games
    Indiana is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Indiana is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Indiana's last 18 games on the road
    Indiana is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
    The total has gone OVER in 15 of Indiana's last 22 games when playing Minnesota
    Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
    Indiana is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
    Minnesota Timberwolves
    Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
    Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games
    Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games at home
    Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indiana
    The total has gone OVER in 15 of Minnesota's last 22 games when playing Indiana
    Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana
    Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana


    Chicago Bulls
    Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
    Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games
    Chicago is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
    Chicago is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
    Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Chicago's last 15 games when playing Dallas
    Chicago is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Dallas
    Chicago is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Dallas
    Dallas Mavericks
    Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Dallas is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games
    Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Dallas is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Dallas's last 14 games at home
    Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
    Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Dallas's last 15 games when playing Chicago
    Dallas is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Chicago
    Dallas is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games when playing at home against Chicago


    Memphis Grizzlies
    Memphis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Memphis is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Memphis's last 10 games
    Memphis is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Memphis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Memphis's last 10 games on the road
    Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Utah
    Memphis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Utah
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Memphis's last 10 games when playing Utah
    Memphis is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Utah
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis's last 7 games when playing on the road against Utah
    Utah Jazz
    Utah is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
    Utah is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 6 games
    Utah is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home
    Utah is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Memphis
    Utah is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Memphis
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Utah's last 10 games when playing Memphis
    Utah is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Memphis
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 7 games when playing at home against Memphis


    Washington Wizards
    Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    Washington is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
    Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Portland
    Washington is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Portland
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Portland
    The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Washington's last 21 games when playing on the road against Portland
    Portland Trail Blazers
    Portland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Portland is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games
    Portland is 18-4-2 ATS in its last 24 games at home
    Portland is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing Washington
    Portland is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Washington
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
    The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Portland's last 21 games when playing at home against Washington


    San Antonio Spurs
    San Antonio is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
    San Antonio is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 6 games
    San Antonio is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
    San Antonio is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Antonio's last 9 games on the road
    San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Lakers
    San Antonio is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games when playing LA Lakers
    San Antonio is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Lakers
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of San Antonio's last 11 games when playing LA Lakers
    San Antonio is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
    San Antonio is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
    Los Angeles Lakers
    LA Lakers is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    LA Lakers is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Lakers's last 5 games
    LA Lakers is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    LA Lakers is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
    LA Lakers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio
    LA Lakers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio
    LA Lakers is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games when playing San Antonio
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of LA Lakers's last 11 games when playing San Antonio
    LA Lakers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Antonio
    LA Lakers is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against San Antonio
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 6 games when playing at home against San Antonio


    Phoenix Suns
    Phoenix is 3-18 SU in its last 21 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games
    Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Phoenix is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Phoenix's last 7 games on the road
    Phoenix is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Golden State
    Phoenix is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Phoenix's last 7 games when playing Golden State
    Phoenix is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Phoenix's last 7 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    Golden State Warriors
    Golden State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games
    Golden State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 7 games at home
    Golden State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Phoenix
    Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Golden State's last 7 games when playing Phoenix
    Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Phoenix
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Golden State's last 7 games when playing at home against Phoenix


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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-22-2018 at 12:26 PM.

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    Dunkel

    Monday, October 22



    Charlotte @ Toronto

    Game 501-502
    October 22, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Charlotte
    115.757
    Toronto
    127.862
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Toronto
    by 12
    228
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Toronto
    by 9 1/2
    224 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Toronto
    (-9 1/2); Over

    Orlando @ Boston


    Game 503-504
    October 22, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Orlando
    105.083
    Boston
    125.140
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Boston
    by 20
    215
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Boston
    by 12
    211
    Dunkel Pick:
    Boston
    (-12); Over

    Indiana @ Minnesota


    Game 505-506
    October 22, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Indiana
    115.720
    Minnesota
    120.041
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Minnesota
    by 4 1/2
    233
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Minnesota
    by 2 1/2
    225 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Minnesota
    (-2 1/2); Over

    New York @ Milwaukee


    Game 507-508
    October 22, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    New York
    110.942
    Milwaukee
    125.669
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Milwaukee
    by 14 1/2
    229
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Milwaukee
    by 11
    226
    Dunkel Pick:
    Milwaukee
    (-11); Over

    Chicago @ Dallas


    Game 509-510
    October 22, 2018 @ 8:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Chicago
    102.314
    Dallas
    113.996
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Dallas
    by 11 1/2
    234
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Dallas
    by 6
    229
    Dunkel Pick:
    Dallas
    (-6); Over

    Memphis @ Utah


    Game 511-512
    October 22, 2018 @ 9:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Memphis
    110.114
    Utah
    123.730
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Utah
    by 13 1/2
    223
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Utah
    by 10
    218
    Dunkel Pick:
    Utah
    (-10); Over

    Washington @ Portland


    Game 513-514
    October 22, 2018 @ 10:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Washington
    120.169
    Portland
    116.826
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Washington
    by 3 1/2
    231
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Portland
    by 5
    226
    Dunkel Pick:
    Washington
    (+5); Over

    San Antonio @ LA Lakers


    Game 515-516
    October 22, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    San Antonio
    115.459
    LA Lakers
    116.363
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Lakers
    by 1
    226
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    San Antonio
    by 1 1/2
    221 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Lakers
    (+1 1/2); Over

    Phoenix @ Golden State


    Game 517-518
    October 22, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Phoenix
    116.912
    Golden State
    126.348
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Golden State
    by 9 1/2
    215
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Golden State
    by 13 1/2
    228 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Phoenix
    (+13 1/2); Under
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-22-2018 at 12:27 PM.

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    Hot & Not Report
    by YouWager

    Week of October 22nd

    In last week's piece the focus centered on College Football's Top 25 teams and how well or poorly they were doing against the spread. We had 10 ranked teams out on the road this weekend, and after that spot being so bad for the ranked squads basically all year, it was still a losing mark for them at 4-6 ATS in Week 8, but many of the big boys like Alabama, Michigan, and Oklahoma stepped up and accounted for three of the four ATS victories.

    The headline from this past weekend in College Football is all about second-ranked Ohio State's blowout loss at Purdue as it's now two straight weeks that the No. 2 team in the country has been knocked off. The Clemson Tigers slide into that No. 2 role as of now and wouldn't you know it, just as all this talk ramps up about yet another Alabama/Clemson playoff meeting, Clemson finds themselves in just the awful role of being ranked second in the country and out on the road as a big road favorite vs an unranked squad. Last week's piece talked all about the benefits of fading ranked teams away from home, and while Florida State hasn't lived up to expectations at all in 2018, chances are they'll be at or near their best this weekend vs Clemson.

    However, for this week, it's time to change things up a bit and check in on the first week of action in the NBA, as I know basketball bettors have anxiously been waiting for this season to start. And while we are still just a week or so into the year, most teams have had the chance to play two or three games and some interesting league-wide trends have come to light.

    So that's what I'll be taking a look at here:

    Who's Hot

    Five Expected Bottom-Feeders with no chance at an NBA Title this year; 12-3 ATS


    The NBA has, and will always be a star-driven league simply because of the nature of the game. One or two top tier players in basketball can easily take control of a game in basketball relative to other team sports like football or hockey where really only the collective effort of the team produces desired results consistently. That means that the NBA is one where bettors (and casual fans) generally know that the NBA title is really only going to be won by 5-8 teams depending, making the other 20+ organizations nothing more than “filler” in regards to championship aspirations. It's why you get some very, very big futures numbers on these projected bottom-feeders to win it all prior to the year. This year was no different as there were 12 NBA teams that had about +30000 or greater odds to win it all.

    That's nearly half the league that virtually has no chance at a highly successful year in terms of outright wins, but through a week of action on the hardwood, five of those teams have stepped up and produced a 12-3 ATS mark so far. Charlotte (3-0 ATS), New York (3-0 ATS), Cleveland (2-1 ATS), Orlando (2-1 ATS) and Sacramento (2-1 ATS) have been great wagers so far, as they've exemplified the saying of the point spread being the great equalizer.

    Chances are we don't see these ATS runs last a lengthy amount of time, but I would not be surprised to see a few of these teams (along with some of the other projected “bottom feeders”) to end up finishing among the leaders in the NBA this year in terms of their ATS record. Monday's nine-game slate has Charlotte, New York, and Orlando all on the road and all catching +9 or greater on the spread. So don't say I didn't warn you if you've already, or are thinking about laying all that chalk against those hot ATS teams if those squads do continue to cash tickets.

    Who's Not

    Western Conference Title Favorites (Golden State, LAL, Houston, OKC) ATS; 2-9 ATS


    On the other side of the coin, we've got the projected championship contenders this year limping out of the gate and burning ATS wagers left, right, and center.

    Golden State, Houston, the Lakers, and OKC, came into the 2018 season as the most likely teams to come out of the Western Conference this year, with Golden State leading the way against at about -200 to win it all. Houston was priced in the +850 range, while L.A (+1000), and OKC (+3000) were given outside shots by bookmakers.

    Now, everyone knows that these four teams are absolutely loaded with talent, as the four of them currently employ probably 90% of the top players in this league. You've got LeBron James, James Harden, CP3, Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and the entire Warriors staring lineup, all wearing one of those four jerseys and bringing plenty of support from fans (and betting markets) with them.

    Furthermore, if you look at the 2016 US Olympic Basketball roster, you'll see that half of that roster was composed of guys currently on either Golden State, L.A, Houston, or OKC. That percentage would have been much higher too if Harden, Westbrook, CP3, and LeBron didn't withdraw from consideration, and Steph Curry wasn't hurt at the time. I mean, there's a case to be made that if there was another Olympic tournament this year, the entire US squad could come from just these four Western Conference teams.

    Yet, as I said before, the point spread is always the great equalizer, and because of talent, name brand recognition, and perception, all four of these teams have been highly overvalued through the first week of play. That's what a 2-9 ATS record shows, especially when those two total ATS victories came in matchups where someone was guaranteed to cover the spread when two of these four teams squared off against one another (Golden State vs OKC, Houston vs LAL). That means that effectively, these four teams are a combined 0-7 ATS so far this year, which is probably the opposite of what many that may be newer to NBA betting would expect. But market perception forces oddsmakers to always shade the spreads towards these heavily favored/popular teams, and results show that as fearful as it may seem to bet against powerhouses like LeBron, Houston, or Golden State, those plays do tend to make cash.

    After all, Golden State has owned this league with four straight NBA Finals appearances and three titles the past few years. But the past two seasons the Warriors have basically been a losing ATS wager – 40-39-3 ATS in 2016-17 and 34-47-1 ATS last year – as they just have a tough time cashing on these lofty numbers. Heck, the three worst teams against the spread last year were Cleveland, Oklahoma City, and Golden State, so it's not like fading overvalued lines/players/teams has only worked through a week of the 2018 season.

    These are all things to keep in mind as you go forward with your NBA betting this year, because the point spreads on teams like the Warriors and Rockets aren't likely to get much lower than they are now. These teams will eventually find their rhythm a bit and start piling up SU wins, but for my money, I'd always tend to lean towards fading these powerhouse NBA squads simply because of the inflated prices.

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    Games to Watch - Week 2
    By YouWager

    We are still in the very early stages of the new NBA season, but it has already become clear that there are going to be some changes this season. The Cleveland Cavaliers are, as expected winless without LeBron, although the same can be said for the Lakers, the team he moved to.

    The Toronto Raptors look like the class of the East in the early going, while the Denver Nuggets are the surprise leaders at the top of the West after 3 games. All of this may well change in the coming months, but it sure has been fun to see the NBA back in business.

    Let’s look ahead to the next few days to pick out the best games on the NBA schedule this week with odds, picks and predictions.

    Monday - San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers

    The Spurs are no longer the dominant team that they were over the past decade or so, but they are still a team that should be fighting for a playoff spot this season in the Western Conference. They are currently sitting at 1-1 in the early going and start this week with a trip to LA to face a Lakers team still looking for their first win in the LeBron James era. It was always asking too much for James to come in and turn this team around overnight, so fans are going to need to put a cap on their expectations until this team gels. I think the Lakers might still be winless at the end of this one.

    Wednesday - Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks

    While all the talk in the Eastern Conference has been about the Raptors and the Celtics, the 76ers and Bucks are a pair of teams with more than enough talent to do a little damage. The Bucks are 2-0 to start the season, while the 76ers have rebounded nicely after getting pounded by the Boston Celtics in their season opener. These two split their 4-game regular season series last year, with the home team coming away with the win in each of those games. If that trend holds, look for the Bucks to get the win.

    Thursday - Boston Celtics at Oklahoma City Thunder

    The Boston Celtics are among the favorites to win the Eastern Conference this season and they certainly made a big statement early on with a huge win over the Philadelphia 76ers. They split their next two games, though, and are now sitting at 2-1 on the season. Just before we hit the weekend, the Celtics will be on the road to face a Thunder team coming into this week with an 0-3 record. OKC were forced to start the season without the services of Russell Westbrook, but the big man is now back, so look for their fortunes to change. The Celtics won both meetings last season and I like them again here.

    Friday - Los Angeles Clippers at Houston Rockets

    It was a down year for the Clippers last season, but they have quickly shown that they are ready and willing to compete this year, going 2-1 to start the season, courtesy of back to back wins to close out the opening week of the season. Things have not gone as smoothly for the Rockets, as they are 1-2 and sitting below the playoff line. They had a chippy night versus the Lakers, with a minor scuffle leading to suspensions for some of the players involved. The Rockets will launch sooner than later, starting with a win here.

  9. #9
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    By: Monique Vág


    Suspensions hurt

    Following ejections after Saturday night’s altercation between the Lakers and Rockets, suspensions are finalized. Lakers forward Brandon Ingram is suspended for four games, alongside teammate Rajon Rondo for three games. Houston guard Chris Paul served game one of his two-game suspension Sunday.

    The Rockets certainly missed Paul’s 3-point shot and playmaking abilities in their 115-112 loss to the Clippers Sunday night. Their next game is Thursday versus the Utah Jazz at Vivant Smart Home Arena and that one really hurts the Rockets, as Utah narrowly missed losing to the Warriors and should enter the contest at 2-1.

    The Lakers find themselves as small underdogs at home to the San Antonio Spurs tonight. Although the suspensions to Ingram and Rondo are not as detrimental as losing a superstar point guard, losing two players who logged close to 30 minutes in both games certainly hurts the depth and growing chemistry of this team. The Lakers might be a good fade over the next four games as they find themselves at home to the Spurs, traveling to Phoenix, at home versus the Nuggets and then at San Antonio.


    Duplicating success

    To say Washington’s game with Portland looms as a must-win is a bit of an overstatement this early in the season, but with a lookahead to Golden State, the Wizards are going to have to find their stroke, and it starts with Bradley Beal, who’s been efficient over the first two games.

    Last year versus the Blazers, the Wizards shooting guard put up 26 points in their first meeting with three made 3-pointers. But his best game was their second matchup of the year, where he shot 21 of 37, including 5 of 12 from beyond the arc for a season high 51 points. Although these two matchups were without John Wall in the lineup, Beal is continuing to get good looks this season, and has been shooting the ball well. Look into taking Beal Over 21.5 points.


    New team, same success

    Newly-acquired DeMar DeRozan has been a factor during his first two games in a Spurs’ uniform, scoring 28 points in each outing and shooting 50 percent from the field. He’s been a huge contributor on plays away from the ball as well, averaging 6.5 assists per game - three more assists per game than his career average.

    The Spurs should find success versus a depleted Lakers team. Look into taking DeRozan’s total Over 32.5 points, rebounds, and assists.


    Rebounding prowess

    Indiana is a mid-pack defensive team that ranks in the Top 5 in the Association defending small forwards and point guards. While the Pacers are strong across the board defensively, they are particularly weak defending the interior, allowing centers to average 22.6 points a night.

    Last year, the Pacers were among the worst at surrendering offensive rebounds with 10.1 per game. This plays into the Timberwolves Karl Anthony Towns’ strengths, as his his career average is 11.6 rebounds per game. In 82 games last season, Towns' rebounding total came in under 10 boards only 13 times. Take KAT's Over 33.5 points, rebounds, and assists.


    High-scoring affair

    Through the first 35 games of the NBA season, the Over is 27-12 overall - hitting at more than 69 percent. With the increase in scoring, it's no surprise that 3-point attempts are up from 29 per game in 2017-18 to 31 per game this year.

    Most notably with the high scores across the league, the pace of the game has seen a massive increase: 96.4 possessions per game in 2016-17, 97.3 in 2017-18, and 102.1 early in 2018-19.

    In the Suns and Warriors matchup, both teams rank in the Top 10 in terms of possessions per game with 103.6 and 102.3, respectively. With an increased pace, more shot attempts are made and the total possessions per game increases. Look into taking the first half Over (115) or the Over for the full game (227.5) in a matchup which should see plenty of points.

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