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Thread: Wednesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/17

  1. #1
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    Default Wednesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/17

    Trends and Indexes

    Wednesday, October 17

    Good Luck on day #290 of 2018!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

    Six top college football teams, in terms of Las Vegas bookmakers’ ranking:

    — Alabama 137.3

    — Clemson 128.3

    — Ohio State 127.1

    — Michigan 124.8

    — Georgia 124.0

    — Oklahoma 123.8

    **********

    Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings…….

    13) Buffalo Bills’ rookie QB Josh Allen has an injured elbow, may need Tommy John surgery, which would obviously finish him for this season; best-case scenario is that he’ll miss several weeks, which leaves newly-signed Derek Anderson or Nathan Peterman as the new starter.

    Word out of Buffalo is that the Bills’ players don’t want Peterman playing, probably because they prefer winning- he’s thrown 10 INT’s in 82 career passes.

    12) Ohio State’s star DE Nick Bosa has withdrawn from college and will prepare for next spring’s NFL Draft; Bosa was injured anyway and probably wouldn’t have returned until next month at the earliest, so the announcement wasn’t a big surprise.

    11) Tampa Bay Buccaneers told defensive coordinator Mike Smith to take a hike Monday, after Bucs allowed 40-21-30-48-34 points in their first five games. Only once in five games did the Bucs hold an opponent under 8.2 yards/pass attempt- they had zero takeaways in their last two games, just five for the season (-7 TO ratio).

    10) Not only are Titans-Chargers playing in England Sunday, they’re playing at 9:30am ET, which is 6:30am for Charger fans in California. Whats the point of that?

    Last week’s Colorado-USC game ended around 2:20am ET; if that happens again this week, not a lot of time to sleep before the 9:30 kickoff. Guess I’ll just have to sleep faster.

    9) David Price allowed four runs in less than five innings Sunday night, and got a standing ovation as he walked to the dugout; the bar isn’t real high for Price these days in Beantown.

    8) This is the definition of a bad day:

    Police in Bristol, TN say a 76-year old man was run over with a lawn mower while trying to kill his son with a chainsaw- the older man had to have his leg amputated.

    Can’t we all just get along?

    7) Teddy Valentine is out as a Big 14 basketball ref; he’ll still work AAC, ACC and SEC games, but a guy who has worked 28 NCAA tournaments and 10 Final Fours isn’t good enough anymore to work in the Big 14.

    6) 20 years ago, when he was coaching the Lakers, Pat Riley trademarkedthe term “three-peat,” so if Golden State wins its third straight NBA title next spring, Riley will cash in on it, too.

    There have been three “3-peats” since Riley trademarked the term; the Jordan-Bulls did it twice, and the Shaq-Kobe Lakers did it, too.

    Random stats: Warriors led the NBA last year, making 39.1% of their 3’s and 81.5% of their foul shots.

    5) Derek Carr threw 31 passes for Oakland Sunday in their 27-3 loss to Seattle in London; only five of those 31 passes travelled more than five yards downfield, and he completed only two of those five passes. No bueno.

    4) Josh McCown and Julius Peppers are the only two players still active from the 2002 NFL Draft.

    3) I don’t give a rat’s ass about the royal family, and I’m not sure why anyone does. The young lady who recently married the prince was on one of my favorite TV shows, Suits. Still don’t care about the royal family; what exactly do they even do?

    2) Interesting how crew chiefs are behind the plate for Games 3, 7 for divisional series, then World Series; Joe West doing the plate for Game 7 of the ALCS could be good theater.

    1) Patriots set an NFL record Sunday night; they’re the first team in the Super Bowl era to not punt or commit a penalty in an entire game- they scored 43 points at home but still couldn’t cover the spread. Awesome.

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    MLB
    Long Sheet

    Wednesday, October 17


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    MILWAUKEE (101 - 69) at LA DODGERS (97 - 74) - 5:05 PM
    WADE MILEY (L) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MILWAUKEE is 5-6 (+1.4 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
    6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.2 Units)

    WADE MILEY vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
    MILEY is 4-5 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.18 and a WHIP of 1.253.
    His team's record is 6-9 (-1.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-9. (-3.9 units)

    CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
    KERSHAW is 6-6 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 3.15 and a WHIP of 1.071.
    His team's record is 8-7 (-4.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-7. (-0.7 units)

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    BOSTON (113 - 56) at HOUSTON (107 - 61) - 8:35 PM
    RICK PORCELLO (R) vs. CHARLIE MORTON (R)
    Top Trends for this game.
    HOUSTON is 155-77 (+35.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
    BOSTON is 113-56 (+35.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
    BOSTON is 54-30 (+21.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
    BOSTON is 78-46 (+17.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
    BOSTON is 89-40 (+32.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
    BOSTON is 76-36 (+23.7 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
    BOSTON is 44-30 (+13.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    HOUSTON is 48-36 (-26.6 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
    HOUSTON is 23-21 (-23.3 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
    HOUSTON is 30-29 (-29.9 Units) against the money line in home games in night games this season.
    HOUSTON is 43-37 (-13.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    HOUSTON is 9-13 (-15.4 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BOSTON is 5-5 (+1.6 Units) against HOUSTON this season
    8 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+5.9 Units)

    RICK PORCELLO vs. HOUSTON since 1997
    PORCELLO is 2-1 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 5.19 and a WHIP of 1.384.
    His team's record is 4-2 (+2.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (+0.0 units)

    CHARLIE MORTON vs. BOSTON since 1997
    MORTON is 3-1 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 4.32 and a WHIP of 1.521.
    His team's record is 4-1 (+2.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-1. (+2.9 units)

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    MLB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Wednesday, October 17


    National League
    Brewers @ Dodgers (Series tied, 2-2)

    Miley is 0-0, 3.63 in his last four starts (17.1 IP); under is 4-2 in his last six starts. Team in his starts: 13-5, 8-2 road He’s allowed one run in three starts (18.2 IP) vs LA this season.
    5-inning record: 11-5-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-13

    Kershaw is 1-1, 5.63 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four starts. Team in his starts: 17-11, 7-6 home. He is 1-2, 6.60 vs Milwaukee this season.
    5-inning record: 16-8-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 4-28

    Dodgers won nine of their last 12 games overall, nine of last 11 at home. Under is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. LA is in playoffs for 6th year in row; they lost 7th game of World Series LY. Dodgers’ last WS title was in 1988.

    Milwaukee won 13 of its last 15 games; they’ve won seven of last eight road games. Under is 7-1 in their last eight games. Brewers are in playoffs for first time since 2011- they lost Game 7 of the 1982 World Series.

    American League
    Boston @ Houston (Red Sox lead series, 2-1)

    Porcello is 2-0, 4.76 in his last five starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six road starts. Team in his starts: 23-11, 12-7 road.
    Porcello is 1-0, 4.50 in three games (2 starts) vs Houston this year.
    5-inning record: 22-10-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 8-34

    Morton is pitching for first time since Sept 30; he is 4-o, 4.85 in his last seven starts- under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Team in his starts: 18-12, 10-6 home.
    Morton is 1-1, 6.97 vs Boston this season.
    5-inning record: 17-6-7 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-30

    Houston is 12-3 in its last 15 games; they won four of their four playoff games, with last three going over total. Red Sox won five of their last seven games; they scored 36 runs in their last five games. Over is 9-2 in their last 11 games.

    Red Sox are in playoffs for third year in row; they won World Series in 2013. Astros won their first WS title LY, in their second try (’05); they’re in playoffs for third time in four years.




    MLB
    Weather Report

    Wednesday, October 17







    MLB

    Wednesday, October 17


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    Trend Report
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    Milwaukee Brewers
    Milwaukee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Milwaukee is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 8 games
    Milwaukee is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
    Milwaukee is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games on the road
    Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
    Milwaukee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Milwaukee's last 15 games when playing LA Dodgers
    Milwaukee is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Milwaukee's last 10 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
    Los Angeles Dodgers
    LA Dodgers is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
    LA Dodgers is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
    LA Dodgers is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    LA Dodgers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games at home
    LA Dodgers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
    LA Dodgers is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Dodgers's last 15 games when playing Milwaukee
    LA Dodgers is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Dodgers's last 10 games when playing at home against Milwaukee


    Boston Red Sox
    Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Boston's last 12 games
    Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Boston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 8 games on the road
    Boston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Boston's last 9 games when playing Houston
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Boston's last 8 games when playing on the road against Houston
    Houston Astros
    Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Houston is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games
    Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games at home
    Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Boston
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Houston's last 9 games when playing Boston
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games when playing at home against Boston


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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-17-2018 at 11:35 AM.

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    MLB
    Dunkel

    Wednesday, October 17



    Milwaukee @ LA Dodgers

    Game 911-912
    October 17, 2018 @ 5:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Milwaukee
    (Miley) 16.735
    LA Dodgers
    (Kershaw) 20.296
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Dodgers
    by 3 1/2
    5
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Dodgers
    -170
    7
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Dodgers
    (-170); Under

    Boston @ Houston


    Game 913-914
    October 17, 2018 @ 8:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Boston
    (Porcello) 18.258
    Houston
    (Morton) 16.867
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Boston
    by 1 1/2
    9
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Houston
    -145
    8 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Boston
    (+125); Over
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-17-2018 at 11:36 AM.

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    POSTSEASON STARTER STAT OF THE DAY

    Wade Miley, Milwaukee Brewers (5-2, 2.57 ERA): There's a red-hot lefty working Game 5 of the NLCS – and it isn't that guy from Los Angeles. Miley has been terrific in the postseason for the Brewers, holding the Rockies and Dodgers to five hits over 10 1/3 scoreless innings while issuing just one walk. Miley has been firtually mistake-free over his past nine starts overall, failing to allow a single home run over that time while issuing more than one free pass just once in that span.

    Look for Miley to keep the Dodgers off-balance yet again, making the under play on both Los Angeles' run (+105) and hit totals (+115) intriguing options Wednesday night.


    Early Deadlock?

    There hasn't been much scoring in the Dodgers-Brewers series the first time through the order. The teams have combined to score just three runs over the first two innings of their four games to date, and Kershaw (2.60 ERA through first two innings) and Miley (2.97) are not good bets to blow up early in Wednesday's encounter.

    Given how tightly these teams have played in the early going, bettors might want to consider wagering on the "tied after two innings" prop, which pays out at an intriguing +140.


    Flying Solo

    When the first home run of the game leaves Minute Maid Park, there's a good chance it will come with nobody on base. Of the 27 home runs Porcello has surrendered this season, 18 have been of the solo variety. And Morton's splits are even more extreme, with 16 of the 18 home runs he has allowed in 2018 coming with the bases empty.

    These teams are loaded with home-run threats, especially at the top of the order – so we recommend taking the first home run to be a solo blast (-135).


    Umpire Trends

    Jim Wolf is working behind home plate for Game 4 of the NLCS – and that's good news for the Dodgers, if recent trends hold. The home team has won six consecutive games with Wolf calling balls and strikes for the Brewers, and is 5-1 in his past six home plate assignments overall. Also of note, the over is 4-0 in his past four games behind the dish.

    Mark Carlson will be doing the honors for the Red Sox-Astros game Wednesday night. There doesn't appear to be an edge in favor of either team; the Astros are 5-1 SU in his past six games calling balls and strikes, while the Red Sox are 5-2 SU in his past seven home plate assignments. The over has cashed in five of his past six games behind the plate.

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