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Thread: NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 7 (Thur. Oct. 18 - Mon. Oct. 22)

  1. #16
    Join Date
    Nov 2004



    It’s our favorite day as Thursday marks the official start of the football week and, as per tradition, we kick things off with a TNF prop bet (or maybe two). Denver quarterback Case Keenum’s stats over the last two games look great on paper. Two weeks ago, at the Jets, he put up 377 passing yards and followed it up the next week with 322 at home against the Rams. But those two games had something in common: The Broncos were chasing points all afternoon. Against the Jets, Keenum made 51 pass attempts and last week he made 41 — his two highest totals of the season.

    The Broncos aren’t built to be a passing team. Certainly not with Keenum at QB. Their strength lies in pounding the ball with Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay, and, luckily for Denver, Arizona ranks 31st in the NFL in rushing yards against, allowing 151.2 per game. Denver is only going to a heavy passing attack when it falls behind by a lot and, as a 1-point road favorite, that’s unlikely to happen on Thursday night. We don’t expect a ton of passing attempts by Keenum so we’re going to back the Under 275.5 on his passing yards total.


    Alright, one more for tonight. Arizona running back David Johnson hasn’t exactly lit up the scoreboards yet this season, but he does have six touchdowns on the season and has scored at least one in every game except Week 2. He has also been heavily involved as of late with at 65 touches over the last three weeks, with 14 of those coming in the red zone.

    As for the Broncos, well, they’re the first team in NFL history to allow a running back to go for 200 yards in back-to-back games. They rank 29th in rush defense DVOA and dead last in rushing yards allowed per game at 161.3. To say the Broncos struggle against the run would be a massive understatement and we’re backing Johnson to score a touchdown at any time.


    Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill (shoulder) has been ruled out for Week 7 after being a surprise late scratch last week. Brock Osweiler got the start against Chicago and will again this week as Miami hosts Detroit. Brocktober looked good against a very tough Bears defense and had an especially nice connection with receiver Albert Wilson, who went off for 155 yards and two touchdowns on six receptions.

    Wilson is barely a household name but is quickly becoming Miami’s top receiver. He had nine targets last week and now leads the receiving corps in targets on the season. He has also averaged 28.7 passing routes per game over the last three games after averaging just 12.3 in the first three weeks of the season. It’s obvious that the offensive coaching staff is a big fan of Wilson and last week proved that Osweiler likes him as well. We’re expecting another good game from him and we’re backing the Over on his receiving yards total.


    Running back Dalvin Cook (hamstring) practiced in full on Wednesday ahead of the Vikings’ Week 7 game at the New York Jets. We heard similar news at this time last week and actually backed Cook to score a touchdown at any time, but that became a push when Cook was inactive. Assuming Cook is ready to go this Sunday, we’re going with the same bet for the same reason: the Vikings need to get some sustained momentum going in the running game.

    Minnesota ranks 28th in the league in rushing yards per game at 87.3, which is actually a decent improvement after being ranked 31st last week. We speculated last week that the Vikings would make a commitment to the run and they did, with Latavius Murray getting 24 attempts for 155 yards and a touchdown. They gained a little momentum in the run game last week and they’ll try to keep it up this week by getting Cook into the end zone. We’re backing him to score a touchdown at any time.


    The Bears have a new coaching staff that is trying to install a new offensive philosophy and there’s a trend that we’re noticing: running back Jordan Howard has seen a declining percentage of the offensive snaps in every game this season. It’s clear that coach Matt Nagy simply prefers Tarik Cohen in the passing game as Howard has just two targets over the last two games while Cohen has 17.

    This week, Chicago hosts New England as a 3-point home underdog and with a game total of 49. The Pats are averaging 39.7 points per game and the Bears are going to need to score to keep pace. That means more passing and Cohen is clearly the preferred option in the passing game. We don’t see a big role for Howard on Sunday and we’re taking the Under on his rushing yards total.

  2. #17
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    TNF - Broncos at Cardinals
    Tony Mejia

    Denver (-1.5, 42) at Arizona, 8:20 pm ET, FOX/NFLN

    Tampa Bay opened the week by letting go of defensive coordinator Mike Smith, who presided over the NFL’s second-worst defense and played scapegoat for a rough start compounded by the team being unable to rally against Atlanta in Jameis Winston’s first start.

    A number of quarterbacks who opened the season as starters are already holding clipboards and signaling in plays instead of executing him, but desperation is sure to set in now that we’re into Week 7.

    In Denver, there’s already talk that Vance Joseph could be coaching his final game given the bye week that lies ahead and the fact a loss would drop the Broncos to 7-16 under his watch. Since a dip in the team’s level on defense has played a role in the demise and that’s Joseph’s specialty, his seat has gotten uncomfortably warm. Denver has surrendered 23 or more points in all but one game this season and has allowed a running back to top the 200-yard mark against them in consecutive weeks.

    Case Keenum hasn’t escaped criticism either. The quarterback brought into stabilize the position has been intercepted at least once in every game this season. There was a play last week where he fumbled after getting the ball slapped out of his hands while dropping back, picked it up and threw a pass right into a defender’s arms. Rams corner Nickell Robey-Coleman dropped the sure interception, but the play was telling given that it came on Denver’s first possession against an undefeated juggernaut that the Broncos couldn’t afford to make mistakes against if they were to have a chance.

    It would be fair to say he hasn’t inspired confidence with his flippant attitude towards protecting the football, leading many to wonder whether backup Chad Kelly is ready to go yet. That question will be asked openly on Thursday night if Keenum fails to get it together in Glendale.

    The Cardinals have only won once this season, which led first-year head coach Steve Wilks to address his own situation, making it clear that he understands nothing is guaranteed.

    "I would say all our jobs are in jeopardy, including mine, if we don't win," Wilks said when asked if he was contemplating making a change on the offensive side of the ball since coordinator Mike McCoy is having little success despite moving on to a second quarterback.

    The Cardinals rank last in yards per game, yards per play, rushing yards per game, rushing yards per play, first downs per game, third-down percentage and average time of possession. Arizona is next-to-last among 32 NFL teams in points per game, yards per play and passing yards per game.

    Sam Bradford was unable to get anything accomplished as the Cards were outscored 58-6 over their first two games and ended up getting pulled in favor of rookie Josh Rosen in a winnable game against the Bears in Week 3. That didn’t accomplish much besides getting the UCLA prospect’s feet wet against one of the NFL most feared defenses at the time since Khalil Mack was holding court throughout September.

    Rosen has had some nice moments since taking over full-time with proper preparation over the course of the week, but he hasn’t been able to sustain drives. Arizona has only scored more than 17 points in a single game once this season, pulling out a 28-18 victory over San Francisco to open October. That scoring output is misleading since the Cards scored on a 23-yard fumble return to really swing a tight game and then capitalized on a short field for the second time to put the game away. The only offensive score to finish off a drive of over 26 yards came on a 75-yard pass from Rosen to fellow rookie Christian Kirk when the game was still in its early stages, so there really haven’t been many sustained drives to indicate progress is being made.

    Arizona scored 17 points last week in a loss at the Vikings, but six of them came courtesy of a Budda Baker scoop-and-score. Only one of the Cardinals’ first eight drives lasted more than five plays and that resulted in a field goal. Larry Fitzgerald, Sr., a prominent Minnesota sports writer, tweeted out accurately that his famous son had never gone six games without a touchdown and called Wilks out for putting the offense in “questionable hands.”

    It seems pretty clear that if McCoy can’t get results out of the team at home here, he’ll be out of a job. Wilks isn’t going to continue jeopardizing his own future without a pre-emptive strike. It’s also rather obvious that Joseph has to get his defense to rise up and ensure that Arizona’s offensive issues aren’t fixed against his group, once among the league’s most feared units.

    Keenum will have to protect the football or risk being replaced since falling to 2-5 would be a disaster given preseason expectations. Even last year’s team won three of their first four before dropping eight straight.

    Welcome to Week 7, everyone. The intensity is being ratcheted up a few notches and somebody is likely getting fired or demoted after this.

    Denver Broncos
    Season win total: 7 (Over -180, Under +150)
    Odds to win AFC West: 25/1 to 50/1
    Odds to win AFC: 50/1 to 90/1
    Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1 to 200/1

    Arizona Cardinals
    Season win total: 6 (Over -130, Under +110)
    Odds to win NFC West: OFF to OFF
    Odds to win NFC: 1000/1 to 1000/1
    Odds to win Super Bowl: 2000/1 to 2000/1


    The NFC West winner future has been off the board at the Westgate Superbook for a couple of weeks now with the Rams running away with it. Kansas City is in the process of doing the same in the AFC West, though the Chargers have kept hope alive. The Bronocs were just 4/1 to win the division to open the season. Arizona's NFC West odds pre-Week 1 were 12/1.

    Arizona joins division mate San Francisco as the biggest longshots to win February's Super Bowl (2,000/1). The Cardinals were 100/1 to win it all prior to the season opener. Denver was 40-to-1 to win the Super Bowl entering the season.

    As far as this matchup is concerned, the Broncos were installed as a 2.5-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced, opening the week there but moving down to -1 before climbing back up to where it currently resides in the -1.5/2 range. Total numbers are available below.

    Denver opened at -120 on the money line, climbed up as high as -140 at a number of shops and is now most widely available at -125. If you like the home 'dog outright, a payout on an Arizona win will get you +105 or even money, depending on the shop.


    Joseph and defensive coordinator Joe Woods saw the Broncos’ run defense improve from 28th to fifth last season, so finding a way to curb 2018’s regression is a must. A defense that finished third in total yards allowed last year will have to overcome the absence of LB Shane Ray (knee), corner Adam Jones (thigh) and safety Dymonte Thomas (chest), but will have the services of defensive tackle Derek Wolfe to help anchor the front. Jones’ absence was a bit of a surprise and hinders a group that lost Aqib Talib to the Rams in the offseason and hasn’t been adequately able to replace his on-field contributions and energy. Punter Marquette King was cut this week after landing on IR due to an ab strain that cut his stint short after he came on board following Jon Gruden’s decision not to bring him back to the Raiders.

    Arizona’s biggest issues come up front, which isn’t a good sign for an offense already struggling to make inroads. Guard Justin Pugh hopes to play through a hand injury and will test it out pre-game, which is an improvement from the ‘doubtful’ distinction he carried but doesn’t mean the Cards can count on him just yet. With fellow guard Mike Iupati (back) already ruled out, Arizona could be forced to rely on backups throughout the interior line since they already lost projected starting center AQ Shipley this preseason. The Cardinals will be facing depth issues against a Denver defensive front that is capable of wearing an offensive line down. While Patrick Peterson can still be counted on as a shutdown corner despite rumors he’s available with the team likely rebuilding on the run, there are still concerns in the secondary. Safety Tre Boston (ribs) has been ruled out while corner Jamar Taylor will also be a game-time call.


    The number here opened at 40 at many shops but has been steadily bet up to it's current spot. Bovada went up to 43 on Thursday morning while most had the number between 41.5 and 42.5.

    The 'under' prevailed in Arizona's first four games this season but has been defeated in the last two since last week's 27-17 loss crept just over the 43.5 the total closed at. Denver became the first team to hold L.A. below 30 points this season to deliver the under on Sunday. The low-side is 4-2 in Broncos' games in 2018 despite their issues stopping the run. The under was 7-8-1 in Denver games last season but went 9-7 in games involving Arizona.

    RECENT MEETINGS (Denver 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS last 5; OVER 5-0)

    10/5/14 Denver 41-20 vs. Arizona (DEN -7.5, 48)
    12/12/10 Arizona 43-13 vs. Denver (AZ +4, 44)
    12/17/06 Denver 37-20 at Arizona (DEN -2.5, 44)
    12/29/02 Denver 37-7 vs. Arizona (DEN -13.5, 42.5)
    9/23/01 Denver 38-17 at Arizona (DEN -8.5, 45)

  3. #18
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    Ugly Dogs - Week 7
    Tom Wilkinson

    If you want to win money betting NFL games then you need to go against the grain. One of the ways to do that is to take teams that no one else wants to bet. I call them ugly dogs and last week those ugly dogs went 4-0 against the spread and in the last two weeks they are sizzling 9-1 ATS. We have four plays for this week that we’ll be backing and taking the points. Let’s look at the Week 7 ugly dog picks.

    Tennessee Titans +6.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers

    The Tennessee Titans are somehow 3-3 on the season, but their offense is simply sickening. The Titans have scored 87 points in six games this season and only the Bills and Cardinals have scored fewer points. The Titans now have to travel over to London and face a Los Angeles team that is rolling. The Chargers have won their last three games and now they are laying less than a TD against a Tennessee team that is struggling to score.

    The public will probably be all over the Chargers in this game, so it would not surprise me to see the line go up to seven before the early kickoff on Sunday. Going against the public and taking a team that few people will want to bet is what the ugly dog column is all about. I’ll take the points with the Titans in this one.

    Buffalo Bills +8.5 at Indianapolis Colts

    The Bills are 2-4 on the season, while the Colts are 1-5, but the Bills definitely fit the criteria of an ugly dog this week as they will be going with either Nathan Peterman or Derek Anderson as their starting quarterback, as Josh Allen is out. The Bills have looked awful with Peterman under center and bettors are pounding the Colts. The Colts have been scoring plenty of points but they haven’t been able to stop opposing teams.

    The Colts shouldn’t have as much of an issue this week against a Buffalo team that will be starting a backup quarterback. Even though the Bills have a better straight up record they are definitely an ugly dog this week and we will take them plus the points.

    San Francisco 49ers +10 vs. Los Angeles Rams

    The 49ers are once again an ugly dog as they face the Rams this week. The 49ers didn’t win last week in Green Bay but they easily covered the big spread and nearly won outright. The 49ers were getting nine points last week on the road at Green Bay and this week they are getting double-digits at home against the unbeaten Rams. The public is going to be backing the Rams, but the 49ers delivered for us last week as an ugly dog and they could do so again.

    San Francisco showed some offense against the Packers and the Rams defense hasn’t been great so maybe we can get a backdoor cover. We’ll take the big points and go with the 49ers as an ugly dog.

    New York Giants +6 at Atlanta Falcons

    Does anyone want a part of the Giants with Eli Manning at quarterback? The Giants are 1-5 and have looked awful on offense with Manning under center. The Giants are a complete train wreck with Odell Beckham Jr. complaining constantly and with a defense that rarely makes big plays. The Falcons are nothing special, but bettors still believe in Atlanta and at least the Falcons have an offense. Atlanta is playing at home and they should be able to score plenty of points.

    Why is the line only six points? The Giants have looked bad and Atlanta is playing at home on a Monday night. The public will be backing the Falcons in this game and that helps out cause. It is definitely ugly taking Eli Manning and the Giants but that is what it is all about with the ugly dogs. We’ll take the Giants plus the points in this one.

  4. #19
    Join Date
    Nov 2004



    The Jaguars defense has stunk the last two weeks. Two weeks ago, it got lit up for 30 points by Patrick Mahomes and co. at Arrowhead and last week, Dak Prescott and friends did their thing and dropped a 40 spot at AT&T Stadium. You could actually spin the Chiefs game by saying that they held Kansas City to its second-lowest point total of the season and the Cowboys game...well, sometimes you just have to throw a game out and this is one of those situations.

    This week the Jags return home to face Houston and there’s one market that jumps off the table: Deshaun Watson’s passing yards total is set just north of 300 yards. So far at home, Jacksonville held Tom Brady to 234 yards, the Titans QBs to 108 yards, and Sam Darnold to 167 yards. Watson has had a couple of games with big yardage totals this season, but he’s coming off a 177-yard home performance against Buffalo. There’s also the fact that the Jags pressure the QB at the highest rate in the NFL, while the Texans allow pressure at the highest rate in the NFL. We’re expecting a big bounce-back performance from the Jaguars defense this week and it’s going to come at Watson’s expense. Take the Under on his passing yards total.


    We’re feeling so good about the Jaguars chance of a big defensive performance that we’re going to fade Houston’s running game as well. This analysis, however, is mostly to do with just how bad Lamar Miller has been lately. Over his last three games, he hasn’t surpassed 50 rushing yards and is averaging just 2.7 yards per carry. The Jags are a very tough matchup, ranking sixth in rush defense DVOA even after being run over by Ezekiel Elliott for 106 yards (in that game that we’re forgetting about from last week). Miller looks to be destined for his third straight game below 50 rushing yards so we’re grabbing the Under on his rushing yards total.


    Running back Joe Mixon finds himself in a very nice spot on Sunday Night Football when the Bengals visit the Chiefs and a run defense that is giving up the sixth-most rushing yards per game at 127.8 and the third-most total yards to running backs per game at 193.2. Just last week the Chiefs were gashed for 217 total yards by Patriots running backs.

    Helping Mixon’s case is his usage and total production as he’s averaging 21 touches per game and has turned them into 125.5 total yards per game. Bengals coach Marvin Lewis tends to ride one running back and Mixon’s snap count has been 69 percent or higher in every game where he’s been healthy this season. The Bengals will want to run the ball as much as possible on Sunday night to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field and we’re thinking Mixon is in for a big game. We’re taking the Over on his combined rushing and receiving yards total.


    It’s easy to like Adam Thielen in any week as he leads NFL wide receivers in catches and yards. But he’s in an especially good situation on Sunday when the Vikings head to New York to face a Jets team who can’t stop slot receivers. So far in 2018, the Jets have allowed opposing receivers to catch an average of nine balls in the slot for an average of 96.3 yards per game.

    The inflated slot numbers are probably due to the fact that the Jets blitz at the fifth-highest in the league (30.3 percent of plays). It just so happens that Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins seems to prefer throwing against blitzing teams as only Drew Brees has more completions while throwing against the blitz in 2018. Things are positioned perfectly for Thielen to have another huge game on Sunday and we’re taking the Over 101.5 on his receiving yards total.


    If you’ve been reading this article regularly, you’d know that we’re big fans of George Kittle as we’ve taken Over bets for the 49ers tight end on three occasions (and won two of them). Kittle has quietly been one of the best tight ends in the league, ranking third in the NFL in both total receiving yards (429) and receiving yards per game (71.5). He did have an off game last week with just four catches for 30 yards but there are a couple of reasons why he should bounce back this week.

    First, he’s an integral part of the 49ers offense and his snap count has increased in every game so far, culminating at 93 percent last week at Green Bay. He also leads the team in targets (41) and is second in air yards (286). Second, teams target their tight ends 24.5 percent of the time when they play the Rams, which has led to L.A. giving up 5.3 receptions per game. San Francisco will likely have to throw a lot to keep up with the Rams and we’re liking the Over 4.5 for Kittle’s receptions total.

  5. #20
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    NFL Underdogs: Week 7 pointspread picks and predictions
    Covers Staff

    Is 39 really that old?

    If Jay-Z has taught us anything – and boy has he – it’s that 30 is the new 20. So, under that math, 39 is the new 29. But if you listened to the Monday Night Football crew gush over Drew Brees and his record-breaking effort in Week 5, 39 sounded more like the new 50… err… 49.

    ESPN’s play-by-play man Joe Tessitore (I loved you in Fight Night Round 3) and color analyst Jason Witten (God knows he’s trying) constantly praised Brees’ diet, training, and work ethic, en route to him capturing the all-time passing yards record. And the fact that Brees is 39 years old came up more than a few times, like it’s some sort of miracle he’s still performing at such a high level despite his advanced age. Granted, football years pretty much run neck-and-neck with dog years, so Brees is like 169, I guess?

    I turned 39 this week.

    While I still get out for the occasional game of ultimate frisbee (God knows I’m trying), my body is breaking down faster than the DC Cinematic Universe. If 39 is the new 29, then 19 is the new coked-up cheetah – because there’s no way I’m catching up to that young kid who just broke away for a huge toss-and-run down field. Good hustle guy.

    Brees is doing it for the not-so old guys out there. He’s powering a Saints offense putting up an NFL-best 36 points per game, and one that’s getting points as an underdog in Baltimore this Sunday. New Orleans is coming off the bye – allowing the franchise to settle down after Brees’ big night – and facing a Ravens defense ranked No. 1 in points allowed. Even if those stop-unit stats are a bit inflated.

    The Ravens have faced four opponents ranked 23rd, 26th, 30th, and 32nd in scoring – Cleveland, Denver, Tennessee, and Buffalo – with those teams combining for an average of just over 17 points per game.

    Baltimore also played Pittsburgh in Week 4 – a team that’s offense has benefitted from poor opposing defenses about as much as the Ravens defense has thrived against weak offenses. And in their only real challenge, the Ravens were rolled by the Bengals and their sixth-ranked scoring attack, losing 34-23 in Week 2.

    So, here’s to Drew Brees. You make we want to be a better 39-year-old. Or, at least you make we want to take the points with New Orleans this weekend. Let’s start there…

    New Orleans +3

    Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets (+3.5, 46)

    This is more a bet against the Vikings than a play on the Jets. Minnesota is facing its third road game in four weeks and has a massive matchup ahead on the calendar, hosting New Orleans in Week 8, which opens up the always-tasty “lookahead” spot.

    New York has won back-to-back games and is playing its third straight at home, with rookie Sam Darnold starting to look comfortable under center. I also like the Jets defense for all the chaos it can cause, ranked second in the league in takeaways with 15 (12 interceptions).

    N.Y. Jets +3.5

    Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-2, 41.5)

    Remember that amazing pee-wee football episode of The Simpsons (Bart Star, Episode No. 184), the one where Nelson throws it to himself. Yeah, that’s pretty much what Dak Prescott did against the Jaguars last week.

    Tired of waiting for his receiving corps to come around, Prescott took it upon himself to move the chains and scrambled for 81 yards in a 40-7 stunner as 3-point home dogs. It wasn’t only Dak’s legs doing the damage, either. He did finally find chemistry with Cole Beasley on nine grabs for 101 yards and two scores.

    The Cowboys have a bad habit of being two-faced home/away, but these divisional games bring out the best in the Boys, especially Prescott. He’s quietly torched Washington in his four career starts versus the Skins, going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in those games. The underdog is also a snarling 30-10 ATS in the past 40 meetings between these NFC East rivals.

    Dallas +2

    Last week: 3-0 ATS
    Season: 13-5 ATS

  6. #21
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    By: Brandon DuBreuil


    Cleveland traded running back Carlos Hyde to Jacksonville on Friday for a fifth-round pick. Hyde appears to be a short-term solution for the Jags while Leonard Fournette is out, though reports out of Jacksonville are that Hyde won’t play on Sunday. In Cleveland, rookie Nick Chubb will start and take the early-down work, while Duke Johnson will handle third-down duties.

    Though it’s difficult to predict how the Cleveland backfield will shake out without Hyde in the mix, Chubb makes for an intriguing case this week against a poor Tampa Bay defense that has given up a touchdown to an opposing running back in every game this season except for one. The Bucs will also be without Gerald McCoy after the Pro Bowl defensive tackle was ruled out on Friday. Chubb is in a solid spot for his first career start and we’re going to back to him score a touchdown at any time.


    In sticking with the Browns-Buccaneers game in the early slate on Sunday, we’re going to back the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft for the first time this season after fading him twice (and losing both times) earlier in the season. Baker Mayfield struggled last week (22 of 46, 238 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT) but that was against a tough Chargers defense that knew Mayfield was passing on pretty much every down after the Browns had fallen behind 21-3.

    Mayfield has an absolute dream spot on Sunday against Tampa Bay and a pass defense that has allowed the opposing quarterback to throw for over 300 yards in every single game in 2018. Mayfield loves throwing it deep and is averaging 9.5 air yards per attempt, eighth-most in the NFL. In his two starts prior to last week, Mayfield threw for 342 yards and 295 yards and he should be able to put up a big passing yards number once again this week. We’re taking the Over 290.5 on his passing yards total.


    Vikings running back Dalvin Cook has been ruled out of Sunday’s game at the Jets as he just can’t seem to shake his hamstring injury. The news comes as a bit of a surprise after he got a full practice in on Wednesday, only to sit out on Thursday. Latavius Murray will once again draw the start in his place and is coming off a huge performance last week where he rumbled for 155 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries.

    This week, Murray gets the Jets, a team with a significantly better pass defense (6th in DVOA) than rush defense (16th in DVOA). The Vikings had a rough start to the season with the running game but made significant strides with last week’s performance, bumping them from 31st to 28th in rushing yards per game. Coach Mike Zimmer will want to build on that momentum as he knows the Vikings aren’t going to be true contender’s in the NFC with a bottom-of-the-pack running attack. Murray should see lots of action again this week and we like him to score a touchdown at any time.


    Earlier in the week, Sean Payton talked about how Alvin Kamara’s lack of touches last game were because of how the game flowed. We strongly believe that Payton will have realized over the bye week that having his most explosive playmaker on the field for only 47 percent of the plays was a mistake and, for that reason, we’re backing him to score a touchdown at any time this week at Baltimore.

    Well, if we’re right in assuming that Kamara will play more, it’ll likely mean fewer snaps and fewer carries for Mark Ingram, who turned 18 carries into 73 yards against Washington in his first game back from suspension. Ingram averaged 4.1 yards per carry against Washington, which is an okay number, but he’ll be hard-pressed to match that against a Ravens defense allowing just 3.5 yards per carry on the season. At 3.5 yards per carry, it’ll take Ingram 17 touches to reach his rushing yards total and we don’t see him getting that many carries on Sunday. We’re fading Ingram this week and taking the Under 57.5 on his rushing yards total.


    Speaking of fading running backs, we’re going to do the same with Adrian Peterson this week as Washington hosts the Cowboys. AP has been maddeningly inconsistent this season with rushing totals of 96, 20, 120, 6, and 97. Assuming the trend holds this week, he’ll easily go Under his total this week — but bettors need a deeper analysis than that.

    So, we turn to the Cowboys defense, a unit that is quietly ranked fifth in rush defense DVOA. In addition, Dallas is allowing just 3.5 yards per carry, which is the second-best number in the NFL, and hasn’t allowed opposing running backs to reach 75 combined rushing yards in each of the past three games. One final note is that Chris Thompson is on track to return on Sunday, which should take a few touches away from Peterson. We’re taking the Under on his rushing yards total.

  7. #22
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    Essentials - Week 7
    Tony Mejia

    Tennessee vs. L.A. Chargers (-6.5/45.5) in London, 9:30 a.m. ET, CBS:
    The stereotypes about fog and rain can apply to London weather, but the forecast for Sunday’s encounter between the Chargers calls for sun and mild conditions. With that out of the way, the biggest variable will be the absence of L.A. standout running back Melvin Gordon, who is dealing with a hamstring injury and has been ruled out despite not originally appearing on the injury report until Friday. He’ll be replaced by Austin Ekeler and rookie Justin Jackson. Gordon has been fantastic over the past few weeks, scoring touchdowns in five straight games after being kept out of the end zone in the opener, so it’s no surprise that news of his absence has affected the spread, which is now back at 6.5 after looking like it would top 7 by kickoff.

    Titans safety Kenny Vaccaro was originally expected back to strengthen the Titans defense after returning to practice earlier this week with a big elbow brace but is considered questionable. LB Wesley Woodyard (shoulder) will return after missing the last two weeks, but top pass rusher and former first-round pick Derrick Morgan (shoulder) joins Will Compton (hamstring) in sitting this one out. DT Bennie Logan (elbow) is going to play, but guard Quinton Spain (shoulder) is questionable, so Tennessee could be vulnerable on both fronts. The Chargers don’t have much of a homefield advantage in their soccer stadium in Carson, so spending a weekend as the “home” team in England won’t affect much. The Titans are 1-10 in their last 11 games against the Chargers, coming in 0-9-1 against the number over the last 10.

    New England (-2/48.5) at Chicago, 1 p.m. ET, CBS:
    Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski didn’t travel with the team to Chicago and isn’t likely to play, leaving veteran Dwayne Allen and second-year option Jacob Hollister to handle the workload. A back issue has caused the Pats to take the cautious approach and get him some rest. Tom Brady won’t have top tackle Marcus Cannon (head) protecting him either, so these aren’t ideal conditions for him to face the top defense he’s seen since losing at the Patriots and Lions in consecutive weeks last month. WRs Josh Gordon (hamstring) and Julian Edelman (heel) will play and figure to be heavily involved if he gets the time to work, while rookie RB Sony Michel (knee) is also going to be available.

    The Bears will have star Khalil Mack in the mix after an ankle tweak and also upgraded corner Prince Amukamara (hamstring) and top WR Allen Robinson (groin) to ‘probable.’ Chicago has ranked fourth in the league against the run and haven’t surrendered a touchdown on the ground, so we’ll see whether the defense remains stingy here since their attention will be on making Brady uncomfortable. New England has won seven of eight in this series since 1988, losing only in 2000. They hung up 51 points in the most recent meeting at Foxboro back in 2015 and posted a 36-7 rout in their last trip to Solder Field back in 2000. The Patriots are looking for their first road win of the season. Temperatures are going to be in the 40s and wind won't be too much of a factor.

    Cleveland at Tampa Bay (-3.5/52), 1 p.m. ET, FOX:
    A defense that has struggled mightily all season will lose their leader for a week with Gerald McCoy (calf) ruled out. Fellow pass-rusher Vinny Curry (ankle) isn’t going to play either. Both were in the mix in last Sunday’s loss to Atlanta, which marked the fourth time in five games this season that the Bucs surrendered 30 or more points. Mike Smith paid for that with his job and has been replaced by veteran LBs coach Mark Duffner, who hasn’t been a coordinator since a stint with the Bengals more than 15 years ago. He’s got his work cut out for him and will be counting on LBs Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander to step up and lead.

    The Bucs will have to deal with Cleveland top draft pick QB Baker Mayfield, who made the injury report due to an ankle injury but will be under center running an offense that will now be even more reliant on the talent of fellow rookie Nick Chubb. The Browns traded veteran RB Carlos Hyde to Jacksonville earlier this week after utilizing him to serve as mentor over the past few months, so Chubb and Duke Johnson will try and keep pressure off Mayfield via the ground game. Mayfield comes off a rough outing in a 38-14 loss to the Chargers after throwing two picks and being sacked five times. Jameis Winston made his first start since returning from suspension in Atlanta and will be making his first appearance at home this season.

    Detroit (-3/47) at Miami, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The absence of QB Ryan Tannehill comes as no surprise this week, so the Lions have been able to dissect Brock Osweiler tape in preparation for this road game coming off a bye. Big plays helped take down the Bears at home in OT last week, but Osweiler wasn’t asked to do much besides get the ball out quickly and accurately. Pass rusher Ziggy Ansah has been ruled out for the Lions due to a recurring shoulder issue, but safety Tavon Wilson returns to aid secondary depth. Pass-catching RB Theo Reddick has been ruled out, so rookie Kerryon Johnson should expect more of a workload in keeping the Dolphins defense from keying in on Matthew Stafford.

    Guard T.J. Lang will likely be back to help protect Stafford after sustaining the sixth concussion of his career and will have to deal with a pass rush bolstered by the return of Cameron Wake (knee). Corner Bobby McCain (knee) is expected back too. WR DeVante Parker is likely to miss another game with a nagging quad injury. Former Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia comes off his first bye week as a head coach and will have had plenty of time to prepare for a former division rival, the first he’ll run into with Detroit. The Lions pulled out a 26-10 Week 3 upset of the Patriots but haven’t won away from home in two outings under Patricia’s watch, dropping one-possession games at San Francisco and Dallas. The weather forecast calls for hot weather that will feel like it will get up into the 90s, but the threat of rain in South Florida always exists and could factor in at any time throughout this contest.

    Carolina at Philadelphia (-5/45), 1 p.m. ET, FOX:
    The Eagles looked a lot more like themselves in their latest outing, taking full advantage of the Giants’ limitations in posting a Thursday night blowout that gave them a few extra days of rest before facing this one. The time off definitely helped tackles Jason Peters (bicep) and Lane Johnson (ankle), both of whom will be working here. There were still a number of guys who couldn’t get back despite the extra time since RB Darren Sproles, corner Sidney Jones and safety Corey Graham have all been ruled out with lingering hamstring issues. Corner Jalen Mills did overcome his hammy ailment and will participate while DT Haloti Ngata is questionable. With fellow DT Tim Jernigan out, Philly is expected to lean on unproven Treyvon Hester, who was promoted from the practice squad. Cam Newton failed to complete a pass in the final few plays of last Sunday’s loss to Washington but has continued to run the ball more this season and gives the Panthers’ attack a variable that’s difficult to prepare for.

    Rain could be a factor at the Linc and heavy winds are almost certain to be, which could favor the visitors since they’re less reliant on the passing game. The Eagles do lead the NFL in time of possession, so this will be a battle between two teams who look to utilize keeping their defense off the field as an advantage. Wind gusts of nearly 40 miles per hour are in the forecast. Philadelphia has ben excellent at home under Doug Peterson, coming in 10-3 while surrendering just over 10 points per game over their last 10. They haven’t dropped consecutive home games in years but are in danger of doing so here after falling short against Minnesota to open the month.

    Buffalo at Indianapolis (-7/43), 1 p.m. ET, CBS:
    Derek Anderson hasn’t played in a regular-season game since last January’s Wild Card loss to New Orleans but will start this one ahead of turnover machine Nathan Peterman despite only being signed on Oct. 7. Rookie Josh Allen will miss time with an elbow injury suffered in last week’s loss to the Texans. Peterman, who started the opener and multiple games last season, came in and through a touchdown in Houston but then ultimately cost the Bills the game by throwing a late pick-six. He’s expected to be released when Allen is ready to return. Buffalo is already playing its fifth road game of the season here and come in 1-3, having shocked Minnesota in Week 3.

    The Colts badly need this win and have been placed in the favorite’s role for the first time all season. Indianapolis has given up an average of 39 points per game over the last three outings, all losses. The Jets scored a season-high 41 points against them and were never in danger of being stopped despite working with a banged-up receiving corps and a rookie QB. Andrew Luck has led the offense to 34 points in two of the last three weeks, increasingly looking like his old self as he shakes off the rust. It will help to have top target T.Y. Hilton back from a hamstring injury that kept him out of multiple games, but top tight end Jack Doyle (hip) remains sidelined. Erik Swoope, who has caught a pair of TD passes this season in Doyle’s place, is questionable with a knee issue. DE Margus Hunt is dealing with a similar ailment and is questionable, while DT Denico Autry and safety Clayton Geathers will miss another game, having been ruled out.

    Minnesota (-3.5/45) at N.Y. Jets, 1 p.m. ET, FOX:
    The injury bug continues to bite in Minneapolis, seemingly taking large chunks out of a Super Bowl contender every time it strikes. Rookie corner Mike Hughes tore his ACL to end his promising first season that already featured a game-changing pick-six, while safety Andrew Sendejo and DE Everson Griffen remain sidelined. DT Linval Joseph is questionable after missing practices this week with multiple ailments, but DEs Danielle Hunter and Tashawn Bower are expected to play. The Vikings offense is also down top RB Dalvin Cook, who hasn’t been right all season due to a linger hamstring injury. Latavius Murray will start again.

    The Jets will have their RB, Isaiah Crowell, in the mix to join Bilal Powell in the team’s highly affected two-headed monster at the position. New York has clawed back to .500 and will be looking for a third straight victory after scoring over 40 points in a home game for the first time since 2012. Sam Darnold has thrown six TD passes against just two interceptions over his last three games in coming out of a rough stretch in losses to Miami and Cleveland. He’s looked like the most effective of the rookie quarterbacks but has definitely exhibited signs of being streaky. We’ll see if Minnesota’s depleted defense can get to him early to shake his confidence. That should be one of this game’s biggest keys. Gusty winds should be an issue for him and Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins since gusts are expected to top 40 miles per hour.

    Houston at Jacksonville (-3.5/41.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS:
    The Jaguars won’t have RB Leonard Fournette back from a hamstring issue that looks like it will linger into the next month or two, requiring the acquisition of Hyde, who doesn’t know the system well enough to contribute and will be held out this week. That means T.J. Yeldon is in for a heavy workload against the Texans as he looks to keep their feared pass rush from locking in on QB Blake Bortles.

    The Texans had won six straight games from 2014-17 before Jacksonville swept last year’s season series, pulling no punches in securing a little revenge by outscoring Houston 74-14 despite the games being played over three months apart. As a result of when games were played, the Jags missed out on facing the real Deshaun Watson, who struggle in his debut in the season opener (12-for-23, 102 yards) and was injured by the time Week 15 rolled around. He had a run of four straight games throwing for over 300 yards end in last week’s win over Buffalo. Bortles threw for just 149 yards in a 40-7 loss to Dallas and has been dreadful in October, throwing for two scores and five interceptions after a promising September. He’ll be facing a Texans defense that gets back corner Andrew Hal, who will be playing his first game since winning a bout with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma. Moderate wind gusts will be a part of the action in Jacksonville, but rain should stay away.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-21-2018 at 12:18 PM.

  8. #23
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    Total Talk - Week 7
    Chris David

    Week 6 Recap

    The ‘over’ came out ahead again in Week with a 9-6 record and that pushes the high side to 51-42 (55%) on the season. It’s safe to say that 14 of the outcomes were never in doubt and the one outlier took place in Miami as the Dolphins led the Bears 7-0 at halftime. Due to the quarterback switch for Miami, this total closed at 40 ˝ and looked like the right side after the first 30 minutes. Unfortunately for ‘under’ bettors, they watched Chicago come out firing in the third quarter with 21 unanswered points. Then, the Dolphins countered with their own big plays and rallied for the 31-28 upset win in overtime.

    2018 Total Results - Game & Halves
    O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
    Week 6 9-6 10-5 7-8

    O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
    Year-to-Date 51-42 47-46 42-47-4

    2018 Results - Other
    O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
    Week 6 2-2 2-1 2-1 1-0

    O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
    Year-to-Date 13-11 13-13 12-5 5-2

    The Coast-to-Coast angle connected again last week with the Chargers dicing up the Browns 38-14 in Cleveland. Another bread winner for total bettors early through six weeks has been playing the ‘over’ in games played indoors.

    Keep an Eye On

    -- We’ve only had four teams play off the bye so far but the ‘over’ is 4-0 in those games and the defensive units have been torched for 33.5 points per game which includes the effort by the Bears (28) and Buccaneers (34) last Sunday. Side bettors should note that teams with rest are 1-3 straight up and 0-4 against the spread, with Carolina being the lone winner albeit lucky against the N.Y. Giants in Week 5. This weekend, the Saints and Lions will be playing with rest.

    -- There are five non-conference games on Sunday and looking above you can see that we haven’t had a dominating lean to the ‘over’ or ‘under’ through six weeks. For this card, I would keep an eye on the weather in these games. The Lions and Browns will be facing an unusual type of heat in Florida this weekend as they visit the Dolphins and Buccaneers respectively. Also, the windy conditions of Soldier Field may not be kind to the Patriots. Lastly, two indoor teams in the Vikings and Saints will also be out of their elements in road games at the Jets and Ravens.

    -- The NFL International Series saw a lopsided affair last Sunday as Seattle dominated Oakland 27-3. Including that easy ‘under’ (48), the total results through 22 games played in the UK sit at 11-11. The Chargers and Titans will meet at Wembley Stadium in an early game (9:30 a.m. ET) this week.

    -- The popular “Thursday Night Total” system stayed perfect last week and sits at 5-0 after the Chiefs and Patriots combined for 83 points. For new readers viewing ‘Total Talk’ for the first time, the angle calls for finding out who played at home on Thursday in the previous week and playing the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue. The Giants-Falcons matchup fits for Week 7 since New York played at home last Thursday versus Philadelphia. As bad as New York has looked offensively, this Falcons defense is a mess and we could be in store for another cracker on the scoreboard this Monday.

    -- Another angle I noted last week came up empty with the "Road Total System." The trend calls for bettors to play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game. Baltimore and Tennessee fit in Week 6 and the Ravens blanked the Titans 21-0 at home. Including that low side result, the ‘over’ is now 44-24 (65%) over the last 12 seasons. If interested, this angle is in play again this Sunday as the Los Angeles Rams will be playing their third straight game on the road at San Francisco.

    -- Totals in the fifties saw a stalemate (2-2) last week and through six weeks the ‘over’ is 12-9 in games that closed at 50 points or higher.

    Line Moves and Public Leans

    Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 7 as of Saturday morning.

    New England at Chicago: 50 to 48 ˝
    Houston at Jacksonville: 44 to 41
    New Orleans at Baltimore: 51 to 49 ˝

    Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 7 per the betting trend percentages as of Saturday morning.

    N.Y. Giants at Atlanta: Over 86%
    Minnesota at N.Y. Jets: Over 85%
    Detroit at Miami: Over 82%
    Cincinnati at Kansas City: Over 77%
    Houston at Jacksonville: Under 76%

    For the second straight week, going with the leans produced a 4-1 record and all of the results were clear-cut.

    Divisional Matchups

    Houston at Jacksonville:
    This is one of the lowest totals (41) on the board and it’s justified, especially when you factor in the offensive numbers for both Houston (22.5 PPG) and Jacksonville (18.2 PPG). Plus, the defensive units for the Texans (22.8 PPG) and Jaguars (21 PPG) are in the top-half of the league in scoring. Last season, Houston only managed to score a combined 14 points in the two meetings against Jacksonville but it didn’t have QB Deshaun Watson available for either game. Even though the ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in this series, those outcomes were tight and expecting a shootout this week is a long shot.

    Dallas at Washington:
    A good old-fashioned NFC East grinder is expected for this matchup with the total hovering between 41 and 42 points. Based on the home-away numbers for both clubs, it’s hard to argue for a high-scoring game. Dallas is averaging 12.3 PPG on the road this season and the Washington defense (18.3 PPG) has been very solid at FedEx Field. Both Dallas (4-2) and Washington (3-2) have leaned to the ‘under’ this season but the last five matchups in this series have watched the ‘over’ cash.

    L.A. Rams at San Francisco:
    This week’s total between these teams certainly shows you how the new-look offensive game in the NFL is changing. In the last 30 meetings, 49 was the highest closing total in this series and that occurred in the 2004 season. Everybody knows that the Rams (32.7 PPG) offense is a machine and despite losing its starting QB, the 49ers (24.7 PPG) have managed to stay the course offensively. The issue for San Francisco is its scoring defense (29.8 PPG) and that unit has helped the ‘over’ go 5-1 on the season. Since Sean McVay became the head coach in Los Angeles, the Rams have averaged 31.9 PPG on the road and that’s led to an 8-3 ‘over’ mark.

    Under the Lights

    Week 6 was the first time this season that the ‘over’ cashed in all three primetime games. Including this past Thursday’s result to the high side between the Broncos and Cardinals, the ‘over’ sits at 11-9 in games played at night this season and the oddsmakers are expecting more shootouts this weekend.

    SNF – Cincinnati at Kansas City:
    This is the highest total (58 ˝) on the board and it’s a hard to make a case for the ‘under’ based on what we’ve seen from the Chiefs offense (35.8 PPG) and their defense (28.7 PPG). Plus, the Bengals offense (29 PPG) has been clicking this season and their road production (30.7 PPG) has actually been better. All of those numbers have helped both clubs posted 4-2 ‘over’ marks on the season. Make a note that this game was flexed into the primetime slot and while it doesn’t seem like a big deal, it may play a factor and both teams are coming off tough losses in Week 6.

    MNF – N.Y. Giants at Atlanta:
    The ‘over’ has gone 4-0 at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium this season and fans have been treated to points by the Falcons (34.5 PPG) and their opponents (33.2 PPG). I actually thought this total would be a tad higher due to Atlanta’s defense but New York hasn’t shown much firepower on offense (19.5 PPG). While the Giants have struggled offensively, their two best scoring efforts came on the road at Houston (27) and at Carolina (31). Knowing Atlanta hasn’t been able to stop anybody, you can see why sharp bettors have jumped on New York in this spot.

  9. #24
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    According to reports, Dolphins' QB Ryan Tannehill will miss today's game vs. Lions AS WELL AS Thursday's game @ Texans.
    Today's Spread: DET -3
    Today's Total: 47

  10. #25
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    SNF - Cincy at Kansas City

    I got caught by the hook like a blind fish last week with my play on the New England Patriots at -3.5 in their wild 43-40 win over the Kansas City Chiefs. And while I don't always make a point of suggesting to buy half-points to make sure you've got a ticket with a key number like +/- 3 or +/-7 in your hand, it's an important practice to employ as last week's result proves.

    Personally, I made sure to get -3 on New England last week to at least get the push, but with these articles done during the weekdays, I've got to give out the line as it is that day. In the end, it's not a huge thing, just know that if I'm recommending a play at -3.5, -7.5, or +6.5, it's best to get those 3's and 7's in your pocket if you're following, rather than betting a bad number.

    Now that that's out of the way, we can move on to this week's game as for the second straight week on SNF, we get to watch Kansas City on the field. This time it's a home game for the Chiefs who are hosting a Bengals team off their own tough loss, and given how well both of these organizations came out of the gate this season, losing two in a row would sting. So who gets it done?

    Odds: Kansas City (-6); Total set at 57.5

    Cincinnati's inability to close out a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers rose up for all of us to see again last week as I don't know what it is about the Bengals and the Steelers, but Cincinnati just shrivels up late every time they've got a shot against Pittsburgh.

    The Bengals gave away a great opportunity to maintain control of the AFC North with a win there, and it will be interesting to see the trajectory of the Bengals campaign going forward.

    Losing to Pittsburgh the way they did can be one of those defining moments that sends a team like the Bengals into a downward spiral, or that locker room gets tighter and rallies around one another the rest of the year, knowing they'll get another crack at Pittsburgh. Either way, there really isn't that much time to lament that loss with this KC game on tap, as this Bengals team will try to be the first NFL team to really slow down the offensive juggernaut that these Chiefs have become.

    The Patrick Mahomes fan club in KC, in fantasy football circles, and around the entire country has grown exponentially each week this year, and despite Mahomes and the Chiefs suffering their first defeat of the year last week, they did earn plenty of respect in going toe-to-toe with New England in that epic shootout. It was the 5th time in six games that KC has scored 30+, as Mahomes and company stuck to their gunslinging ways vs New England.

    KC is not an organization that is going to be out there playing “boring” football this year, but after three straight weeks of facing the likes of Denver, Jacksonville, and New England, and having a rematch with Denver on deck, you've got to question just how much gas this Chiefs team has in the tank now.

    While KC having the potential for a bit of a 'dud' game and the Bengals still trying to figure out how they lost to the Steelers AGAIN, this is not really a side I want to get involved with. It's the total I'm looking to attack.

    Kansas City may not be fans of playing “boring,” defensive-minded football, but if you were going to hire a coach for a team that fits that description, Marvin Lewis would have to be near the top of that list. Lewis got this current gig in Cincinnati in large part because of a stellar run as the defensive Baltimore's defensive coordinator for five years at the turn of the century. Baltimore's Super Bowl winning defense in 2000 is largely regarded as one of the best defensive units this league has ever seen, and I think we see Lewis revert back to his old defensive self this week by having a bigger hand in those defensive meeting rooms and putting his fingerprints all over the defensive gameplan.

    Whether it ends up working or not in the Bengals favor remains to be seen, but Lewis knows that the only team to hold KC to fewer than 30 points this year was the Denver Broncos. Denver employed a slow, methodical, ground-heavy attack that day, did their best to bend but not break defensively in forcing KC FG's and that strategy worked great for three quarters. It's got to be a similar style of gameplan from the Bengals here, and they do have the pieces to make it work.

    While stepping in front of KC's offense with an 'under' wager isn't one that will be for many bettors, I do believe we end up seeing this game staying below the total. The number of 57.5 is still a very high one even in today's offensively-minded NFL, and if the Bengals come out and try to drain the clock from the start as I suspect, I'm not sure we will have enough time to get this total eclipsed. That was the case in the Denver/KC game I brought up earlier as that one cashed 'under' tickets with 51 points scored, and this game against the Bengals has a similar refrain to it.

    Since the start of the 2014 campaign, Cincinnati is 2-5 O/U in regular season games following a meeting with the Steelers, as all those losses to Pittsburgh seem to bring out that slugfest mentality for this Bengals organization. The average combined score in those seven games is just 37.7 points per game, nearly three full TD's below this total. That is simply too much margin for error to not look at the low side here.

    With Cincinnati on a 5-15 O/U run after allowing 250+ yards through the air and 6-14 O/U after allowing 350+ yards overall, I do believe this Bengals defense will be up to the challenge of containing Mahomes and company. And if the Bengals find success running the ball and sustaining long drives, the lack of time on the field for KC's offense won't give them enough opportunities to put up the lion's share of 58 or more points. The Chiefs are 8-18 O/U after allowing 30 points themselves, so it's not like KC's defense isn't eager to improve as well.

    It all ends up leading me to the 'under' for this game as Kansas City has become the one team this year that's seen their spreads and totals become completely overvalued because of their offensive success so far. As a bettor, finding those overvalued sides/totals and going against them is a great way to cash tickets when the inevitable regression comes around. Going against the Chiefs ATS this week is something I'd be willing to to if forced to make a play, but going low on this total looks to me to be the much better betting option.

  11. #26
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    MNF - Giants at Falcons
    Kevin Rogers


    The Giants (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS) pulled off a terrific comeback two weeks ago to take a 31-30 lead over Carolina with a minute remaining. The Panthers went down the field and booted a 63-yard field goal to edge New York, 33-31, but the Giants cashed as 6 ˝-point underdogs. New York followed up that close shave defeat with a dreadful effort in last Thursday’s 34-13 home setback to defending champion Philadelphia to suffer its third straight defeat.

    Dating back to the 2017 season, the Giants own an 0-7 ATS mark off an ATS win, which includes double-digit home defeats to the Saints and Eagles in this situation. The Eagles jumped out to a 24-6 halftime lead and never looked back as the lone highlights for the Giants belonged to rookie running back Saquon Barkley who picked up over 50 yards on two separate plays. Besides that, star receiver Odell Beckham, Jr. walked off the field before halftime with the offense on the field, while embattled veteran Eli Manning posted his worst quarterback rating of the season (66.1).

    The Falcons (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS) dug themselves a 1-4 hole in the tough NFC South through five games, but Atlanta picked up its second divisional victory in a 34-29 home triumph over Tampa Bay. Quarterback Matt Ryan threw three touchdown passes and racked up 354 yards through the air, while the 2016 MVP has now thrown for three or more scores in three games this season.

    Atlanta topped the 31-point mark for the fourth time in four games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, while Ryan has not been intercepted in four straight contests. The running game never got going with Devonta Freeman still sidelined (70 total yards), but All-Pro wide receiver Julio Jones hauled in 10 catches for 143 yards in spite of not scoring a touchdown this season. Since losing to Tampa Bay in the 2016 opener, the Falcons have won seven of their past eight home games against division foes.


    As mentioned above, the Falcons are lighting up the scoreboard, especially at home. All four games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium have sailed OVER the total, even the high total of 57 last Sunday against Tampa Bay. The Atlanta defense is busted up due to injuries, as the only UNDER for the Falcons this season hit in the season opener at Philadelphia. The Giants have allowed 33 points or more in three straight games, while the past two road games for New York have cashed the OVER against Houston and Carolina.


    The Giants are making their first visit to Atlanta since getting blanked by the Falcons in 2012 in an ugly 34-0 road defeat. The most recent meeting between these two NFC squads came at Met Life Stadium in 2015 as the Falcons rallied for 14 fourth quarter points in a 24-20 triumph as two-point underdogs. Ryan torched the Giants for 363 yards passing, while Jones caught 13 passes for 135 yards. The last time these teams met on a Monday night came back in 2007 at the Georgia Dome when the Giants ripped the Falcons, 31-10, the season before Atlanta drafted Ryan.


    New York has not been a reliable team to back on Monday nights over the last few seasons by going 2-5 SU/ATS since 2014, including a 14-point home loss to Detroit last season. The Falcons have won in each of their past four appearances on Monday night since 2015, while hosting their first Monday night contest since 2015, when Atlanta edged Philadelphia in the season opener, 26-24.


    NFL expert Joe Nelson is back this week, first giving his take on the Big Blue, “A lot of the negative attention has fallen on Manning, a two-time Super Bowl winner but past his prime at age 37. Ironically Manning is on pace for his best completion rate of his career at nearly 69 percent while his current 7.23 yards per attempt average is his highest since 2014. Manning does have eight turnovers in six games which some of which he deserves blame for, some of it can be pinned on the offensive line, something many fans expected to be addressed in the NFL draft last spring but the Giants opted for the luxury of Barkley in the backfield. Barkley has done his part posting 5.2 yards per carry while already catching 40 passes as the focal point of the offense.”

    On the other side, the Falcons are thriving at quarterback following a slow start in Week 1, “It has been a resurgent season for Ryan, who is fourth in QB Rating at this point in the season while completing nearly 70 percent of his passes. He is third in the NFL in passing yards and has a 7:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Ryan has needed to do the heavy lifting with Freeman injured and his task could be more difficult this week with star rookie Calvin Ridley injured last week and a question mark for Monday,” Nelson notes.

    Game Props – According to Westgate Superbook

    Total Gross Passing Yards – Eli Manning
    OVER 278 ˝ (-110)
    UNDER 278 (-110)

    Total Touchdown Passes – Eli Manning
    OVER 1 ˝ (-140)
    UNDER 1 ˝ (+120)

    Total Receiving Yards – Odell Beckham, Jr.
    OVER 93 ˝ (-110)
    UNDER 93 ˝ (-110)

    Total Completions – Matt Ryan
    OVER 26 ˝ (-110)
    UNDER 26 ˝ (-110)

    Total Touchdown Passes – Matt Ryan
    OVER 2 ˝ (EVEN)
    UNDER 2 ˝ (-120)

    Will Julio Jones score a touchdown?
    YES (+120)
    NO (-140)


    The Falcons opened up as six-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook last Monday when Week 7 lines were released. However, that number has dipped down to Atlanta laying as low as 3 ˝ points at several books. The total opened at 54 ˝, but is slowly going down to 53 and even 52 ˝ at some books in spite of Atlanta’s high-scoring outputs at home.

  12. #27
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    Bettors jump on Saints' opening odds for NFL Week 8 clash vs. Vikings
    Patrick Everson

    With only the Monday night game remaining in NFL Week 7, it’s time to jump ahead to some intriguing matchups in Week 8. Covers checks in on the opening lines and early action for four such contests, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at the Westgate.

    New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)

    This is a rematch of an NFC divisional playoff game from last season, won by Minnesota on a wild play in the waning seconds. The Vikings (4-2-1 SU and ATS) head into this contest on a three-game win streak (2-0-1 ATS), routing the New York Jets 37-17 as 3.5-point road favorites in Week 7.

    New Orleans got a win by the width of the goal post in Week 7 for its fifth consecutive victory and fourth straight cover. The Saints (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) gave up a last-minute touchdown at Baltimore, but the kick failed as they escaped with a 24-23 victory as 2.5-point underdogs.

    “This looks like the best game of the week, and it’s a rematch of the Minneapolis Miracle game in last season’s playoffs,” Murray said Sunday evening. “There should be a lot of two-way action on this game.”

    The SuperBook saw immediate play on New Orleans, knocking the line down to Minnesota -1.5 Sunday evening.

    Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5)

    Defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia is struggling mightily to find its way this season, and now has to travel to London in an effort to get right. The Eagles (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) blew a 17-0 fourth-quarter lead in Week 7, losing to Carolina 21-17 as 5-point home faves.

    Jacksonville reached the AFC Championship Game last season, but much like Philly is failing to impress this year. The Jaguars (3-4 SU and ATS) were 3.5-point Week 7 home favorites against Houston and mounted very little offense in a 20-7 loss.

    “We opened it Eagles -2.5 and had a respected player bet it right away, so we moved to -3 even money,” Murray said. “Jacksonville is a mess right now on offense.”

    Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams (-8.5)

    Los Angeles is the lone unbeaten team in the NFL, riding its high-octane offense to a 7-0 SU mark (4-3 ATS). The Rams went to San Francisco as 8-point chalk in Week 7, bolted out to a 22-0 lead and won 39-10.

    Green Bay enters this contest off a bye week, after climbing above .500. The Packers (3-2-1 SU, 2-4 ATS) got far more of a game from San Francisco than they expected in Week 6, but pulled out a 33-30 win laying 9 points at home in the Week 6 Monday nighter.

    “The Rams are now 7-0 and rolled to the cover as huge favorite in San Francisco. Green Bay will be coming in off their bye week,” Murray said. “The Packers’ defense made C.J. Beathard look good last Monday. I have to think the Rams will have a lot of success offensively.”

    Los Angeles money took this line up a full point to 9.5 for a few minutes Sunday night, before it ticked back to 9.

    Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-9)

    Kansas City already played and beat Denver on the road in a tightly contested Week 4 Monday nighter, and Andy Reid’s squad continues to prove it’s among the best in the AFC. The Chiefs (6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS) bounced back from a shootout loss at New England by plastering Cincinnati 45-10 giving 6.5 points in the Week 7 Sunday nighter.

    Denver comes into this AFC West clash with a little bit more rest, having played in the Thursday night game. In that contest, the Broncos (3-4 SU, 2-4-1 ATS) halted a four-game slide by steamrolling Arizona 45-10 laying 1 point on the road.

    “Denver will have three extra days to prepare for this game, after its Thursday night win over the Cardinals,” Murray said. “The Broncos may have saved Vance Joseph’s job with that win. I’m not sure that’s a good thing if you’re a Broncos fan.”

    The Broncos-Chiefs line was still at 9 when the Bengals-Chiefs game started, at which point the line was taken off the board, which is standard operating procedure at The SuperBook for teams in the Sunday night game. The line will be rehung Monday morning.

  13. #28
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    Top 6 picks in Week 7 of Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)

    1) Vikings, -3 (1,192)- W

    2) Patriots, -3 (966)- W

    3) Chiefs, -6 (886)- W

    4) Lions, -2.5 (841)- W

    5) Ravens, -3.5 (837)- L

    6) Buccaneers, -3 (743)- T

    Season record: 19-20-3



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