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Thread: NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 7 (Thur. Oct. 18 - Mon. Oct. 22)

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    Default NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 7 (Thur. Oct. 18 - Mon. Oct. 22)



    NFL Trends and Indexes

    Thursday. October 18 - Monday. October 22

    Additional trends and information will be added as available.

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Opening Line Report - Week 7
    Joe Williams

    The Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs were flexed into the Sunday Night Football spot this week in place of the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers. The way the Niners played on Monday in Green Bay, perhaps that's bad idea. Now, the Niners will face another postseason hopeful on their own home turf as double-digit underdogs.

    Four more teams are enjoying their bye week this week, and we'll get our first London game at 9:30 am ET, after a primetime battle in England this past weekend. The Tennessee Titans and Los Angeles Chargers will square off in Jolly Old England, and the Titans hope they can fare a little better than they did in the Music City last week when they put up a goose egg against the Baltimore Ravens.

    Thursday, Oct. 18

    Denver Broncos (-2.5, 41) at Arizona Cardinals


    This game looked to be a little more attractive during the offseason, but after a few good Thursday matchups we get a dog. The Broncos have shown some signs of life on offense lately, and they opened as a 2 1/2-point favorite at most shops. The Mirage-MGM and Stratosphere opened the Broncos at just 1 1/2, but that quickly changed in a matter of minutes to fall in line with everyone else.


    Sunday, Oct. 21

    Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5, 45.5)


    Last week's London battle between the Oakland Raiders and Seattle Seahawks featured two West Coast teams playing at 1:00 p.m. ET, or 10:00 a.m. PT. This week, the Chargers will be playing at 6:30 a.m. PT, which is sure to have some kind of effect, especially after thousands of miles of travel. Most shops have the Bolts holding steady at 6 1/2, although if you hurry you can catch them at Treasure Island at -6.

    New England Patriots (-3.5, 49.5) at Chicago Bears

    The Patriots beat back a challenge from the Kansas City Chiefs by a 43-40 score last Sunday night, the first time in NFL history a game was decided by that score, by the way. Now, the Pats are on to Chicago, facing a Bears team which really punched themselves in the goodies in Miami, falling to old friend Adam Gase.

    The Strat opened this game at -4, and it was bet down to -3 1/2, while TI had this game at -3 and it was bet up to -3 1/2. That appears to be where all of the shops will settle for now. Bettors appears to be trusting of the Bears defense, or expect the Pats offense not to be as prolific, as the line has been driven down from 50 to 49 or 49 1/2 at most shops.

    Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 49.5)

    The Browns fell back to Earth at home against the Chargers, and now they face the tough task of playing in the heat and humidity of Central Florida against a Bucs team which has shown the potential to score in bunches. The Bucs opened at -3 at most shops and it has held steady with little action, although at Treasure Island the line moved slightly from an open of -2 1/2 to get in line with everyone else.

    Detroit Lions (-1, OFF) at Miami Dolphins

    The uncertainty of the Miami quarterback situation has the total OFF at the moment. It was Brock-toberfest last week against the Bears, as QB Brock Osweiler surprised with an overtime win at the helm in place of the injured QB Ryan Tannehill. To make matters worse for the Fins, they catch a rested Lions team which is 5-1 ATS in their past six coming off a bye.

    Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 45.5)

    The Panthers stumbled in their comeback attempt in D.C. last week, now they will have their hands full against the defending Super Bowl champs. Philly opened at -4 or -4 1/2 at most shops, although TI had it at -3 1/2 for a brief time on Monday. It appears the public is heavily backing the champs at home against the Panthers, who have struggled defensively at times.

    Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5, 42.5)

    The Bills have some uncertainty at the quarterback position, as QB Josh Allen banged up his elbow and is a question mark. Will newly-signed Derek Anderson start? Will the mistake-prone Nate Peterman get the nod? Or will the rookie Allen play through pain? Only CG Technology and Westgate Superbook are offering the line, and CG now has the Colts laying a touch. If you like the high-scoring Colts to lay the 6 1/2, go offshore.

    Minnesota Vikings (-3, 47) at New York Jets

    The Vikings are a hard team to figure. They appear to be a Super Bowl contender sometimes, and other times they're just good, but not great. The Jets lost to the Cleveland Browns a couple of Thursdays ago, but they have looked impressive in their past two weekends. It's too bad this isn't the QB Teddy Bridgewater game against his former team, as he was shipped to NOLA after an impressive preseason with Gang Green. That would've been fun.

    Anyway, this game has bounced back and forth between 3 1/2 and 3, with Treasure Island opening it at -4. If you're feeling the Jets at home and like the hook, you can still get it at Jerry's Nugget. There has been very little movement or interest in the total, which has not changed across the board from an open of 47.

    Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5, 42.5)

    Both of these teams struggled in the Lone Star State last week. The Texans eeked out a 20-13 win thanks to a pick-six against the Bills, while the Jags were emasculated by the Dallas Cowboys. Bettors seem to like the Jags to bounce back, as the line rose from an open of -4 to -4 1/2 at Mirage-MGM, which is in line with all other Vegas shops. There is confidence the Jags' D will bounce back, too, after giving up a 40-burger in Big D, too, as the total is down from 42 1/2 to 42 at Atlantis as well as Jerry's Nugget.

    New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 49.5)

    The Ravens fell in Cleveland in Week 5, and blanked Tennessee in Week 6. They're hard to figure. There hasn't been much movement on this game, with the Ravens opening and holding steady as 2 1/2-point favorites at most shops. The Saints are coming off a rest, and they're 9-1 ATS in their past 10 following a bye week.

    Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-1.5, 41.5)

    The Cowboys have owned this series in recent seasons, covering their past four trips to Washington, while going a perfect 5-0 SU in the nation's capital since their last loss there on Dec. 30, 2012. The public has taken notice, as the game opened at -2 1/2 at the Strat, dropping a point in less than 24 hours. The same happened at the Westgate Superbook, toin from 2 1/2 to 1 1/2.

    Los Angeles Rams (-10.5, 53) at San Francisco 49ers

    The 49ers are 2-0 ATS this season when they're an underdog by 7 or more points. The 'over' has also cashed in each of their past five. That will be put to the test against a Rams defense which has been very good. For whatever reason, the 49ers have played them well over the years, though, and they're 3-2 SU/4-1 ATS i nthe past five meetings with the 'under' going 4-1 in the past five played in the Bay Area.

    The solid showing of the 49ers on Monday has made an impression on bettors, as the line has fallen slightly from -11 to -10 1/2 at most shops. William Hill even opened this one at -11 1/2, and it's down a full point.

    Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-6, 58.5)

    This game was flexed into the Sunday night spot, as the Chiefs are the Flavor of the Month right now. Sorry Rams and 49ers fans. After an emotional three-point loss in New England, the public seems to be feeling the Bengals against the Chiefs, expecting some sort of a hangover. The Strat opened this game at -6, and money has come in on the Bengals to push it to -5 1/2. Caesars/Harrah's has toggled between -6 and -5 1/2, but to -6. If you're feeling the Bengals, who have shown an ability to score, you might want to wait it out.

    The 'under' had been 3-0 in the past three SNF games until involving the Chiefs in Week 6. The total is on the move in this one, opening at 58 at Caesars, up to 59 at Coasts, and 58 1/2 offshore. It wouldn't be surprising to see the 60-mark broken on this one before the close on Sunday night.


    Monday, Oct. 22

    New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons (-6, 54.5)


    The Giants hit the road on Monday night after playing at home last Thursday. If you've followed Chris David's 'Total Talk', the over/under might be of interest to you. The 'over' is a perfect 5-0 after the Patriots went over on Sunday night. The 'Thursday Night Total' system says to thump the 'over' for the home team from Thursday in the previous week. The Giants were romped at home against the Eagles last Thursday, so they should be involved in a high-scoring game this Monday, and hey, they're rested.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-16-2018 at 11:31 AM.

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    Patriots should attract public bettors as short faves vs. Bears in NFL Week 7 odds
    Patrick Everson

    Tom Brady and New England outlasted Kansas City on Sunday night, but didn't cover. The Patriots opened as 3-point favorites at Chicago in Week 7, the same number as last week's lookahead line.

    Week 7 on the NFL schedule doesn’t have a game that just leaps off the page, but there are some intriguing matchups nonetheless. We check in on the opening lines and early action for four such contests, with insights from John Murray, sportsbook manager at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

    New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (+3)

    New England put up tons of points in each of the last three games, and in Week 6 needed pretty much all of them. The Patriots (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) blew a 24-9 halftime lead in a Sunday night shootout with Kansas City, but escaped with a 43-40 victory as 3.5-point home favorites

    Chicago had plenty of time to rest up for Week 6, with a Week 5 bye, and got to face a backup quarterback. All that wasn’t enough, though, as the Bears (3-2 SU and ATS) lost to Brock Osweiler and Miami 31-28 in overtime as 7.5-point road faves.

    “We saw a lot of money show up on the Bears +3 when we put up the lookahead line for this game last Tuesday,” Murray said early Sunday evening, prior to the Chiefs-Patriots contest. “This will be the Patriots’ first road game in a month, and the Bears crowd should be wild. But the public perception of the Bears may change a lot after that terrible loss to Osweiler and the Dolphins. The public will be all over the Patriots in this game if they have an impressive showing against the Chiefs.”

    The offense was certainly impressive, but the New England defense got torched.

    Per Superbook policy, the Pats-Bears line was taken down during the Sunday night game and will be rehung Monday morning.

    Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)

    Philadelphia is the defending Super Bowl champion, but sits at just 3-3 SU and ATS through six weeks. The Eagles hope they’re back on track after rolling over the New York Giants 34-13 as 1.5-point road chalk in the Thursday night game.

    Carolina barely escaped against the visiting Giants in Week 5, winning on a 63-yard field goal as time expired, but didn’t have such luck in Week 6 at Washington. The Panthers (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) fell behind 17-0 in the first half and had their rally fall short in a 23-17 setback as 1-point faves.

    “Philadelphia has three extra days to prepare for this game, and Carolina struggled for a second week in a row in its loss to the Redskins,” Murray said. “The Panthers would be on a two-game losing streak without the heroics of Graham Gano.”

    Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-2.5)

    With Philadelphia out of the gate slow, Washington is actually atop the NFC East at 3-2 SU and ATS. The Redskins went off as 1-point home ‘dogs against Carolina in Week 6 and held on for a 23-17 victory after blowing much of a 17-0 lead.

    Dallas has been tough to peg this season, but put together its best scoring output of the season in Week 6, and against a good defense, no less. The Cowboys (3-3 SU and ATS), catching 3 points at home, darted out to a 24-0 halftime lead and coasted past Jacksonville, 40-7.

    “Great win for Dallas at home over Jacksonville,” Murray said, before turning his attention to next weekend. “This feels like the kind of home game the Redskins always lose. I expect the public to back the Cowboys pretty heavily on the road here.”

    In fact, the early move in this division clash was toward Dallas, with the line dipping to 2 at the Superbook.

    Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-6)

    Kansas City was the talk of the league through five weeks, and rightly so, winning on the field and cashing for bettors every week. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS) continued to cash in Week 6 with a big rally at New England, but fell short on the scoreboard, losing 43-40 as a 3.5-point pup.

    Cincinnati blew a great opportunity to prove it was the best team in the NFC North. The Bengals (4-2 SU and ATS) went off as 1.5-point home favorites against Pittsburgh and took a 21-20 lead with 1:18 remaining in the game, then gave up a waning-seconds touchdown in a 28-21 loss.

    “Marvin Lewis always finds a way to blow a few games every season,” Murray said. “Sunday’s loss to Pittsburgh was particularly brutal. A win there would’ve made the Bengals 5-1 and put them in great position in the AFC North. This line may change depending on the result of the Sunday night game.”

    The Superbook took down the Cincy-KC line during the Chiefs-Patriots game and will repost the number Monday morning.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-16-2018 at 11:32 AM.

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    Betting Recap - Week 6
    Joe Williams

    Overall Notes

    National Football League Week 6 Results


    Wager Favorites-Underdogs
    Straight Up 9-5
    Against the Spread 6-8

    Wager Home-Away
    Straight Up 8-6
    Against the Spread 7-7

    Wager Totals (O/U)
    Over-Under 8-6

    National Football League Year-to-Date Results

    Wager Favorites-Underdogs
    Straight Up 58-32-2
    Against the Spread 41-49-2

    Wager Home-Away
    Straight Up 57-33-2
    Against the Spread 50-40-2

    Wager Totals (O/U)
    Over-Under 50-42

    The largest underdogs to win straight up
    Dolphins (+7, ML +270) vs. Bears, 31-28 (OT)
    Cowboys (+3, ML +150) vs. Jaguars, 40-7

    The largest favorite to cover
    Vikings (-9.5) vs. Cardinals, 27-17
    Falcons (-3) vs. Buccaneers, 34-29
    Seahawks (-3) vs. Raiders in London, 27-3

    Same Old Song and Dance

    -- The Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots did battle on Sunday Night Football in Foxboro, and it might not be the last time we see these combatants face one another this season. The Chiefs and QB Patrick Mahomes are the new kids on the block, the challengers. The Patriots and QB Tom Brady are the prideful veterans not ready give up their throne quite yet. If this were an MMA battle, this would have been a split decision after going the distance. The Pats won, the Chiefs covered...and it was the first game in NFL history to end with a 43-40 score. The sequel, if there is one, might be even more fun.

    Paying the Bills

    -- The Buffalo Bills do not seem to care being double-digit underdogs. They headed to the Gulf Coast to battle the Houston Texans, and they were tied 13-13 late despite losing their starting QB Josh Allen (elbow) to an injury. A late pick-six gave the home team the win, but the Bills were able to cover as double-digit underdogs. As a single-digit underdog the Bills are 1-3 ATS. As a 'dog by 10 or more points the Bills are 2-0 ATS. Buffalo has been a favorite of total bettors, too, as the 'under' has connected in four straight.

    Total Recall

    -- There were three games generally in the same neighborhood on the big board. The Jacksonville-Dallas (39.5) battle was the lowest total on the board, and the home team ended up taking care of the 'over' themselves in the 40-7 win. Further south in the Lone Star State, the Buffalo-Houston (40) battle had just 33 points on the board when the dust cleared, and a late defensive score made the difference. The Chicago-Miami (40.5) game was also expected to be a defensive battle, especially once it was determined QB Brock Osweiler would start in placed of the injured QB Ryan Tannehill (shoulder), but it was quite an entertaining battle with 59 total points to easily cash the over.

    -- The two highest totals on the board, Tampa Bay-Atlanta (57.5) and Kansas City-New England (59.5) weren't high enough. The Bucs and Falcons combined for 23 points in the fourth quarter to push the total over, while the Chiefs and Patriots hooked up for a total of 83 points. The other two games with totals of 50 or greater, Pittsburgh-Cincinnati (50) and L.A. Rams-Denver (50) ended up cashing 'under'.

    -- The 'over' cashed for the L.A. Chargers in their road rout of the Cleveland Browns, and they're the only team in the AFC who hasn't had the 'under' come in at least twice (5-1). In the NFC, the 'over' is a perfect 5-0 for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Atlanta Falcons have cashed in five of their six outings. The 'over' is also 4-1 for the San Francisco 49ers heading into their Monday night battle with the Green Bay Packers, who have also hit the over in four of their five outings.

    -- The 'over' finished 2-0 in the first two primetime games with the Monday night contest pending. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 9-9 (50.0%). The 'under' had cashed in three consecutive Sunday night battles before the track meet between the Chiefs and Patriots.

    Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

    In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

    In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

    In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

    Injury Report

    -- Bills QB Josh Allen (elbow) left Sunday's game in Houston with an elbow injury, forcing QB Nate Peterman into action. He ended up tossing a pick-six in the final two minutes, costing the team in a 20-13 loss.

    -- Falcons WRs Calvin Ridley (ankle) and Muhammad Sanu (hip) were each forced out of the Week 6 battle against the Buccaneers.

    -- Jets WR Quincy Enunwa (ankle) turned an ankle in the shootout against the Colts and he was unable to return.

    -- Raiders WRs Amari Cooper and Seth Roberts were each forced out of the battle with the Seahawks in London due to concussions.

    Looking Ahead

    -- The suddenly hot Texans, winners of three in a row, battle the Jaguars in Northeast Florida. The Jags head home from Dallas with their tails between their legs after a sound 40-7 beating. It might get worse, as they're just 2-6 ATS in their past eight home meetings against the Texans. The 'over' has cashed in three of the past four meetings overall, and three straight in Jacksonville.

    -- The Titans and Chargers will lock horns in London. The 'under' cashed in the Week 6 battle between the Seahawks and Raiders, and the total has gone under in 50% (11-11) the first 22 contests played in the United Kingdom.

    -- The 49ers return from home from Wisconsin to find the Rams waiting for them. That isn't a bad thing for San Francisco, as the Niners have covered five straight in this series, last failing to cover Nov. 1, 2015 on the road. They're 3-2 SU/4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, and the 'under' is 4-1 during the past five meetings in the Bay Area, too.

    -- The Cowboys will travel to D.C. looking to take care of their rivals, the Redskins. Lately, they have been a nightmare for Washington. The Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their past four meetings at home against the Cowboys, and they haven't beaten the Cowboys in five tries at FedEx Field since Dec. 30, 2012. The over has also cashed in three of the past four meetings in D.C., and five straight in this series.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-16-2018 at 11:33 AM.

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    NFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 7


    Thursday. October 18

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    DENVER (2 - 4) at ARIZONA (1 - 5) - 10/18/2018, 8:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DENVER is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    DENVER is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    DENVER is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
    DENVER is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    DENVER is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
    DENVER is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
    DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
    DENVER is 60-85 ATS (-33.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
    DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    Sunday. October 21

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    TENNESSEE (3 - 3) vs. LA CHARGERS (4 - 2) - 10/21/2018, 9:30 AM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TENNESSEE is 114-149 ATS (-49.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS is 97-70 ATS (+20.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS is 29-4 ATS (+24.6 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    LA CHARGERS is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
    LA CHARGERS is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NEW ENGLAND (4 - 2) at CHICAGO (3 - 2) - 10/21/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CHICAGO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 31-13 ATS (+16.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 31-13 ATS (+16.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 30-13 ATS (+15.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 121-91 ATS (+20.9 Units) in road games since 1992.
    NEW ENGLAND is 121-91 ATS (+20.9 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
    NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 21-5 ATS (+15.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    CLEVELAND (2 - 3 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 3) - 10/21/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CLEVELAND is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
    TAMPA BAY is 37-59 ATS (-27.9 Units) in October games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    DETROIT (2 - 3) at MIAMI (4 - 2) - 10/21/2018, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    CAROLINA (3 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (3 - 3) - 10/21/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CAROLINA is 114-85 ATS (+20.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
    CAROLINA is 58-37 ATS (+17.3 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
    PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    BUFFALO (2 - 4) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 5) - 10/21/2018, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
    BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CINCINNATI (4 - 2) at KANSAS CITY (5 - 1) - 10/21/2018, 8:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    KANSAS CITY is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    MINNESOTA (3 - 2 - 1) at NY JETS (3 - 3) - 10/21/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NY JETS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    NY JETS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in October games over the last 2 seasons.
    NY JETS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    HOUSTON (3 - 3) at JACKSONVILLE (3 - 3) - 10/21/2018, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NEW ORLEANS (4 - 1) at BALTIMORE (4 - 2) - 10/21/2018, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ORLEANS is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) against AFC North division opponents since 1992.
    NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    DALLAS (3 - 3) at WASHINGTON (3 - 2) - 10/21/2018, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    WASHINGTON is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    DALLAS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
    WASHINGTON is 62-96 ATS (-43.6 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DALLAS is 3-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
    DALLAS is 4-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    LA RAMS (6 - 0) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 4) - 10/21/2018, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA RAMS is 187-234 ATS (-70.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 187-234 ATS (-70.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 133-184 ATS (-69.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 145-185 ATS (-58.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 65-98 ATS (-42.8 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SAN FRANCISCO is 4-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
    SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Monday. October 22

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NY GIANTS (1 - 5) at ATLANTA (2 - 4) - 10/22/2018, 8:15 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NY GIANTS are 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
    NY GIANTS are 55-34 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.
    ATLANTA is 32-53 ATS (-26.3 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-16-2018 at 11:33 AM.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    73,864
    Credits
    191,042

    Default

    NFL

    Week 7


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Thursday. October 18

    Denver Broncos
    Denver is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games
    Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
    Denver is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
    Denver is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games on the road
    Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
    Denver is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Arizona
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Arizona
    Arizona Cardinals
    Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Arizona's last 10 games
    Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games at home
    Arizona is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
    Arizona is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Denver
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Denver



    Sunday, October 21

    Tennessee Titans
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
    Tennessee is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
    Tennessee is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing LA Chargers
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
    Los Angeles Chargers
    LA Chargers is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games
    LA Chargers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games
    LA Chargers is 9-0-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Tennessee
    LA Chargers is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing Tennessee
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing Tennessee


    New England Patriots
    New England is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games
    New England is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games
    New England is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games on the road
    New England is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 6 games on the road
    New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Chicago
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing Chicago
    Chicago Bears
    Chicago is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    Chicago is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
    Chicago is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games at home
    Chicago is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 10 games at home
    Chicago is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing New England
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing New England


    Cleveland Browns
    Cleveland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    Cleveland is 7-14 ATS in its last 21 games
    Cleveland is 2-20-1 SU in its last 23 games
    Cleveland is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
    Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 12 of Cleveland's last 17 games on the road
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    Tampa Bay is 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 games
    Tampa Bay is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
    Tampa Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Tampa Bay's last 13 games at home


    Carolina Panthers
    Carolina is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Carolina's last 13 games
    Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games on the road
    Carolina is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
    Carolina is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
    Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
    Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
    Philadelphia Eagles
    Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Philadelphia is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
    Philadelphia is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games at home
    Philadelphia is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games at home
    Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
    Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Carolina
    Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina
    Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina


    Minnesota Vikings
    Minnesota is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games
    Minnesota is 15-4-1 SU in its last 20 games
    Minnesota is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Minnesota is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 10 games on the road
    Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Jets
    Minnesota is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing NY Jets
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing NY Jets
    New York Jets
    NY Jets is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games
    NY Jets is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Jets's last 8 games at home
    NY Jets is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
    NY Jets is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing Minnesota


    Detroit Lions
    Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games
    Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games on the road
    Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami
    Miami Dolphins
    Miami is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Miami's last 9 games at home
    Miami is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Detroit


    Buffalo Bills
    Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games
    Buffalo is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
    Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
    Buffalo is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Indianapolis
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
    Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
    Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Buffalo's last 10 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
    Indianapolis Colts
    Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Indianapolis is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 14 games
    Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Indianapolis is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Indianapolis's last 15 games at home
    Indianapolis is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
    Indianapolis is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Buffalo
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games when playing Buffalo
    Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
    Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 10 games when playing at home against Buffalo


    Houston Texans
    Houston is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games
    Houston is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 8 games
    Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Houston is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
    Houston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Jacksonville
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
    Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
    Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
    Jacksonville Jaguars
    Jacksonville is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    Jacksonville is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games at home
    Jacksonville is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Houston
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 7 games when playing Houston
    Jacksonville is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Houston
    Jacksonville is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Houston
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston


    New Orleans Saints
    New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games
    New Orleans is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games on the road
    New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    New Orleans is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Baltimore
    New Orleans is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
    New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
    New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
    Baltimore Ravens
    Baltimore is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Baltimore is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
    Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
    Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
    Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
    Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
    Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans


    Dallas Cowboys
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Dallas's last 10 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
    Dallas is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Washington
    Dallas is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Washington
    Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Washington
    Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
    Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
    Washington Redskins
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 9 games
    Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games at home
    Washington is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Dallas
    Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
    Washington is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Dallas
    Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
    Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas


    Los Angeles Rams
    LA Rams is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
    LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Rams's last 12 games
    LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Rams's last 11 games on the road
    LA Rams is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
    LA Rams is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
    LA Rams is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
    LA Rams is 2-7-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
    San Francisco 49ers
    San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 8 games
    San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
    San Francisco is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games at home
    San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
    San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
    San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams
    San Francisco is 7-2-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against LA Rams
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams


    Cincinnati Bengals
    Cincinnati is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
    Cincinnati is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games
    Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    Cincinnati is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games on the road
    Cincinnati is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
    Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 10 games when playing Kansas City
    Cincinnati is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
    Kansas City Chiefs
    Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games
    Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games at home
    Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
    Kansas City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kansas City's last 10 games when playing Cincinnati
    Kansas City is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati



    Monday. October 22

    New York Giants
    NY Giants is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    NY Giants is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Giants's last 13 games
    NY Giants is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games on the road
    NY Giants is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of NY Giants's last 11 games when playing Atlanta
    NY Giants is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    NY Giants is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    Atlanta Falcons
    Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games
    Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing NY Giants
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Atlanta's last 11 games when playing NY Giants
    Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants
    Atlanta is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against NY Giants
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-16-2018 at 11:34 AM.

  7. #7
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    Nov 2004
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    Default

    NFL
    Dunkel

    Week 7



    DUNKEL'S HIGHLIGHTED GAME

    Denver at Arizona - Thursday October 18, 2018
    The Broncos head to Arizona on Thursday night and come into the contest with a 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games versus the Cardinals. Denver is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Denver (-2 1/2).

    THURSDAY OCTOBER 18, 2018

    Denver
    @
    Arizona


    Game 301-302
    October 18, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating: Denver
    130.196
    Arizona
    122.723
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: Denver
    by 7 1/2
    45
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: Denver
    by 2 1/2
    40 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Denver
    (-2 1/2); Over

    SUNDAY OCTOBER 21, 2018

    Tennessee
    @
    LA Chargers


    Game 451-452
    October 21, 2018 @ 9:30 am

    Dunkel Rating: Tennessee
    128.301
    LA Chargers
    136.700
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: LA Chargers
    by 8 1/2
    28
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: LA Chargers
    by 6 1/2
    45 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: LA Chargers
    (-6 1/2); Under

    New England
    @
    Chicago


    Game 453-454
    October 21, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating: New England
    137.559
    Chicago
    136.206
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: New England
    by 1 1/2
    52
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: New England
    by 3 1/2
    49 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Chicago
    (+3 1/2); Over

    Cleveland
    @
    Tampa Bay


    Game 955-956
    October 21, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating: Cleveland
    126.373
    Tampa Bay
    126.184
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: Cleveland
    Even
    47
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: Tampa Bay
    by 3
    49 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Cleveland
    (+3); Under

    Detroit
    @
    Miami


    Game 457-458
    October 21, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating: Detroit
    00.000
    Miami
    00.000
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: Detroit

    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: Detroit

    Dunkel Pick: Detroit
    ( );

    Carolina
    @
    Philadelphia


    Game 959-960
    October 21, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating: Carolina
    132.813
    Philadelphia
    135.269
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: Philadelphia
    by 2 1/2
    48
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: Philadelphia
    by 4 1/2
    45
    Dunkel Pick: Carolina
    (+4 1/2); Over

    Buffalo
    @
    Indianapolis


    Game 461-462
    October 21, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating: Buffalo
    120.722
    Indianapolis
    130.676
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: Indianapolis
    by 10
    30
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: Indianapolis
    by 6 1/2
    44
    Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis
    (-6 1/2); Under

    Cincinnati
    @
    Kansas City


    Game 463-464
    October 21, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating: Cincinnati
    134.581
    Kansas City
    137.239
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: Kansas City
    by 2 1/2
    64
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: Kansas City
    by 6
    58 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati
    (+6); Over

    Minnesota
    @
    NY Jets


    Game 465-466
    October 21, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating: Minnesota
    137.339
    NY Jets
    126.428
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: Minnesota
    by 11
    57
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: Minnesota
    by 3
    47
    Dunkel Pick: Minnesota
    (-3); Over

    Houston
    @
    Jacksonville


    Game 467-468
    October 21, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating: Houston
    123.310
    Jacksonville
    133.647
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: Jacksonville
    by 10 1/2
    41
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: Jacksonville
    by 4 1/2
    44
    Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville
    (-4 1/2); Under

    New Orleans
    @
    Baltimore


    Game 469-470
    October 21, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating: New Orleans
    134.941
    Baltimore
    142.368
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: Baltimore
    by 7 1/2
    29
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: Baltimore
    by 2 1/2
    51
    Dunkel Pick: Baltimore
    (-2 1/2); Under

    Dallas
    @
    Washington


    Game 471-472
    October 21, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating: Dallas
    133.132
    Washington
    130.549
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: Dallas
    by 2 1/2
    38
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: Washington
    by 2
    42
    Dunkel Pick: Dallas
    (+2); Under

    LA Rams
    @
    San Francisco


    Game 473-474
    October 21, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating: LA Rams
    135.512
    San Francisco
    127.580
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: LA Rams
    by 8
    56
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: LA Rams
    by 11
    52
    Dunkel Pick: San Francisco
    (+11); Over

    MONDAY OCTOBER 22, 2018

    NY Giants
    @
    Atlanta


    Game 475-476
    October 22, 2018 @ 8:15 pm

    Dunkel Rating: NY Giants
    125.296
    Atlanta
    129.293
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: Atlanta
    by 4
    61
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: Atlanta
    by 6 1/2
    54 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: NY Giants
    (+6 1/2); Over
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-16-2018 at 11:43 AM.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    73,864
    Credits
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    Default

    NFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 7



    Thursday
    Broncos (2-4) @ Cardinals (1-5)— Denver lost its last four games; they’re first team since ’66 Giants (who finished 1-12-1) to allow 270+ RY in consecutive games. Broncos are 0-2 on road, losing by 13-18 points at Ravens/Jets; since ’12 they’re 19-11-1 vs spread as road favorites, 16-9-1 vs NFC teams. Arizona is 0-3 at home, scoring 12.3 ppg (5 TD’s on 30 drives); they’ve yet to gain more than 269 yards in any game this season. Cardinals averaged 0.69 pts/drive on 39 drives that started 75+ yards from goal line, by far worst in NFL. Denver is 8-1-1 in series; last six series games were all decided by 17+ points. Broncos are 3-1 in Arizona, losing last visit here in 2010. Four of last five Bronco games, four of six Cardinal games stayed under.

    Sunday
    Titans (3-3) vs Chargers (4-2) (in London)— Longer trip across pond for Charger squad that won 10 of last 11 series games, but they played in Cleveland Sunday so trip was broken up; LA scored 33+ points in six of last eight series wins. Tennessee is 3-3, with all three wins by three points; they lost their last two games, scoring no TD’s on 18 drives on 13-12/21-0 losses- Mariota was sacked 11 times by the Ravens LW. In their last four games, Tennessee had 3-3-6-0 points at halftime. Chargers are 4-2, losing to Chiefs/Rams, who are a combined 11-1; Bolts allowed 35-38 points in their losses. Four of last five Titan games stayed under total; over is 5-1 in Charger tilts. Chargers were last over pond 10 years ago; this will be Titans’ first trip overseas.

    Patriots (4-2) @ Bears (3-2)
    — Chicago hammered the Patriots 46-10 in Super Bowl XX, but since then they’re 1-7 vs New England, losing 36-7/51-23 in last two series games. Bears are 2-0 at home this year, beating Seattle/Tampa; over last 2+ years, they’re 8-1-2 as home underdogs. Chicago’s two losses this year are by total of four points; three of Chicago’s five games this year were decided by 3 or fewer points. Patriots are 3-0 since Edelman/Gordon were activated, scoring 38-38-43 points. Since ’16, Patriots are 11-6 as road favorites, but they’re 0-2 on road this year, scoring 20-10 in losses to Jaguars/Lions. AFC East teams are 10-8 vs spread outside their division, but 2-6 on road. NFC North teams are 7-6 outside the division, 4-2 at home.

    Browns (2-3-1) @ Buccaneers (2-3)— Tampa Bay fired its DC Monday; they allowed 30-48-34 points in losing last three games after a 2-0 start; they were -8 in turnovers in last three games, allowing 30-38-24 first half points- they have zero takeaways in last two games.. Bucs allowed 21 TD’s on 55 drives this season, 10 TD’s on 20 drives in last two games. Cleveland got whacked by the Chargers last week, only game they’ve played this year that was decided by more than four points. Browns are 0-2 on road, losing 21-18 at Saints, 45-42 at Raiders- they’ve already played three OT games. Bucs won three of four series games, with Browns losing 17-3/17-14 in two visits here. Over is 5-0 in Tampa games, 2-4 in Cleveland games this season.

    Lions (2-3) @ Dolphins (4-2)
    — Osweiler threw for 380 yards LW in his first Miami start, so doubt it matters if Tannehill plays or not. Miami is 3-0 at home, winning by 7-8-3 points; under Gase, Dolphins are 9-6-3 vs spread at home, 3-0 this year. Lions won/covered five of last six post-bye games; while with Patriots, Patricia’s defense held Miami to 17 or fewer points in five of last seven meetings. Lions covered their last four games but are 0-2, with losses by 3-2 points at 49ers/Cowboys- they’re 3-0-1 vs spread in last four games on natural grass. Detroit won last two meetings 34-27/20-16, after losing seven of first nine meetings; Lions are 1-4 in South Beach, winning last visit here in ’10. Four of last five Detroit games went over total.

    Panthers (3-2) @ Eagles (3-3)
    — Philly won five of last seven series games, winning 28-23 in Charlotte LY; Panthers lost four of six visits here, with last one in ’14. Carolina is 0-2 on road (3-0 at home), losing 31-24 in Atlanta; 23-17 at Redskins; since ’12, Panthers are 20-9 as road underdogs- they allowed 26.5 ppg in last four games. Philly had three extra days to prep after being Giants last Thursday; under Pederson, Eagles are 6-4-1 as home favorites, 0-2 this season. Eagles allowed 12-16-13 points in their wins, 23+ points in losses; they outscored opponent in 2nd half in five of six games. Philly has 2nd-best red zone defense (3.52/drive), trailing only Miami. Three of last four Carolina games went over total.

    Bills (2-4) @ Colts (1-5)
    — Rookie QB Allen (elbow) is out here; Bills have to start Anderson, as Peterman is hideous. In their last three games, Buffalo scored two TD’s on 31 drives, with TD drives of 47-32 yards; they’ve converted 27.9% on 3rd down this year. Bills were +3/+2 in turnovers in their wins, are combined -4 in four losses; they’re 2-2 as road dogs, with losses by 44-22-7 points on road, and an upset win in Minnesota. Indy lost its last four games, giving up 37-38-42 points in last three games; they scored 20+ pts in second half of last three games. Home side won last five series games; Bills lost their last five visits here, with three of those losses by 16+ points. Last four Buffalo games stayed under; Colts’ last three games all went over.

    Bengals (4-2) @ Chiefs (5-1)
    — KC scored 31 second half points in Foxboro Sunday but still lost; they’re 6-0 vs spread this year, 2-0 as home favorites, winning 38-27/30-14 over 49ers/Jaguars. Chiefs covered eight of last ten games as home favorites. Bengals scored 27+ points in their four wins, 21-21 in their two losses; Cincy is 18-13-4 vs spread in last 35 games as road underdogs. Last couple years, Bengals are 0-4 vs spread week after losing to the rival Steelers. Cincy won last four series games by average score of 24-11; they split last six visits here. Under Reid, Chiefs are 12-10 vs spread coming off a loss. Over is 4-2 in Chief games, 4-2 in Bengal games. This game got flexed into the Sunday night slot; NBC probably expects another shootout.

    Vikings (3-2-1) @ Jets (3-3)
    — Minnesota allowed 16-21-17 points in its three wins; 27+ in its losses/tie; their three road games were decided by total of nine points. Under Zimmer, Vikings are 8-6 vs spread as road favorites; they have eight takeaways (+4) in their wins, zero (-5) in the other games. Minnesota ran ball for 126 yds/game in wins, tried only 18-6-17 runs in other three games. Jets scored 34-42-48 points in their wins, 12-17-12 in losses (18-40 (45%) on 3rd down in wins, 12-38 (31.6%) in losses). Under Bowles, Gang Green is 17-9-1 vs spread at home, 10-4-1 as home dogs. Jets won eight of 10 series games; Vikings are 0-5 here, with last visit here in ’10. Last three Jet games went over total.

    Texans (3-3) @ Jaguars (3-3)
    — Houston won its last three games by 3-3-7 points, with couple of OT wins and then a late defensive TD beating Bills LW; team that led at half won all six Texans games. Since 2015, Houston is 10-15 as road underdogs, 1-1 this year. Jaguars were outscored 70-21 in losing road games last two weeks; Jags are 2-1 at home- they scored 20+ in their wins, were held to 6-14-7 points in losses. Jax is 5-3 in last eight games as home favorites. This series has been swept the last seven years; Jaguars swept Texans 29-7/45-7 LY, after going 0-6 vs Houston the previous six years. Under is 4-2 in Texan games this year. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-11 vs spread so far this season.

    Saints (4-1) @ Ravens (4-2)
    — Baltimore has outscored opponents 62-15 in 2nd half this year; Ravens won three of last four games, allowing two TD’s on 35 drives in their last three tilts- they’re 2-0 at home, winning 47-3/27-14 over Bills/Broncos. Ravens are 9-6 in last 15 games as home favorites. Saints won last four games, covered last three; they’re 2-0 on road, winning 43-37/33-18 at Falcons/Giants. Baltimore won five of last six meetings, with average total in last four meetings, 58.5. Saints are 1-3 vs Ravens here, losing by 7-23-6 points; their lone win was in ’02. Last four Raven games stayed under total; over is 3-2 in Saints games. New Orleans is 7-1-1 vs spread in its last nine post-bye games, 12-7 in last 19 games as road underdogs.

    Cowboys (3-3) @ Redskins (3-2)
    — Dallas won eight of last ten series games, winning last four by average score of 32-21; Cowboys won their last five visits here, three by 4 or fewer points, but this year, Dallas is 3-0 at home, 0-3 on road, losing by 8-11-3 points, at Panthers, Seahawks, Texans- they’re 3-7 vs spread in last ten pre-bye games. Since ’15, Cowboys are 6-8 as road dogs- they’re 11-5-2 in last 18 games where spread was 3 or fewer points. Redskins are 2-10 vs spread in game following their last 12 wins; they scored 23+ points in their three wins, 9-14 in their two losses. Skins are 4-2 in last six games as home favorites- they scored 6 or fewer points in second half of every game this season, outscored 45-24. Under is 4-2 in Dallas games this season.

    Rams (6-0) @ 49ers (1-5)
    — Under McVay, Rams are 4-4 as road favorites, 1-2 this year, winning on foreign soil by 20-2-3 points at Oakland-Seattle-Denver. LA ran ball for 155-270 yards in last two games, expect them to throw more here, after Rodgers riddled Niners for 425 PY in Monday night’s 33-30 win. 49ers allowed 31 ppg in their last five games, losing last four; they’re 5-8 in last 13 games as home underdogs, splitting pair of home tilts SU this year. Niners ran ball for 147-174 yards in last two games. 49ers are 7-3 in last ten series games, with three of last five games decided by 3 or fewer points. Teams split last four games played here. Rams are first team since ’96 Packers to be double-digit road favorite while playing third straight game on road.

    Monday
    Giants (1-5) @ Falcons (3-3)— Atlanta defense allowed 37.5 ppg in last four games, yielding 19 TD’s on foes’ last 39 drives; in four home games, Falcons scored 17 TD’s on 40 drives, averaging 34.5 ppg, but they split those games (over 4-0). Atlanta is 9-7 vs spread in last 16 games as home favorites. Giants lost their last three games, giving up 33-33-34 points; they’ve been minus in turnovers in five of their last six games. Big Blue is 6-4 in last 10 games as road underdogs, 2-1 this year; their road losses are by 7-2 points- their only win was 27-22 in Houston. Giants won five of last seven series games; they’re 7-1 in last eight visits here, with last one in ’12. Over is 3-1 in last four Giant games, 5-0 in Atlanta’s last five games.
    Last edited by Udog; 10-18-2018 at 10:48 AM.

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    KUPP OUT A FEW WEEKS

    Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp has been diagnosed with an MCL sprain, which is actually good news considering how it looked when he was carted off the field in Sunday’s win at Denver. Although no announcement has been made, Kupp is likely out for at least Week 7.

    In Kupp’s absence, Josh Reynolds had his highest snap count of the season at 62 percent but only managed to turn two targets into one catch for minus-two yards. Kupp’s production instead went to Robert Woods, who had his best game since Week 2, grabbing seven balls for 109 yards on a day where no other Rams receiver had more than two grabs. Woods has now gone over 100 receiving yards in three of his last four games and has gone over 90 yards in four straight. In Week 7, the Rams visit the 49ers in a game where they shouldn’t have an issue putting up another big offensive number. Bettors should look to the Over for Woods’ receiving yards total.

    ALLEN UNLIKELY TO GO

    Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen is “week to week” with an elbow injury to his throwing arm after he was knocked out of Sunday’s loss at Houston. Coach Sean McDermott wouldn’t rule Allen out for Week 7 but referring to the injury in the manner he did is a pretty good sign that Allen will miss some time. As soon as Allen left Sunday’s game, so did Buffalo’s chances of pulling off another big road upset as Nathan “Pick” Peterman came in to throw two interceptions in just 12 attempts, including the pick-six that broke a 13-13 tie with just 1:23 remaining.

    The Bills’ offense has a decent matchup in Week 7 against the injury-ravaged Colts who just had the Jets put up 42 points against them. To be fair to the Indianapolis defense though, the offense put them in very tough spots with four turnovers, including a pick-six. That’s unlikely to happen again at home this week. The Colts should also have safety Clayton Geathers back for Week 7, which would be a boost for their defense. The markets for this matchup are still off the book, but if Allen is out, we don’t see Buffalo scoring much and we’ll be taking the Under for the Bills’ team total.

    FREEMAN OUT AGAIN

    Falcons coach Dan Quinn said on Monday that running back Devonta Freeman has already been ruled out of Week 7 when Atlanta hosts the New York Giants on Monday night. In Freeman’s absence in Week 6, we got a winner by backing Ito Smith to score a touchdown at any time and we’re going back to the well once again this week.

    Smith struggled against Tampa Bay, rushing 11 times for just 22 yards and adding two receptions for minus-one yard. But he did have the touchdown and continued getting more red-zone looks (4) than Telvin Coleman (2). In the four games without Freeman so far this season, Smith now has 15 red-zone looks to Coleman’s nine. The Falcons seem to prefer Smith inside the 20 and we’re going to back him to score a touchdown once again this week.

    PAYTON TALKS KAMARA

    New Orleans coach Sean Payton addressed Alvin Kamara’s lack of usage in Week 5 where he had just six carries and three receptions for 39 total yards, saying the two long scores of 60 and 40 yards attributed to it. Week 5 also happened to mark the return of Mark Ingram, who got 16 carries and two catches. However, Kamara backers can be optimistic from the fact that he wasn’t sitting on the bench all night, receiving 31 snaps to Ingram’s 36.

    The Saints are in a tough situation in Week 7, traveling to Baltimore to face a Ravens team playing its first home game since Week 3 and a defense that just shut out the Tennessee Titans. New Orleans is coming off a bye, though, and has had plenty of time to prepare and come up with an offensive plan that is going to heavily involve Kamara. He’s too important to the offense not to be one of the main pieces. Bettors should expect a big game from Kamara and we’re going to back him to score a touchdown at any time.

    OLSEN NOT EASED IN

    Panthers tight end Greg Olsen returned on Sunday after missing Weeks 2-5 and got right back into the swing of things by playing 59-of-60 snaps. Olsen didn’t have a huge game but managed to turn seven targets into four catches for 48 yards in the loss to Washington. Carolina has a tough test ahead of itself in Week 7 as it plays its second straight road game at Philadelphia. The Eagles have been better than average against tight ends so far this season, giving up 19 catches for 164 yards on 29 targets, but Cam Newton just doesn’t have many other weapons to go to. Olsen is the clear-cut No. 2 option offensively after Christian McCaffrey and we’re going to back the Over for his receptions total in Week 7.

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    Tech Trends - Week 7
    Bruce Marshall

    Thursday, Oct. 18

    DENVER at ARIZONA (FOX/NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)

    Vance Joseph 3-14-1 last 18 on board, 1-9 SU and vs. spread as visitor since LY. Denver now 1-11 SU and vs. spread on road since late 2016. Cards 3-0-1 vs. line last four in 2018. Broncos “under” 9-4 last 13, Cards “under” 7-3 last 10.
    Tech Edge: Cards and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


    Sunday, Oct. 21

    TENNESSEE vs. L.A. CHARGERS
    - at Wembley Stadium, London (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Titans just 4-9 vs. points last 13 away from Nashville. Titans also “under” 8-4 last 12.
    Tech Edge: “Under” and Chargers, based on “totals” and team trends.

    NEW ENGLAND at CHICAGO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Belichick 0-2 as road chalk this season but still 11-6 since 2016 in role. Bears however 10-3-2 last 15 vs. line at Soldier Field (2-0 for Nagy) and 8-1-1 as home dog since 2016. Belichick “under” 10-4 last 14 away, Bears “under” 7-3 last ten at home.
    Tech Edge: “Under” and Bears, based on “totals” and team trends.

    CLEVELAND at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Brownies 4-1-1 vs. line in 2018. Note Bucs “over” 5-0 this season, and Cleveland "over" 7-3 last ten away.
    Tech Edge: Browns and “over,” based on recent team and “totals” trends.

    DETROIT at MIAMI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Matt Patricia's Lions working on four covers in a row, and Detroit 6-3-1 vs. spread away since LY. Lions “over” 5-1 since late 2017. If favored here, note Dolphins entered this season 6-14-1 as home chalk since 2013 but 1-0 in role TY.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Lions and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

    CAROLINA at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Colts 3-1 vs. line last four away. Jets 3-5-1 last nine vs. line since late 2017.
    Tech Edge: Colts, based on recent trends.

    BUFFALO at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Bills on 8-4 “under” run since late LY. After “under” last five at Lucas Oil in 2017, Colts “over” first two at home in 2016.
    Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.

    MINNESOTA at N.Y. JETS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Vikes might be starting to rev up, now 12-3-2 last 17 on board since early 2017 after brief slump at start of season. Vikes 6-2-1 last 9 away vs. line in reg season. Jets however 9-2-1 vs. spread last 11 at MetLife and were 6-1-1 as home dog LY.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Vikings, based on team trends.

    HOUSTON at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Jags crushed Texans twice LY but only got a bit of a look at Watson (who didn’t start) in the opener, Deshaun didn’t play in 45-7 Jags romp. O’Brien 7-13 as dog since 2016. Jags 5-1 vs. spread last six reg season at home.
    Tech Edge: Jags, based on team trends.

    NEW ORLEANS at BALTIMORE (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)

    Raves 2-0 SU and vs. line at home this season, if Baltimore a dog note 6-2-1 mark last nine in role. Saints 7-3 vs. spread last 10 away from Superdome.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Ravens, based on team trends.

    DALLAS at WASHINGTON (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)

    Cowboys formful this season, home team 6-0 SU and vs. spread in Dallas games to date. Dallas 0-3 SU and vs. spread away after 5-2-1 vs. spread as visitor in 2017. Dallas 4-1 SU last five vs. Skins at FedEx, and road team 7-1 vs. line last 8 meetings. Skins on 27-15 “over” run since late 2015 and last six “over” in series.
    Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Cowboys, based on “totals” and team trends.

    L.A. RAMS at SAN FRANCISCO (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)

    Rams 10-6-1 last 17 in reg season vs. spread overall. SF however has won and covered 4 of last 5 in series (1-1 vs. McVay). Into GB last Monday, Rams “over” 7-3-1 last 11 reg season, Niners 7-1-1 “over” since late 2017. Last three in series “over” as well.
    Tech Edge: ”Over” and slight to Rams, based on “totals” and team trends.

    CINCINNATI at KANSAS CITY (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)

    After thriller vs. Pats, Chiefs have now covered ten in a row in regular-season action, winning nine of those outright. Andy Reid 8-2 last ten as reg season Arrowhead chalk. Marvin Lewis however is 9-4-1 last 14 as dog (3-1 TY). Bengals also “over” 5-2 since late 2017.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


    Monday, Oct. 22

    N.Y. GIANTS at ATLANTA (ESPN, 8:25 p.m. ET)

    Falcs only 7-11 v. spread in reg season since early 2017. Streaky “totals” team lately, now “over” 5-1 this season after closing 2017 with seven straight “under” results. Huge “over” 16-3 in 2016. G-Men 2-4 vs. line after Philly loss.
    Tech Edge: “Over,” based on recent “totals” trends.

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    GORDON’S ROLE EXPANDING

    New England coach Bill Belichick said on Tuesday that Josh Gordon’s “role is expanding weekly”. Gordon was on the field for 63-of-78 snaps in Week 6 against K.C. and received nine targets, though he only managed to secure five receptions for 42 yards, causing us to lose a bet after we had suggested taking the Over for his receiving yards total. Gordon also had 90 air yards which were a team high for the Patriots on Sunday night and ran 36 pass routes, which tied for the team-high with Julian Edelman.

    All stats considered, it seems a bit unlucky that Gordon couldn’t surpass his receiving yards total last week. Add in Belichick’s comments and we think he’s due for a big game this week against Chicago. We’re going back to the Over for Gordon’s receiving yards once the markets open later in the week.


    COLLINS FOLLOWS SCRIPTS

    Ravens running back Alex Collins has been extremely frustrating to try and predict so far this season, though we were able to get a winning bet last week by backing the Over for his rushing yards total. The game flowed in Collins’ favor with the Ravens holding a lead throughout and Collins received 19 carries and turned them into 54 yards and two touchdowns. One important note, however: Collins has zero targets while Buck Allen had three.

    In Week 7, the Ravens host the Saints as a 2.5-point favorite and a total of 49.5. The Saints come in off a bye, meaning they’ve had a lot of time to put together a game plan for Baltimore’s tough defense. They’re also on a roll offensively, averaging just under 40 points per game in their last three. As good as Baltimore’s defense has been, a good offense usually beats a good defense in today’s NFL and the Ravens are going to have to score to keep pace with the Saints. Unfortunately for Collins backers, that’ll likely script him out of the game and, for that reason, we’ll be taking the Under on his rushing total.


    UZOMAH FILLS IN NICELY

    The Bengals have had tough luck at the tight end position with serious injuries to both Tyler Eifert and Tyler Kroft. That gave C.J. Uzomah an opportunity and he took full advantage in Week 6, turning seven targets into six receptions for 54 yards. He also had 68 air yards, which was second on the Bengals to A.J. Green. It was clear from his usage that the tight end position is a big part of Cincy’s offense and anyone who gets out there is going to have the opportunity to put up decent offensive numbers.

    This week, the Bengals visit Kansas City on Sunday Night Football. Everyone knows the Chiefs are going to put up a huge number and that Andy Dalton is going to need to throw a lot to keep up. Another factor is that the Chiefs have given up the most yards in the NFL to opposing tight ends at 453 on 33 receptions. Uzomah is in an amazing spot to succeed on Sunday night and we’re backing the Over for his receptions and his receiving yards totals.


    MACK IS BACK

    Indianapolis running back Marlon Mack made his presence felt in his return to the lineup in Week 6, rushing 12 times for 89 yards and adding one catch for four yards. With Mack getting the vast majority of the carries, Nyheim Hines got the ball just three times and didn’t receive his first carry until the third quarter. Mack and Hines have now been on the field together for two games in 2018 (Week 2 and Week 6) and Mack has out-carried Hines 22-7.

    Mack doesn’t have a great matchup in Week 7 against a Bills defense ranked eighth in rushing yards against per game (92.5) and seventh in rush defense DVOA. But the Colts are a 7.5-point home favorite and, if they get a lead, it’ll mean lots of carries for Mack. We’re getting behind the Over on Mack’s rushing yards total against Buffalo.


    ENUNWA OUT A WHILE

    Jets receiver Quincy Enunwa has been diagnosed with a high-ankle sprain and will miss at least three weeks. Enunwa exited New York’s Week 6 win after just 15 snaps and Jermaine Kearse saw his usage spike, receiving a season-high 10 targets that he was able to turn into nine catches for 94 yards.

    Kearse has been running nearly 80 percent of his routes out of the slot over the last three weeks and that just happens to be where Enunwa was most productive over the first four weeks of the season. You can be sure Sam Darnold is going to feel some pressure on Sunday against a tough Vikings defense, meaning he’ll be looking to get the ball out quickly and that should mean a lot of targets for Kearse in the slot. We’re going to take the Over for his receptions total.

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    NFL's Top OVER Teams (based on Over %):

    1. Buccaneers 5-0
    t2. Falcons 5-1
    t2. Packers 5-1
    t2. Chargers 5-1
    t2. 49ers 5-1
    6. Lions 4-1
    t7. Bengals 4-2
    t7. Colts 4-2
    t7. Chiefs 4-2
    t7. Jets 4-2
    t7. Steelers 4-2


    NFL's Top UNDER Teams (based on Under %):

    t1. Cardinals 4-2
    t1. Ravens 4-2
    t1. Bills 4-2
    t1. Cowboys 4-2
    t1. Broncos 4-2
    t1. Texans 4-2
    t1. Raiders 4-2
    t1. Seahawks 4-2
    t1. Titans 4-2
    10. Redskins 3-2

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    The Bills have announced Derek Anderson over Nathan "Pick Six" Peterman as their starting quarterback for Week 7 @ Colts.
    Anderson was signed only eight days ago.
    Pointspread; Indy -7.5
    Total: 43.5

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    Dolphins' QB Ryan Tannehill (shoulder) has been ruled out for Week 7 vs. Lions.
    Brock Osweiler will make his second consecutive start.
    Pointspread: DET -2.5
    Total: 46.5

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    NFL's Top ATS Teams (based on ATS %):

    1. Chiefs 6-0 ATS
    2. Lions 4-1 ATS
    t3. Ravens 4-2 ATS
    t3. Bengals 4-2 ATS
    t3. Dolphins 4-2 ATS
    t3. Browns 4-2 ATS


    NFL's Worst ATS Teams (based on ATS %):

    32. Texans 1-5 ATS
    31. Broncos 1-4-1 ATS
    t24. Packers 2-4 ATS
    t24. Eagles 2-4 ATS
    t24. Falcons 2-4 ATS
    t24. Colts 2-4 ATS
    t24. Giants 2-4 ATS
    t24. Raiders 2-4 ATS
    t24. 49ers 2-4 ATS

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