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Thread: Monday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/15

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    Default Monday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/15

    Trends and Indexes

    Monday, October 15

    Good Luck on day #288 of 2018!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

    Top 6 picks in Week 6 of Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)

    1) Steelers +2.5 (1,092)- W

    2) Patriots -3.5 (1,004)- L

    3) Jaguars -3 (838)- L

    4) Bears -3 (799)- L

    5) Colts +2.5 (773)- L

    6) Falcons -3.5 (766)- W

    Season record: 15-19-2


    **********

    Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

    Patriots 43, Chiefs 40— This was 37th game in NFL history where losing team scored 40+ points; three of those games have been this year. Kansas City scored 31 points in the second half and still lost. Chiefs covered seven of last 10 games as road underdogs; they’re 6-0 vs spread this season. New England scored 38-38-43 points in its last three games.

    Steelers 28, Bengals 21— Marvin Lewis has coached the Bengals for 16 years; Pittsburgh is 16-2 in Cincinnati during that time (two playoff games). Antonio Brown scored the winning TD with 0:10 left on a 31-yard pass from Roethlisberger, who threw for 369 yards. Steelers are 10-6-1 vs spread in last 16 games as road dogs. Bengals play in Kansas City Sunday; they’ve lost their last five Sunday night games.

    Dolphins 31, Bears 28 OT— Chicago’s three road games were decided by total of six points; Miami’s backup QB Brock Osweiler emerged from obscurity to throw for 380 yards as Dolphins survived a goal line fumble in OT to improve to 4-2. Osweiler is a surprising 4-0 in OT games; his overall career record is 14-12.

    Bears turned ball over twice in the red zone, missed a 52-yard FG in OT.

    Chase Daniel is the Bears’ backup QB; he’s 32 and has been in the NFL for nine years- the guy has started two NFL games, but has banked $28,304,317. He’s completed 51 of 78 passes, with one TD, one INT in his career, and he’s made $28M+. Its good to be him.

    Falcons 34, Buccaneers 29— Tampa Bay outgained Atlanta 512-416 but lost its third game in a row, allowing 38 ppg. Reality for Bucs’ coach Dirk Koetter is that he’s probably going to get fired unless his team turns things around soon— the face of the franchise is a QB who was suspended three games for groping a Uber driver, and they went 2-1 while he was out. No bueno.

    Here is a breakdown of Atlanta’s offense:
    2 road games, both on grass fields: 22 drives, three TD’s, 14.5 ppg
    4 home games, all indoors on turf: 40 drives, 17 TD’s, 34.5 ppg

    Texans 20, Bills 13— Buffalo backup QB Nathan Peterman is the worst NFL QB I’ve seen since Jerry Golsteyn played for four teams from 1977-83, going 2-7 as a starter. Golsteyn threw two career TD passes, 13 INT’s, but Peterman may be worse— he threw a pick-6 in this game with 1:30 left as Texans have now won consecutive games by 3-3-7 points after an 0-3 start.

    Both teams scored one offensive TD in this game, on drives of 32-29 yards. Buffalo threw for 129 yards, giving them a total of 295 PY in their last three games. Deshaun Watson got sacked seven times; if the Texans don’t improve their pass blocking, Watson won’t last much longer.

    Redskins 23, Panthers 17— Since 2015, Redskins are now 16-7 vs spread coming off a loss; they had a 14-yard edge in field position in this game, converted on 7-16 3rd down plays, compared to 3-9 for Carolina. Washington allowed 9-14-17 points in its wins, 24-31 in its losses. Panthers are 3-0 at home, 0-2 on the road; they threw 40 passes, ran ball only 18 times in this game.

    Rams 23, Broncos 20— Denver is first team since the ’78 Buffalo Bills to give up 270+ rushing yards in consecutive games; in today’s pass-happy era, thats terrible. This was a hard-hitting game; lot of players limped off on both sides.

    On a cold day in Denver where the snow mostly stopped before the game, Rams ran the ball down the Broncos’ throats when it mattered most, on a 13-play, 72-yard drive that took 5:39 off the clock and ended with a FG that gave LA an insurmountable 23-13 lead.

    Jared Goff celebrated his 24th birthday with a win, but looked uncomfortable in sub-freezing temps; Rams play in Chicago December 9.

    Minnesota 27, Arizona 17— Cardinals are 3-0-1 vs spread in their last four games; they scored six TDs in last two games, but two of them are scored by their defense. Minnesota ran ball for 185 yards here and outgained Arizona, 411-269. Redbirds lost last nine visits to the Twin Cities; their last win here was in 1977, the Don Coryell era.

    NFL has seven new head coaches this year; they’re a combined 12-28 so far- three of those seven teams were .500 or better LY- Tennessee was in the damn playoffs, and they fired their coach.

    Chargers 38, Browns 14— Quietly, the Chargers are 4-2, with losses to Rams/Chiefs, who are a combined 11-1. Bolts ran ball for 246 yards and averaged 9.2 yds/pass attempt- they had seven plays of 20+ yards, five of them on first down.

    Chargers are 2-0 outside California, winning/covering in Buffalo/Cleveland- they like Lake Erie, but coach Anthony Lynn mustn’t like kickers- Sunday he used his 7th different kicker in his 22 games as a head coach.

    Jets 42, Colts 34— Gang Green scored 48-34-42 points in their two wins, 12-17-12 in their losses; Jet fans have to be fired up that they’ve scored 34+ points three times already with a rookie QB under center. Under Bowles, Jets are 17-9-1 vs spread at home.

    Andrew Luck threw for 301 yards and four TD’s, but he doesn’t get much help; on their second offensive play, Indy tried a screen pass that any high school team could execute, but instead it bounced off the Colts’ receiver and the Jets had an easy pick-6 to start their day with.

    Seahawks 27, Raiders 3— If I owned an NFL team and was paying my coach $100M over the next 10 years (yikes!!!), I’d expect more than the sorry performances the Raiders have been producing, especially since the last coach was 12-4 two years ago.

    Seattle ran ball for 171-190-155 yards in its last three games; they’ve won three of last four games and evened their record at 3-3. Oakland is 1-6-1 vs spread in its last eight pre-bye games.

    The last six NFL games in England/Mexico were won by an average of 26 points (32-6).

    Cowboys 40, Jaguars 7— Jacksonville’s uniforms looked like the old Memphis Maniax from the XFL; thats not a compliment, and their play was uglier than their uniforms. In their last three games, Jaguars are minus-8 in turnover ratio- not good.

    Dallas is 3-0 at home, 0-3 on the road; they scored four TD’s on 11 drives, after scoring total of three TD’s on 31 drives in previous three games. Cowboys had a 12-yard advantage in field position. Jaguars never had a snap in the Dallas red zone.

    Ravens 21, Titans 0— Not often an NFL team gets 11 sacks in a game, but Baltimore did here. while Tennessee had zero sacks. Total yardage in this ugly game was 361-106; Tennessee had only seven first downs, was 1-10 on 3rd down and ran only 40 plays- Baltimore ran 72.

    Only once in six games has Tennessee scored more than six points in the first half; 12-20-2 in last 34 games where spread was three or fewer points.

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    MLB
    Dunkel

    Monday, October 15


    Milwaukee @ LA Dodgers

    Game 953-954
    October 15, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Milwaukee
    (Chacin) 16.638
    LA Dodgers
    (Buehler) 20.192
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Dodgers
    by 3 1/2
    9
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Dodgers
    -170
    7
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Dodgers
    (-170); Over





    MLB
    Long Sheet

    Monday, October 15


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MILWAUKEE (100 - 68) at LA DODGERS (96 - 73) - 7:35 PM
    JHOULYS CHACIN (R) vs. WALKER BUEHLER (R)
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MILWAUKEE is 4-5 (+0.8 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
    5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.6 Units)

    JHOULYS CHACIN vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
    CHACIN is 11-9 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.42 and a WHIP of 1.528.
    His team's record is 14-11 (+4.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 15-9. (+5.1 units)

    WALKER BUEHLER vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
    BUEHLER is 0-1 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 1.29 and a WHIP of 0.714.
    His team's record is 0-1 (-1.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

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    MLB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Monday, October 15


    National League
    Brewers @ Dodgers (Series tied, 1-1)

    Chacin is 2-0, 1.15 in his last three starts, but didn’t finish 6th inning in any of them; under is 5-1 in his last six. Team in his starts: 24-12, 15-7 road Chacin gave up nine runs in 4.1 IP in a 21-5 loss in LA on August 2.
    5-inning record: 18-12-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 8-36

    Buehler is 1-0, 3.42 in his last four starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven. Team in his starts: 14-10, 9-3 home
    5-inning record: 14-6-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-24

    Dodgers won eight of their last ten games overall, eight of last nine at home. LA is in playoffs for 6th year in row; they lost 7th game of World Series LY. Dodgers’ last WS title was in 1988.

    Milwaukee won 12 of its last 13 games; they’ve won six in a row on the road. Brewers are in playoffs for first time since 2011- they lost Game 7 of the 1982 World Series.




    MLB
    Weather Report

    Monday, October 15







    MLB

    Monday, October 15


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Milwaukee Brewers
    Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    Milwaukee is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games
    Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    Milwaukee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
    Milwaukee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
    Milwaukee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
    Los Angeles Dodgers
    LA Dodgers is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
    LA Dodgers is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
    LA Dodgers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    LA Dodgers is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
    LA Dodgers is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
    LA Dodgers is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 8 games when playing at home against Milwaukee


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-15-2018 at 12:53 PM.

  4. #4
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    NLCS Game 3 bettors favoring the Dodgers at home and the Over
    Patrick Everson

    Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder Yasiel Puig (66) reacts while at bat during the fourth inning against the against the Atlanta Braves in game two of the 2018 NLDS.

    The National League Championship Series heads to Hollywood for the next two games. Covers checks in on the action and line movement for Game 3, with insights from Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics, and John Sheeran, who manages risk for FanDuel Sportsbook at the Meadowlands in New Jersey.

    Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers – Open: -162; Move: -165; Move: -162; Move: -165; Move: -173; Move: -175

    Los Angeles likely got what it wanted with a split of Games 1 and 2 on the road in the NLCS. The Dodgers (96-73) rebounded from a 6-5 series-opening loss with a late-innings rally to secure a 4-3 victory as -127 favorites Saturday.

    Milwaukee entered Game 2 on a 12-game winning streak and was in excellent position to make it 13 in a row, with a 3-0 lead through six innings. But the Brewers (100-68) gave up two runs in the seventh and two more in the eight, halting their hot streak.

    Bettors are heavy on the Dodgers at CG’s Vegas books, including at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Strip.

    “Eighty-seven percent of all dollars on the Dodgers, with a slight need to the Under, as well,” Bernanke said, noting the total opened at 7 (Over -120) and is now at 7.5 (Under -120). “As of now, an ideal result would be a low-scoring Brewers win.”

    FanDuel Sportsbook opened the Dodgers -170 and saw the number as low as -166 and as high as -188, with L.A. at -184 this afternoon.

    “Seventy-eight percent of moneyline handle is on the Dodgers,” Sheeran said, adding that runline bettors are all over Dodger blue, as well. “Ninety-nine percent of handle on the runline is on L.A. -1.5, at +120.”

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