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Thread: CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 18 (Fri., Oct. 12 - Sat., Oct. 13)

  1. #1
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    Default CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 18 (Fri., Oct. 12 - Sat., Oct. 13)

    Trends and Indexes

    Friday, October 12 - Saturday, October 13

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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  2. #2
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    CFL Betting Notes - Week 18
    David Schwab

    The extended Week 17 schedule due to Canada’s Thanksgiving holiday started with Winnipeg’s thrilling 40-32 victory over Ottawa in overtime on Friday night. The action shifted to British Columbia on Saturday night and the Lions squeezed out a 26-23 win against Toronto as a seven-point favorite.

    Monday’s holiday doubleheader started with Calgary grinding out a 12-6 road win against Montreal as a heavy 13 ½-point favorite. Saskatchewan remained the hottest team in the CFL right now with a 19-12 victory over Edmonton as a 3 ½-point favorite at home.

    Friday, Oct. 12

    Hamilton Tiger-Cats (7-7 SU, 6-7-1 ATS) at Toronto Argonauts (3-11 SU, 6-8 ATS)

    Point-spread: Hamilton -7
    Total: 52 ½

    Game Overview

    Ottawa’s loss combined with a Week 16 bye has the Tiger-Cats a game back in the East Division title race. They have already beaten Toronto once in a 42-28 romp on Sept. 3 as nine-point home favorites. The total went OVER 51 points in that game and it has gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in their last five outings. Hamilton is averaging 29.1 points per game as the third-highest scoring team in the CFL.

    The Argonauts’ extended straight-up losing streak reached six games and it was just the second time they covered against the spread during this slide. The total stayed UNDER the closing 52-point line against the Lions after going OVER in their previous four games. Toronto is 3-1 ATS in its last four home games with the total going OVER in four of its last five games played at home.

    Betting Trends

    -- Hamilton has a 7-2 edge ATS in its last nine road games against the Argonauts and the total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings in Toronto.


    Saturday, Oct. 13

    Saskatchewan Roughriders (10-5 SU, 8-7 ATS) at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (8-7 SU, 8-6-1 ATS)

    Point-spread: Winnipeg -3 ½
    Total: 53

    Game Overview

    Saskatchewan has just one SU loss in its last eight games with Monday’s win against Edmonton. This was the first time the Roughriders were able to cover in their last four games and the total stayed UNDER for the first time in their last six contests. Defensive end Willie Jefferson returned a late fourth-quarter interception 49 yards for a score in Monday’s come-from-behind victory.

    The Blue Bombers helped their postseason plans with Friday’s win while extending their current winning streak to three games both SU and ATS. This followed a four-game losing streak (SU and ATS) in what has been a wild roller-coaster ride since early August. Matt Nichols threw for 265 yards and three touchdowns against Ottawa and, on the year, he has completed 64.5 percent of his 341 passing attempts for 2,633 yards and 15 scores.

    Betting Trends

    -- Saskatchewan has already won a home-and-home series against Winnipeg both SU and ATS heading into the third meeting this season between the two West Division foes. It won the first two meetings by a combined score of 63-50 and the total went OVER in each of those games.

    Ottawa RedBlacks (8-6 SU, 6-8 ATS) at Edmonton Eskimos (7-8 SU, 6-9 ATS)
    Point-spread: Edmonton -3 ½
    Total: 51

    Game Overview

    Despite Friday’s loss to Winnipeg, the RedBlacks still clinched a playoff berth in the East. The total went OVER 52 ½ points in that game after staying UNDER in four of their previous six games. Trevor Harris played one of his better games of the year last Friday night with 349 yards passing and three scoring strikes against no interceptions. William Powell turned in another strong effort running the ball with 95 yards on 14 carries.

    Edmonton is currently on the outside looking in when it comes to the CFL playoff picture in the West. Mike Reilly was picked off three times in Monday’s loss and he completed just 48.1 percent of his 27 passing attempts on the day. This was the Eskimos’ third loss in a row both SU and ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in all three setbacks after this once potent offense was held to a combined 30 points.

    Betting Trends

    -- Edmonton has won eight of its last nine home games against Ottawa SU. It has a 6-3 edge ATS and the total has gone OVER in six of those nine meetings.

    British Columbia Lions (7-7 AU, 8-6 ATS) at Calgary Stampeders (12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS)
    Point-spread: Calgary-10 ½
    Total: 49 ½

    Game Overview

    The Lions are right in the thick of things for a playoff berth in the jumbled West Division standings. With Saturday’s win, they are 4-1 SU in their last five games with a 3-2 record ATS. With the total staying UNDER against Toronto, it has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in eight of BC’s last nine games. Jonathon Jennings continues to get the call at quarterback for an injured Travis Lulay on an offense that is averaging 23.6 PPG.

    Calgary’s lead over Saskatchewan in the West sits at a game and half, so it still needs to win on Saturday to stay on track for another division title. There has to be some concern with Monday’s effort, but for some reason Montreal always plays the Stampeders’ tough. This is still a team that is averaging 30.7 points per game behind Bo Levi Mitchel at quarterback while holding opposing teams to 19.3 PPG.

    Betting Trends

    -- Calgary beat BC 27-18 in early August as a 12 ½-point home favorite to extend its SU winning streak against the Lions to five games. The total stayed UNDER 49 ½ points in that game and it has stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-13-2018 at 12:36 AM.

  3. #3
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    CFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 18


    Friday, October 12

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    HAMILTON (7 - 7) at TORONTO (3 - 11) - 10/12/2018, 7:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    HAMILTON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing on a Friday over the last 2 seasons.
    TORONTO is 22-44 ATS (-26.4 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 since 1996.
    TORONTO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing on a Friday over the last 3 seasons.
    TORONTO is 20-37 ATS (-20.7 Units) in home games in October games since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    HAMILTON is 5-3 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    HAMILTON is 5-3 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Saturday, October 13

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    SASKATCHEWAN (10 - 5) at WINNIPEG (8 - 7) - 10/13/2018, 2:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    SASKATCHEWAN is 85-59 ATS (+20.1 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
    SASKATCHEWAN is 140-101 ATS (+28.9 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
    SASKATCHEWAN is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SASKATCHEWAN is 5-2 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
    WINNIPEG is 4-3 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    OTTAWA (8 - 6) at EDMONTON (7 - 8) - 10/13/2018, 5:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OTTAWA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
    OTTAWA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 2 seasons.
    OTTAWA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
    OTTAWA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    OTTAWA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
    EDMONTON is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
    EDMONTON is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
    EDMONTON is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) off a division game this season.
    EDMONTON is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    OTTAWA is 4-1 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
    OTTAWA is 4-2 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    BRITISH COLUMBIA (7 - 7) at CALGARY (12 - 2) - 10/13/2018, 8:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CALGARY is 134-99 ATS (+25.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CALGARY is 4-3 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
    CALGARY is 6-1 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CFL

    Week 18


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    Trend Report
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    Friday, October 12

    Hamilton Tiger-Cats
    Hamilton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hamilton's last 5 games
    Hamilton is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hamilton's last 6 games on the road
    Hamilton is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Toronto
    Hamilton is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Hamilton's last 8 games when playing Toronto
    Hamilton is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hamilton's last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    Toronto Argonauts
    Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games
    Toronto is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games at home
    Toronto is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Hamilton
    Toronto is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Hamilton
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 8 games when playing Hamilton
    Toronto is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Hamilton
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Hamilton



    Saturday, October 13

    Saskatchewan Roughriders
    Saskatchewan is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games
    Saskatchewan is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Saskatchewan's last 7 games on the road
    Saskatchewan is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Winnipeg
    Saskatchewan is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Winnipeg
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
    Saskatchewan is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
    Winnipeg Blue Bombers
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 7 games
    Winnipeg is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Winnipeg's last 9 games at home
    Winnipeg is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Saskatchewan
    Winnipeg is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing Saskatchewan
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan
    Winnipeg is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan


    Ottawa RedBlacks
    Ottawa is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
    Ottawa is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games on the road
    Ottawa is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Edmonton
    Ottawa is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
    Ottawa is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games when playing Edmonton
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games when playing Edmonton
    Ottawa is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
    Ottawa is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Ottawa's last 9 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
    Edmonton Eskimos
    Edmonton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games
    Edmonton is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
    Edmonton is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Ottawa
    Edmonton is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games when playing Ottawa
    Edmonton is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Ottawa
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games when playing Ottawa
    Edmonton is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Ottawa
    Edmonton is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Ottawa
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Edmonton's last 9 games when playing at home against Ottawa


    British Columbia Lions
    British Columbia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of British Columbia's last 7 games
    British Columbia is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
    British Columbia is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    British Columbia is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
    British Columbia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games when playing Calgary
    British Columbia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Calgary
    Calgary Stampeders
    Calgary is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Calgary's last 6 games
    Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Calgary's last 7 games at home
    Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing British Columbia
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games when playing British Columbia
    Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against British Columbia


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  4. #4
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    CFL
    Dunkel

    Week 18



    Friday, October 12

    Hamilton @ Toronto

    Game 661-662
    October 12, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Hamilton
    112.473
    Toronto
    109.825
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Hamilton
    by 2 1/2
    59
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Hamilton
    by 7 1/2
    52 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Toronto
    (+7 1/2); Over



    Saturday, October 13

    Saskatchewan @ Winnipeg

    Game 663-664
    October 13, 2018 @ 2:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Saskatchewan
    116.810
    Winnipeg
    112.980
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Saskatchewan
    by 4
    56
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Winnipeg
    by 3 1/2
    53
    Dunkel Pick:
    Saskatchewan
    (+3 1/2); Over

    Ottawa @ Edmonton


    Game 665-666
    October 13, 2018 @ 5:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Ottawa
    108.510
    Edmonton
    114.042
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Edmonton
    by 5 1/2
    56
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Edmonton
    by 3 1/2
    51
    Dunkel Pick:
    Edmonton
    (-3 1/2); Over

    BC Lions @ Calgary


    Game 667-668
    October 13, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    BC Lions
    104.657
    Calgary
    123.636
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Calgary
    by 19
    51
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Calgary
    by 10 1/2
    49 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Calgary
    (-10 1/2); Over

  5. #5
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    CFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 18



    Hamilton (7-7) (-7.5, 52.5) @ Toronto (3-11)— TiCats already beat Toronto twice this year, 42-28/36-25; Hamilton won six of last nine series games- teams split last four games played here. Last three series games went over the total. TiCats won four of last six games, split last four on road; they’re 22 as road favorites— four of their last five games went over. Argonauts lost their last six games (2-4 vs spread); they allowed 30+ points in four of last five. Toronto is 4-3 as a home underdog- over is 7-3 in their last ten games.

    Saskatchewan (10-5) @ Winnipeg (8-7) (-3.5, 53)
    — Roughriders won first two meetings this year, 31-23/32-27, but they lost three of last four visits here. Over is 8-2 in last ten series games. Saskatchewan won three in row, seven of last eight games; they won last four road games by total of 14 points. Five of their last six games went over the total. Blue Bombers scored 101 points in winning last three games; they won in OT in Ottawa LW. Winnipeg is 3-2-1 as home favorites; over is 7-3 in their last ten games.

    Ottawa (8-6) @ Edmonton (7-8) (-3.5, 51)
    — RedBlacks beat Edmonton 28-15 at home in first meeting Sept 22, outgaining Eskimos 470-335; Ottawa won four of last six series games, but lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 2-6-29 points. Six of last eight series games stayed under. Ottawa is 2-3 in last five games after an OT loss LW; RedBlacks are 3-2 as road underdogs- over is 3-1 in their last four road games. Eskimos lost their last three games, scoring 15-3-12 points; they’re 2-4 as home favorites. Under is 5-1 in their last six games.

    BC Lions (7-7) @ Calgary (12-2) (-10.5, 49.5)
    — Stampeders won eight of last nine series games, including last five played here (3-2 vs spread); they beat Lions 27-18 (-12.5) in first meeting this year, back in August. Under is 7-2 in last nine series games. BC won four of its last five games, with last two wins by FG each; Lions are 2-3 as road underdogs- under is 7-1-1 in their last nine games. Calgary is 3-5 vs spread in its last eight games, 4-3 as home favorites, 1-3 when laying double digits- over is 5-2 in their last seven games.

    Through Week 17:
    Favorites 27-38; Under 37-25-2
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-13-2018 at 12:41 AM.

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