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Thread: Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/11

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    Default Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/11

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, October 11

    Good Luck on day #284 of 2018!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Last edited by Udog; 10-11-2018 at 08:16 AM.

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    Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

    NFL trends for Week 6:

    — Cleveland covered five of its last six games.

    — Kansas City covered its last nine games.

    — Vikings are 16-4 in last 20 games as home favorites.

    — Patriots covered 12 of their last 15 games.

    — Seahawks covered six of last seven pre-bye games.

    — Dallas is 10-5-1 vs spread in last 16 games vs AFC teams.

    **********

    Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but…….

    13) Weird season for the Cleveland Indians, who won a weak AL Central by 13 games; Twins finished second, but at 78-84, so Indians coasted into the playoffs with a lame bullpen that blew many games the season. When Cleveland got swept by the Astros, I was wondering if there are Indian fans who even think their team had that good a season?

    12) Watching Jose Altuve hit a double in the gap in left-center Monday, no way is he 100%; there is something wrong with his knee. Normally he would’ve rounded second and threatened to try for a triple- he labored just to get to second base.

    11) Why do playoff games have six umpires, with extra umps in outfield on each foul line? With instant replay, they just aren’t needed. They probably weren’t needed before replay.

    10) Los Angeles Rams scored 173 points in their first five games; nine years ago, the Rams went 1-15 and scored 175 points all season.

    9) There are 11 unbeaten teams left in college football; Cincinnati is ranked #25, lowest of those 11 unbeatens.

    8) There are 27 players who won five NBA championship rings; 13 of those 27 guys also won a sixth championship ring.

    7) Los Angeles Dodgers’ GM Farhan Zaidi is an MIT graduate with a doctorate in economics; when he was a kid, his father moved their family from Canada to the Philippines. Zaidi found a copy of Bill James’ Baseball Abstract in a bookstore on a military base, and from reading that book he studied his way into becoming a major league GM. Pretty cool.

    6) When the Giants/Dodgers moved to California in 1958, the Dodgers won three World Series in their first eight years in LA, but they also finished under .500 four times in their first 11 seasons there. Dodgers haven’t won a World Series since 1988.

    Meanwhile, the Giants had winning seasons their first 14 years in the Bay Area, but never won a World Series in SF until 2010, when they won three in five years.

    5) 76ers star Joel Embiid signed a multi-year endorsement contract with Under Armour, making him highest-paid big man on a shoe deal. Embiid had been with Adidas.

    Lot of money in sneakers.

    4) Kansas Jayhawks lost their last three games, so they fired offensive coordinator Doug Meacham this week; HC David Beaty will take over his duties. Kansas has a bye this week; they play Texas Tech next.

    3) Tweet of the Day, from Nick Friedell, who covers the NBA for ESPN.com:

    “Rajon Rondo remains one of the most unique personalities in the NBA. He just helped workers at T-Mobile Arena roll some beer kegs down the hallway before walking back into the Lakers locker room.”

    2) Final Four baseball teams: Brewers-Dodgers-Astros-Red Sox

    Only one guy ever played for all four teams; utility man Mark Loretta.

    1) RIP to coach Tex Winter, one of the greatest basketball minds ever, who passed away this week at age 96. Winter is probably best known as one of Phil Jackson’s lieutenants in the NBA, but he also won 453 games as a college head coach. RIP, sir.
    Last edited by Udog; 10-11-2018 at 08:23 AM.

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    MLB Championship Series Prices:

    NLCS

    Dodgers -150
    Brewers +130

    ALCS

    Astros -120
    Red Sox Even

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    NLCS Cheat Sheet
    Kevin Rogers

    2018 Head-to-Head Matchups (Dodgers 4-3, Over 4-3)

    Dodgers vs. Brewers (Miller Park)
    July 20 – Dodgers 6, Brewers 4 (Over 9)
    July 21 – Brewers 4, Dodgers 2 (Under 8)
    July 22 – Dodgers 11, Brewers 2 (Over 8 ½)

    Brewers vs. Dodgers (Dodger Stadium)
    July 30 – Brewers 5, Dodgers 2 (Under 7 ½)
    July 31 – Brewers 1, Dodgers 0 (Under 8 ½)
    August 1 – Dodgers 6, Brewers 4 (Over 8)
    August 2 – Dodgers 21, Brewers 5 (Over 7 ½)

    HOW THEY GOT HERE

    The Brewers (96-67) are the hottest team in baseball entering the League Championship Series. Milwaukee has won 11 consecutive games, which includes the divisional tiebreaker victory at Wrigley Field over the Cubs. The Brewers locked up not only the NL Central title, but secured the all-important home-field advantage throughout the National League playoffs.

    Milwaukee quickly disposed of Colorado in a three-game sweep in the NLDS to advance to its first Championship Series since 2011. For the exception of a ninth-inning rally to score two runs in Game 1, Colorado’s offense was shut down by the Milwaukee pitching staff in this series. The Rockies tallied a total of two runs in 28 innings, while getting blanked in the final two games. All three games finished UNDER the total, as none of Milwaukee’s starting pitchers allowed a run.

    The Dodgers (92-71) also needed a victory in a division title contest as they routed the Rockies to pick up their sixth consecutive NL West championship. Los Angeles ran a tight race alongside Colorado and Arizona for the top spot in the West all season long until the Dodgers pulled away in the final five weeks. After the Cardinals swept the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine in late August, Los Angeles sat at 67-61. The Dodgers went 24-10 in the final 34 regular season games to clinch a playoff spot, while going 15-4 in the past 19 home contests.

    Los Angeles needed four games to finish off an upstart Atlanta squad in the NLDS. The Dodgers blanked the Braves in each of the first two games, but couldn’t pull off the sweep as Los Angeles fell to Atlanta, 6-5 in Game 3 at SunTrust Park. L.A. rallied past Atlanta, 6-2 in Game 4 to advance to its third consecutive National League Championship Series.

    SEASON SERIES

    In seven meetings this season, the Dodgers captured four victories, including two wins at Miller Park in July. Los Angeles held off Milwaukee in the opener, 6-4, highlighted by two hits from Manny Machado in his Dodgers’ debut after getting traded from Baltimore. The Brewers won the second contest as nearly a +160 underdog against Clayton Kershaw as Milwaukee erased an early 2-0 deficit to pick up a 4-2 triumph. The Dodgers grabbed the rubber match in blowout fashion, 11-2, as Los Angeles allowed two early runs before it put together a pair of five-run innings for the series victory.

    When the teams met in southern California over a week later, the Brewers rebounded with a pair of wins, while limiting the Dodgers to two runs in those victories. Eric Thames knocked out a three-run homer in the series opening 5-2 win, while Wade Miley tossed seven scoreless innings in a 2-0 triumph in Game 2. The Dodgers broke through in Game 3 on a Yasmani Grandal walk-off homer in the 10th inning, 6-4 followed up by a 21-5 rout of Milwaukee in the finale to grab the series split.

    PLAYOFF HISTORY

    The Dodgers and Brewers have never met in the playoffs, as Milwaukee has played in the National League since 1998. Los Angeles is seeking back-to-back National League pennants for the first time since 1977-78, while losing in four of its past five NLCS appearances dating back to 2008. Milwaukee last reached the NLCS in 2011 as the Brewers fell in six games to the Cardinals, while the Brew Crew is looking for their first World Series appearance since 1982.

    PITCHERS TO WATCH

    Obviously the most decorated pitcher in this series is Dodgers’ ace Clayton Kershaw (9-5, 2.73 ERA), who silenced the Braves’ bats in Game 2 of the NLDS. Kershaw tossed eight scoreless innings and scattered two hits in a 3-0 shutout as the Dodgers have won each of the left-hander’s last nine starts. Los Angeles owns a 5-0 mark in each of Kershaw’s last five home playoff starts, but the road is a different story for the three-time Cy Young winner. Kershaw has allowed 11 earned runs in his past two road playoff outings, while the Dodgers are 0-2 in those affairs.

    Jhoulys Chacin (15-8, 3.56 ERA) picked up a career-high in victories in his first season in Milwaukee. Chacin was an integral part of lifting the Brewers to the NL Central title by allowing one hit and one run in 5.2 innings of the division championship win over the Cubs. The right-hander followed that performance up by yielding three hits in five scoreless innings of a 4-0 triumph over Colorado in Game 2 of the NLDS. However, Chacin was lit up by the Dodgers in the 16-run defeat in August as he was tagged for nine runs in 4.1 innings opposite Kershaw.

    Southpaw Wade Miley (5-2, 2.57 ERA) is unbeaten in his past eight starts for Milwaukee, while having the Dodgers’ number in two starts. In 13 innings against Los Angeles, Miley allowed six hits and one run, as the Brewers split those two games. Miley finished one out from a victory against Colorado in Game 3 of the NLDS as he tossed 4.2 scoreless innings in the 6-0 rout as +145 underdogs in the series clincher.

    SERIES SCHEDULE (All games on FOX/FS1)

    Game 1 – Friday, October 12 – at Milwaukee
    Game 2 – Saturday, October 13 - at Milwaukee
    Game 3 – Monday, October 15 - at Los Angeles
    Game 4 – Tuesday, October 16 - at Los Angeles
    *Game 5 – Wednesday, October 17 - at Los Angeles
    *Game 6 – Friday, October 19 - at Milwaukee
    *Game 7 – Saturday, October 20 - at Milwaukee

    * - If Necessary

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    ALCS Cheat Sheet
    Kevin Rogers

    2018 Head-to-Head Matchups (Astros 4-3, Over 5-2)

    Red Sox vs. Astros (Minute Maid Park)
    May 31 – Astros 4, Red Sox 2 (Under 8 ½)
    June 1 – Astros 7, Red Sox 3 (Over 7)
    June 2 – Red Sox 5, Astros 4 (Over 7 ½)
    June 3 – Red Sox 9, Astros 3 (Over 7 ½)

    Astros vs. Red Sox (Fenway Park)
    September 7 – Astros 6, Red Sox 3 (Over 8 ½)
    September 8 – Astros 5, Red Sox 3 (Under 9)
    September 9 – Red Sox 6, Astros 5 (Over 8 ½)

    HOW THEY GOT HERE

    The Red Sox (108-54) won the most games in franchise history this season as they reached the ALCS for the first time since 2013 after knocking out the Yankees in four games of the ALDS. Boston split the first two games against New York at Fenway Park, but rebounded for a pair of victories in the Bronx, capped off by Tuesday’s Game 4 clincher, 4-3.

    Boston won 93 games each of the last two seasons on its way to the AL East title, but in Alex Cora’s first season as manager, the Red Sox jumped to 108 victories, its most since winning 104 games in 1946. The difference this season is the Red Sox were able to escape the ALDS unscathed after losing to Cleveland in 2016 and Houston in 2017.

    In those two series losses to the Indians and Astros, the Red Sox posted an 0-4 road record. Boston put together a 51-30 mark away from Fenway this season, which ranked second in the league behind Houston’s 57-24 road ledger. The Red Sox are on a 4-1 road underdog run since late September, which includes three wins over the Yankees and a victory at Cleveland.

    The Astros (103-59) are back in the ALCS for the second consecutive season as Houston seeks back-to-back World Series titles. Houston closed the regular season on a 28-9 run to capture the AL West title, while finishing off Cleveland in a three-game sweep in the ALDS.

    Houston’s pitching staff stifled the Cleveland bats by allowing six runs in the three games, while pulling away in the Game 3 clincher by scoring 10 runs in the final three innings of an 11-3 rout at Progressive Field. The Astros knocked out eight home runs in the series sweep, including a pair of jacks from outfielder George Springer in the Game 3 rout.

    SEASON SERIES

    The Astros grabbed four of seven meetings from the Red Sox, as Houston won the first two matchups in each series. In the first series at Minute Maid Park in June, Houston captured the opener, 4-2 thanks to a pair of fourth inning runs to break a 2-2 tie. The two teams combined for five homers in the second game with aces Gerrit Cole and Chris Sale on the mound, but the Astros pulled away for a 7-3 victory.

    The Red Sox rebounded in the next two games to grab a split as Andrew Benintendi and Christian Vasquez each went deep in the seventh inning of a 5-4 win in Game 3. Boston destroyed Houston in the series finale, 9-3 as the Red Sox handed Charlie Morton his first loss of the season by tagging the Astros’ right-hander for six runs in 5.1 innings of work.

    In the following series at Fenway Park in September, the Astros rallied from a 2-0 deficit to score six late runs in a 6-3 victory in the opener. Morton rebounded in his second opportunity against the Red Sox by allowing two runs in five innings of a 5-3 victory in Game 2, while Alex Bregman drilled his 30th homer of the season. The Red Sox avoided the sweep with a 6-5 walk-off victory in the series finale on Mitch Moreland’s RBI single, while J.D. Martinez drove in four runs for Boston.

    PLAYOFF HISTORY

    Houston and Boston are meeting in the playoffs for the second straight season as the Astros eliminated the Red Sox in four games of the ALDS in 2017. The Astros wacked the Red Sox in back-to-back 8-2 blowouts at Minute Maid Park to jump out to a commanding 2-0 lead, highlighted by racking Sale in the series opener for seven runs in five innings.

    The Red Sox avoided elimination in Game 3 by erasing an early 3-0 deficit to score 10 unanswered runs in a 10-3 rout at Fenway Park. Game 4 was certainly quirky as both teams turned to their aces out of the bullpen as Justin Verlander tossed 2.2 innings and Sale lasted 4.2 innings in relief. However, Houston knocked out Boston by scoring three late runs in a 5-4 win as short road favorites.

    PITCHERS TO WATCH

    There is no shortage of aces to go around for these two teams. Verlander (16-9, 2.52 ERA) is unbeaten in his last six starts, while shutting down the Indians in Game 1 of the ALDS by scattering two hits in 5.1 innings of work. Verlander faced the Red Sox once this season as the Astros lost as -200 favorites, 5-4 on June 2. The former MVP and Cy Young winner did his part by allowing three hits and two earned runs in six innings, but the Red Sox scored three runs in the seventh inning for the win. The Astros have won five of Verlander’s six playoff starts since he was acquired last season, but the only loss came on the road to the Dodgers in the World Series.

    Cole (15-5, 2.88 ERA) hasn’t lost a decision since August 10 against Seattle, while the Astros are 7-0 in his past seven outings. The former Pirates’ standout struck out 12 in a Game 2 victory over Cleveland in the ALDS, while picking up his first postseason win since 2013 against the Cardinals. Cole will start Game 2 at Fenway Park as the Astros posted a 7-3 record and 2.77 ERA away from Minute Maid Park this season. The Astros won each of Cole’s starts against the Red Sox in 2018, as the right-hander allowed five earned runs in 13 innings of work.

    The Red Sox send out Sale (12-4, 2.11 ERA) in the series opener as the Cy Young candidate hasn’t pitched past the sixth inning since July 27. Sale spent a month on the disabled list with a shoulder injury, but returned in September to four no-decisions (3-1 team record). The southpaw picked up a Game 1 ALDS win against the Yankees by tossing 5.1 innings of five-hit ball and striking out eight in a 5-4 victory. The Red Sox won nine of Sale’s 13 home starts this season, although the four losses came as a favorite of -230 or higher.

    David Price (16-7, 3.58 ERA) has been postseason poison in his career as his teams are 0-7 in his past seven playoff starts dating back to 2013. Price didn’t escape the second inning in the Game 2 ALDS loss to the Yankees, as the southpaw is set to start Game 2 against the Astros. However, Price was dominant against this Houston lineup in two starts this season by giving up five runs and seven hits, while striking out 17 in 12.1 innings of work.

    SERIES SCHEDULE (All games on TBS)

    Game 1 – Saturday, October 13 – at Boston
    Game 2 – Sunday, October 14 – at Boston
    Game 3 – Tuesday, October 16 – at Houston
    Game 4 – Wednesday, October 17 – at Houston
    *Game 5 – Thursday, October 18 – at Houston
    *Game 6 – Saturday, October 20 – at Boston
    *Game 7 – Sunday, October 21 – at Boston

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    MLB
    Long Sheet

    Friday, October 12


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    LA DODGERS (95 - 72) at MILWAUKEE (99 - 67) - 8:05 PM
    CLAYTON KERSHAW (L) vs. GIO GONZALEZ (L)
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA DODGERS are 95-72 (-20.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
    LA DODGERS are 66-54 (-19.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 99-67 (+27.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 53-30 (+15.8 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 20-8 (+12.6 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 68-35 (+31.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 72-55 (+24.6 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
    MILWAUKEE is 100-82 (+15.6 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
    MILWAUKEE is 47-34 (+15.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 25-14 (+14.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
    KERSHAW is 41-11 (+21.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
    GONZALEZ is 7-15 (-13.6 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MILWAUKEE is 3-4 (+0.4 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
    4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.7 Units)

    CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
    KERSHAW is 6-5 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 2.86 and a WHIP of 1.018.
    His team's record is 8-6 (-2.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-7. (-2.4 units)

    GIO GONZALEZ vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
    GONZALEZ is 4-1 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 2.34 and a WHIP of 1.016.
    His team's record is 5-2 (+3.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-3. (+0.7 units)

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    HOUSTON (106 - 59) at BOSTON (111 - 55) - 8:05 PM
    JUSTIN VERLANDER (R) vs. CHRIS SALE (L)
    Top Trends for this game.
    HOUSTON is 275-313 (-72.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday since 1997.
    BOSTON is 111-55 (+34.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
    BOSTON is 88-39 (+32.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
    BOSTON is 75-35 (+23.7 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
    BOSTON is 42-29 (+12.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    HOUSTON is 58-24 (+25.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
    HOUSTON is 37-14 (+19.1 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
    HOUSTON is 24-6 (+16.7 Units) against the money line in road games against left-handed starters this season.
    HOUSTON is 42-15 (+22.0 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
    HOUSTON is 38-16 (+18.2 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 49-28 (+17.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    BOSTON is 240-240 (-64.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BOSTON is 3-4 (+0.4 Units) against HOUSTON this season
    5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.9 Units)

    JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. BOSTON since 1997
    VERLANDER is 6-6 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 2.79 and a WHIP of 1.103.
    His team's record is 9-11 (-4.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-10. (-3.6 units)

    CHRIS SALE vs. HOUSTON since 1997
    SALE is 5-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 2.75 and a WHIP of 0.864.
    His team's record is 5-3 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-4. (-0.4 units)

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    LA DODGERS (95 - 72) at MILWAUKEE (99 - 67) - 4:05 PM
    WALKER BUEHLER (R) vs. WADE MILEY (L)
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MILWAUKEE is 3-4 (+0.4 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
    4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.7 Units)

    WALKER BUEHLER vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
    BUEHLER is 0-1 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 1.29 and a WHIP of 0.714.
    His team's record is 0-1 (-1.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

    WADE MILEY vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
    MILEY is 4-5 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.39 and a WHIP of 1.312.
    His team's record is 6-8 (-0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-8. (-2.8 units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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    MLB
    Dunkel

    Friday, October 12


    LA Dodgers @ Milwaukee

    Game 901-902
    October 12, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Dodgers
    (Kershaw) 17.810
    Milwaukee
    (Gonzalez) 20.021
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Milwaukee
    by 2
    8
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Dodgers
    -160
    7 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Milwaukee
    (+140); Over



    Saturday, October 13

    Houston @ Boston

    Game 903-904
    October 13, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Houston
    (Verlnder) 18.781
    Boston
    (Sale) 16.344
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Houston
    by 2 1/2
    10
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Boston
    -125
    10
    Dunkel Pick:
    Houston
    (+105); Over

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