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Thread: NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 6 (Thur. Oct. 11 - Mon. Oct. 15)

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    Default NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 6 (Thur. Oct. 11 - Mon. Oct. 15)



    NFL Trends and Indexes

    Thursday. October 11 - Monday. October 15

    Additional trends and information will be added as available.

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Patriots get home-field advantage plus hook in NFL Week 6 odds vs. unbeaten Chiefs
    Patrick Everson

    Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes are two key reasons why Kansas City is 5-0 SU and ATS this season. But the Chiefs opened as 3.5-point underdogs for a Week 6 showdown at New England.

    Week 6 of the NFL season features a prime-time Sunday night clash between two of the AFC’s best outfits. We check in on the opening lines and early action for that game and three others, with insights from Derek Wilkinson, sportsbook supervisor at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

    Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3.5)

    Kansas City is the only unbeaten team in the AFC and one of just two perfect squads through five weeks. The Chiefs (5-0 SU and ATS) expected to have a tough test against Jacksonville in Week 5, but got out to a 23-0 lead and coasted to a 30-14 win as a 3-point home favorite.

    New England had an off-kilter first three weeks, but followed with a pair of very New England-looking victories. The Patriots (3-2 SU and ATS) dropped Indianapolis 38-24 as a 10.5-point home chalk Thursday, the second straight week the squad put up 38 points.

    “Both teams look good right now, but New England looked like it was supposed to last week,” Wilkinson said. “We’re anticipating that line to go to -4 in a day or two.”

    Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)

    Cincinnati is surprisingly all alone atop the AFC North at 4-1 SU and ATS. The Bengals found themselves in a 17-0 hole six minutes into the third quarter against Miami, but rallied for a 27-17 Week 5 victory laying 6.5 points at home.

    After a less-than-inspiring first month, Pittsburgh finally found some firm footing in Week 5. The Steelers (2-2-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) outscored Atlanta 28-7 in the second half to claim a 41-17 home win as a 3.5-point fave.

    “We favored Cincinnati at home by less than a field goal, and I think that number could be lower by game time,” Wilkinson said. “The Bengals are playing well, but historically, the Steelers own them. I could see this line being closer to a pick by Sunday.”
    Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos (+7)

    Los Angeles is the best the NFC has to offer right now, joining Kansas City with a perfect record. The Rams (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) got a stiff road test at Seattle in Week 5, but came away with a 33-31 victory giving 7.5 points.

    Denver won its first two games, but has since dropped three in a row and is the only team in the league that has yet to cash this season. In Week 5, the Broncos (2-3 SU, 0-4-1 ATS) went off as 1-point road pups at the New York Jets and got rolled 34-16.

    “You never know what’s going to happen in an NFL game, but the Rams are a far better team,” Wilkinson said. “I think the public will be all over the Rams -7, but the sharps will stay away from the game altogether. I think this line is going to stay -7, even though we’ll have a ton of money on L.A.”

    Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (+3)

    Philadelphia isn’t looking much like the defending Super Bowl champion at this point, and now is working on a short week ahead of this Thursday night contest. The Eagles (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) were 3.5-point home faves against Minnesota in Week 5, but never led in a 23-21 setback.

    New York is now getting to the point where it’s desperate for wins, after letting one slip away on Sunday. The Giants (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) got a touchdown with 1:08 remaining in the fourth quarter to take a 31-30 lead at Carolina, but gave up a massive 63-yard final-second field goal in a 33-31 loss catching 7 points.

    “This line was difficult because I think Philly is more than a field goal better than the Giants,” Wilkinson said. “However, they’re divisional rivals playing in New York, so we stayed fairly low for now. I’m not sure where this line is going yet, but my guess would be that the public likes Philly.”
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-09-2018 at 02:16 AM.

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    Hot & Not Report

    Week of October 8th

    Well, that trend of teams going 'over' the total when coming off a TNF home game continued this week with the Rams 33-31 win in Seattle. That's a perfect 4-0 O/U so far in 2018 and this week we've already got the perfect candidate for a popular 'over' play there as the New England Patriots host the Kansas City Chiefs. If that's a trend you are looking to follow, it's probably best to get your play in sooner rather than later this week.

    Regarding last week's streaks, the Sun Belt East Division teams ended up finishing the week with a 1-0-2 against the spread (ATS) mark as Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State were off, while Troy and Georgia State played one another. That 1-0-2 ATS mark is the best possible outcome for the Sun Belt East last week, so even when they play one another they aren't a bad ATS bet...

    Over in the MAC East games, backing the 'over' once again proved to be the way to go as only the Ohio/Kent State divisional matchup was able to cash an 'under' ticket in any of the four games played involving teams from that division. You'd have to believe that a run like that should eventually dry up, but we might have to wait until the weather takes a turn before MAC East 'under' bets can be considered.

    This week it's back to the NFL as there are a few things I want to touch on there.

    Who's Hot

    Tight games involving the Cleveland Browns – All five Cleveland games have been decided by 4 points or less


    We may be nearly 40 years removed from the 1980 Cleveland Browns known as the “Kardiac Kids” in Cleveland, but the 2018 Cleveland Browns are definitely young and definitely know how to make games close the entire time. Cleveland is looking at a 4-1 ATS record vs the closing numbers this year, but that one ATS loss could be graded as a push or even win as their number was +3 or higher for the bulk of the week prior to playing Oakland.

    After all last season stories coming out about the “sharps” backing Cleveland each week and usually paying the oddsmaker, it's looking like those bettors were just a year early in their support for the Browns, as this team has been competitive every week and been paying off their backers basically every time. To have the first five games decided by no more than four points every time is quite remarkable, but may be even more remarkable is the fact that Cleveland's first SU win in nearly two years came when they won and covered as a small favorite with that four-point margin. All those years of bad luck appear to be reversing themselves every week for Cleveland in 2018.

    This week the Browns and their ATS run are going to be put to the test as they are in the pick'em/+1 range hosting the L.A Chargers. It's an early body clock game for L.A there and that does favor the Browns, but the oddsmakers look like they want to really test the support of Browns backers here. There will be no more Browns SU losses/ties and paying out spread tickets this week. At this number it's Browns win the game or not.

    It's too early in the week to really know which way I want to lean there, but if what we've seen from Cleveland already this year, chances are it will be a one-possession game regardless. Teasers anyone?

    Who's Not

    NFL Road Favorites – 0-4 ATS in Week 5, 2-9 ATS last three weeks


    Betting road favorites in the NFL can tend to be a tricky proposition in general, but these past few weeks it's just been a bankroll burner. On Sunday we saw four teams that close as road favorites (Denver, Baltimore, Tennessee, L.A Rams) go 0-4 ATS, and you can even throw Green Bay into that mix as well as they were -1.5 on the road all the way until Sunday when the line flipped and Detroit was finally laying a point at home. Only one of those teams – Rams – actually won the game outright, as these home underdogs are ones you definitely want to look at right now.

    Not only was Week 5 bad ATS-wise for road favorites, but Week 4's 2-2 ATS record for road chalk only got two wins because of Houston's OT gift, and Kansas City's 4th quarter comeback to beat Denver and win by the hook (vs closing line). With a 0-3 ATS record in Week 3 for road chalk, the last spot any NFL team wants to be in right now is expected to win on the road.

    So what does that mean for Week 6?

    Well, the week starts off with the Philadelphia Eagles laying a FG on TNF against the Giants. TNF has already been a rough spot for road teams this year (0-4-1 ATS), and now you've got the poor road favorite role attached to the Eagles as well. Not the greatest spot for the defending champs to say the least.

    After that, there are currently six other road favorites on the Week 6 betting board. We've got Seattle (-3) in Oakland, Chicago (-3) in Miami, L.A Chargers (-1) in Cleveland, L.A Rams (-7) in Denver, Jacksonville (-3) in Dallas, and Baltimore (-3) in Tennessee. All six of those squads probably won't fail to cover their respective spreads, but I know I wouldn't be that confident in my card if a good majority end up on my betting board.

    That's not to say you should avoid these teams or look to blindly bet the other way, just tread carefully with these teams in that road chalk role, because it's really only added money into the oddsmakers pockets this year.

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    NFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 6


    Thursday. October 11

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    PHILADELPHIA (2 - 3) at NY GIANTS (1 - 4) - 10/11/2018, 8:20 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NY GIANTS is 3-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
    PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Sunday. October 14

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    ARIZONA (1 - 4) at MINNESOTA (2 - 2 - 1) - 10/14/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ARIZONA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
    MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    LA CHARGERS (3 - 2) at CLEVELAND (2 - 2 - 1) - 10/14/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA CHARGERS is 96-70 ATS (+19.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    CLEVELAND is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CLEVELAND is 2-0 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
    CLEVELAND is 1-1 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CHICAGO (3 - 1) at MIAMI (3 - 2) - 10/14/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
    CHICAGO is 49-77 ATS (-35.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    CAROLINA (3 - 1) at WASHINGTON (2 - 1) - 10/14/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CAROLINA is 114-85 ATS (+20.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
    CAROLINA is 158-124 ATS (+21.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 62-96 ATS (-43.6 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 88-117 ATS (-40.7 Units) in home games since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 88-117 ATS (-40.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 88-117 ATS (-40.7 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
    CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 4) at NY JETS (2 - 3) - 10/14/2018, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
    INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    PITTSBURGH (2 - 2 - 1) at CINCINNATI (4 - 1) - 10/14/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PITTSBURGH is 62-36 ATS (+22.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
    PITTSBURGH is 69-43 ATS (+21.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PITTSBURGH is 3-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
    PITTSBURGH is 4-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    TAMPA BAY (2 - 2) at ATLANTA (1 - 4) - 10/14/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TAMPA BAY is 37-58 ATS (-26.8 Units) in October games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ATLANTA is 2-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
    ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    SEATTLE (2 - 3) vs. OAKLAND (1 - 4) - 10/14/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    SEATTLE is 43-67 ATS (-30.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
    SEATTLE is 36-61 ATS (-31.1 Units) in October games since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 51-82 ATS (-39.2 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 38-78 ATS (-47.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    BUFFALO (2 - 3) at HOUSTON (2 - 3) - 10/14/2018, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    LA RAMS (5 - 0) at DENVER (2 - 3) - 10/14/2018, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA RAMS is 187-233 ATS (-69.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 187-233 ATS (-69.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 145-184 ATS (-57.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 65-97 ATS (-41.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
    DENVER is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    DENVER is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    DENVER is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    JACKSONVILLE (3 - 2) at DALLAS (2 - 3) - 10/14/2018, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    JACKSONVILLE is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    BALTIMORE (3 - 2) at TENNESSEE (3 - 2) - 10/14/2018, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    BALTIMORE is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
    TENNESSEE is 114-148 ATS (-48.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TENNESSEE is 0-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
    TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    KANSAS CITY (5 - 0) at NEW ENGLAND (3 - 2) - 10/14/2018, 8:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ENGLAND is 31-12 ATS (+17.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 31-12 ATS (+17.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 30-12 ATS (+16.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
    NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
    KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
    KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Monday. October 15

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    SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 4) at GREEN BAY (2 - 2 - 1) - 10/15/2018, 8:15 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
    GREEN BAY is 109-79 ATS (+22.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 39-22 ATS (+14.8 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 189-135 ATS (+40.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 31-10 ATS (+20.0 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-09-2018 at 02:18 AM.

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    NFL

    Week 6


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    Trend Report
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    Thursday. October 11

    Philadelphia Eagles
    Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Philadelphia is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
    Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Philadelphia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
    Philadelphia is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games when playing NY Giants
    Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing NY Giants
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
    Philadelphia is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
    Philadelphia is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
    New York Giants
    NY Giants is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Giants's last 12 games
    NY Giants is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home
    NY Giants is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games at home
    NY Giants is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games when playing Philadelphia
    NY Giants is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Philadelphia
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
    NY Giants is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
    NY Giants is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia



    Sunday. October 14

    Arizona Cardinals
    Arizona is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
    Arizona is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 14 of Arizona's last 20 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 9 games on the road
    Arizona is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
    Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
    Arizona is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
    Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 9 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
    Minnesota Vikings
    Minnesota is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games
    Minnesota is 14-4-1 SU in its last 19 games
    Minnesota is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games
    Minnesota is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games at home
    Minnesota is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games at home
    Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Arizona
    Minnesota is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Arizona
    Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing at home against Arizona


    Buffalo Bills
    Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games
    Buffalo is 8-13-3 ATS in its last 24 games on the road
    Buffalo is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing Houston
    Houston Texans
    Houston is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games
    Houston is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games
    Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games when playing Buffalo


    Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    Tampa Bay is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    Tampa Bay is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
    Tampa Bay is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
    Tampa Bay is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games on the road
    Tampa Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
    Tampa Bay is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games when playing Atlanta
    Tampa Bay is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    Tampa Bay is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    Atlanta Falcons
    Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
    Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 12 games
    The total has gone OVER in 16 of Atlanta's last 22 games at home
    Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
    Atlanta is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games when playing Tampa Bay
    Atlanta is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
    Atlanta is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay


    Carolina Panthers
    Carolina is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games
    Carolina is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
    Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games on the road
    Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
    Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing Washington
    Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington
    Carolina is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
    Washington Redskins
    Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
    Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games at home
    Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
    Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Carolina
    Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Carolina
    Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Carolina
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina


    Indianapolis Colts
    Indianapolis is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 13 games
    Indianapolis is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games on the road
    Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing NY Jets
    Indianapolis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Jets
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 8 games when playing NY Jets
    Indianapolis is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
    Indianapolis is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
    New York Jets
    NY Jets is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    NY Jets is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
    NY Jets is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games at home
    NY Jets is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
    NY Jets is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Jets's last 8 games when playing Indianapolis
    NY Jets is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
    NY Jets is 7-14-1 ATS in its last 22 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
    NY Jets is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis


    Pittsburgh Steelers
    Pittsburgh is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games
    Pittsburgh is 12-4-1 SU in its last 17 games
    Pittsburgh is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games
    Pittsburgh is 7-0-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 18 of Pittsburgh's last 24 games on the road
    Pittsburgh is 17-6-1 ATS in its last 24 games when playing Cincinnati
    Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
    Pittsburgh is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
    Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
    Cincinnati Bengals
    Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games
    Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Cincinnati is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
    Cincinnati is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
    Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
    Cincinnati is 3-13-2 ATS in its last 18 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
    Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh


    Los Angeles Chargers
    LA Chargers is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of LA Chargers's last 16 games
    LA Chargers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    LA Chargers is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 8 games on the road
    LA Chargers is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
    LA Chargers is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cleveland
    LA Chargers is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
    Cleveland Browns
    Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Cleveland is 2-19-1 SU in its last 22 games
    Cleveland is 7-17-1 ATS in its last 25 games at home
    Cleveland is 3-16-1 SU in its last 20 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Cleveland's last 16 games at home
    Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
    Cleveland is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing LA Chargers
    Cleveland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Chargers


    Chicago Bears
    Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    Chicago is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games
    Chicago is 3-15 SU in its last 18 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games when playing Miami
    Miami Dolphins
    Miami is 5-9-2 ATS in its last 16 games
    Miami is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games
    Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games when playing Chicago


    Seattle Seahawks
    Seattle is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    Seattle is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Seattle is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games on the road
    Seattle is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Oakland
    The total has gone OVER in 13 of Seattle's last 18 games when playing Oakland
    Seattle is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
    Seattle is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
    Oakland Raiders
    Oakland is 5-12-2 ATS in its last 19 games
    Oakland is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Oakland's last 12 games
    Oakland is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Oakland is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games at home
    Oakland is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Seattle
    The total has gone OVER in 13 of Oakland's last 18 games when playing Seattle
    Oakland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
    Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle


    Los Angeles Rams
    LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Rams's last 11 games
    LA Rams is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
    LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games on the road
    LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
    Denver Broncos
    Denver is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Denver is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 9 games
    Denver is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
    Denver is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games at home
    Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams


    Baltimore Ravens
    Baltimore is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
    Baltimore is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Baltimore is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games on the road
    Baltimore is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Tennessee
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Baltimore's last 11 games when playing Tennessee
    Baltimore is 16-7-1 ATS in its last 24 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
    Baltimore is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
    Tennessee Titans
    Tennessee is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
    Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Tennessee is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 9 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tennessee's last 11 games when playing Baltimore
    Tennessee is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Baltimore


    Jacksonville Jaguars
    Jacksonville is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    Jacksonville is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
    Jacksonville is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
    Jacksonville is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing Dallas
    Dallas Cowboys
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Dallas's last 9 games
    Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Dallas is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Jacksonville


    Kansas City Chiefs
    Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
    Kansas City is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England
    Kansas City is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing New England
    Kansas City is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New England
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kansas City's last 8 games when playing on the road against New England
    New England Patriots
    New England is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games
    New England is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games
    New England is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games at home
    New England is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
    New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
    New England is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Kansas City
    New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Kansas City
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 8 games when playing at home against Kansas City



    Monday. October 15

    San Francisco 49ers
    San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 8 games
    San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    San Francisco is 4-17 SU in its last 21 games on the road
    San Francisco is 4-10-3 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Green Bay
    San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
    San Francisco is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games when playing Green Bay
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games when playing Green Bay
    San Francisco is 1-3-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
    San Francisco is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 9 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
    Green Bay Packers
    Green Bay is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
    Green Bay is 2-5-1 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games
    Green Bay is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
    Green Bay is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games when playing San Francisco
    Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 8 games when playing San Francisco
    Green Bay is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against San Francisco
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 9 games when playing at home against San Francisco


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-09-2018 at 02:18 AM.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
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    Credits
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    Default

    NFL
    Dunkel

    Week 6


    Thursday, October 11

    Philadelphia @ NY Giants

    Game 103-104
    October 11, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Philadelphia
    133.894
    NY Giants
    126.672
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 7
    51
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 3
    43 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Philadelphia
    (-3); Over



    Sunday, October 14

    Arizona @ Minnesota

    Game 251-252
    October 14, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Arizona
    124.069
    Minnesota
    135.993
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Minnesota
    by 12
    39
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Minnesota
    by 10
    43
    Dunkel Pick:
    Minnesota
    (-10); Under

    LA Chargers @ Cleveland


    Game 253-254
    October 14, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Chargers
    133.593
    Cleveland
    129.481
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Chargers
    by 4
    43
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Chargers
    by 1
    44 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Chargers
    (-1); Under

    Chicago @ Miami


    Game 255-256
    October 14, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Chicago
    132.664
    Miami
    131.336
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Chicago
    by 1 1/2
    44
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Chicago
    by 3
    41 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Miami
    (+3); Over

    Carolina @ Washington


    Game 957-958
    October 14, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Carolina
    134.540
    Washington
    127.721
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Carolina
    by 7
    48
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Washington
    by 1 1/2
    45
    Dunkel Pick:
    Carolina
    (+1 1/2); Over

    Indianapolis @ NY Jets


    Game 959-960
    October 14, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Indianapolis
    126.238
    NY Jets
    130.866
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    NY Jets
    by 4 1/2
    55
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    NY Jets
    by 2 1/2
    45
    Dunkel Pick:
    NY Jets
    (-2 1/2); Over

    Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati


    Game 261-262
    October 14, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Pittsburgh
    133.856
    Cincinnati
    138.965
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Cincinnati
    by 5
    55
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Cincinnati
    by 2
    53
    Dunkel Pick:
    Cincinnati
    (-2); Over

    Tampa Bay @ Atlanta


    Game 283-284
    October 14, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Tampa Bay
    127.657
    Atlanta
    127.821
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Tampa Bay
    Even
    61
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Atlanta
    by 3 1/2
    57
    Dunkel Pick:
    Tampa Bay
    (+3 1/2); Over

    Seattle @ Oakland


    Game 265-266
    October 14, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Seattle
    127.018
    Oakland
    128.640
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Oakland
    by 1 1/2
    49
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Seattle
    by 3
    47 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Oakland
    (+3); Over

    Buffalo @ Houston


    Game 267-268
    October 14, 2018 @ 2:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Buffalo
    121.487
    Houston
    132.545
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Houston
    by 11
    29
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Houston
    No Line
    N/A
    Dunkel Pick:
    Houston
    N/A

    LA Rams @ Denver

    Game 269-270
    October 14, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Rams
    138.492
    Denver
    123.216
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Rams
    by 15
    47
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Rams
    by 7
    52 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Rams
    (-7); Under

    Jacksonville @ Dallas


    Game 271-272
    October 14, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Jacksonville
    128.928
    Dallas
    132.852
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Dallas
    by 4
    40
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Jacksonville
    by 3
    41
    Dunkel Pick:
    Dallas
    (+3); Under

    Baltimore @ Tennessee


    Game 273-274
    October 14, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Baltimore
    135.476
    Tennessee
    130.692
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Baltimore
    by 5
    33
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Baltimore
    by 2 1/2
    41 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Baltimore
    (-2 1/2); Under

    Kansas City @ New England


    Game 275-276
    October 14, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Kansas City
    139.351
    New England
    137.347
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Kansas City
    by 2
    51
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New England
    by 3 1/2
    59 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Kansas City
    (+3 1/2); Under



    Monday, October 15

    San Francisco @ Green Bay

    Game 277-278
    October 15, 2018 @ 8:15 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    San Francisco
    126.643
    Green Bay
    129.266
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Green Bay
    by 2 1/2
    44
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Green Bay
    by 9 1/2
    46 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    San Francisco
    (+9 1/2); Under
    Last edited by Udog; 10-10-2018 at 10:04 AM.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    73,212
    Credits
    182,483

    Default

    NFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 6


    Thursday
    Eagles (2-3) @ Giants (1-4)— Both teams are struggling but Redskins lead NFC East at 2-2, so division is still up for grabs. Eagles lost last two games by total of five points; all six of their games were decided by 6 or fewer points. Iggles are 0-2 on road, giving up 27-26 points; under Pederson, Philly is 2-6 as road favorites. Last two games, Giants ran ball 31 times, threw 78 passes- their OL doesn’t open up holes for rookie RB Barkley. Big Blue allowed 33 points in each of last two games, losing LW on 63-yard FG at gun. Philly won seven of last eight series games; last five were all decided by 5 or fewer points; Iggles won four of last five visits here- last three were all decided by five points. Since 2013, Giants are 8-10 as home underdogs, 0-2 this year.

    Sunday
    Cardinals (1-4) @ Vikings (2-2-1)— Arizona got first win LW, but scored only one TD on a drive longer than 26 yards- they were +5 in turnovers at SF, after being -4 in first four games. Redbirds covered last three games, with last two losses by 2-3 points, after losing 24-6/34-0 in first two games. Arizona is 14-54 (25.9%) on 3rd down for season. Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 19-6 as home favorites, 1-1 this year- they lost last home game as a 17-point favorite. Vikings’ OL is struggling; they ran ball for 14-54-77 yards in last three games. Home side won last six series games; Cardinals lost their last eight trips to Minnesota- their last win here was in ’77. Vikings won four of last five series games overall.

    Chargers (3-2) @ Browns (2-2-1)— All five Cleveland games were decided by four or fewer points; three of them went to OT. Browns have had 74 possessions in five games, Chargers have had 50 in theirs. Cleveland is 2-0-1 at home, 3-0 vs spread, after being 3-12 vs spread at home the last two years. Chargers are scoring 27.4 ppg; they won 31-20 (-7.5) at Buffalo in their only games outside LA this year- they lost to Rams in Coliseum. Since moving to LA, Bolts are 5-3-2 vs spread on road- over is 4-1 in their games this season. Chargers are 7-3 in series, splitting last two years; they beat Browns 19-10 at home LY after losing 20-17 here in ’16. AFC North teams are 9-3 vs spread outside their division; AFC West teams are 6-5-1, 4-1-1 as favorites.

    Bears (3-1) @ Dolphins (3-2)— Chicago split its first two road games, which were decided by total of 3 points; since 2014, Bears are 0-2 as road favorites. Chicago allowed total of 41 points in its last three games; they’re +5 in turnovers the last two games. Miami lost its last two games, giving up 38-27 points; their OFFENSE allowed two 4th quarter TD’s in collapse at Cincy LW. Dolphins are 2-0 at home, winning by 7-8 points; under Gase, Fish are 6-2-1 as home dogs. Game was Bears’ OC in 2015, before coming to Miami. Chicago lost its last four post-bye games, outscored 143-51. Home side lost six of last seven series games, with Miami winning three of last four. Chicago won three of last four visits here, with last visit in ’10.

    Panthers (3-1) @ Redskins (2-2)— Washington defense got riddled by New Orleans Monday nite, giving up 11.3 yds/pass attempt; Redskins scored 24-31 points in their two wins, 9-14 in two losses- under Gruden, they’re 13-15 vs spread at home. Panthers are 7-2 vs spread in last nine games with spread of 3 or fewer points. Carolina lost its only road game, in Atlanta; Panthers scored 31-33 points in winning their last two games with seven takeaways (+5)- their last three games went over total. Carolina won last five series games, last four all by 8+ points; they won 21-13/26-15 in last two visits here. NFC South teams are 5-6 vs spread outside division; NFC East teams are 5-11, 1-6 at home.

    Colts (1-4) @ Jets (2-3)— Jets scored 48-34 points in their two wins, 12-17-12 in their losses; they ran ball for 323-169 yards in the wins, average of 61 yds/game in losses- they’re 1-1 at home. Under Bowles, Jets are 16-9-1 vs spread at home. Colts lost last three games, giving up 37-38 points in last two; they split two road games, with both staying under total. Indy scored 20+ points in second half of last two games; they’re 4-6 vs spread in last 10 home games. Home side lost five of last seven series games, with Jets winning three of last four; last three were all decided by 13+ points. Indy won three of last five visits here. AFC East teams are 6-1 vs spread in non-divisional home games; AFC South teams are 2-5 in non-divisional road games.

    Steelers (2-2-1) @ Bengals (4-1)— Two weeks ago, Bengals had 28 points at halftime, then TE Eifert got hurt in 3rd quarter; since then, Cincy scored only two offensive TD’s on 14 drives- two of their three 4th quarter TD’s vs Miami Sunday were scored by the defense. Since ’14, Bengals are 12-13-1 as home favorites, 1-0 this year- they won their two home games by 11-10 points. Pitt scored 30+ points in three of last four games; they haven’t trailed at halftime yet this season (were tied twice). Steelers are underdog for first time this year; since ’13, they’re 9-6-1 vs spread as road dogs. Steelers won last six series games and 14 of last 17; they won last five visits here, last three by 2-4-3 points.

    Buccaneers (2-2) @ Falcons (1-4)— Atlanta allowed 43-37-41 points in its last three games, giving up 15 TD’s on 30 drives (foes are 23 of last 38 on 3rd down). Average total in their three home games is 69.3. Falcons scored 31-37-36 points at home; when their defenders return, they will start winning again. Under Quinn, Atlanta is 9-15 as home favorites. Tampa Bay is 3-4 vs spread in last seven post0bye games. Bucs gave up 30+ points in three of four games; under Koetter, they’re 8-6-1 as road underdogs. Atlanta is 13-6 in last 19 series games, winning last three by 15-14-3 points, but Bucs won two of last three visits here- home side lost five of last seven series games. Average total in Bucs’ last five visits here, 55.2.

    Seahawks (2-3) vs Raiders (1-4) (@ London)— Very long trip for both sides, coming from west coast to play 10am PT game across pond. Seattle ran ball for 171-190 yards in last two games, which were decided by total of five points; they’re 2-5-1 vs spread in last eight games with spread of 3 or less points. Oakland allowed 32 ppg in last three games; 3-5-2 in last 10 games with spread of less or less. Seahawks covered six of last seven pre-bye games; Raiders are 1-5-1 vs spread in their last seven. Seattle is one of four NFL teams not to score yet on its first drive of game (29 plays, 115 yards, five punts). NFC West teams are 5-4-1 vs spread outside the division; AFC West teams are 6-5-1.

    Bills (2-3) @ Texans (2-3)— Houston won its last two games in OT after an 0-3 start, trying nine FG’s, scoring four TD’s (4.18 pts/red zone drive); Texans are 2-5 in last seven games as home favorites. Houston gained 427+ TY in each of last four games, which were all decided by 5 or fewer points. Since ’08, Bills are 22-39-3 vs spread coming off a win; in last two games, Buffalo threw for 87-79 yards, scoring one TD on 20 drives. Under McDermott, Bills are 5-4 as road underdogs; their three losses this year are all by 11+ points. Buffalo was outscored 18-6 in second half of its last three games. Teams split eight meetings; Bills lost 21-9/23-17 in last two visits here- their last win in Houston was in ’06.

    Rams (5-0) @ Broncos (2-3)— Winter weather expected in Denver for this. Rams are 5-0, with road wins 33-13 in Oakland, 33-31 in Seattle. Under McVay, LA is 4-3 as road favorites- they’ve scored 33+ in all five games this year, with last three going over. In last two games, Rams ran 118 plays; only 15 of them came on third down- they averaged 9.5+ yds/pass attempt in last four games. Denver allowed 323 rushing yards in loss to Jets LW; Broncos lost last three games, by 13-4-18 points- they’re 5-3 in last eight games as home underdogs. Rams won last three series games, by 8-3-15 points- they split six visits here. Denver QB Keenum started nine games for Rams in ’16, going 4-5 before then-rookie Goff took over.

    Jaguars (3-2) @ Cowboys (2-3)— Dallas is 2-3 after OT loss in Houston; they scored 20-26 in the wins, 8-13-16 in losses- they’re 2-0 at home, 0-3 on road. In last three games, Cowboys have only three TD’s on 31 drives, with nine FGA’s (3.67 pts/red zone drives). Under Garrett, Dallas is 7-7-2 as home underdogs. Jaguars gained 503-502 yards in last two games, but turned ball over eight times (-6) and split pair; Jags are 3-0 scoring 20+ points, 0-2 scoring less- they’re 4-4 in last eight games as home underdogs. Teams split six series games; Jaguars split four visits here, last of which was in ’10. AFC South teams are 5-8 vs spread outside division, 2-5 as favorites; NFC East teams are 5-11 vs spread, 1-6 at home.

    Ravens (3-2) @ Titans (3-2)— Tennessee’s last four games (3-1) were all decided by 3 or fewer points; in their last three games, Titans scored only three TD’s on 30 drives- they’re 2-0 at home this year, nipping Texans/Eagles by FG each. Titans are 12-19-2 in last 33 games where spread was 3 or fewer points- only once in five games have Titans scored more than six points in first half. Baltimore is 5-9-1 in last 15 games as road favorites; they’re 1-2 on road this year, with underdogs covering all three games. Tennessee beat Ravens 23-20 here LY; they’re 5-3 in last eight series games. Baltimore lost 26-13/23-20 in last two visits here. Third straight road game for Ravens, notorious NFL soft spot over years.

    Chiefs (5-0) @ Patriots (3-2)— KC won/covered first five games with precocious QB Mahomes under center; three of those games were on road. Chiefs covered seven of last 10 games as road underdogs; they’ve scored 20 TD’s on 46 drives this year. Patriots scored 38-38 points in their last two games, with WR’s Edelman/Gordon back in lineup; they’re 3-0 at home, winning by 7-31-14 points. Since ’13, NE is 25-11-3 vs spread as home favorites. Chiefs (+8.5) riddled NE 42-27 in season opener LY, using edge in speed with their WR’s- it was KC’s first win in last seven visits to Foxboro- home side won five of last six series games. Over is 15-10-1 in Chiefs’ last 26 road games, 42-25 in Patriot home games since 2010.

    Monday
    49ers (1-4) @ Packers (2-2-1)— 49ers lost last three games, by 11-2-10 points; under Shanahan, they’re 6-3 as road underdogs, 1-1 this year. SF outgained Cardinals 447-220 LW, but turned ball over five times (-5) and lost 28-18 at home- their last four games went over total. Green Bay is 1-2-1 in its last four games; Crosby missed four FG’s/PAT last week in 31-23 loss. Packers are 2-0-1 at home, winning by 1-22 points; they’re 18-9-2 vs spread in last 29 games as a home favorites. Niners won four of last five series games, winning 30-22/23-20 in last two visits here- their last visit here was a 2013 playoff game. In their last three games, Packers outscored their opponents 36-10, but they’ve also trailed three games this year by 17+ points at halftime.
    Last edited by Udog; 10-11-2018 at 01:50 PM.

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    AJAYI TEARS ACL

    Philadelphia running back Jay Ajayi was diagnosed with a torn ACL late Monday afternoon and is out for the season. This is brutal news for the Eagles’ backfield as they’re already without Corey Clement (quad) and Darren Sproles (hamstring), though neither has been officially ruled out for Thursday’s game at the New York Giants.

    The injuries at running back likely mean that the Eagles will need to rely a bit more on Carson Wentz, both with his arm and his legs. Although he has thrown for over 300 yards in back-to-back games, it’s hard to back him through the air because of how terrible the Eagles’ offensive line has been. Wentz has been sacked 12 times in his three games played already this season and seemed to be under pressure nearly every time he dropped back against Minnesota on Sunday. Even though the Giants don’t have a great pass rush, we still expect Wentz to see pressure and to be forced out of the pocket quite a bit. We’re going to back the Over on his rushing total for Thursday night.


    FOURNETTE OUT AGAIN

    Reports on Monday stated that Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette is out again for Week 6 at Dallas. He also missed Sunday’s loss at Kansas City after re-injuring his hamstring in Week 4. With Fournette out, T.J. Yeldon ran the ball 10 times for 53 yards, with the rushing attempts lower than the Jaguars would have wanted as they played from behind all afternoon.

    This week, the Jags travel to Dallas on Sunday to face a Cowboys defense that is ranked 11th against the run, giving up 95.8 rushing yards per game. In Week 5, the Cowboys gave up 88 rushing yards but only 46 of those came from a running back in Alfred Blue. In fact, Blue rushed 20 times for those 46 yards for a terrible average of 2.3 yards per attempt. It could be tough sledding for Yeldon at Dallas on Sunday so we’re taking the Under on his rushing total.


    BREIDA DOUBTFUL

    In keeping with an unfortunate trend of injured running backs, it appears as if San Francisco’s Matt Breida won’t play in Week 6 with coach Kyle Shanahan calling him doubtful with an ankle sprain. Breida left yesterday’s game in the second quarter, leaving the 49ers’ backfield work to Alfred Morris and Kyle Juszczyk, with Morris getting the early-down runs and Juszczyk working the passing downs.

    San Francisco travels to Green Bay on Monday Night Football in Week 6 and you can guarantee that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are going to be looking to put a big number on the board after being somewhat humiliated in Detroit on Sunday. The Niners will try to establish Morris early in the game but don’t be surprised to see them get behind quickly and turn to the pass, which would then expand Juszczyk’s role. Juszczyk had a break-out game with six catches for 75 yards on Sunday and we’ll be looking for him to go Over his receptions total once again on Monday night in a game where the Niners are likely to be chasing points.


    COLLINS NEEDS MORE SNAPS

    Baltimore’s best running back is Alex Collins yet for some reason he only played on 31 percent of snaps in Sunday’s loss to Cleveland, while Buck Allen received 57 percent of the snaps. Coach John Harbaugh didn’t seem to regret it, simply telling reporters on Monday that “we need to spread the load” and that “a fresh running back in a good thing.”

    Ultimately, Harbaugh is going to reflect on Sunday and notice two things: First, he lost to the Browns, and second, Buck Allen is a plodder who is averaging 2.8 yards per carry. Collins ran for 60 yards on just 12 carries on Sunday for a respectable 4.9 yards per carry. He is the more talented back and we’re hoping a loss to the Browns will help Harbaugh realize that. We’re going to take the Over on his rushing total in Week 6 at Tennessee.


    WATSON IS BACK

    It appears as if Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson is back. After a slow start to the season in the Week 1 loss at New England, Watson has now posted four straight games with 300-plus passing yards, including 375, 375, and 385 in his last three. Watson has found his rhythm and it has helped that the Texans have a struggling running game. Lamar Miller (chest) dressed but didn’t play in Week 5; he should be able to go in Week 6. This shouldn’t make much of a difference, however, as Miller has only run for 59 total yards in his last two games. On Sunday, the Texans play host to a Bills defense that has allowed passing totals of 298 and 296 in its last two road games. We’re liking the Texans to keep airing it out in Week 6 and for Watson to go Over his passing yards total.

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    Tech Trends - Week 6
    Bruce Marshall

    Thursday, Oct. 11

    PHILADELPHIA at NY GIANTS (FOX/NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)

    NY actually covered both meetings LY, and Eagles no covers last four since Atlanta opener. Giants “under” 9-3 last 11 since late 2017.
    Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.


    Sunday, Oct. 14

    ARIZONA at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Big Red 2-5 last seven as road dog. Cards “under” 8 of last 10 since late 2017. Vikes “under” five straight in reg season at US Bank.
    Tech Edge: -“Under” and Vikings, based on “totals” and team trends.


    L.A. CHARGERS at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Last game Browns won before this season was Dec. 2016 at home vs. Bolts. Brownies 4-1 vs. line in 2018. Chargers “over” 4-1 in 2018.
    Tech Edge: Browns and “over," based on “totals” and team trends.


    CHICAGO at MIAMI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Bears 5-1 last six vs. line. If Dolphins a dog, however, note 6-2-1 spread mark last 9 in role at home.
    Tech Edge: Bears, based on team trends.


    CAROLINA at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    If Panthers a dog note 7-3 mark last ten in role. Skins 4-1 last five vs. spread at Fed Ex. After last Monday vs. Saints, Jay Gruden “over” 27-14 since late 2015 as well.
    Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.


    INDIANAPOLIS at N.Y. JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Colts 3-1 vs. line last four away. Jets 3-5-1 last nine vs. line since late 2017.
    Tech Edge: Colts, based on recent trends.


    PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Bengals have lost five in a row SU at Paul Brown vs. Steel, no covers last four of those in reg season as well . Steel now "over” 8-3-1 last 12 since late 2017, while Bengals “over” 5-1 last six.
    Tech Edge: Steelers and "over," based on series and “totals” trends.


    TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Bucs 4-2 vs. line last six meetings, and “over” five in a row since late 2017. Falcs “over” last 4 in 2018.
    Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.


    SEATTLE vs. OAKLAND at Wembley Stadium, London (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Hawks 4-9-2 vs. line last 15 away from CenturyLink Field. Hawks also “under” 8-3 last 11 away from home. Raiders “under" 10-2 last 12 since mid 2017. Oakland also 1-8-2 vs. points last ten away from home.
    Tech Edge: “Under” and Seahawks, based on “totals” and trends.


    BUFFALO at HOUSTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Bills “under” 9-4 last 13 away. O’Brien 5-1-1 as home chalk as recently as 2016 but 2-4 in role since.
    Tech Edge: “Under,” based on "totals" trends.


    L.A. RAMS at DENVER (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)

    Vance Joseph on 2-14-1 spread skid 2017. Broncos 1-7 vs. line last eight at home. Rams 7-2 vs. line last nine away from Coliseum, also "over" last three TY.
    Tech Edge: Rams and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


    JACKSONVILLE at DALLAS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)

    Home team covered first four Dallas games this season. But Cowboys were 2-5 last seven vs. spread as host in 2017. Dallas also on 12-2 “under” run since mid 2017.
    Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals" trends.


    BALTIMORE at TENNESSEE (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)

    Flacco was 5-2-1 vs. spread away in 2017, but 0-2 in role in 2018. Ravens “over” 15-10-1 since late 2016. Titans have covered five straight in Nashville.
    Tech Edge: Slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.


    KANSAS CITY at NEW ENGLAND (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)

    Andy Reid on 9-0 SU and spread run in reg season. Belichick however is 3-0 vs. line at home in 2018 and 11-3 vs. spread last 14 at home in reg season. Chiefs “over” 4-2 reg season since late 2017. Rematch of KC’s 42-27 surprise in opener LY.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


    Monday, Oct. 15

    SAN FRANCISCO at GREEN BAY (ESPN, 8:25 p.m. ET)

    SF 7-4 last 11 as road dog, but Pack 8-4-1 last 13 as Lambeau chalk. Niners “over” 7-1 since late 2017, Pack “over” 28-12 since 2016.
    Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

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    CLEMENT PRACTICING

    Eagles running back Corey Clement (quad) practiced on Tuesday and is expected to return on Thursday night after missing the last two games. His return is a huge boost to a backfield that just lost Jay Ajayi for the season and is still without Darren Sproles and Clement will likely share touches with Wendall Smallwood against the Giants.

    It’s tough to predict whether Clement or Smallwood will get more work on Thursday night. Looking back to Week 3 — where Clement and Smallwood handled the backfield while Ajayi was out — we see that Clement out-snapped (45 to 29) and out-touched (19 to 13) Smallwood, but Smallwood was more productive (91 total yards to 75). Clement had four red-zone carries, while Smallwood had three red-zone carries, a red-zone target, and scored a touchdown.

    For this week, we’re treating the Eagles’ backfield as a 50-50 split and, in a situation like this, we suggest backing the bet with greater value. When the full prop slate opens later in the week, we’ll be looking to take the Over for whoever has the lowest rushing yards total between Clement and Smallwood.


    PETERSON TO PLAY THROUGH

    Washington running back Adrian Peterson couldn’t finish Monday night’s game at New Orleans after he dislocated his shoulder late in the first half but, according to Peterson, it isn’t an injury that’s going to sideline him. “It’s not going to keep me out. I came back into the game. It was just a situation where it was sore. I just popped it back in, braced it up at halftime and got back in there,” Peterson told reporters.

    AP and the Redskins return home to face Carolina on Sunday and, assuming he plays, we’ll be fading him, mostly because of his risk of injuring his shoulder again — there’s a good chance that he dislocates it again after taking a hard hit early in the game. There’s also the fact that he’s going against a Panthers rush defense that just limited Saquon Barkley to 48 rushing yards on 15 attempts and is getting veteran linebacker Thomas Davis back from suspension. A 33-year-old running back at less than 100 percent against a tough run defense just adds up: Take the Under 63.5 yards on AP’s rushing total.


    JAGS SIGN CHARLES

    Jacksonville signed Jamaal Charles to a one-year contract on Sunday. Yes, the same Charles who was a four-time Pro Bowler in the first half of this decade. He’ll back up T.J. Yeldon on Sunday and hopefully even steal a couple of carries, which would further strengthen yesterday’s lean of taking the Under on Yeldon’s rushing total.

    Speaking of yesterday’s Yeldon lean, we’re going to add to it by suggesting bettors also take the Over on Blake Bortles’ passing yards total. We played this one last week and it easily cashed as Bortles threw for 430 yards. The Jags just don’t like to run the ball without their lead back and Bortles is averaging 38.8 passing attempts per game, dating back to last season, with Fournette out of the lineup. On Sunday, Jacksonville plays a Dallas defense that is very good against the run (5th in rush defense DVOA) and bad against the pass (24th in pass defense DVOA). Last week, Deshaun Watson cut up the Cowboys for 375 passing yards while Dallas limited Alfred Blue to 46 rushing yards on 20 attempts. Look for a similar outcome this week and back Bortles to go Over 279.5 passing yards.


    NJOKU HEATING UP

    Browns fans have been waiting for second-year tight end David Njoku to start becoming an offensive force and it might finally be happening now that Baker Mayfield is under center. In his two starts, Mayfield has been looking for Njoku, targeting him seven times two weeks ago and 11 times last week and Njoku hasn’t disappointed, with games of 5-52 and 6-69. This week, the Browns host the Chargers, a team that has given up 10 receptions to opposing tight ends over the past two weeks (6 to George Kittle and 4 to Jared Cook). While those aren’t terrible defensive numbers against tight ends, we like the growing Mayfield-Njoku connection and we expect the Browns' big tight end to go Over 4.5 receptions on Sunday.


    GORDON’S TIME TO SHINE?

    Last week, we backed a winner with the Under 52.5 on Josh Gordon’s receiving total, with the analysis being that he wouldn’t have time to get up to speed with the Patriots’ offense as they were on a short week. Well, this week it's the opposite and it could be the week that Josh Gordon breaks out. With the Pats coming off a mini-bye and a shootout on tap against the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football, this looks like the week that Gordon could break out and really become a difference maker to the Pats offense. But here’s the best part: His receiving yards total is still set quite low at 53.5, making it the perfect time to jump on the Over.

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    Games to Watch - Week 6

    It was a record-setting night on Monday, with Drew Brees adding his name to the record books as his New Orleans Saints demolished the Washington Redskins. It was a great ending to what was a fabulous few days of football in the NFL, but now it’s time to look ahead to what Week 6 has to offer. There are, as always, some big games on the schedule, with a few teams already in the position of needing a win to keep their season alive.

    We also have a great looking game for next Monday night that features the GOAT going against the most exciting young player in the game today. Let’s look ahead to the game to watch in Week 6 of the NFL season with all the odds, props and futures.

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+150) at Atlanta Falcons (-170)

    At the start of this piece, we spoke about teams needing a win to stay in the playoff hunt, and it’s fair to suggest that these two teams are in that mix. The Buccaneers saw their season get off to a fantastic start, with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick looking like a superstar for a couple of weeks. He, and the entire team, have cooled off of late, though, so expect to see Jameis Winston back under center for the 2-2 Bucs.

    The Falcons have had some major injury issues to deal with, but that is only part of the reason why they are 1-4 to start the year. Given how things are going at the top of the NFC South, both od these teams really need a win here.

    Pittsburgh Steelers (+115) at Cincinnati Bengals (-135)

    Who can remember the last time that the Steelers took on the Cincinnati Bengals as the underdog? It’s been a while, but that is exactly what is happening here. The Bengals have looked very good through the opening 5 weeks of the season, going 4-1 to sit at the top of the AFC North. The Steelers have not looked particularly good, especially on the defensive side of the football, but they finally put it all together last Sunday, thumping the Atlanta Falcons 41-17.

    If the Steelers can go on the road and get the win here, things will tighten up considerably in the division race.

    Los Angeles Rams (-290) at Denver Broncos (+235)

    Given the amount of money that the Rams front office invested in talent over the offseason, it became clear that is was very much Super Bowl or bust this season. That investment is paying off, at least in the early going, with the Rams running out to a perfect 5-0 record. They survived their first real scare of the weekend last Sunday, but still found a way to win on the road against the Seattle Seahawks. They are back on the road this week with a tricky trip to Denver.

    Sure, the Broncos are just 2-3 on the season, but they are always tough to take out at home.

    Kansas City Chiefs (+165) at New England Patriots (-190)

    This is a Sunday night game worth staying up for, as this one very much looks like the game of the week. After a bit of a wobbly start, all the talk was that the Patriots NFL reign was coming to an end, but that idea has been put to bed after back to back big wins. This team is now healthy and back to full strength, so look out.

    The Chiefs are one of just two unbeaten teams in the league and they have looked outstanding in getting to that point. Patrick Mahomes is deservedly getting a lot of the credit, but this looks like a solid team from top to bottom.

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    NFL trends for Week 6:

    — Cleveland covered five of its last six games.

    — Kansas City covered its last nine games.

    — Vikings are 16-4 in last 20 games as home favorites.

    — Patriots covered 12 of their last 15 games.

    — Seahawks covered six of last seven pre-bye games.

    — Dallas is 10-5-1 vs spread in last 16 games vs AFC teams.

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    TNF - Eagles at Giants
    Tony Mejia

    Philadelphia (-3, 44) at N.Y. Giants, 8:20 pm ET, FOX/NFLN

    No team suffered a more painful loss than the Giants in Week 5, having battled back from a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit to grab a late lead at Carolina before Graham Gano stepped in with an improbable game-winning 63-yard field goal.

    The aftermath of the disappointing loss also included WR Odell Beckham Jr. addressing a controversial interview he did with ESPN in which he essentially threw all of his teammates under the bus as hip-hop artist and fellow New Orleans native Lil’ Wayne nodded sympathetically. He questioned the passion and heart of teammates and didn’t take up for quarterback Eli Manning, responding “I don’t know” when asked if the 37-year-old future Hall of Famer was to blame for the team’s offensive struggles.

    He could’ve accurately responded that the entire offensive line was to blame and been similarly criticized but the fact is even doing an interview of that nature barely a month into the regular season is a bad look. Unapologetic, Beckham took credit for inspiring teammates to what was the team’s best performance in weeks.

    His tone deaf stance has served one purpose for New York however, deflecting attention from the Giants essentially facing what feels like a must-win at home as the defending Super Bowl champs come in for the first of two regular-season meetings. Instead of answering questions about pressure and a short week, the Giants have had a noisy distraction to suppress their real issues. They’ve also been handed a ready-made scapegoat should this Thursday night contest not go their way.

    New York has been a major disappointment in spite of a coaching change that brought the highly respected Pat Shurmur into run the show. Although No. 2 overall pick Saquon Barkley has shown flashes of brilliance, he’s got just 100-yard rushing game under his belt. The league’s longest run of games between scoring 30 points finally ended, but it took a trick play and some fourth-quarter magic to get the job done.

    The Eagles visit on the heels of a disappointing home loss to Minnesota in which they fell behind 20-3 and saw their comeback fall short. Running back Jay Ajayi was injured in the loss, but the revelation he tore his ACL was a nasty surprise to pile on to a disappointing start on the heels of the team’s first Super Bowl victory.

    Nick Foles was at the controls for Philly’s Thursday night victory over Atlanta to open the season, but that game put a suspect offense on display from Day 1. Carson Wentz’s Week 3 return following a disappointing loss at Tampa Bay produced a victory over Indianapolis when a Hail Mary went unanswered. Still, the Eagles have remained flat despite regaining his services. WR Alshon Jeffery just rejoined the fold after his own injury woes and the newly signed Jordan Matthews is building chemistry with Wentz, so there’s no question the Eagles can be optimistic as they attempt to get back to .500.

    Philadelphia has scored 23 or fewer points in every game this season and has been involved exclusively in one-possession games, so finding the Giants on the schedule might be a welcome sight. The Eagles have dominated New York over the past few seasons, winning seven of the last eight meetings. If you ago all the way back to 2008, Philly has prevailed in 15 of 19, although the last five have all been one-possession games as well.

    Barkley, a native of the Bronx, has scored in each of his first two home dates and will be looking for his first win at Met Life Stadium in addition to his first win against a divisional foe after losing in Dallas a few weeks back. Beckham, whose miscue on a punt return proved costly and balanced out his TD pass and work at receiver against Carolina, has caught 50 passes for over 700 yards and six touchdowns against the Giants. He’s had success, but his team hasn’t.

    That sounds familiar. New York will look to reverse that trend as it seeks its first home win since the 2017 regular-season finale against Washington last New Year’s Eve. The Giants lost their first four home games last season and is now 2-8 over their last 10 at Met Life Stadium, covering just three times.

    Philadelphia will be looking to avoid what would be its third straight loss, something it hasn’t experienced since dropping five in a row from Nov 20-Dec. 18 in 2016.

    Philadelphia Eagles
    Season win total: 10.5 (Over +130, Under -150)
    Odds to win NFC East: 10/11 to 10/11
    Odds to win NFC: 10/1 to 13/1
    Odds to win Super Bowl: 20/1 to 25/1

    New York Giants
    Season win total: 7 (Over -140, Under +120)
    Odds to win NFC East: 15/1 to 12/1
    Odds to win NFC: 50/1 to 50/1
    Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1 to 100/1

    LINE MOVEMENT

    Given how poorly the entire division fared last week and how wide open things are through the first five games, it's most interesting that the Eagles were such a heavy favorite to win the NFC East again. The Eagles opened the season as a 5-to-7 favorite to repeat as divisional champs after last year's 13-3 finish saw them clear their closest pursuers by a full four games. New York finished last in '17 but opened as an appealing 8-to-1 to win the NFC East last April and were down to 5-to-1 to open Week 1. The Eagles remain (10/11) roughly even money to finish atop the division despite trailing Washington by a half-game.

    Only New Orleans (9/2), Minnesota (7/1) and Chicago (12/1) have better odds than these teams to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl than Philly. Only Arizona and San Francisco (1,000/1) have worse odds than the Giants.

    As far as this matchup is concerned, the Eagles were installed as a 2.5-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced last week but have been laying a field goal all week across the board with very little movement. The total opened at 45 but dipped steadily and is most widely available at 44 with a few 43.5s out there.

    Philadelphia is at -150 on the money line at most spots with the wager of a buck on New York to win straight up netting a return of +125 to +135 depending on the shop. The Eagles' team total is set at 23.5 while the Giants are available at 20.5 at most shops.

    INJURY CONCERNS

    Lane Johnson, Philly's standout right tackle, has practiced and will play, alleviating this game's biggest question mark.

    Ajayi’s injury means that the Eagles lose their primary back, taking away the battering ram concept that served them so well last season since they already had LeGarrette Blount when they added him from Miami. Blount is in Detroit now and Darren Sproles is still dealing with a hamstring issue, so look for the trend of using the short passing game as an extension of the run to continue here with Corey Clement and Wendell Smallwood doing the bulk of the work.

    Philadelphia also has issues on defense, having ruled out DT Haloti Ngata (calf) and safety Corey Graham (hamstring), whose absence could result in a big day for the passing game if Manning is accurate and gets time to throw. Top Giants pass-rusher Olivier Vernon will make his 2018 debut for New York, so its defense has a chance to bounce back after surrendering 33 points each of the last two weeks and recording just six sacks all season while doubling as one of the NFL’s worst teams in stopping the run.

    Giants backup tight end Rhett Ellison is questionable with a foot injury, which is a big deal since starter Evan Engram (knee) has been ruled out. WR Russell Shepard (neck) won’t play either.

    RECENT MEETINGS (Philadelphia 9-3 SU, 6-5-1 ATS last 12; OVER 8-4)

    12/17/17 Philadelphia 34-29 at N.Y. Giants (NYG +7.5, 40.5)
    9/24/17 Philadelphia 27-24 vs. N.Y. Giants (NYG +5, 43)
    12/22/16 Philadelphia 24-19 vs. N.Y. Giants (PHI -1.5, 42.5)
    11/6/16 N.Y. Giants 28-23 vs. Philadelphia (NYG -3, 42.5)
    1/3/16 Philadelphia 35-30 at N.Y. Giants (PHI -5, 51)
    10/19/15 Philadelphia 27-7 vs. N.Y. Giants (PHI -5, 49.5)
    12/28/14 Philadelphia 34-26 at N.Y. Giants (PK'em, 52)
    10/12/14 Philadelphia 27-0 vs. N.Y. Giants (PHI -1.5, 51)
    10/27/13 N.Y. Giants 15-7 at Philadelphia (NYG +5.5, 49)
    10/6/13 Philadelphia 36-21 at N.Y. Giants (PHI +1.5, 53.5)
    12/30/12 N.Y. Giants 42-7 vs. Philadelphia (NYG -6.5, 44.5)
    9/30/12 Philadelphia 19-17 vs. N.Y. Giants (PHI -1.5, 46.5)

    PROPS

    Of the props available below at Westgate, I'd ride the first score being a field goa for the value and like the under on Barkley rush yardage since the Giants move him around and have only given him over 15 carries twice thus far and he hasn't topped the 50 yards rushing in either of the last two weeks.

    First score: (Touchdown -150, FG/Safety +130)
    Carson Wentz passing yards (292.5): (Over -110, Under -110)
    Carson Wentz TD passes (2): Over -125, 2nd + OT +100)
    Zach Ertz receiving yards (67.5): (Over -110, Under -110)
    Eli Manning completions (24.5): (Over -110, Under -110)
    Eli Manning TD passes (1.5): (Over +110, Under -130)
    Saquon Barkley rush yards (60.5): (Over -110, Under -110)
    QB sacks (4.5): (Over -130, Under +110)

    NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

    Westgate Vegas opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 7 currently has the Eagles liisted as a 3-point home favorite against the Panthers in another big NFC game. The Giants will be back in the national spotlight, visiting the Falcons for a Monday night showdown that realistically looms as an elimination game since both teams have gotten off to such slow starts. Atlanta has been made a 3.5-point favorite.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-11-2018 at 12:23 PM.

  14. #14
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    NFL trends for Week 6:

    — Texans are 2-8 vs spread in their last ten games.

    — Pittsburgh is 3-8 vs spread in its last 11 games.

    — Tennessee is 11-3-1 vs spread coming off its last 15 losses.

    — New England is 17-6-3 in last 26 games as home favorites.

    — Buccaneers are 8-3 vs spread in last 11 post-bye games.

    — Kansas City covered its last nine games.

  15. #15
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    Top 6 picks in Week 6 of Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)

    1) Steelers +2.5 (1,092)

    2) Patriots -3.5 (1,004)

    3) Jaguars -3 (838)

    4) Bears -3 (799)

    5) Colts +2.5 (773)

    6) Falcons -3.5 (766)

    Season record: 13-15-2

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