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Thread: Sunday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/7

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    Default Sunday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/7

    Trends and Indexes

    Sunday, October 7

    Good Luck on day #280 of 2018!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

    Top 6 picks in Week 5 of Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)

    1) Ravens, -3 (1,014)

    2) Rams -7 (873)

    3) Titans -3.5 (811)

    4) Cardinals +4 (759)

    5) Redskins +6.5 (757)

    6) Broncos +1 (712)

    Season record: 12-10-2

    **********

    Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a college football Saturday

    13) Texas 48, Oklahoma 45— Sooners were -3 in turnovers, trailed 45-24 with 9:00 left in game, but rallied to tie game before Texas won it with 40-yard FG with 0:09 left. Total yardage was 532-501 Oklahoma, but the there turnovers sunk them.

    My question is this: Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray can also play next year for the Sooners, but he’s signed to play minor league ball for the Oakland A’s. As good a football player as Murray is, why would he give up his last year of college and a potential pro career? To me, Murray is a lot like Michael Vick as a QB— I’m an A’s fan, I hope he gives up football, but…….

    12) Miami 28, Florida State 27— Seminoles led 27-7 with 5:00 left in third quarter, but Miami scored two TD’s within 0:42 late in third quarter and pulled out a dramatic win, dropping FSU to 3-3 this season, 1-3 in ACC games.

    Neither team completed more than half their passes- they combined to convert only 10-34 on third down. Total yardage was 306-200, Miami; FSU is 8-9 in its last 17 games overall.

    11) Iowa State 48, Oklahoma State 42— Loudest people in the Golden Nugget sportsbook this afternoon were three Cyclone fans who were very….enthusiastic. Freshman QB Brock Purdy was 18-23 passing for 315 yards and four TD’s. Iowa State had 30 points at halftime.

    10) Florida 27, LSU 19— Wonder how many SEC head coaches went to HS in New Hampshire and went to college at D-III Ursinus. Dan Mullen is a good coach; his teams play sound football and Florida is lucky to have him. Mullen was Alex Smith’s QB coach at Utah, under Urban Meyer.

    9) Pitt 44, Syracuse 37 OT— Kicker for Syracuse made a 54-yard FG on a wet field at Heinz Field (NFL kickers have trouble kicking there) to give the Orange a 37-34 lead, but Pitt tied it on a 45-yard FG with 0:09 left, then won in OT. There was a 75-minute rain delay in this game.

    Pitt’s kicker made 54 and 55-yard FG’s, too. Second straight brutal loss for Syracuse, which got beat by Clemson’s 3rd-string QB 27-23 last week.

    8) Colorado 28, Arizona State 21— Buffaloes are 5-0 for first time since 1998. Colorado was 8-16 on third down, 2-2 on fourth down.

    Early in 4th quarter, with score 28-21, ASU had 4th-and-goal from the 3-yard line, but instead of kicking the easy FG and getting closer, Sun Devils went for it, failed and never came close to scoring again. Herm Edwards isn’t a great game manager.

    7) Upsets of the Day:
    — San Diego State (+14) 19, Boise State 13
    — Northwestern (+10) 29, Michigan State 19
    — New Mexico (+9) 50, UNLV 14
    — Iowa State (+9) 48, Oklahoma State 42
    — UAB (+8.5) 28, Louisiana Tech 7

    6) NC State 28, Boston College 23— Bad beat if you had the Wolfpack, -5.5. NC State led 28-3 with 2:00 left in third quarter- BC covered spread on a blocked punt with 3:33 left in the game.

    Yardage was 533-318, NC State; Wolfpack was 10-15 on third down, BC was 1-10.

    5) Baylor 37, Kansas State 34— Bears kicked FG with 0:08 left for the win; game was 20-14 after third quarter, but teams combined for 37 points in 4th quarter to put game over total.

    Charlie Brewer is Baylor’s QB; both his dad and grandfather played QB for Texas. Think he’ll be fired up when Baylor plays the Longhorns?

    4) Western Michigan 27, Eastern Michigan 24— Eagles lose by three points for third week in a row; they’re 14-2-1 vs spread in last 17 games as road underdogs. 16 of EMU’s last 31 games were decided by 5 or fewer points; Eagles are 7-9 SU in those games.

    3) San Diego State 19, Boise State 13— Boise is now 3-15 vs spread in last 18 games as a home favorites. Aztecs won despite gaining only 267 yards with only nine first downs.

    2) South Carolina 37, Missouri 35— Tigers had gone ahead on a 57-yard FG with 1:18 left, but Gamecocks got walk-off winner, a 33-yard FG with 0:02 left. Mizzou ran ball for 286 yards on a rainy day in South Carolina; there was a 76-minute lightning delay with only 2:42 left in the game- the 57-yard FG was kicked after the delay.

    Carolina backup QB, senior Michael Scarnecchia threw for 249 yards, three TD’s in his first college start. Gamecocks were down 23-14 at halftime.

    1) Texas A&M 20, Kentucky 14 OT— Wildcats missed a 43-yard FG short in OT— ball hit the crossbar, then Aggies scored TD to hand Kentucky its first loss of season- Kentucky had tied game with a defensive TD with 4:21 left.

    A&M outgained Kentucky 390-178, held Wildcats to only 8 first downs.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-07-2018 at 10:34 AM.

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    MLB
    Dunkel

    Sunday, October 7



    Milwaukee @ Colorado

    Game 955-956
    October 7, 2018 @ 4:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Milwaukee
    (Miley) 16.502
    Colorado
    (Marquez) 19.170
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Colorado
    by 2 1/2
    10
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Colorado
    -150
    9 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Colorado
    (-150); Over

    LA Dodgers @ Atlanta


    Game 957-958
    October 7, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Dodgers
    (Buehler) 18.331
    Atlanta
    (Newcomb) 14.316
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Dodgers
    by 4
    4
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Dodgers
    -170
    8
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Dodgers
    (-170); Under





    MLB
    Long Sheet

    Sunday, October 7


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MILWAUKEE (98 - 67) at COLORADO (92 - 74) - 4:35 PM
    WADE MILEY (L) vs. GERMAN MARQUEZ (R)
    Top Trends for this game.
    MILWAUKEE is 107-182 (-53.4 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Sunday since 1997.
    COLORADO is 92-74 (+18.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
    COLORADO is 62-47 (+20.3 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
    COLORADO is 54-41 (+18.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    COLORADO is 40-26 (+19.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
    MARQUEZ is 22-15 (+9.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
    MILWAUKEE is 98-67 (+25.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 30-26 (+16.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons.
    MILWAUKEE is 45-37 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 73-48 (+21.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 99-82 (+14.2 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
    MILWAUKEE is 46-34 (+14.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 24-14 (+12.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
    MILEY is 12-4 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MILWAUKEE is 7-2 (+5.8 Units) against COLORADO this season
    6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.8 Units)

    WADE MILEY vs. COLORADO since 1997
    MILEY is 7-2 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 4.03 and a WHIP of 1.319.
    His team's record is 8-5 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 8-4. (+4.2 units)

    GERMAN MARQUEZ vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
    MARQUEZ is 1-1 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 5.01 and a WHIP of 1.500.
    His team's record is 1-3 (-2.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-0. (+3.1 units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    LA DODGERS (94 - 71) at ATLANTA (90 - 74) - 8:05 PM
    WALKER BUEHLER (R) vs. SEAN NEWCOMB (L)
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA DODGERS are 94-71 (-19.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
    LA DODGERS are 38-45 (-24.4 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons.
    LA DODGERS are 66-53 (-17.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
    LA DODGERS are 13-16 (-14.5 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
    ATLANTA is 90-73 (+17.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
    ATLANTA is 48-33 (+13.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
    ATLANTA is 17-7 (+11.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Sunday this season.
    ATLANTA is 59-51 (+6.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
    ATLANTA is 69-46 (+25.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
    ATLANTA is 46-41 (+11.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    ATLANTA is 45-58 (-30.8 Units) against the money line in October games since 1997.
    ATLANTA is 30-43 (-26.0 Units) against the money line in playoff games since 1997.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    LA DODGERS is 7-2 (+3.9 Units) against ATLANTA this season
    5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.7 Units)

    WALKER BUEHLER vs. ATLANTA since 1997
    BUEHLER is 1-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 1.69 and a WHIP of 0.375.
    His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

    SEAN NEWCOMB vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
    NEWCOMB is 1-2 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.38 and a WHIP of 1.216.
    His team's record is 1-3 (-1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-1. (+1.8 units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    MLB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Sunday, October 7


    National League
    Brewers (98-67) @ Rockies (92-74)

    Miley is 3-0, 3.26 in his last six starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight. Milwaukee won his last seven starts. Team in his starts: 12-4, 8-2 road. Miley gave up three runs in five IP against the Rockies at home August 4.
    5-inning record: 9-5-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 3-16

    Marquez is 2-2, 3.28 in his last four starts; under is 10-3 in his last 13 starts. He is 0-1, 5.40 in two starts vs Milwaukee this season. Team in his starts: 18-14, 8-7 home
    5-inning record: 12-15-5 Allowed run in 1st inning: 19-32

    Colorado lost its first two games of this series, scoring two runs; they scored nine runs in three playoff games this week. Rockies won eight of their last nine home games. Brewers won their last ten games, five of which were on the rod. Milwaukee is 7-2 against the Rockies this season, 3-1 at Coors Field.

    Colorado lost Wild Card game LY, their first playoffs appearance since 2009. Brewers are in the playoffs for first time since 2011.

    Dodgers (93-71) @ Braves (90-73)
    Buehler is 2-0, 1.35 in his last four starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven starts. Team in his starts: 10-5, 2-3 road. Buehler beat Atlanta June 8, allowing one run in 5.1 IP.
    5-inning record: 9-4-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-15

    Newcomb is Team in his starts: 16-10, 6-6 home
    5-inning record: 15-7-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 4-26

    Braves lost six of their last seven games; they’re first team since 1921 Giants to get shut out in first two games of a playoff series. Braves are in playoffs for first time since 2013. Dodgers won six in row, 12 of last 5 games; they won their last five home games. LA is in playoffs for sixth year in row; they haven’t won a World Series since 1988.




    MLB
    Weather Report

    Sunday, October 7







    MLB

    Sunday, October 7


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Milwaukee Brewers
    Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    Milwaukee is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Colorado
    Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Colorado
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Milwaukee's last 14 games when playing Colorado
    Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Colorado
    Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Colorado
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 10 games when playing on the road against Colorado
    Colorado Rockies
    Colorado is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games
    Colorado is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
    Colorado is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    Colorado is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
    Colorado is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Colorado's last 8 games at home
    Colorado is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Milwaukee
    Colorado is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Colorado's last 14 games when playing Milwaukee
    Colorado is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
    Colorado is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Colorado's last 10 games when playing at home against Milwaukee


    Los Angeles Dodgers
    LA Dodgers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    LA Dodgers is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
    LA Dodgers is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games on the road
    LA Dodgers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
    LA Dodgers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
    LA Dodgers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    LA Dodgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    Atlanta Braves
    Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
    Atlanta is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games
    Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Atlanta is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games at home
    Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games at home
    Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Dodgers
    Atlanta is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing LA Dodgers
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
    Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
    Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-07-2018 at 10:35 AM.

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    POSTSEASON STARTER STAT OF THE DAY

    German Marquez, Colorado Rockies (14-10, 3.76 ERA, $571)

    In the abstract, Marquez's season wasn't bad, particularly for a guy who starts for the Rockies. But with Colorado's season on the line Sunday, some Rockies fans probably wish Marquez wasn't the guy for the job given how he has fared at Coors Field in 2018.

    Marquez's season splits were positively Coloradoan, as he boasted an 8-5 record with a 2.95 ERA on the road and a 6-6 mark with a 4.74 ERA at Coors Field. He surrendered 13 homers in 89 1/3 innings at home compared to 11 long balls in 106 2/3 road frames, and allowed opposing teams to post a .341 OBP in his 16 Coors Field outings.

    The Brewers should do some damage against Marquez on Sunday, and are worth a money-line look at +130.


    One Bad Inning

    Both Newcomb and Dodgers counterpart Walker Buehler have had solid seasons, but have had one inning that has plagued them in 2018. For Newcomb, the third inning has been his undoing; he has a 7.28 ERA in the frame, with five homers and a .284 BA against. Buehler has struggled in the fifth inning, with a 5.82 ERA and six of his 12 home runs against coming in that frame.

    If these trends hold, bettors should consider the first five innings as the highest-scoring period, a prop that pays at -120.


    Fancy a Homerless Game?

    The thought of a game at Coors Field producing zero home runs isn't as crazy as it used to be – but it's still a bit cuckoo. That said, both Sunday starters can make the case for keeping the ball in the park: Marquez has allowed just one home run in his previous five home starts, while Milwaukee's Wade Miley has gone seven consecutive outings without being taken deep.

    If you're feeling brave, you can roll with the zero-home-run prop at +260.
    Another Hit Shortage?

    Los Angeles might have dominated Atlanta in the first two games of their NLDS, but hits were hard to come by for both teams. The Dodgers and Braves combined to record just 19 hits at Dodger Stadium, going below the combined team hit total in both games. Buehler allowed just 95 hits in 137 1/3 innings in 2018, while Newcomb limited foes to 137 hits in 164 innings.

    With the combined hit total at 15.5 for Game 3, the safe choice is the under.

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