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Thread: Saturday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/6

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    Default Saturday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/6

    Trends and Indexes

    Saturday, October 6

    Good Luck on day #279 of 2018!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

    — Astros 7, Indians 2— Houston hit four solo homers.

    — Brewers 4, Rockies 0— Rockies are 1-12 with RISP in series.

    — Boston 5, New York 4— Red Sox led 5-0 early; Kimbrel got last four outs.

    — Dodgers 3, Braves 0— Atlanta hasn’t scored yet in series.

    — Georgia Tech 66, Louisville 31— Tech ran for 542 yards, threw two passes.

    — Utah State 45, BYU 20— Aggies win Ol’ Wagon Wheel for second year in a row.

    **********

    Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: College football trends on non-top 13 games

    13) Northern Illinois won its last six games with Ball State, winning last three visits to Muncie by 7-14-12 points; under Carey, Huskies are 13-6 as road favorites. Ball State is 2-6 in its last eight games as home underdogs.

    12) Road team won last four Old Dominion-Florida Atlantic games; Monarchs won 42-24/31-28 in last two visits to FAU. Monarchs are 4-9 in last 15 games as road underdogs- their last three games went over. FAU is 0-4 vs spread this year, but is 6-2 in last eight games as home faves.

    11) Michigan won its last three games with Maryland by combined score of 122-13; Terrapins are 15-11 in last 26 games as road underdogs. Under Harbaugh, Wolverines are 11-11 as home favorites, 14-14 as double digit favorites.

    10) Cincinnati won its last two games with Tulane, 17-16/38-14; both of those games were in New Orleans. Bearcats are 1-6 vs spread in last seven games as home favorites- their last three games stayed under. Under Fritz, Green Wave is 4-6 as road underdogs.

    9) Western Michigan won its last four games with Eastern Michigan, taking last two here, 45-31/51-7. Eagles are 12-2 in last 14 games as road underdogs- they’re 0-6 SU in last six OT games. Average total in Western’s I-A games: 69.3.

    8) Central Michigan won last two games with Buffalo, 51-14/20-14; Chippewas are 4-3 as home underdogs under Bonamego. Under Leopold, Buffalo is 11-9-1 coming off a loss; their last four games went over. Bulls are 2-3 in last five games as road favorites.

    7) Akron won four of last five games with Miami, winning last two here, 35-13/29-19. Zips are 8-14-2 vs spread in last 24 home games. Under Martin, Miami is 13-8 as road underdogs; they were outgained 562-349 in a 40-39 loss to Western Michigan last week.

    6) Road team won both Illinois-Rutgers Big 14 meetings; Illini won 24-7 in last visit here. Since ’14, Illinois is 2-0 as road favorite; under Smith, they’re 5-5 vs spread on road, but in their last two games, Illini allowed total of 1,217 yards. Rutgers gave up 149 points in its last three games.

    5) Boise State won its last two games with San Diego State, 38-29/31-14; Broncos are just 3-14 vs spread in last 17 games as home favorites- they’re 15-20 in last 35 games when laying 10+ points. Under Rocky Long, Aztecs are 9-8 vs spread as road underdogs.

    4) Under MacIntyre, Colorado is 13-5 as home favorites; they’re 6-3 last nine times they laid less than 10 points. Arizona State won five of its last six games with Colorado; they’re 3-1-1 in last five games as road dogs, but 7-17-1 in last 25 games as single digit underdogs.

    3) UCLA is 0-4 this season, with last three losses by 22+ points each; since ’14, Bruins are 0-5 as home underdogs. Under Petersen, Washington is 9-6 as road favorites; there I-A road wins this season are by 14-7 points. UCLA allowed 460 yds/game in its last three games.

    2) Arizona won its last two games with Cal Bears, 49-45/45-44; Wildcats are 0-2 at home vs I-A teams, losing by 5-4 points. Since ’12, Arizona is 9-7 as home underdogs. California is 2-6-1 in its last nine games as road favorites; they lost last two visits here by total of five points.

    1) UNLV has QB injury issues; Rogers has boot on left foot. Backup Gilliam is 0-1 passing; played in JC LY after red-shirting at Cal in ’16. UNLV is 4-7 in its last 11 games as home faves. New Mexico lost 52-43 at home to Liberty LW; they’re 15-10 in last 25 games as road underdogs.

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    MLB
    Dunkel

    Saturday, October 6


    Cleveland @ Houston

    Game 951-952
    October 6, 2018 @ 4:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Cleveland
    (Carrasco) 15.047
    Houston
    (Cole) 16.897
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Houston
    by 2
    6
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Houston
    -150
    7
    Dunkel Pick:
    Houston
    (-150); Under

    NY Yankees @ Boston


    Game 953-954
    October 6, 2018 @ 8:15 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    NY Yankees
    (Tanaka) 18.548
    Boston
    (Price) 14.624
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    NY Yankees
    by 4
    12
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Boston
    -115
    9
    Dunkel Pick:
    NY Yankees
    (-105); Over
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-06-2018 at 09:46 AM.

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    MLB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Saturday, October 6


    American League
    New York (101-63) @ Boston (109-54) (Boston leads series, 1-0)

    Tanaka is 0-1, 10.13 in his last two starts; his last four starts went over. He is 1-0, 7.58 in four starts vs Boston this year, with average total of 14.5 in those games. Team in his starts: 16-11, 10-5 road Tanaka is 2-2, 1.44 in four postseason starts.
    5-inning record: 16-6-5 Allowed run in 1st inning: 10-27

    Price is 2-8, 5.03 in 17 career postseason games (9 starts). He is 4-0, 2.48 in his last six home starts. Over is 4-1 in his last five starts overall. Team in his starts: 18-9, 8-4 home Price is 0-3, 11.74 in four starts vs New York this season.
    5-inning record: 16-5-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-27

    New York is 10-5 in its last 15 games, 5-3 in last eight road games. Red Sox are 4-5 in their last nine games; Boston is 11-9 vs New York this season; 8-3 at home, 3-6 in the Bronx.

    New York is in playoffs for third time in last six years; they haven’t been to a World Series since 2009. Red Sox are in playoffs for third year in row; they won World Series in 2013. Both managers here are rookie managers.

    Indians (91-72) @ Astros (104-59) Astros lead series, 1-0)
    Carrasco is 1-2, 2.90 in his last five starts (under 4-1). He is 1-1, 5.40 vs Houston this year. Team in his starts: 18-13, 9-7 road Carrasco threw 5.2 scoreless innings in his only career playoff start.
    5-inning record: 16-9-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 8-31

    Cole is 4-0, 3.53 in his last six starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. Cole allowed three runs in seven IP (112 PT) vs Indians May 27. Team in his starts: 21-13, 7-11 home Cole is 1-2, 3.94 in three postseason starts.
    5-inning record: 22-6-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-34

    Astros are 4-3 vs Cleveland this year; Indians are 1-3 in this ballpark- they’re in playoffs for 3rd year in row. Tribe hasn’t won World Series since 1948, but Francona won two WS titles with the Red Sox. Cleveland won a terrible AL Central; they won six of last ten games, are 6-8 in their last 14 road games.

    Astros won World Series LY; they’re in playoffs for third time in four years. Houston won nine of its last eleven games.

    ______________________________

    Teams’ records in first five innings:
    Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/18
    Boston 37-28-14……47-20-7……..84-48
    Clev 30-30-14……46-21-10……..76-51
    Astros 41-20-15……41-21-15…….82-41
    NYY 34-24-15……44-25-8………78-48

    %age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total- 9/18)
    Boston 19-76……29-74………47
    Clev 20-73…….31-76…….51
    Astros 21-75…..…18-76………39
    NYY 18-74……..31-76………49
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-06-2018 at 09:46 AM.

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    MLB

    Saturday, October 6


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Cleveland Indians
    Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
    Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
    Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
    Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Houston
    Houston Astros
    Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Houston is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games
    Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home
    Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
    Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Cleveland


    New York Yankees
    NY Yankees is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    NY Yankees is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games
    NY Yankees is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games on the road
    NY Yankees is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Boston
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing Boston
    NY Yankees is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
    NY Yankees is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Boston
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
    Boston Red Sox
    Boston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games
    Boston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Boston is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games at home
    Boston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
    Boston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
    Boston is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Yankees


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-06-2018 at 09:47 AM.

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    MLB
    Weather Report

    Saturday, October 6



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    MLB
    Long Sheet

    Saturday, October 6


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CLEVELAND (91 - 72) at HOUSTON (104 - 59) - 4:35 PM
    CARLOS CARRASCO (R) vs. GERRIT COLE (R)
    Top Trends for this game.
    CLEVELAND is 91-72 (-25.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
    CLEVELAND is 41-39 (-16.7 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
    CLEVELAND is 12-14 (-14.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday this season.
    CLEVELAND is 69-51 (-17.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
    CLEVELAND is 25-35 (-22.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    HOUSTON is 153-76 (+34.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 47-35 (-26.3 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
    HOUSTON is 274-313 (-73.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday since 1997.
    HOUSTON is 27-20 (-16.6 Units) against the money line in home games after a win this season.
    HOUSTON is 40-35 (-14.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    HOUSTON is 8-12 (-15.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    HOUSTON is 5-3 (+1.9 Units) against CLEVELAND this season
    6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.9 Units)

    CARLOS CARRASCO vs. HOUSTON since 1997
    CARRASCO is 4-2 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 3.52 and a WHIP of 1.087.
    His team's record is 4-3 (-0.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-3. (+0.7 units)

    GERRIT COLE vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
    COLE is 1-0 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 3.60 and a WHIP of 0.800.
    His team's record is 1-1 (-0.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.1 units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NY YANKEES (101 - 63) at BOSTON (109 - 54) - 8:15 PM
    MASAHIRO TANAKA (R) vs. DAVID PRICE (L)
    Top Trends for this game.
    NY YANKEES are 49-66 (-21.4 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    BOSTON is 109-54 (+32.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
    BOSTON is 50-23 (+15.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
    BOSTON is 53-24 (+18.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
    BOSTON is 87-38 (+31.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
    BOSTON is 74-34 (+23.5 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
    BOSTON is 40-28 (+10.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    PRICE is 99-44 (+37.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents since 1997. (Team's Record)
    NY YANKEES are 98-66 (+21.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    BOSTON is 240-239 (-63.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
    PRICE is 1-10 (-12.5 Units) against the money line in October games since 1997. (Team's Record)
    PRICE is 0-9 (-12.7 Units) against the money line in playoff games since 1997. (Team's Record)

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BOSTON is 11-9 (+2.0 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
    12 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+5.6 Units)

    MASAHIRO TANAKA vs. BOSTON since 1997
    TANAKA is 8-4 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 4.35 and a WHIP of 1.161.
    His team's record is 9-9 (-1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 11-6. (+4.4 units)

    DAVID PRICE vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
    PRICE is 15-14 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.97 and a WHIP of 1.422.
    His team's record is 23-18 (+0.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 13-26. (-17.2 units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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    POSTSEASON STARTER STAT OF THE DAY

    David Price, Boston Red Sox (16-7, 3.58 ERA, $1,294): Price emerged as one of the top value plays in the majors this season, ranking seventh among starting pitchers in units won – but he didn't do himself any favors in that regard over his final two regular-season starts. The veteran left-hander enters the playoffs having surrendered nine runs over his previous 10 1/3 innings, allowing five home runs while walking seven batters over that span.

    Neither the control issues nor the long ball concerns will play well against a Yankees team that will be looking to build on their late-game almost-rally in Friday's opener. Fade Price on Saturday, even with the Red Sox as a Pick'em at home.


    Flying Solo?

    The Astros did as we expected they would in their opener, riding a power surge to a comfortable win over the Indians. Houston blasted four solo home runs in the victory and could be in position to hit a few more long balls against Carrasco, who surrendered 21 home runs in his 32 starts; of those, 10 were solo shots. Cole allowed 11 solo blasts among his 19 home runs allowed.

    Given how both pitchers limit baserunners but combined to surrender 40 homers – over half of which came with no one on base – we like the first home run of the game to be a solo shot (-115).


    Early Action

    The Yankees are probably happy to have seen the last of Chris Sale for a while after struggling to do much of anything against him. Things should be better Saturday against Price, who boasts a dismal 4.20 first-inning ERA while giving up five home runs in the opening frame. New York ranked second in first-inning runs per game during the regular season at 0.73.

    With Price having been taken deep 12 times in the first two innings this season, and the Yankees coming off a major-league record for homers in a campaign, we suggest leaning toward the visitors to open the scoring (-150).


    Sweep Dreams

    With the first game under their belt, the Astros are now just two wins away from reaching the next stage in their quest to become the first back-to-back World Series champion since the 1998-2000 New York Yankees. A sweep is still in play, as well – and oddsmakers have made that the likeliest option, putting the odds at +200 compared to Cleveland winning at least one game at -240.

    If you're confident in the Astros winning the series but not via sweep, you can go for either a four-game win (+300) or a five-game triumph (+370).

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