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Thread: Wednesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/3

  1. #1
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    Default Wednesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/3

    Trends and Indexes

    Wednesday, October 3

    Good Luck on day #276 of 2018!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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  2. #2
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    Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

    Some interesting NFL trends for the week:

    — Arizona is 2-8 in its last ten games as road underdogs.

    — Denver is 2-13-1 vs spread in its last 16 games.

    — Detroit covered six of its last eight games.

    — Cleveland is 4-12 in its last 16 games as home underdogs.

    — Ravens are 13-4 vs spread in their last 17 divisional games.

    — Green Bay is 10-5 in its last 15 games as divisional road favorites.

    **********

    Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: In praise of these A’s……..

    13) Last three years, Oakland A’s finished last in AL West, winning 68-69-75 games.

    A’s have the lowest payroll in the major leagues, but they made the playoffs this season, going 97-65, something no one thought possible back in the spring. Great managing job by Bob Melvin; this is 4th time in last seven years Oakland is in the playoffs, but first time since 2014.

    How they’ve gotten to this point is really pretty amazing.

    12) Oakland has used 53 players this season, 33 of them pitchers.

    Their two best starting pitchers right now are Mike Fiers and Edwin Jackson; Fiers’ first game with the A’s was August 8, Jackson’s first game was June 25. Jackson is pitching for his 13th major league team.

    11) Kendall Graveman was Oakland’s Opening Day starter; he lasted until May 11 before he blew his arm out.

    Sean Manaea pitched a no-hitter against Boston, but he got hurt August 24 and is done until 2020. A’s went 16-11 in Manaea’s starts this year- they acquired him in the Ben Zobrist trade when Kansas City made their World Series run in 2015.

    Gossett, Triggs, Montas, Blackburn started a combined 31 games; A’s went 17-14 in those games.

    10) February 12, 2016, the A’s traded two minor leaguers to Milwaukee for Khris Davis, who has gone on to hit 133 homers, knock in 335 runs. Pretty good trade.

    One of the minor leaguers, Jacob Nottingham, has appeared in nine major league games. Davis is mostly a DH, so he wouldn’t have done Milwaukee much good, but a damn good trade.

    9) On March 12, 2018, Oakland signed C Jonathan Lucroy, giving their pitchers/defenses an anchor, the team a leader. Lucroy hasn’t hit much, but this will be his third straight year in the playoffs (Texas 2016, Colorado 2017). His acquisition was huge for the A’s.

    8) Ramon Laureano is a 24-year old OF who hit .227 in the AA Texas League LY; when you hit .227 in the hitter-friendly Texas League, it is usually time to start looking for a new career, but since making his Oakland debut August 3, Laureano has an on-base% of .364, is a terrific CF with a great arm- he doubled a runner off first base in Anaheim with a throw that went 107 yards in the air!!!!

    A’s got him from Houston in a trade for a pitcher who went 5-8 in A ball this year.

    7) When they make Moneyball 2, the story of Stephen Piscotty’s family will be front/center. St Louis was going to trade Piscotty last winter, but his mother had Alzheimer’s and he wanted to be close to her in her final months, so Piscotty asked to be traded to the A’s or Giants.

    Last December, he got traded to Oakland and has hit 27 homers with 88 RBI, many of them in key spots. Quite a story.

    6) Last July, the A’s were awful and Washington needed bullpen help to make the playoffs, so Oakland dealt Doolittle/Madson to Washington for Blake Treinen and two minor leaguers (one of whom is Jesus Luzardo, a big prospect).

    Treinen has turned into one of the best closers this season, with 38 saves. Luzardo is expected to be a star down the road.

    5) 41-year old Fernando Rodney (acquired August 9) and Jeurys Familia (July 21) pitch the 7th and 8th innings if the A’s are winning. When your starting pitchers are mostly all hurt and have a hard time finishing six innings, you load up on relievers and hope the starting pitcher gets 15 outs. Lou Trivino pitched the 6th inning most of the season, when needed.

    4) Oakland’s infielders are very good; a pair of Matts, Chapman/Olson are young corner infielders who appear headed for stardom. Chapman and Nolan Arenado and the two best defensive 3B in the major leagues right now.

    Marcus Semien/Jed Lowrie give the A’s solid defense up the middle and timely hitting- Lowrie knocked in 99 runs. It is so unusual for a playoff team to have starting pitching being the weakest part of the team.

    3) On June 5, the A’s lost 6-4 to the Angels, dropping them to 34-36; since then, Oakland is 63-29, the best record in MLB during that time. An astounding turnaround.

    2) Bob Melvin managed the Mariners for two years, Arizona for five; this is his 8th year with Oakland, his hometown team. Can’t imagine why he got fired from the other places; he is calm, smart and guys play their butts off for him, otherwise a 34-36 team wouldn’t go on a 62-27 run. Excellent manager.

    1) This is the 50th anniversary of the A’s first season in Oakland, after they moved west from Kansas City. It has been a great season for these guys; hopefully it’ll last another month or so.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-03-2018 at 11:40 AM.

  3. #3
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    MLB
    Dunkel

    Wednesday, October 3



    Oakland @ NY Yankees

    Game 939-940
    October 3, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Oakland
    (Hendriks) 16.004
    NY Yankees
    (Severino) 17.240
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    NY Yankees
    by 1
    13
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    NY Yankees
    -180
    8 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    NY Yankees
    (-180); Over





    MLB
    Long Sheet

    Wednesday, October 3


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    OAKLAND (97 - 65) at NY YANKEES (100 - 62) - 8:05 PM
    LIAM HENDRIKS (R) vs. LUIS SEVERINO (R)
    Top Trends for this game.
    NY YANKEES are 97-65 (+21.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    OAKLAND is 97-65 (+36.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
    OAKLAND is 44-33 (+12.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
    OAKLAND is 47-34 (+19.6 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
    OAKLAND is 60-43 (+20.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
    OAKLAND is 65-40 (+28.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
    OAKLAND is 41-23 (+24.4 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
    OAKLAND is 41-43 (+7.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    OAKLAND is 23-19 (+10.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    OAKLAND is 3-3 (+1.3 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
    4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

    LIAM HENDRIKS vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
    HENDRIKS is 0-1 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 7.37 and a WHIP of 1.228.
    His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

    LUIS SEVERINO vs. OAKLAND since 1997
    SEVERINO is 1-1 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 5.22 and a WHIP of 1.403.
    His team's record is 1-3 (-3.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-3. (-2.3 units)

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    MLB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Wednesday, October 3


    American League
    A’s (97-65) @ New York (100-62)

    Oakland will use its bullpen in this game; not sure who comes in after Hendriks pitches the first inning. Hendriks didn’t allow a run in his last 11 appearances (11.1 IP). Team in his starts: 4-4, 1-1 road Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-8

    Severino is 2-0, 2.25 in his last two starts; over is 7-2 in his last nine. Team in his starts: 24-8, 13-1 home
    5-inning record: 20-8-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 9-32

    A’s are 7-5 in their last 12 games; they split six games with New York this year- home team won four of those six games. New York is 9-4 in its last 13 games.

    A’s are in playoffs for first time since 2014; they won 22 games more than they did LY. New York is in playoffs for third time in last six years; they haven’t been to a World Series since 2009.

    ______________________________

    Teams’ records in first five innings:
    Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/18
    NYY 34-24-15……44-25-8………78-48
    A’s 27-34-12……36-28-14…..63-62


    %age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total- 9/18)
    NYY 18-74……..31-76………49
    A’s 18-77…..…..23-76…….41




    MLB
    Weather Report

    Wednesday, October 3







    MLB

    Wednesday, October 3


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Oakland Athletics
    Oakland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Oakland's last 14 games
    Oakland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games on the road
    Oakland is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing NY Yankees
    Oakland is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing NY Yankees
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
    Oakland is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
    Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
    New York Yankees
    NY Yankees is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
    NY Yankees is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games at home
    NY Yankees is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    NY Yankees is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games
    NY Yankees is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Oakland
    NY Yankees is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Oakland
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing Oakland
    NY Yankees is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Oakland
    NY Yankees is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-03-2018 at 11:42 AM.

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    NLDS Cheat Sheet
    Kevin Rogers

    2018 Head-to-Head Matchups (Milwaukee 5-2, Under 4-3)

    Milwaukee vs. Colorado (Coors Field)

    May 10 – Brewers 5, Rockies 2 (Under 11 ½)
    May 11 – Brewers 11, Rockies 10 (Over 11 ½)
    May 12 – Rockies 4, Brewers 0 (Under 11)
    May 13 – Brewers 7, Rockies 3 (Under 10 ½)

    Colorado vs. Milwaukee (Miller Park)
    August 3 – Brewers 5, Rockies 3 (Under 8 ½)
    August 4 – Brewers 8, Rockies 4 (Over 8 ½)
    August 5 – Rockies 5, Brewers 4 (Over 8 ½)

    This month may be referred to as “Rocktober” in the Denver area after the Rockies eliminated the Cubs in the NL Wild Card game in 13 innings. However, the Rockies’ opponent in the NLDS is riding plenty of momentum as the Brewers are red-hot following a spectacular September.

    On September 1, following a one-run loss to the Nationals coupled with a Cubs’ blowout win over the Phillies, the Brewers sat five games out of the lead in the NL Central race. Milwaukee turned it up over the next 30 days by winning 20 of the final 26 games, including Monday’s 3-1 triumph at Chicago to wrap up its first division title since 2011. Also, the Brewers went from potentially hosting the NL Wild Card game (with a loss to the Cubs) to owning home-field advantage throughout the National League playoffs.

    Milwaukee’s resurgence this season following an 86-76 campaign in 2017 is attributed to several key offensive additions in the offseason. Most notably the pickup of outfielder Christian Yelich from the Marlins, who captured the NL batting title (.326), while finishing tied for third in home runs (36), and tied for second in RBI (110). Lorenzo Cain returned to Milwaukee after a successful stint in Kansas City as the center fielder hit .308 to go along with 30 stolen bases, which both ranked in the top-five in the NL.

    The Brewers’ pitching staff showcased only one hurler that won double-digit games as former Colorado right-hander Jhoulys Chacin won a career-best 15 starts. Chacin posted career-highs in strikeouts (156) and WHIP (1.16) in his first season with the Brewers, but has lost his last three starts at Miller Park. Chacin beat the Rockies at Coors Field in May as a +135 underdog, 5-2 by tossing 5.2 innings and yielding four hits and two runs.

    The Rockies overcame a ridiculous travel schedule in a three-day stretch to reach the NLDS for the first time since 2009. Colorado forced a Game 163 by routing Washington at home on Sunday, but the Rockies lost to the Dodgers in Los Angeles, 5-2 to be denied their first-ever NL West title. The Rockies then had to travel to Chicago to face a Cubs’ team that had been at home the entire weekend plus Monday in their pseudo-division championship game against the Brewers.

    Colorado held off Chicago, 2-1 in 13 innings to bounce back from last year’s Wild Card loss at Arizona as the Rockies improved 10-2 in the last 12 games overall. In Tuesday’s victory at Wrigley Field, Rockies’ southpaw Kyle Freeland tossed 6.2 spectacular innings in his playoff debut as the Rockies moved to 16-2 in his previous 18 starts.

    Although he lost in Game 163 to the Dodgers, right-hander German Marquez has been a key member of the Rockies’ rotation this season. Colorado has compiled a 12-5 record in his past 17 starts since the end of June, while dominating Milwaukee at Miller Park in early August. Marquez scattered three hits and two runs in seven innings, but the Colorado bullpen couldn’t hold onto a 3-2 lead as Milwaukee walked-off in the ninth inning in a 5-3 triumph.

    The Brewers and Rockies are meeting in the playoffs for the first time ever as Colorado is looking to advance past the NLDS for the first time since capturing the pennant in 2007. The Brewers last reached the NLCS in 2011 as they lost to the Cardinals, while never making the World Series since moving to the National League in 1998.


    2018 Head-to-Head Matchups (Los Angeles 5-2, Over 4-3)

    Atlanta vs. Los Angeles (Dodger Stadium)

    June 8 – Dodgers 3, Braves 1 (Over 7 ½)
    June 9 – Braves 5, Dodgers 3 (Over 7 ½)
    June 10 – Dodgers 7, Braves 2 (Over 7)

    Los Angeles vs. Atlanta (SunTrust Park)
    July 26 – Dodgers 8, Braves 2 (Over 8 ½)
    July 27 – Dodgers 4, Braves 1 (Under 8)
    July 28 – Dodgers 5, Braves 1 (Under 9)
    July 29 – Braves 4, Dodgers 1 (Under 8 ½)

    Four of the five playoff teams in the National League needed to play on Monday to decide the NL Central and NL West titles. The only team to sit back and kick their feet was the NL East champion Braves, who captured their first division crown since 2013, but owned the fewest wins of any playoff squad with 90.

    Atlanta beat up the competition inside the NL East, specifically the Marlins, Phillies, and Mets, the three teams that finished with losing records. The Braves posted a solid 39-18 record against those squads, but went 51-54 against the rest of the league, while failed to put together a winning mark against any of the other NL playoff teams in the regular season.

    On the positive side, the Braves finished second in the National League in batting average at .257 behind the Cubs, while scoring 759 runs, which ranked tied for fourth in the NL with the Cardinals. Three Braves’ starting pitchers owned an ERA of 3.00 or less, led by right-hander Mike Foltynewicz, who won a team-best 13 games, while mid-season acquisition Kevin Gausman was unbeaten in five starts at SunTrust Park.

    Foltynewicz struck out the sixth-most batters in the NL this season with 202, while fellow starters Sean Newcomb and Julio Teheran each struck out over 160 batters. In his only start against the Dodgers this season, Foltynewicz allowed four runs in five innings of a 4-1 home defeat in July. Newcomb nearly no-hit the Dodgers in that same July series, as the southpaw settled for a 4-1 underdog victory. However, Newcomb struggled down the stretch as the Braves lost five of his final seven starts.

    The Dodgers won 13 of their final 17 games to force a division championship game on Monday against the Rockies. Los Angeles cruised to a 5-2 victory to wrap up its sixth consecutive NL West title, while improving to 13-4 at home the last 17 games since getting swept by St. Louis in late August.

    Prior to this season, not many people would predict that Max Muncy and Matt Kemp, who were not on the Dodgers’ roster last season, would combine for 56 home runs and 164 runs batted in. The Dodgers showcased seven players to hit at least 20 home runs this season, which doesn’t include Manny Machado, who knocked out a total of 37 home runs between his time and Los Angeles and Baltimore.

    The big question heading into the postseason following last year’s Game 7 loss in the World Series to Houston is whether or not Clayton Kershaw can lead the Dodgers to their first championship since 1988. Los Angeles won four of Kershaw’s five postseason starts in 2017, but had to pitch out of the bullpen in Game 7 after the Dodgers trailed, 5-0 to the Astros. Kershaw is unbeaten in his last eight starts, while he shut down the Braves at SunTrust Park in July as the Dodgers are 7-0 in his past seven starts against Atlanta dating back to 2013.

    However, Kershaw will start Game 2 for Los Angeles and turn to another left-hander in Game 1 as Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the ball. Ryu closed the regular season on fire by winning each of his final three starts, while allowing four hits in each outing and a total of one run. In Ryu’s nine home starts this season, the Dodgers posted a solid 7-2 mark as he owned a miniscule ERA of 1.15 at Chavez Ravine.

    The Dodgers and Braves are meeting in the playoffs for the third time ever as Los Angeles eliminated Atlanta in four games of the NLDS back in 2013. Los Angeles had advanced to the NLCS in each of the past two seasons, while Atlanta is seeking its first trip to the NLCS since 2001 as the Braves have lost seven consecutive playoff series.

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