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Thread: NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 5 (Thur. Oct. 4 - Mon. Oct. 8)

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    Default NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 5 (Thur. Oct. 4 - Mon. Oct. 8)



    NFL Trends and Indexes

    Thursday. October 4 - Monday. October 8

    Additional trends and information will be added as available.

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Patriots back in betting form as double-digit faves in NFL Week 5 odds
    Patrick Everson

    Tom Brady had plenty to pump his fist about Sunday, when New England hammered Miami 38-7. That led to the Patriots opening as 10.5-point Week 5 home favorites against the Colts.

    Week 5 of the NFL season puts the Thursday night prime-time spotlight on the defending AFC champion. We check in on the opening lines and early action for a quartet of contests, with insights from John Murray, sportsbook manager at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.
    Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-10.5)

    New England dropped two in a row and didn’t look good in doing so, at Jacksonville and at Detroit. But the Patriots (2-2 SU and ATS) looked like their old elite selves in Week 4, hammering previously unbeaten Miami 38-7 as a 6.5-point home favorite.

    Indianapolis has quarterback Andrew Luck back this season, but his presence isn’t showing up much in the win column through the first month. The Colts (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) staged a big comeback to force overtime against Houston on Sunday, but ultimately lost 37-34 as a 1-point home underdog.

    “We opened this one Patriots -10.5, which is up 3 points from our lookahead number (last week) of Patriots -7.5,” Murray said. “New England looked like the defending AFC champion, and the Colts are coming off an overtime loss and have to go on the road in a short week. Tough spot for Indianapolis here.”

    That said, the line ticked down a half-point to 10 on Sunday night.

    Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)

    Atlanta could certainly be 3-1 at this point, and arguably even 4-0, but the football gods definitely haven’t been on the Falcons’ side the past two weeks. After falling at home in overtime to New Orleans in Week 3, Atlanta (1-3 SU and ATS) gave up a final-seconds score to Cincinnati in a 37-36 Week 4 home loss as a 3.5-point fave.

    Pittsburgh has plenty of discord this season, coupled with a lack of Le’Veon Bell, the stud running back who continues to hold out. The struggle continued in the Week 4 Sunday nighter, with the Steelers (1-2-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) losing to Baltimore 26-14 as a 3-point home chalk.

    “We opened it Steelers -4 and closed it when the Sunday night game kicked off,” Murray said. “Really tough loss for Atlanta. The Falcons’ secondary looked awful, and they’re in for an even tougher test next week at Heinz Field against Big Ben, Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster. There will be a lot of scoring in this one.”


    Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

    Jacksonville looked like the new “It” team when it rolled past visiting New England in Week 2, only to muddle through a 9-6 home loss to Tennessee the following week. However, the Jaguars (3-1 SU and ATS) got back on track in Week 4, drilling the New York Jets 31-12 laying 7.5 points at home.

    Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes has been a huge eye-opener early this season, throwing 13 TD passes with zero interceptions through three weeks. The Chiefs (3-0 SU and ATS) averaged 39.3 points per game in those three wins, but they still have work left to do in Week 4, traveling to face Denver in the Monday nighter.

    “We opened Chiefs -3 (-110), took some money on Kansas City and moved it to -3 (-120),” Murray said. “This line could change, depending on how the Chiefs look in Denver.”


    Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

    It’s a rematch of last season’s NFC final, though neither team is in quite that form. Philadelphia, which lost only three games all of last year en route to winning the Super Bowl, already has two losses on its 2018-19 record. In Week 4, the Eagles (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) tumbled at Tennessee 26-23 in overtime giving 3 points.

    Minnesota got a nice Week 1 win over a then-Jimmy Garoppolo-led San Francisco squad, but is winless since then. The Vikings (1-2-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) couldn’t quite keep pace with the high-octane Los Angeles Rams last Thursday, losing 38-31 as a 7.5-point road pup.

    “We opened Eagles -3 in the NFC Championship Game rematch,” Murray said. “Philly is coming off a really disappointing loss to the Titans, and the Vikings need a win as well to avoid a 1-3-1 start. Minnesota with three extra days to prepare here, in a big game for both teams.”
    Last edited by Udog; 10-03-2018 at 08:45 AM.

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    Betting Recap - Week 4
    Joe Williams

    Overall Notes

    National Football League Week 4 Results

    Wager Favorites-Underdogs
    Straight Up 11-3
    Against the Spread 7-6-1

    Wager Home-Away
    Straight Up 9-5
    Against the Spread 7-6-1

    Wager Totals (O/U)
    Over-Under 8-8

    National Football League Year-to-Date Results

    Wager Favorites-Underdogs
    Straight Up 38-22-2
    Against the Spread 27-33-2

    Wager Home-Away
    Straight Up 38-22-2
    Against the Spread 33-27-2

    Wager Totals (O/U)
    Over-Under 33-31

    The largest underdogs to win straight up
    Bengals (+3.5, ML +165) at Falcons, 37-36
    Ravens (+3, ML +140) at Steelers, 26-14
    Titans (+3, ML +130) vs. Eagles, 26-23 (OT)

    The largest favorite to cover
    Packers (-9) vs. Bills, 22-0
    Jaguars (-7.5) vs. Jets, 31-12
    Patriots (-6.5) vs. Dolphins, 38-7

    May Day Mayfield

    -- The Cleveland Browns probably should have come away with a 42-34 win against the Oakland Raiders in Week 5, as it appeared from every angle on the telecast that RB Carlos Hyde converted a first down which would have meant the Browns could simply take a knee. It's uncertain where the officials saw conclusive evidence, but they overturned the first-down call on the field and it brought up fourth down, giving the Raiders a chance. They picked up a touchdown and game-tying two-point conversion to force OT, winning it with a field goal, 45-42. Lost in the review controversy was Mayfield, who had two touchdowns in his first NFL start, but he also had two interceptions and two lost fumbles. Since 2002, quarterbacks who were No. 1 overall picks making the first NFL start are now 0-11 SU/ATS. Houston's David Carr is the last to successfully win and cover in his debut. It's ironic his brother, Derek, extended that streak by rallying to beat Mayfield.

    Second-Half Ravens

    -- The Baltimore Ravens blanked the Pittsburgh Steelers in the second half at Heinz Field on Sunday Night Football, and they have now outscored their opponents 49-9 in the second half through four games in 2018. It was another 'under' result on Sunday night, too, as underdogs and the under are now 4-1 in five SNF games so far this season.

    Total Recall

    -- The two lowest totals on the board (40), N.Y. Jets-Jacksonville and Seattle-Arizona, split 1-1. The Jags nearly took care of the 'over' themselves with 31 points. 'Over' bettors were hoping for overtime in the Seahawks game, but Sebastian Janikowski banged home a long field goal at the buzzer to sink the Cardinals and save 'under' bettors. In the Philadelphia-Tennessee (41.5) game, it was OT which saved over bettors. A flurry of points in the fourth quarter had the Eagles and Titans tied 20-20. The Eagles struck first with a field goal, but WR Corey Davis walked it off with a touchdown in the 26-23 win.

    -- The highest total on the board in Week 4 was Cincinnati-Atlanta (52.5), and that game featured the most points outside of the Cleveland-Oakland tilt. The Bengals ralled for a 37-36 win to sink the Falcons, who have yielded 79 points over their past two home games, thanks largely in part to several key defensive season-ending injuries during the early going. The next three highest totals on the board, New Orleans-N.Y. Giants (52), Baltimore-Pittsburgh (51.5) and Miami-New England (50.5) each cashed under.

    -- The 'over' has now cashed in all four games for the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers are the only two teams in the AFC with a 4-0 'over' mark so far, with the Kansas City Chiefs looking to join the club on Monday against the Denver Broncos. Meanwhile, the under is 4-0 for the Arizona Cardinals so far this season, while the Dallas Cowboys saw their first 'over' result after a 3-0 'under' run to start 2018.

    -- There are two primetime games in the books so far in Week 4, with the 'over/under' 1-1 with the MNF game pending. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 5-7 (41.7%).

    Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

    In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

    In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

    In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

    Injury Report

    -- Bengals TE Tyler Eifert (ankle) suffered what is believed to be a season-ending broken ankle in Sunday's 37-36 win in Atlanta.

    -- Buccaneers TE O.J. Howard (knee) left the blowout loss in Chicago and he will have an MRI on Monday, although head coach Dirk Koetter seemed optimistic that the injury isn't that bad.

    -- Colts WR T.Y. Hilton (hamstring) suffered a hamstring injury in the team's OT loss against the Texans and head coach Frank Reich said after the game that Hilton's outlook isn't good for the quick turnaround Thursday in New England.

    -- Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) returned from a hamstring injury, but aggravated the ailment and was back on the shelf by mid-game.

    -- Patrioits TE Rob Gronkowski (ankle) left with an ankle injury and he did not return. However, with a lopsided score on the board, he might have simply been held out as a precaution.

    -- Seahawks S Earl Thomas (knee) suffered a broken leg in Sunday's game in Arizona, but nothing was wrong with his finger. TE Will Dissly (knee) suffered what is believed to be a season-ending injury, too.

    -- Texans WR Will Fuller (hamstring) left the team's game in the third quarter and he was unable to return.

    Looking Ahead

    -- The Browns host the Ravens in AFC North action. The Ravens have won and covered five in a row in this series, and the 'under' has connected in three consecutive meetings. However, the 'over' is 4-1 in the past five meetings at First Energy Stadium in Cleveland. The last time the Browns won at home against the Ravens came back on Nov. 3, 2013, a 24-18 win and cover.

    -- The Lions return home to face the Packers at Ford Field. The home team is just 3-4 SU in the past seven meetings in this NFC North battle. The 'over' has connected in five straight meetings, and three in a row at Ford Field. The Lions swept this series and covered both games in 2017.

    -- The Raiders will travel to the Los Angeles area to battle the Chargers, and they should have plenty of fans travelling with them. The Chargers franchise is 4-2 SU over the past six home games, and 9-4 SU in the past 13 battles in L.A./San Diego. However, the Chargers are just 2-7 ATS in their past nine home games against the Raiders. The 'under' is also 4-1 in the past five meetings in L.A./San Diego, and 10-2-1 in the past 13 battles in Southern California.

    -- The Cardinals travel to meet the 49ers in Santa Clara, and San Francisco is looking to snap a six-game losing skid in the series. They're also 1-3 ATS in their past four home games against Arizona, while the 'under' is 3-1 in the past four in the Bay Area and 6-2 in the past eight meetings overall in this series.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-03-2018 at 01:48 AM.

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    NFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 5


    Thursday. October 4

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    INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 3) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 2) - 10/4/2018, 8:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ENGLAND is 30-12 ATS (+16.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 30-12 ATS (+16.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 29-12 ATS (+15.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
    NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
    NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 67-45 ATS (+17.5 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    Sunday. October 7

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    BALTIMORE (3 - 1) at CLEVELAND (1 - 2 - 1) - 10/7/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CLEVELAND is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BALTIMORE is 4-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
    BALTIMORE is 4-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    JACKSONVILLE (3 - 1) at KANSAS CITY (3 - 0) - 10/7/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    KANSAS CITY is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
    KANSAS CITY is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games against AFC South division opponents since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
    KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    TENNESSEE (3 - 1) at BUFFALO (1 - 3) - 10/7/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TENNESSEE is 114-147 ATS (-47.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
    BUFFALO is 44-25 ATS (+16.5 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    NY GIANTS (1 - 3) at CAROLINA (2 - 1) - 10/7/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CAROLINA is 158-123 ATS (+22.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    CAROLINA is 83-50 ATS (+28.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    DENVER (2 - 1) at NY JETS (1 - 3) - 10/7/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DENVER is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    DENVER is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    DENVER is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
    DENVER is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    DENVER is 60-84 ATS (-32.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
    DENVER is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
    DENVER is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    ATLANTA (1 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (1 - 2 - 1) - 10/7/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PITTSBURGH is 105-78 ATS (+19.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
    PITTSBURGH is 61-36 ATS (+21.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
    PITTSBURGH is 68-43 ATS (+20.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    GREEN BAY (2 - 1 - 1) at DETROIT (1 - 3) - 10/7/2018, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DETROIT is 2-2 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
    DETROIT is 2-2 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    MIAMI (3 - 1) at CINCINNATI (3 - 1) - 10/7/2018, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
    CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    OAKLAND (1 - 3) at LA CHARGERS (2 - 2) - 10/7/2018, 4:05 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    LA CHARGERS is 3-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
    LA CHARGERS is 2-2 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    ARIZONA (0 - 4) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 3) - 10/7/2018, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ARIZONA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SAN FRANCISCO is 2-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
    ARIZONA is 4-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    MINNESOTA (1 - 2 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 2) - 10/7/2018, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PHILADELPHIA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
    PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    LA RAMS (4 - 0) at SEATTLE (2 - 2) - 10/7/2018, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA RAMS is 187-232 ATS (-68.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 187-232 ATS (-68.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 87-121 ATS (-46.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 133-183 ATS (-68.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
    SEATTLE is 35-61 ATS (-32.1 Units) in October games since 1992.
    SEATTLE is 42-67 ATS (-31.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SEATTLE is 2-2 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
    SEATTLE is 2-2 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    DALLAS (2 - 2) at HOUSTON (1 - 3) - 10/7/2018, 8:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    HOUSTON is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    Monday. October 8

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    WASHINGTON (2 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (3 - 1) - 10/8/2018, 8:15 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    WASHINGTON is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.
    NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-03-2018 at 01:49 AM.

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    NFL

    Week 5


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    Trend Report
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    Thursday. October 4

    Indianapolis Colts
    Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Indianapolis is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 12 games
    Indianapolis is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Indianapolis is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
    Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
    Indianapolis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 8 games when playing New England
    Indianapolis is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against New England
    Indianapolis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
    New England Patriots
    New England is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games
    New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    New England is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 13 of New England's last 19 games
    New England is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games at home
    New England is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games at home
    New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
    New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 8 games when playing Indianapolis
    New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis



    Sunday. October 7

    Jacksonville Jaguars
    Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Jacksonville is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
    Jacksonville is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
    Jacksonville is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 9 games on the road
    Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
    Jacksonville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
    Kansas City Chiefs
    Kansas City is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
    Kansas City is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
    Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games at home
    Kansas City is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
    Kansas City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville


    Tennessee Titans
    Tennessee is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
    Tennessee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
    Tennessee is 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games on the road
    Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
    Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
    Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
    Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
    Buffalo Bills
    Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games
    Buffalo is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 14 of Buffalo's last 17 games at home
    Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
    Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
    Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
    Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing at home against Tennessee


    Atlanta Falcons
    Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 11 games
    Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
    Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
    Atlanta is 1-9-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing Pittsburgh
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
    Atlanta is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
    Pittsburgh Steelers
    Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
    Pittsburgh is 11-4-1 SU in its last 16 games
    Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
    Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Pittsburgh is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games at home
    Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games at home
    Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
    Pittsburgh is 9-1-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing Atlanta
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
    Pittsburgh is 4-0-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta


    Denver Broncos
    Denver is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Denver is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games
    Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
    Denver is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games on the road
    Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Jets
    Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Jets
    Denver is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
    Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
    New York Jets
    NY Jets is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
    NY Jets is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games
    NY Jets is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home
    NY Jets is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games at home
    NY Jets is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
    NY Jets is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
    NY Jets is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
    NY Jets is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing at home against Denver


    Green Bay Packers
    Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    Green Bay is 2-4-1 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games
    Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games on the road
    Green Bay is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games when playing Detroit
    Green Bay is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Detroit
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Detroit
    Green Bay is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Detroit
    Green Bay is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Detroit
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
    Detroit Lions
    Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
    Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit's last 11 games at home
    Detroit is 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games when playing Green Bay
    Detroit is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games when playing Green Bay
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
    Detroit is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Green Bay
    Detroit is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Green Bay
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay


    Baltimore Ravens
    Baltimore is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
    Baltimore is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
    Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Baltimore is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 9 games on the road
    Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
    Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Baltimore's last 15 games when playing Cleveland
    Baltimore is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
    Baltimore is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
    Cleveland Browns
    Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Cleveland is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games
    Cleveland is 1-19-1 SU in its last 21 games
    Cleveland is 6-18-1 ATS in its last 25 games at home
    Cleveland is 1-8-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Cleveland's last 15 games at home
    Cleveland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
    Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cleveland's last 15 games when playing Baltimore
    Cleveland is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Baltimore
    Cleveland is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Baltimore


    New York Giants
    NY Giants is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    NY Giants is 4-17 SU in its last 21 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games
    NY Giants is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    NY Giants is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games on the road
    NY Giants is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 7 games when playing Carolina
    Carolina Panthers
    Carolina is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
    Carolina is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Carolina's last 11 games
    Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games at home
    Carolina is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing NY Giants
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing NY Giants


    Miami Dolphins
    Miami is 5-8-2 ATS in its last 15 games
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Miami's last 15 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
    Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Miami is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    Miami is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Cincinnati
    Miami is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing Cincinnati
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
    Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
    Miami is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
    Cincinnati Bengals
    Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
    Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Cincinnati is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games at home
    Cincinnati is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Miami
    Cincinnati is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing Miami
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Miami
    Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
    Cincinnati is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Miami
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing at home against Miami


    Oakland Raiders
    Oakland is 5-11-2 ATS in its last 18 games
    Oakland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Oakland's last 11 games
    Oakland is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
    Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games on the road
    Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
    Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
    Oakland is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing LA Chargers
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
    Oakland is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
    Oakland is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
    Los Angeles Chargers
    LA Chargers is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Chargers's last 15 games
    LA Chargers is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games at home
    LA Chargers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
    LA Chargers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
    LA Chargers is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Oakland
    LA Chargers is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing Oakland
    LA Chargers is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Oakland
    LA Chargers is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Oakland
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland


    Arizona Cardinals
    Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Arizona's last 8 games
    Arizona is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
    Arizona is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 13 of Arizona's last 19 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 8 games on the road
    Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
    Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
    Arizona is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
    San Francisco 49ers
    San Francisco is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
    San Francisco is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games
    San Francisco is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games at home
    San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    San Francisco is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games at home
    San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Arizona
    San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
    San Francisco is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Arizona


    Los Angeles Rams
    LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Rams's last 10 games
    LA Rams is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
    LA Rams is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Rams's last 9 games on the road
    LA Rams is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
    LA Rams is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
    LA Rams is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing Seattle
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing Seattle
    LA Rams is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Seattle
    LA Rams is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Seattle
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
    Seattle Seahawks
    Seattle is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games
    Seattle is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    Seattle is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games at home
    Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
    Seattle is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
    Seattle is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing LA Rams
    Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing LA Rams
    Seattle is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against LA Rams
    Seattle is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against LA Rams
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams


    Minnesota Vikings
    Minnesota is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    Minnesota is 13-4-1 SU in its last 18 games
    Minnesota is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games
    Minnesota is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Minnesota is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
    Minnesota is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Philadelphia
    Minnesota is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Philadelphia
    Minnesota is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
    Minnesota is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
    Philadelphia Eagles
    Philadelphia is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
    Philadelphia is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games at home
    Philadelphia is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games at home
    Philadelphia is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Minnesota
    Philadelphia is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota
    Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota
    Philadelphia is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota


    Dallas Cowboys
    Dallas is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    Dallas is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games
    Dallas is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Dallas is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
    Houston Texans
    Houston is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games
    Houston is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
    Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home



    Monday. October 8

    Washington Redskins
    Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
    Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 14 of Washington's last 21 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
    Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
    Washington is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing New Orleans
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
    Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
    Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
    New Orleans Saints
    New Orleans is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games
    New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
    New Orleans is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing Washington
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Washington
    New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
    New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against Washington


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-03-2018 at 01:50 AM.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    73,158
    Credits
    181,706

    Default

    NFL
    Dunkel

    Week 5


    Thursday. October 4

    Indianapolis @ New England

    Game 301-302
    October 4, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Indianapolis
    127.961
    New England
    135.625
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New England
    by 7 1/2
    42
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New England
    by 10 1/2
    51 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Indianapolis
    (+10 1/2); Under



    Sunday, October 7

    Baltimore @ Cleveland

    Game 951-952
    October 7, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Baltimore
    132.675
    Cleveland
    131.283
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Baltimore
    by 1 1/2
    44
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Baltimore
    by 3
    47 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Cleveland
    (+3); Under

    Jacksonville @ Kansas City


    Game 953-954
    October 7, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Jacksonville
    131.572
    Kansas City
    141.707
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Kansas City
    by 10
    44
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Kansas City
    by 3
    49
    Dunkel Pick:
    Kansas City
    (-3); Under

    Tennessee @ Buffalo


    Game 955-956
    October 7, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Tennessee
    133.775
    Buffalo
    125.405
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Tennessee
    by 8 1/2
    32
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Tennessee
    by 3 1/2
    39
    Dunkel Pick:
    Tennessee
    (-3 1/2); Under

    NY Giants @ Carolina


    Game 457-458
    October 7, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    NY Giants
    129.995
    Carolina
    131.217
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Carolina
    by 1
    47
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Carolina
    by 7
    44
    Dunkel Pick:
    NY Giants
    (+7); Over

    Denver @ NY Jets


    Game 959-960
    October 7, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Denver
    128.356
    NY Jets
    126.726
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Denver
    by 1 1/2
    40
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    NY Jets
    by 1
    42 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Denver
    (+1); Under

    Atlanta @ Pittsburgh


    Game 961-962
    October 7, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Atlanta
    129.407
    Pittsburgh
    138.270
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 9
    52
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 3
    57 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Pittsburgh
    (-3); Under

    Green Bay @ Detroit


    Game 463-464
    October 7, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Green Bay
    132.604
    Detroit
    129.085
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Green Bay
    by 3 1/2
    48
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Green Bay
    by 1
    51
    Dunkel Pick:
    Green Bay
    (-1); Under

    Miami @ Cincinnati


    Game 465-466
    October 7, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Miami
    129.429
    Cincinnati
    128.872
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Miami
    by 1
    46
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Cincinnati
    by 6 1/2
    49 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Miami
    (+6 1/2); Under

    Oakland @ LA Chargers


    Game 467-468
    October 7, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Oakland
    130.152
    LA Chargers
    127.081
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Oakland
    by 3
    55
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Chargers
    by 6
    53
    Dunkel Pick:
    Oakland
    (+6); Over

    Arizona @ San Francisco


    Game 469-470
    October 7, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Arizona
    124.019
    San Francisco
    131.693
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    San Francisco
    by 7 1/2
    56
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    San Francisco
    by 4 1/2
    41
    Dunkel Pick:
    San Francisco
    (-4 1/2); Over

    Minnesota @ Philadelphia


    Game 471-472
    October 7, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Minnesota
    127.726
    Philadelphia
    137.161
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 9 1/2
    42
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 3
    45
    Dunkel Pick:
    Philadelphia
    (-3); Under

    LA Rams @ Seattle


    Game 473-474
    October 7, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Rams
    140.611
    Seattle
    130.900
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Rams
    by 9 1/2
    39
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Rams
    by 7
    51
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Rams
    (-7); Under

    Dallas @ Houston


    Game 475-476
    October 7, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Dallas
    124.475
    Houston
    129.822
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Houston
    by 5 1/2
    39
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Houston
    by 3
    45 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Houston
    (-3); Under



    Monday, October 8

    Washington @ New Orleans

    Game 477-478
    October 8, 2018 @ 8:15 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Washington
    131.666
    New Orleans
    135.996
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New Orleans
    by 4 1/2
    59
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New Orleans
    by 6 1/2
    52 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Washington
    (+6 1/2); Over
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-03-2018 at 06:02 PM.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    73,158
    Credits
    181,706

    Default

    NFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 5



    Thursday
    Colts (1-3) @ Patriots (2-2)
    — McDaniels surprisingly turned down Colts’ HC job last February, to stay as Patriots’ OC. Patriots won/covered both 2018 home games, winning 27-20/38-7; they were held under 6.0 yards/pass attempt in both their losses (6.5/7.8 in W’s). Indy lost its last two games by total of seven points; they’re 2-0 as road dogs this year; since ’15, they’re 12-9-1 as road dogs. Since ’13, New England is 24-11-3 as home faves; they get #1 WR Edelman back, which helps Brady a lot. Patriots won last seven series games, with four of last five wins by 21+. Colts lost last five visits here, by 3-7-35-21-38 points; their last series win was in ‘09. Average total in last eight series games, 62.3. AFC South teams are 5-4 vs spread outside division.

    Sunday
    Ravens (3-1) @ Browns (1-2-1)
    — Cleveland is no longer a doormat; all four of their games were decided by 4 or fewer points. Browns have 13 takeaways, are +6 in turnovers, only seven teams have more TD’s than they do (12)- they’ve had 19 plays of 20+ yards. Cleveland is 5-14-1 in last 20 games as home underdogs, 1-0 this year. Last six times Ravens beat Pittsburgh, they went 4-2 vs spread the next week. Baltimore scored 23+ points in all four games; they were -3 in turnovers in their only loss. Ravens split their two road games this year; since ’13, Ravens are 5-10-1 as road favorites. Baltimore is 18-2 in last 20 series games, winning last three by 14+ points; they won last four visits here, by 2-6-5-17 points.

    Jaguars (3-1) @ Chiefs (4-0)
    — Mahomes is hottest QB in NFL with 14 TD’s, no INTs and 4-0 record, with three road wins; short week for Chiefs after dramatic win in Denver Monday night. KC covered eight of last ten games as home favorite; they won only home game this 38-27 (-6) over the 49ers. Jacksonville has allowed only nine plays of 20+ yards this year, 2nd-lowest total in NFL (Wash, 6); over last 2+ years, Jaguars are 7-4 as road underdogs. Jax played last three games at home; they won only road game 20-15 (-3) at Giants in Week 1. Chiefs won last three series games, by 22-26-5 points; their last loss to Jaguars was in ’09. Jags lost last two visits here, by 22-5 points; their last win here was in ’07.

    Titans (3-1) @ Bills (1-3)
    — Buffalo had 22-yard edge in field position in its only win; they were -4 in turnovers in their three losses, with two TD’s on 35 drives. Tennessee won its last three games, all by three points; underdogs won all four of their games SU. Since ’14, Titans are 2-6-1 as road favorites; they’ve had 3 points at halftime in three of their four games. Tennessee foes are just 17-51 on 3rd down. Buffalo lost its only home game 31-20 to Chargers; they’re 2-5 vs spread in last seven games as home underdogs. Since ’12, Bills are 29-20-2 vs spread coming off a loss. Tennessee won five of last six series games; six of last eight were decided by 3 or fewer points, or in OT. Titans won last three visits here, by 1-1-6 points.

    Giants (1-3) @ Panthers (2-1)
    — Giants’ OC Mike Shula had same job with Carolina last five years, so he knows Cam Newton well, but he needs to get his star WR Beckham going- in 1-3 start, OBIII has 31 catches for 331 yards, but no TD’s. Panthers won/covered their last three post-bye games; they’re 2-0 at home this year, winning by 8-10 points- since ’13, they’re 17-12-2 as home favorites. Since 2011, Giants are 21-18-2 as road underdogs- they split two road games in Texas this year. Under is 3-1 in Giant games this season. Winning side scored 31+ points in last six series games; Carolina is 6-4 in series- Giants are 2-2 here, with last visit in ’13. Carolina won/covered its last three post-bye games.

    Broncos (2-2) @ Jets (1-3)
    — Long travel, short week for Broncos after late-night loss to Chiefs Monday; Denver is 7-10-2 in last 19 games where spread was 3 or less points- they lost only road game this year, 27-14 at Baltimore. Jets were 6-1-1 as home underdogs LY but lost only home game this year 20-12 to Miami; Gang Green’s offense is worst in NFL in red zone (3.64 pts/drive), last in NFL in drives that start 75+ yards from end zone (0.57 ppp)- playing rookie QB comes with growing pains. Jets are 12 for last 38 on 3rd down, have 11 3/outs on last 22 drives. Denver won last three series games, by 4-14-23 points; they’re 4-2 in last six trips here, with last visit in ’14. Last three Bronco games stayed under the total.

    Falcons (1-3) @ Steelers (1-2-1)
    — Two underachieving teams with struggling defenses; Atlanta is first NFL team since ’66 to score 35+ points in consecutive games and lose both games. Falcons are 6-3 vs spread in last nine games as road underdogs, but since ’15, they’re 7-12 vs spread coming off a loss. Pitt allowed 31.7 ppg in its last three games; they’re 0-5 vs spread in last five home games, 3-8 in last 11 games as home favorites- they were shut out in second half of last two games, and won’t get RB Bell back until after their bye. Steelers are 13-2-1 in series, 6-0-1 here, but Falcons’ last two visits here both went OT (34-all tie, 15-9 Pitt win). Atlanta failed to cover its last four games on natural grass.

    Packers (2-1-1) @ Lions (1-3)
    — How will playing on artificial turf affect Rodgers’ bum knee? Green Bay has only five offensive TD’s, 10 FGA’s in last three games; they lost only road game 31-17 at Washington, are 9-17 vs spread in last 26 games on fake grass. Lions are 1-3, with last two losses by total of five points; they’ve got only one takeaway in last three games. Detroit is 4-11-1 in last 16 games as home underdogs (1-0 in ’18). Stafford is good QB, but Lions have only 26 points on last six trips to red zone, which helps explain the close losses. Detroit is 5-4 in last nine series games, sweeping Pack 30-17/35-11 LY. Packers split last eight games in Motor City. Three of four Detroit games went over total.

    Dolphins (3-1) @ Bengals (3-1)
    — What effect did LW’s 38-7 loss in Foxboro have on Dolphins’ psyche? Miami won its first three games, scoring 25 ppg; since ’14, they’re 10-17 as road dogs- in last two games, Fish ran ball total of 32 times for only 97 yards. AFC East underdogs are 2-5 vs spread outside the division. How much does Cincy TE Eifert’s injury slow down Bengals’ high-powered attack? Bengals scored 34-34-37 points in their three wins; they scored 21 in their loss, even with four TO’s. Cincy defense allowed 377+ yards in all four games, all of which went over the total. Miami is 12-3 in last 15 series games, 3-3 in last six; Dolphins split their last four visits here. Dalton led GW TD drive in Atlanta LW, hitting Green for winning score with :07 left.

    Raiders (1-3) @ Chargers (2-2)
    — Will probably be more Raider fans than Charger fans in Carson. Bolts are 3-6 vs spread in their temporary home; why can’t they find a decent kicker (missed two PATs and FG LW)? Chargers’ offense has 25 plays of 20+ yards, most in NFL, Raider defense allowed 24 plays of 20+, T1st in league, so Rivers could have big day. Gruden got first win LY, 45-42 over rookie QB making his first career road start. Raiders allowed 20+ 2nd half points in all four games. Teams split last ten series games, with four of last five decided by 3 or fewer points; Oakland is 2-4 in last six series road games. Bolts swept Oakland 17-16/30-10 LY. All four Charger games went over total.

    Cardinals (0-4) @ 49ers (1-3)
    — First NFL road start for Rosen, who was 15-27/180 passing in his first start LW, a 20-17 loss to Seattle. Redbirds are 0-4; their last two losses were by total of five points. Under Arians, Arizona was 11-4 vs spread in NFC West road games, but they’re 2-8 vs spread in last ten games as road dogs. 49ers scored 30-27-27 in last three games; Beathard was OK in his 6th (1-5) NFL start. Niners beat Detroit 30-27 in their only home game. Arizona won last six series games, winning last three visits here, by 6-12-10 points. NFL-wide, home favorites in divisional games are 3-10 vs spread this season. On 27 drives starting 75+ yards from goal line, Arizona has scored 20 points (0.74 ppp), 2nd-worst mark in NFL.

    Vikings (1-2-1) @ Eagles (2-2)
    — Philly spanked Vikings 38-7 in NFC title game last January; home side won last three series games. Vikings lost eight of last nine visits to Philly, losing 21-10/38-7 in last two trips here- their last win in Philly was in ’10. Minnesota’s OL has already allowed 81 pressures; next-highest in NFL is 55 (Texans); Vikings’ OL coach passed away during summer, and they’ve got injury issues there. Minnesota allowed 29-27-38 points in last three games; they’re 2-5 in last seven games as road underdogs. Eagles struggled in red zone (36 points on 8 drives) in Wentz’ two starts; they’re 2-0 at home, winning by 6-4 points. All six Philly games this season have been decided by six or fewer points.

    Rams (4-0) @ Seahawks (2-2)
    — First road game since Week 1 for LA, which under McVay is 4-2 as road favorites. Rams scored 33+ points in all four games; they’ve scored 15 TD’s on 37 drives, with only three 3/outs. Only six of their 55 plays LW were on 3rd down. Seattle allowed 17-13 points in winning its last two games (+4 in TO’s), but now Thomas (leg) is out for year. Seahawks are 14-51 on 3rd down; their last three games stayed under. Since ’11, Seattle is 7-2 as home underdogs; they’ve gone 3/out 21 times on 49 drives this year, 3rd-most in league. LA won four of last six series games, winning two of last three visits here; Rams had three extra days to prepare, after beating Vikings last Thursday.

    Cowboys (2-2) @ Texans (1-3)
    — Houston got its first win LW in Indy in OT, when Colts went for it on 4th-and-4 on their own 43 in tie game with 0:27 left; Texans lost only home game 27-22 to Giants, they’re 2-4 in last six games as home favorites. Houston’s last two opponents converted 17 of 30 third down plays. Cowboys are 2-0 at home, 0-2 on road, losing 16-8 at Carolina, 24-13 in Seattle; they’ve scored three TD’s on 22 drives on road, scoring 18 points on four drives in red zone. Since ’15, Dallas is 5-8 as road underdogs, 0-2 this year. Cowboys kicked six TD’s, tried nine FG’s; they’ve run ball for 166-153 yards in last two games, but converted only 13-46 on third down- they miss Witten/Bryant. Dallas won last three series games; they split two visits here.

    Monday
    Redskins (2-1) @ Saints (3-1)
    — RB Ingram is back from suspension for the Saints; expect more running from NO’s offense. Saints scored 43-33 points in winning last two games, with 15 plays of 20+ yards. Since ’14, NO is 9-18-1 as home favorites. Redskins allowed only 14.7 ppg in its 2-1 start, holding all three opponents under 5.6 yards/pass attempt; they’re 8-5 vs spread in last 13 games as road underdogs. Washington is 4-2 in last six series games, but lost 29-24/47-14 in last two visits to Bourbon Street. Average total in last five series games: 72.2. Under Gruden, Redskins are 1-2-1 SU in pre-bye games, 1-3 vs spread. NFC East teams are 3-9 vs spread outside their division; NFC South teams are 4-4.

    2018 week-by-week results
    HF HU Totals O/U AFC-NFC
    1) 5-6-1 2-2 8-8 2-2
    2) 4-6 5-1 8-8 1-1
    3) 7-5 3-1 8-8 5-3N
    4) 1-0 x 1-0 x
    T) 17-17-1 10-4 25-24 8-6
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-03-2018 at 06:02 PM.

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    Opening Line Report - Week 5
    Joe Williams

    We have passed the quarter-pole of the National Football League regular season and there are just two teams with unblemished records, the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams. We almost lost the Chiefs from the ranks of the unbeaten on Monday night, but they rallied from 10 points down on the road against the Denver Broncos to not only win, but cover a 3.5-point number, too. The Chiefs are also the only team in the NFL with a perfect 4-0 ATS record through four games.

    Week 5 features sees two more teams on byes, as the Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be on the shelf. The Carolina Panthers and Washington Redskins are also back from their Week 4 rest.

    Thursday, Oct. 4

    Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-10, 51.5)


    QB Andrew Luck missed the entire 2017 season due to his shoulder injury, but he finally looks like he is back to his pre-injury form. He dropped a career-high 464 yards on the Texans in an overtime loss at home, but he also lost WR T.Y. Hilton to a hamstring injury. Head coach Frank Reich said it doesn't look good that Hilton will be ready for the quick turnaround in Foxboro. It's a bit concerning since the Colts have struggled in the run game, now will be missing their biggest receiving weapon for Luck.

    The Pats dropped the Dolphins from the ranks of the unbeaten with an emphatic win on Sunday. Most shops have the Pats favored by 10 for this one, but Treasure Island had New England listed at -9.5. The Patriots have covered each of their two home games and the 'under' is 2-0 at Gillette Stadium this season.


    Sunday, Oct. 7

    Baltimore Ravens (-3, 47.5) at Cleveland Browns


    The Ravens have won and covered five consecutive meetings in this series, and the 'under' has cashed in three in a row. Cleveland hasn't had a lot of success against most teams, but they have especially struggled against Baltimore. The last win on home turf against the Ravens came on Nov. 3, 2013. The 'over' is 4-1 in the past five meetings on the shores of Lake Erie. The Westgate Superbook opened the Ravens are -1.5 and they're already up to -3 in less than 24 hours, likely aided by Baltimore's impressive showing on Sunday night in Pittsburgh.

    Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 51.5)

    Perhaps the two best teams in the AFC square off in Kansas City when the Jaguars meet the Chiefs at Arrowhead. It will be interesting to see how Jacksonville's lockdown defense handles QB Patrick Mahomes and the high-octane Kansas City offense. Offshore book BetOnline.ag opened this one at 52.5, and it was quickly down to 51.5. There is a large dispartity in the total line, however, as Westgate had the number at 47.5 on Monday afternoon, up to 48.5 by kickoff on Monday.

    Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 39) at Buffalo Bills

    The Titans picked up a big win against the defending Super Bowl champs last week, following up a nice road win against the Jags. The Bills, on the other hand, were blanked in Green Bay after their shocking win in Minnesota the previous week. Most shops have the Titans installed as 3.5-point favorites, although you can find a bargain at the Golden Nugget and Westgate at -3.

    New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (-7, 44.5)

    The Panthers are coming off a bye, and they're 4-1 ATS in the past five coming back from their off week. If you're not feeling the flat seven, you can still catch the Cats -6.5 at Treasure Island as well as Southpoint.

    Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 57.5)

    The Falcons allowed 79 points over their past two games at home, both losses, including one against the AFC North rivals of the Steelers. The Steelers have also been pretty shabby on defense, so it's no surprise this game features the highest total on the board. Atlanta has allowed 30.5 points per game (PPG), while Pittsburgh has yielded 29.0 PPG to date.

    Green Bay Packers (-1.5, 50.5) at Detroit Lions

    The 'over' has cashed in five straight meetings in this NFC North rivalry, including each of the past three battles at Ford Field. Green Bay was swept in this series last season, but they also spent a majority of 2017 without QB Aaron Rodgers. Despite last season's sweep, the books have the Pack listed as slight favorites. If you like Green, TI has them listed at just -1.

    Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 50.5)

    The Dolphins were dumped by the Patriots in Foxboro by a 38-7 score, splashing cold water on their 3-0 SU/ATS start. Now, they'll meet a Cincinnati club which has posted 34 or more points in three of their four outings, with the 'over' hitting in all four contests. You can still catch this one at a flat 50 points at the Golden Nugget as well as Southpoint.

    Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5, 53.5)

    The Raiders will battle the Chargers in Carson. In the past six home games, the Bolts are 4-2 SU, while going 9-4 SU in their past 13 home contests against the Silver and Black. However, the Chargers are just 2-7 ATS in their past nine games at home against the Raiders. The 'under' is also 10-2-1 in the past 13 home games against the Raiders, so perhaps the line is rather high. The Strat has the line at 54.0 as of Tuesday early morning.

    Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5, 41)

    The Cards were shuffled to 0-4 SU by the Seahawks, losing a heartbreaker at home. Arizona enters as the only winless team in the league at the quarter-pole, although there is optimism with QB Josh Rosen. The 49ers are down to backup QB C.J. Beathard, as QB Jimmy Garoppolo is done for the season due to a knee injury. Beathard wasn't a total disaster, though, and San Francisco covered in his first start last week against the Chargers.

    The 'under' is 3-1 in the past four home games for the Niners against the Cards, and the total has gone under in six of the previous eight in this series. This is the second-lowest total on the board, with all major Vegas books consistent at 41 points.

    Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 44.5)

    It's a rematch of the NFC Championship Game played Jan. 21, and the Vikings hope it goes a little better. The Vikings were destroyed 38-7 by QB Nick Foles and company. He will be holding a clipboard in this one, while Minnesota's starter in that game, QB Case Keenum, is now playing his trade in Denver. Most books have held steady at -3, while Southpoint has Philly laying -3.5.

    Los Angeles Rams (-7, 50.5) at Seattle Seahawks

    The Rams won and pushed at a majority of shops last Thursday against Minnesota, and they have had a few extra days to prepare for Seattle. The Seahawks had major drama with safety Earl Thomas breaking his leg and then showing off his displeasure while leaving the field, saluting the Seattle sideline.

    Seattle has been one of the best teams against the number against divisional foes, hitting at a 56.7 percent clip at 17-13-2 ATS since 2013. The Rams, meanwhile, rank 27th in the NFL in divisional ATS, going 13-18, or 41.9 percent.

    Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (-3.5, 45)

    The Lonestar State battle takes place on Sunday night at NRG Stadium, and the Texans are flying high after Frank Reich gifted them a win in Indy, their first of the season in four tries.

    This one will be interesting, as it's another one of those solid defense vs. high-flying offense matchups. Dallas rans No. 5 in the NFL by allowing just 306.2 total yards per game, while Houston has posted 24.0 PPG through four contests. A majority of the books have the home team listed at three and a hook, but you can find a flat three at Caesars/Harrah's, as well as Treasure Island.


    Monday, Oct. 8

    Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 52.5)


    The Redskins are back from their bye, and rest hasn't done them very much good. They're just 2-8 ATS over their past 10 games following a week off.

    Meanwhile, the Saints have scored 76 points over the past two games and they're averaging 34.3 PPG through four outings. However, New Orleans is 0-2 ATS in two home games, which is likely why they're favored by less than a touchdown after laying 10 in each of their first two games in the Crescent City. You can still catch the Saints at -6 at Treasure Island, while you can grab the 'Skins at +7 at Golden Nugget if you're feeling the road team instead.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-03-2018 at 06:03 PM.

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    GRONK LISTED AS DNP

    Tight end Rob Gronkowski was listed as “did not practice” on New England’s injury report on Monday ahead of its Thursday night matchup where it hosts Indianapolis. Gronk pulled himself from Sunday’s game against Miami with an ankle injury and it remains to be seen whether he’ll be able to recover on a short week. Gronk’s absence would obviously be a blow to the Patriots offense but one-way Brady and co. will help deal with the possible loss is with the return of Julian Edelman.

    Brady, for one, is very excited, saying this about Edelman on Monday: “He gets open so quick, I think that's the thing about Julian, his explosiveness in the routes, in and out of breaks. It's very comforting for a quarterback to see a guy get open really early in a route.”

    The Pats looked great offensively in Week 4, but Brady still hasn’t found a receiver he can consistently trust. That will change on Thursday. Expect Brady to look Edelman’s way early and often in a game with a total set at 51.5 and jump on the Over for Edelman’s receptions total when the market opens later in the week.


    HILTON DOUBTFUL

    In sticking with the Thursday nighter, Indianapolis will likely be without receiver T.Y. Hilton after he was forced from Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury. Add in injuries to top tight end Jack Doyle and top running back Marlon Mack and the Colts are going to be severely shorthanded on offense as they head to Foxborough.

    The Colts were fine on Sunday without their top playmakers but that was at home and against a very bad Houston pass defense that ranks 27th in the league, giving up 288 yards per game through the air. New England’s pass defense ranks eighth (226.2 yards per game) and has been especially good at home, giving up 158 yards in Week 1 and 116 yards on Sunday. We’re not optimistic about Indy’s chances on Thursday and we’re taking the Under on its team total.


    FOURNETTE OUT MULTIPLE GAMES

    The injury fallout from Sunday continues as it’s being reported that Jacksonville running back Leonard Fournette will miss multiple games, including a mouth-watering matchup with Kansas City on Sunday. T.J. Yeldon will start in Fournette’s place and Corey Grant will change the pace so we’re staying away from the committee backfield and looking to receiver Keelan Cole for a prop.

    We’ve done well with Cole so far this season, correctly calling his Over 3.5 receptions in Week 3 and then his Under 58.5 receiving yards in Week 4. It seems Cole is the kind of player who is being scripted in and out of weekly game plans. This week, coach Doug Marrone should be looking towards Cole as he game plans without Fournette and against a Chiefs team that ranks dead last in passing defense. We’ll be leaning towards the Over on Cole’s reception total.


    CHARGERS LOSE WHITE

    L.A. Chargers’ linebacker Kyzir White had a knee scope on Monday and is considered week to week. White might not be a household name, but the rookie was playing on 73 percent of defensive snaps and has been solid in pass coverage. The Chargers’ loss is Jared Cook’s gain. The Raiders’ tight end is on fire and is coming off an 8-110-2 performance against the Browns on Sunday. Cook is Derek Carr’s most trusted target and that was clear when the Raiders lined him up as a wideout on third-and-3 late in overtime and threw him a jump ball — which he came down with. The Chargers-Raiders game on Sunday looks to be a shootout with a total set at 53.5 and bettors can expect a lot of balls thrown in Cook’s direction. We’re taking the Over on his reception total.


    COOK STILL NOT HEALTHY

    Minnesota running back Dalvin Cook admitted on Monday that his hamstring still isn’t 100 percent and that fans need to be patient with the Vikings’ run game. This is not what Vikings backers want to hear from their star running back who is coming off a 10-rush, 20-yard performance against the Rams on Thursday night.

    Cook will likely play on Sunday, but we are going to be fading whatever his rushing yards total is as he’s in the worst possible spot for a running back with a trip to Philadelphia. The Eagles have been the best against the run so far this season, giving up just 63.8 rushing yards per game. They gave up just 24 yards on 12 combined carries to Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis on Sunday and 37 yards on 11 combined carries to Jordan Wilkens and Nyheim Hines in Week 3. No one has been able to run on the Eagles yet this season and that’s not likely to change with a hobbled Cook. Take the Under on his rushing total with confidence.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-03-2018 at 01:52 AM.

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    Tech Trends - Week 5
    Bruce Marshall

    Thursday, Oct. 4

    INDIANAPOLIS at NEW ENGLAND (FOX/NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)

    Belichick “under” 12-4 last 16 reg season games, Indy “under” 11-3 last 14 (2-1 TY). Colts have covered first two on road this season.
    Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.


    Sunday, Oct. 7

    BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Ugh! Browns 3-0 vs. line TY, but have lost and failed to cover last five vs. Ravens. Harbaugh 4-1 vs. spread last five in games immediately following Steelers.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Ravens, based on series trends.

    JACKSONVILLE at KANSAS CITY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Chiefs 4-0 SU and vs. line , have now won and covered eight straight in reg season since late 2017. Also “over” 4-1 last five in reg season. Jags 9-4 vs. spread last 11 away and 7-2 last 9 as dog.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs and “over,” based on recent trends.

    TENNESSEE at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Bills 1-3 last four as home dog. Titans 3-7 last ten vs. line away in reg season, but have won and covered last 3 in 2018.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Titans, based on recent trends.

    N.Y. GIANTS at CAROLINA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Eli “under” 9-2 last 11 since mid 2017. Cam has covered first two at home in 2018 after just 5-8 as Charlotte chalk previous two years, and “over” 7-3 last ten reg season.
    Tech Edge: Slight to “under," based on Giants’ “totals” trends.

    DENVER at N.Y. JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Vance Joseph on 2-13-1 spread skid since early 2017. Denver also “under” 8-3 last ten since mid 2017. Jets 6-2-1 last 9 vs. line at MetLife, also “under” 4-2 since late 2017, including 23-0 loss at Denver last December.
    Tech Edge: “Under” and Jets, based on ‘totals” and team trends.

    ATLANTA at PITTSBURGH (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Steel “over” first three TY and five straight since late 2017. Tomlin also just 3-6 last nine as home chalk, but Falcs only 4-7 vs. spread away since LY. Falcs now “over” 2 in a row after “under” 8 straight from late 2017.
    Tech Edge: “Over,” based on recent “totals” trends.

    GREEN BAY at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Pack “over” 27-12 since mid 2016. Pack lost and failed to cover both vs. Lions LY (Rodgers out in each) for first time since Wayne Fontes was coaching Detroit in ‘91. Last five and 6 of last 7 in series “over” as well.
    Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

    MIAMI at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Tannehill 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 vs. line in his last ten starts. Dolphins also on 10-5 “over” run. Cincy 4-1 vs. points last five at Paul Brown and “over” five straight since late 2017.
    Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

    OAKLAND at L.A. CHARGERS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
    Raiders had covered three straight and 7 of 8 at Bolts in SD before LY at StubHub. Underdog team 15-3 last 18 meetings. Series “under” 4-1 last five.
    Tech Edge: “Under” and Raiders, based on “totals” and extended series trends.

    ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
    Cards “under” first four TY and 14-6 since start of 2017. Also 2-7 vs. line last 9 away though has won and covered last two at Levi’s.
    Tech Edge: "Under" based on “totals” trends.

    MINNESOTA at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
    Zimmer no covers last three TY, but 18-9 as reg season dog entering 2018. Pederson 12-5-1 vs. line in reg season at Linc since taking over in 2016.
    Tech Edge: Vikings, based on extended Zimmer dog marks.

    L.A. RAMS at SEATTLE (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
    Rams 3-0-1 vs. line TY, and “over" 13-7 in reg season since McVay arrived LY. Hawks just 3-7 vs. spread last ten reg season at home.
    Tech Edge: Rams and slight to “over,” based on recent team and "totals" trends.

    DALLAS at HOUSTON (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
    Texans 1-9 SU last ten, 2-8 vs. line in those. Though only three of those ten at home. Dallas no covers first two away TY , and “under” 11-2 last 13 since mid 2017.
    Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.


    Monday, Oct. 8

    WASHINGTON at NEW ORLEANS (ESPN, 8:25 p.m. ET)

    Road team has covered all four Saints games to date. Brees “over” 8-4 last 12 as host. Jay Gruden “over” 10-4 last 14 away from FedEx Field.
    Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-03-2018 at 06:04 PM.

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    Ugly Dogs - Week 5

    The entire purpose of the Ugly Dogs is to take a good look at the teams that nobody wants to take. The only way to survive NFL betting is to force yourself to take teams that nobody dare would lay money on. Conventional “wisdom” consistently busts bankrolls in the NFL. It also offers enhanced betting value on the Ugly Dogs.

    After all, if the linemaker is going to attract betting action on teams nobody wants he has to sweeten the pot and offer a better price than what may actually be warranted. Right from the start in Week 5 we have some truly ugly looking dogs. Let’s take a look at those teams that the masses will be avoiding and opposing.

    Indianapolis Colts +10 at New England Patriots

    The Patriots exposed the Miami Dolphins as AFC East pretenders and showed them who is boss in a devastating 38-7 annihilation. Now the meek and sluggish Colts will come calling to Gillette Stadium on Thursday night. Not only are the Colts 1-3 straight up but they are also rebuilding and have little if any supporting cast to go with quarterback Andrew Luck. Nobody wants the Colts in what is expected to be a slaughter. Yet how can the Patriots match their perfect performance from last week? Don’t be surprised if the Colts stay within the big number against a 2-2 New England team that may be feeling too satisfied.

    New York Giants +7 at Carolina Panthers

    Speaking of teams going through a painful rebuild the New York Giants come to mind. They will now be facing a Carolina team that is being touted as a top NFC title contender. Yet as bad as the Giants have looked the Panthers have been rather sluggish themselves with middle of the road rankings for both offense and defense. The Giants defense has been better than expected and could very well be the deciding factor in getting the money.

    Detroit Lions +1.5 vs. Green Bay Packers

    Detroit is coming off a tough 26-24 loss at Dallas that followed their epic Sunday Night home upset of the New England Patriots. Few teams are avoided like the plague more than the Detroit Lions with the betting public. And after Green Bay’s 22-0 home payout over Buffalo the public will be flocking even more to the Packers and Aaron Rodgers than usual. Detroit has already proven their worth as a dangerous home dog with that win over the Patriots. Green Bay will find Detroit’s offense far more talented that the Bills.

    Arizona Cardinals +4.5 at San Francisco 49ers

    Sure, the Arizona Cardinals have been absolutely dreadful so far with an 0-4 record. But the San Francisco 49ers being favored against anyone defies the imagination. The 49ers are not only battered by a rash of injuries but were also overrated after they won their last five meaningless games at the end of last season. Keep in mind that as bad as the Cardinals have been they have come away with the cash in two of their four losses so far in 2018. Meanwhile the 49ers have failed to pay in three out of four chances.

    Cleveland Browns +2.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens

    After the Ravens Sunday Night Football statement making 26-14 win at the Pittsburgh Steelers few gamblers will have the nerve to oppose them in their upcoming game at Cleveland against a Browns team that is always an ugly dog. After a winless season in 2017 the Browns have nowhere to go but up. In fact, Cleveland is showing solid improvement with three payouts in four games and will be catching a Ravens team primed for a letdown spot.

    Buffalo Bills +3.5 vs. Tennessee Titans

    Buffalo was truly awful in their 22-0 loss at Green Bay. But some of that most certainly can be attributed to their 27-6 win at Minnesota as 16.5-point dogs the week prior. Tennessee ranks 28th in the NFL for scoring offense which leaves the door open for the Bills. True, nobody wants to bet money on Buffalo which is the entire point of why they merit legitimate consideration as a home ugly dog.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-03-2018 at 06:06 PM.

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    Teams to Watch - Week 5

    Week 5 of the NFL starts on Thursday night, with the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots going head to head. That game will actually be part of this piece, as we once again look at teams to play and avoid in the coming week. As always, we will be giving you a pair of teams to play, in one form or another, this week, while also delivering two teams that you should probably avoid if you want to keep your bankroll intact.

    Let’s get right to our play and avoid predictions for Week 5 of the 2018 NFL season with all odds, props and futures provided by YouWager.eu.

    Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

    While it is certainly good to see Andrew Luck back under center for the Colts, it’s fair to suggest that he has not yet reached the heights we saw from him before his shoulder injury. Perhaps the Colts brass are easing him back into action, or perhaps they don’t think he has the arm strength to go deep on a regular basis. Whatever the case, the Colts have been struggling and will probably continue to do so on Thursday night.

    The rumors of the demise of the Patriots appear to have been greatly exaggerated, as they pounded the Miami Dolphins in Week 4. Rookie RB Sony Michel is finally fit and ready to go, plus New England gets Julian Edelman back from suspension for this one, which is why I suggest you play the New England Patriots.


    Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs

    With this game, we get one of the best defenses in the league going against one of the most exciting offensive units that the NFL has to offer. It’s also one of the more intriguing match-ups of the week, especially with the Jags offense coming to life in a 31-12 win over the New York Jets. While it would be easy to get carried away with the play of Blake Bortles in that one, let’s remember that it was the Jets that Jacksonville were up against.

    Bortles is going to need to come out and match what Patrick Mahomes does for the Chiefs, which I don’t think he can do. This is why I would avoid the Jacksonville Jaguars.


    Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals

    Heading into Week 4, the Dolphins were one of just 3 unbeaten teams left in the league, but they have now left those ranks after getting soundly beaten by the New England Patriots. Things do not get any easier for them this week, as they will be on the road to face a Cincinnati Bengals team that is currently sitting atop the AFC North with a 3-1 record.

    They have been putting things together quite nicely on the offensive side of the football and are coming off a huge win on the road against the Atlanta Falcons. I think we might be about to see the Dolphins lose back to back games, which is why I will play the Cincinnati Bengals.


    Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans

    The Dallas Cowboys avoided dropping to 1-3 on the season by the skin of their teeth, scoring late to get the win against the Detroit Lions last week. While it was nice to get the win, the Cowboys issues have not been solved by any stretch of the imagination. They also have an injury list that appears to be getting longer with each passing week.

    The Houston Texans broke their goose egg in Week 3 with a win over the Indianapolis Colts, but they too still have some work to do to get back into the playoff picture. I think they can keep the good times rolling in Week 5, which is why I will avoid the Dallas Cowboys.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-03-2018 at 06:07 PM.

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    TRYING OUR LUCK (AGAIN) WITH BUCK

    Last week, we suggested betting on Ravens running back Javorious “Buck” Allen to score a touchdown at any time, mostly because of the praise he received from coach Jim Harbaugh and the extra touches he was getting near the goal line. That bet didn’t cash as Alex Collins got the only rushing touchdown for the Ravens in Week 4. But it’s important to analyze exactly what happened with the rushing splits between the two running backs. Collins scored on the first red-zone carry of the night and then on the second he fumbled, and it was recovered by Pittsburgh. From that point on, Allen received all four of the red-zone carries. Bettors should expect Allen to get the majority of red-zone carries against Cleveland this week and we’re again backing him to score a touchdown at any time.


    FEWER SNAPS FOR CALLAWAY?

    If you only look at the numbers, it would appear a breakout is due for Cleveland rookie receiver Antonio Callaway as he posted nine targets and a team-high 138 air yards in Week 4. But Callaway has made a lot of mistakes and coach Hue Jackson had this to say about those miscues on Tuesday: “Maybe not playing as many plays as he plays in a game will help him get to step back, look, take a blow, come back, and do it again."

    Callaway has all the talent in the world but so far has only been able to haul in 10-of-24 targets and doesn’t have more than four catches in a game yet this season. This weekend, it sounds like he’ll be playing fewer snaps and, when he does get on the field, it’ll be against a Ravens squad ranked fourth in passing defense. We’re taking the Under 50.5 on his receiving yards total.


    NOT READY FOR GORDON

    Patriots fans are giddy over the prospect of having Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, and Rob Gronkowski running routes together for the rest of the season. If they can stay healthy (and out of trouble), it could be one of the more potent receiving groups in the league, but we’re not ready to put money behind Gordon just yet. He played just 22 snaps (18%) in Week 4 and had one catch for 17 yards on two targets. He’s just not up to speed with the offense yet and, with the Pats being on a short week, that’s not likely to change on Thursday night. We’re taking the Under 52.5 on his receiving yards total.


    HENRY TO CASH IN

    The Buffalo Bills looked a lot more like the Buffalo Bills in Week 4, getting shut out 22-0 at Green Bay. Fading the Bills is going to pay off more often than not as we don’t expect many wins like the one in Minnesota in Week 3. Buffalo hosts Tennessee this week and, although we don’t love betting on the Titans offense, we do like Derrick Henry to hit pay dirt.

    The Bills don’t have a terrible run defense (ranked 11th at 95.2 yards against per game) but they have given up five rushing touchdowns, putting them only behind the Cardinals and the Falcons for most in the league. Henry, while posting just 40.8 yards on 13.5 carries per game, does have nine red-zone carries on the season, including seven in the past two weeks. To put that into perspective, Dion Lewis has zero red-zone carries in the last two weeks and Marcus Mariota has just one. Henry hasn’t found the end zone yet this season but that is bound to change this week and we’re backing him to score at any time.


    BIG DAY COMING FOR BORTLES

    As mentioned yesterday, Leonard Fournette is likely to miss multiple games, including this weekend’s tasty matchup with Kansas City. Because of this, we suggested taking the Over 4.5 on Keelan Cole’s reception total and we’re going to stack that with a Blake Bortles bet.

    In the five games that Jacksonville has played without Fournette, dating back to last season, Bortles has attempted 34.4 pass attempts per game. Bortles passed for 376 yards without Fournette in Week 2 and then 388 yards last week in a game that Fournette was forced out of early with an injury. This week, the Jags travel to Kansas City. Yes, Jacksonville has the league’s best defense, but Kansas City will score, and Bortles is going to be forced to throw a lot if the Jags want to keep pace. The Chiefs are giving up 328.5 passing yards per game and we expect Bortles to get near that mark on Sunday. We’re taking the Over 287.5 on his passing yards total.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-03-2018 at 06:09 PM.

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    Some interesting NFL trends for the week:

    Arizona is 2-8 in its last ten games as road underdogs.

    Denver is 2-13-1 vs spread in its last 16 games.

    Detroit covered six of its last eight games.

    Cleveland is 4-12 in its last 16 games as home underdogs.

    Ravens are 13-4 vs spread in their last 17 divisional games.

    Green Bay is 10-5 in its last 15 games as divisional road favorites.

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    NFL's Top ATS Teams Heading Into Week 5:

    1. Chiefs 4-0 ATS
    t2. Rams 3-1 ATS
    t2. Ravens 3-1 ATS
    t2. Bears 3-1 ATS
    t2. Bengals 3-1 ATS
    t2. Jaguars 3-1 ATS
    t2. Dolphins 3-1 ATS
    t2. Titans 3-1 ATS
    t2. Browns 3-1 ATS
    t2. Lions 3-1 ATS


    NFL's Worst ATS Teams Heading Into Week 5:

    32. Broncos 0-3-1 ATS
    t22. 49ers 1-3 ATS
    t22. Steelers 1-3 ATS
    t22. Jets 1-3 ATS
    t22. Giants 1-3 ATS
    t22. Texans 1-3 ATS
    t22. Bills 1-3 ATS
    t22. Falcons 1-3 ATS
    t22. Eagles 1-3 ATS
    t22. Chargers 1-3 ATS
    t22. Cowboys 1-3 ATS


    NFL's Top OVER Teams Heading Into Week 5:

    t1. Bengals 4-0
    t1. Chargers 4-0
    t1. Buccaneers 4-0
    t4. Falcons 3-1
    t4. Lions 3-1
    t4. Packers 3-1
    t4. Chiefs 3-1
    t4. Steelers 3-1
    t4. 49ers 3-1


    NFL's Top UNDER Teams Heading Into Week 5:

    1. Cardinals 4-0
    t2. Cowboys 3-1
    t2. Broncos 3-1
    t2. Patriots 3-1
    t2. Giants 3-1
    t2. Seahawks 3-1
    7. Redskins 2-1
    t8. 14 teams tied at 2-2
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-03-2018 at 06:11 PM.

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