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Thread: CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 17 (Fri., Oct. 5 - Mon., Oct. 8)

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    Default CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 17 (Fri., Oct. 5 - Mon., Oct. 8)

    Trends and Indexes

    Friday, October 5 - Monday, October 8

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    CFL Betting Notes - Week 17
    David Schwab

    The final weekend of CFL games in the month of September tipped things off on Friday night with Calgary rolling over Toronto 38-16 to easily cover the 13-point spread at home. The Stampeders officially clinched a playoff spot with that win.

    Saturday’s action got underway with the Hamilton pasting British Columbia 40-10 as a 6 ½-point home favorite to even this home-and-home series at one game apiece. Later that night, Winnipeg made a statement in the West Division playoff race with an impressive 30-3 victory against Edmonton as a 5 ½-point underdog on the road.

    Week 16 in the CFL carried over to Sunday with Saskatchewan slipping past Montreal 34-29, but failing to cover as a 6 ½-point road favorite.

    Friday, Oct. 5

    Winnipeg Blue Bombers (7-7 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) at Ottawa RedBlacks (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

    Point-spread: Ottawa -1
    Total: 52 ½

    Game Overview

    The Blue Bombers have won their last two games both straight-up and against the spread to move into a tie for third in the West standings. The total has stayed UNDER in both contests after going OVER in their previous four games. They have benefitted from much better play on the defensive side of the ball the last two games. During its previous four-game losing streak, Winnipeg had allowed at least 31 points in each of the four losses.

    Ottawa is a game and half ahead of Hamilton in the East coming off last week’s bye. It brings a modest two-game winning streak (SU and ATS) into Friday’s inter-division clash and the total has stayed UNDER in four of the RedBlacks’ last six games. They are 2-4 ATS at home this season and 2-4 ATS in six previous games closing as favorites. Trevor Harris is fourth in the CFL in total passing yards and he has tossed 14 touchdowns. Despite the bye, he is still listed as questionable on the latest injury report.

    Betting Trends

    -- Winnipeg has covered ATS in eight of its last 12 games against the RedBlacks, but it lost the first meeting this season 44-21 as a 6 ½-point home favorite. The total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings in Ottawa.


    Saturday, Oct. 6

    Toronto Argonauts (3-10 SU, 5-8 ATS) at British Columbia Lions (6-7 AU, 8-5 ATS)

    Point-spread: BC -7
    Total: 51 ½

    Game Overview

    Toronto’s straight-up losing streak reached five games with Friday night’s loss. The defending Grey Cup Champions continue to play their way out of this season’s playoffs. They have only covered the spread once in this current slide and the total has gone OVER the closing line in their last four games with a points-allowed average of 36.5 points in those four losses. Toronto gave up 24 unanswered second-half points against Calgary after trailing by just four points at the half.

    The Lions recent three-game winning streak (SU and ATS) came to an end with Saturday’s loss. That total ended as a PUSH on a closing line of 50 after staying UNDER in five of their previous seven games. BC lost to Toronto 24-23 in August with Travis Lulay at quarterback. It closed as a three-point road favorite with the total staying UNDER 50 ½ points. Jonathan Jennings and Cody Fajardo split time at quarterback in Saturday’s loss with a combined 215 yards passing, one touchdown throw and three interceptions.

    Betting Trends

    -- Toronto has won four of its last five road games against the Lions SU and it has a 5-1 edge ATS in its last six trips to BC. The total has stayed UNDER in five of the last six meetings overall.


    Monday, Oct. 8

    Calgary Stampeders (11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS) at Montreal Alouettes (3-11 SU, 7-7 ATS)

    Point-spread: Calgary -12
    Total: 50 ½

    Game Overview

    The Stampeders have had a few hiccups along the way, but they have once again positioned themselves for a deep run at this year’s Grey Cup title. This will be the 14th-straight season they advanced to the playoffs, but the memory of two-straight losses in the title game as favorites is still fresh in their mind. Calgary quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell completed 20 of his 34 passing attempts against Toronto on Friday night for 307 yards and two scores. He has now tossed 29 touchdowns on the year.

    Give credit to the Alouettes for covering against one of the hottest teams in the CFL in the loss to Saskatchewan, but you get the feeling that Montreal fans are counting the days for this season to be over. Johnny Manziel tossed a pair of touchdowns in Sunday’s loss against no interceptions, but he ended the day with just 138 yards passing to go with a team-high 45 yards running the ball.

    Betting Trends

    -- Montreal has been able to cover in seven of its last eight games against Calgary including a 25-8 loss in July as a heavy 19 ½-point road underdog. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last nine meetings.

    Edmonton Eskimos (7-7 SU, 6-8 ATS) at Saskatchewan Roughriders (9-5 SU, 7-7 ATS)
    Point-spread: Saskatchewan -4
    Total: 52 ½

    Game Overview

    Behind Mike Reilly as the CFL’s most prolific passer and CJ Gable as the third leading rusher in the league, the Eskimos had been able to average 28.3 points through the first 13 games of the season. This is what made the recent three-point effort against Winnipeg so stunning at this point of the season. It never helps when you turn the ball over seven times resulting in 20 points for the opposing team.

    Saskatchewan has a golden opportunity to take a firm grip on the second spot in the West Division playoffs while posting its seventh SU win in its last eight games if it can get past Edmonton on Monday. The Roughriders have failed to cover in their last three outings. The total has gone OVER in their last five games and they have scored at least 30 points in four of those contests.

    Betting Trends

    -- Edmonton has a 4-2 edge against its West Division rivals in its last six trips to Saskatchewan and it has gone 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games against the Roughriders. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings in Saskatchewan.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-02-2018 at 12:33 AM.

  3. #3
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    CFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 17


    Friday, October 5

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    WINNIPEG (7 - 7) at OTTAWA (8 - 5) - 10/5/2018, 7:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OTTAWA is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1996.
    WINNIPEG is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    WINNIPEG is 3-2 against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
    WINNIPEG is 3-2 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Saturday, October 6

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    TORONTO (3 - 10) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (6 - 7) - 10/6/2018, 7:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TORONTO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TORONTO is 3-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
    TORONTO is 3-2 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Monday, October 8

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    CALGARY (11 - 2) at MONTREAL (3 - 11) - 10/8/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MONTREAL is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    MONTREAL is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    MONTREAL is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
    MONTREAL is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    MONTREAL is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
    MONTREAL is 13-30 ATS (-20.0 Units) in home games in October games since 1996.
    MONTREAL is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in home games revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MONTREAL is 4-1 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
    CALGARY is 3-2 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    EDMONTON (7 - 7) at SASKATCHEWAN (9 - 5) - 10/8/2018, 4:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    SASKATCHEWAN is 126-94 ATS (+22.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
    EDMONTON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
    SASKATCHEWAN is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in home games in October games since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SASKATCHEWAN is 4-2 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
    EDMONTON is 4-2 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CFL

    Week 17


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    Trend Report
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    Friday, October 5

    Winnipeg Blue Bombers
    Winnipeg is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    Winnipeg is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games
    Winnipeg is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
    Winnipeg is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Winnipeg is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 17 of Winnipeg's last 23 games on the road
    Winnipeg is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Ottawa
    The total has gone OVER in 11 of Winnipeg's last 16 games when playing Ottawa
    Winnipeg is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
    Winnipeg is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
    Ottawa RedBlacks
    Ottawa is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games
    Ottawa is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Ottawa is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games at home
    Ottawa is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Winnipeg
    The total has gone OVER in 11 of Ottawa's last 16 games when playing Winnipeg
    Ottawa is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
    Ottawa is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games when playing at home against Winnipeg




    Saturday, October 6

    Toronto Argonauts
    Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games
    Toronto is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 9 games on the road
    Toronto is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing British Columbia
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing British Columbia
    Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
    Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
    Toronto is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
    British Columbia Lions
    British Columbia is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
    British Columbia is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of British Columbia's last 6 games
    British Columbia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    British Columbia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of British Columbia's last 6 games at home
    British Columbia is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing Toronto
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of British Columbia's last 6 games when playing Toronto
    British Columbia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
    British Columbia is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Toronto
    British Columbia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto



    Monday, October 8

    Calgary Stampeders
    Calgary is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Calgary's last 6 games
    Calgary is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Calgary is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games on the road
    Calgary is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Montreal
    Calgary is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Montreal
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Calgary's last 9 games when playing Montreal
    Calgary is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Montreal
    Calgary is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Montreal
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games when playing on the road against Montreal
    Montreal Alouettes
    Montreal is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    Montreal is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games
    Montreal is 3-22 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games
    Montreal is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games at home
    Montreal is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Montreal's last 9 games at home
    Montreal is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Calgary
    Montreal is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Calgary
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Montreal's last 9 games when playing Calgary
    Montreal is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Calgary
    Montreal is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Calgary
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing at home against Calgary


    Edmonton Eskimos
    Edmonton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games
    Edmonton is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
    Edmonton is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Edmonton's last 6 games on the road
    Edmonton is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Saskatchewan
    Edmonton is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Saskatchewan
    Edmonton is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Saskatchewan
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Edmonton's last 12 games when playing Saskatchewan
    Edmonton is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
    Edmonton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
    Edmonton is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
    Saskatchewan Roughriders
    Saskatchewan is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games at home
    Saskatchewan is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
    Saskatchewan is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Edmonton
    Saskatchewan is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Edmonton
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Saskatchewan's last 12 games when playing Edmonton
    Saskatchewan is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Edmonton
    Saskatchewan is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games when playing at home against Edmonton
    Saskatchewan is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Edmonton
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games when playing at home against Edmonton


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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-02-2018 at 12:33 AM.

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    CFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 17


    Winnipeg (7-7) @ Ottawa (8-5) (-1, 52.5)
    — Blue Bombers won three of last four series games, but they lost 44-21 at home to Ottawa in August; road team won five of last six. Bombers won their last two visits here, 33-20/33-30; over is 3-1 in last four series games. In its last 13 games, Winnipeg is 7-0 when it scores 29+ points, 0-6 when it scores less- they’re 3-4 on road. Over is 6-3 in last nine Bomber games. RedBlacks held its last six opponents to 26 or less; they won last two games, are 4-2 at home this season. Three of their last four games stayed under.

    Toronto (3-10) @ BC Lions (6-7) (-7, 51.5)
    — Road team won eight of last nine series games; Argos won last four visits here (three by 11+ points), and also beat Lions 24-23 (+3) at home back in August. Under is 5-1 in last six series games. Toronto lost its last five games (1-4 vs spread); they’re 1-3 as road underdogs, but one cover was back in July. Argos’ last four games went over total. Lions won three of last four games but got smoked by Hamilton LW; BC is 5-1 SU at home, 2-1 as home favorites.

    Calgary (11-2) (-12.5, 50.5) @ Montreal (3-11)
    — Home side won last ten series games; Calgary lost last four visits here, all as road favorites (three by 7+ points)- they beat Alouettes 25-8 at home July 21. Under is 7-2 in last nine series games. Stampeders are 11-2 but they lost two of last three road games; they’re 4-1 as road favorites. Over is 5-1 in their last six games. Als lost their last three games, by 18-17-5 points; they’re 1-6 at home, 2-5 as home underdogs. Four of their last five games stayed under.

    Edmonton (7-7) @ Saskatchewan (9-5) (-4, 52.5)
    - Eskimos won seven of last nine series games, beating Roughriders 26-19 back in August; Edmonton won two of its last three trips to Regina. Under is 3-1 in last four series games. Eskimos lost four of last five games, losing 28-15/30-3 last two weeks; Edmonton lost its last four road games, but is 2-0 as a road underdog this season. Saskatchewan won six of its last seven games after a 3-4 start; they’re 1-4 vs spread as favorites this year. Riders’ last four games were all decided by five or fewer points.

    Through week 16: Favorites 26-35; Under 34-24-2
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-05-2018 at 11:26 AM.

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    CFL
    Dunkel

    Week 17


    Friday, October 5

    Winnipeg @ Ottawa

    Game 651-652
    October 5, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Winnipeg
    111.743
    Ottawa
    120.547
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Ottawa
    by 9
    46
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Ottawa
    by 1
    51 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Ottawa
    (-1); Under



    Saturday, October 6

    Toronto @ BC Lions

    Game 653-654
    October 6, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Toronto
    99.367
    BC Lions
    115.115
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    BC Lions
    by 16
    52
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    BC Lions
    by 7
    51
    Dunkel Pick:
    BC Lions
    (-7); Over



    Monday, October 8

    Calgary @ Montreal

    Game 655-656
    October 8, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Calgary
    115.574
    Montreal
    107.749
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Calgary
    by 8
    52
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Calgary
    by 14
    50 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Montreal
    (+14); Over

    Edmonton @ Saskatchewan


    Game 657-658
    October 8, 2018 @ 4:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Edmonton
    108.850
    Saskatchewan
    111.02
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Saskatchewan
    by 2
    59
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Saskatchewan
    by 4
    52 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Edmonton
    (+4); Over
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-05-2018 at 11:27 AM.

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