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Thread: Monday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/1

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    Default Monday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/1

    Trends and Indexes

    Monday, October 1

    Good Luck on day #274 of 2018!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

    Top 6 picks in Week 4 of Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)

    1) Raiders -2.5 (1,110)- W

    2) Bengals +5 (952)- W

    3) Broncos +5 (863)

    4) Giants +3.5 (846)- L

    5) Colts -1 (813)- L

    6) Seahawks -3 (740)- T

    Season record: 11-10-2

    **********

    Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

    Bengals 37, Falcons 36— Atlanta is first team since ’66 Giants to score 35+ points two weeks in a row, and lose both games (Giants lost 72-41 @ Washington, 49-40 @ Cleveland in consecutive games, going 1-12-1 after a 6-0 preseason). Falcons’ defense is really bad.

    Cincy scored on a 13-yard pass to AJ Green with 0:07 left for the win, ending a 16-play, 75-yard drive. Bengals lost TE Eifert in 3rd quarter, with what looked like a broken ankle.

    Texans 37, Colts 34— Coaching Malpractice 101- With 0:27 left in OT, Houston had 4th and 4 on its own 43-yard line. You punt the ball and take the tie, right? It is still early in the season.

    Colts went for it, threw an incomplete pass, and three plays later, Houston kicked field goal to win the game. This is Grade A stupidity; in a 16-game season, you can’t give a game away!!!! There is a proper time to be conservative- this was it.

    Bright spot for Indy was Andrew Luck, who led a 9-play, 85-yard drive that tied game 31-all with 0:45 left in regulation. Luck passed for 464 yards; Colts shouldn’t have lost this game.

    Titans 26, Eagles 23 OT— Tennessee scored on a 10-yard pass with 0:05 left in OT to pull out a game they trailed 17-3 early in third quarter. Titans are 3-1, with three consecutive wins, all by three points.

    Eagles in red zone; four drives, one TD, three FG’s
    Titans in red zone: four drives, three TD’s, one FG

    Why did the NFL shorten overtimes to 10:00? OT football is fun, ties not so much.

    Cowboys 26, Lions 24— Dallas drove 55 yards in nine plays and kicked winning FG at gun; they are 2-0 at home, 0-2 on road. Dallas led 20-10 after third quarter, but Lions scored two TD’s in 4th quarter. Rookie kicker Maher kicked four FG’s for the Cowboys.

    Dallas had five plays of 20+ yards, more than they had (4) in first three games combined.

    Patriots 38, Dolphins 7— Miami coach Adam Gase has some serious coaching to do this week, after his 3-0 team came north and got their butts kicked very soundly. Dolphins have now lost ten games in a row in Foxboro. Patriots are 25-11 vs spread coming off a loss.

    Tom Brady tied an NFL record by throwing a TD pass to his 70th different receiver (Cordarrelle Patterson). Check the quiz on this site if you know who the other guy is.

    Packers 22, Bills 0— Total yardage was 423-145, which sums it up; sometimes when play a rookie QB on the road, bad things happen. Hey, Jared Goff was 0-7 as a starter two years ago, and he’s doing pretty well now. Since 2008. Bills are 22-39-2 vs spread coming off a win.

    One thing about Green Bay; Aaron Rodgers obviously has an injured knee, but in last 5:00 of this game, Rodgers was in game, throwing ball and scrambling. Why? Nothing good can come from that— thats where the coach has to step in and either run the ball on every play or sub Rodgers out for the backup.

    Jaguars 31, Jets 12— Total yardage was 503-178; Jaguars averaged 9.4 yards per pass play. I mean, Jacksonville was -3 in turnovers, still won by three TD’s. That doesn’t happen much.

    Pains me to type this, but New England outscored the rest of the AFC East (Miami, Jets, Bills) Sunday, 38-19.

    Bears 48, Buccaneers 10— Ryan Fitzpatrick era came to a crushing end; Bucs were down 38-3 at the half and Jameis Winston played the whole second half. Chicago averaged 12.7 yards per pass attempt; when was last time they did THAT? Bears are already +6 in turnover margin.

    Mitchell Trubisky is first Bears’ QB to throw 5+ TD’s in a game since Johnny Lujack threw six on December 11, 1949, against the Chicago Cardinals at Wrigley Field.

    Seahawks 20, Cardinals 17— In a game in a dome where both teams missed two FG’s, Seattle K Janikowski nailed a 52-yarder at the gun to even Seattle’s record at 2-2, while Arizona drops to 0-4, losing Josh Rosen’s first NFL start. Not often a road team wins while going 0-10 on 3rd down conversions; Seattle ran ball for 171 yards, had 9-yard advantage in field position. Total yardage was 331-263, Seahawks.

    Home side is now 0-7-1 in last eight series games; Seattle is 5-0-1 in last six visits here; Arizona is 12-6-1 in last 19 games as home underdogs.

    Raiders 45, Browns 42 OT— Gruden gets his first win in decade in game his team trailed 28-14 in 3rd quarter; Oakland tied game with 0:30 left in regulation, won it on 29-yard FG in OT.

    Browns aren’t a joke anymore; Mayfield threw for 295 yards in his first NFL start, but Cleveland turned ball over four times (-2)- they’ve had a very interesting month, with two brutal losses and a tie, wrapped around a win over the Jets.

    Saints 33, Giants 18— New Orleans was in red zone four times in 2nd quarter, kicked four FG’s, leaving door open for Giants, but Saints scored TDs on both 2nd half drives and had 389-299 edge in yardage for game, holding Beckham to 7 catches for 60 yards.

    Saints wore throwback uniforms, the kind Charlton Heston wore in the 1969 movie Number One, when he played an aging Saints’ QB. I’ve tried to find the movie to watch it, but have seen on the Interweb that Heston didn’t like the movie and tried his best to squelch its distribution- he broke a rib filming the football scenes.

    Chargers 29, 49ers 27— Think about this, the 49ers were -1 in turnovers, lost field position by 19 yards (an awful lot), scored only 13 points on four red zone drives, and only lost by two points!!!

    49ers scored a defensive TD; yardage was 368-364, so they hung in with backup QB Beathard as a 10-point underdog, averaging 7.6 yards/pass attempt- thats bad news for the Chargers. LA is now 2-8 vs spread last ten times they laid double digits. Over is 4-0 in Charger games this year.

    Ravens 26, Ravens 14— Baltimore led 14-0 early, fumbled on goal line when it looked like it would be 21-0, then Steelers tied game in 2nd quarter, before Ravens outscored them 12-0 in 2nd half, with Tucker booting four FG’s, second week in row Steelers didn’t score in 2nd half.

    Ravens are 8-2-1 vs spread in last 11 divisional road games; they outgained Steelers 451-284, had 16-yard edge in field position, were 8-17 on third down (Steelers were 2-12). When was last time Steelers had a game where they ran ball 11 times for 19 yards?

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    MLB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Monday, October 1


    National League
    Winners of these two games move on to next round of playoffs; losers meet Tuesday to play the NL Wild Card game.

    No one gets eliminated today.


    Brewers (95-67) @ Cubs (95-67)
    Milwaukee hasn’t named a starter for this game; bullpen game? Team in his starts: road
    5-inning record: Allowed run in 1st inning:

    Quintana is 0-2, 5.40 in his last three starts; under is 8-6-1 in his last 15 starts. He is 4-1, 2.17 in six starts vs Milwaukee this year. Team in his starts: 18-13, 10-4 home
    5-inning record: 14-13-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 8-31

    Brewers are 8-11 vs Chicago this year, but 7-3 in last 10 meetings; they’re 3-6 in Wrigley Field this season. Milwaukee is 22-7 in its last 29 games, 11-3 in its last 14 road games. Cubs won four of their last five games, all at home.

    Milwaukee is in playoffs for first time since 2011; Cubs are in playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won the World Series two years ago.

    Rockies (91-71) @ Dodgers (91-71)
    Marquez is 3-1, 2.33 in his last four starts (over 3-1). He is 2-o, 2.57 in three starts vs LA this season. Team in his starts: 18-13, 9-6 road
    5-inning record: 12-14-5 Allowed run in 1st inning: 16-31

    Buehler is 1-0, 1.80 in his last three starts; under is 8-2 in his last ten. He is 0-1, 3.19 in five starts vs Colorado this year. Team in his starts: 13-9, 7-4 home
    5-inning record: 12-6-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-22

    Colorado won nine of its last ten games, including last three on road. Dodgers are 9-3 in their last 12 games, 5-1 in last six at home. Dodgers are 12-7 vs Colorado this season, 6-3 in Chavez Ravine.

    Rockies lost Wild Card game LY, their first playoff appearance since ’09-they’re trying for first-ever NL West title. Los Angeles is in playoffs for 6th year in a row; they lost World Series in seven games LY, and haven’t won a World Series since 1988.

    ______________________________

    Teams’ records in first five innings:
    Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/18
    Ariz 38-28-12……35-25-13……..73-53
    Atl 32-30-13…..35-31-10………67-61
    Cubs 31-32-14……33-31-11…….64-63
    Reds 25-45-6……29-34-11….…54-79
    Colo 35-29-15……37-26-11……71-55
    LA 40-28-8…….34-29-16……74-57
    Mia 25-38-10…..32-31-15…….57-69
    Milw 31-34-10…..39-30-8…….70-64
    Mets 36-33-10……28-28-16…..64-61
    Philly 27-30-16…..37-28-11……64-58
    Pitt 34-31-9……34-28-14……..68-59
    StL 38-26-13……32-35-8………70-61
    SD 23-42-12……27-38-9…….50-80
    SF 30-33-15…..31-27-16……61-60
    Wash 34-31-13..…32-31-11……66-62

    Orioles 19-45-12……24-41-12……43-86
    Boston 37-28-14……47-20-7……..84-48
    W Sox 25-43-8…..…24-40-11……49-83
    Clev 30-30-14……46-21-10……..76-51
    Det 27-38-10…..…32-34-15.……59-72
    Astros 41-20-15……41-21-15…….82-41
    KC 23-41-10…….31-36-12…..53-77
    Angels 32-30-15……31-35-9……63-65
    Twins 25-42-13……34-32-11…..59-74
    NYY 34-24-15……44-25-8………78-48
    A’s 27-34-12……36-28-14…..63-62
    Sea 36-33-11……32-26-17…….68-57
    TB 35-28-13……38-26-10……72-53
    Texas 25-40-9…..28-41-8…….53-81
    Toronto 21-44-12…24-34-16……45-78

    %age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total- 9/18)
    Ariz 32-77…….28-74…..…60
    Atl 23-74……31-77………54
    Cubs 15-76……..23-72……..38
    Reds 20-78……..18-76……..38
    Colo 23-78…….29-74.…….52
    LA 26-75……..29-78..…..55
    Miami 14-73……..21-77…….35
    Milw 27-74…..…30-79…….57
    Mets 28-76……..22-75……50
    Philly 18-73……..23-77…..41
    Pitt 16-74……..21-78…….37
    StL 26-76……..23-75…….49
    SD 20-78……..21-74…….41
    SF 16-77………21-76..…..37
    Wash 28-78……..22-74……50

    Orioles 21-76……..23-76……..44
    Boston 19-76……29-74………47
    White Sox 20-74……21-75…….41
    Clev 20-73…….31-76…….51
    Detroit 26-75……..21-78….…47
    Astros 21-75…..…18-76………39
    KC 16-74..…….26-77…….42
    Angels 20-75…..….19-75…….39
    Twins 17-77………15-74…….32
    NYY 18-74……..31-76………49
    A’s 18-77…..…..23-76…….41
    Seattle 29-78………23-75…….52
    TB 23-75..……24-73…….47
    Texas 11-73……20-76…….…31
    Toronto 18-77………16-74….….34

    Interleague play- 2018
    NL @ AL– 78-72 NL, favorites -$593
    AL @ NL– 75-64 NL, favorites +$175
    Total: 153-136 NL, favorites -$418
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-01-2018 at 11:53 AM.

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    MLB

    Monday, October 1


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Milwaukee Brewers
    Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 7 games
    Milwaukee is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
    Milwaukee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 6 games on the road
    Milwaukee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs
    Milwaukee is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Chi Cubs
    The total has gone UNDER in 19 of Milwaukee's last 24 games when playing Chi Cubs
    Milwaukee is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
    Milwaukee is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 10 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
    Chicago Cubs
    Chi Cubs is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    Chi Cubs is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games at home
    Chi Cubs is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Chi Cubs's last 13 games at home
    Chi Cubs is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
    Chi Cubs is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Milwaukee
    The total has gone UNDER in 19 of Chi Cubs's last 24 games when playing Milwaukee
    Chi Cubs is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
    Chi Cubs is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chi Cubs's last 10 games when playing at home against Milwaukee


    Colorado Rockies
    Colorado is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
    Colorado is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado's last 7 games
    Colorado is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games on the road
    Colorado is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
    Colorado is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Colorado's last 9 games when playing LA Dodgers
    Colorado is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
    Los Angeles Dodgers
    LA Dodgers is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
    LA Dodgers is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 8 games
    LA Dodgers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    LA Dodgers is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games at home
    LA Dodgers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
    LA Dodgers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Colorado
    LA Dodgers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Colorado
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Dodgers's last 9 games when playing Colorado
    LA Dodgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Colorado
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games when playing at home against Colorado


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-01-2018 at 11:54 AM.

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    MLB
    Weather Report

    Monday, October 1



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    MLB
    Long Sheet

    Monday, October 1


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MILWAUKEE (95 - 67) at CHICAGO CUBS (95 - 67) - 1:05 PM
    JHOULYS CHACIN (R) vs. JOSE QUINTANA (L)
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CHICAGO CUBS is 11-8 (+1.2 Units) against MILWAUKEE this season
    14 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+8.5 Units)

    JHOULYS CHACIN vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
    CHACIN is 4-6 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 2.93 and a WHIP of 1.337.
    His team's record is 4-6 (-2.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-2. (+4.8 units)

    JOSE QUINTANA vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
    QUINTANA is 6-2 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 1.60 and a WHIP of 0.817.
    His team's record is 8-2 (+5.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-8. (-6.8 units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    COLORADO (91 - 71) at LA DODGERS (91 - 71) - 4:05 PM
    GERMAN MARQUEZ (R) vs. WALKER BUEHLER (R)
    Top Trends for this game.
    COLORADO is 259-456 (-80.6 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 since 1997.
    COLORADO is 91-71 (+20.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
    COLORADO is 44-37 (+16.1 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
    COLORADO is 83-70 (+15.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    COLORADO is 31-24 (+13.4 Units) against the money line in road games in day games over the last 2 seasons.
    COLORADO is 58-44 (+15.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
    COLORADO is 55-35 (+23.4 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
    COLORADO is 53-38 (+20.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    COLORADO is 39-23 (+21.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
    MARQUEZ is 8-2 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
    LA DODGERS are 91-71 (-22.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
    LA DODGERS are 17-23 (-18.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
    LA DODGERS are 44-37 (-22.1 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
    LA DODGERS are 7-12 (-15.0 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less this season.
    LA DODGERS are 88-67 (-23.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    LA DODGERS are 51-46 (-21.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
    LA DODGERS are 10-16 (-17.5 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    LA DODGERS is 12-7 (+1.5 Units) against COLORADO this season
    10 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.6 Units)

    GERMAN MARQUEZ vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
    MARQUEZ is 2-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.19 and a WHIP of 1.032.
    His team's record is 3-2 (+3.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-3. (-1.3 units)

    WALKER BUEHLER vs. COLORADO since 1997
    BUEHLER is 0-1 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 2.61 and a WHIP of 0.968.
    His team's record is 2-3 (-2.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-1. (+2.2 units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-01-2018 at 11:55 AM.

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    Season Win Total Update

    2018 Final Results Listed Below

    OVER Winners
    Atlanta Braves - 74 ½
    Boston Red Sox - 91 ½
    Chicago Cubs - 94 ½
    Colorado Rockies - 82
    Houston Astros - 96 ½
    Milwaukee Brewers - 84 ½
    New York Yankees - 94 ½
    Oakland Athletics - 74 ½
    Philadelphia Phillies - 75 ½
    Pittsburgh Pirates - 73
    Seattle Mariners - 81 ½
    St. Louis Cardinals - 85 ½
    Tampa Bay Rays - 77 ½

    UNDER Winners
    Arizona Diamondbacks - 85 ½
    Baltimore Orioles - 73
    Cincinnati Reds - 73 ½
    Chicago White Sox - 68
    Cleveland Indians - 94 ½
    Detroit Tigers - 68 ½
    Kansas City Royals - 71 ½
    Los Angeles Angels - 84 ½
    Los Angeles Dodgers - 96 ½
    Miami Marlins - 64 ½
    Minnesota Twins - 82 ½
    New York Mets - 81
    San Diego Padres - 69 ½
    San Francisco Giants - 81 ½
    Texas Rangers - 77 ½
    Toronto Blue Jays - 81
    Washington Nationals - 92 ½


    National League Win Totals
    Team Win Total - 2018 Record on 9/28/18
    Arizona Diamondbacks 85 ½ 82-80
    Atlanta Braves 74 ½ 90-72
    Chicago Cubs 94 ½ 95-67
    Cincinnati Reds 73 ½ 67-95
    Colorado Rockies 82 91-71
    Los Angeles Dodgers 96 ½ 91-71
    Miami Marlins 64 ½ 63-98
    Milwaukee Brewers 84 ½ 95-67
    New York Mets 81 77-85
    Philadelphia Phillies 75 ½ 80-82
    Pittsburgh Pirates 73 82-79
    San Diego Padres 69 ½ 66-96
    San Francisco Giants 81 ½ 73-89
    St. Louis Cardinals 85 ½ 88-74
    Washington Nationals 92 ½ 82-80


    American League Win Totals
    Team Win Total - 2018 Record on 9/28/18
    Baltimore Orioles 73 47-115
    Boston Red Sox 91 ½ 108-54
    Chicago White Sox 68 62-100
    Cleveland Indians 94 ½ 91-71
    Detroit Tigers 68 ½ 64-98
    Houston Astros 96 ½ 103-59
    Kansas City Royals 71 ½ 58-104
    Los Angeles Angels 84 ½ 80-82
    Minnesota Twins 82 ½ 78-84
    New York Yankees 94 ½ 100-62
    Oakland Athletics 74 ½ 97-65
    Seattle Mariners 81 ½ 89-73
    Tampa Bay Rays 77 ½ 90-72
    Texas Rangers 77 ½ 67-95
    Toronto Blue Jays 81 73-89

    Records updated through 9.30.2018
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-01-2018 at 11:56 AM.

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    According to reports, Jhoulys Chacin will get the start for the Milwaukee Brewers today in their one-game tiebreaker game at Wrigley Field against the Chicago Cubs.

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    MLB
    Dunkel

    Monday, October 1



    Milwaukee @ Chicago Cubs

    Game 951-952
    October 1, 2018 @ 1:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Milwaukee
    (Chacin) 15.762
    Chicago Cubs
    (Quntana) 17.684
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Chicago Cubs
    by 2
    10
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Chicago Cubs
    -130
    8
    Dunkel Pick:
    Chicago Cubs
    (-130); Over

    Colorado @ LA Dodgers


    Game 953-954
    October 1, 2018 @ 4:05 am

    Dunkel Rating:
    Colorado
    (Marquez) 17.890
    LA Dodgers
    (Buehler) 18.973
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Dodgers
    by 1
    5
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Dodgers
    -170
    7
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Dodgers
    (-170); Under

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    Season series: 11-8 Cubs but Brewers have won 7 of last 10.
    Cubs 17-5 in Quintana's last 22 home starts & 6-1 in his last 7 starts vs MIL.
    Chacin vs CHC in 2018: 2-2, 1.59 ERA, 0.971 WHIP.
    MIL +110 CHC -130
    Total: 8

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    Under is 23-6 in the last 29 meetings between the Brewers and Cubs.
    Under is 14-5 in their 19 meetings this season.
    Under is 8-1 in their 9 games played at Wrigley Field in 2018.
    Brewers/Cubs Total Today: 8

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