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Thread: NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (Thur. Sep. 27 - Mon. Oct. 1)

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    Default NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (Thur. Sep. 27 - Mon. Oct. 1)



    NFL Trends and Indexes

    Thursday. September 27 - Monday. October 1

    Additional trends and information will be added as available.

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Opening Line Report - Week 4
    Joe Williams

    After three weeks of NFL action, we have just three unbeaten teams remaining -- the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams and Miami Dolphins. In addition to being unbeaten straight-up, they're also 3-0 against the spread (ATS). Will that trend continue this week? So far the bet has been the Chiefs and the 'over', going 3-0 ATS and over the total. If you're been smashing those parlays so far, congrats. They'll put each of those streaks to the test on Monday night in the Mile High City against the rival Denver Broncos.

    In addition, Week 4 features the first of the byes, as the Carolina Panthers and Washington Redskins get the first in-season rests.

    Thursday, Sept. 27

    Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5, 49)


    It's amazing how much of a difference one week makes. The Vikings were on fire, laying the most points of the 2018 season against the Buffalo Bills (-17) in Week 3. It appeared we were on pace for a potential playoff preview featuring a pair of 3-0 SU teams. A funny thing happened, however, as the Bills remembered how to play professional football -- and no one retired this week.

    The Rams are favored by nearly a touchdown, but they have issues in the secondary. CB Aqib Talib might need corrective surgery for a high-ankle sprain, and CB Marcus Peters (calf) is also dinged up. The line opened at 6 1/2 at most shops, with Treasure Island opening this game at -6 before getting in line with everyone else. Westgate Superbook and William Hill opened at -7, but are also at 6 1/2 as of Tuesday morning.


    Sunday, Sept. 30

    Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-7, 47.5)

    The Dolphins are unbeaten on the season and against the number, but they head to Foxboro as decisive underdogs with Vegas not respecting their three opening wins. That's probably because the Fins haven't won in Foxboro since Sept. 21, 2008, a span of nine seasons. New England is 7-2 ATS during the nine-game home win streak against their AFC East rivals.

    Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-1, 47)

    The Texans limp into Lucas Oil Stadium looking for their first victory of the season. They might still be searching for a win after the weekend, as they are just 2-7 SU/3-5-1 ATS in their past nine trips to Indianapolis. The total might also seem rather high considering the 'under' has connected in nine straight meetings in Indy.

    Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons (-6, 51)

    The Bengals were aiming to go unbeaten through three, but they were unable to break the bank in Charlotte against the Panthers. If you're feeling the Falcons, Mirage-MGM opened the line at -5 1/2, and still had it there as of Tuesday morning. Where there has been movement is on the total, opening at MGM at 50 1/2, bumping up to 51 1/2 in just a few hours.

    Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers (-10, 45.5)

    The Bills changed the course of their season with a stunning upset win in Minnesota last week, and now they're look to win as a double-digit 'dog for the second straight week. All Vegas books have the Packers at 10 or higher, but you can still get in on the Pack at -9 1/2 at Treasure Island. There might be some doubt about the Packers, though, as QB Aaron Rodgers were limping noticeably in last week's loss in D.C. and bettors might be just one hit away from QB DeShone Kizer time.

    Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 43.5)

    The Lions gained the first win for new head coach Matt Patricia, dropping mentor Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots on Sunday night. The line is a field goal across the board all except Westgate has the 'Boys at -3.5, while Treasure Island has the home team at just - 2 1/2 as of Tuesday AM.

    New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5, 38)

    One week the Jags looked like a Super Bowl contender, then a 9-6 loss against the Tennessee Titans and their backup quarterback makes you wonder about their staying power. Vegas feels confident they'll rebound, especially against a team which lost to the lowly Cleveland Browns, ending their 18-game losing skid.

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-2.5, 48)

    'Fitz-magic' ran out on Monday night against the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers and now we get a chance to see how they rebound against the Bears D. There are some questions about the QB here, as Jameis Winston is eligible to return from a three-game suspension. Of course, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown for 400 or more yards in three straight -- becoming the first-ever QB to accomplish the feat in NFL history. Surely there won't be a change, right?

    Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 41.5) at Tennessee Titans

    The defending champs got their QB Carson Wentz back last week after a torn ACL last November shelved him until last Sunday. Philly won, but they failed to cover against an AFC South team, the Indianapolis Colts. The Titans grinded out a 9-6 win in 'Sacksonville', but they also have some QB questions with Blaine Gabbert in the concussion protocol and Marcus Mariota thrust into action despite an elbow issue.

    Seattle Seahawks (-3, 38.5) at Arizona Cardinals

    The Seahawks and Cardinals love to win on each other's field. The visiting team is 8-1-1 SU over the past 10 meetings in this series, and the Cardinals are 0-4-1 SU/ATS in their past five home games against the 'Hawks. The 'under' is also 3-0 in the past three meetings in this series. That's likely why everyone book has Seattle laying a field goal, with the line opening at -3 1/2 at Mirage-MGM.

    Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders (-2.5, 45)

    The Browns got off the schneid last week with a win over the Jets, while the Raiders are still searching for their first win in the second installment of Chucky-mania. The books aren't buying into the late-game heroics of rookie QB Baker Mayfield last week, favoring the winless Raiders at home.

    Bettors love the Raiders, particularly at Westgate and William Hill. The Browns opened as a pick 'em at Westgate, but bettors pushed the Raiders all the way up - 2 1/2 before leveling off with some money coming in on Cleveland to knock it down to two. William Hill opened at -1 in favor of Oakland, and it's up to -2 1/2 as of Tuesday morning. If you're feeling Mayfield and the second-place Browns, check out the offshore books, where BetOnline.ag has the Browns catching three points.

    San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5, 47.5)

    The 49ers are reeling after losing QB Jimmy Garoppolo to a torn ACL, and the road team is a double-digit favorite across the board. With offensive issues, the total might be a bit high, but it is holding steady at 47 1/2 at the Golden Nugget and the Wynn.

    New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 50) at New York Giants

    The Saints rolled up 40-plus points for the second time in three games with a win at Atlanta last week. However, they will be heading outside into the elements for the first time in 2018, while the Giants are trying to follow up a win for the first time in 2018. The early money is on the Saints, with the line opening at -3 and bumping to -3 1/2 at Peppermill, Stratosphere and Southpoint, as well as Westgate.

    Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 48.5)

    The Steelers picked up their first win of the season in Tampa, and face a quick turnaround with their rival Ravens visiting the Steel City on Sunday night. The home team is 8-2 SU over the past 10 home games, but the Steelers are 0-2-1 ATS over their past thre at home against Baltimore. The 'over' is 3-1 in the past four meetings in Heinz Field, and that might be an attractive play considering the Steelers defense cannot seem to stop anyone. The 'over' is 3-0 for Pittsburgh so far, averaging 29.3 PPG on offense while allowing 30.0 PPG on defense.


    Monday, Oct. 1

    Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, 55.5) at Denver Broncos


    The juggernaut Chiefs have been on fire, scoring at least 38 points in each of their three games. They say defense wins championships, and that's an area K.C. will need to work on if they want to be title contenders. The Chiefs have allowed at least 27 points in each game this season, allowing an average of 30.7 PPG. The Golden Nugget and Stations are particularly high on the Chiefs, opening them at -5.

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    Bookmakers expect NFL bettors to jump on red-hot Rams' odds after Vikings' Week 3 implosion
    Patrick Everson

    Kirk Cousins and Minnesota stunningly lost to Buffalo in Week 3, and though early Week 4 action favored the visiting Vikings vs. the Rams, the Superbook expects L.A. money to show up strong.

    Week 4 of the NFL season opens with a team coming off a monster upset loss against an unbeaten unit averaging 34 points per game. We check in on the opening lines and early action for four matchups, with insights from John Murray, sportsbook manager for the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

    Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams (-7)

    Minnesota went into its Week 3 home tilt as a 16.5-point favorite against seemingly hapless Buffalo. But things didn’t go quite as planned, as the Vikings (1-1-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) trailed 27-0 at halftime and ended up losing 27-6. Now, the Vikes have a short turnaround on the road, playing the Thursday nighter.

    Meanwhile, Los Angeles kept piling up points at a consistent rate in Week 3. After totaling 33 and 34 points in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively, the Rams (3-0 SU and ATS) bested the Los Angeles Chargers 35-23 as a 7.5-point chalk.

    “We opened this game Rams -7, a 2 point move from our lookahead line (last week) of Rams -5,” Murray said. “We took a bet right away on the Vikings +7 and went to 6.5. But I’m pretty sure we will need the Vikings big on Thursday. Minnesota looks like it was caught looking ahead in a terrible loss at home to the Bills.

    “The Rams are definitely the public team right now. They’re scoring points and covering spreads. The public loves them.”

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-1.5)

    Tampa Bay and Ryan Fitzmagic, er, Fitzpatrick are the talk of the league, but they’ve still got some Week 3 work to do, hosting Pittsburgh in a Monday night affair. The Buccaneers (2-0 SU and ATS) shocked New Orleans in Week 1 as a 10-point road pup, then beat defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia 27-21 catching 3 points at home in Week 2.

    After a tough Week 1 loss at Green Bay, Chicago bounced back with a pair of victories. The Bears (2-1 SU and ATS) rallied from a 14-0 first-quarter deficit to grab a 16-14 victory over Arizona as 5.5-point road faves in Week 3.

    “We opened the Bears -1.5, took a couple bets on them and moved it to -2,” Murray said. “Chicago struggled offensively against Arizona, but the public believes in its defense, and I can see why. This number could change depending on the ‘Monday Night Football’ game between the Steelers and Bucs.”

    Later Sunday, the line ticked up another notch to Chicago -2.5.

    Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+4.5)

    Kansas City quarterback Pat Mahomes is another big developing story this season, with 13 touchdown passes and no interceptions through three weeks. In Week 3 against San Francisco, Mahomes had three TDs as the Chiefs (3-0 SU and ATS) built a 35-7 lead and cruised to a 38-27 win laying 5.5 points at home.

    Denver played its first two games in the friendly confines of the Mile High City and won both. Week 3 on the road wasn’t nearly as kind, with the Broncos (2-1 SU, 0-2-1 ATS) tumbling to Baltimore 27-14 getting 5.5 points.

    “We opened the Chiefs -4.5 and took a bet on the Broncos, but left it,” Murray said, though later Sunday, the line did tick down to 4. “We will need the Broncos in this game. The public loves the Chiefs for all the same reasons I said they love the Rams. I can see why. Mahomes looks unbelievable right now. I’m confident books all over Nevada will have big liabilities on the Chiefs next Monday night.”

    Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-9.5)

    Perennial Super Bowl contender New England is off to a shaky start this season. After getting dominated at Jacksonville in Week 2, the Patriots couldn’t build any momentum at Detroit, losing 23-10 as a 7-point fave.

    With the Pats out of the gate slowly, Miami finds itself atop the AFC East. The Dolphins (3-0 SU and ATS) dropped Oakland 28-20 laying 3 points at home, but this Week 4 road trip will easily be their sternest test so far.

    “We opened the Patriots -9.5, despite the Dolphins getting off to an impressive 3-0 start,” Murray said. “I’ve been impressed with the Dolphins and consider New England to be a little on the overrated side right now, but we know where the money will come in on this game. The Patriots will be included in every moneyline parlay and teaser next week.”

    The Superbook moved down a tick to 9 just before the Patriots kicked off at Detroit, and then took the game off the board, which is standard operating procedure when a team is playing in the Sunday nighter. The matchup will be reposted on Monday morning.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 09-26-2018 at 02:29 AM.

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    Betting Recap - Week 3
    Joe Williams

    Overall Notes

    National Football League Week 3 Results
    Wager Favorites-Underdogs
    Straight Up 9-6
    Against the Spread 7-8

    Wager Home-Away
    Straight Up 10-5
    Against the Spread 10-5

    Wager Totals (O/U)
    Over-Under 7-8

    National Football League Year-to-Date Results

    Wager Favorites-Underdogs
    Straight Up 27-18-2
    Against the Spread 20-26-1

    Wager Home-Away
    Straight Up 29-16-2
    Against the Spread 26-20-1

    Wager Totals (O/U)
    Over-Under 24-23

    The largest underdogs to win straight up
    Bills (+17, ML +1000) at Vikings, 27-6
    Titans (+10, ML +400) at Jaguars, 9-6
    Lions (+7, ML +280) vs. Patriots, 26-10
    Giants (+6, ML +230) at Texans, 27-22

    The largest favorite to cover
    Rams (-7) vs. Chargers, 35-23
    Chiefs (-6) vs. 49ers, 38-27
    Ravens (-5.5) vs. Broncos, 27-14
    Browns (-3) vs. Jets, 21-17
    Dolphins (-3) vs. Raiders, 28-20

    Miami Nice

    -- The Miami Dolphins have fired out to a 3-0 SU/ATS record after topping the Oakland Raiders by a 28-20 score. The Dolphins have been particularly solid at home, averaging 27.5 points per game (PPG) while allowing 20.0 PPG, and the 'over' has connected in each of their two at Hard Rock Stadium. The Dolphins hold a two-game lead on everyone in the AFC East Division through three weeks and they can take a commanding lead with a win in Week 4 on the road against the New England Patriots, who limp home from the Motor City on a two-game losing streak.

    Shuffled Back To Buffalo

    -- The Buffalo Bills had been atrocious through the first two weeks, and they entered Week 3 against the Minnesota Vikings as a 17-point underdog. Those playing survivor pools were certainly not pleased with the result, and any chalk eaters brave enough to lay the points knew they had a losing ticket early on. The Bills had allowed 39.0 PPG through their first two games, so no one could have seen their stark turnaround coming against a team expected to contend for the Super Bowl. Their beleaguered defense stepped up and held the Vikings to just six points while scoring a season-high 27 points. They had managed a total of 23 points over their first two contests.

    Total Recall

    -- The five lowest totals on the board all cashed the 'under' this week, as defense reigned surpreme. The lowest total, Chicago-Arizona (39), ended up with a total of just 30 points. The Cardinals fired out of the box with 14 points in the first quarter, but put up goose eggs in their final three quarters. The Tennessee-Jacksonville (39.5) contest was expected to be a defensive battle, but the Titans and Jags took it to the extreme. QB Blaine Gabbert exacted revenge against his former team in a 9-6 slugfest, the lowest-scoring game of the season in the NFL so far. Dallas-Seattle (40), Buffalo-Minnesota (41) and N.Y. Jets-Cleveland (41) each ended up going well under.

    -- The highest total on the board in Week 3 was the Sunday Night Football game which was expected to be a shootout, but it never came into fruition. New England-Detroit (55.5) ended up not even coming close to the set total, as the Lions limited the Patriots in a 26-10 victor. The same couldn't said for the other two 50-plus games on the board, as New Orleans-Atlanta (54) and San Francisco-Kansas City (53.5) were both slam-dunk 'over' plays.

    -- The 'over' has cashed in all three games for the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals, Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers are the only three teams in the AFC with a 3-0 'over' mark so far. In the AFC South, the 'under' is 2-1 in for all four teams. In the NFC, the only team to hit the over in each of their three games is the Green Bay Packers. Meanwhile, the under is 3-0 for the Arizona Cardinals and Dallas Cowboys.

    -- There are two primetime games in the books so far in Week 3, with the under cashing in both. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 3-6 (33.3%).

    Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

    In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

    In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

    In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

    Injury Report

    -- Bengals WR A.J. Green (groin) left Sunday's game at Carolina due to a groin injury, but he feels he'll be ready for Week 4.

    -- 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo (knee) is believed to have suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament on a non-contact situation in Kansas City late in the game.

    -- Giants TE Evan Engram (knee) was knocked out of the Week 3 victory in Houston due to a knee injury and he was unable to return.

    -- Patriots RB Rex Burkhead (neck) suffered a neck injury in the third quarter of the game in Detroit and he was unable to return.

    -- Titans QB Blaine Gabbert (concussion) started against his former team, but he was knocked out, forcing QB Marcus Mariota (elbow) into action.

    Looking Ahead

    -- The winless Texans will head to Indianapolis to battle the Colts in Week 4. Over the years it hasn't been a great place for Houston to visit, as they're 2-7 SU in their past 10 visits while going 3-5-1 ATS. The 'under' has also cashed in each of the past nine meetings in Indianapolis.

    -- The Patriots host the Dolphins on Sunday. Miami hasn't won in Foxboro since Sept. 21, 2008, losing nine straight trips. The Patriots are 7-2 ATS during the nine-game home win streak against the Dolphins, including covers in each of the past six meetings in New England. The 'over' is 3-1 in the past four meetings in Foxboro, too.
    -- The Cardinals and Seahawks meet in Arizona, and the home team has really struggled in this series. Arizona is 0-4-1 SU/ATS across their past five home games against Seattle with the 'under' cashing in each of the past three meetings in the desert. In this series, the home team is just 1-8-1 SU across the past 10 meetings.

    -- The Steelers will host the Ravens in Week 4, and there has been a huge home-field advantage in this series. The home team has won eight of the past 10 meetings in this series, although Pittsburgh is 0-2-1 ATS in the past three at Heinz Field. The 'over' has also cashed in three of the past four meetings at Heinz Field.

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    Hot & Not Report

    Week of September 24th

    Another week of football action in college and the pros is in the books and it was an interesting weekend to say the least. NFL survivor pools across the nation have taken more casualties through three weeks than I can ever remember in recent years, as the Minnesota Vikings were the latest team to be apart of the blood bath with their outright home loss as nearly 17-point favorites vs Buffalo – a game Minnesota was never even close to being in the entire way.

    Also, in reference to last week's piece, the 'unders' involving NFC East teams continued to stay on course with a 2-2 O/U record in Week 3. The Dallas Cowboys remain one of two teams left in the entire NFL (Arizona being the other) that have yet to cash an 'over' ticket this year, and with scoring definitely up through three weeks this year across the board, I'm not sure how long that will last.

    Conversely, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs managed to stick their middle fingers up at being a part of the “Fade 40 club” with yet another impressive offensive performance to stay 3-0 SU and ATS. After putting up 35 points in the first half, it looked as though KC didn't want to tempt the “Fade 40 club” again this week as they only put up three points in the 2nd half to finish with 38 points. It's the New Orleans Saints turn in Week 4 to deal with that dilemma.

    Speaking of Week 4 in the NFL, we've now basically hit the quarter-pole of the campaign and it's a method a lot of NFL coaches like to use to break down the 16-game season. Handicapping can become a little more fluid now too with identities of these squads continually being revealed more and more, and that means more situational angles can get into play.

    Let's take a look at a few of them for this week:

    Who's Hot

    'Overs' for NFL teams off a TNF home game – 2-0 O/U in 2018, 22-11 O/U since start of 2016


    A common angle many bettors love to mention each week in the NFL is to back those teams off a Thursday Night football game because they've just had what amounts to a “mini-bye”. Rest is key in the NFL and for those teams who had to deal with an extremely short week, reaping the rewards the following week has to be the goal. But what appears to be the better angle here is to take those TNF teams who were at home and play the total 'over' the number the next week.

    We've already seen this angle go 2-0 O/U this season with Philly (home on TNF in Week 1) cash an 'over' ticket in Week 2, and this past week it worked again with the Cincinnati Bengals sailing 'over' the number in their game against Carolina. Whether it's because these TNF home teams get the added benefit of not having to travel on that short week – to or from that TNF game – or it's a simple case of extra rest, prep time, and film scouting – including scouting their next opponent live on Sunday/Monday prior to facing them - we will probably never know. But this trend can't be ignored at this point because it's not like it hasn't been consistent either. Last year saw this scenario go 9-5 O/U and 2016 finished with an 11-5 O/U mark.

    Side note for those of that are wondering, those numbers do not include the Thanksgiving afternoon games in Detroit and Dallas every year, but those specific teams went 2-0 O/U in 2017 and 0-2 O/U in 2016 following those Thanksgiving contests.

    This means that Browns fans – if they've stopped drinking in celebration from Cleveland's TNF win in Week 3 – better be prepared for some more great play from Baker Mayfield in Oakland for Week 4. It's the Cleveland/Oakland game that fits this scenario in Week 4 and wouldn't you know it we've already seen the opener of 44.5 be pushed up to 45 as of this writing.

    Who's Not

    2017 One-Year Wonder QB's Case Keenum, Deshaun Watson, and Jimmy Garoppolo winless ATS in 2018


    There are only three NFL teams that remain winless against the spread through three games in 2018 (Pittsburgh could be the 4th after MNF tonight) and they would be the Denver Broncos (0-2-1 ATS), Houston Texans (0-3 ATS) and San Francisco 49ers (0-3 ATS). Those numbers are a complete about face for those respective QB's as Denver's Case Keenum, Houston's Deshaun Watson, and San Francisco's Jimmy Garoppolo were ATS darlings when they were on the field just a season ago.

    Garoppolo's record likely isn't going to get any better as he's feared to be lost for the season with a knee injury which is a shame, but should we be fading these guys/teams in the immediate future?

    Regarding Keenum, he parlayed a great season as the replacement in Minnesota last year into a big contract and starting role in Denver, but through three games he has looked like the journeyman backup he was his entire career prior to 2017. There may still be time to give him another week or two given he is with a new team, but the leash can't be that long anymore for Keenum in Denver. The Broncos and Keenum are home dogs against the high-powered Chiefs on MNF in Week 4 which is an interesting spot to say the least in terms of how much trust you want to have in Keenum and the Broncos.

    Over in Houston, HC Bill O'Brien appears to be taking ALL the heat for the Texans 0-3 SU and ATS start simply because NFL fans saw how Deshaun Watson torched opposing defenses in his handful of games a year ago before getting hurt. But I believe Watson has to share nearly equal blame in this rough start (if he wasn't off an ACL it would be 50/50), because it's not like O'Brien wasn't the head guy last year during that great run by Houston and those same NFL fans were heaping praise on him for the move. Maybe the Texans (and Watson) are being overly cautious with his return, but the Texans offense just eclipsed 20 points for the first time in 2018 in Week 3 and it was only because they got a garbage time TD to do so.

    It may be time for bettors to start really considering that maybe Watson wasn't all he was cracked up to be during that great run in 2017 and understand that the same issue that has plagued Houston since their existence – a lack of a quality QB – is still the issue in 2018. Three games off an ACL I'm willing to give Watson the benefit of the doubt, but a poor showing by this Texans offense as road dogs in Indy this week may be the end of the line for O'Brien in Houston, or maybe even Watson as the starter of this team for a week or two.

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    NFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 4


    Thursday, September 27

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    MINNESOTA (1 - 1 - 1) at LA RAMS (3 - 0) - 9/27/2018, 8:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA RAMS is 187-232 ATS (-68.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 187-232 ATS (-68.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 87-121 ATS (-46.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 133-183 ATS (-68.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 145-184 ATS (-57.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 65-97 ATS (-41.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
    MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Sunday, September 30

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    MIAMI (3 - 0) at NEW ENGLAND (1 - 2) - 9/30/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MIAMI is 72-100 ATS (-38.0 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
    MIAMI is 56-80 ATS (-32.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
    NEW ENGLAND is 29-12 ATS (+15.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 29-12 ATS (+15.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    HOUSTON (0 - 3) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 2) - 9/30/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    HOUSTON is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in dome games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    INDIANAPOLIS is 2-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    INDIANAPOLIS is 2-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CINCINNATI (2 - 1) at ATLANTA (1 - 2) - 9/30/2018, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    BUFFALO (1 - 2) at GREEN BAY (1 - 1 - 1) - 9/30/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    GREEN BAY is 108-79 ATS (+21.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 188-135 ATS (+39.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DETROIT (1 - 2) at DALLAS (1 - 2) - 9/30/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DETROIT is 137-173 ATS (-53.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
    DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NY JETS (1 - 2) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 1) - 9/30/2018, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
    NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TAMPA BAY (2 - 0) at CHICAGO (2 - 1) - 9/30/2018, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TAMPA BAY is 2-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
    TAMPA BAY is 2-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PHILADELPHIA (2 - 1) at TENNESSEE (2 - 1) - 9/30/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TENNESSEE is 50-28 ATS (+19.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
    PHILADELPHIA is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SEATTLE (1 - 2) at ARIZONA (0 - 3) - 9/30/2018, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ARIZONA is 44-22 ATS (+19.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ARIZONA is 2-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
    ARIZONA is 2-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CLEVELAND (1 - 1 - 1) at OAKLAND (0 - 3) - 9/30/2018, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CLEVELAND is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
    OAKLAND is 50-82 ATS (-40.2 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 76-106 ATS (-40.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 76-106 ATS (-40.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 60-84 ATS (-32.4 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 76-106 ATS (-40.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 2) at LA CHARGERS (1 - 2) - 9/30/2018, 4:25 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NEW ORLEANS (2 - 1) at NY GIANTS (1 - 2) - 9/30/2018, 4:25 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
    NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    BALTIMORE (2 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (0 - 1 - 1) - 9/30/2018, 8:20 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BALTIMORE is 3-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
    PITTSBURGH is 3-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Monday, October 1

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    KANSAS CITY (3 - 0) at DENVER (2 - 1) - 10/1/2018, 8:15 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    KANSAS CITY is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    KANSAS CITY is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
    DENVER is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    DENVER is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    DENVER is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    KANSAS CITY is 4-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
    KANSAS CITY is 4-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 09-26-2018 at 02:31 AM.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    73,267
    Credits
    183,185

    Default

    NFL

    Week 4


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Thursday, September 27

    Minnesota Vikings
    Minnesota is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games
    Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Minnesota is 13-2-1 SU in its last 16 games
    Minnesota is 6-2-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games on the road
    Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
    Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 12 games when playing LA Rams
    Minnesota is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
    Los Angeles Rams
    LA Rams is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
    LA Rams is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 games at home
    LA Rams is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Rams's last 8 games at home
    LA Rams is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
    LA Rams is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Rams's last 12 games when playing Minnesota
    LA Rams is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Rams's last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota



    Sunday, September 30

    Philadelphia Eagles
    Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Philadelphia is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games
    Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
    Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Tennessee
    Tennessee Titans
    Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia


    Buffalo Bills
    Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games
    Buffalo is 7-12-3 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
    Buffalo is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    Buffalo is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Green Bay
    Buffalo is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Green Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
    Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
    Green Bay Packers
    Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Green Bay is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games
    Green Bay is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Buffalo
    Green Bay is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Buffalo
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
    Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo


    Detroit Lions
    Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit's last 11 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games on the road
    Detroit is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Dallas
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing Dallas
    Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Dallas
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
    Dallas Cowboys
    Dallas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games
    Dallas is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Detroit
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Detroit
    Dallas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Detroit
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit


    Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Tampa Bay is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games
    Tampa Bay is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
    Tampa Bay is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
    Tampa Bay is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Chicago
    Tampa Bay is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Chicago
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago
    Chicago Bears
    Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Chicago is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
    Chicago is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
    Chicago is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay


    New York Jets
    NY Jets is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    NY Jets is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games
    NY Jets is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
    NY Jets is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games on the road
    NY Jets is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Jacksonville
    NY Jets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
    Jacksonville Jaguars
    Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
    Jacksonville is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing NY Jets
    Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 7 games when playing NY Jets


    Miami Dolphins
    Miami is 4-7-2 ATS in its last 13 games
    Miami is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Miami's last 13 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
    Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games on the road
    Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New England
    Miami is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games when playing New England
    Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
    Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
    New England Patriots
    New England is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games
    New England is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games
    New England is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Miami
    New England is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing Miami
    New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
    New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami


    Houston Texans
    Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
    Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games
    Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
    Houston is 2-7-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Indianapolis
    Houston is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Indianapolis
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
    Houston is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
    Houston is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
    Indianapolis Colts
    Indianapolis is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Indianapolis's last 10 games
    Indianapolis is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Houston
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Houston
    Indianapolis is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Houston
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston


    Cincinnati Bengals
    Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Cincinnati is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing Atlanta
    Atlanta Falcons
    Atlanta is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 9 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati


    Seattle Seahawks
    Seattle is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    Seattle is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
    Seattle is 4-8-2 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 8 games on the road
    Seattle is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
    Seattle is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
    Seattle is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
    Seattle is 4-0-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Seattle's last 14 games when playing on the road against Arizona
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
    Arizona Cardinals
    Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games
    Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games at home
    Arizona is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
    Arizona is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Arizona's last 14 games when playing at home against Seattle
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle


    Cleveland Browns
    Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Cleveland is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games
    Cleveland is 1-18-1 SU in its last 20 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
    Cleveland is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
    Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 11 of Cleveland's last 16 games on the road
    Cleveland is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Oakland
    Cleveland is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Oakland
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Oakland
    Cleveland is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
    Oakland Raiders
    Oakland is 4-11-2 ATS in its last 17 games
    Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Oakland's last 10 games
    Oakland is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games at home
    Oakland is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Cleveland
    Oakland is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Cleveland
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
    Oakland is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland


    San Francisco 49ers
    San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    San Francisco is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
    San Francisco is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games
    San Francisco is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games on the road
    San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
    San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games when playing LA Chargers
    Los Angeles Chargers
    LA Chargers is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games
    LA Chargers is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Chargers's last 14 games
    LA Chargers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    LA Chargers is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games at home
    LA Chargers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 6 games at home
    LA Chargers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
    LA Chargers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 10 games when playing San Francisco


    New Orleans Saints
    New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    New Orleans is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games
    New Orleans is 14-5-1 ATS in its last 20 games on the road
    New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games on the road
    New Orleans is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
    New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
    New Orleans is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
    New York Giants
    NY Giants is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games
    NY Giants is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
    NY Giants is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games at home
    NY Giants is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
    NY Giants is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
    NY Giants is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 7 games when playing at home against New Orleans


    Baltimore Ravens
    Baltimore is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Baltimore's last 15 games
    Baltimore is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games on the road
    Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
    Baltimore is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
    Pittsburgh Steelers
    Pittsburgh is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games
    Pittsburgh is 18-6-1 SU in its last 25 games
    Pittsburgh is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
    Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Pittsburgh is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games at home
    Pittsburgh is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Baltimore
    Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
    Pittsburgh is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games when playing at home against Baltimore



    Monday, October 1

    Kansas City Chiefs
    Kansas City is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
    Kansas City is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
    Kansas City is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
    Kansas City is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
    Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
    Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing Denver
    Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
    Kansas City is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Denver
    Denver Broncos
    Denver is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Denver is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games
    Denver is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
    Denver is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
    Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
    Denver is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Kansas City


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 09-26-2018 at 02:32 AM.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    73,267
    Credits
    183,185

    Default

    NFL
    Dunkel

    Week 4



    Thursday, September 27

    Minnesota @ LA Rams

    Game 101-102
    September 27, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Minnesota
    126.530
    LA Rams
    141.007
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Rams
    by 14 1/2
    46
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Rams
    by 6 1/2
    49 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Rams
    (-6 1/2); Under



    Sunday, September 30

    Miami @ New England

    Game 251-252
    September 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Miami
    125.951
    New England
    135.103
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New England
    by 9
    44
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New England
    by 6 1/2
    47 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    New England
    (-6 1/2); Under

    Houston @ Indianapolis


    Game 253-254
    September 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Houston
    126.396
    Indianapolis
    125.387
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Houston
    by 1
    51
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Indianapolis
    by 1 1/2
    47
    Dunkel Pick:
    Houston
    (+1 1/2); Over

    Cincinnati @ Atlanta


    Game 255-256
    September 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Cincinnati
    132.849
    Atlanta
    135.430
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Atlanta
    by 2 1/2
    56
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Atlanta
    by 5 1/2
    51
    Dunkel Pick:
    Cincinnati
    (+5 1/2); Over

    Buffalo @ Green Bay


    Game 257-258
    September 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Buffalo
    131.726
    Green Bay
    125.283
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Buffalo
    by 6 1/2
    48
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Green Bay
    by 10 1/2
    45
    Dunkel Pick:
    Buffalo
    (+10 1/2); Over

    Detroit @ Dallas


    Game 259-260
    September 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Detroit
    129.689
    Dallas
    128.971
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Detroit
    by 1
    47
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Dallas
    by 3
    43 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Detroit
    (+3); Over

    NY Jets @ Jacksonville


    Game 261-262
    September 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    NY Jets
    124.014
    Jacksonville
    139.284
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Jacksonville
    by 15
    34
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Jacksonville
    by 7
    38 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Jacksonville
    (-7); Under

    Tampa Bay @ Chicago


    Game 263-264
    September 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Tampa Bay
    130.654
    Chicago
    135.667
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Chicago
    by 5
    42
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Chicago
    by 3
    46 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Chicago
    (-3); Under

    Philadelphia @ Tennessee


    Game 265-266
    September 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Philadelphia
    139.716
    Tennessee
    131.220
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 8 1/2
    33
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 3 1/2
    41 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Philadelphia
    (-3 1/2); Under

    Seattle @ Arizona


    Game 267-268
    September 30, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Seattle
    131.870
    Arizona
    123.049
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Seattle
    by 9
    34
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Seattle
    by 3
    39
    Dunkel Pick:
    Seattle
    (-3); Under

    Cleveland @ Oakland


    Game 269-270
    September 30, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Cleveland
    127.935
    Oakland
    123.499
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Cleveland
    by 4 1/2
    48
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Oakland
    by 3
    44 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Cleveland
    (+3); Over

    San Francisco @ LA Chargers


    Game 271-272
    September 30, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    San Francisco
    132.338
    LA Chargers
    131.436
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    San Francisco
    by 1
    52
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Chargers
    by 10 1/2
    46 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    San Francisco
    (+10 1/2); Over

    New Orleans @ NY Giants


    Game 273-274
    September 30, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    New Orleans
    131.140
    NY Giants
    130.852
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    NY Giants
    Even
    39
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New Orleans
    by 3 1/2
    50
    Dunkel Pick:
    NY Giants
    (+3 1/2); Under

    Baltimore @ Pittsburgh


    Game 275-276
    September 30, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Baltimore
    135.505
    Pittsburgh
    135.440
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Baltimore
    Even
    46
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 3
    51
    Dunkel Pick:
    Baltimore
    (+3); Under



    Monday, October 1

    Kansas City @ Denver

    Game 277-278
    October 1, 2018 @ 8:15 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Kansas City
    133.045
    Denver
    131.018
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Kansas City
    by 2
    49
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Kansas City
    by 5
    56
    Dunkel Pick:
    Denver
    (+5); Under
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 09-26-2018 at 02:33 AM.

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    NFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 4



    Thursday
    Vikings (1-1-1) @ Rams (3-0)— Minnesota threw 55 passes, ran ball only six times in 27-6 home loss to Buffalo LW, NFL’s biggest upset since ’95. Rams lost both starting CB’s LW; Talib is out here, Peters may play. LA won its first three games, by 20-34-12 points, scoring 34 ppg (8 TD’s on 18 drives in two home wins); under McVay, they’re 5-3 vs spread as home favorites. Under Zimmer, Vikings are 12-7 as road underdogs (2-4 last 2+ years); they’ve got no takeaways in last couple games (-4 TO’s). Minnesota won last five series games, including 24-7 (-2) home win LY; Vikings won last three road series games, but last visit to St Louis was in ‘14. Rams converted 16 of 26 on third down last two weeks; they’ve outscored opponents 52-10 in second half.


    Sunday
    Dolphins (3-0) @ Patriots (1-2)— Miami’s fast start makes this a more important game than it usually is, seeing how Patriots lost last two games, outscored 57-30 (34-6 in 1st half). NE lacks outside threat at WR, so Gronkowski is always doubled; Pats are 10-35 on 3rd down this year. NE is 22-12-3 in last 37 games as home favorites, 24-11 vs spread coming off a loss. Miami scored seven TD’s on 21 drives in last two games; they had three TD plays of 34+ yards LW in comeback win over Raiders. Dolphins are +4 in turnovers but only 10-41 on 3rd down; since ’14, they’re 10-16 as road underdogs. Home side won 10 of last 11 series games; Dolphins lost last nine visits here, with five of last six losses here by 10+ points.

    Texans (0-3) @ Colts (1-2)— Third road game in four weeks for 0-3 Houston that has losses by 7-3-5 points; they were outscored 55-19 in first half of games. Texans won field position in all three games, but have no takeaways in last two, and scored only 43 points in 11 visits to red zone this year- they’re 10-16 vs spread in last 26 road games. Colts were outgained 379-209 in 20-16 loss at Philly LW; they’ve had only seven plays of 20+ yards this month, have yet to average more than 5.5 yds/pass attempt in any game. Indy is 8-3 in last 11 series games; they beat Houston 20-14/22-13 LY, but Texans did win two of last three visits here. Last 2+ years, Colts are 14-7 vs spread when coming off a loss.

    Bengals (2-1) @ Falcons (1-2)— Atlanta’s defense fell apart at end of game LW; on Saints’ last four drives, they gave up 247 yards on 38 plays, four TD’s in an OT loss. Cincy scored 89 points in its 2-1 start, scoring 6.5 pts/red zone drive- they lost at Carolina last week because Dalton threw four picks. Atlanta gained 442/407 yards last two games; under Quinn, they’re 9-14 as home favorites (6-4 in last 10). Bengals are 3-8-1 vs spread in last dozen games as road dogs; since 2013, Cincy is 18-12-1 coming off a loss. Falcons won three of last four series games; Cincy lost their last three visits here- their last win in Atlanta was in ’87. Under is 7-6 in dome games so far this year; from 2013-17, over was 59% in games played in domes.

    Bills (1-2) @ Packers (1-1-1)— Over last decade, Buffalo is 22-38-3 vs spread coming off a win; LW they pulled NFL’s biggest upset in 23 years. Third road game in four weeks for Bills; under McDermott, they’re 4-4 as road underdogs. Buffalo’s TY in three games: 153-293-292; they won LW because they won field position by 22 yards, a huge margin. Green Bay is 26th in NFL in red zone scoring; hey averaged 5.5/4.9 yds/pass attempt last two games- Rodgers’ gimpy knee prevents him from scrambling as much as normal. Since ’14, Packers are 17-9-2 as home favorites, but only 1-4 in last five games when laying double digits. Home side won last seven series games; Bills lost last three visits here, by 10-10-27 points.

    Lions (1-2) @ Cowboys (1-2)— Short week for Lions after they upset Patriots Monday (TY was 414-209 Det, so maybe not a big upset). Detroit QB Stafford is from Dallas area, this is a homecoming here; Cowboys are 7-3 in last ten series games, winning last two, 24-20, 42-21. Lions lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 16-4-21 points. Since ’13, Detroit is 16-22-3 vs spread coming off a win- they’re 12-19 in last 31 games as road underdogs. Dallas offense is struggling; they’re last in NFL with only four plays of 20+ yards. Cowboys are 7-5 in last 12 games as home favorites; they’re 11-4-2 in last 17 games where spread was 3 or less points. All three Dallas games this season stayed under the total.

    Jets (1-2) @ Jaguars (2-1)— Rookie QBs generally struggle on road; this is third game in four weeks for Jets squad that is near bottom of NFL in red zone scoring, and scoring on drives starting 75+ yards from EZ. Under Bowles, Gang Green is 5-8-3 as road underdogs, 12-13-2 coming off a loss. Jaguars didn’t score TD in home loss to Titans LW; Jax gained only 166 yards. Under Marrone, Jags are 4-5 as home favorites, 10-7 coming off a loss. Jets won last four series games, including 23-20 (OT) home win LY; this is their first visit here since 2012. NFL-wide, home favorites in non-divisional games are 12-8-1 vs spread so far this season. Jets had three extra days to prep here, after playing on Thursday LW.

    Buccaneers (2-1) @ Bears (2-1)— Short week for Bucs after Monday nite loss; they won/covered their pre-bye game last three years. Fitzpatrick is first QB EVER to throw for 400+ yards three games in row; Tampa Bay is 8-5-1 as road dogs under Koetter, but they’re also 6-11-1 coming off a loss. Chicago was down 14-0 early in desert LW, rallied to beat woeful Cardinals; over last 10+ years, Bears are awful 16-26-3 as home favorites, but 1-0 this year- they held last two opponents to 276-221 total yards. Still don’t trust young QB Trubisky; Bears have only six plays of 20+ yards, but they’re +3 in turnovers- Chicago’s defense is sturdy. Bucs won last two series games, 36-10/29-7; teams split last four meetings here, with Tampa’s last visit here in ’14.

    Eagles (2-1) @ Titans (2-1)— Tennessee won divisional games last two weeks despite gaining only 283/233 yards; they’ve got QB injury issues. Titans threw for only 83 yards in ugly 9-6 win LW when neither team scored a TD- they’ve got only five plays of 20+ yards this year. Tennessee is 3-2 in last five games as home underdogs. Philly allowed only 61.7 rushing yards/game; they gave up 393 PY in only loss, at Tampa- not likely Titans can throw for 300+. Eagles outgained Indy 379-209 in Wentz’ first game back from injury; under Pederson, Philly is 2-5 as a road favorite. Titans won four of last five series games, winning last two played here, 27-24/37-19. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 5-3 vs spread in non-divisional games.

    Seahawks (1-2) @ Cardinals (0-3)— Home side is 0-6-1 in last seven series games; Seattle is 4-0-1 in last five visits here, with three of four wins by 12+ points. Rookie QB Rosen gets first NFL start here; he saw his first game action LW, in last two series vs Chicago, and threw two INT’s. In its first three games, Arizona gained 213-137-221 yards; they have zero red zone snaps last two games, so playing a rookie can’t be too much worse. Since ’12, Arizona is 11-6-1 as home underdogs. Seattle got its first win LW; Seahawks were +3 in turnovers- under Carroll, they’re 14-16-1 as road favorites- Wilson has been sacked 14 times already this year. So far this month, home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in divisional games.

    Browns (1-2) @ Raiders (0-3)— Oakland is 0-3 despite leading all three games at half; they’re oldest team in NFL and so far they look it, outscored 64-17 in 2nd half. This is first game they’re favored to win; over last decade, Raiders are 12-19 laying points at home. Raiders have 16 plays of 20+ yards, which is a lot, but they’ve allowed 17. Mayfield got win off bench in his NFL debut LW; this is his first NFL start. Browns’ defense held Saints to 275 yards in Superdome two weeks ago; they’re a good defense. Cleveland is 9-16 in last 25 games as road underdogs. NFC North teams are 6-2 vs spread outside division this month; AFC West teams are 4-3-1. Cleveland is 6-4 in this series, splitting six games here; teams haven’t met since ’15.

    49ers (1-2) @ Chargers (1-2)— Beathard was 1-4 as 49ers’ starter LY, gets first ’18 start here vs team his grandfather Bobby was GM of from 1990-2000. Would expect Niners to try and run ball more to protect young QB; they ran ball for 190-178 yards in last two games. SF lost both road games this month, by 8-11 points. Over last decade, 49ers are 4-7 as double digit dogs. Chargers gave up 521 yards in 35-23 loss to Rams LW; since ’09, Bolts are 2-7 vs spread when laying double digits. LA is 9-14 vs spread in last 23 games as home favorites; they’ve allowed 17 plays of 20+ yards, T3rd most in NFL. Chargers won last four series games, with two of those wins in OT. All three Charger games this season have gone over total.

    Saints (2-1) @ Giants (1-2)— Home side won 10 of last 11 series games, with average total in last five, 71.4; Saints lost six of last seven series games played here, losing last two 52-27/16-13- their last win here vs Giants was in ’06. Payton was once fired as OC of the Giants; don’t forget that Eli is from New Orleans. Saints scored 104 points in first three games, but all three were inside; this is 4:25 kickoff outdoors, which means end of game will be played at night. NO covered four of last five tries as road favorites. Giants allowed 20+ points in all three games; they’re 7-5 in last dozen games as home underdogs. Manning has been sacked 12 times already; Beckham has caught 24 balls for 271 yards, but no TD’s yet. Saints’ secondary is vulnerable.

    Ravens (2-1) @ Steelers (1-1-1)— Home side is 8-3 in last 11 series games; Ravens lost four of last five visits here, losing last two 31-27/39-38. Short week for Steelers after 30-27 win in Tampa Monday; they had four takeaways in first half, got blanked in second but held on for win. Totals in Pitt games this season: 42-79-57, as Steelers haven’t filled big hole left by injury to LB Shazier LY. Home side won/covered all three Raven games this season; they’re 8-7-1 in last 16 games as a road underdog, 7-2-1 vs spread in last AFC North road games. Baltimore has 12 TD’s in 12 trips to red zone this year (missed one PAT). Steelers are 3-5 in last eight games as home favorites; they’re 3-5-1 vs spread in last nine NFC North home games.


    Monday
    Chiefs (3-0) @ Broncos (2-1)— Mahomes has 13 TD passes in three games, averaging 9.6 yds/pass attempt; KC scored 38-42-38 points in winning/covering all three games, which all went over. Chiefs allowed 418/442 PY in their two road games; under Reid, they’re 8-5 as road faves. Denver won both its home games by total of four points; they’ve been bad in red zone, scoring only 3.88 pts/drive- hard to beat prolific Chiefs kicking FG’s. Broncos covered five of last seven tries as home underdogs. Chiefs won last five series games, winning last three visits to Mile High City, by 16-3-3 points. Denver does have 18 plays of 20+ yards and Chiefs have given up 20, so if weather cooperates, this could be an entertaining Monday night shootout.


    2018 week-by-week results
    HF HU Totals O/U AFC-NFC
    1) 5-6-1 2-2 8-8 2-2
    2) 4-6 5-1 8-8 1-1
    3) 7-5 3-1 8-8 5-3N
    T) 16-17-1 10-4 24-24 8-6
    Last edited by Udog; 09-26-2018 at 11:35 AM.

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    GAROPPOLO DONE FOR 2018

    The 49ers received the devastating news they were expecting on Monday as it was confirmed that Jimmy Garoppolo is done for the season with a torn ACL. San Francisco now turns to second-year man C.J. Beathard, who played in six games (started five) as a rookie before Jimmy G came over from the Patriots.

    The 49ers take to the road again in Week 4 to face the L.A. Chargers and a defense that was sliced for 354 passing yards and three touchdowns by Jared Goff last week and is giving up 271.7 passing yards per game. Beathard probably won’t get much respect throughout the week but he proved last year that he’s a serviceable QB, especially in Shanahan’s system as he threw for 230-plus yards in four of the six games he played in last season. The two games that he didn’t break 230 were against tough defenses in Philadelphia and Seattle.

    Niners coach Kyle Shanahan is one of the best offensive game planners in the league and he’ll dial up a scheme that suits Beathard. We’re going to monitor Beathard’s passing yards total when the market opens later in the week and we’ll be taking the Over if the total is around 230-240.


    BROWNS MAKE MAYFIELD OFFICIAL

    The Cleveland Browns surprised no one on Monday when they named Baker Mayfield the starting quarterback against Oakland in Week 4. Mayfield, of course, came on in relief of a concussed Tyrod Taylor in Week 3 and led the Browns to their first win in 635 days. Obviously, the No. 1 overall pick was going to start this week.

    We mentioned above that C.J. Beathard won’t get much hype this week but it’s going to be the exact opposite for Mayfield. Again, bettors will have to monitor the passing yards total when the number comes out later in the week, but blindly we’re going to lean towards the Under. Coach Hue Jackson won’t want to put too much pressure on Mayfield in his first start and he’s not going to put his franchise QB in a position to fail. Cleveland is built to be a run-first offense and that’s not going to change this week, especially not in Mayfield’s first start. Look towards the Under, assuming his passing yards total is around 250-260.


    BYE BYE BRADFORD

    The Arizona Cardinals have finally put fans out of their misery by sending Sam Bradford to the bench in favor of rookie Josh Rosen. Bradford was benched with 4:34 remaining in the fourth in Sunday’s loss and will stay there, at least for the time being. Rosen was 4 of 7 for 36 yards and an interception in his two drives as he attempted to lead the Cardinals to a comeback win over Chicago.

    This week, Rosen gets a home start against a Seattle defense that limited Dak Prescott to 168 yards on 34 passing attempts in Week 3. However, the Seahawks got gashed by Ezekiel Elliott as he rumbled for 127 yards on 16 carries. Clearly, Cardinals coach Steve Wilks will want to attack the run-challenged Seahawks defense with David Johnson. Doing so will also limit the pressure on Rosen in his first career start. This bet was a winner last week so let’s go back to the well and take David Johnson to score at any time.


    ENGRAM TO MISS TIME

    New York Giants tight end Evan Engram sprained his MCL in the Week 3 win over Houston and will miss time, meaning that Eli Manning is down one of his most talented pass catchers. Rhett Ellison is next up on the depth chart and he had three catches for 39 yards and a touchdown in Week 3, but it’s tough to back a blocking specialist that has 81 career catches in 92 games.

    Instead, bettors should look towards Sterling Shepard in a delightful matchup against New Orleans this weekend. Shepard had his best game of the season against Houston, hauling in six catches for 80 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. Shepard will remain the No. 2 option behind Odell Beckham Jr. and the Saints are coming off a game in which they allowed Calvin Ridley — Atlanta’s No. 2 receiving option — seven catches, 146 yards, and three touchdowns. Let’s look towards a big game for Shepard and take the Over on his receiving yards total.


    COWBOYS NOT CHANGING

    Dallas coach Jason Garrett told reporters on Monday that he isn’t planning any major changes on offense, despite scoring just 41 points on the season. "I think it would be false for me to say this is about play calling," Garrett said about their offensive woes. The play calling he refers to has resulted in big games from Ezekiel Elliott (274 yards, two touchdowns) but not for Dak Prescott (498 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions).

    It’s tough to take coaches for their word but we’re going to believe Garrett on this one, especially since the Cowboys are hosting the Detroit Lions on Sunday. The Lions rank 31st in the NFL against the rush and are giving up 149.3 yards per game. They’ve also given up three rushing touchdowns through three games. It’s a pretty safe bet that Elliott is going to see a lot of carries against Detroit and we’re backing him to score at any time.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 09-26-2018 at 02:34 AM.

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    NFL's Top Over Teams:

    Bengals 3-0
    Packers 3-0
    Chiefs 3-0
    Chargers 3-0
    Steelers 3-0
    Buccaneers 3-0
    8 teams tied at 2-1

    NFL's Top Under Teams:

    Cardinals 3-0
    Cowboys 3-0
    16 teams tied at 2-1
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 09-26-2018 at 02:35 AM.

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    NFL's remaining unbeaten ATS teams:

    Browns 3-0 ATS
    Chiefs 3-0 ATS
    Rams 3-0 ATS
    Dolphins 3-0 ATS

    NFL's remaining winless ATS Teams:

    49ers 0-3 ATS
    Texans 0-3 ATS
    Broncos 0-2-1 ATS
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 09-26-2018 at 02:36 AM.

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    Tech Trends - Week 4
    Bruce Marshall

    Thursday, Sept. 27

    MINNESOTA at L.A. RAMS (FOX/NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)

    Zimmer 19-9 as dog since arriving at Vikes in 2014. Also 6-3 vs. spread last nine away.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Vikings, based on team trends.


    Sunday, Sep. 30

    MIAMI at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Dolphins no covers last six at Foxborough, and no SU wins since the “Wildcat” game of 2008. Dolphins 3-7 vs. line away since LY (but 1-0 in 2018). Belichick 12-6 last 18 vs. points reg season at Gillette Stadium.
    Tech Edge: Patriots, based on series trends.

    HOUSTON at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Texans “under” 9-3 last 12 since late 2017. Colts “under” 11-2 last 13 since mid 2017.
    Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

    CINCINNATI at ATLANTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Marvin Lewis 8-4-1 last 12 as dog since late 2016. Falcons on 8-2 “under” run since late 2017.
    Tech Edge: Bengals and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

    BUFFALO at GREEN BAY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Bills back in win column after losses first two, and Pack also failed to cover first two as Lambeau chalk. GB on 6-game spread skid since late 2017. Pack “over” 20-5 last 25 since late 2016.
    Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

    DETROIT at DALLAS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Dallas just 5-8 last 13 as Arlington chalk. Cowboys also “under” 11-1 last 12 since mid 2017.
    Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.

    N.Y. JETS at JACKSONVILLE (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Bowles 3-7-1 last 11 vs. line on road. Though Jets 8-4-2 as dog since late 2016. Jets also “under” 5-2 last 7 since late 2017.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Jags and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

    TAMPA BAY at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Bucs 12-4-1 his last 17 as an underdog. Bucs also “over” 8-2 last ten away. Bears 2-6 last 8 as home chalk (though 1-0 TY for Nagy).
    Tech Edge: Bucs and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

    PHILADELPHIA at TENNESSEE (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Birds were 6-3 vs. line away from Linc LY. Also “over” 9-3 last 12 away. Titans on 10-1-2 spread run at home since mid 2016.
    Tech Edge: Slight to “Over” and Titans, based on “totals” and team trends.

    SEATTLE at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
    Last three meetings “under” in Glendale. Pete Carroll 4-0-1 vs. line last five at State Farm Stadium. Carroll, however, on 8-14-1 spread skid since late 2016. Cards “under” 6 of last 7 since late 2017.
    Tech Edge: "Under" and slight to Seahawks, based on “totals” and series trends.

    CLEVELAND at OAKLAND (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
    Browns have covered last four since late 2017. Raiders “unders” 9-0-1 last 10 since late 2017.
    Tech Edge: “Under” and Browns, based on “totals” and team trends.

    SAN FRANCISCO at L.A. CHARGERS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
    Bolts 4-9-1 vs. line in first four games of season since 2015. Chargers “under” 10-4 last 14 since early 2017 (though “over” 3-0 TY). 49ers 7-3 vs. line last ten away.
    Tech Edge: Slight to "under” and 49ers, based on “totals” and team trends.

    NEW ORLEANS at NY GIANTS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
    G-Men 3-6 vs. line at home since LY. Also “under” 8-2 last 10 since mid 2017. Saints 4-1 last five as road chalk.
    Tech Edge: Saints and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

    BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
    Ravens 6-2-1 vs. line last nine meetings. Harbaugh also 3-0-1 vs. spread last 4 at Heinz Field. Steel just 3-9 vs. spread last 12 as host, also “over” 8-3 last 11 at Heinz.
    Tech Edge: Ravens and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.


    Monday, Oct. 1

    KANSAS CITY at DENVER (ESPN, 8:25 p.m. ET)

    Chiefs have won and covered last five meetings. “Overs” 5-0-1 last six in series. Broncos 5-2 as home dog since 2015.
    Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Chiefs, based on “totals” and series trends.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 09-26-2018 at 02:37 AM.

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    RAMS, VIKINGS HURTING

    Minnesota visits the L.A. Rams on Thursday Night Football in a game where multiple impact players could be missing. We know for sure that Rams CB Aqib Talib (ankle) is out and CB Marcus Peters (calf) isn’t expected to play, though he hasn’t officially been ruled out. For the Vikings, defensive end Everson Griffen (personal) is out, while running back Dalvin Cook (hamstring) is questionable.

    So, what does it all mean? Well, it might be a good night to look the Over. Even without the defensive injuries, the Rams seem to be trending in that direction as the total has gone Over in two of their three games this season (and only didn’t go Over in Week 2 because Arizona put up a goose egg). The Rams are unstoppable on offense and seem to be content keeping their foot on the gas and piling up points right until the end. Additionally, they’re catching the Vikings defense at the right time as it has given up 56 points over the last two games. Finally, the Vikings might be throwing all night due to Cook’s injury and to L.A.’s cornerback issues. The total is high at 49.5 but we’re still feeling good about the Over.


    MARIOTA STILL NOT RIGHT

    Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota (elbow) did not start in Week 3 at Jacksonville but was forced into the game after Blaine Gabbert sustained a concussion. Mariota wound up “rallying” the Titans to a 9-6 win, but his stat sheet left a lot to be desired, completing just 12 of 18 passes for 100 yards. On Monday, Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel once again told reporters that there are still throws that Mariota can’t make because of the nerve issue in his throwing arm.

    Tennessee’s QB options for Sunday’s home game against Philadelphia are a banged-up Mariota or a concussed Gabbert, meaning the Titans will have no choice but to try and run the bal. The only problem is that the Eagles own the league’s best run defense at 61.7 yards against per game. Points should be a struggle for the Titans in Week 4. We got a winner by betting the Under for the Titans team total last week and we’re making that same bet again this time around.


    HARBAUGH PRAISES ALLEN

    Ravens coach John Harbaugh had this to say about running back Javorious (Buck) Allen after Sunday’s game: "I think Buck Allen has really become one of the real legitimate players in this league — kind of quietly. He's become a top-level player.” Very high praise for someone who has just 32 yards on 16 carries this season. Allen does, however, have three rushing touchdowns and 13 catches for 70 yards and another receiving score. He has also been used more than Alex Collins near the goal line, receiving four touches inside the five-yard line compared to Collins’ one. The Ravens head to Pittsburgh on Sunday night to take on a Steelers defense that ranks 25th in the NFL in rushing defense. Let’s back Allen to hit pay dirt once again with a touchdown at any time.


    A DIFFERENT ALLEN TO SCORE

    Here’s a crazy usage stat: Since being named the Bills’ starting quarterback in Week 2, only three players (Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara, and Carlos Hyde) have more carries inside the 10-yard line than Josh Allen. That usage resulted in two rushing touchdowns last week in the Bills shocking win over the Vikings, one from the 10-yard line and the other from the one. LeSean McCoy was inactive last week, but Chris Ivory was having success (56 rushing yards, 70 receiving yards) and it was still Allen getting the call near the goal line.

    The Bills are in another tough spot in Week 4 as they travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Packers, but Green Bay’s defense ranks 23rd in the NFL. Allen should be able to move the Bills into the red zone and, if he gets there, chances he’s going to call his own number. We’re taking Allen to score at any time.


    ROLLING RIVERS

    Lost in the Chargers’ 1-2 start to the season, is how well quarterback Philip Rivers is playing. The veteran is connecting on almost 70 percent of his passes and has thrown for 906 yards with eight touchdowns, and only one interception. It has just been unfortunate that his Chargers have run into the buzz saws that are the Chiefs and Rams already this season.

    On Sunday, Rivers and the Chargers host the Jimmy Garoppolo-less San Francisco 49ers as 10.5-point favorites. The Niners, who are already struggling defensively to the tune of 29.7 points allowed per game, will also be without CB Richard Sherman (calf). The Chargers shouldn’t have any issues scoring and, as we noted yesterday, we’re betting on Niners quarterback C.J. Beathard being serviceable. That would give the Chargers reason to keep scoring later in the game. We like Rivers to keep rolling and we’re backing the Over on the Chargers’ team total.

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    Teams to Watch - Week 4

    Futures Forecast Predictions, top picks, teams to avoid for Week 4

    As we look ahead to Week 4 of the 2018 NFL season, we are putting together our weekly set of teams to play and avoid. It has been a bit of a strange start to the season, with some of the teams we expected to be on top struggling in the early going. There are a couple of dark horse teams emerging, too, but with a large portion of the season still to be played, we are trying not to get too carried away with those guys.

    We will, as always, be taking a look at 4 teams this week, picking 2 to play and 2 to avoid, so let’s get right to the selections and their odds, props and futures.

    Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
    I can’t remember the last time I looked at the standings and did not see the New England Patriots on top of the AFC East. They have started the season at 1-2 and do not look anything like the Patriots team that we have come to expect over the past decade or so, especially on the offensive side of the football. The Patriots will be hosting their division rivals, the Miami Dolphins, this week and will have their hands full with a team brimming with confidence after starting the season at 3-0. While the Patriots have dominated the Dolphins in recent years, I have my doubts about this weekend, particularly ATS, which is why I plan to avoid the New England Patriots.

    Minnesota Vikings at LA Rams
    There have been few teams that have lived up to the preseason hype through the opening 4 weeks, although the Rams are certainly not in that group. The Rams spent a small fortune in the offseason building a team designed to make a run at the Super Bowl. That big investment is paying off in spades, as they are one of only 3 unbeaten teams heading into Week 4. This will be a big test for the Rams, as they will be hosting a Minnesota Vikings team sure to be smarting after a loss to the Buffalo Bills last week. The Vikings are another big favorite this season, but they are off to a slow start, which is why I will be looking at the SU as I I play the LA Rams.

    San Francisco 49ers at LA Chargers
    A season that started with so much hope and promise is quickly turning into a nightmare for the San Francisco 49ers. The believed that Jimmy Garoppolo was going to be the man to lead them back to elite status, but the QB tore his ACL last week and is now done for the year. Throw in an injury to Richard Sherman and you are looking that a team that has injuries starting to pile up. Things do not get any easier for the 49ers this weekend, as they will be on the road to face Phillip Rivers and the Chargers. Until I see how this tam reacts to the loss of their QB, I am going to avoid the San Francisco 49ers.

    Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
    At the start of this piece, I spoke about the importance of not getting too carried away by a dark horse team, but it’s impossible not to be impressed by what the Kansas City Chiefs are doing right now. Specifically, the play of young QB Patrick Mahomes has been a joy to behold, as he seems to be doing nothing but throwing TD passes through the opening 3 weeks of the season. The Chiefs have a tough road trip on Monday night, as they head into Denver to face the Broncos. It’s never an easy place to go and get a win, but I am ready to play the Kansas City Chiefs.

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