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Thread: NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 2 (Thur. Sep. 13 - Mon. Sep. 17)

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    Default NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 2 (Thur. Sep. 13 - Mon. Sep. 17)



    NFL Trends and Indexes

    Thursday. September 13 - Monday. September 17

    Additional trends and information will be added as available.

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Opening Line Report - Week 2
    Joe Williams

    After an exciting opening week of the NFL regular season, we have a little bit of information to try and determine which teams to back, which teams to fade, etc. However, it isn't until a full month or so where we get a much better sample size. One team now could be world beaters at home, but then hit the road and look like a completely different team. There were a couple of teams to open with emphatic road victories, and their number in the home opener in Week 2 might be a bit inflated, providing value for the underdogs.

    Looking back at Week 1, the Baltimore Ravens routed the Buffalo Bills by a 47-3 score, so bettors will likely overrate the Ravens based on their one result, while writing off the Bills. The Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, New York Jets and Tampa Bay Buccaneers scored huge road wins, so the public is likely to get behind them after impressive wins. It's just one win, though. Don't get crazy and look at some past trends in the series as well as a little common sense.

    Thursday, Sept. 13

    Baltimore Ravens (-1, 44) at Cincinnati Bengals


    The Ravens opened as high as -3 at BetOnline.ag offshore, and mostly -1 to -1.5 at the Vegas books. At the Wynn, it opened with Baltimore -1.5 and quickly moved to a pick 'em in less than 24 hours. Apparently the sharps aren't terribly impressed by Baltimore's 47-3 whitewashing of Buffalo. Cincinnati also opened with a solid 34-23 road win at Indianapolis.

    These teams split last season, with the Ravens winning 20-0 at Paul Brown Stadium on Sept. 10, 2017 as a 2 1/2-point underdog, while the Bengals returned to the favor on New Year's Eve by a 31-27 count as an eight-point underdog. The Bengals lost two of their three divisional games at home last season, going 2-1 ATS. The 'over' also cashed in each of Cincinnati's past four against AFC North opponents.


    Sunday, Sept. 16

    Indianapolis Colts at Washington Redskins (-5.5, 46)


    The good news is that the Colts got their franchise quarterback, Andrew Luck, back from his lengthy injury. He looked good, but the results were the same, as Indy lost to Cincinnati. Meanwhile, the Redskins opened with a 24-6 road win against the Cardinals, so they're moderate favorites to win their home opener.

    The line has held steady at -5.5 at most books, while Washington opened -4.5 at the the Westgate Superbook before rising to -5.5 like the others.

    Washington was 2-0 SU/ATS in their two games at home against the AFC last season, and they're 4-1 SU/ATS in the past five at FedEx Field vs. AFC.

    Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-5.5, 44.5)

    The Panthers struggled offensive and lost TE Greg Olsen (foot) to injury, while the Falcons have had a few extra days to recover after opening with a Thursday loss in Week 1. The line opened at -4.5 to -5 at most shops, and was up to -6 at the Mirage-MGM by Monday afternoon.

    Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (PK, 46)

    This game opened with the Packers slight favorites on Sunday night, but the script has flipped at most shops with the Vikings either a pick 'em or even slightly favored. At the Golden Nugget it was OFF, as there is some uncertain about the health of Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (knee) going into Week 2.

    Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5, 43) at Buffalo Bills

    The Bills were paddled in Week 1 on the road, already have a quarterback dilemma, and the best QB they had in camp is now wearing silver and black. The Chargers hammered Buffalo by a 54-24 on Nov. 19 last season, cashing as seven-point favorites. The movement has been on the total side, opening at 44 at most shops only to tumble to 43 or 43.5, and it might not be done yet with a lot of doubt about Buffalo's offensive ability.

    Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (OFF)

    This game is currently off the board due to the uncertain status of QB Marcus Mariota (elbow), who suffered injury in Week 1 in Miami. Even if Mariota can play, he'll be without a big weapon in TE Delanie Walker. The Titans were a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS at home inside the division last season.

    Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5, 53)

    The marquee game of the Sunday schedule looked to be the Chiefs-Steelers, and Kansas City held up their end of the bargain with an offensive showcast on the road against the Chargers last week. The Steelers squandered a 14-point lead heading into the fourth quarter in Cleveland, settling for a tie in a sloppy, rain and miscue-filled second half.

    There hasn't been much movement on the line, but the total opened as low as 50 at the the Stratosphere before rising to 53 in about eight hours.

    Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (OFF)

    Jets rookie Sam Darnold opened with a pick-six in the first 20 seconds of his NFL career. They recovered, running to a 48-17 win. It was their first time cracking 40 points since they outscored Buffalo 48-28 in the season opener on Sept. 9, 2012. In other words, expect a bit of a backslide at home.

    Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 44) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    The defending champs gutted out an 18-12 defensive battle win against the Falcons in a game which resembled a preseason game. They've had 10 days to make the necessary adjustments. The Bucs had no such issues on offense, displaying a little 'Fitz-magic' in New Orleans, 48-40. Despite the offensive explosive from the Bucs in Week 1, the line is just 44 on the grass surface in Tampa. The Bucs scored 21 or more points in five of their eight games at the RayJay last season.

    Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints (-8.5, 50)

    The Browns battled back to a tie against the Steelers in Week 1, gaining a little confidence. The Saints opened Week 2 as the heaviest favorites on the board. They held the same honor in the opening week and lost outright as double-digit favorites.

    Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (OFF)

    The offense of the Cards sputtered, as coach Steve Wilks joined the club of new coaches to lose their Week 1 game. Meanwhile, the Rams lambasted Chucky and the Raiders 33-13 and will now go to L.A. for a little home cooking. L.A. outscored Arizona 65-16 in two meetings in 2017, including a 33-0 shellacking in the Coliseum on Oct. 22, 2017.

    Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (OFF)

    Lions QB Matthew Stafford looked colorblind, as he almost threw as many passes to Jets defenders as he threw to his own receivers. It wasn't the 'Patriot Way' that Matt Patricia hoped to bring to Motown. It looked like the same old Lions instead. Meanwhile, Jimmy Garoppolo enters this game in unchartered territory, looking to rebound after his first loss as an NFL starter.

    New England Patriots (-2.5, 45) at Jacksonville Jaguars

    If you want to be the best, you have to beat the best. Down in Duuuuuval, there are high expectations on the Jaguars. A couple of things are affecting this line, however. First off, it's the Patriots, who almost seem to be good for an automatic three points for mystique. Two, and likely most importantly, Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette left the opener with a hamstring injury and he is uncertain for Week 2.

    The Patriots won and covered their only game last season favorite by less than three points, topping Pittsburgh 27-24 at Heinz Field on Dec. 17. New England is 4-0 SU/ATS as a favorite of four or less in their past four games.

    Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (OFF)

    There is hope in the Mile High City again, winning their opener with Case Keenum under center. That wasn't the 'case' in Oakland on Monday, as the Raiders looked horrific on offense in Chucky's debut, and he failed to make the correct adjustments in the second half in a chess match with Sean McVay.

    New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 42.5)

    The Giants didn't muster much in the way of offense, losing to the Jaguars at home. They faced one of the most gifted defensive units in the league, and rookie RB Saquon Barkley looked like the real deal. Outside of RB Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys are pretty devoid of playmakers at the skill positions. It showed in a 16-8 loss in Carolina.

    Dallas blasted New York 19-3 in Jerry World on Sept. 10, 2017, and 30-10 at MetLife on Dec. 10, covering both games which resulted in unders. The total at the Stations opened at 43.5 and has been bet down to 42, as bettors aren't feeling the offenses.


    Monday, Sept. 17

    Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (-3.5, 42.5)


    The Bears defense looked amazing in the first half, but then they melted down in the second half as Aaron Rodgers did his thing. Can Chicago recover at home on Monday night against a wounded, yet still dangerous Seattle team?

    The biggest question will be whether or not QB Russell Wilson has WR Doug Baldwin (knee) at his disposal. He was injured (again), and is a question mark. Also a question, can the Bears play a full 60 minutes with the kind of defensive fervor they showed in the first half at Lambeau? Seattle pushed on a three-point number last week in the loss in the Mile High City against a Broncos team which might be worse than these Bears.

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    NFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 2


    Thursday, September 13

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    BALTIMORE (1 - 0) at CINCINNATI (1 - 0) - 9/13/2018, 8:20 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CINCINNATI is 2-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
    CINCINNATI is 2-2 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Sunday, September 16

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    INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 1) at WASHINGTON (1 - 0) - 9/16/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    WASHINGTON is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    WASHINGTON is 33-53 ATS (-25.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 62-95 ATS (-42.5 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 87-116 ATS (-40.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 87-116 ATS (-40.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 87-116 ATS (-40.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 14-31 ATS (-20.1 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    CAROLINA (1 - 0) at ATLANTA (0 - 1) - 9/16/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CAROLINA is 114-84 ATS (+21.6 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ATLANTA is 3-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
    ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    MINNESOTA (1 - 0) at GREEN BAY (1 - 0) - 9/16/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    GREEN BAY is 187-134 ATS (+39.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MINNESOTA is 3-1 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
    MINNESOTA is 3-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    LA CHARGERS (0 - 1) at BUFFALO (0 - 1) - 9/16/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA CHARGERS is 95-69 ATS (+19.1 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS is 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    LA CHARGERS is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
    LA CHARGERS is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    HOUSTON (0 - 1) at TENNESSEE (0 - 1) - 9/16/2018, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TENNESSEE is 2-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    TENNESSEE is 2-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    KANSAS CITY (1 - 0) at PITTSBURGH (0 - 0 - 1) - 9/16/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PITTSBURGH is 105-77 ATS (+20.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
    PITTSBURGH is 91-66 ATS (+18.4 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    KANSAS CITY is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) in September games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PITTSBURGH is 3-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
    PITTSBURGH is 3-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    MIAMI (1 - 0) at NY JETS (0-0) - 9/16/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MIAMI is 71-100 ATS (-39.0 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NY JETS is 1-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
    MIAMI is 3-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    PHILADELPHIA (1 - 0) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 0) - 9/16/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    CLEVELAND (0 - 0 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (0 - 1) - 9/16/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CLEVELAND is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) against AFC North division opponents since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    ARIZONA (0 - 1) at LA RAMS (0-0) - 9/16/2018, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA RAMS is 184-232 ATS (-71.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 184-232 ATS (-71.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 132-183 ATS (-69.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 62-97 ATS (-44.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 34-54 ATS (-25.4 Units) in September games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    LA RAMS is 3-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
    LA RAMS is 3-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    DETROIT (0-0) at SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 1) - 9/16/2018, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DETROIT is 5-20 ATS (-17.0 Units) in road games against NFC West division opponents since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    NEW ENGLAND (1 - 0) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 0) - 9/16/2018, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ENGLAND is 29-10 ATS (+18.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 29-10 ATS (+18.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    OAKLAND (0-0) at DENVER (1 - 0) - 9/16/2018, 4:25 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
    DENVER is 2-2 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NY GIANTS (0 - 1) at DALLAS (0 - 1) - 9/16/2018, 8:20 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DALLAS is 2-2 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
    DALLAS is 2-2 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Monday, September 17

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    SEATTLE (0 - 1) at CHICAGO (0 - 1) - 9/17/2018, 8:15 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CHICAGO is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    NFL

    Week 2


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    Trend Report
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    Thursday, September 13

    Baltimore Ravens
    Baltimore is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Baltimore is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Baltimore's last 13 games
    Baltimore is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Baltimore is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games on the road
    Baltimore is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Cincinnati
    Baltimore is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Cincinnati
    Baltimore is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
    Baltimore is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
    Cincinnati Bengals
    Cincinnati is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
    Cincinnati is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
    Cincinnati is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore
    Cincinnati is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore
    Cincinnati is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against Baltimore
    Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore



    Sunday, September 16

    Houston Texans
    Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
    Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games
    Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
    Houston is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Tennessee
    Houston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Tennessee
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Houston's last 15 games when playing Tennessee
    Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Houston's last 12 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
    Tennessee Titans
    Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Tennessee is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games
    Tennessee is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home
    Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games at home
    Tennessee is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Houston
    Tennessee is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Houston
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Tennessee's last 15 games when playing Houston
    Tennessee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Houston
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tennessee's last 12 games when playing at home against Houston
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing at home against Houston


    Minnesota Vikings
    Minnesota is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games
    Minnesota is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games
    Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Minnesota is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games on the road
    Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
    Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
    Minnesota is 5-11-1 SU in its last 17 games when playing Green Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing Green Bay
    Minnesota is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
    Minnesota is 2-6-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
    Green Bay Packers
    Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Green Bay is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 7 games
    Green Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Green Bay is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
    Green Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay's last 12 games at home
    Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
    Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Green Bay's last 7 games when playing Minnesota
    Green Bay is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota
    Green Bay is 9-3-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Minnesota


    Cleveland Browns
    Cleveland is 6-18-1 ATS in its last 25 games
    Cleveland is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    Cleveland is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
    Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 11 of Cleveland's last 15 games on the road
    Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
    Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
    New Orleans Saints
    New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    New Orleans is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games
    New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    New Orleans is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games at home
    New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
    New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland


    Carolina Panthers
    Carolina is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
    Carolina is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 9 games
    Carolina is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
    Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
    Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Carolina's last 10 games when playing Atlanta
    Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    Carolina is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    Atlanta Falcons
    Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games
    Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 13 of Atlanta's last 19 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games at home
    Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
    Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 10 games when playing Carolina
    Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
    Atlanta is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Carolina
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina


    Indianapolis Colts
    Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    Indianapolis is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 9 games
    Indianapolis is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
    Indianapolis is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 16 of Indianapolis's last 23 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
    Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Washington
    Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 9 games when playing Washington
    Indianapolis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
    Washington Redskins
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games
    Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 10 games at home
    Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
    Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 9 games when playing Indianapolis
    Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis


    Philadelphia Eagles
    Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Philadelphia is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
    Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 16 of Philadelphia's last 21 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
    Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
    Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
    Tampa Bay is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games at home
    Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
    Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
    Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia


    Kansas City Chiefs
    Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City's last 10 games
    Kansas City is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
    Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Kansas City is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games on the road
    Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Kansas City's last 12 games on the road
    Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
    Kansas City is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
    Kansas City is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
    Kansas City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
    Pittsburgh Steelers
    Pittsburgh is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
    Pittsburgh is 10-2-1 SU in its last 13 games
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games
    Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Pittsburgh is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games at home
    Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
    Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing Kansas City
    Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City
    Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City


    Miami Dolphins
    Miami is 3-7-2 ATS in its last 12 games
    Miami is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Miami's last 12 games
    Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
    Miami is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing NY Jets
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing NY Jets
    Miami is 8-12-3 ATS in its last 23 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
    Miami is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
    New York Jets
    NY Jets is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    NY Jets is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
    NY Jets is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home
    NY Jets is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games at home
    NY Jets is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Miami
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing Miami
    NY Jets is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Miami
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Jets's last 8 games when playing at home against Miami


    Los Angeles Chargers
    LA Chargers is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
    LA Chargers is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games
    LA Chargers is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    LA Chargers is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games on the road
    LA Chargers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
    LA Chargers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
    LA Chargers is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
    Buffalo Bills
    Buffalo is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Buffalo is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 13 of Buffalo's last 16 games at home
    Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
    Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Chargers


    Detroit Lions
    Detroit is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games
    Detroit is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games on the road
    Detroit is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
    Detroit is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Francisco
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing San Francisco
    Detroit is 1-6-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
    Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
    San Francisco 49ers
    San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    San Francisco is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
    San Francisco is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games at home
    San Francisco is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games at home
    San Francisco is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
    San Francisco is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Detroit
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games when playing Detroit
    San Francisco is 6-1-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Detroit
    San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit


    Arizona Cardinals
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
    Arizona is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
    Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 13 of Arizona's last 18 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games on the road
    Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
    Arizona is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games when playing LA Rams
    Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
    Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
    Arizona is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Arizona's last 10 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
    Los Angeles Rams
    LA Rams is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    LA Rams is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games
    LA Rams is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 games at home
    LA Rams is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 7 games at home
    LA Rams is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
    LA Rams is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
    LA Rams is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games when playing Arizona
    LA Rams is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
    LA Rams is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Arizona
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Rams's last 10 games when playing at home against Arizona


    Oakland Raiders
    Oakland is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games
    Oakland is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Oakland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games on the road
    Oakland is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Denver
    Oakland is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing Denver
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing Denver
    Oakland is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Denver
    Oakland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
    Oakland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
    Denver Broncos
    Denver is 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 games
    Denver is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games
    Denver is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Denver is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games at home
    Denver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
    Denver is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Oakland
    Denver is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Oakland
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing Oakland
    Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland
    Denver is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Oakland
    Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland


    New England Patriots
    New England is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games
    New England is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of New England's last 16 games
    New England is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games on the road
    New England is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 7 games on the road
    New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
    Jacksonville Jaguars
    Jacksonville is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
    Jacksonville is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
    Jacksonville is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Jacksonville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Jacksonville's last 15 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games at home
    Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing New England



    Monday, September 17

    Seattle Seahawks
    Seattle is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
    Seattle is 4-7-2 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
    Seattle is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games on the road
    Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
    Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Seattle's last 9 games when playing Chicago
    Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
    Chicago Bears
    Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Chicago is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games
    Chicago is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games at home
    Chicago is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games at home
    Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
    Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Chicago's last 9 games when playing Seattle
    Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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    Tech Trends - Week 2
    Bruce Marshall

    Thursday, Sept. 13

    BALTIMORE at CINCINNATI (FOX, 8:30 p.m. ET)

    Cincy has covered 6 of last 9 meetings, though Raves were 5-2-1 vs. line away LY and won 20-0 at Paul Brown. Harbaugh also 7-1 vs. line last 8 as AFC North visitor. Balt also “over” 13-7-1 since late 2016.
    Tech Edge: Ravens and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


    Sunday, Sep. 16

    INDIANAPOLIS at WASHINGTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Colts were 10-5 as dog 2013-15 reg-season action before Luck’s various injuries past two years. Indy “over” 16-8 away in reg season since 2015. Jay Gruden “over” 24-13 since late in 2015.
    Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Colts, based on “totals” and team trends.

    CAROLINA at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Falcs have won and covered 4 of last 5 meetings. Cam however is 11-4 as dog since 2015. “Unders” 9-1 last 10 meetings, and Falcs “under” 14-5 since last season.
    Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

    MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Vikes have won and covered 4 of last 5 meetings, but Rodgers missed one and most of the other meeting last season. Note “unders” 6-1 last 7 meetings. Pack “over” 21-11 entering 2018. In case Zimmer a dog note he’s 18-9 in role in reg season with Vikings since 2014.
    Tech Edge: “Under” and Vikings, especially if dog, based on “totals” and trends.

    L.A. CHARGERS at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Bills only 4-6 as dog (1-2 in role at Orchard Park) for McDermott. Bolts rolled 54-24 LY. Bolts 8-3-1 vs. spread last 9 in 2017.
    Tech Edge: Chargers, based on team trends.

    HOUSTON at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Watson 3-0 vs. line on road in games he started last season. Texans also “over” in 5 of Watson’s last 6 starts. Titans ”over” 24-12-1 regular season games since late in 2015 campaign.
    Tech Edge: Texans and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

    KANSAS CITY at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Tomlin 6-2 vs. line last eight years in Week 2. Tomlin also 8-3 vs. points in his 11 home openers at Heinz Field. Steel entered 2018 “under” 33-17-1 since late 2014.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Steel, based on Tomlin marks.

    MIAMI at NY JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Dolphins 1-7 vs. line last 8 in 2017 away from home. Jets 7-1-1 vs. spread last 9 as host.
    Tech Edge: Jets, based on team trends.

    PHILADELPHIA at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Birds 7-3 vs. spread last ten away from Linc. Also on 17-5-1 spread run since late 2016. Bucs, however, have covered last six as home dog. Bucs also “under” 9-2 last 11 at home.
    Tech Edge: “Under,” based on team trends.

    CLEVELAND at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Brownies 7-14 vs. line last 21 away, also “over” 8-3 last 11 away. Saints “over” 22-11 reg season Superdome since 2014.
    Tech Edge: Saints and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

    ARIZONA at L.A. RAMS (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
    Rams destroyed Cards both times LY combined 65-16 score. Though LA just 4-10-1 vs. spread at Coliseum since returning in 2016 (“home” game vs. Big Red LY in London). Rams “over” 13-6 last 19 reg season games Cards just 2-6 vs. line away in 2017.
    Tech Edge: “Over” and Rams, based on “totals” and recent series trends.

    DETROIT at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
    Lions were just 11-21 as dog reg season 2014-17 for Caldwell. Detroit "over" 7-2 last nine away, 49ers “over” 9-5 last 14 at Levi’s.
    Tech Edge: 49ers and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

    NEW ENGLAND at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
    Belichick 11-4 as reg season road chalk past two seasons. Pats also “under” 12-4-1 reg season road since late 2015. Jags only 0-1 as home dog LY.
    Tech Edge: Pats and “under,” based on Belichick trends.

    OAKLAND at DENVER (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
    Broncos have won and covered 5 of last 6 as host vs. Raiders. Oakland covered only 2 of last 15 since early 2017 (one of those Ws vs. Denver). “Unders” 5-1 last six in series.
    Tech Edge: Broncos and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.

    N.Y. GIANTS at DALLAS (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
    Dallas 3-1-1 vs. line at home vs. NYG after struggling as series host prior. Last four “under” in series, and G-Men also “under” 23-10 reg season since 2016. Dallas 4-7-1 last line last 12 as reg season host.
    Tech Edge: "Under,” based on “totals” trends.


    Monday, Sept. 17

    SEATTLE at CHICAGO (ESPN, 8:25 p.m. ET)

    Pete just 8-14-1 as chalk since 2016. Bears 8-1-1 as Soldier Field dog since 2016.
    Tech Edge: Bears, especially if dog, based on team trends.

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    Injury questions swirling around Week 2

    The Packers host the Vikings on Sunday afternoon and are currently 1-point faves, meaning oddsmakers assume Rodgers will indeed play. But keep an eye on his status.

    With Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season in the books we quickly turn our attention to Week 2. So, we’re delivering the need-to-know notes for cracking the NFL odds this week, including the multitude of injuries affecting lines, a potential shootout in Pittsburgh and much more.

    BALDWIN OUT?

    Reports Monday say that Seahawks receiver Doug Baldwin has a Grade 2 partial MCL tear and is in danger of missing Week 2 at Chicago and that’s bad news for an already-thin Seattle receiving corps. If Baldwin can’t go, it’ll leave Brandon Marshall and Tyler Lockett to soak up targets from Russell Wilson.

    The Bears opened as a 3-point favorite after their crushing second-half letdown that resulted in a loss to the Packers. But really, that loss was just Aaron Rodgers being Aaron Rodgers (and a terrible blown coverage by the secondary on Randall Cobb’s winner). The takeaway for bettors from that game should be that the Bears looked good. They showed creativity and spark in Matt Nagy’s new offense and Khalil Mack proved his worth in limited snaps. We’ll dig into this game more throughout the week but grab the Bears -3 before the line grows.

    TITANS HURTING

    Tennessee tight end Delanie Walker is officially out for the season with a busted ankle while quarterback Marcus Mariota left Sunday’s game in the third quarter with an elbow injury. Mariota was replaced by Blaine Gabbert. Coach Mike Vrabel said things were “looking OK” for Mariota, but bettors really shouldn’t be worried about who plays Sunday at home against Houston. Either Mariota will be playing banged up or it's Blaine Gabbert, who just isn’t very good.

    Tennessee's offense scored just one touchdown against the Dolphins on a run by Dion Lewis. The passing game was brutal, gaining 220 yards on 38 attempts and throwing three interceptions. The Titans are a mess offensively and bettors should look at the team total Under as soon as the line opens.

    HOUSTON TO IMPROVE

    Let’s keep picking on the Titans. Houston plays its second road game in as many weeks when it travels to Tennessee after Sunday’s 27-20 loss to New England. But let’s look at two key factors from that loss. First, Houston’s offensive line got pushed around by New England’s much-improved defensive line. But with a week of practice, it should be able to give Deshaun Watson some time in the pocket after the Titans did next to nothing in terms of pressuring Ryan Tannehill on Sunday (1 sack, 2 QB hits).

    Second, Watson looked rusty. He missed numerous open receivers and it would’ve been a different game had he made a few passes. Rust was to be expected after Watson’s long layoff from his ACL tear last season but make no mistake — Watson is a stud. He’ll be better next week, and the Texans should hammer the Titans. The line isn’t out yet as oddsmakers are likely waiting on Mariota’s availability, but bettors should jump on the Houston spread as soon as it gets posted.

    SHOOTOUT COMING IN PITTSBURGH

    The Kansas City-Pittsburgh game for Sunday opened with a total of 49.5 and has already jumped to 53. From a Kansas City perspective, it’s easy to see why: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and the rest of the Chiefs offense looked deadly in lighting up the Chargers for 38 points in L.A. This is going to be one of the best offense in the NFL this season.

    But bettors might be wondering about Pittsburgh’s six turnovers against Cleveland and thinking the Under might be a decent play. Don’t. The Steelers are a completely different offense at home, especially through the air where they attempted 66 more passes and averaged 54.3 more passing yards per game than they did on the road in 2017. Pittsburgh also plans to run a lot of no-huddle in 2018, something it couldn’t do much of because of the terrible weather in Cleveland in Week 1. The total is high, but it could keep going up — grab the Over 53 before it goes any higher.

    WILL RODGERS PLAY IN WEEK 2?

    Aaron Rodgers leading the Packers to victory after getting carted off the field with a knee injury was a win for the ages. Rodgers has said he’ll play against Minnesota in Week 2, while coach Mike McCarthy isn’t so sure, saying the team “is still collecting information.” The Packers host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday afternoon and are currently a 1-point favorite with a total of 46.5, meaning oddsmakers assume Rodgers will indeed play. Keep an eye on the news feed and if there’s even the slightest hint throughout the week that Rodgers will sit, jump on the Vikings as a slight underdog.

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    NFL
    Dunkel

    Week 2


    Thursday, September 13

    Baltimore @ Cincinnati

    Game 101-102
    September 13, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Baltimore
    139.074
    Cincinnati
    130.059
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Baltimore
    by 9
    40
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Baltimore
    by 1
    44
    Dunkel Pick:
    Baltimore
    (-1); Under



    Sunday, September 16

    Indianapolis @ Washington

    Game 261-262
    September 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Indianapolis
    121.961
    Washington
    134.123
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Washington
    by 12
    48
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Washington
    by 5 1/2
    45 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Washington
    (-5 1/2); Over

    Carolina @ Atlanta


    Game 263-264
    September 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Carolina
    135.209
    Atlanta
    138.306
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Atlanta
    by 3
    41
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Atlanta
    by 6
    44 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Carolina
    (+6); Under

    Minnesota @ Green Bay


    Game 265-266
    September 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Minnesota
    138.734
    Green Bay
    126.729
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Minnesota
    by 12
    48
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Green Bay
    by 1
    46
    Dunkel Pick:
    Minnesota
    (+1); Over

    LA Chargers @ Buffalo


    Game 267-268
    September 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Chargers
    131.964
    Buffalo
    121.402
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Chargers
    by 10 1/2
    38
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Chargers
    by 7
    43
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Chargers
    (-7); Under

    Houston @ Tennessee


    Game 269-270
    September 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Houston
    00.000
    Tennessee
    00.000
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Houston

    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Houston

    Dunkel Pick:
    Houston
    ( );

    Kansas City @ Pittsburgh

    Game 271-272
    September 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Kansas City
    131.462
    Pittsburgh
    138.891
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 7 1/2
    57
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 5
    52 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Pittsburgh
    (-5); Over

    Miami @ NY Jets


    Game 273-274
    September 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Miami
    127.435
    NY Jets
    135.690
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    NY Jets
    by 8
    39
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    NY Jets
    by 3
    44
    Dunkel Pick:
    NY Jets
    (-3); Under

    Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay


    Game 275-276
    September 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Philadelphia
    144.349
    Tampa Bay
    136.353
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 8
    38
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 3
    44
    Dunkel Pick:
    Philadelphia
    (-3); Under

    Cleveland @ New Orleans


    Game 277-278
    September 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Cleveland
    119.843
    New Orleans
    138.673
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New Orleans
    by 19
    58
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New Orleans
    by 8 1/2
    49
    Dunkel Pick:
    New Orleans
    (-8 1/2); Over

    Arizona @ LA Rams


    Game 279-280
    September 16, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Arizona
    126.768
    LA Rams
    135.526
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Rams
    by 9
    43
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Rams
    by 13
    45 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Arizona
    (+13); Under

    Detroit @ San Francisco


    Game 281-282
    September 16, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Detroit
    127.484
    San Francisco
    129.700
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    San Francisco
    by 3
    52
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    San Francisco
    by 5 1/2
    47 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Detroit
    (+5 1/2); Over

    New England @ Jacksonville


    Game 283-284
    September 16, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    New England
    139.646
    Jacksonville
    135.149
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New England
    by 4 1/2
    41
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New England
    by 2
    45
    Dunkel Pick:
    New England
    (-2); Under

    Oakland @ Denver


    Game 285-286
    September 16, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Oakland
    117.649
    Denver
    132.618
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Denver
    by 15
    49
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Denver
    by 5 1/2
    45 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Denver
    (-5 1/2); Over

    NY Giants @ Dallas


    Game 287-288
    September 16, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    NY Giants
    130.817
    Dallas
    127.289
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    NY Giants
    by 3 1/2
    38
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Dallas
    by 3
    42 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    NY Giants
    (+3); Under



    Monday, September 17

    Seattle @ Chicago

    Game 289-290
    September 17, 2018 @ 8:15 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Seattle
    130.553
    Chicago
    128.899
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Seattle
    by 1 1/2
    47
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Chicago
    by 3 1/2
    43 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Seattle
    (+3 1/2); Over

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    this report will update....


    NFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 2


    Thursday
    Ravens (1-0) @ Bengals (1-0)— Cincy scored late TD in season finale LY to beat Ravens 31-27 and knock Baltimore out of playoffs; Bengals won seven of last nine series games, five of last six played here- Ravens lost 20-0 here LY. Ravens were dominant in 47-3 win in their opener, but Buffalo doesn’t have a competent QB. Bengals were outgained 380-330 in their win at Indy LW; their defense was stout in red zone (only 10 points/3 drives), and they put game away with scoop/score in last minute. Last four years, Ravens are 19-13 SU on road, 15-15-2 vs spread- they’re 7-1-1 vs spread in AFC North road games the last three years. Last five years, Bengals are 24-14-2 vs spread at home, 9-6 in divisional games.

    Sunday
    Colts (0-1) @ Redskins (1-0)— Washington ran ball for 182 yards in dominating Cardinals 24-6 in desert LW; they outgained Redbirds 429-213. Colts lost 34-23 at home to Cincy; they scored only 10 points in three drives into red zone. Home side won 12 of last 15 series games; Colts lost five of their last six visits here. Redskins won last three series games, by 14-3-22 points. Under Gruden, Washington is 7-9 as home favorites; they were 3-1 LY; last seven years, they’re 12-16 vs spread vs AFC teams. Since 2011, Indy is 18-21-1 as road underdogs; last three years, they’re 8-4 vs NFC teams. Redskins lost five of their last six home openers; they’re 2-6 vs spread last eight times they were favored in a home opener.

    Panthers (1-0) @ Falcons (0-1)— Atlanta has had extra time to prepare since losing Thursday opener in Philly; they had ball in Eagles’ red zone five times, but scored only 9 points on those drives. Panthers used 17-yard edge in field position to beat Dallas 16-8 LW; they held Cowboys to 2-11 on third down and only 232 total yards. Under Rivera, Carolina is 23-11-1 vs spread as a road underdog, 8-5 in divisional games. Under Quinn, Atlanta is 8-13 as home favorites; over is 10-6 in their home games the last two years. Falcons won four of last five series games, with all four wins by 7+ points; Carolina lost its last three visits here, by 7-15-12 points. Falcons are 12-2 vs spread in last 14 home openers;

    Vikings (1-0) @ Packers (1-0)— Aaron Rodgers’ knee is the biggest factor here; will he play? Green Bay was down 20-0 LW, rallied behind Rodgers for 24-23 win; they lost four of last five games vs Minnesota, losing LY’s games 23-10/16-0. Vikings won two of last three visits here. Minnesota had four takeaways (+3) LW in 24-16 win over the 49ers. Under is 10-4 in Vikings’ last 14 road openers. Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 20-12 vs spread on road; Last four years, Green Bay is 18-12-2 vs spread at home. Since Rodgers has been Packers’ starter, Green Bay is 6-11-1 SU in games that he hasn’t played in. If Rodgers is declared out here, Minnesota is the only possible play.

    Chargers (0-1) @ Bills (0-1)— Is Buffalo as bad as it looked LW? Before you assume Chargers win here, remember: they’re last team to lose to Cleveland. Bills’ QB Peterman is simply awful. Bills are 2-4 as home underdogs last two years- they are 8-5-1 vs spread in non-divisional road games. Over last 10 years. Chargers are 10-17-1 as road favorites. LA outgained KC 541-362 LW but was -2 in turnovers, gave up a 91-yard PR for a TD and seven plays of 20+ yards in a 38-28 loss. Over last 30 years, Chargers are 2-4 vs spread when favored in their road opener; they lost their last four road openers, all by 6 or fewer points. Buffalo is 8-3 vs spread in its last 11 home openers. Bolts won five of last six series games, winning last three by 27-12-30 points.

    Texans (0-1) @ Titans (0-1)— Home side won last four series games with Houston winning six of last eight, but they lost two visits here, 24-17/24-13. Texans averaged just 4.3 yds/pass attempt, were 2-11 on 3rd down in 27-20 loss to Patriots LW. Tennessee lost TE Walker for season LW; T Lewan, QB Mariota also got hurt- Gabbert (11-34 as NFL starter) is Titans’ backup QB. Titans lost five of last six home openers; last two years, they’re 9-5-2 vs spread at home. Under O’Brien, Texans are 7-4-1 vs spread in divisional road games. Tough to evaluate Titans’ game LW, since game had two long weather delays, took almost seven hours to play. Tennessee ran a kick back for a TD in Miami, also allowed a kick return TD.

    Chiefs (1-0) @ Steelers (0-0-1)— Pittsburgh turned ball over six times (-5) LW in Cleveland, but didn’t lose, which is unusual. Steelers won six of last seven games with the Chiefs, with six of last seven series totals 36 or fewer points. KC lost its last six visits here; their last win in Steel City was in 1986. Pitt ran ball for 159 yards, outgained Browns 472-327 LW; last five years, they’re 15-12 as home favorites, 11-7 outside AFC North. Chiefs are explosive; they averaged 9.1 yds/pass attempt LW; they had TD plays of 36-58 yards, and a 91-yard punt return TD. Steelers won 14 of last 15 home openers, are 10-3 vs spread in last 13. Under is 7-2 in their last nine home openers. KC is 11-8 as road dogs under Reid, 5-8 outside the AFC West.

    Dolphins (1-0) @ Jets (1-0)— Short week for Jets after great opener Monday; defense got its first TD since ’13, they ran punt back for a TD, had short TD drives of 32-49 yards, overcoming Darnold’s pick-6 on his first NFL pass. Jets won six of last seven games vs Dolphins, winning last three played here, by 18-4-21 points. Miami ran kick back for TD, had three INT’s (+1) in its rain-delayed win over Tennessee. Last four years, Dolphins are 9-16 vs spread as road underdogs. Under Bowles, Jets are 5-4 as home favorites. Fish covered four of their last five road openers; under is 19-5 in their last 24 road openers. Jets won six of their last seven home openers. Four of last five series totals were 47+.

    Eagles (1-0) @ Buccaneers (1-0)— Battle of backup QB’s, but if Fitzpatrick plays like he did LW, he won’t be the backup anymore. Bucs averaged 14.9 yds/pass attempt in Superdome, had three TD plays of 36+ yards, plus a defensive score- six of their nine plays of 20+ yards came on first down. Bucs also gave up 432 PY to the Saints. Philly gained only 232 yards in its 18-12 opening win; they had three extra days to prep for this. Tampa Bay was 4-0 as home underdogs LY, after being 9-23-1 the previous nine years. Since ’10, Philly is 10-17 as road favorites; under Pederson, they’re 7-9 vs spread on the road. Eagles won eight of their last nine road openers; Bucs lost four of last five home openers- over is 7-3 in their last ten home openers.

    Browns (0-0-1) @ Saints (0-1)— Cleveland had six takeaways LW and still didn’t win, but they didn’t lose, either. Browns were outgained 472-327; Taylor was sacked seven times, but Browns did have 10-yard edge in field position. Home side lost four of last five series games; Browns actually won four of last five series games, including their last three visits here. Saints were outgained 529-475 in wild 48-40 loss to Tampa Bay LW, their 5th straight Week 1 loss- they started last four seasons 0-2. Last 4+ years, NO is 9-17-1 as a home favorite; over is 22-11 in their last 33 home tilts. Last three years, Cleveland is 8-16 as road underdogs- they’re 5-11 in last 16 games as non-divisional road dogs— 11 of those 16 games went over the total. When Saints won Super Bowl, Cleveland DC Greg Williams had that job with the Saints; Payton ran score on him 49-21 two years ago, when Williams was with the Rams.

    Cardinals (0-1) @ Rams (1-0)— Short week for Rams after their methodical win in Oakland Monday nite- they outscored Raiders 23-0 in 2nd half. Road team won last six games in this series; Cardinals won last three visits to St Louis/LA. Rams whacked Cardinals 33-0/32-16 LY, with the 33-0 game in London; LA won four of last six series games. Arizona was outgained 429-213 in home loss to Redskins LW; they were 1-8 on 3rd down, had only 14 first downs. Last two years, Redbirds were 2-7 as road underdogs; they’re 5-1 vs spread in last six divisional road games (0-10 outside division). Under McVay, LA is 7-5 vs spread as a favorite. Rams won five of their last six home openers.

    Lions (0-1) @ 49ers (0-1)— Jets said they knew Lions’ play calls Monday nite, which helps explain 48-17 win, but how does Detroit fix things with long trip on short week? Lions were dismal in their opener, turning ball over five times, giving up three TD plays of 21+ yards, plus TD’s on defense/special teams. SF turned ball over four times (-3) in its 24-16 loss at Minnesota; they scored only one TD on four red zone drives. Niners are 14-2 in last 16 series games; Lions lost last 12 visits here, with last win in SF back in 1975. 49ers were 2-0 as a favorite LY under Shanahan. Last six years, Detroit is 12-18 as road underdogs. 49ers won six of last nine home openers (7-2 vs spread), last four of which stayed under.

    Monday
    Seahawks (0-1) @ Bears (0-1)— Chicago led 20-0 at Lambeau LW before Rodgers got off his golf cart and led epic comeback in 24-23 Packer win. Bears averaged only 4.0 yds/pass attempt, had only one TD in four trips to red zone. Seahawks were outgained 470-306 in 27-24 loss at Denver LW; they ran ball for only 64 yards, converted 2-12 on third down. Seattle is 7-5-2 vs spread in their last 14 games as road underdogs- they’re 11-6 in this series, but 0-2 in playoff meetings. Seahawks are 6-4 in Windy City, winning last two visits, last of which was in 2012. Last three years, Bears are 1-6 as home favorites- under is 10-6 in their last 16 home games. Seattle won five of its last six Monday night games; Bears split their last six.
    Last edited by Udog; 09-17-2018 at 06:58 PM.

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    Be careful not to overreact to these results when betting the NFL Week 2 odds
    Steve Paul

    Is Ryan Fitzpatrick the best QB in the NFL? Are the Buffalo Bills the worst team in NFL history? Those might seem like crazy questions (at least the first one does…) but if you could only base your answer on Week 1, I think is “yes” to both.

    As usual early in the season, we’re left trying to decide what’s real and what’s not as we look forward to Week 2. Let’s talk generally about regression before diving into some more specific situations.

    Regression to the mean sounds straightforward but is easy to miss. The idea is simple, after an extreme performance the next one will generally be closer to the average. Once you learn about it, you see it everywhere.

    Throw a pick 6 - maybe on your first ever NFL throw? The very next throw is likely to be better. Put up an MVP season and get put on the cover of Madden? Next season is likely to be worse. The smaller the sample or bigger the outlier, the more regression you can expect (I’m looking at you Ryan Fitzpatrick).

    Now let’s size up some of the outliers from Week 1 and what to expect in Week 2.

    Big winners/losers in Week 1

    Five teams won by more than 10 points in Week 1: should we expect their good play to continue? History would suggest not so much. Since 2002, teams that win by 10 or more points in Week 1 are just 60-58 straight up and 54-58-6 ATS in Week 2.

    Similarly, the big losers tend to perform better in Week 2. They’re only 51-66 straight up – teams that lose by 10-plus tend to be below average teams – but 57-56-4 ATS.

    The takeaway: don’t let one performance drastically affect your Week 2 projections for a team.

    Offensive explosions and defensive stalwarts

    We saw a number of offenses go crazy in Week 1, perhaps most impressively the Ryan Fitzpatrick-led Bucs. Again, these teams have a history of coming back to earth in Week 2. Since 2002, teams who scored 35 points or more in Week 1 averaged just 22.3 points in Week 2 - versus 18.8 points for teams scoring 10 points or fewer in Week 1. Those teams putting up a lot of points are better offenses, just not nearly as much as it might at first appear.

    What about the great/terrible defensive performances? I’m thinking you see the trend by now. The “great” Week 1 defenses are better than the terrible ones, but only by about three points. Don’t make the mistake of completely ignoring a one-game sample, but be careful how far you move your projections.

    Potential overreactions

    The total for the Chargers at Bills matchup has dropped from 44.5 to 43 after the Bills’ disastrous opening game. With Josh Allen starting at QB, we have a likely regression candidate against an explosive Chargers offense and a Bolts defense that struggled in Week 1. Put me down for the Over.

    The Cardinals at Rams total has dropped two points to 45 and the line has moved to -13 after Arizona struggled in Week 1. We saw Oakland move the ball well versus the Rams before Derek Carr’s second-half implosion, and I’m willing to bet David Johnson & Co. rebound a bit after a slow start.

    One move that’s warranted based on Week 1 is the Chiefs-Steelers total going up three points, from 49.5 to 52.5. For those players we don’t have much of a sample on (Pat Mahomes and James Conner for example), we should be willing to adjust more. Both looked great in Week 1, and Kansas City confirmed that its defense is as bad or worse than we expected it to be after 2017. Unless this number skyrockets out of control, I won’t be going anywhere near the Under.

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    TNF - Ravens at Bengals
    Tony Mejia

    Baltimore at Cincinnati (PK, 44.5), 8:20 pm ET, NFLN

    Since the Steelers and Browns delivered a Week 1 tie, the winner of Thursday’s contest will have a 2-0 record and sole possession of the AFC North lead. A leg up on everyone else doesn’t hurt, even this early in the game.

    So, who do you like? Take your pick. The line is telling you to.

    The Ravens are expected to do more this season after making it through the preseason healthier than they’ve entered a season in years, while the Bengals were identified as a team that would likely continue to take a step back after finishing under .500 in consecutive seasons for only the second time in Marvin Lewis’ 15-year tenure.

    His 16th season opened with a victory in Indianapolis, so with a new defensive coordinator in the highly regarded Teryl Austin and Bill Lazor back for a second season to run the offense, there’s a sense of optimism in place entering a Thursday night home opener against a Baltimore team that it has enjoyed tremendous success against over the years, winning seven of the last eight meetings.

    The Ravens led Buffalo 40-0 before finally surrendering a field goal in Week 1’s most lopsided contest, so if nothing else, the degree of difficulty increases here given the road atmosphere and the improved opposition. John Harbaugh is also working with a new defensive coordinator since Dean Pees elected to retire only to change his mind a few weeks later, joining Tennessee in the same capacity.

    Linebackers coach Don Martindale was promoted after being on staff since 2012, so there’s plenty of continuity in place. Baltimore’s defense didn’t allow a single first down until the second half and gave up 10 all game, limiting the Bills to 153 yards and a 2-for-15 showing on third down. They picked off a pair of Nathan Peterman passes and sacked Buffalo’s quarterbacks six times. Any way you slice it, the Ravens benefited from facing the NFL’s worst offense, but they’ve been doing a lot of winning so far in 2018.

    Ironically, the Ravens’ 2017 campaign ended on Dec. 31 at the hands of the Bengals, who played spoiler and dashed their rival’s playoff aspirations with a Week 17 upset. Andy Dalton hit Tyler Boyd for a 49-yard score in the final minute to produce a 31-27 upset after an Eric Weddle interception was called back due to defensive pass interference. After Joe Flacco failed to engineer a desperate comeback, fans in Baltimore watched their team walk off the field and into the offseason dejected and demoralized.

    Baltimore went a perfect 5-0 in the preseason, winning the Hall of Fame game way back on Aug. 2 and defeating its opposition by a combined 55 points. While exhibition games are meaningless, winning them all suggests that they have superior depth, remained focused and practiced like pros.

    To his credit, John Harbaugh saw the makings of this potential revival early, quickly stating that this group was putting together one of the most impressive training camps he’d ever seen. Combined with the fact they stayed healthy after seemingly being cursed with one season-ending injury after another before Week 1 over the past few years, the fact they looked so sharp in the 47-3 rout of Buffalo wasn’t entirely about how awful the Bills were.

    Over nine months after last running into the Bengals, the Ravens visit them in Cincinnati and won’t have to deal with public enemy No. 1 in Vontaze Burfict. Cincy’s standout linebacker and defensive leader is serving the second of a four-game suspension for a PED violation, so while we may see a brawl or a late hit in what’s been a consistently emotional and nasty rivalry, one of the usual suspects won’t be the instigator.

    Without Burfict, the Bengals were carved up in Indianapolis despite the fact that they put the game away by clamping down in the final quarter, scoring the last 17 points and putting the exclamation point on a comeback win by taking a Jack Doyle fumble 83 yards on a scoop-and-score from young safety Clayton Fejedelem. Cincinnati intercepted Andrew Luck once too but struggled to get off the field on third down, surrendering conversions on 11-of-17 chance to get off the field. If Flacco is able to replicate that on Thursday, it’s bound to be a long night for the home team, which sacked Luck only twice and gave up 380 yards of offense.

    Austin should get better results as the season unfolds and Burfict returns, but he’s working with most of the same guys that have been on board with the Bengals over the past few years, losing only CB Adam ‘Pacman’ Jones and DT Chris Smith from last year’s group.

    Flacco is working with a lot of new faces thanks to a revamped receiving corps and has immediately taken to the group, tossing touchdown passes to Michael Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead against the Bills.

    Cincinnati’s best offensive option remains All-Pro wideout A.J. Green, who was fed six times for 92 yards by Dalton against the Colts but fumbled twice, losing possession once. With last year’s No. 1 pick, John Ross, finally healthy and tight end Tyler Eifert having returned from a season-long back issue, Dalton has a lot of talented weapons to work with. Boyd is back too, while RB Joe Mixon looks stronger after an uneven rookie season and came up with a game-high 149 yards on 22 touches against the Colts, emerging as a valuable, productive threat with the second-most productive game of his young career. Former starter Giovanni Bernard only got one carry and one catch as a result but has plenty of experience going up against the Ravens over the years, owning two career touchdowns against them.

    Baltimore is hoping for the type of defensive effort it got in its last visit to Paul Brown Stadium, where it pulled off a 20-0 shutout in the 2017 season opener. The Ravens turned Dalton over five times, intercepting him on four occasions in addition to forcing a fumble. Dalton rebounded and threw for 222 yards and three scores in Week 17 despite an off game from Green.

    Flacco has a 19-to-23 touchdown-to-interception ration against the Bengals over his career, completing just 60 percent of his passes in contributing to his team’s recent struggles over a rival he originally won six of his first nine games against before this recent 3-8 run. He’s only won in two of his last nine visits to Paul Brown Stadium.

    While the Ravens are hoping to start 2-0 for the third straight season, Cincinnati opened 0-3 last year and hasn’t opened with consecutive victories since 2015, part of an 8-0 run that helped yield its last division title.

    Baltimore Ravens
    Season win total: 8.5 (Over -120, Under +100)
    Odds to win AFC North: 3/1 to 9/4
    Odds to win AFC: 20/1 to 20/1
    Odds to win Super Bowl: 25/1 to 20/1

    Cincinnati Bengals
    Season win total: 7 (Over -135, Under +115)
    Odds to win AFC North: 10/1 to 5/1
    Odds to win AFC: 40/1 to 40/1
    Odds to win Super Bowl: 80/1 to 40/1

    LINE MOVEMENT

    The Ravens beat up the Bills and Pittsburgh tied Cleveland as the Le'Veon Bell saga dragged on into another week, so the Westgate LV Superbook eased up on its stance on the AFC North favorite. Pittsburgh (4/5) is still favored to win the AFC North but the Ravens have moved all the way up from the 4/1 they opened at. Cincinnati also got a bump, moving up from the 10/1 to win the AFC North that they were at all offseason prior to Week 1

    The Bengals were one of the four biggest longshots to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl when odds were released, right there with the Jets, Bills and Browns. After taking down the Colts in Indianapolis, they have now moved way up. New York (60/1) and Cleveland (80/1) also saw odds improve. Buffalo moved to 1,000/1.

    As far as this matchup is concerned, the Ravens opened the week favored by one point at most shops (1.5 at the Wynn) but the Bengals moved to a 1-point chalk themselves in many places too. There are a lot of pick'ems out there (Westgate, Wynn) but William Hill has the Ravens favored by 1 while the Mirage and a few online books have Cincinnati laying a point. The total opened at 44, climbed to 44.5 at most places and now has 45 widely available at many shops.

    Shop away for a point or take a stab at the money line since Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are at -105/-110 depending on where you look. Team totals for both are available in the 21.5/22 range.

    INJURY CONCERNS

    Burfict is suspended for Cincinnati, while Baltimore is without corner Jimmy Smith for the first four games and won't have Maurice Canady to help the cause since he's been ruled out with a thigh injury.

    Baltimore will also be without DT Willie Henry (abdominal) and put veteran RB Kenneth Dixon on IR after he suffered a knee injury against the Bills. Alex Collins and Buck Allen should capably handle the workload to anchor the ground game.

    The Bengals may be missing LB Preston Brown (ankle), who came up with the interception of Luck in Week 1 in his first game since signing a one-year deal after leaving Buffalo.

    RECENT MEETINGS (Cincinnati 7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS last eight; UNDER 6-4)

    12/31/17 Cincinnati 31-27 at Baltimore (CIN +8, 40)
    9/10/17 Baltimore 20-0 at Cincinnati (BAL +2.5, 41.5)
    1/1/17 Cincinnati 27-10 vs. Baltimore (CIN +2.5, 40.5)
    11/27/16 Baltimore 19-14 vs. Cincinnati (BAL -3.5, 41.5)
    1/3/16 Cincinnati 24-16 vs. Baltimore (BAL +9.5, 41.5)
    9/27/15 Cincinnati 28-24 at Baltimore (CIN +2.5, 44.5)
    10/26/14 Cincinnati 27-24 vs. Baltimore (CIN +3, 44.5)
    9/7/14 Cincinnati 23-16 at Baltimore (CIN +2, 43)
    12/29/13 Cincinnati 34-17 vs. Baltimore (CIN -7, 43)
    11/10/13 Baltimore 20-17 (OT) vs. Cincinnati (BAL -2, 44)

    NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

    The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 3 currently has the Ravens as a 5.5-point road favorite against Denver. The Bengals will be on the road in Carolina and have been made a 4.5-point underdog.

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    NFL Underdogs: Week 2 pointspread picks and predictions
    Jason Logan

    Oddsmakers tend to shy away from a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest. Unless that one-legged man is Aaron Rodgers.

    The Green Bay Packers quarterback proved he’s just as dangerous with one good wheel as he is with two, bringing the Cheeseheads back from the dead to sting the Chicago Bears in the fourth quarter last Sunday night.

    And now, Green Bay – with Rodgers’ health reaching Robert Stack-levels of mystery – is a slim home favorite hosting the Minnesota Vikings in Week 2.

    Rarely, do NFL underdog bettors get to play on a quality team like the Vikings. And even more rare is that quality squad taking on an injured playcaller with a so-so team around them. And even more, more rare – like steak tartar and a sensible Twitter debate – has that elite team been responsible for sidelining said quarterback with injury just last season.

    Minnesota getting the points is the "talking rainbow unicorn" of underdog bets – at least two weeks into the young 2018 season (last year’s was the Colts +1 at home to Cleveland. Indianapolis won 31-28).

    It’s not only what the Vikes defense can do against a less-than-mobile Rodgers that has me seeing purple. I love what I saw from Kirk Cousins and his receivers in Week 1’s win over San Francisco. Minnesota’s $84-million-dollar man was completely in sync with his targets and even when plays broke down and Cousins was under pressure, his guys knew where to be and he knew where to find them.

    It’s good to see the Vikings and Packers getting their money’s worth out of both QBs in this game – there’s potentially $264 million under center Sunday – but I’m not much for buying damaged goods. No matter how hard that one-legged man can kick.

    Pick:
    Minnesota +1

    Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-3, 43.5)

    Sam Darnold’s coming-out party on Monday Night Football is overshadowing what the Dolphins did in Week 1. Miami grabbed a 27-20 victory versus Tennessee as a 1-point home dog in a very weird and wild game, that challenged a Red Sox-Yankees ALCS Game 7 in terms of length.

    The Fins got a good/bad performance from Ryan Tannehill but looked strong on the ground, amounting 120 yards rushing from Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake. That’s pretty good considering this Titans defense hung its hat on stopping the run last season (only 3.6 yards against per carry).

    The Jets' run stopping is worse than Tennessee. Much worse. Sure, New York limited the Lions to only 39 yards on the ground Monday, but Detroit had to abandon the run after falling behind. New York did little to stop opponents’ running backs in the preseason and allowed 118 yards against on the ground per game last year.

    I also expect the Miami pass rush to show up after posting a goose egg in the sacks column versus Tennessee. Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn will rebound in Week 2, and Darnold’s shooting star will fall to earth and leave a nasty grease stain on the grass at MetLife Stadium.

    Pick:
    Miami +3

    New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 42.5)

    Odell Beckham and Saquon Barkley rolled over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1. Now, if they could just get the rest of the Giants to come along. New York received 74 percent of its offensive gains from those two players in a 20-15 loss in Week 1 – a game in which the G-Men outgained the Jags by 19 yards.

    Those two stars will shine under the Sunday Night Football spotlight in Week 2, coming to AT&T Stadium to face the one-dimensional Dallas Cowboys. That said, Dallas will be more dynamic with the football – having a week to add new wrinkles and iron out others. That shouldn’t be too hard, considering the Cowboys' stagnent mud puddle of a playbook spawned legions of blood-sucking mosquitos but only eight points in Week 1.

    I have a gut feeling that the Giants are going to sell a shit ton of No. 13 and No. 26 jerseys after this Sunday nighter, if they weren’t already.

    Pick: N.Y Giants +3

    Last week: 2-1
    Season: 2-1

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    Top 6 picks in the Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)

    1) Houston even (1,514)

    2) NJ Giants +3 (933)

    3) Pittsburgh -4 (910)

    4) New England -1 (902)

    5) Philadelphia -3.5 (808)

    6) LA Chargers -7 (781)

    Season record: 4-1-1

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    Is Rodgers good to go (and worth backing), and Week 2's NFL odds and anlaysis

    Week 1 of the NFL season was full of surprises and Week 2 is shaping up no different. So we're here to deliver you our need-to-know betting notes for cracking the NFL odds on a Sunday full of intriguing matchups. It's sounding like Aaron Rodgers will suit up for the Packers, but how effective will he be against an elite Vikings defense? Will Leonard Fournette miss the Jaguars AFC title rematch with Patriots? And Cleveland sends Josh Gordon packing. All that and more in the Week's best NFL odds analysis.

    VIKINGS VS PACKERS (-1, 46.5)

    RODGERS GOOD TO GO


    In news that should surprise no one, Aaron Rodgers (knee) is expected to suit up for a big divisional battle against Minnesota. Green Bay’s best receiver, Davante Adams (shoulder), is also questionable and has been limited in practice but is also expected to play. That means that Green Bay’s top-two offensive threats haven’t really practiced all week.

    On the other side of the field, the Minnesota Vikings are healthy and are more talented at pretty much every position except QB. But Kirk Cousins looked solid last week against San Fran and seems to have developed instant chemistry with Adam Thielen.

    Minnesota is a better team. Aaron Rodgers isn’t healthy. Take the Vikings plus-1.


    BROWNS VS SAINTS (-9.5, 49)

    GORDON SENT PACKING


    The enthusiasm around Cleveland and its chances of pulling off an upset in New Orleans came crashing down on Saturday afternoon when it was announced that Josh Gordon wouldn’t play due to a hamstring injury. Then things got even crazier in Cleveland when GM John Dorsey said late on Saturday that the team was cutting Gordon.

    We had given the Under for his receiving yards total earlier in the week, so now let’s look at how Gordon’s absence can profit bettors. Casual fans will look to pile on Jarvis Landry and perhaps even rookie Antonio Callaway. But the sharp play here could be with tight end David Njoku. The second-year man out of Miami is a monster at 6’4”, 246 pounds and he’s one of those guys who just looks bigger and stronger than defenders who try to cover him. Last week, with Gordon in the lineup, Tyrod Taylor targeted Njoku seven times, second-most on the team behind Landry. Njoku should get even more looks on Sunday as the Browns try to keep up offensively with the high-powered New Orleans offense. Bettors should lean towards the Over 35 for Njoku’s receiving yards.

    TAYLOR TO RUN

    Let’s look at one more way that bettors can profit on Gordon’s absence. Last week, New Orleans gave up 36 rushing yards to Tampa Bay quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. In his six games played in 2017, Fitzpatrick had just 78 total rushing yards. Cleveland quarterback Tyrod Taylor, on the other hand, is a great rushing quarterback who had 77 yards on the ground in Week 1, including three runs of 15-plus yards. As mentioned above, the Browns are going to have to throw a lot to try and keep pace with the Saints. That means lots of drop backs for Taylor — and lots of opportunities to run. This bet was looking nice even before it was announced that Gordon was out, and now that Taylor is down one of his top receivers, let’s pile on the Over for Taylor’s rushing yards total.

    BREES TO TORCH THE BROWNS

    The Saints’ loss last week to Tampa Bay was the most surprising result of the week. But their offense was spectacular, with Drew Brees going 37 of 45 for 439 yards and three touchdowns. Yes, they were forced into a lot of passes because they were playing from behind all afternoon, but there are a couple of reasons to think that Brees is going to air it out again this weekend against the Browns.

    For one, New Orleans running back Mark Ingram is still out, and his replacement, Mike Gillislee, lost trust by losing a fumble and having it returned for a touchdown. Then there’s the Browns defense, which gave up 335 passing yards, in a storm, to a quarterback (Ben Roethlisberger) who threw three interceptions and lost two fumbles. Don’t be surprised to see Brees go heavy with the passing game again, making Over 300 passing yards a solid bet.


    PATRIOTS VS JAGUARS (+1.5, 44)

    FOURNETTE OUT?


    Reports late Saturday say that Leonard Fournette isn’t expected to play against New England. The Jags signaled that this was the case when they promoted running back Brandon Wilds from the practice squad. We talked earlier in the week about taking the Jags team total Under 22.5 because Blake Bortles doesn’t have much to throw to and how Bill Belichick excels at taking away an opposing team’s top threat.

    Now, that top threat (Fournette) is not playing and the Jags’ team total has dropped to 20.5. T.J. Yeldon will replace Fournette and bettors can be sure that Belichick has prepared his squad for the possibility that Fournette wouldn’t go. It’s going to be hard for the Jags to get into the end zone against a new-and-improved Patriots defense. We’re doubling down on the Jaguars’ team total of 20.5 and taking the Patriots at -1.

    DORSETT BREAKING OUT?

    Rob Gronkowski is the best tight end in football, at least according to everyone except Jags cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey told ESPN, “I don’t think Gronk’s good” and that’s bulletin board material for Gronk and the Pats. Everyone is going to be paying attention to Gronk vs. Ramsey on Sunday, so let’s look elsewhere for a winner.

    Pats receiver Phillip Dorsett is a former first-round pick that hasn’t yet lived up to his draft hype but he’s still just 25 years old. He didn’t do anything last year, but most young players don’t in their first year in Bill Belichick’s system. Last week, he posted a nice line by catching all seven of his targets for 66 yards and a touchdown. Earning Tom Brady’s trust is crucial in New England, and you do that by catching the ball 100 percent of the time it’s thrown to you, as Dorsett did last week. With Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel both questionable for Sunday, Brady is going to need offensive options. Bettors should jump on the Over for Dorsett’s receptions total of three and his receiving yards total of 50.


    CHIEFS VS STEELERS (-5, 53.5)

    SHOOTOUT COMING IN PITTSBURGH


    The Kansas City-Pittsburgh game for Sunday opened with a total of 49.5 and has already jumped to 53. From a Kansas City perspective, it’s easy to see why: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and the rest of the Chiefs offense looked deadly in lighting up the Chargers for 38 points in L.A. This is going to be one of the best offense in the NFL this season.

    But bettors might be wondering about Pittsburgh’s six turnovers against Cleveland and thinking the Under might be a decent play. Don’t. The Steelers are a completely different offense at home, especially through the air where they attempted 66 more passes and averaged 54.3 more passing yards per game than they did on the road in 2017. Pittsburgh also plans to run a lot of no-huddle in 2018, something it couldn’t do much of because of the terrible weather in Cleveland in Week 1. The total is high, but it could keep going up — grab the Over 53 before it goes any higher.

    HADEN OUT

    Earlier this week we mentioned that the Over 53 in the Chiefs-Steelers game was a sharp play. This total has since moved to 53.5 and is looking even juicier as it was announced on Friday that Steelers cornerback Joe Haden is doubtful to play. The math here is simple: When Haden played last season, the Steelers defense gave up 6.9 yards per attempt; when he didn’t, that number ballooned to 8.5. Tyreek Hill’s receiving total is likely inflated after his unreal Week 1 performance but the rapport he’s showing with Patrick Mahomes in undeniable. Including the preseason, Hill has 21 catches for 353 yards and three touchdowns on 24 targets from Mahomes. Let’s ride it while it’s hot and take the Over 85 on Hill’s receiving yards total.


    TEXANS VS TITANS (+3, 43)

    TWO QBS IN TENNESSEE?


    Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota hurt his elbow in last week’s loss to the Dolphins. On Wednesday, we learned he was cleared to play this week. Then on Friday, there are reports that both Mariota and backup Blaine Gabbert are expected to see the field against Houston. What is happening here?

    It has only been one week, so we try not to overreact, but the Titans already look like a dumpster fire. Mariota looked awful last week before his injury, Gabbert looked OK but he is still Blaine Gabbert, and now rookie head coach Mike Vrabel is telling us he’s going to try a quarterback rotation. Come on, Mike. This isn't college football.

    There’s also the fact that both Titans’ starting tackles will miss the game and that the defense gave up 120 rushing yards to the Dolphins last week, 61 of those to 35-year-old Frank Gore. Houston -3 is a decent play right now (and if you like it, jump on it before the line gets even bigger), but the Titans team total Under 19.5 might be the better bet.


    PANTHERS AT FALCONS (-6, 44)

    NEWTON RUNS WILD


    Let’s double down on the Falcons-Panthers game by looking at why Cam Newton should have a nice day against Atlanta, especially on the ground. Newton picked up chunks of rushing yards with ease against the Cowboys, finishing the afternoon with 13 carries for 58 yards and a touchdown. He ran a lot of read-options with Christian McCaffrey against Dallas and, for the most part, made smart decisions on when to keep it.

    New offensive coordinator Norv Turner has said that he’s going to let Newton be himself this season. That means he’s going to let Newton use his legs a lot and that should result in a lot of rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. In fact, Newton might be extra motivated to call his own number on a read-option this Sunday after McCaffrey fumbled at the five against Dallas last weekend. We’re betting on Newton to run for a touchdown at any time against Atlanta.

    FREEMAN HURT

    Falcons running back Devonta Freeman will miss Sunday’s game versus Carolina after hurting his knee against Philly in Week 1. That means Tevin Coleman gets the start — and likely a lot of touches. Last week, Coleman had just 10 touches but still managed to score Atlanta’s only touchdown. In his career, Coleman has played in just three games without Freeman, but in those games, he’s put up 250 yards and three touchdowns on 57 carries. We noted on Wednesday that the Over 44.5 looked nice for this game, and with Coleman slated for 17+ touches, let’s back him to score a touchdown at any time.

    OLSEN OUT WITH BROKEN FOOT

    Carolina received bad news earlier this week when it was revealed that tight end Greg Olsen fractured his foot and is out for at least a few weeks. So how can bettors profit off this news? Well, Olsen suffered the same injury last season and while he was out receiver Devin Funchess benefited the most, averaging 7.7 targets per game. In fact, last year in Week 9 against this week's opponent, Atlanta (with Olsen out), Funchess caught five passes for 86 yards. Funchess had just three catches for 41 yards in the opener, but last year clearly told us that Newton looks his way when Olsen is off the field. Let’s bet Funchess to go Over 55 passing yards.


    CARDINALS AT RAMS (-13, 44.5)

    SEALS-JONES ON THE CUSP


    Arizona’s offense looked miserable last week at home to Washington and now the Cardinals travel to L.A. to face one of the best teams in the NFL in the Rams. Arizona’s Sam Bradford experiment should be over after just one game — a game where he went 20 of 34 for 153 yards for an average of 4.5 yards per completion. Please, Steven Wilks, let Josh Rosen play.

    It’s tough to get behind any bets favoring the Cardinals offense, but here’s something that can’t be ignored: Tight end Ricky Seals-Jones appears to be on the cusp of becoming a solid player in the league. He played 92 percent of the snaps last week and stayed in to block just once on passing plays. Bradford looked his way six times and Seals-Jones hauled in three of those targets for 19 yards. If the Cardinals get down big against the Rams, which could very well happen, Bradford will be throwing a lot, and Seals-Jones will get his catches. Because of Bradford, you must be wary of the total yards, but the Over for Seals-Jones receptions total looks like a solid bet.

    GOFF IS GREAT BUT...

    The Rams are the biggest favorites of the week at -13 over Arizona. Casual bettors would probably assume this means a lot of offense in the game and would lean towards the Overs. But let’s look at the two scenarios in which this game will probably play out.

    The first is where the Rams crush the Cardinals, much like they crushed the Raiders last week. Once they had a lead against the Raiders, it was a heavy dose of Todd Gurley and Jared Goff wound up throwing for only 233 yards.

    The second scenario is a close game, but this only happens if Arizona keeps the Rams off the field for extended chunks of time. Arizona knows it can’t win a shootout with the high-flying Rams — their quarterback is Sam Bradford, after all. In this scenario, it would be a heavy dose of David Johnson and Goff would spend a lot of time standing around on the sideline. Either way, it doesn’t seem like Goff is headed towards a big game. Let’s grab the Under for Goff's passing yards at 260.


    LIONS AT 49ERS (-6, 48.5)

    KITTLE CONNECTING WITH JIMMY G


    San Francisco's second-year tight end George Kittle is underrated and is in the middle of breaking out. Over his past four games, dating back to last season, he has had games of 90, 100, 42, and 52 receiving yards. Last week, he had a team-high nine targets on just 49 snaps. This week, the 49ers host a Detroit defense that got smoked by the Jets and gave up three catches on three targets to tight end Neal Sterling last week. Kittle could be in for a big game and bettors should look hard at Over 46 for his receiving yards.

    GOODWIN WON’T PLAY

    One of Jimmy Garoppolo's favorite targets in the preseason won’t be on the field on Sunday as 49ers receiver Marquise Goodwin has been ruled out with a quad injury. Goodwin played just 17 snaps against Minnesota before leaving with the injury. This means that Dante Pettis will make his first-career NFL start and he could see a lot of balls thrown in his direction. Pettis immediately benefited from Goodwin’s injury in Week 1, seeing six balls thrown his way and hauling in two of them for 61 yards and a touchdown. The Niners should have no problem throwing the ball against a Lions defense that looked in Week 1 like it’s one of the worst units in the league. Let’s take the Over for Pettis’ receptions total.


    RAIDERS AT BRONCOS (-6.5, 45.5)

    RAIDERS D-LINE HURTING


    The Oakland Raiders are dealing with some injury issues to the interior of their defensive line as defensive tackles Justin Ellis (foot) and P.J. Hall (ankle) both missed practice on Wednesday, while defensive tackle Brian Price (hamstring) was limited. When asked about the injuries on Wednesday, coach John Gruden responded with, “I’ve had better days.”

    The Raiders struggled mightily to stop the run against the Rams on Monday night with Todd Gurley running for 108 yards on 20 carries and there’s no reason to think they’ll be any better on Sunday in Denver. The Broncos ran all over Seattle in Week 1 with rookies Royce Freeman and Philip Lindsey posting identical lines of 15 carries for 71 yards. Both looked great and both will get touches against the Raiders, but we’re leaning towards Freeman because he out-snapped Lindsey 29-26 and has the pedigree as a third-round pick. The Raiders’ D-line is a mess and bettors should be looking hard at Freeman rushing for Over 60 yards.

    COOPER IN A DEEP SLUMP

    Raiders wide receiver Amari Cooper was a popular candidate for a rebound season under Jon Gruden, but his 2018 campaign got off to a rough start on Monday Night Football, catching 1-of-3 targets for nine yards. He also added a nine-yard rush. Gruden sounds a bit frustrated with his most talented wideout, saying it’s going to be “easier said than done” when asked how he would motivate Cooper.

    Gruden did what he could to get Cooper going by moving him around the formation and he lined up in the slot 45.2 percent of the time against the Rams, as compared to 21.8 percent last season. Now Cooper heads to Denver to play in altitude against a Broncos defense that allowed just seven completions to wide receivers in their win over Seattle. Cooper’s slump is set to continue Sunday, so take the Under on his receiving yards total.


    SEAHAWKS AT BEARS (-3, 43.5)

    THE LEGION OF BOOM IS DEAD


    We talked earlier this week about Doug Baldwin’s injury and how the Bears at -3 over Seattle might be a smart play. The spread has since grown to Chicago -3.5 so let’s look at another way bettors can profit off of this game. The total is set at 43, a relatively low number. On paper, the general consensus would be that both teams have great defenses: Seattle is known for its Legion of Boom and the Bears are always tough at home and just got Khalil Mack.

    But let’s look at what happened last week. Seattle got torched for 470 offensive yards by Case Keenum and two rookie running backs in Denver last week. This is not the same Seattle defense. But the offense still looked solid with 309 yards and 24 points and Russell Wilson is still one of the best QBs in the league. Chicago’s offense looked incredible in the first half as coach Matt Nagy’s creativity had Mitch Trubisky throwing to wide-open receivers early. In the second half, the offense sputtered but the defense couldn’t stop a one-legged Aaron Rodgers. There could be some points in this one and the Over 43 looks sharp.

    LOOK TO LOCKETT

    Already this week we’ve talked about how Chicago at -3 over Seattle looked solid (the spread has since moved to -3.5) and how the Over 43 could also be a good play. Let’s look to the Monday nighter once more for a prop that looks like a winner: Tyler Lockett Over 60 receiving yards.

    Chicago’s defense looked great for the first half last week. Then it couldn’t stop a one-legged Aaron Rodgers, who led the Packers to three fourth-quarter touchdowns and the comeback win. But what’s most important here was how Packers slot receiver Randall Cobb gashed the Bears for nine receptions and 142 yards. Sure, 75 of those yards came on one play, but Cobb still had a solid day if you take that one play away. Lockett is going to line up in the slot against the Bears and is going to get a ton of targets with Doug Baldwin sitting out. Let’s take the Over 60 on Lockett’s receiving yards total.

    BALDWIN OUT?

    Reports Monday say that Seahawks receiver Doug Baldwin has a Grade 2 partial MCL tear and is in danger of missing Week 2 at Chicago and that’s bad news for an already-thin Seattle receiving corps. If Baldwin can’t go, it’ll leave Brandon Marshall and Tyler Lockett to soak up targets from Russell Wilson.

    The Bears opened as a 3-point favorite after their crushing second-half letdown that resulted in a loss to the Packers. But really, that loss was just Aaron Rodgers being Aaron Rodgers (and a terrible blown coverage by the secondary on Randall Cobb’s winner). The takeaway for bettors from that game should be that the Bears looked good. They showed creativity and spark in Matt Nagy’s new offense and Khalil Mack proved his worth in limited snaps. We’ll dig into this game more throughout the week but grab the Bears -3 before the line grows.

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    Week 2 - Sunday Blitz
    Kevin Rogers

    Vikings at Packers – 1:00 PM EST

    An important NFC North game in Week 2 takes place at Lambeau Field with one extremely important question. Will Packers’ star quarterback Aaron Rodgers suit up or sit out after suffering a knee injury last week against Chicago? Green Bay seemed dead in the water after trailing, 20-0 and Rodgers carted off, but he returned in the second half to lead a monumental rally in a 24-23 victory.

    Rodgers hopes to play to give the Packers an opportunity at not only a 2-0 overall record, but 2-0 mark inside the division. The last time Rodgers faced the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium last season, Minnesota linebacker Anthony Barr drilled the two-time league MVP into the ground and broke Rodgers’ collarbone. The end result of that hit was Rodgers being sidelined for nine games and the Vikings capturing the NFC North title.

    Minnesota heads to Lambeau Field following a 24-16 victory over San Francisco in the season opener. The Vikings grabbed the cover as six-point favorites, while causing four 49ers’ turnovers, including a pick-six on San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Kirk Cousins put together a solid debut for Minnesota by throwing for 244 yards and two touchdowns as the Vikings improved to 10-1 in their last 11 home contests.

    The Vikings compiled a 6-2 record on the highway last season, which included a 16-0 shutout of the Packers at Lambeau Field in December. Minnesota has won and covered four of the past five matchups in the series, including two of the past three trips to Green Bay. The UNDER has been a strong look in this series as well by hitting in seven of the last eight meetings.

    Best Bet: Vikings 27, Packers 21

    Eagles (-3, 44) at Buccaneers – 1:00 PM EST

    It wasn’t pretty, but following a weather delay, the defending champion Eagles raised their Super Bowl banner and knocked off the Falcons last Thursday, 18-12. With Carson Wentz still sidelined, Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles overcame a subpar performance (19-of-34 for 117 yards and interception) to lift Philadelphia to its second low-scoring home win over Atlanta in 2018 after eliminating the Falcons in the second round last season.

    The Eagles moved to 12-1 in their last 13 home contests, but travel to Florida this week to face a Buccaneers’ squad that shocked the Saints as 10 ½-point underdogs last week, 48-40. Ryan Fitzpatrick torched the New Orleans’ defense for 417 yards and four touchdown passes, while both Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson recorded at least 145 yards receiving and a total of three touchdown catches. Tampa Bay picked up its third consecutive opening day win, unfortunately the Bucs haven’t started 2-0 since 2010.

    The Eagles have slumped to a 2-4 ATS record under Doug Pederson as a road favorite, but Philadelphia won six of eight games away from Lincoln Financial Field last season. The Bucs have covered in four of their past five opportunities as a home underdog since 2016, while the Eagles are traveling to Tampa Bay for the first time since 2013. In the last meeting in 2015 at the Linc, the Bucs steamrolled the Eagles, 45-17 as seven-point underdogs, led by Jameis Winston’s five touchdown passes.

    Best Bet: Eagles 24, Buccaneers 17

    Patriots (-1, 45) at Jaguars – 4:25 PM EST

    Jacksonville nearly pulled off the upset of New England in the AFC Championship this past January, but fell apart in the second half of a 24-20 defeat. The Jaguars managed to cover as 7 ½-point underdogs, but missed out on the first Super Bowl appearance in franchise history, while Tom Brady hit Danny Amendola for a pair of touchdown tosses in the fourth quarter.

    Fast forward eight months later and the two squads hook up again, this time at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. Both teams captured opening week wins, while the Jaguars won in Week 1 for the second straight year following a dry spell in openers from 2012 through 2016. The Jaguars held off the Giants last week, 20-15 as New York’s lone touchdown came on rookie Saquon Barkley’s 68-yard touchdown in the fourth. Jacksonville picked up the cover as three-point favorites, although running back Leonard Fournette left with a hamstring injury as the former LSU star is a game-time decision on Sunday.

    The Patriots held off the Texans, 27-20 to barely cash as 6 ½-point favorites, although New England jumped out to a 21-6 halftime lead. Brady threw three touchdown passes in the first half to three different receivers, including an early hookup with tight end Rob Gronkowski, who finished with 123 yards receiving.

    New England enters Sunday’s action riding a five-game winning streak in Week 2 action, while winning three of those games on the road by an average of 15.6 points per game. Jacksonville covered in five of seven opportunities as an underdog last season, while winning six of eight home contests. Brady has never lost to Jacksonville in his career in eight starts since 2003, including two victories at TIAA Bank Field.

    Best Bet: Patriots 31, Jaguars 17

    BEST TOTAL PLAY (1-0 last week, 1-0 this season)

    UNDER 53 – Chiefs at Steelers


    Easily drilled the UNDER last week between the Redskins and Cardinals and going that same route again this week. These two AFC rivals have played every season for the last four years and even twice in 2016. Five of those six matchups have finished UNDER the total, while the Chiefs have failed to bust 16 in the last three meetings. Yes, Patrick Mahomes was not under center for Kansas City in those games as the former Texas Tech standout threw four touchdown passes in last week’s 38-28 victory over the Chargers. However, Los Angeles was limited to 12 points in the first three quarters, while Pittsburgh held a 21-7 fourth quarter lead at Cleveland before the Browns scored two late touchdowns to ultimately tie the Steelers.

    TRAP OF THE WEEK

    Are the Bills really as bad as they looked last week in a 47-3 blowout loss to the Ravens? Buffalo returns home to host Los Angeles as the Chargers had high expectations placed on them heading into the season. The Lightning Bolts are 0-1 out of the gate after losing at Kansas City, but did rout the Bills last season by 30 points at home. Los Angeles opened as a 7 ½-point favorite at Buffalo this week, as rookie Josh Allen gets the start at quarterback for the Bills. Don’t be too fast to jump on the Chargers, as the Bolts have lost six of their last seven road September games.

    BIGGEST LINE MOVE

    The 49ers opened as three-point home favorites against the Lions after San Francisco lost at Minnesota in Week 1. However, that line skyrocketed to San Francisco laying six points following Detroit’s abysmal effort in last Monday’s blowout loss to the Jets. The Lions host the Patriots next Sunday night, as Detroit heads to the Bay Area off a 5-3 road record last season.

    BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

    Three teams are playing on the road for the second straight week to open the season (Texans, Chiefs, and Seahawks). Kansas City was the lone team to win while Houston and Seattle came up. Why is this important? Teams don’t normally start 2-0 when both games are on the highway as only three squads have conquered this gauntlet since 2008 (2009 Vikings, 2010 Dolphins, and 2013 Dolphins). Under Pete Carroll, the Seahawks have gone 0-2 twice with both games on the road, as Seattle tries to buck that trend on Monday at Chicago.

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    Total Talk - Week 2
    Chris David

    Week 1 Recap

    The 765 points scored in Week 1, an average of 47.8 points per game, was the third highest all-time scoring opening weekend according to the NFL. Helping that cause was 12 return touchdowns and half of them came from pick-six interceptions. Despite the outburst, total bettors saw solid two-way results as the ‘over’ produced a 9-7 record. Savvy bettors leaning high in the second-half managed to turn a nice profit (10-6) as well.

    2018 Total Results - Game & Halves

    O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
    Week 1 9-7 7-9 10-6

    O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
    Year-to-Date 9-7 7-9 10-6

    My handicapping style leans on seasonal trends and I like to incorporate them as they develop. For now, a couple early angles to watch are the ‘over’ leans in divisional games and contests played indoors. The Coastal category is teams traveling East to West and vice versa. Last week, the Redskins-Cardinals game was an easy ‘under’ ticket and the only game featured in this category for Week 2 is between the Chargers and Bills.

    2018 Results - Other

    O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
    Week 1 2-2 4-0 3-1 0-1

    O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
    Year-to-Date 2-2 4-0 3-1 0-1

    Line Moves and Public Leans

    Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 1 as of Saturday morning per BookMaker.eu.

    L.A. Chargers at Buffalo: 44 ½ to 42 ½
    Houston at Tennessee: 45 to 43
    Kansas City at Pittsburgh: 50 ½ to 53
    Arizona at L.A. Rams: 46 ½ to 44 ½

    Listed below are the five largest leans per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

    Dolphins-Jets: 92% Under
    Texans-Titans: 92% Under
    Raiders-Broncos: 88% Over
    Cardinals-Rams: 87% Under
    Patriots-Jaguars: 86% Under

    Divisional Matchups

    The divisional action picks up the pace in Week 2 with eight matchups and that includes Thursday’s ‘over’ result between the Bengals and Ravens. Including that outcome, bettors should note that the first five divisional games this season have leaned to the high side.

    Carolina at Atlanta:
    The ‘under’ went 2-0 in this series last season with a combined 37 and 32 points posted. We could be in for another dogfight here and unfortunately key injuries have been the headliner for this week’s matchup. Both clubs saw the ‘under’ connect easily in Week 1.

    Minnesota at Green Bay:
    Very tough game to handicap due to the status of Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. If he plays, expect the total to be in the neighborhood of 46 to 47. If he doesn’t, then take away six points perhaps more. The ‘under’ has gone 6-1 in the last seven encounters, which includes a 2-0 record from last season.

    Houston at Tennessee:
    Another game affected by injuries, more so on the Tennessee roster. Each club scored 20 points in their Week 1 loss and both left points off the board. The total has been a stalemate the last two seasons (2-2) with the ‘over’ hitting in both games from Houston while the ‘under’ went 2-0 in Nashville. Texans QB Deshaun Watson only faced the Titans once last season and he helped them post a 57-14 win at Houston.

    Miami at N.Y. Jets:
    The ‘over’ is on a 4-1 run in this series and we’ve seen the winner bust 30 points three times during that span. Miami’s defense was suspect on the road (27.4 PPG) last season but they also had trouble scoring (12.4 PPG). New York posted 48 at Detroit in Week 1 with help from the defense and special teams. It’s hard to imagine the Jets posting another crooked number.

    Arizona at L.A. Rams:
    No solid trends for this matchup with the last 10 encounters breaking even (5-5) for total bettors. Los Angeles did post 33 and 32 in two blowout wins over the Cardinals last season and another romp is expected on Sunday. The Rams were great on the road last season but only 3-5 at home. However, Los Angeles did post 46-9 and 33-7 wins over the Colts and Texans respectively when expected to act like a bully. Déjà vu here?

    Oakland at Denver:
    The ‘under’ has gone 5-1 in the last six meetings and we only saw one game surpass 40 combined points during this span. This week’s total listed at 46, which seems high based on the current head-to-head trend. However, both the Broncos (470 yards) and Raiders (395 yards) moved the ball in Week 1.

    N.Y. Giants at Dallas: (See Below)

    AFC vs. NFC

    Two of the higher totals in Week 2 takes place in non-conference games.

    Indianapolis at Washington:
    The return of Andrew Luck at QB for the Colts certainly gives them a chance to score on a weekly basis but the Indy defense still appears to be shaky. Washington controlled the clock (38-22 minutes) against Arizona last week and only had nine drives. If you’re getting TDs, that style helps ‘over’ bettors but the pace definitely leans to the ‘under.’ For what it’s worth, the ‘over’ has gone 8-1 in the past nine encounters between the pair.

    Cleveland at New Orleans: The Saints were diced up in Week 1 and the books are expecting a solid rebound. New Orleans on a 7-3 ‘over’ in its last 10 at home and that includes a 2-0 record versus AFC teams in the Superdome. Cleveland saw the ‘over’ go 3-1 in four games versus the NFC last season and even though the Browns earned a tie in Week 1, the defense allowed 472 yards to Pittsburgh. These teams met in Week 2 of the 2014 regular season and Cleveland stunned New Orleans 26-24 as a five-point home ‘dog while the ‘over’ (49) barely cashed on a late field goal.

    Under the Lights

    Including Thursday’s result between the Ravens and Bengals, the ‘over’ is 3-2 in this year’s primetime games.

    SNF - N.Y. Giants at Dallas: What was once an automatic ‘over’ wager in this matchup has now become a strong ‘under’ lean. The last four meetings have gone to the low side and two of the games during this span were played on Sunday Night and those results ended 19-3 and 10-7. It’s hard to imagine much spark after what we saw from both clubs in Week 1 but to be fair, they did face quality defensive units (Jaguars, Panthers).

    MNF - Seattle at Chicago: I expect this total (43) to hold steady or drop by kickoff as most bettors will point to the Bears stout defense and inconsistent offense. That attack might be able to get going against Seattle, who gave up 470 yards to Denver in Week 1. The Seahawks have watched the ‘under’ go 6-0 in their last six road games versus NFC opponents and playing back-to-back games away from home could keep that trend intact. Chicago posted a 6-2 ‘under’ mark at Soldier Field last season and only one game managed to go over this week’s number.

    Fearless Predictions

    Opening weekend is never easy but we turned a profit ($195) on the weekend and the Teaser featured two of the high-scoring shootouts. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

    Best Over: Miami-N.Y. Jets 43

    Best Under: Indianapolis-Washington 48 ½

    Best Team Total: Over 20 ½ Tampa Bay

    Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
    Under 60 ½ Kansas City-Pittsburgh
    Over 36 ½ Philadelphia-Tampa Bay
    Under 50 ½ Seattle-Chicago

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