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Thread: CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 13 (Fri., Sep. 7 - Sat., Sept. 8)

  1. #1
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    Default CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 13 (Fri., Sep. 7 - Sat., Sept. 8)

    Trends and Indexes

    Friday, September 7 - Saturday, September 8

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    CFL Betting Recap - Week 12
    Joe Williams

    League Betting Notes

    -- Favorites went 3-1 SU in Week 12
    -- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 ATS in Week 12
    -- Home teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 12
    -- Home/road teams posted a 2-2 ATS record in Week 12
    -- The 'Over/under' went 2-2 in Week 12

    Analysis

    Montreal (3-8) made another change under center this week, as head coach Mike Sherman stuck with QB Antonio Pipkin in Friday's 21-11 win at Ottawa (6-4). QB Johnny Manziel (concussion) cleared the concussion protocol, but Sherman stuck with Pipkin after his big performance in the previous game. Pipkin led the Als to a season-high second straight win, and they have now covered four in a row. Perhaps the biggest reason for the win streak is improvement on defense, allowing just 16.5 points per game (PPG) over the past two outings. They'll have two weeks to sort out their offense with a bye in Week 13.

    The RedBlacks managed just 11 points in the loss, their second-lowest performance of the season. Ottawa entered averaged 24.0 PPG in their four previous home outings. After an opening game cover at home, the RedBlacks are 0-4 ATS across their past four at home.

    It was a close shave for total bettors in Winnipeg (5-6)-Saskatchewan (6-4). The Roughriders vaulted into sole possession of second place with their victory, a half-game clear of Edmonton (6-5). The game appeared to be on the way to an 'under' (52) results, with 37 points on the through three quarters. The Riders were clinging to a 24-23 lead before Nick Marshall punched in a 1-yard touchdown run with just 66 seconds left, flipping the total from an under to over result. It also changed the side result, as the Bombers were covering the 3 1/2-point number for nearly the entire game.

    The Bombers opened the season 5-2 ATS through their first seven outings, but they're 0-4 ATS across the past four. The 'over' has hit in a season-high three in a row for Winnipeg, and is 8-3 overall on the season. The bombers will look for revenge at home in Manitoba on Saturday in the second end of the home-and-home.

    The Riders have covered three in a row and they have won a season-best three in a row. They have seen an uptick in offense, averaging 31.7 PPG over the three-game span.

    Toronto (3-7) continues to struggle, as Hamilton (5-5) dropped the Argos 42-28. The Argos have allowed 38 or more points in four of their past six, as defense continues to turn good results into bad ones. The Argos were actually winning this won 28-24 heading to the final 15 minutes, but the defense failed when the visitors needed them most.

    The Ti-Cats opened the season 2-4 SU/ATS, but they have rattled off victories in three of the past four while also going 3-1 ATS. They have picked up the pace on offense, rolling up 35.0 PPG across the past four after averaging just 21.8 PPG across their first six. It was a rare 'over' results, as the 'under' was 6-2-1 in Hamilton's first nine contests.

    Calgary (9-1) slipped by their provincial rivals from Edmonton, 23-20. However, after opening the season 4-0 ATS, the Stamps are now just 2-4 ATS across the past six. These two rivals will have a quick turnaround, facing each other again on Saturday night.

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    CFL Betting Notes - Week 13
    David Schwab

    Week 12 Betting Recap

    The extended Labor Day weekend schedule in the CFL got underway with a stunner on Friday night when Montreal shutdown Ottawa 21-11 as a heavy 16-point road underdog. Moving to Sunday’s matchup between Winnipeg and Saskatchewan, the Roughriders covered as 3 ½-point home favorites in a 31-23 victory.

    Monday’s doubleheader of Labor Day action started with Calgary getting past Edmonton 23-20 as a 7 ½-point home favorite. Hamilton closed things out by hammering Toronto 42-28 as a nine-point favorite at home.

    Friday, Sept. 7

    Ottawa RedBlacks (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS) at British Columbia Lions (3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS)

    Point-spread: BC -2 ½
    Total: 52

    Game Overview

    Ottawa continues to lead the East Division by one game, but the embarrassing loss to Montreal is another example of the overall weakness in this half of the league. The RedBlacks have failed to cover in five of their last seven games and the total has stayed UNDER in three of their last five outings. One of the biggest concerns heading into this week’s game is the 328 yards of total offense in last week’s loss against the most porous defense in the league.

    Coming off a Week 12 bye, the Lions have just one SU victory in their last five games. The total stayed UNDER 50 ½ points in a 24-21 loss to Saskatchewan their last time out as 2 ½-point home favorites and it has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in five of their last six contests. Travis Lulay continues to get the call at quarterback and he has thrown for seven touchdowns and four interceptions in six previous starts.

    Betting Trends

    -- Ottawa has won five of the last seven meetings SU, but BC is 6-2 SU in its last eight home games against the RedBlacks. The total has gone OVER in four of the last six meetings in BC.


    Saturday, Sept. 8

    Hamilton Tiger-Cats (5-5 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) at Toronto Argonauts (3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS)

    Point-spread: Hamilton -5
    Total: 52 ½

    Game Overview

    Hamilton drew first blood in this East Division home-and-home series while also closing the gap with Ottawa in the standings. The Tiger-Cats were clicking on all cylinders this Monday with Jeremiah Masoli throwing for 385 yards and three touchdowns, while Alex Green added another 115 yards and two scores on the ground. Hamilton’s defense did its part by holding Toronto to 221 yards of total offense.

    The Argonauts have failed to cover in four of their last six games overall, but they are 3-2 against the spread at home this season. The total went OVER 51 points in Monday’s loss and it has gone OVER in four of those last six games. McLeod Bethel-Thompson completed fewer than half of his 29 passing attempts against the Tiger-Cats and he failed to get the offense into the end zone through the air.

    Betting Trends

    -- Hamilton has covered ATS in 10 of the last 13 meetings and the total has gone OVER in five of the last seven meetings of the East Division tilt.

    Saskatchewan Roughriders (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (5-6 SU, 5-5-1 ATS)
    Point-spread: Winnipeg -3 ½
    Total: 53

    Game Overview

    Saskatchewan extended its current winning streak to three games both SU and ATS with Sunday’s win in this home-and-home opener. The total went OVER 52 ½ points in that game and it has now gone OVER in four of its last six games with a scoring average of 27.8 points per game. Zach Collaros completed 18 of his 30 passing attempts for 250 yards with seven of those receptions going to Naaman Roosevelt for 86 yards.

    This Saturday’s rematch suddenly becomes very important to Winnipeg’s playoff positioning in the jumbled West Division standings. The Blue Bombers are looking to snap a three-game skid both SU and ATS. The total has gone OVER in five of their last six games behind a defense that has allowed an average of 28.5 PPG.

    Betting Trends

    -- Winnipeg has won four of its last six home games against the Roughriders and the total has gone OVER in five of the last six meetings overall in this West Division matchup.

    Calgary Stampeders (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS) at Edmonton Eskimos (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS)
    Point-spread: Calgary -3
    Total: 53 ½

    Game Overview

    Calgary has not been as dominant in its last four games at 1-3 ATS after covering the spread in five of its first six games. The total stayed UNDER 54 points in Monday’s win and in seven of its first 10 games. The difference in the first installment of this West Division home-and-home was a last-second 43-yard field goal by Rene Paredes as part of his five field goals in that game. Bo Levi Mitchell did injure his knee, but he was back in the game for that final scoring drive.

    The Eskimos have now dropped three of their last four games SU with the total staying UNDER or ending as a PUSH if four of their last five games. Edmonton returns home with a SU 4-1 record this season while going 2-3 ATS. Mike Reilly ended the game against Calgary with 250 yards passing and one touchdown throw against one interception. He continues to lead the CFL with a total of 3,546 passing yards and 23 touchdown throws.

    Betting Trends

    -- Edmonton has covered the spread in four of its last five games against the Stampeders, but it is just 1-6 SU in the last seven meetings. The total has stayed UNDER in six of the last nine meetings in Calgary.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 09-08-2018 at 02:59 AM.

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    CFL

    Week 13


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    Trend Report
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    Friday, September 7

    Ottawa RedBlacks
    Ottawa is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    Ottawa is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Ottawa's last 9 games
    Ottawa is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
    Ottawa is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
    Ottawa is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing British Columbia
    Ottawa is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing British Columbia
    Ottawa is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
    British Columbia Lions
    British Columbia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    British Columbia is 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 games
    British Columbia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of British Columbia's last 6 games
    British Columbia is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing Ottawa
    British Columbia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Ottawa
    British Columbia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Ottawa
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 6 games when playing at home against Ottawa


    Saturday, September 8

    Hamilton Tiger-Cats
    Hamilton is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Hamilton is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Hamilton's last 7 games
    Hamilton is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
    Hamilton is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    Hamilton is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Toronto
    Hamilton is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hamilton's last 6 games when playing Toronto
    Hamilton is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    Hamilton is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Hamilton's last 11 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    Toronto Argonauts
    Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Toronto's last 11 games
    Toronto is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    Toronto is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games at home
    Toronto is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Hamilton
    Toronto is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Hamilton
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Hamilton
    Toronto is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Hamilton
    Toronto is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Hamilton
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Toronto's last 11 games when playing at home against Hamilton


    Saskatchewan Roughriders
    Saskatchewan is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Saskatchewan is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Saskatchewan's last 14 games
    Saskatchewan is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Saskatchewan's last 7 games on the road
    Saskatchewan is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games when playing Winnipeg
    Saskatchewan is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
    Saskatchewan is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 6 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
    Winnipeg Blue Bombers
    Winnipeg is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Winnipeg's last 7 games at home
    Winnipeg is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Saskatchewan
    Winnipeg is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games when playing Saskatchewan
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan
    Winnipeg is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan


    Calgary Stampeders
    Calgary is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
    Calgary is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Calgary's last 14 games
    Calgary is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Calgary's last 10 games on the road
    Calgary is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Edmonton
    Calgary is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Calgary's last 7 games when playing Edmonton
    Calgary is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
    Calgary is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Calgary's last 9 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
    Edmonton Eskimos
    Edmonton is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games
    Edmonton is 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games at home
    Edmonton is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
    Edmonton is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Calgary
    Edmonton is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Calgary
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 7 games when playing Calgary
    Edmonton is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Calgary
    Edmonton is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Calgary
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Edmonton's last 9 games when playing at home against Calgary


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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 09-08-2018 at 03:01 AM.

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    CFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 13


    Friday, September 7

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    OTTAWA (6 - 4) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (3 - 6) - 9/7/2018, 10:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OTTAWA is 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1996.
    OTTAWA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
    OTTAWA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
    OTTAWA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    OTTAWA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    OTTAWA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BRITISH COLUMBIA is 3-2 against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
    OTTAWA is 3-2 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Saturday, September 8

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    HAMILTON (5 - 5) at TORONTO (3 - 7) - 9/8/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    HAMILTON is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
    TORONTO is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in home games in September games since 1996.
    HAMILTON is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    TORONTO is 22-43 ATS (-25.3 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    HAMILTON is 4-3 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    HAMILTON is 4-3 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    SASKATCHEWAN (6 - 4) at WINNIPEG (5 - 6) - 9/8/2018, 4:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    SASKATCHEWAN is 84-59 ATS (+19.1 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
    SASKATCHEWAN is 139-101 ATS (+27.9 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
    SASKATCHEWAN is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
    SASKATCHEWAN is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in weeks 10 through 15 over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SASKATCHEWAN is 4-2 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
    WINNIPEG is 4-2 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CALGARY (9 - 1) at EDMONTON (6 - 5) - 9/8/2018, 7:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    EDMONTON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
    CALGARY is 133-98 ATS (+25.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    EDMONTON is 4-3 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
    CALGARY is 6-1 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 09-08-2018 at 03:02 AM.

  6. #6
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    CFL
    Dunkel

    Week 13


    Friday, September 7

    Ottawa @ BC Lions

    Game 651-652
    September 7, 2018 @ 10:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Ottawa
    111.839
    BC Lions
    110.925
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Ottawa
    by 1
    55
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    BC Lions
    by 2
    51
    Dunkel Pick:
    Ottawa
    (+2); Over


    Saturday, September 8

    Hamilton @ Toronto


    Game 653-654
    September 8, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Hamilton
    110.304
    Toronto
    109.690
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Hamilton
    by 1
    48
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Hamilton
    by 5 1/2
    52 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Toronto
    (+5 1/2); Under

    Saskatchewan @ Winnipeg


    Game 655-656
    September 8, 2018 @ 4:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Saskatchewan
    111.437
    Winnipeg
    116.929
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Winnipeg
    by 5 1/2
    50
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Winnipeg
    by 3 1/2
    54
    Dunkel Pick:
    Winnipeg
    (-3 1/2); Under

    Calgary @ Edmonton


    Game 657-658
    September 8, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Calgary
    119.425
    Edmonton
    113.247
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Calgary
    by 6
    57
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Calgary
    by 3
    52 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Calgary
    (-3); Over
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 09-08-2018 at 03:03 AM.

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    CFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 13


    Ottawa (6-4) @ BC Lions (3-6) (-2, 52)— RedBlacks won five of last seven series games; over is 3-0-1 in last four series games. Teams split the four games played here. Ottawa won four of its last six games; they’re 3-2 SU on road, 2-1 as road underdogs- their road losses were at Toronto (42-41), Calgary (24-14). Lions lost six of their last eight games; they’re 3-1 SU at home, 1-1 as a home favorite. Under is 3-0-1 in their last four games. BC had a bye last week.

    Hamilton (5-5) (-5, 53) @ Toronto (3-7)— Home side won five of last six series games; TiCats beat Toronto 42-28 at home LW, outscoring Argos 18-0 in 4th quarter. Yardage was 543-221, Ti-Cats. Hamilton lost their last two visits here, 32-15/33-21; over is 4-2-1 in last seven series games. TiCats are 5-0 when they score 25+ points, 0-5 when they don’t- they won three of last four games. Argonauts allowed 25+ points in five of last six games; they’re 3-2 at home, with losses 41-7 to Calgary, 38-20.

    Saskatchewan (6-4) @ Winnipeg (5-6)(-3.5, 53.5)— Home side won six of last eight in series; Roughriders (-3.5) beat Winnipeg 31-23 LW, outscoring Bombers 14-3 in 4th quarter. Saskatchewan lost its last three visits here, by 20-7-15 points. Eight of last ten series games went over the total. Riders won their last three games, scoring 31.7 ppg; they’re 2-2 SU on road, 5-3 vs spread as an underdog- over is 4-2 in their last six games. Bombers lost their last three games, allowing 39 ppg; five of their last six games went over the total.

    Calgary (9-1) (-3, 53) @ Edmonton (6-5)— Stampeders won six of last seven series games; they beat Eskimos 23-20 (-7.5) at home LW, kicking FG at gun for the win. Teams split last four series games played here. Three of last four series games stayed under. Calgary is 3-1 as a home favorite but lost last road game, in Regina; under is 7-3 in their games this season. Edmonton lost its last two games by total of 4 points; they won their last four home games, scoring 30.8 ppg. Under is 3-1-1 in their last five games.

    Through Week 12: Favorites 19-27; Under 28-16-2
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 09-08-2018 at 03:04 AM.

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