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Thread: NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 1 (Thur. Sep. 6 - Mon. Sep. 10)

  1. #16
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    Betting Recap - Week 1
    Joe Williams

    Overall Notes

    National Football League Week 1 Results

    Wager Favorites-Underdogs

    Straight Up 9-4-1
    Against the Spread 7-6-1

    Wager Home-Away
    Straight Up 8-5-1
    Against the Spread 7-6-1

    Wager Totals (O/U)
    Over-Under 8-6

    The largest underdogs to win straight up
    Buccaneers (+10, ML +425) at Saints, 48-40
    Chiefs (+3.5, ML +165) at Chargers, 38-28
    Redskins (+2.5. ML +115) at Cardinals, 24-6

    The largest favorite to cover
    Ravens (-8) vs. Bills, 47-3
    Vikings (-6.5) vs. 49ers, 24-16
    Patriots (-6) vs. Texans, 27-20

    Kissing Your Sister

    -- It's been said a tie is like kissing your sister. Kissing your sister sounds like a loss to me. Anyway, the Pittsburgh Steelers likely feel like they suffered a loss in their Week 1 game on the road against the rival Cleveland Browns. The Browns were more likely to come out of this game feeling good about themselves, erasing a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter to snap a 17-game losing streak, albeit not with a victory. Still, their 0-0-1 record signifies Cleveland's best start since the 2004 season. How bad is that? It was also the league's first tie in the opening weekend of the regular season since 1971, and first in the NFL since Oct. 30, 2016.

    Bad Beat Time...

    -- It isn't officially football season until there is a bad beat. Moneyline bettors for the Chicago Bears (+7, ML +260) and 'under' (45) bettors took it in the shorts when Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (knee) returned from the medical tent, cart and locker room to play in the second half. The Packers ralled from a 20-0 deficit to pick up a 24-23 win against the Bears. Chicago kicked a field goal with 2:39 to go, taking a 23-17 lead. It appeared all hope with 2:13 to go in regulation and the Packers in their own end trailing by six with a 3rd and 10. However, Rodgers dropped one off to WR Randall Cobb across the middle and he did the rest, squirting free for a 75-yard touchdown to miraculously take a 24-23 lead. The 10 points in the final 2:39 push the total from 'under' to 'over', and it killed moneyline bettors who had watched the Bears tied or in the lead for the first 57:47 of the game.

    Total Recall

    -- The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon wreaked havoc on the Midwest and East Coast during Saturday's college football schedule, and the rain shield was firmly in place over Northeast Ohio for the Steelers-Browns game. The right call was the 'under' (41) in this one, as there were just seven points on the board at halftime, and 28 points on the board after three quarters. However, the Browns decided to resemble and NFL caliber club in the fourth quarter, and they took advantage of a couple of miscues by the Steelers to rally for a 14-point quarter and a tie. Even if there were a score in the overtime period, the 'over' was already in the books.

    -- The highest total on the board was that way for a reason. In the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-New Orleans Saints battle, the Vegas oddsmakers weren't put off by the fact backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was under center for the suspended QB Jameis Winston. It was a smart call, as the Bucs nearly took care of the 'over' themselves with 48 points. They posted 14 points in the first quarter, 17 points in the second and 10 points in the third before cooling off for just seven in the final period. The Saints scored 10 or more points in the first, second and fourth in this insanely entertaining battle under the dome. No rain here to slow things down.

    -- The Buffalo Bills-Baltimore Ravens (38.5) was the lowest listed game on the board, but someone apparently forgot to tell the Ravens that they weren't a good offensively club. They ran roughshod over the Bills, firing out to a 26-0 lead to make 'under' bettors feeling uneasy. It got worse, as they took a 40-0 lead before the end of the third quarter when the Bills finally got on the board with a field goal.

    -- There are three primetime games in Week 1, with one already in the books and an 'under' result 0-1 (0.0%).

    Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

    In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

    In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

    In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

    Injury Report

    -- Buccaneers WR DeSean Jackson (concussion) suffered a concussion in Sunday's game in New Orleans. He'll have to go through the league's mandated concussion protocol before he is cleared to return.

    -- Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) checked out of the game against the New York Giants and he was unable to return.

    -- Panthers TE Greg Olsen (foot) left Sunday's game against Dallas in the first half due to a foot injury, and he returned to the sidelined on crutches while wearing a walking. It's the same foot he injured in the 2017 season.

    -- Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin (knee) sustained a sprained medial collateral ligament in the first half Sunday's game in Denver and he was unable to return.

    -- It was a long afternoon for the Titans due to lengthy lightning delays. It got even longer when play resumed in Miami, as QB Marcus Mariota (elbow) suffered an elbow injury, and he missed most of the second half. TE Delanie Walker (ankle) suffered a dislocated ankle and associated fracture and he is expected to be out for the season.

    Looking Ahead

    -- The Ravens will look to carry over their momentum into Thursday's game with the Bengals in a battle of 1-0 clubs in the AFC North. Cincinnati has won seven of the past nine in this series straight-up while going 6-3 ATS during the span. Cincinnati has won five of the past six at Paul Brown Stadium against Baltimore while going 4-2 ATS. The underdog has cashed in seven of the past eight in this series, too. In addition, the 'under' is 4-1 in the past five meetings overall between these rivals.

    -- The Dolphins and Jets will do battle at MetLife Stadium and it has been a coin-flip series lately. The teams are 4-4 SU/ATS against each other over the past eight meetings, with a slight edge to the 'over' 5-3. The favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings in this series, however.

    -- The Chargers and Bills each lost their opening games, although Buffalo was a lot worse overall in a 47-3 embarrassment in Baltimore. These teams met in Los Angeles last season, with the Chargers coming away with a 54-24 victory on Nov. 19 to cover a seven-point spread.

    -- The Panthers will travel to meet the Falcons, and that never seems to end well for Carolina. They're 1-4 SU/ATS over the past five meetings, and they have lost three straight in Georgia. When these teams get together it's usually a defensive battle, as the 'under' is 8-1-1 over the past 10 meetings in this series, including 2-0 last year.

    -- The Cowboys host the Giants are Jerry World, and Dallas is looking for its third straight win in this series. While Dallas is 2-5 ATS in the past seven meetings, they won and covered both in 2017. The 'under has also cashed in each of the past four meetings in this series.

  2. #17
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    Armadillo: Monday’s six-pack

    Top 6 picks in the Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)

    1) Bengals +3 (1,218)- W
    2) Rams -4 (1,052)
    3) Ravens -7.5 (907)- W
    4) Vikings -6.5 (854)- W
    5) Texans +6.5 (848)- L
    6) Broncos -3 (807)- T (3-1-1)

    Quote of the Day

    ”Tyrod (Taylor) got hit way too much.”
    Cleveland guard Joel Bitonio, a master of understatement, after Taylor was sacked seven times by Pittsburgh Sunday

    Monday’s quiz

    Where did Aaron Rodgers play his college football?

    Sunday’s quiz

    Poulan Weed Eater Bowl used to be played in Shreveport, LA every New Year’s Eve; it is still played there, but goes by a different name now.

    Saturday’s quiz

    Green Bay won the first Super Bowl, 35-10 against the Chiefs.


    **********************


    Armadillo: Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

    Packers 24, Bears 23— Epic comeback by Green Bay, which trailed 20-0 with 4:00 left in the third quarter; Aaron Rodgers left the field on a golf cart in the first half with an injured knee, his backup threw a pick-6 that gave Chicago a 17-0 halftime lead, but then Rodgers came back and led the Packers to a memorable win in this ancient rivalry.

    When Chicago went ahead 10-0 in the second quarter, it was the first time they led Green Bay by 10+ points in any game since 2007— these teams play twice a year. Just a horrible way to start a coaching tenure for new Bears’ coach Matt Nagy, but they did look like an improved team.

    Moving forward, Rodgers does seem to have a fairly significant knee injury, but also looks like he can play through it.

    Buccaneers 48, Saints 40— Think Jameis Winston enjoyed this game? Bucs averaged 14.9 yards/pass attempt, had 31 points at the half and cruised to a divisional road win, handing Saints their fifth Week 1 loss in a row. There is a now a pretty good chance that Ryan Fitzpatrick will still be the starting QB when Winston’s suspension ends.

    Three of Tampa Bay’s TD’s were on plays of 36+ yards; Saints threw 45 passes, ran the ball only 13 times. Drew Brees averaged 9.4 yards/pass attempt- not too shabby.

    Ravens 47, Bills 3— If owned the Buffalo franchise, I’d damn sure want to know why we traded Tyrod Taylor, since the Bills made the playoffs last year for the first time in 19 years. This was a hideous performance on a dismal, rainy day— Nathan Peterman was 5-18 for 24 yards in this game- he might be the worst NFL QB since the strike replacement games in 1987.

    If I was Colin Kaepernick’s lawyer, when his collusion trial starts we’d show video clips of Peterman starting an NFL game to show that there is collusion against Kaepernick ever suiting up again in the league.

    Steelers 21, Browns 21— Speaking of Tyrod Taylor, he rallied Cleveland back from down 21-7 in 4th quarter to tie this game with 1:58 left on a rainy day by Lake Erie. Browns had FG blocked at end of overtime that would’ve won game, but this is only 2nd time in 20 years that Cleveland didn’t lose its season opener.

    As for the Steelers, James Conner ran ball for 135 yards and two TD’s, caught five passes for 57 yards, as Le’Veon Bell’s leverage shrunk considerably.

    This was the first NFL tie in Week 1 since Dolphins-Broncos in 1971.

    Bengals 27, Colts 23— Bengals salted away this game with an 83-yard fumble return for a TD when Colts had completed a pass inside the Cincinnati red zone in the last minute.

    Colts converted 11-17 on 3rd down; they picked off a Dalton pass on the first series, took over on the Cincy 9-yard line, but turned ball over themselves. Indy had 53 pass plays, 22 runs— I’m guessing that Frank Reich wants a more balanced offense than that.

    Vikings 24, 49ers 16— Niners turned ball over four times (-3) as Garoppolo loses for first time in eight NFL starts- he completed only 15 of 33 passes. SF had ball in red zone four times, scored only 13 points. Vikings scored on a pick-6.

    Jaguars 20, Giants 15— You think Tom Coughlin enjoyed this win? Jacksonville led 13-6 at half, then did nothing but punt in second half; their one 2nd half score came on a defensive TD. Giants’ rookie RB Barkley scored their only TD on a 68-yard run. Beckham caught 11 balls for 111 yards but no TD’s.

    Patriots 27, Texans 20— New England started 11 of its 13 drives 75+ yards from end zone, lost field position by 10 yards, turned ball over three times (-1), but scored 24 yards on four red zone drives. Texans completely only half (17-34) their passes, averaging 4.3 yards/attempt.

    Eagles 18, Falcons 12— Atlanta had ball in Philly’s red zone five times Thursday night, scored a total of 9 points- they lost despite a 13-yard edge in field position, which doesn’t happen much.

    Philly had three red zone drives, scored 18 points. Eagles scored on three of their four drives that started outside their own 25- they scored zero points on the five drives that started 75+ yards from the goal line.

    Dolphins 27, Titans 20— This game had two weather delays, took almost seven hours to play; game was 10-3 after the third quarter, so if you bet under, it was a long, miserable afternoon. Both teams returned a kickoff for a TD in the 4th quarter.

    Miami won despite scoring only six points on four drives that started in Tennessee territory. Titans’ QB Mariota got hurt; former Jags’ QB Gabbert took his place.

    Chiefs 38, Chargers 28— Patrick Mahomes was 15-27/256 passing with four TD’s, as Chiefs beat the Chargers for the 9th straight time. Tyreek Hill caught seven passes for 169 yards and two TD’s— he also had a 91-yard punt return for a score.

    Mahomes was the 10th pick in the 2017 Draft; think the Browns would like to have taken him with the first pick?

    Broncos 27, Seahawks 24— Denver/New England both turned ball over three times and won Sunday; that doesn’t happen a whole lot. Seattle turned turnovers into short TD drives of 15, 41 yards- they were outgained 470-306, had only 13 first downs. All three of Denver’s TD drives were 75 yards long- they had seven plays of 20+ yards, and 25 first downs.

    Panthers 16, Cowboys 8— Former Dallas WR/current free agent Dez Bryant trolled Cowboys on social media after this game, which should really help him catch on with a new team. Rookie kicker Maher missed a 47-yard FG; the old kicker Dan Bailey hasn’t signed wth a new team yet.

    Total yardage in this game was 293-232, Carolina; Panthers won field position by 17 yards. Teams combined to convert only 6-23 on third down.

    Redskins 24, Cardinals 6— Washington led 21-0 at half, outgained Arizona 429-213, as Alex Smith won his Redskins’ debut and improved his career W-L record to 89-62-1. Washington ran ball for 182 yards, threw for 247— pretty good balance.

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