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Thread: Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

  1. #631
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    NFL Top OVER Teams (based on Over %)

    t1. Bears 8-4
    t1. Bengals 8-4
    t1. Bucs 8-4
    4. Chiefs 7-4-1
    t5. Panthers 7-5
    t5. Chargers 7-5
    t5. Jets 7-5
    t6. Steelers 7-5
    t5. 49ers 7-5



    *********************


    NFL's Top UNDER Teams (based on Under %):

    1. Broncos 8-3-1
    t2. Pats 8-4
    t2. Eagles 8-4
    t4. 11 Teams Tied at 7-5 Cardinals, Ravens, Bills, Cowboys, Texans, Panthers, Dolphins, Vikings, Saints, Titans, Redskins



    **********************


    NFL's Best ATS Teams (based on cover %):

    1. Saints 9-3
    2. Chiefs 8-3-1
    t3. Pats 8-4
    t3. Bears 8-4
    5. Seahawks 7-3-2
    t6. Chargers 7-5
    t6. Cowboys 7-5
    t6. Dolphins 7-5
    t6. Redskins 7-5
    t6. Browns 7-5


    **************************

    NFL's Worst ATS Teams (based on cover %):

    t31. 49ers 3-9
    t31. Falcons 3-9
    t28. Raiders 4-8
    t28. Jets 4-8
    t28. Eagles 4-8
    27. Packers 4-7-1
    26. Jaguars 4-6-2
    t23. Bills 5-7
    t23. Bengals 5-7
    t23. Panthers 5-7
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  2. #632
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    Close Calls - Week 13
    Joe Nelson

    Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread and total in the fourth quarter in Week 13 of the NFL regular season.

    Miami Dolphins (-3) 21, Buffalo Bills 17 (40):
    The Dolphins led 14-6 at the half and 14-9 through three quarters on a spread that fell from -6 to just -3. After both teams had interceptions late in the third quarter, Josh Allen led a touchdown drive to put Buffalo in front at the 12-minute mark, with the two-point conversion making it a 17-14 edge. With the help of two penalties for 36 yards, Miami answered with a touchdown drive in only six plays to go in front 21-17, past the favorite spread while inching closer to the total that closed at 40.

    The Bills missed a 55-yard field goal on their next drive with back-to-back sacks making that kick much more difficult. Miami only burned a minute of clock as the Bills got the ball back with more than two minutes remaining. Buffalo reached the Miami 25-yard line but a field goal wouldn’t be enough. A third down completion to the Miami 6-yard-line was overturned on replay review and on 4th-and-11 the Miami defense held to secure the narrow win while the ‘under’ also held on.

    New York Giants (+3) 30, Chicago Bears 27 (43):
    After the Bears had a comeback win last week and the Giants had a late collapse, the same storyline looked to be unfolding in this matchup. The Giants led by 10 entering the fourth quarter and held Chicago to a field goal on an early drive to keep a seven-point edge. Chicago would get the ball back with more than two minutes remaining but fumbled immediately.

    With great field position, New York had to settle for a field goal while only trimming 30 seconds off the clock. Still it was a 10-point game when the Bears got the ball back after the two-minute warning. Chase Daniel led the Bears to a field goal in just 36 seconds. Chicago got the onside kick and Daniel delivered a few big plays to tie the game as time expired. In overtime New York went first and got a 44-yard field goal. Daniel couldn’t deliver again, struggling to hold on to the ball and eventually failing on 4th-and-8 near midfield as the underdog Giants held on this week.

    Los Angeles Rams (-10) 30, Detroit Lions 16 (53):
    Detroit wound up holding the Rams to just 344 yards and trailed by only three points well into the fourth quarter as a heavy home underdog. Matthew Stafford would have another big late game turnover, fumbling on a sack near midfield to give the Rams great field position. Three plays later, the Rams went up by 10 with fewer than seven minutes remaining in the game to match the spread. Detroit had a costly red zone holding penalty and settled for a field goal past the three-minute mark to get back within one score.

    The onside kick try was not recovered and the Rams nearly could have taken a knee with Detroit exhausting its timeouts. Instead, Todd Gurley ran into the end zone after the two-minute warning to suddenly give the Rams a 14-point edge. The Lions were a threat to get back within the number late reaching the Los Angeles 14-yard-line in the final seconds before Stafford threw an interception in the end zone to end a loss for a second straight week.

    Arizona Cardinals (+13) 20, Green Bay Packers 17 (41):
    In what turned out to be Mike McCarthy’s final game for the Packers, Green Bay never approached the heavy-favorite spread. A three-point edge at halftime was erased as Arizona scored 10 points in four minutes late in the third quarter to lead by seven. The Packers tied the game at 17-17 with five minutes to go but Arizona managed a late field goal after the two-minute warning. Those on the ‘over’ liked their chances with a late Green Bay score either clearing the number or forcing overtime. The Packers didn’t make the task easy with Aaron Rodgers unable to move further than the Arizona 31-yard-line and in windy, wet conditions Mason Crosby missed from 49 yards.

    Kansas City Chiefs (-14) 40, Oakland Raiders 33 (54):
    The Chiefs led 33-16 entering the fourth quarter to sit past a spread that climbed as high as -15 before settling right on 14. Derek Carr led two fourth quarter touchdown drives to suddenly put the Raiders within three with nearly seven minutes remaining. A big offside call converted a key third down for Kansas City and the Chiefs wound up in the end zone just after the two-minute warning to seal the win up by 10. Oakland would wind up with a late field goal but only 28 seconds were on the clock when the Raiders failed on an onside kick attempt.

    Los Angeles Chargers (+3) 33, Pittsburgh Steelers 30 (53):
    With 10 points in the final three minutes before halftime, Pittsburgh had a commanding 23-7 edge in the Sunday night game. That margin held until the final two minutes of the third quarter with the Chargers completing a 13-play, 88-yard touchdown drive and also adding the two-point conversion. Pittsburgh still led by eight but a sack and a holding call had the Steelers facing 4th-and-24 and they punted back to the Chargers who delivered a 73-yard punt return touchdown. Another successful two-point conversion tied the game at 23-23. Pittsburgh went three-and-out on offense and the Chargers turned in another touchdown drive to suddenly lead by seven at the eight-minute mark.

    Pittsburgh regrouped for a 12-play touchdown drive that included a fourth down conversion but more than four minutes remained on the clock. The Chargers methodically used up the remaining clock to line up a game-winning field goal from just 39 yards. The kick was missed but offsides was called. On the second attempt, the Steelers got the block but again offsides was called. It was called again on the third attempt but Mike Badgley was good from 29 yards as the Chargers were able to steal a huge road win in the AFC picture, with these teams now having a good chance of meeting again in the Wild Card round of the AFC playoffs.

    Philadelphia Eagles (-5) 28, Washington Redskins 13 (45):
    The Eagles led 7-3 in the second quarter Monday night when Washington had to turn to third-string quarterback Mark Sanchez after losing Colt McCoy to a broken leg a few weeks after losing Alex Smith to a broken leg. Adrian Peterson broke a long run to give Washington the lead and the Redskins then stepped up on defense with a goal line stand. Washington wasn’t able to take a lead into halftime as the Eagles found the end zone after the two-minute warning to lead by four facing a favorite spread that slipped from -7 to -5. Washington managed a field goal just before halftime to trail just 14-13.

    Josh Norman came up with an interception to keep Philadelphia points off the board in the third quarter as the underdog was still in position to cover despite Sanchez providing little for the Washington offense. Early in the fourth quarter, the Eagles finally completed a touchdown drive and went for two successfully to lead by nine. Sanchez was picked off a few plays later near midfield and Philadelphia added a field goal despite picking up only seven yards. Down 12 Washington was still a touchdown away from covering but had negative yards on its final two possessions and the Eagles added a late field goal to complete a big NFC East win. The total also stayed just barely ‘under’ with several missed scoring chances in the game.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  3. #633
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    Games to Watch - Week 14


    Week 13 of the NFL season finished with the Philadelphia Eagles keeping their season alive with a much-needed win over the Washington Redskins. Things look a lot bleaker for the Redskins, though, as they lost their second QB to a broken leg this season, with back-up Colt McCoy joining Alex Smith on the injury list for the rest of the season. Both teams now need to look forward to Week 14, as we are beginning to get down to the wire, with just 4 weeks left to decide who is in and who is out.

    Let’s take a quick look ahead at the best games on the calendar this week in the NFL.

    Baltimore Ravens (+7 -125) at Kansas City Chiefs (-7 +105)

    The Ravens looked to be in trouble just a few short weeks ago after falling below .500 and losing Joe Flacco to injury. 3 weeks later and the Ravens are back in the hunt after going unbeaten with rookie QB Lamar Jackson at the helm. They are now just a half game back of the Steelers at the top of the AFC North, but they have a tough one ahead of them this weekend, with a trip to KC to face the Chiefs on Sunday. This one is going to be a battler between the great defense of the Ravens and the offense of the Chiefs, with the slight edge here going to Kansas City.

    Philadelphia Eagles (+4 -110) at Dallas Cowboys (-4 -110)

    The NFC East has been turned on its head in recent weeks, with the Dallas Cowboys coming to life at the expense of the injury riddled Redskins. The Cowboys are now in control of their own destiny and they can take another huge step towards the playoffs with a win against the defending Super Bowl Champions this weekend. The Eagles kept their postseason hopes alive with a win on Monday night versus the Redskins, making for a tight race at the top. Dallas are rolling right now, and I like them to win this one, too.

    Los Angeles Rams (-3 -115) at Chicago Bears (+3 -105)

    This is one with definite playoff implications, although both of these teams do appear to be playoff bound. The Rams are definitely in, as they have already clinched the division with an 11-1 record, but they will be looking to also lock up the #1 spot in the NFC so that they can have home field advantage in the postseason. The Bears blew a big opportunity to take a real stranglehold on the NFC North by losing in OT to the Giants on Sunday, but they still control their own destiny in the divisional race. This should be a fun one to watch, but I am taking the Rams to edge it.

    Minnesota Vikings (+3 +100) at Seattle Seahawks (-3 -120)

    If the season were to end today, these would be the two teams occupying the Wild Card spots in the NFL. There are still games to be played, though, so it goes without saying that this one is crucial to both teams. The Seattle Seahawks can’t go any higher than the #5 spot that they are currently occupying, as their division has already been clinched by the Rams. The Vikings still have a shot at a division title, but they really cannot afford to drop any more games. A close one here, but I think the Seahawks win at home.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  4. #634
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    Ugly Dogs - Week 14
    December 4, 2018
    By BetDSI


    By Tom Wilkinson

    NFL Week 14 Ugly Dogs


    If you want to win money betting NFL games then you need to go against the grain. One of the ways to do that is to take teams that no one else wants to bet. I call them ugly dogs and last week those ugly dogs went 3-2 against the spread, and in the last couple of months they are 20-13ATS. Let’s look at the Week 14 ugly dog picks.

    Check out the latest Week 14 NFL odds at BetDSI

    New York Jets +3.5 at Buffalo Bills

    The Jets are one of the worst teams in the NFL, as they come into this game at 3-9. Only the Oakland Raiders have a worse record in the AFC. The Bills are not much better at 4-8, but the Jets have completely collapsed of late, losing their last six games. The Bills have shown some signs of life with Josh Allen at quarterback and Buffalo is the home team in this matchup. It was less than a month ago when the Jets were humiliated at home by the Bills, losing 41-10.

    Perhaps revenge will be on the mind of the Jets, so that is at least one positive for New York. This is ugly, but that is the point, as we take the points with the Jets.

    San Francisco 49ers +5.5 vs. Denver Broncos

    The 49ers have an offensive coach in Kyle Shanahan and a lot of people think the franchise is on the right track, but this season is a lost cause. The 49ers are tied with the Raiders for the worst record in the NFL at 2-10. They are going with a quarterback in Nick Mullens who really should be on the bench and they have so many injuries that players like Jeff Wilson are getting playing time at running back.

    The Broncos have surged of late and are now very much in playoff contention in the AFC, but this game is on the road and Denver is hard to trust away from Mile High. The San Francisco defense has really struggled of late, so if the 49ers are to cover this game the offense will have to find a way to put points on the board against a tough Denver defense. We’ll take the points with the 49ers as an ugly dog.

    Cincinnati Bengals +14 at Los Angeles Chargers

    The collapse of the Cincinnati Bengals continues, as the Bengals come into this game at 5-7 and Cincinnati is without two of their best players, as quarterback Andy Dalton and receiver A.J. Green are done for the season. It is hard to get too excited about taking a Cincinnati team with Jeff Driskel at quarterback. The Bengals are probably playing their last season under head coach Marvin Lewis who has somehow survived in Cincinnati even though his team has never won a playoff game.

    The Chargers are one of the top teams in the league, but perhaps they will have a letdown after last week’s huge win against Pittsburgh. The Chargers have also been a better team on the road than they have at home. Despite the fact they are winning, the Chargers have no home field advantage and reports are that people can’t give their tickets away this week to the Cincinnati game. We’ll take the big points and go with the Bengals as an ugly dog.

    Oakland Raiders +11 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers


    The Raiders came through for us last week as an ugly dog and Oakland has been a fixture in this column for much of the season. The Raiders are 2-10 SU, and 4-8 ATS. The Raiders faced the Chiefs last week at home and now they get the Steelers. The Steelers have been a mess of late, but you would think this would be a good week for them to get well.

    The Raiders at least looked competent last week on offense, but that was against a weak Kansas City defense. The Steelers are at least better on defense than the Chiefs. It is hard to envision the Raiders playing well in back-to-back weeks, but at least they are getting big points. We’ll go with Oakland as an ugly dog plus the points.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  5. #635
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    By: Brandon DuBreuil



    CONNER OUT FOR WEEK 14

    After originally announcing that running back James Conner’s injury from Sunday night was a “lower-leg contusion”, Steelers coach Mike Tomlin reversed course on Tuesday and told the media that Conner has already been ruled out for Sunday against Oakland. There are reports that it could be the dreaded high-ankle sprain, but the Steelers wouldn’t confirm.

    Rookie Jaylen Samuels moves forward as the presumed lead back, although Mike Tomlin did say the “intention” is to use a committee approach with veteran Stevan Ridley (and perhaps newly promoted Trey Edmunds). Samuels, however, has by far the most upside and is the only one worth focusing on. He has 12 carries and seven receptions and has only seen action in four games so far this season, but he’s intriguing after being used as an RB/WR/TE hybrid at NC State last season, rushing 182 times and catching 201 passes. He has huge potential, especially in a very soft spot against Oakland’s 31st-ranked defense in DVOA, but there is some risk in backing his yardage totals as Ridley could see a chunk of carries. Samuels does have two touchdowns (both receiving) already this season, however, and we see him hitting pay dirt again on Sunday. We suggest backing him to score a touchdown at any time.


    D-JAX SHUT DOWN?

    Reports out of Tampa Bay late Tuesday are that DeSean Jackson could be shut down for the remainder of the season because of his thumb injury. Jackson tried to practice last week but couldn’t catch the ball. Shutting Jackson down would make sense as he’s not expected to be part of the future in Tampa. The Bucs can opt out of Jackson’s contract at the end of this season with no dead money on the cap and they’re expected to do so, especially with the emergence of Chris Godwin.

    The second-year receiver out of Penn State looks like a star in the making with multiple big performances on the season, including last week’s line of 5-101-1 in his first start of the year. If Jackson is indeed out this week, we’ll be looking to back Godwin as he stays in the starting lineup for the league’s No. 1 passing offense. On Sunday, the Bucs host the Saints and are an eight-point underdog, so the game script should line up nicely for Tampa’s passing game as they try to chase points. It’s also much easier to pass against the Saints than it is to run, as New Orleans ranks 22nd in passing DVOA but third in rushing DVOA. Keep an eye on Covers’ Twitter feed for injury updates and take the Over on Godwin’s receiving yards total when D-Jax is officially ruled out.


    IT’S NOT ABOUT THE BENJAMINS IN BUFFALO

    Last season, the Bills sent two draft picks to Carolina for receiver Kelvin Benjamin. Yesterday, they cut him after he had just 39 catches and 571 yards in 18 games. Talk about a bust. Veteran receiver Andre Holmes was also let go on Tuesday and Buffalo moves forward with Zay Jones, Robert Foster, and Isaiah McKenzie at wideout as it hosts the Jets on Sunday as a 3.5-point favorite.

    This is hardly a downgrade for Josh Allen — in fact, it might be an upgrade as Benjamin hasn’t had more than two catches in a game since Week 9 and it will now free up snaps for players who want to be on the field. Allen is coming off one his best passing performances of the season when he went 18 of 33 for 231 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions — in a game where the Bills played catch up all day. This week, he gets the Jets and its 12th-ranked defense in passing DVOA that gave up 282 passing yards last week to Marcus Mariota — in a game where the Titans played catch up all day. The Bills are a home favorite on Sunday and likely won’t be playing from behind. Instead, Buffalo will rely heavily on the run and, for that reason, we don’t envision Allen having another above-average game by his standards. We’re taking the Under on his passing yards total.


    OLSEN OUT FOR THE SEASON

    Panthers tight end Greg Olsen is out for the season as he needs surgery for yet another foot injury. Olsen’s career could also be at stake here as he’s 33 years old and has now suffered three major foot injuries since the beginning of last season. Usually, when Olsen is out we look to Devin Funchess but his role in the Panthers’ offense is spiraling downwards. He had just one catch for 10 yards last week in his return to the lineup, though it did go for a touchdown.

    We could be witnessing a changing of the guard at the pass-catching positions in Carolina. D.J. Moore has looked like a legitimate No. 1 receiver over the past few weeks while Curtis Samuel busted out with six catches for 88 yards on 11 targets. Rookie tight end Ian Thomas also caught all five of his targets for 46 yards when stepping in for Olsen. The Panthers do have a tough spot in Week 14 as they head to Cleveland to take on a Browns defense that is ranked third in passing DVOA. The Browns do struggle against the run, however, ranking just 26th in rushing DVOA. Cleveland gave up 103 rushing yards on 19 carries to Lamar Miller last week and an additional 54 on 13 carries to Alfred Blue. We’re going to stay away from Carolina’s passing game for Week 14, but we will be taking the Over on Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards total.


    WASHINGTON SIGNS JOSH JOHNSON

    The Washington Redskins have signed quarterback Josh Johnson to back up Mark Sanchez for the remainder of the season. Yes, that’s the same Josh Johnson who used to be with Tampa Bay and it’s the same Josh Johnson who hasn’t thrown an NFL pass since 2011. Neither Sanchez or Johnson belong in professional football and there’s an argument to be made that they currently make up the worst quarterback depth chart in the history of the NFL.

    As noted yesterday, some books opened the line for Sunday’s game against the Giants with Washington favored by 1.5. Congratulations if you were able to get a bet on that as the line has now shifted to New York -3.5. However, if you’re still looking to fade Washington, we think its team total is still set too high at 17.5 (and even 18.5 at some books). Yes, the Giants are a below-average defense, but Sanchez can’t throw the ball (4.8 yards per attempt last week) and the offensive line is a mess (Adrian Peterson ran for eight yards on eight attempts when you exclude his 90-yard run on Monday night). Grab the Under for Washington’s team total before it dips.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  6. #636
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    Tech Trends - Week 14
    Bruce Marshall

    Thursday, Dec. 6

    JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE (FOX/NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)

    Jags on 1-7 SU, 1-5-2 spread skid, 0-4-1 vs. line last five away. Titans on 8-2-2 run vs. line at home, and have won and covered last three vs. Jax.
    Tech Edge: Titans, based on team trends.



    Sunday, Dec. 9

    BALTIMORE at KANSAS CITY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Chiefs only one cover last 5 TY (1-3-1), and no covers last two as host. Though still 12-3-1 last 16 vs spread in reg season. Ravens 6-2-1 last eight as dog.
    Tech Edge: Ravens, based on team trends.


    INDIANAPOLIS at HOUSTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Colts have won last five of last six SU, Texans have won last 9 SU. Houston win streak began Sept. 30 at Indy. Colts 4-0-1 vs. line last five at NRG Stadium. Texans only 3-3 vs. spread as host TY.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Colts, based on series trends.


    CAROLINA at CLEVELAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Panthers 0-4 SU and vs. line last three TY. Browns 7-5 vs. spread in 2018, 4-2 vs. line at home. Cam on 13-7 “over” run since late 2017.
    Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Browns, based on “totals” and team trends.


    ATLANTA at GREEN BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Falcs only 3-9 vs. points this season, 1-4 vs. spread away, also “under” 4 of last 5. Pack “under” 5 of last 6 TY.
    Tech Edge: Slight to “under, ” based on “totals” trends.


    NEW ORLEANS at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Saints had their 10-game SU and 9-game spread win streaks snapped at Dallas. Only previous SU loss this season in opener vs. Bucs. TB only 3-6-1 last 9 on board this season. but has covered last 2 and 6 of last 9 in series.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Saints, based on recent trends.


    N.Y. JETS at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Jets no SU wins L6 TY, only 3-8 L11 vs. line. Bills 7-3 last 10 vs. spread in series.
    Tech Edge: Bills, based on team trends.


    NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Belichick has had problems before in Miami, he’s lost and failed to cover 4 of last 5 at Dolphins, and just 1-4-1 last six as series visitor. Dolphins are 4-1 vs. line at home this season. Home team 11-1 vs. spread last 12 in series!
    Tech Edge: Dolphins, based on series trends.


    N.Y. GIANTS at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Eli has covered five straight on road! Into Monday, Skins on 10-5 “under” run, and “unders” four straight in series.
    Tech Edge: Giants and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


    DENVER at SAN FRANCISCO (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
    Broncos have turned around spread fortunes and have covered 6 of last 7 this season. Also four straight on road. Niners just 3-9 vs. line in 2018. Denver on 12-4 “under” run.
    Tech Edge: Broncos and “Under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


    CINCINNATI at L.A. CHARGERS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
    Cincy 1-6 SU and vs. line last seven TY. Bengals also on 9-4 “over” run. Beginning with fifth game the past two seasons, Bolts 14-5-1 vs. number.
    Tech Edge: Chargers and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


    DETROIT at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
    Cards 6-3-1 last ten on board TY and have covered 3 of last 4 as home dog. Lions 1-5 vs. spread last six TY.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Cards, based on team trends.


    PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
    Surging Dak has won and covered last four this season. Dallas back to “under” in last game and “under” 15-6 since early 2017. Prior to last Monday vs. Skins, Birds only 3-10-1 last 14 on board in reg season since late 2017 though have covered 3 of last 4 at Dallas. Pederson 6-3 last 9 as dog.
    Tech Edge: Cowboys and “under,” based on recent and “totals” trends.


    PITTSBURGH at OAKLAND (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
    Steel 5-2-1 last eight vs. line TY, Raiders on 6-17-3 spread skid since early 2017. Raiders “under” 13-6 last 19 (though “under” only 6-6 TY).
    Tech Edge: Steelers, based on team trends.


    L.A. RAMS at CHICAGO (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
    Surprisingly Rams only 5-8-2 vs. spread last 14 on board, 3-4 last six vs. spread away. Bears 5-1 vs. line last six TY and 5-1 vs. points at Soldier Field, 13-4-2 vs. points at home since mid 2016, 8-2-1 last 11 as home dog.
    Tech Edge: Bears, based on team trends.



    Monday, Dec. 10

    MINNESOTA at SEATTLE (ESPN, 8:25 p.m. ET)

    Hawks on 6-1-1 spread uptick, most of that on road (they play 4 of last 5 at home). Zimmer 7-4-2 vs. line last 12 away from home. Vikes “over” 4-2 away TY, Hawks “over” last 4.
    Tech Edge: Slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  7. #637
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    TNF - Jaguars at Titans
    Tony Mejia

    Jacksonville at Tennessee (-4.5, 37.5), 8:20 pm ET, FOX/NFLN

    Jacksonville’s defense has the potential to make Blake Bortles look awful by helping pull off a second straight divisional upset as their demoted former starter again watches from the sideline. Cody Kessler benefited as the team’s strongest unit did the heavy lifting in a 6-0 win over the Colts that replaced the Titans-Jags Week 3 meeting as the lowest-scoring game of the season.

    Andrew Luck underwent an on-field root canal in dealing with Jacksonville’s pressure up front and the excellence of a rejuvenated defensive backfield, throwing for 248 yards and getting intercepted once in being shutout.

    With corner A.J. Bouye back to help a healthier Jalen Ramsey and impressive D.J. Hayden, the Jaguars again boast one of the league’s strongest defensive backfields. Up front, they’ll have to replace starting nose tackle Abry Jones off the unit that blanked the Colts but are still well-equipped to make life difficult for Tennessee. For more on who is in and out, read the injury report below.

    Since the best the Jaguars can finish is 8-8, all success they have from this point on won’t affect their playoff chances but will certainly have a toll on the postseason picture. After snapping their seven-game losing streak by ending Indy’s five-game unbeaten run, the Jags now take aim at playing spoiler against Tennessee, which is one of four teams on the outside looking in of the AFC’s top-six, trailing the Ravens by a game.

    Jacksonville will now try and snap a winless run of four games in Nashville and a 2-12 run against AFC South Division foes.

    The Titans got back to .500 against the Jets on Sunday, but only barely. Despite facing veteran backup QB Josh McCown and a banged-up New York squad that hadn’t won since mid-October, Tennessee needed Marcus Mariota to find Corey Davis with 36 seconds left to cap a comeback from a 22-13 fourth-quarter deficit.

    Mariota has shown a knack for saving his best for last but contributed greatly to digging last week’s hole by throwing a pick-six. He led the Titans in rushing and threw for 286 yards to wrap up his 12th career game-winning drive, which does inspire confidence since style points won’t matter against Jacksonville. The Titans have won five of six over the Jags (see series history below) and have found ways to overcome Bortles and a defense that has been among the NFL’s best in low-scoring games and shootouts no matter who the coaches have been, so Doug Marrone will have his work cut out for him on the road with a team that has won only one true road game all season, beating the Giants 20-15 in Week 1.

    The Titans are 4-1 in Nashville and own conquests of the Texans, Eagles and Patriots, so they perform in front of the paying customers. They’ll have to deal with nemesis Leonard Fournette, who returns from a one-game suspension and may be the healthiest he’s been all season since he’s been bothered by injuries most of the way.

    Being unable to count on him early forced Jacksonville to trade for Carlos Hyde, who is also available alongside T.J. Yeldon. Kessler comes into this one averaging 153 passing yards in his two appearances, so count on the run game being the staple of the Jags’ attack. His longest completion spans 23 yards, so it’s likely you’ll see a run defense that ranks 19th against the ground game and has been the weak link in that unit tested exhaustively.

    Count on the Titans challenging Kessler to make plays in the red zone since first-year head coach Mike Vrabel and defensive coordinator Dean Pees have been especially stingy inside the 20-yard line, holding opponents to the lowest touchdown rate in the NFL (44.1 percent).

    Fournette has run for 95 yards in each of his last two games, finding the end zone three times in losses to the Steelers and Bills before his one-game suspension. He wasn’t in the lineup in Week 3 and ran for just 109 yards on 33 carries in last season’s losses, scoring once. Getting him going in addition to another strong defensive outing is the ideal formula for the Jags to pull this offense.

    Tennessee’s current schedule isn’t daunting, so it has an opportunity to run the table if it can keep the ball rolling by picking up where it left off in Sunday’s fourth quarter. The Titans’ lone road remaining game will be Dec. 16 vs. the Giants and their final contests will come at home against the Redskins and Colts, who each enter Week 14 at 6-6 on the heels of brutal offensive showings.

    That would seem to play right into Tennessee’s wheelhouse, but a running game that was non-existent last week must emerge and Mariota has to stay healthy. Per Titans Online expert Jim Wyatt, the former No. 2 pick has gone 128-for-174, throwing for 1,656 yards, eight TDs and five interceptions in his six previous primetime games, so we’ll see if he’s up to this latest challenge. The offensive line in front of him was reshuffled on the run against the Jets as Corey Levin came into play center, so we’ll see if that change remains in place and guard Quinton Spain in relegated to a backup role.

    Jacksonville also made changes in addition to the high-profile one where Bortles was left stuck holding a clipboard, starting Patrick Omameh at guard up front notorious former Giants flop Ereck Flowers started at tackle for Josh Walker. Ronnie Harrison started at safety ahead of Barry Church while Marcell Dareus moved inside, so there will again likely be some in-game variables.

    As far as the elements go, snow fell in Nashville on Wednesday but we should see clear conditions and temperatures in the high 30s for this Thursday night clash.

    Jacksonville Jaguars
    Season win total: 9 (Over -130, Under +110)
    Odds to win AFC South: OFF to OFF
    Odds to win AFC: 2000/1 to 900/1
    Odds to win Super Bowl: 5000/1 to 2000/1

    Tennessee Titans
    Season win total: 8 (Over -110, Under -110)
    Odds to win AFC South: 25/1 to OFF
    Odds to win AFC: 90/1 to 90/1
    Odds to win Super Bowl: 200/1 to 200/1

    LINE MOVEMENT

    Those who faded the Jaguars to open the season are already planning what to do with their winnings. Jacksonville can no longer reach its projected season win total and will pay out +140 at Westgate by not making the postseason. The Titans are still alive to go over on wins and reach the playoffs at +145, so those who went 'no' on them playing on in January at -170 are hoping for help from the Jags here since a Tennessee loss and Houston weekend win would give the Texans the AFC South.

    When the season began, Jacksonville was a 7/4 favorite to win the division, so its flop is very real. The Texans were 2/1, Tennessee was 7/2 and the Colts brought up the rear in terms of expectations at 4/1. The Texans moved from 1/10 entering Week 13 to that future coming off the board altogether as a foregone conclusion. The Jags do still have life, but placing anything on them from a futures standpoint is flushing cash down the toilet. The Titans' odds didn't budge after they survived the Jets.

    As far as this matchup is concerned, the Titans were a 6.5-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced last week so the Jags' impressive shutout of the Colts altered things. Westgate opened at -5 but quickly came down to 4.5, which is where most shops opened and where it currently is available in many places. Tennessee -4 was available most of the week, but there is now a lot of -5 out there.

    Tennessee is in the -225/-230 range on the money line. If you like the road 'dog outright, a payout on the Jags win will get you +190 to +200 depending on where you wager.

    INJURY CONCERNS

    Jacksonville's biggest absence with Fournette available again is the aforementioned Jones, who hasn't practiced due to a shin injury and will force more reshuffling from the Jags on the defensive front. DE Calais Campbell did overcome an ankle injury and has been cleared, while Ramsey (knee) is also off the injury repot. Jacksonville backup corners Tre Herndon and Quenton Meeks will join LB Lerentee McCray in the mix, so the Jags have plenty of ammo on that side of the ball.

    The Titans will be without safety Dane Cruikshank and RB David Flueleen due to knee injuries but should be fine without both. Key safeties Kenny Vaccaro and Kevin Byard, DT Jaurrell Casey, corners Adoree Jackson and Malcolm Butler and WR Tajae Sharpe are all good to go. Pass-rusher Derrick Morgan is listed as questionable.

    TOTAL TALK

    The ‘over/under’ for this matchup opened at 38 and most betting shops are holding a number of 37 as of Thursday morning. Weekly “Total Talk” writer Chris David of VegasInsider.com offered up his thoughts on this matchup:

    It’s rare to see totals close in the thirties in the NFL these days and this will be the ninth total that will be in this neighborhood this season and the ‘over’ has gone 5-3 in the first eight totals that closed below 40.

    One of those ‘under’ winners came between this pair as the Titans defeated the Jaguars 9-6 on Sept. 23 and the low side (39 ) was never in doubt. This was a game dominated by the defensive units as neither offense could move the football and the pair combined for 465 total yards.

    Normally I would use a vice versa handicap and lean to the high side based off the low-scoring result in the first meeting but it’s a tough argument to make. Especially with Cody Kessler under center for Jacksonville. While he wasn’t horrible last week against the Colts, expecting him to move the chains or make big plays seems like a long shot against a Titans scoring defense (18.6 PPG) that has been solid at home.

    Even though Tennessee and Jacksonville both enter this game with 7-5 ‘under’ records, two of the last three meetings in Nashville have gone ‘over’ the number. One of those outcomes occurred in a Thursday contest (2016) as Tennessee ran past Jacksonville 36-22 and the ‘over’ (43 ) connected. Including that outcome, the Titans have watched the ‘over’ cash in their last five primetime games and that includes two results this season (both on MNF).

    Road underdogs haven’t played well in the midweek matchup this season but I’m expecting a competitive game. If my lean is right that the Jaguars can hang around, then it has to be a low-scoring affair. Instead of leaning to the game total, I believe the better play is the Tennessee team total under (21 ) on Thursday.

    RECENT MEETINGS (Tennessee 5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS last 8; OVER 4-2)

    9/23/18 Tennessee 9-6 at Jacksonville (TEN +10, 39)
    12/31/17 Tennessee 15-10 vs. Jacksonville (TEN -2.5, 40)
    9/17/17 Tennessee 37-16 at Jacksonville (TEN -1, 42)
    12/24/16 Jacksonville 38-17 vs. Tennessee (JAX +4, 44)
    10/27/16 Tennessee 36-22 vs. Jacksonville (TEN -3, 43.5)
    12/6/15 Tennessee 42-39 vs. Jacksonville (TEN -2.5, 43.5)

    NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

    Westgate Vegas opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 15 currently has the Titans listed as an 1.5-point road favorite at the Giants. The Jaguars will be back home in another spoiler role as they host the Mark Sanchez-led 'Skins and are an early 6.5-point favorite.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    Week 14 Best Bets - Totals
    December 5, 2018
    By Bookmaker


    Week 14 NFL Best Bets – Totals

    Backing the 'over' in last week's Cardinals/Packers game proved to be costly, as I didn't do myself any favors by not thoroughly checking the weather report for what ended up being snow squalls the day of the game. Cashing 'overs' in that type of weather is always going to be tough, but it's not like there weren't plenty of chances to get points to sail 'over' the number, especially if Green Bay had tied the game late to force OT.

    Still, Aaron Rodgers effort was laughable, and it will be interesting to see if that changes in these final few weeks now that he's got what he wanted – Mike McCarthy gone. It's on to this week though now.

    And four this week's play, I thought it best to get this play out a day earlier than usual, not because of the potential for the number to move (although it could), but because it involved a certain scenario that can also be applied to the TNF game as well for those that are interested. It's a situation that occurred back in the first few weeks of the season and hasn't happened since, and with the plays going 2-0 O/U back then, I thought it best to bring it back this week as well.

    Odds per - Bookmaker.eu

    Best Bet: Indianapolis/Houston Over 49

    Back in my Week 4 Best Bets piece, there was a play on the 'over' in the Jets/Jaguars game that ended up cashing that fits a similar spot this week. Part of the reasoning back then was because the Jags were in a favorable 'over' spot because they had just come off a game where neither team scored 10 or more points and those teams were on a 5-1 O/U run the following week.

    Well, Jacksonville and the Jets went 'over' their number, as did the Titans that week (Jacksonville's opponent the week prior), and thanks to another low-scoring AFC South matchup featuring Jacksonville and Indy a week ago, this great 'over' scenario once again applies to both Jacksonville (TNF) and this Indianapolis/Houston game this week.

    After those Week 4 results, teams involved in a game where neither side scored 10 or more points is now on a 7-1 O/U run, and with the Colts getting blanked 6-0 by Jacksonville last week, we've got another opportunity to ride this theory out.

    It hasn't happened across the league since then, and considering we've got the much more reliable offenses from the AFC South division – as opposed to Jacksonville or Tennessee – in this matchup, I do believe we see plenty of points in this Colts/Texans matchup. That 7-1 O/U run for teams off a game without 10 or more points scored also includes an average of 50 points the following week. Not a huge margin of error for an 'over' play here, but a number that's above the current total regardless.

    Aside from that scenario supporting an 'over' play here, we've got plenty of “typical” reasons to like a high-scoring game in this one as well. For instance, the first meeting between these two rivals back at the end of September saw 71 total points scored in a game that cashed an 'over' ticket at nearly an identical number (48.5) midway through the fourth quarter.

    Each QB passed for at least 375 yards that afternoon, as QB Andrew Luck had a phenomenal day throwing the ball in catch-up mode, going 40-for-62 for 464 yards and 4 TD's. Indy will want to get more balance in their attack this week, but if they find themselves trailing by multiple scores early again, Luck won't be shy about chucking it all around the yard.

    Secondly, Houston's looking to extend their nine-game winning streak and grab essentially a stranglehold on the AFC South division, and they've got to assume they aren't going to have great success in accomplishing that goal by trying to silence the Colts attack like Jacksonville did a week ago.

    The Texans defense has been quite good during this winning streak, allowing fewer than 20 points in six of those nine wins – a streak that began with that OT win over Indianapolis – but when you look at the offensive capabilities of the eight teams besides Indianapolis during this run – Dallas, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Miami, Denver, Washington, Tennessee, and Cleveland – it's not like any of them can be described as offensively-minded football clubs.

    All eight of those squads rank 17th or worse in terms of points per game this year, including four of them being in the bottom six of the league in that regard. Denver's 17th position at 23 points per game is a full 4.1 points fewer than what the Colts have put up on average this season (27.1/game), and Indy is also on a 7-2 O/U run on the road after scoring fewer than 7 points, and 9-3 O/U after dealing with that tough Jaguars defense the past few years.

    We might not get 70+ points in the return match between these two clubs, but you know the Colts won't be shy about being ultra-aggressive a week after getting blanked and trying to keep their hopes of a division title alive. Houston's offense won't back down from a shootout either as they are 5-2 O/U in their last seven at home against a division foe, and with the weapons they've got this year are more capable than ever to go toe-to-toe with Andrew Luck.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    THURSDAY, DECEMBER 6
    GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

    JAC at TEN 08:20 PM

    TEN -5.5

    O 37.5
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    Titans' Henry thrives in 30-9 rout of Jags
    December 6, 2018
    By The Associated Press


    NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) The Jacksonville Jaguars' defense followed up a shutout with a washout.

    A defense that prides itself as one of the NFL's best got embarrassed on a national stage by Derrick Henry in the Jaguars' 30-9 loss to the Tennessee Titans on Thursday night.

    Henry stiff-armed three separate Jaguars on an NFL record-tying 99-yard touchdown run in the second quarter and spent the rest of the night running all over a defense that seemed like it would have rather been anywhere else. Henry finished the night with a franchise-record 238 yards rushing and four touchdowns on just 17 carries.

    Jacksonville's toothless offense generally leaves its defense with no margin for error. The Jaguars produced a single-digit scoring total for the fifth time this season Thursday. They have exceeded 21 points just once in their last nine games.

    So if the Jaguars' defense isn't dominant, they have little chance of winning. That defense was virtually flawless Sunday as the Jaguars snapped a seven-game skid with a 6-0 victory over Indianapolis that resulted in Colts quarterback Andrew Luck's first career shutout loss.

    But a defense that could do no wrong against the Colts did very little right Thursday.

    Tennessee (7-6) took the lead for good by driving 73 yards on the game's opening possession and scoring on Henry's 3-yard touchdown run. Henry's second touchdown was far more impressive and capped a four-play sequence that essentially decided the game.

    Jacksonville (4-9) trailed 7-2 and had second-and-goal at the 1 with a chance to take the lead in the second quarter, but the Jaguars failed to score. Leonard Fournette was stopped on a second-down run, quarterback Cody Kessler couldn't connect with Tommy Bohanon on third down and Fournette was stopped again on fourth down.

    Then Henry delivered the knockout blow.

    Henry cut around the left end and headed down the sideline. His first stiff-arm knocked cornerback A.J. Bouye out of the play about 20 yards downfield. Henry later used his arm to toss linebacker Leon Jacobs to the ground and then stiff-armed linebacker Myles Jack out of the way as well.

    The 2015 Heisman Trophy winner from Alabama then sailed into the end zone and celebrated with a Heisman pose. The only other NFL player ever to score on a 99-yard run was Hall of Famer Tony Dorsett, who did it for the Dallas Cowboys against the Minnesota Vikings in 1983.

    Henry wasn't finished imposing his will on Jacksonville's defense.

    He scored two more touchdowns in the third quarter - one on a 16-yard run up the middle and another on a 54-yard burst around right end. His 238-yard performance broke the franchise record previously held by Chris Johnson, who ran for 228 yards against Jacksonville on Nov. 1, 2009.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    Titans' Henry thrives in 30-9 rout of Jags
    December 6, 2018
    By The Associated Press


    NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) The Jacksonville Jaguars' defense followed up a shutout with a washout.


    A defense that prides itself as one of the NFL's best got embarrassed on a national stage by Derrick Henry in the Jaguars' 30-9 loss to the Tennessee Titans on Thursday night.


    Henry stiff-armed three separate Jaguars on an NFL record-tying 99-yard touchdown run in the second quarter and spent the rest of the night running all over a defense that seemed like it would have rather been anywhere else. Henry finished the night with a franchise-record 238 yards rushing and four touchdowns on just 17 carries.


    Jacksonville's toothless offense generally leaves its defense with no margin for error. The Jaguars produced a single-digit scoring total for the fifth time this season Thursday. They have exceeded 21 points just once in their last nine games.


    So if the Jaguars' defense isn't dominant, they have little chance of winning. That defense was virtually flawless Sunday as the Jaguars snapped a seven-game skid with a 6-0 victory over Indianapolis that resulted in Colts quarterback Andrew Luck's first career shutout loss.


    But a defense that could do no wrong against the Colts did very little right Thursday.


    Tennessee (7-6) took the lead for good by driving 73 yards on the game's opening possession and scoring on Henry's 3-yard touchdown run. Henry's second touchdown was far more impressive and capped a four-play sequence that essentially decided the game.


    Jacksonville (4-9) trailed 7-2 and had second-and-goal at the 1 with a chance to take the lead in the second quarter, but the Jaguars failed to score. Leonard Fournette was stopped on a second-down run, quarterback Cody Kessler couldn't connect with Tommy Bohanon on third down and Fournette was stopped again on fourth down.


    Then Henry delivered the knockout blow.


    Henry cut around the left end and headed down the sideline. His first stiff-arm knocked cornerback A.J. Bouye out of the play about 20 yards downfield. Henry later used his arm to toss linebacker Leon Jacobs to the ground and then stiff-armed linebacker Myles Jack out of the way as well.


    The 2015 Heisman Trophy winner from Alabama then sailed into the end zone and celebrated with a Heisman pose. The only other NFL player ever to score on a 99-yard run was Hall of Famer Tony Dorsett, who did it for the Dallas Cowboys against the Minnesota Vikings in 1983.


    Henry wasn't finished imposing his will on Jacksonville's defense.


    He scored two more touchdowns in the third quarter - one on a 16-yard run up the middle and another on a 54-yard burst around right end. His 238-yard performance broke the franchise record previously held by Chris Johnson, who ran for 228 yards against Jacksonville on Nov. 1, 2009.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    Sunday, December 9, 2018
    Time (ET) Away Home
    1:00 PM New York Jets Buffalo Bills
    1:00 PM Carolina Panthers Cleveland Browns
    1:00 PM Atlanta Falcons Green Bay Packers
    1:00 PM Indianapolis Colts Houston Texans
    1:00 PM Baltimore Ravens Kansas City Chiefs
    1:00 PM New England Patriots Miami Dolphins
    1:00 PM New Orleans Saints Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    1:00 PM New York Giants Washington Redskins
    4:05 PM Cincinnati Bengals Los Angeles Chargers
    4:05 PM Denver Broncos San Francisco 49ers
    4:25 PM Detroit Lions Arizona Cardinals
    4:25 PM Philadelphia Eagles Dallas Cowboys
    4:25 PM Pittsburgh Steelers Oakland Raiders
    8:20 PM Los Angeles Rams Chicago Bears

    Monday, December 10, 2018

    Time (ET) Away Home
    8:15 PM Minnesota Vikings Seattle Seahawks


    **********************


    NFL December's Best Bets and Opinions

    DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

    12/06/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
    12/03/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
    12/02/2018 12-11-0 52.17% -0.50

    Totals...............16-11-0.....59.25%.....+19.50

    ********************

    Best Bets For December

    DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

    12/06/2018............1 - 0 ................+5.00......................1 - 0................+5.00............+10.00
    12/03/2018............1 - 0.................+5.00......................1 - 0................+5.00............+10.00
    12/02/2018............3 - 4..................-7.00......................0 - 3................-16.50............-23.50

    Totals.....................5 - 4..................+3.00....................2 - 3................-6.50...............-3.50
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    Friday’s 6-pack

    Paul Goldschmidt’s % of knocking in a runner from 3rd base:
    2018: 17-70, 24.3%
    2017: 27-79, 36.5%
    2016: 33-95, 34.7%
    2015: 33-74, 44.6%
    2014: 29-46, 45.7%
    2013: 34-76, 44.7%
    2012: 25-69: 36.2%
    2011: 9-31, 29.0%

    Tweet of the Day
    “The gist of the conversation was more along the lines of just a friend reaching out to another friend, but as far as that concerns of him helping us out, or different things like that, anytime that you can have a coach of his caliber that wants to be around and be able to be an extra set of eyes, has a great vision for offense but also just football in general.

    Those are things that when you have some rare friendships like I’ve been fortunate to form in this profession, you want to be able to, No. 1 be supportive of your buddy, but No. 2 if it’s something that can help you improve as a team, if somebody wanted to do that, we’re always looking for ways to do that.”
    Sean McVay, talking about Kliff Kingsbury

    Friday’s quiz
    Which NFL owner made his fortune when he invented the seamless bumper that is used on cars now?

    Thursday’s quiz
    Jeff Fisher was the Tennessee Titans’ coach in their only Super Bowl appearance, against the Rams; he later became coach of the Rams.

    Wednesday’s quiz
    When George H. W. Bush was President, Dan Quayle was the Vice President.

    ****************************

    Friday’s List of 13: Some college knowledge……..

    Request for college basketball fans: If you know of an impact transfer who is going to become eligible this month, please e-mail his name/school to me and we’ll post it for everyone’s benefit, because not every school’s semester ends at the same time.

    I have two right now:
    Butler- Tucker
    Western Kentucky- Bearden.

    These two teams will be helped because these kids can play now. Adds some depth and increases the talent level.

    For today, I’m looking at college basketball conferences so far this season:

    13) Big X:
    — Kansas (schedule #10)/Texas Tech (schedule #339) haven’t lost yet
    — Iowa State is 7-2 but has been missing four guys for various reasons; two of those guys came back two games ago. Cyclones’ bench minutes are #345, but depth is on the way.
    — West Virginia is 5-3, has very young guards, and I’m not sure how they get a lot better, unless those young guards suddenly become good young guards.
    — Texas is 5-3, losing at home to Radford/VCU. This is Shaka Smart’s 4th year at Texas- his teams at Texas have played tempo #306-212-316-194.

    When he was at VCU, Smart’s teams played tempo #69-156-173-91-22-70. Why the difference, other than pressing/trapping is hard unless your players are better athletes than your opponents.

    12) Big 14:
    — They’re playing 20 conference games now, so teams play two games in December.
    — Five teams started conference play 2-0; five started 0-2.
    — Illinois is 2-7, the only team under .500
    — Seven Big 14 teams are in KenPom.com‘s top 30
    — Nebraska, Northwestern are two most experienced teams in league.

    11) ACC:
    — Duke is #343 in experience, which is why college hoop handicapping has become so difficult, weighing talent against experience. I want Duke to play Nevada in March.
    — Virginia is only unbeaten team in the league.
    — Pitt was 7-1 before losing at home to Niagara; whoops- they start three freshmen.
    — Louisville is 6-2 vs schedule #86 in Chris Mack’s first season; great job so far.
    — ACC has eight teams in the top 32
    — Miami lost last four games, with three losses by 4 or fewer points.

    10) SEC:
    — Auburn/Tennessee are two highest-rated teams, a change from normal.
    — Kentucky is 7-1 vs schedule #319; they lost 118-84 to Duke- best team they’ve beaten is #71 NC-Greensboro.
    — South Carolina was in Final Four two years ago; they’re 21-20 since. Not good.
    — Texas A&M is 3-4 vs schedule #204; they’re experience team #274, Could be a down year.
    — Vanderbilt lost its star freshman PG Darius Garland for the season (knee)

    9) Big East:
    — St John’s is 8-0 vs schedule #322; how good are they?
    — Georgetown is 7-1 vs schedule #304; same question.
    — Only four Big East teams are listed in the top 50.
    — Creighton has made 45.8% of its 3’s (#2) so far this season.
    — If you were wondering, Indiana State (48.8%) is #1
    — Villanova is playing 5th-slowest tempo in country so far.

    8) Pac-12:
    — Only one team ranked in top 40 and Oregon is only 4-3.
    — USC is 0-3 vs top 70 teams; their five wins are vs teams ranked #198 or lower.
    — Washington is #1 in country in minutes continuity; they’re 6-3 with two top 10 losses (Auburn/Gonzaga).
    — UCLA is 6-2 vs schedule #229; they’re #351 in experience, with two key freshmen out for year with injuries. Best team they’ve beaten so far is #122 LMU.
    — Arizona State is 7-0 vs schedule #282, but they were 12-0 in pre-conference play LY, and wound up 20-12.

    7) AAC:

    — 4 of the slowest 15 tempos in America are teams in the AAC.
    — Temple is 7-2 vs schedule #155 in Fran Dunphy’s last season as head coach.
    — Central Florida is 6-2, with two losses by total of 3 points.
    — Wichita State is 4-3 vs schedule #112; they’re a total rebuild (#343 in MC).
    — Memphis is 4-4 vs schedule #54; Tigers start two freshmen, three seniors. Better beat the Tigers now; Penny Hardaway is going to dominate recruiting in Memphis, which will put them in the top 25 sooner rather than later.

    6) WCC:
    — #8-rated conference right now; they were 14th three years ago, #12 LY.
    — Gonzaga is to the WCC what UNLV was to the Big West 30 years ago; huge fish in a small pond that carries the league’s banner on national stage.
    — San Diego beat San Diego State, USF pounded Cal Wednesday; middle of pack in this league has improved a lot, but St Mary’s is a bit down.
    — LMU is playing pack-line defense like Virginia and it is working- they’re 9-1.
    — If BYU jumps into a league for football reasons, who replaces them in WCC? Hawai’i?

    5) Mountain West:
    — Nevada is 8-0 and starts five 5th-year seniors; will the coach be back next year?
    — Wolf Pack is only team in MW in top 60; its a one-bid league, unless someone beats Nevada in the conference tournament.
    — Fresno State is #17 experience team that is probably 2nd-best team in league; they’re 6-2 and start three seniors, two juniors.
    — Boise State is 2-5, with losses to Idaho State/Drake; could be a down year, after winning 20+ games the last six years.
    — UNLV is turning the ball over 24.4% of time and shooting 27.7% on the arc, which is why they’re 4-3 vs schedule #324- their first road game is Saturday at Illinois.

    4) Atlantic 14:
    — League was #10 LY and is #10 this year, their lowest ranks since 2007.
    — A-14 is down right now: #70 Davidson is their highest-rated team.
    — Saint Louis was touted this year, but they’re turning ball over 21.7% of time and making only 29.9% of their 3’s. Despite that, they’re 6-2 vs schedule #217.
    — VCU has had six coaches since 2002, and no losing records. Big fish, smallish pond, and no football to take resources away from basketball.
    — LaSalle changed coaches but change isn’t always positive; they’re 0-9 this season, with losses to Lafayette, Bucknell, Drexel, Grand Canyon- they wouldn’t be the best team in the freakin’ Patriot League.

    3) MAC:
    — Buffalo is legitimately good; they won at West Virginia, are #42 experience team.
    — Toledo is only other MAC team in top 100, so its likely another one-bid year.
    — Rockets are 8-1 and making 41.5% of their 3’s; they’re experience team #81.
    — You look at Kent State’s 7-1 record, then you look at schedule #343- no thanks.
    — Western Michigan is 4-4 vs schedule #314; they’re turning ball over 22.9% of time and making 29.5% of their 3’s, not a good combination.
    — Bowling Green has one winning season since 2010; their coach that year was fired because of an incident in a bar, where the coach was drunk and being a jerk. That coach is now at New Mexico State and his team is 7-1- some schools would’ve built the guy his own private bar.

    2) Missouri Valley;
    — Defections have crippled this league; Wichita State-Creighton were difference-makers.
    — Loyola-Chi is their only top 90 team, and they’ve lost three of last four games.
    — Evansville’s new coach is former NBA player Walter McCarty; Purple Aces are trying to play faster- they’ll be interesting to follow the next couple years.
    — Drake is experience team #116, but #304 in MC, so they’ve been cobbled together by transfers. Bulldogs are also on their third coach in three years, which doesn’t help, but they’re 5-1 so far this season.
    — Northern Iowa won 184 games from 2009-16, but they’re 33-37 the last 2+ seasons, so the coach’s seat has to be getting a little warm.

    1) Ivy:
    — Yale won at Miami, beat Cal, lost in OT at Memphis; their eFG% is #5 in country.
    — Harvard is 4-4 vs schedule #28, but they also lost at #274 Siena.
    — Columbia is 0-6 vs D-I teams, vs schedule #329. Could be a long winter.
    — Penn Quakers are 7-2, are experience team #63- they start two juniors, two seniors.
    — Cornell is #34 experience team, lost by only 8 at Syracuse- did Boeheim take it easy on the Big Red because his son plays for Cornell? (No, he didn’t)
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  14. #644
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    Top 6 picks for Week 14 of Westgate SuperBook contest

    1) Indianapolis Colts +5 (988)
    2) Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 (797)
    3) Los Angeles Rams -3 (791)
    4) Buffalo Bills -3 (761)
    5) New Jersey Giants -3.5 (711)
    6) Chicago Bears +3 (694)
    Season record: 40-35-3

    ********************************

    Saturday’s 6-pack
    Six interesting college hoop rivalry games for Saturday:
    — Xavier @ Cincinnati (-7)
    — Wisconsin @ Marquette (even)
    — Creighton @ Nebraska (-6)
    — Georgetown @ Syracuse (-11)
    — BYU (-3.5) @ Utah
    — Pitt @ West Virginia (-11)

    Tweet of the Day
    “We both gotta eat. I want to see him get a touchdown. I got four. I just care about my teammates, I want to see him get a touchdown. We work so hard throughout the week. It’s that relationship we have. I want to see everybody eat. Records come and go.”
    Titans’ RB Derrick Henry on why he didn’t want to try for a 5th TD Thursday nite

    Saturday’s quiz
    Who was the first coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars?

    Friday’s quiz
    Jacksonville Jaguars’ owner Shahid Khan made his fortune when he invented the seamless bumper that is used on cars now.

    Thursday’s quiz
    Jeff Fisher was the Tennessee Titans’ coach in their only Super Bowl appearance, against the Rams; he later became coach of the Rams.

    ***************************

    Saturday’s List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind…….

    13) With former basketball standout Kevon Looney in town with the Warriors to play the Bucks in Milwaukee Friday night, Milwaukee Hamilton HS held a ceremony at the school Thursday afternoon to retire Looney’s #5 jersey.

    A surprising thing happened; the whole Warriors’ team showed up- Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, even coach Steve Kerr……all of them showed up to honor their teammate/friend.

    Imagine being a kid at that school and seeing those guys in your gym? Pretty cool.

    12) Titans 30, Jaguars 9— Game is 7-2 Tennessee in 2nd quarter; Jaguars have 4th-and-goal on the 2-yard line but instead of kicking a gimme field goal, they go for it with the backup QB and they don’t get it. Titans run next play for a 99-yard TD, and school is out.

    I don’t give a rat’s ass about analytics; in these cases, if you’re Jacksonville you have to put points on the board in what was a tight, tense game, especially if you’re a losing team.

    I’ll say it this way: the Jaguars tackled with a lot less enthusiasm once that 4th down play failed. Thats a nice way of saying they stopped trying as hard- they quit.

    11) Washington Nationals have given out lot of deferred money in the past to pitchers Max Scherzer ($105M of $210M) and Stephen Strasburg ($70M of $175M), but only $10M of Patrick Corbin’s newly-signed $140M contract is deferred money.

    10) Of the 353 D-I college basketball teams, 27 are coached by former NBA players.

    9) Thru Week 13, best red zone teams, based on points/possession:
    Chiefs 5.75, Bengals 5.73, Bills 5.70, Steelers 5.69

    Worst red zone teams, based on ppp:
    Jets 3.87, 49ers 4.21, Jaguars 4.22, Lions 4.40

    8) Most drives that went into red zone this season:
    Rams 67, Saints/Chiefs 55, Buccaneers 47

    Fewest drives that went into red zone this season:
    Cardinals 22, Bills/Dolphins 23, Jaguars 27

    7) Three things about NFL officiating that bug me:

    a) They call too damn many holding penalties.
    b) They call way too many penalties on punts/kickoffs.
    c) When they call pass interference, a 2nd official usually also throws a flag, to “sell the call”

    6) Phoenix Suns are first team in the shot clock era (since 1955) to be held under 10 points in the first quarter of consecutive games.

    5) Big 14 finished their first round of conference games this week; home favorites were 5-4 vs spread, road favorites were 3-2, making favorites 8-6 vs spread overall.

    4) Here is why Washington Wizards will have a hard time trading John Wall: his contract is outrageous.

    2019-20: $38,150,000
    2019-20: $38,150,000
    2020-21: $41,202,000
    2021-22: $44,254,000
    2022-23: $47,306,000 (player option)

    Good luck getting someone to take that contract.

    3) DeAndre Jordan was a 45% career free throw shooter before this season; he is shooting 75.8% this year (72-95).

    Jordan is in his first year with the Dallas Mavericks, whose shooting coach is Peter Patton, who has been teaching basketball for 20+ years, including studying shooting under San Antonio Spurs’ assistant Chip Engelland. Coach Patton deserves a raise.

    2) NBA trade:
    — Cavaliers re-acquired G Matthew Dellavedova and F John Henson from the Bucks, along with a future 1st and 2nd-round draft pick.
    — Milwaukee got veteran PG George Hill, who was with coach Budenholzer in San Antonio; they also got Jason Smith and a 2nd-round draft pick from Washington.
    — Wizards acquired Sam Dekker from Cleveland.

    1) Best wishes to Redskins’ QB Alex Smith, who has an infection in his broken leg following multiple surgeries on the leg last month. Get well soon.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  15. #645
    Join Date
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    Sunday's Top Wager
    December 7, 2018
    By Bookmaker


    By Kyle Markus

    NFL Game Preview - Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears


    The Chicago Bears have been one of the most pleasant surprises in the NFL this year, but aren’t looked at as contenders in the same tier as teams like the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints. Chicago can make a push to enter that conversation as it will host the Rams this week in “Sunday Night Football.”

    Los Angeles has one of the best offenses in the NFL and has shown the ability to move the ball on everyone it has faced. The Bears have a very good defense and if they can solve the Rams an upset could be on the horizon.

    The Rams are currently in first place in the NFC and would love to finish as the top seed to guarantee home field throughout the postseason. Chicago can deliver a blow to that hope and help take another step toward wrapping up the NFC Central with a victory in this one. These two teams seem destined for the playoffs but they have bigger goals and this matchup should be a good one in NFL gambling.

    This NFL football game between the Los Angeles Rams and Chicago Bears will be held at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois at 8:20 p.m ET on Sunday, December 9th, 2018. The game will be nationally televised on NBC.

    We'll have NFL football odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game of the 2018 NFL season.

    Odds Analysis

    The Rams are listed as three-point favorites to win this contest. They are listed at -155 on the moneyline while the Bears come in as the +135 underdogs. The scoring total is listed at 51.5 points. It is a smaller total than some might expect but the conditions have to be considered as this will be an outside game in Chicago in December, which could make things tougher on the offenses.

    This primetime game has live betting capabilities, which opens things up for bettors even after kickoff. It’s a good way to pad the bankroll because there are options which can be taken advantage of once certain patterns emerge in the earlygoing of the first quarter in NFL odds.

    Player To Watch

    Khalil Mack -- The Rams’ passing game is potent, as quarterback Jared Goff is on the short list of MVP candidates. The best way to slow that down is by getting pressure on him, and Mack is the perfect person to call upon. He is a monster athlete and has accumulated nine sacks and five forced fumbles for the Bears this season.

    Mack was acquired from the Raiders before the season began and has elevated the play of the defense. The Rams have a star running back in Todd Gurley and he figures to get his numbers, but the key is whether or not the Rams will dominate through the air. The Chicago secondary is talented but the main objective will be getting pressure on Goff, and Mack will be the one leading the way.

    Injury Report

    Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has missed the past two games with a right shoulder injury. The defense led the way on Thanksgiving as Chicago captured a 23-16 win over the Lions, but fell in overtime to the Giants last time out.

    Trubisky has been practicing throughout the week and will be ready to rejoin the lineup. The Bears won four straight prior to his injury and the offense was really finding its groove. Trubisky has thrown for 2,469 yards with 20 touchdowns against nine interceptions, a big improvement from an up and down rookie season.

    Free NFL ATS Picks

    The Rams are a juggernaut, but this is a tough matchup. The Bears are an underrated team and get the game at home in conditions that should be more their style. The betting public figures to go for Los Angeles but this is the type of game that seems ripe for an upset.

    Jump on the Bears on the moneyline. Don’t forget about the live betting. It will allow gamblers to double down if things are going as expected early on in NFL gambling.

    NFL ATS Pick: Chicago Bears 27, Los Angeles Rams 24
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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