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Thread: Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

  1. #466
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    Friday’s 6-pack

    QB’s who’ve thrown the most pick 6’s in their careers:

    31— Brett Favre

    28— Dan Marino

    27— Drew Brees, Peyton Manning

    23— Philip Rivers, Vinny Testaverde

    22— Eli Manning, Carson Palmer

    20— Kerry Collins, Steve DeBerg

    Quote of the Day
    “I don’t know what his plans are, but I would say that at this point, we expect him to come back next week. We know he’s back in Pittsburgh and so we’re hoping to have some communications with him over the weekend, and we’re kind of expecting he’ll be back next week.”
    Steelers’ owner Art Rooney, talking about Le’Veon Bell

    Friday’s quiz
    Which two colleges did Russell Wilson play football for?

    Thursday’s quiz
    Steve Kerr played his college basketball at Arizona.

    Wednesday’s quiz

    Craig Morton started in Super Bowls for Dallas and the Denver Broncos.


    **************************

    Friday’s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here…….

    13) ESPN’s Mark Jackson is much better as an analyst in a 2-man booth than a 3-man booth; he tells some terrific stories when he has more airtime.

    In 1986, Jackson led the nation in assists; one of his teammates (Walter Berry) won the Wooden Award, symbolic of the year’s best college player, so obviously St John’s must’ve had a damn good season (they went 31-5), but this was the year after Chris Mullin went to the NBA and apparently there were internal issues with the team.

    In their fifth game of the year, St John’s was nursing a late lead and Jackson was dribbling so he would get fouled, make foul shots and preserve the lead, but Berry wanted the team to give the ball to him so he could score more, and from that point on, from the end of the fifth game to the 36th game, Berry and Jackson never spoke again that season. You just never know.

    12) Monday night, Enes Kanter had 23 points, 24 rebounds off the bench for the Knicks, as well as seven assists. Kanter is the first NBA player since Charles Barkley in 1986 to have a 20-20 game, and also have 5+ assists, in a game he didn’t start.

    11) In the Atlanta Hawks’ arena, you can get your haircut during the game. Not sure why you would pay major bucks to watch an NBA game, then spend even more money to not watch the game while they cut your hair. Then again, I don’t have much hair to cut.

    10) Speaking of the Hawks, Atlanta coach Lloyd Pierce was a college teammate of Steve Nash in his playing days at Santa Clara.

    9) Kansas City Chiefs outscored opponents 93-20 on the first drive of each half; thats 18 drives for each team.

    8) Miami Dolphins are only NFL team that hasn’t scored a point on their first drive of a game this season: nine drives, 42 plays, 198 yards, no points. No bueno.

    Jets kicked only one FG on their first drive of a game, but they also gave up a defensive TD, so they’ve actually been outscored 7-3 on their game-opening drives.

    7) Minnesota Vikings are playing better recently; in their last three games, the Vikings scored TD’s on their first drive of the game, going 68-91-65 yards for those TD’s.

    6) Rich Gannon was working the Charger-Seahawk game Sunday; Sebastian Janikowski was kicking for Seattle. Way back in 2000, Janikowski’s rookie year in Oakland, Gannon was the first holder Janikowski had during preseason, but Gannon said he was so bad at holding, they told him to forget about it and make punter Shane Lechler the holder.

    5) Boise State is a home underdog to Fresno State tonight, first time the Broncos have been a underdog on the Blue Turf since 1999.

    4) Pittsburgh Steelers are only team in NFL with only one divisional game left. Everyone plays a divisional game in Week 17.

    3) Last time Alabama had a Senatorial election, Nick Saban got 19,000 write-in votes. If he ever somehow got elected, Saban would have to decline; quite a pay cut from the $8M a year Saban makes now to the $175,000 or however much a senator makes.

    2) How would you like to be the person who ran for assembly in Nevada, and lost to a dead guy?

    72-year old Dennis Hof owned a brothel that was featured on the HBO show Cathouse; he passed away October 16, but he still won an election Tuesday in Nevada’s 36th Assembly District against Democratic educator Lesia Romanov.

    1) Le’Veon Bell posted a couple of Tweets this week with the text upside down; not sure how or why he did that, but it does look pretty cool.

    If Bell doesn’t report to the Steelers by 4:00 Tuesday, he can’t play this year, so he won’t make any of his $14.55M salary and he defeats the purpose of his holdout. Hopefully he is getting good advice, but that doesn’t seem too likely, unless he just doesn’t want to play anymore
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    Week 10 Best Bets - Sides
    November 8, 2018
    By Bookmaker


    Week 10 NFL Best Bets – Sides

    My 4-0 ATS run with these best bet pieces came to a screeching halt last week as the New York Jets couldn't overcome a disastrous day by QB Sam Darnold (4 INT's) and a very sloppy field Miami to keep that game within a FG. Had we seen just a little bit more ball security from Darnold, who knows what the 7-point loss might have actually turned into for New York, but all you can do is stomach the loss and move onto the next week.

    Despite the loss last week, I'm coming back with a play involving a team from the AFC East again as this division continues to be run by Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the Patriots. That probably won't change until one (or both) end up retiring – and who knows how long it will be until that happens – but with three of the four AFC East teams out on the road this week, there is at least one of them that deserves to be bet against in my eyes.

    Odds per - Bookmaker.eu

    Best Bet: Tennessee Titans +6.5

    It is those New England Patriots that I'm betting against this week as they go out on the road for a non-division battle with the Titans. This is a rematch of a Divisional round playoff game a year ago when the Patriots did what was expected of them as rested two-TD playoff home favorites, beating Tennessee 35-14 en route to yet another Super Bowl appearance. The playoff revenge factor is something that should be considered here in favor of the Titans, but by no means should it be the lone basis for this play.

    New England has looked impressive in recent weeks as they've won six straight games after starting 1-2 SU, and have gone 5-1 ATS in the process. That lone ATS defeat came by the 'hook' in their epic SNF showdown with Kansas City, so stepping in front of this Patriots train is not something you want to do lightly right now. However, four of those six wins did come at home, and the other two – at Buffalo and at Chicago – weren't exactly stellar performances. Beating Buffalo these days is like a parent beating their 6-year old child in backyard hoops, and the Chicago win was aided by two special teams TD's for New England and they still nearly let a last play Hail Mary attempt tie the game.

    When you go even further back and look at New England's performances on the road, you'll see it's where their two outright defeats have come. There was the 11-point defeat in Jacksonville – who like Tennessee this week, was a home underdog with playoff revenge – and the 16-point beating taken in Detroit against former New England DC Matt Patricia's new squad. Titans HC Mike Vrabel may have never coached in New England, but he spent the majority of his playing career there, so there are some comparisons to be made there as well.

    So while the 2018 Patriots might look like the Patriots we've all seen be AFC Champions nearly every year for the past decade, and a 6-game winning streak is what many will hang their hat on with backing New England this week, their home/road splits in 2018 have been drastically different. And if you ask me, this spread is priced more like if New England was at home, rather than out on the road.

    New England averages a full yard per play less on offense on the road (5.2) compared to at home (6.2) and their defense gives up a a half-yard more per play (6) on the road compared to at home (5.5). Those defensive numbers include the fact that the best offensive team they've played at home has been the Kansas City Chiefs, while the best offensive team they've faced on the road would have to be the Chicago Bears. There aren't too many people out there that would say the Chiefs and Bears offenses are all that equal, so it goes to show you just how much of a disparity there has been for the Patriots this year depending on their location.

    On the flip side, Tennessee's last effort at home was an ugly 21-0 loss to Baltimore, but they've since responded with a chance to win against the Chargers over in London, and a solid 14-point victory over the Cowboys in Dallas last week on MNF. Defensively this Titans team is legit once again, and with their offense generally being a run-heavy, ball-control attack, it's not like they have to change their identity much to come up with the typical gameplan to beat New England with long drives and keeping Brady and company on the sidelines. It was what helped them establish a 7-0 first quarter lead against the Pats in the playoffs last year before the wheels fell off for Tennessee in the 2nd quarter, and it's a strategy I believe we will see the Titans employ, and employ well for the full 60 minutes this week at home.

    Finally, you've also got to take a peek at the betting percentages on this game offered up at VegasInsider.com and as of this writing it shows 80%+ of the action already on the Patriots. That was too be expected with this run New England is on and just how well they've done ATS-wise in the Belichick era, but this line briefly opened up at -7 before seeing the juice bounce around at -6.5 currently. You'd think that those -7's would show up again with 80%+ of the action going that way, but that hasn't been the case. That suggests to me that oddsmakers know they put a hefty “Patriots tax” on this line from the outset, placing inherent value on the Titans already.

    With Tennessee on a 5-1 ATS run at home and a 10-3 ATS run against opponents with a winning record, I'll gladly scoop up those extra few points of value here (buying it up to +7 is always an option as well), and back the home dog to keep this game within a FG at worst.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    Saints at Bengals
    November 8, 2018
    By BetDSI


    by Tom Wilkinson

    NFL Betting Preview – Saints at Bengals


    You may think that Kansas City or New England is the hottest team in the league, but that is not the case, as the New Orleans Saints have won seven straight games and they handed the Los Angeles Rams their first loss of the season last week.

    The Saints get a tough road test this week, as they visit the Cincinnati Bengals who come into this game at 5-3 and they are a half game out of first place in the AFC North. Let’s look at this Week 10 matchup that can be seen on FOX on Sunday and NFL picks.

    Date and Time: Sunday, November 11, 1:00 p.m. ET
    Location: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
    NFL Odds at BetDSI: Saints -5.5, O/U 54
    Saints vs. Bengals TV Coverage: FOX


    The Saints are 7-1 this season and they have not had it easy of late, as the record of their last four opponents is 22-12-1. The Saints get another tough team this week, as the Bengals are 5-3. The question is which team will the Saints face? Will it be a Cincinnati team that rolled over Baltimore or the team that was blown out by Kansas City? The Bengals are probably fortunate to have won five games this season considering they rank last in the NFL in total defense.

    The Bengals have been shredded by the Falcons, Steelers, Chiefs and Buccaneers this season. That is a major concern, as the Bengals face Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense. The Saints are led by Drew Brees and he has a lot of weapons around him led by Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. The Saints also signed Dez Bryant on Wednesday.

    The Saints are rolling right now, but head coach Sean Payton said to the media that his team still needs to improve. “No halfway report cards or any of that. None of that. The point is though, and it is a good point, there’s eight games left. In other words, there is a ton of football left. There are a ton of things we have to improve on and we need to improve on, or it is going to hurt us later.”

    On the other side, the Bengals will be without their top offensive weapon, as A.J. Green is out. “Obviously it puts a lot of pressure on us as individuals because we know what he brings to the table,” tight end C.J. Uzomah said to the media, “I mean, he’s A.J. Green. A.J. Dream is what we call him — it’s a dream to have him on the team.” Cincinnati still has Joe Mixon to run the ball and Tyler Boyd has developed into a good receiver, so the Bengals can move the ball.

    Key Stats

    The Saints are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. The Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf. The Saints are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games.

    The Saints are 40-17-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Bengals are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Bengals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.

    Looking at the total, the Under is 17-5 in the Bengals last 22 games in November. The Under is 34-16-1 in the Bengals last 51 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

    Saints vs. Bengals Picks

    This is a huge letdown spot for the Saints after facing the Rams last week. The question is whether or not the Cincinnati defense can stop the New Orleans offense. If I had any confidence in the Bengals defense I would definitely take the Bengals, but I am leery because the defense is so bad. I do think the Bengals will be able to score on a poor New Orleans defense and I expect the Saints to put up their share of points, so I think the best play in this contest is to take the game over the total at BetDSI.

    Saints vs. Bengals Pick: Over 54 at BetDSI
    Saints vs. Bengals Score Prediction: Saints 34, Bengals 31
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    By: Brandon DuBreuil


    BIG BEN IN FOR A BIG NIGHT?

    Happy Thursday! Week 10 kicks off in Pittsburgh tonight and, as per tradition, we kick off today’s notes with a prop (or two). Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers are hosting Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers tonight in a matchup that features two quarterbacks that are playing great football. Both could put up some big numbers tonight in what should be a tight but high-scoring game (Pit -4, o/u 52), but we like Big Ben’s matchup might be a little more enticing.

    Roethlisberger is always on the cusp of having a huge game at home and under the bright lights, he’s even better. In 25 career primetime games at Heinz Field, Big Ben is 21-4, has averaged 284.2 passing yards, and has thrown 3.3 touchdowns to every interception. On Thursdays, he has a 6-0 record and has averaged 288.3 passing yards. The Panthers are hot but they aren’t a terrible matchup for quarterbacks, as they rank 14th as a defensive unit in DVOA but only 20th against the pass. Big Ben loves the bright lights and we’re backing him to go Over his passing yards total of 300.5.


    MAKE IT TWO WITH JUJU

    If Roethlisberger is going to have a big game through the air, chances are one of his receivers is going to have a nice night as well. We’re going to double down on the Steelers’ air attack and put some additional money behind JuJu Smith-Schuster. The second-year receiver out of USC has hit a bit of a dry spell after his torrid start to the season but there’s reason to believe a big performance is coming on TNF. First, he saw his targets get back on track last week with nine after he had just six two weeks ago against Cleveland. Second, Smith-Schuster is one of the most productive slot receivers in the league and the Panthers routinely get burned from the position. Through nine weeks, the Panthers have allowed slot receivers Adam Humphries, Russell Shepard, Tyler Boyd, and Cole Beasley to combine for 24 catches on 27 targets for 339 yards and three touchdowns. We expect JuJu to add his name to that list with a big night and we’re taking the Over 77.5 on his receiving yards total.


    DARNOLD RULED OUT

    New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold (foot) has been ruled out for Sunday’s home game against Buffalo, leaving Josh McCown to start. Darnold was spotted in a walking boot on Wednesday and will now get to rest through the Jets’ Week 11 (or longer). Darnold has really struggled of late with two touchdowns and seven interceptions in his last three games so the break comes at a good time.

    McCown was the Jets’ starter last season until he broke his hand in Week 14 — that’s also the last time he saw the field in a regular-season game. McCown is 39 years old and a bit of a journeyman but at this point, he’s probably an upgrade at QB for the Jets. Darnold just isn’t ready yet and seems to be hitting the proverbial rookie wall. This week, however, McCown gets a tough matchup with a Buffalo pass defense that is ranked second in overall DVOA and third against the pass. The Bills held Mitch Trubisky to 135 passing yards last week and held Tom Brady out of the end zone two weeks ago. Last year, McCown threw for just 187 and 140 yards in two starts against Buffalo. We expect a similar number this week and we’re taking the Under on McCown’s passing yards total.


    FOURNETTE ON TRACK

    Jacksonville running back Leonard Fournette practiced in full on Wednesday, putting him on track to return after a four-game absence. The Jaguars have struggled mightily without their star running back, losing four in a row and scoring just 11.5 points per game in the process.

    Fournette has a solid matchup in his return against a Colts defense that is allowing 94.9 yards per game to opposing backfields, but it’s unclear as to how he’ll be used. Jacksonville can’t afford to lose him again and giving him 18-20 touches in his first game back would increase his risk of re-injuring his hamstring. Jacksonville has Carlos Hyde and T.J. Yeldon behind Fournette and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them ease Fournette back this week with 12-15 touches. We’re not fading Fournette completely because of his importance to the Jaguars’ offense, so for this week, we’re passing on his yards total and instead are backing him to score a touchdown at any time.


    BELICHICK VS BUTLER

    New England heads to Tennessee this week where one of the top storylines is how cornerback Malcolm Butler will fare against his old team. Yes, the same team that benched him for the entirety of Super Bowl 52. Something happened in Minnesota during Super Bowl week. It’s a bit of a surprise that in 2018 we still don’t know what happened, but Bill Belichick knows, and Tom Brady probably know as well, and it’ll be very interesting to see how they approach the game this weekend. We’re betting on them attacking Butler as much as possible.

    Butler has been a bust of a free-agent signing so far and has allowed a league-high 618 receiving yards to opposing wideouts on the season. Against the Patriots, he’ll do most of his coverage against Josh Gordon who is coming off a 5-130-1 line against Green Bay in what was his best game of the season. Gordon has been inconsistent in his Pats career (we missed badly on his Under last week) but this week he has an easy coverage matchup and we believe Belichick and Brady will be motivated to throw at Butler early and often. Take the Over for his receiving yards total.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    Week 10 Best Bets - Totals
    November 8, 2018
    By Bookmaker


    Week 10 NFL Best Bets – Totals

    We weren't able to get there with the 'over' in the Steelers/Ravens rematch last week as the Ravens settled for too many short FG's early and the pace to cash an 'over' ticket could never really get there. Had the Ravens been able to score a game-tying TD late to force OT at 23-23, I may be singing a different tune today, but losses happen and you can't let them linger and affect your handicapping process going forward.

    So it's on to this week's betting board and there are quite a few total plays that appear quite attractive. However, I've isolated a single total option that I believe to be the best one of the bunch, so let's get right to it:

    Odds per - Bookmaker.eu

    Best Bet: Washington/Tampa Bay Under 51

    Backing 'unders' in Buccaneers games this year has been quite hazardous to one's bankroll with Tampa sporting a 7-1 O/U mark, but this matchup does set up to likely be a lower-scoring game for a variety of reasons.

    First off, Washington suffered multiple injuries on their O-line a week ago, as both starting G's Brandon Scherff and Shawn Lauvao left and did not return. T Morgan Moses was banged up as well, with T Trend Williams still on the shelf. The first three of those names are listed as day-to-day on the current injury report so they could still end up suiting up on Sunday, but even if they do, they won't be at 100% and that spells trouble for QB Alex Smith and the time he may have in the pocket.

    Tampa's defense may not resemble anything of a stellar unit this year, but put them up against injured starters or less talented back-ups for the majority of the game and the Bucs pass rush should be able to cause plenty of chaos.

    Secondly, knowing their O-line is in shambles, Washington's going to have to go back to either running the ball a lot or playing that dink-and-dunk quick passing game that Smith has excelled at throughout his career. Getting the ball out of Smith's hands will be the ultimate goal, and that in turns means that the likelihood of those huge chunk plays happening – that have gashed Tampa all year – pretty slim.

    The Redskins haven't exactly been a big chunk offense as is this year, and with five straight games of putting up 23 or fewer points – including 20 or less the last three weeks – having the Redskins do their part in putting this game 'over' the number is going to be tough.

    On the flip side of things, Tampa's going to eventually realize that getting in these shootout type games is not their path to success. Granted, the ship has likely already sailed on the Bucs having a “successful” season, but when two of their three wins have come in the only two contests where they held their opponent to 23 or fewer points, you would hope that emphasizing strong defensive play would help turn this thing around.

    Turnovers by Tampa's offense has done their defense no favors, so protecting the ball is going to be critical again for Tampa this week, and with Washington coming into this week as one of the better turnover margin teams in the league (+7), you've got to figure that continues to be a point of emphasis for the Bucs.

    Finally, because the Bucs 'over' record has been so good this year and many of those 'overs' have been no doubters, the high side of this total was always going to attract plenty of money. VegasInsider.com shows about 75% of the money on this total on the high side, and yet unlike in past weeks when that type of action has forced a move, this week's number has basically stood pat at 51. Washington's 3-9 O/U run in their last 12 games likely has something to do with that, as does Tampa's 0-4 O/U mark at home after consecutive road tilts.

    This game should top out somewhere in the mid-to-high 40's when all is said and done, as long as a multitude of turnovers from either side don't continuously give the opposing offenses short fields to work with. Washington's on a 1-5 O/U run when facing a losing team, 1-4 O/U after scoring 14 or fewer points, while Tampa is actually 4-10 O/U in their last 14 at home.

    Going against the grain is something I've never been shy about doing, as this week I think that run of Tampa Bay 'overs' that the majority of bettors is counting on to continue comes to a grinding halt.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    Week 10 Best Bets - Teasers
    November 8, 2018
    By BetOnline.ag


    NFL Week 10 Exotic Betting Options

    When I was writing the intro to last week's piece, I would have never guessed that I could essentially copy and paste the same intro a week later. But here we are, fresh off another teaser loss by a “measly half-point” as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the ones who victimized me this time around.

    Tampa's 14-point defeat wasn't enough to cover the +13.5 points I had teased them up to, as yet another example as to why it's the numbers and not the teams that are more important when playing teasers. Teasing teams through those key numbers of 3/7/10/14 are of the utmost importance overall, and while I was able to go through +7, +10, and even +13 with the Bucs last week, it still wasn't good enough.

    Hopefully this streak of losing teasers by a half-point ends at two, although, when you look out at the NFL betting board this week you can already see plenty of potential for it to happen again with a handful of spreads sitting in the -5 to -6.5 range currently. But being the glutton for punishment that I am, I'm back at it again this week as I try to get back in the winner's circle with these teased lines on a couple of home underdogs from the AFC North.

    Odds per - BetOnline.ag

    Week 10: Two-team, 7-point Teaser Best Bet
    Cleveland (+13) – Cincinnati (+12.5)


    The Atlanta Falcons were the half of last week's teaser that I did get right as they went into Washington and dismantled the Redskins from start to finish, but I'm not so confident they can have a repeat performance this week. The Falcons are in Cleveland to take on a Browns team that's trying to get back on track after some coaching changes a week ago, as Cleveland has once again become one of the teams that everyone loves to fade.

    The initial spread for this game opened up with Atlanta as a -4 favorite, but as the Falcons have won three in a row and appear to be making a strong playoff push right now, that positive support combined with the negative sentiments bettors tend to have with Cleveland has pushed the number all the way to -6 currently. A move like that makes it rather tempting to come back in on Cleveland, but in my eyes, the safer route to go is teasing the Browns up now as they try to end this four-game losing streak they are currently on.

    This is the first time all year that Atlanta has played on the road in consecutive games, and as a dome team, outdoors on the road in November hasn't exactly been a friend to the Falcons organization. Atlanta was 1-2 ATS on the road at outdoor venues from November on a year ago, and all three games were decided by a FG. Throw in their two road playoff games @ LA and @ Philly and you'll see that only their win against the Rams (26-13) was decided by more than five points, but that's still right on this week's teased number, and it's not like outdoors in L.A really has a “chilling” effect on opponents.

    Cleveland looked to be poised through the first half of the year to take those positive steps forward their fan base has been waiting years to see, but back-to-back losses by 15+ points has squashed much of that momentum. However, those two defeats came against the likes of Pittsburgh and Kansas City, no slouches offensively in their own right, and while Atlanta's offense is of a similar caliber, the Falcons defense is arguably the worst of the bunch.

    Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield has now had a full week of practice (along with one game) under his belt with new Browns OC Freddie Kitchens and we should see much more of a comfort level there this week. With Atlanta's defense ranking T30th in yards per play allowed (6.3), Mayfield and that Cleveland attack should find plenty of success again this week – they scored 21 on KC's 6.2 yards per play allowed defense last week – and then it becomes a matter of how tight the defense can hold things here. And as I said earlier, taking the +6 on the outright line is tempting, but given it's still the Browns, I have much more confidence in them keeping this game within 10 points at worst.

    On to the Bengals now, who are the benefactors of quite the scheduling spot overall. Cincinnati is coming off their bye week as having an extra week to prepare never hurts, but with New Orleans (another dome team) out on the road in November off their huge win over the Rams, it's hard not to expect a bit of a letdown from the Saints this week.

    Yet, just like we've seen with the Falcons spread, the Saints opening number of -4.5 has been bumped up all week to it's current range and could end up even higher by the time Sunday rolls around. A national audience saw New Orleans knock off the league's last remaining unbeaten team a week ago so there will be plenty of support on that basis alone, and it's probably inflated this line a bit too much already.

    Outside of potentially being without WR A.J Green, this situtational spot couldn't really set up any better for Cincinnati, and with two suspect defense squaring off, this should easily be a one-possession game either way. The Bengals are on a 4-1 ATS run overall against a winning team, and with a 9-2 ATS run at home going against a winning road team, taking them on the spread is a possibility.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    Jets QB McCown to start vs. Bills
    November 8, 2018
    By The Associated Press


    FLORHAM PARK, N.J. (AP) Josh McCown is going from mentor to starter this week for the New York Jets.

    The 39-year-old quarterback will be under center Sunday against the Buffalo Bills in place of injured rookie Sam Darnold, who's sidelined with a strained right foot.

    ''I'm ready to rule him out as a starter for this week,'' coach Todd Bowles said of Darnold on Thursday. ''I don't know if I'll rule him out yet for the game.''

    That means Darnold still could potentially be the No. 2 quarterback on Sunday. If not, Davis Webb would be promoted from the practice squad to serve as McCown's backup.

    Either way, the starting job is McCown's - at least for this week.

    ''I'm extremely comfortable with him,'' Bowles said. ''We talk all the time. He understands the game and the team, and we see things the same way. So I'm comfortable.''

    McCown has not taken a snap in a regular-season game this season as the Jets have focused on developing Darnold. The No. 3 overall pick won the job out of training camp, but was injured during New York's 13-6 loss at Miami last Sunday.

    McCown was the Jets' starter last season and had a career year before being sidelined the last three games with a broken left hand. Since the summer, McCown has spoken highly of Darnold and expressed excitement about being able to have a hand in the youngster's development.

    Darnold has received lots of advice and tips from McCown on the sideline and practice field. Now, he'll have no choice but to watch.

    ''I say it all the time: That's why we do this, to play,'' McCown said Wednesday when Darnold's injury was announced. ''If that's the case, you're torn because your friend and a teammate, it means he can't go. In that regard, I don't wish that on anybody, but at the same time as a professional, as a backup quarterback you have to serve your team in that role and go in and play winning football.

    ''That's what's fun, that's what you look forward to and that's why you play this game. And, we'll go out and compete.''

    The Jets are ranked 29th in overall offense, including 28th in the passing game. Some of the struggles can be attributed to the inexperience of Darnold, who has an NFL-leading 14 interceptions. During New York's current three-game losing streak, the rookie has thrown two touchdown passes and seven INTs.

    So, some might consider the injury a blessing in disguise. It allows Darnold to take a breather and give McCown a chance to perhaps get the offense back on track.

    ''Obviously, Josh has played a long time in this league,'' wide receiver Jermaine Kearse said. ''So throughout the weeks, he sees things a lot quicker. Just the mental aspects, he's a lot further, just with his experience and being in the league. So, him just being able to see things a lot quicker, you know, the tempo kind of picked up a little bit.''

    Bowles made it clear, however, that this is no long-term solution. When Darnold is healthy, he'll step right back into the starting role.

    ''Yeah,'' Bowles said, ''he's our quarterback.''

    Even if McCown is playing well when Darnold is fully healthy?

    ''Sam is our quarterback,'' Bowles answered.

    Bowles was then asked why that would automatically be the case with Darnold.

    ''Because he's our starter and he won the job,'' the coach said. ''I feel comfortable with him in there and I feel comfortable with Josh in there.''

    While Darnold is the easy target and he has shouldered the blame for the struggles on offense, the Jets have several other culprits. Center Spencer Long has dealt with a finger injury that has led to several wayward snaps out of the shotgun, disrupting the timing of plays. Wide receivers Quincy Enunwa and Robby Anderson have been dealing with ankle injuries, and there have been blown plays and dropped passes by several players.

    ''Like I've said, we didn't play well as an offense,'' Bowles said. ''He didn't play well last game, but there's a couple people that have had bad games here and there, so we go from there.''

    Offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates has taken some heat, as well. The Jets are 18th in points with 198 and have scored just 17 touchdowns on offense. They also rank 30th in the league in first-down success (15.8 percent) and third-down conversions (30.8 percent).

    ''We have to score more points and that's on me,'' Bates said. ''I need to put our players in better positions to be successful, need to put our players in better position to score touchdowns and that's my responsibility. We have to score points in this league to win football games.''

    NOTES: CB Trumaine Johnson was a full participant at practice for the first time in more than a month after being sidelined with an injured right quadriceps. He's planning to play Sunday. ''Man, it's been a month and a couple days, so I'm definitely ready,'' he said. ''Just sitting out there supporting the team and my teammates is a different feeling, but I'm anxious to get back out there.'' ... Long (knee/finger), Anderson (ankle), Enunwa (ankle), TE Neal Sterling (concussion) and NT Steve McLendon (ankle) didn't practice. ... LG James Carpenter (shoulder) was limited.


    ************************


    Mack, Robinson set to return to Bears
    November 8, 2018
    By The Associated Press


    LAKE FOREST, Ill. (AP) Two-time All-Pro pass rusher Khalil Mack and top receiver Allen Robinson look as if they're just about ready to return after missing the Chicago Bears' past two games because of injuries.

    Both players practiced without limitations Thursday for the second consecutive day.

    The NFC North-leading Bears hope to have them back in the lineup against the Detroit Lions at Soldier Field on Sunday.

    ''These are strange deals because, literally, as you're going through it (you're) trying to figure out where they're at on a day-to-day basis,'' coach Matt Nagy said Thursday. ''Where are you at? Can you go 100 percent? Can you not? How do you feel? And we need to take that into consideration and discuss that, which leads up to game time and then how much, if so.''

    Robinson sent strong signals that he intends to play, saying he's ''100 percent'' after a groin injury kept him from playing in victories over the struggling New York Jets and Buffalo Bills. He has 25 catches for 285 and two touchdowns in six games after signing a three-year contract with Chicago in March.

    Robinson missed just about all of last season with Jacksonville after tearing the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee early in the opener. He was brought along slowly in the preseason as he worked his way back while trying to learn a new system and develop a rapport with quarterback Mitchell Trubisky.

    ''I'm feeling great, and I'm definitely anxious to get back out there,'' Robinson said. ''It's been a tough couple weeks, just having to watch the game from the sideline, so I'm excited.''

    Mack, who did not make himself available for comment, got off to a huge start with the Bears following a trade from Oakland just before the opener. He had five sacks and four forced fumbles through the first four games. But he suffered an ankle injury early in an overtime loss at Miami on Oct. 14 and was largely a nonfactor the following week when New England beat Chicago at Soldier Field.

    Mack had not missed a game since Oakland drafted him with the fifth overall pick in 2014, before sitting out the past two. And he still was adjusting to defensive coordinator Vic Fangio's system even though he sure looked dominant before he got hurt.

    ''He didn't practice much the two weeks he's missed ... so he's not where he needs to be or where we want him to be,'' Fangio said. ''But he's certainly prepared enough to go out there and play if his ankle will let him.''
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    Top Total Plays - Week 10
    by Kyle Markus

    The “over” hit on “Thursday Night Football,” continuing a yearlong trend of high scores. The rest of the Week 10 games will be held this weekend, and it will be interesting to see how many of them continue the offensive dominance we have seen so often to this point.

    The oddsmakers are well aware of what is going on and have gradually ticked up the scoring totals. Even so, the offensive fireworks have continued and the “over” has been the right call the majority of the time. Here are some of the best choices on total plays in Week 10 of the NFL season:

    The Buffalo Bills’ offense is historically inept, and it lived down to that billing last week against the Bears. It was so bad that Chicago put up a bunch of easy scores and the “over” hit. The Bills are facing off with the New York Jets on Sunday and the scoring total is at a microscopic 36.5 points. Even that is too high as these teams are going to put the sport back a couple decades with their effort. Take the “under” in this one.

    The New Orleans Saints are hitting the road to face the Cincinnati Bengals. Both offenses are high-powered and the oddsmakers have put the scoring total at 54 points. New Orleans is usually not quite as explosive on the road, and the Bengals are missing star receiver A.J. Green. Those two factors should keep this game “under” the scoring total.

    The Chicago Bears offense has been impressive lately, and so has their defense. The Bears are hosting the Detroit Lions and the total is only 44 points. That number looks way too low. Both teams have the capability to put up points, so bang the “over” in this one. This is looking like one of the best bets of the week.

    The Jacksonville Jaguars have not been as dominant defensively this season as expected, and their scoring total against the Indianapolis Colts is listed at 46.5 points. Colts star quarterback Andrew Luck has been great lately but look for Jacksonville to step up in this matchup. This one is going to be lower-scoring than expected, and roll with the “under.”

    The Los Angeles Chargers are going to be double digit favorites on the road against the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders might be the worst team in the NFL and have a Swiss Cheese defense. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is going to light it up in this one. The Raiders will throw a lot late as they try to come back and a score in the fourth quarter will help the “over” hit in this matchup.

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    Vegas Money Moves - Week 10
    November 9, 2018
    By Micah Roberts


    After three straight weeks of losing to the NFL, Nevada sports books know exactly what teams they have to beat down in Week 10 action to halt the losing.

    "Another week of fun," laughed CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "You can tell just by the betting patterns this week that the public is dialed in on five teams and the week is basically going to come down to how we fare in those games. We're going to either do extremely well or get smoked. It won't be one of those Sunday's where we grind out a 5-to-6 percent win."

    The weighted five-team public parlay, something that has sent the books reeling the past three weeks now comes with more cash behind it. The public is flush with cash right now and they're content on riding the hot streak and pressing rather than socking some away for Black Friday shopping.

    "They're all short favorites and a couple are on the road," Simbal said of the public plays. "They like Atlanta (-6 at Cleveland), the Saints (-5.5 at Cincinnati), New England (-6.5 at Tennessee), the Bears (-6.5 vs Lions), and Eagles (-7 vs. Cowboys)."

    Those same teams are also tilting the scales at William Hill's sports books across the country. The Falcons have 96 percent of the tickets written in that game, the Saints have 85 percent, The Patriots have 93 percent, the Bears have 84 percent and the Eagles have 86 percent. That is a collective effort by the masses to crush the books again, this time paying at 20-to-1 odds from a five-teamer. I love it. Instead of a $50 parlay like last week, they come with a $100 parlay. The action should be huge everywhere.

    "Compounding our risk on those games is that we've got sharp money laying the Eagles as well," Simbal said. "They laid -6, -6.5 and we're at -7 (-120) now."

    The Cowboys have lost all four road games and last two overall with weak offensive performances while the Eagles come off a bye fluttering with so many questions at 4-4, covering just three times. The Cowboys average road score has been 13-19 and the total for this game is at 43.5. All four of the Eagles home games have stayed Under an all four of the Cowboys road games have also stayed Under.

    That was the only game where the sharps piled on with the public. Simbal said he did get some help from the wise-guys on one of the big public games to balance out their liability.

    "We did get some Bengals money, and I'm happy about that," he said. "They took +5.5 so we didn't have to make that move to -6."

    CG Tech books have the only Saints -5 number while most others are -5.5 with the exception of MGM books who are -4.5, a certain sign they have some heavy Bengals action as well. Bengals WR A.J. Green is expected to miss the game with a foot injury and new Saints WR Dez Bryant also won't play.

    "They also bet the Under in that game as well," said Simbal. "We went from 54 down to 53.5." The high number in town is Station Casinos at 54.5, a sign that they're already in parlay protection mode after being peppered by them the last three weeks, maybe more than most books because of their clientele of locals on the outskirts of Las Vegas.

    "We also got some sharp Cardinals action at +17 and +16.5, as well as the Under (50)," said Simbal who now has the Chiefs as 16-point favorites with a total at 49.5.

    The Chiefs have been one of those popular public teams all season due to being an NFL-best 8-1 ATS. as well as scoring 36 ppg, but the large spread scared most away.

    "They laid the Bucs -2.5 and also bet them on the money-line early at -130," Simbal said. CG books have the money-line all the way up to -150. The Wynn and Westgate have the highest number at -160. The early move was spurred by the Redskins being without Pro Bowl tackle Trent Williams, as well as RB Chris Thompson and deep threat WR Paul Richardson. The Bucs defense allows 414 ypg and 34 ppg and they have the worst turnover margin (-15) in the league also. It should be a fun game. The totals sits at 50.5 at CG books.

    "Jacksonville was played early by a respected bettor at +3.5 and also at +3.5 (-120)," said Simbal who now has the Colts -3 (EVEN) and a total at 46.5. All of Las Vegas is at -3 EV with the exception of the South Point who are at -2.5 because they use exclusively flat numbers. They're a good indicator on what will happen in the market so if you like the Colts, wait a bit, and if you like Jacksonville get the +3 and lay the -120 happily.

    One other game with some large action was the Seattle money taking +10 and also Under 51. CG books have the Rams -9.5 and the total at 50.5. The Rams are currently on a 1-5 ATS run showing they may be a bit overrated. The public still loves the Rams, but they just can't trust them to cash so they stay off it.

    We'll see how this all plays out Sunday. The public has the hot hand, but the edge always circles back to the house.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    Gridiron Angles - Week 10
    November 10, 2018
    By Vince Akins

    NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

    -- The Patriots are 11-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) since Oct 09, 2016 when at least their last two games have gone under the total.

    NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

    -- The Bills are 0-12 ATS (-17.3 ppg) since Dec 17, 2005 as a dog coming off a loss as a home dog where they scored less than expected.

    TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:


    -- The Cardinals are 13-0 OU (12.2 ppg) since Sep 20, 2015 on the road coming off a game where David Johnson had at least 40 receiving yards.

    NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

    -- The Chiefs are 0-13-2 OU (-8.0 ppg) since Dec 13, 2015 at home coming off a game where they allowed less points than expected.

    NFL O/U OVER TREND:

    -- The Lions are 10-0 OU (12.5 ppg) since Nov 22, 2009 coming off a loss as a road dog of more than three points where they scored less than 14 points.

    -- The Buccaneers are 0-13 ATS (-9.65 ppg) when they are at home after two away losses.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    Total Talk - Week 10
    November 10, 2018
    By Chris David


    Week 9 Recap

    Another winning week for ‘under’ bettors (7-6) and the low side is now 28-16 (63.6%) over the last three weeks. There wasn’t much action in the second-half in Week 9 and that helped produce a 10-3 ‘under’ record for bettors wagering on the final 30 minutes. Through nine weeks, the ‘under’ sits at 68-66 (50.7%) overall.

    2018 TOTAL RESULTS - GAME & HALVES

    O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
    Week 9 6-7 8-5 3-10

    O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
    Year-to-Date 66-68 68-66 63-67-4

    2018 RESULTS - OTHER

    O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
    Week 9 2-3 1-3 1-1 0-0

    O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
    Year-to-Date 21-16 15-23 15-10 5-2

    Line Moves and Public Leans

    Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 10 as of Saturday morning per BookMaker.eu.

    Detroit at Chicago: 47 to 44
    New Orleans at Cincinnati: 55 to 54
    Seattle at L.A. Rams: 51 to 50

    Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 10 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

    N.Y. Giants at San Francisco: Over 91%
    L.A. Chargers at Oakland: Under 87%
    Jacksonville at Indianapolis: Under 86 %
    Atlanta at Cleveland: Over 81%
    Miami at Green Bay: Under 76%

    Divisional Matchups

    A large portion of the ‘under’ tickets (23-15) this season have taken place in divisional games and that includes a 3-1 mark to the low side last Sunday. Over the last three weeks, the ‘under’ is 10-2 in these spots and we’ve seen a fair share of duplicate total outcomes in the rematch games.

    Week 8: Steelers-Browns (Over, Over)
    Week 9: Jets-Dolphins (Under, Under), Steelers-Ravens (Under, Under)

    We have five divisional games on tap and two of them are rematches (LA-OAK, SEA-LAR).

    Buffalo at N.Y. Jets: This is the lowest total (36 ) on the board and the third time this season that Buffalo has had a total close in the thirties. The ‘over’ went 2-1 in those games but that’s because the Bills allowed 47 in Week 1 to the Ravens and 41 last Sunday to the Bears. Both teams are a mess offensively and each club will be starting backup quarterbacks on Sunday so you could probably argue that the number should be lower. The ‘over/under’ has gone 2-2 between the pair over the last two seasons.

    Jacksonville at Indianapolis: Both teams enter with rest (see below) and the week off has done wonders for offensive units this season. Jacksonville dominated Indy last season (27-0, 30-10) but QB Andrew Luck didn’t play in those games. We mention that because he’s 6-2 in his career vs. the Jaguars and the Colts have averaged 28.6 PPG. If you’re leaning high, you need Jacksonville’s offense (16.8 PPG) to improve and that could happen with the return of running back Leonard Fournette.

    Detroit at Chicago: Not an easy total to handicap and even though the pro bettors have knocked the number down, the Bears have shown an ‘over’ lean in their last five games (4-1). Detroit started the season with a 5-1 ‘over’ run but its offense has disappeared the last two weeks (14, 9) and that’s led to a pair of ‘under’ tickets. The ‘under’ is on a 4-1 run in this series.

    L.A. Chargers at Oakland: These teams met in Week 5 from Los Angeles and the Chargers posted a 26-10 win and the ‘under’ (51 ) was never in doubt. Less than a month later, they meet in Oakland and the total is in the same neighborhood (50) which has me scratching my head. I usually like to play a vice versa angle in the rematch when the combined points go well below or well above the closing number in the first encounter. This would fit here but the Chargers defense (15 PPG) has been on point in their last four games and the Raiders offense (17.6 PPG) has been inconsistent this season. Make a note that Oakland has played better at home offensively (28.7 PPG) and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a solid effort, especially since most bettors will be pressing the three late afternoon favorites this Sunday.

    Seattle at L.A. Rams: One of those three favorites is the Rams (-9 ) and they were handed their first loss last Sunday at New Orleans. Some pundits may label this matchup for L.A. as a ‘sandwich spot’ with the Rams meeting Kansas City in Mexico City next Monday. These teams squared off in Week 5 from Seattle and L.A. earned a 33-31 decision as the ‘over’ (50 ) connected in the third quarter. Since the Rams moved back to Los Angeles, the pair have played to a pair of low-scoring (9-3, 16-10) games at the Coliseum. The Seahawks have been a solid ‘under’ (6-2) team this season but they’ve only faced two legit offenses (Rams, Chargers) and they allowed 33 and 25 in those games. I don’t put a lot of stock into off-the-field factors since we’re handicapping professionals but if you do use emotional factors in your handicapping, Los Angeles is dealing with its first loss last Sunday plus two unfortunate incidents (shooting, fires) that are much bigger than the game.

    Dallas at Philadelphia: (See Below)

    Fifty Something

    Despite seeing plenty of ‘under’ tickets connect recently at the betting counter, we’ve still got a handful of high numbers posted. Totals that closed in the fifties last weekend watched the ‘over’ go 3-1. If you include this past Thursday’s outcome between the Panthers and Steelers, the ‘over’ is 18-17 in games that closed at 50 or higher.

    Listed below are the games with totals listed in the fifties for Week 10 along with their ‘over/under’ record listed in parenthesis.

    Atlanta (6-2) at Cleveland (5-4)
    New Orleans (4-4) at Cincinnati (5-3)
    Washington (3-5) at Tampa Bay (7-1)
    L.A. Chargers (5-3) at Oakland (3-5)
    Seattle (2-6) at L.A. Rams (4-5)

    Bye Bye Rust

    I’m going to stick with this section because it’s turning into a great seasonal trend to watch. Teams off the ‘bye’ last week saw the ‘over’ go 3-1 in their games, pushing the high side to 9-5 (64%) on the season. Make a note that I’m double-counting the Titans-Cowboys outcome from last Monday since they played one another off rest.

    Last week, I also touched on the offensive scoring for teams off the bye. The Falcons (38), Titans (28), Chargers (25) and Cowboys (14) combined for an average of 26.3 PPG. Those watching the games know that both Los Angeles and Dallas left points off the board. Regardless, 14 teams off the ‘bye’ are averaging 27.6 PPG in their following game.

    Six teams will be playing with rest this week:

    Saints at Bengals
    Jaguars at Colts (Both teams playing with rest)
    Cardinals at Chiefs
    Cowboys at Eagles
    Giants at 49ers

    Under the Lights

    Another 2-1 ‘under’ mark last week and the Titans-Cowboys result barely went ‘over’ last Monday. Through 29 games played, the ‘under’ sits at 15-14 and that includes Pittsburgh’s 52-21 shootout win over Carolina this past Thursday, which improved the ‘over’ to 7-3 in the midweek matchup this season. Make a note that the ‘under’ is 7-2 on Sunday Night and Monday’s have been a stalemate (5-5).

    Dallas at Philadelphia: The ‘under’ has cashed in three of the last four meetings but you could toss out two of those results since they were a pair of meaningless Week 17 outcomes. The Eagles are rested and they play much better defensively at home (18 PPG), which is helped the ‘under’ go 3-1. This year’s Dallas squad has been great defensively (18.9 PPG) and terrible on offense (19.2 PPG), especially away from home (13.5 PPG). All four of the Cowboys road games gave gone ‘under’ and I’m surprised this total isn’t closer to 40.

    N.Y. Giants at San Francisco: Seems like a high total (44 ) for a pair of teams that are a combined 3-14 on the season. San Francisco got a great performance from rookie QB Nick Mullens last Thursday in their 34-3 win over Oakland. Can he repeat that effort with a couple extra days to prepare? The Giants (18.8 PPG) haven’t shown much offensively but their best efforts (27, 31, 20) of the season came outside of New York and against non-divisional opponents. The pair have met twice in the last three seasons and the ‘over’ cashed in both games.

    Fearless Predictions

    Another 3-1 week ($195) kept us rolling and while the Packers-Patriots ‘over’ had a chance, the pace was too slow and Green Bay just wasn’t sharp enough offensively. Hopefully the second-half of the season keeps the bankroll ($730) in the black. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

    Best Over: Arizona-Kansas City 49
    Best Under: Miami-Green Bay 47
    Best Team Total: Over 16 Arizona

    Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
    Over 39 Jacksonville-Indianapolis
    Under 44 Buffalo-New York
    Under 57 Seattle-L.A. Rams
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    Sunday Blitz - Week 10
    November 10, 2018
    By Kevin Rogers


    GAMES TO WATCH

    Saints (-5 , 54) at Bengals – 1:00 PM EST

    Entering last week’s matchup with the undefeated Rams, New Orleans (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) was in a good position to still grab a first-round bye in the NFC playoffs even with a loss. However, the Saints withstood a Los Angeles rally after building a 35-14 lead and pulled away from the Rams, 45-35. Drew Brees connected with Michael Thomas on a 72-yard touchdown pass as the Saints grabbed not only their seventh consecutive win, but also the all-important tiebreaker over the Rams for playoff seeding.

    The Bengals (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) are back from the bye week as Cincinnati looks to stay one-half game behind Pittsburgh for the top spot in the AFC North. Cincinnati will be without star wide receiver A.J. Green for the next two games with a toe injury, as the Bengals’ offense has been outgained in each of the last three contests by 174 yards or more.

    Cincinnati has fared well in the home underdog role under Marvin Lewis through the years by posting a solid 9-1 ATS mark since 2013, including a victory over Baltimore in Week 2 as a short ‘dog. The Saints have cashed in six consecutive games overall and own a 6-1 ATS ledger as a road favorite dating back to 2016 with the only loss coming in Week 17 at Tampa Bay last season.

    Best Bet: Saints 24, Bengals 21

    Patriots (-6 , 47) at Titans – 1:00 PM EST


    The New England train keeps rolling as the Patriots (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) picked up their sixth consecutive win in last Sunday night’s 31-17 triumph over the Packers. New England outscored Green Bay, 14-0 in the fourth quarter to grab the cover as five-point favorites, while playing without All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski. The Patriots improved to 5-0 at Gillette Stadium this season, while covering for the fourth time in Foxboro.

    The Titans (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) climbed back to the .500 mark after running the Cowboys last Monday night, 28-14. Tennessee picked up not only its fifth underdog cover in six tries this season, but also its fourth outright win when receiving points. The defense continued to look stout by limiting its sixth opponent in the past seven games to 20 points or less, even though the game at Dallas barely finished OVER the total of 40 .

    New England has captured each of the past seven matchups with Tennessee since 2003, including a 35-14 victory in the divisional playoffs last season as 13 -point favorites. The last five meetings have been decided by 17, 59, 21, 17, and 21 as Tennessee’s last cover against New England came in the 2003 playoffs.

    Best Bet: Patriots 23, Titans 17

    Seahawks at Rams (-10, 50 ) – 4:25 PM EST


    For the first time this season, the Rams (8-1 SU, 4-5 ATS) fell short of a victory in a 45-35 setback at New Orleans. Los Angeles is still in control of the NFC West race, but the Rams aren’t a lock for home-field advantage in the NFC after dropping the head-to-head battle with the Saints. Now the Rams return to the Coliseum following a tough week in the area with the bar shooting tragedy and the rampant wildfires. Los Angeles covered its first three games of the season, but the Rams have gone backwards of late from the covering perspective by posting a 1-5 ATS mark in the past six contests.

    The Seahawks (4-4 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) are looking up at the Rams in the NFC West as Seattle’s seesaw campaign continues following a 25-17 home setback to the Chargers last week. Seattle has rebounded nicely since an 0-2 start by winning four of the past six games, while cashing the UNDER in six of the previous seven contests. In very un-Seattle-like fashion, the Seahawks have performed better away from CenturyLink Field (3-2) than they have at home (1-2).

    In the first meeting this season in Seattle back in Week 5, the Rams held off the Seahawks, 33-31. Seattle cashed as 7 -point underdogs and owned a seven-point lead heading to the fourth quarter. However, Todd Gurley’s third touchdown of the day and a Cairo Santos field goal led Los Angeles to a second straight win at CenturyLink Field. Last season, the Seahawks went into the Coliseum and tripped up the Rams, 16-10 as two-point underdogs.

    Best Bet: Rams 26, Seahawks 23

    SUPERCONTEST PICKS

    Kevin Rogers (1-4 last week, 23-20-2 this season)

    Jets -6
    Bengals +5
    Titans +6
    Jaguars +3
    Lions +6

    Chris David (1-4 last week, 26-18-1 this season)

    Cardinals +16
    Packers -9
    Seahawks +9
    Cowboys +6
    Giants +3

    SURVIVOR PICKS

    Kevin Rogers (8-1 this season)
    Jets over Bills

    Chris David (8-1 this season)

    Jets over Bills

    BEST TOTAL PLAY

    UNDER 47 - Dolphins at Packers


    Is Green Bay’s season over? Not quite yet, but the Packers need to start winning some games and dig out of a 3-4-1 hole. The Packers’ defense has been chewed up the last few weeks by allowing 31, 29, 30, and 31 points. However, Green Bay faces Miami this week as the Dolphins scored only a defensive touchdown and two field goals in last week’s home win over the Jets. The offense has failed to top the 23-point mark in four road contests, while finishing UNDER three times.

    TRAP OF THE WEEK


    The Eagles have failed to win consecutive games this season, one year removed from winning the first Super Bowl in franchise history. Philadelphia hosts Dallas on Sunday night at Lincoln Financial Field, as the Cowboys seek their first road win in five tries. The last time Dallas were listed as this high of a road underdog (+7), the Cowboys knocked off the Eagles, 20-10 in Philadelphia as seven-point underdogs.

    BIGGEST LINE MOVE

    The Falcons won their first road game of the season last week with a convincing showing at Washington. Now, Atlanta is back on the highway this week with a visit to Cleveland, as the Browns try to snap a four-game losing streak. The Falcons opened as 3 -point favorites last Sunday when the Westgate Superbook released its initial numbers. Now, Atlanta has been pushed up to six at many books, including the Westgate. The Falcons have not covered in back-to-back games this season, while Cleveland owns a 1-3 ATS mark the past four games since a 4-1 ATS start.

    BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

    If you believe in just plain ATS numbers, there isn’t a solid reason to back the Cardinals as heavy underdogs at Kansas City. Arizona has compiled a 3-8-1 ATS mark as a road underdog since last season, while the Chiefs are 9-4 ATS as a home favorite since the beginning of 2017. However, Kansas City is laying 16 points with a huge game against the Rams next week in Mexico City. The last time the Cardinals received this many points, Arizona covered as 16-point underdogs in the 2012 season finale at San Francisco in a 27-14 defeat.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    SuperContest Picks - Week 10
    November 10, 2018
    By VI News


    The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

    Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

    The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

    This year's contest has 3,123 entries.

    Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

    Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8

    Week 9

    Week 10

    1) Philadelphia -6.5 (1401)
    2) Atlanta -4 (1294)
    3) Seattle +9.5 (1078)
    4) New England -6.5 (935)
    5) L.A. Chargers -9.5 (919)

    SUPERCONTEST WEEK 10 MATCHUPS & ODDS
    Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
    Carolina (+4) 245 Pittsburgh (-4) 211
    Buffalo (+6.5) 141 N.Y. Jets (-6.5) 378
    Atlanta (-4) 1294 Cleveland (+4) 260
    New Orleans (-5.5) 743 Cincinnati (+5.5) 795
    Washington (+3) 337 Tampa Bay (-3) 739
    New England (-6.5) 935 Tennessee (+6.5) 446
    Miami (+9.5) 218 Green Bay (-9.5) 672
    Jacksonville (+3) 764 Indianapolis (-3) 580
    Detroit (+6.5) 569 Chicago (-6.5) 631
    Arizona (+16.5) 299 Kansas City (-16.5) 292
    L.A. Chargers (-9.5) 919 Oakland (+9.5) 175
    Seattle (+9.5) 1078 L.A. Rams (-9.5) 262
    Dallas (+6.5) 224 Philadelphia (-6.5) 1401
    N.Y. Giants (+3) 553 San Francisco (-3) 354

    Consensus Results - 2017 | 2016

    WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
    Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
    1 4-1 4-1 80%
    2 0-5 4-6 40%
    3 3-2 7-8 47%
    4 3-2 10-10 50%
    5 1-4 11-14 44%
    6 1-4 12-18 40%
    7 4-1 16-19 46%
    8 5-0 21-19 53%
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 11
    GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


    ATL at CLE 01:00 PM
    ATL -5.5
    O 50.5

    DET at CHI 01:00 PM
    DET +7.5
    U 44.0

    BUF at NYJ 01:00 PM
    NYJ -7.5
    U 38.0

    WAS at TB 01:00 PM
    TB -3.5
    O 51.0


    NO at CIN 01:00 PM
    CIN +6.0
    O 53.5


    ARI at KC 01:00 PM
    ARI +16.5
    U 49.5

    JAC at IND 01:00 PM
    IND -3.0
    U 47.5

    NE at TEN 01:00 PM
    TEN +6.5
    U 47.0


    LAC at OAK 04:05 PM
    OAK +10.0
    U 49.5

    SEA at LAR 04:25 PM
    SEA +8.5
    U 51.0


    MIA at GB 04:25 PM
    GB -10.5
    U 48.0

    DAL at PHI 08:20 PM
    PHI -7.5
    U 44.0
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    According to reports, Seahawks RB Chris Carson (hip) is expected to sit today @ Rams.
    Current Pointspread: Rams -8.5
    Current Total: 51



    Essentials - Week 10
    Tony Mejia


    Sunday
    Buffalo at N.Y. Jets (-7/37.5) , 1 p.m. ET, CBS:
    For the first time this season, rookie Sam Darnold will sit and watch veteran Josh McCown, which was originally the plan for 2018. The 21-year-old Darnold hasn’t fared well of late but hasn’t been benched, battling a strained foot that has kept him out of practices this week. There was talk that he’d be available in a backup role, but Davis Webb has instead been called up from the practice squad. Unfortunately for McCown, who comes off a career year and threw for over 2,900 yards and had an 18-9 TD-to-INT ratio last season, he won’t have his favorite target from last season, Robby Anderson, available due to an ankle injury. This year’s most targeted Jets receiver, Quincy Enunwa, will be in the mix after his own ankle issue has healed sufficiently.

    Todd Bowles could very well be coaching the final game of his Jets tenure given the bye week ahead, so the expectation here is that he’ll go down swinging with his defense against Bills new starting QB Matt Barkley, who hasn’t started since Jan. 1, 2017 and was just signed on Halloween. Buffalo is killing time until rookie Josh Allen is able to return from an elbow injury and has seemingly given up on Nathan Peterman, the culprit most responsible for the Bills becoming the first team in league history to have thrown as many pick-sixes as TD passes through a half-season. Expect LeSean McCoy to be heavily featured since ex-Jet Chris Ivory, who has been one of the few bright spots on the Buffalo offense, is unlikely to participate after injuring his shoulder last week. Tight end Chares Clay is nursing a shoulder issue. Considering that both defenses have playmakers and have proven capable, it’s no surprise that the lowest total of the NFL season has been placed on his one. The ‘under’ has prevailed in five of seven meetings between these AFC East rivals. The Jets have won three of the past four encounters.

    Atlanta (-6/50.5) at Cleveland, 1 p.m. ET, FOX:
    Interim head coach Gregg Williams might have been able to lock up the Browns gig permanently if he’d found a way to shut down the Chiefs last week. Nobody else has succeeded either so it’s no deal-breaker, but Kansas City scored 37 and coasted to a win in Cleveland, becoming the fifth team in six weeks to score 26 or more points against Williams’ defense. The Falcons are up as the last test before a much-needed bye week and have scored 31 or more points in five of seven, so you have to like their odds of continuing to flourish offensively. QB Matt Ryan’s ability to beat the blitz will determine the winner here, so it will help the Falcons’ cause that Calvin Ridley (concussion) and Mohamed Sanu (hip) have been cleared to take the field alongside Julio Jones, who comes off his first TD reception last week and has three 100-yards games in his last four appearances.

    Unlike New York’s Darnold and Buffalo’s Allen, Cleveland rookie Baker Mayfield has stayed healthy enough to make his Week 10 start. That wasn’t without drama though. He made a visit to the dreaded tent last week after getting dinged up but will start here and will have his full complement of weapons with WR Antonio Callaway and TE David Njoku both cleared to play. Up front, center J.C. Tretter remains questionable but tackle Desmond Harrison practiced in full and will be available. The Browns defense is also going to have safeties Denzel Ward and Damarious Randall available to help contend with Atlanta’s excellent receiving corps. The Falcons lost their first two road games this season but won at Washington last week 38-14 and are looking for their first four-game win streak since their 2016 Super Bowl season. They’ll be throwing newly-signed pass-rusher Bruce Irvin into the mix for the first time.

    New Orleans (-6/54) at Cincinnati, 1 p.m. ET, FOX:
    The Bengals come off a well-timed bye week since they nearly blew an 18-point lead to Tampa Bay before Randy Bullock converted on a 44-yarder at the gun to secure a 37-34, snapping a two-game winning streak. Cincinnati is 5-3 through the first eight games but by no means enters the season’s second half bright-eyed and bushy-tailed. Top wide receiver A.J. Green is dealing with turf toe and won’t play, which moves every other receiver up to a role that they may not be ready for, but at least they’ve had a week to work with Andy Dalton in preparation for this one. Cincy’s defense remains banged up as leader and top LB Vontaze Burfict, LB Nick Vigil, pass rusher Carl Lawson and corner Darqueze Dennard are all still too injured to play despite the week off.

    The Saints arrive as the hottest team in the NFL, coming in with seven straight victories, the last three of which have been particularly impressive. Following a Week 6 bye, New Orleans won at Baltimore and Minnesota before knocking off the previously unbeaten Rams last Sunday. If there’s a letdown coming, this is likely to be it, since this will be only the third game they’ve played in an open structure this season. There have been elements that Drew Brees and the offense had to deal with in wins over the Giants and Ravens, but the 40-degree temperatures will be a new variable. Wind shouldn’t be a factor. The Saints are 5-5 straight up in their last 10 regular-season games played in outdoor stadiums but have won six of eight. They’ll be working somewhat short-handed at receiver since newly acquired Dez Bryant tore his achilles in his first practice with the team while Cam Meredith and Ted Ginn are on IR.

    Washington at Tampa Bay (-3.5/51), 1 p.m. ET, FOX:
    The Bucs have dropped five of six, replaced franchise cornerstone Jameis Winston with Ryan Fitzpatrick and have given up 30 or more points in each of their losses. Linebacker Kwon Alexander has also been lost during this stretch and rookie corner M.J. Stewart won’t be available to aid the NFL’s worst defense. Mercifully for the Bucs, they won’t have to face a ‘Skins offense anywhere near full strength since tackle Trent Williams and guards Brandon Scherff and Shawn Lauvao have all been lost. WR Paul Richardson is done for the season, Jamison Crowder remains out and Chris Thompson hasn’t overcome a rib injury sufficiently enough to return. Alex Smith will thus be relying on undrafted guys like Kapri Bibbs and Maurice Harris in key roles as Washington looks to maintain its NFC East edge.

    Washington scored just 14 points against Atlanta last week and lost all those guys in-game, so it’s hard to tell what we’re going to get here. Fitzpatrick will go after Washington’s star-studded secondary with Mike Evans cleared and productive DeSean Jackson, Adam Humphries, Chris Godwin and tight ends O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate all healthy, so the pace in this one should be reliant upon whether we see some early scoring. Tampa led after the first 15 minutes in each of its first three games but has trailed in four of five, getting outscored 44-9 in those games. Washington has led after the first quarter in four of its five wins and has yet to win a game it trailed after the first 15.

    New England (-6.5/47) at Tennessee, 1 p.m. ET, CBS:
    Running back Sony Michel will return for the Patriots, so don’t expect to see Cordarrelle Patterson play as large a role as he did in Sunday night’s victory over the Packers. Rob Gronkowski won’t be out there again, sidelined by a back issue that the Patriots are right to be extra cautious with. After all, there’s still over a month remaining until they truly need him and they’ve been getting along just fine, stretching their win streak to six games and scoring over 30 for the fifth time during this stretch. Tom Brady hasn’t missed many throws and will be a handful for the Titans defense to deal with on a short week. Tackle Shaq Mason won’t be available for New England, so expect Tennessee to be aggressive in trying to get after Brady as a defensive brain trust that should have at least some decent theories on how to contain the Patriots looks to win their third game as a home underdog this season.

    The Titans surprised the Cowboys as Marcus Mariota produced some clutch plays on third down and delivered his most productive outing of the season. The former No. 2 overall pick threw two touchdowns without being intercepted for the first time since Dec. 2017 and only the third time in the last two years. He also ran for a score for only the second time this season, so if he’s healthy, his ability to thrive as a dual threat could be a game-changer. Tackle Jack Conklin remains out for the Titans, who may at least get back receivers Tajae Sharpe and Taywan Taylor from foot injuries. Defensive tackle Bennie Logan and pass rusher Derrick Morgan are both questionable and would really be missed if they can’t participate. Tennessee is 12-3 SU (11-3-1 ATS) at home over its last 15 in Nashville, but the Pats have won 16 of 19 on the road and have won five straight in the series, last losing in Tennesee in 2002, Brady’s second year as New England’s starter.

    Jacksonville (-3/47) at Indianapolis, 1 p.m. ET, CBS:
    The Jaguars will get back RB Leonard Fournette, which means the pressure on Blake Bortles to at least be serviceable ramps up further. Make no mistake, if the Jags are struggling with the Colts due to Bortles being inaccurate or sloppy with the ball, he’ll be pulled in favor of Landry Jones, who was signed prior to last week’s bye after Bortles’ shoulder was injured in London. Bortles has thrown 12 TDs and just three picks over his career vs. the Colts, which includes a 10-0 TD-to-INT ratio over the last six. The Jaguars went into the bye extremely banged up in the secondary and will again be without starter A.J. Bouye and backup Quenton Meeks but do return D.J. Hayden to the fold and will see Jalen Ramsey be as healthy as he’s been since Tyreek Hill literally ran him ragged in Week 5 to start this four-game losing streak the team is embarked upon.

    Jacksonville remains only 2.5 games behind Houston in the AFC South and come in tied with the Colts. Indy has safeties Clayton Geathers and Malik Hooker available and have seen Andrew Luck throw seven touchdown passes without being picked off since getting T.Y. Hilton back in the lineup. Indianapolis has won two straight for the first time since 2015 and haven’t won three in a row since earlier that year.

    Detroit at Chicago (-7/44.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX:
    The Lions and Bears play twice in the next three weeks, so Detroit could keep Matt Patricia’s first season from devolving into a rebuilding project if it is able to get its act together. The offense has disappeared in setbacks against the Seahawks and Vikings, putting up touchdowns in just three of their last nine contests. In their first game playing without Golden Tate, neither Marvin Jones nor Kenny Golladay was able to step up and help Matthew Stafford put together chunk plays. The veteran QB has struggled himself, and it should be disconcerting that the most consistent weapon over the past few weeks, versatile rookie RB Kerryon Johnson, will be playing through an ankle injury.

    Chicago was lights out last week against the slumping Bills and gets back Khalil Mack, who has been sidelined the past few weeks, so a group that has shut down the Jets and Bills should be formidable as they look to improve to 4-1 at home. Wide receivers Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel are both now ‘probable’ and could prove troublesome with top Lions corner Darius Slay being ruled out. Top pass-rusher Ziggy Ansah (shoulder) will be available as he tries to get going in what’s been an injury-filled season, but Matt Nagy ideally wants QB Mitch Trubisky to get rid of the ball quickly, which should neutralize his impact. Wind gusts should be minimal and are expected to only reach about to 10-to-15 miles per hour, so both strong-armed quarterbacks shouldn’t have problems managing mild November weather for Chicago.

    Arizona at Kansas City (-16/49.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS:
    Sunday’s largest spread resides here, where rookie QB Josh Rosen looks to try and keep pace with the NFL’s most productive scoring offense. He’s beaten the 49es twice and hasn’t experienced much success otherwise, leading Arizona to over 20 points only once this season, but Rosen did throw multiple touchdown passes for the first time in his pro career and finally hooked up with Larry Fitzgerald, helping him end his end zone drought. First-time offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich will have no choice but to try and open things up, so it will be interesting to see what this offense can come up with.

    Its best bet might be for a secondary that features Patrick Peterson and emerging young safety Budda Baker to create turnovers, especially since Mahomes has been picked off seven times over the last five games and hasn’t had a turnover-free game since Oct. 1. Still, he’s already 29 touchdown passes for the season and has failed to top the 30-point mark only once. On that note, Kansas City’s lowest-scoring game is just one point less than Arizona’s highest output. Center Mitch Morse remains out as the Chiefs continue to work with a patchwork offensive line, a task made easier by the fact most of the team’s key playmakers are healthy. WR Sammy Watkins (ankle) is doubtful to play, but the defense will be welcoming back standout pass-rusher Justin Houston to try and get after Rosen on predictable passing downs.

    Miami at Green Bay (-10/48), 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS:
    - The Packers have had trouble getting started in the past and always seem to get their act together so a November must-win home game is nothing new. Coming off a tough loss to New England where a costly Aaron Jones’ fumble kept them from likely taking a fourth-quarter lead, Green Bay has to be frustrated since it also saw an opportunity to potentially beat the Rams slip through the fingers of a now dismissed Ty Montgomery. Green Bay is close to what we typically expect it to be under Aaron Rodgers’ watch, but the team went 3-8 down the stretch last season and has done far more losing than we’re used to seeing from them of late. With road games in Seattle and Minnesota closing out November, it’s absolutely crucial that the Packers stop the bleeding here. Unfortunately, they’ll be without corner Kevin King and have tackle Bryan Bulaga, WR Randall Cobb and LB Blake Martinez questionable.

    That still leaves them better off than the Dolphins, which snapped a run of four losses in five games by defeating the Jets last week but take the field in Green Bay with Brock Osweiler still filling in at quarterback for an injured Ryan Tannehill. Three starting offensive linemen, tackle Ja’Wuan James, center Ted Larsen and guard Laremy Tunsil are all questionable, so Osweiler may be under siege. Defensively, LB Kiko Alonso should play and safety Reshad Jones is also going to be utilized despite telling defensive coordinator Matt Burke that he wasn’t going back in the game last week. Just another day in paradise. Speaking of which, the Dolphins are leaving sunny South Florida, where they’ve played three of the last four, for frosty Green Bay, where game-time temperatures will be at 32 degrees and snow flurries could be part of the festivities.

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