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Thread: Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

  1. #256
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    Underdog Plays - Week 6
    October 10, 2018
    By Bookmaker


    NFL Football Odds - Top NFL Underdog Plays Of Week 6

    By Kyle Markus


    Every week there are several upsets in the NFL, as underdogs don’t just cover the spread but also win the games outright. There is no doubt plenty of underdogs will either grab the win on the moneyline or at least cover, but the trick is figuring out which are the best plays in Week 6.

    Luckily, we are here to help sort out the top options among the underdog picks in NFL odds.

    Odds Analysis

    The Cleveland Browns are a long way from last year’s winless record, as an improved defense and a promising rookie quarterback in Baker Mayfield has changed the tone. The Browns are at home this week but have a tough matchup against a strong Los Angeles Chargers team. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers has been excellent this season but look for the Cleveland pass rush to give him issues. The Browns are only one-point underdogs so it’s not a huge upset but they are the pick to come away with the win.

    The Chicago Bears have been impressive this season but they still have an inconsistent second-year quarterback in Mitchell Trubisky. They have to play on the road this week against the Miami Dolphins. Miami can be had at +105 odds to cover a three-point spread, which means that number could be going up. Once it passes that number, jump in the Dolphins to cover as they should be able to keep this one within a field goal if not win outright. The Bears have a lot of solid players but an underwhelming day from Trubisky can torpedo their chances in a hurry.

    The Carolina Panthers are one-point underdogs on the road against the Washington Redskins. The Saints showed last time out the flaws with Washington, and Carolina should continue to excel against the Redskins. This one won’t be a blowout but the Panthers should be favored. Quarterback Cam Newton and running back Christian McCaffrey are going to be a devastating 1-2 punch that the Washington defense is not going to be able to handle. The Panthers are looking like a playoff team and this spread is too low. Take them with confidence to win on the moneyline.

    The Denver Broncos are seven-point underdogs in a faceoff against the unbeaten Los Angeles Rams. It is undoubtedly a tough matchup but Denver gets this game at home and a touchdown spread gives them quite a bit of breathing room. The Rams will likely win this matchup but the Broncos’ defense should be able to keep the game close enough to give Denver the cover.

    Free NFL ATS Picks

    The best underdog pick of the week is the Kansas City Chiefs. They are going on the road to face off against the New England Patriots, and few teams win there, but the Chiefs are 5-0 and dominating on offense. This one should be an absolute shootout and it’s fair to wonder if Patrick Mahomes can handle the exposure of a game like this, but he has not fallen off thus far.

    The Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites against the Patriots and they are the pick to cover. An even better play is Kansas City on the moneyline as it is the +160 underdog to pull the upset. It seems a bit scary to pick against the Patriots, especially now that Julian Edelman is back and Josh Gordon is getting more familiar with the playbook to give quarterback Tom Brady more receiving options. But the Chiefs have the superior weapons on offense and should be able to match any run New England goes on. This should be an incredible game and Kansas City is the pick in NFL gambling.

    NFL ATS Pick: Kansas City Chiefs to cover the spread against the New England Patriots
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    Teams to Watch - Week 6
    October 10, 2018
    By YouWager.eu


    Futures Forecast Predictions, top picks, teams to avoid for Week 6

    It’s another big week of action in the NFL starting on Thursday night with the Philadelphia Eagles trying to get back on track against the New York Giants. The Sunday night game also looks to be a beauty, with the red-hot Kansas City Chiefs on the road to face the New England Patriots. Wedged in between those two games is a great looking schedule featuring a number of excellent match-ups.

    We are, as always, going to look at a couple of teams you should consider playing this weekend, as well as a couple that you might want to avoid, so let’s get right to it with all odds, props and futures provided by YouWager.eu.

    Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants


    The defending Super Bowl champions are finding life to be a little tough this season, starting out at just 2-3 through the opening 5 weeks. They need a win in the worst way possible, which is why a trip to the Big Apple to face the New York Giants might be just what the doctor ordered. The Eagles have dominated the Giants over the last few seasons, going 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 visits to New York. The Giants are just 1-4 on the season and apart from rookie RB Saquon Barkley, they are not getting much going on offense. I like the three-point spread for the road team here, which is why I will play the Philadelphia Eagles.

    Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins

    The Miami Dolphins were one of the surprise teams in the early part of the season, winning their opening three games before getting routed by the New England Patriots. They followed that up with another loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, and they now look like a team on the ropes. The Dolphins scored just 24 total points in those two losses and are now going against a Bears defensive unit that is one of the best in the league. The signing of Khalil Mack now looks like a stroke of genius, as he and the rest of the Bears D has been dominant. The Bears hit the road as a three-point favorite, which I think they easily cover, so avoid the Miami Dolphins.

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    Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys

    This is a game where the UNDER would appear to be the best play, but since we are looking at teams to play or avoid, let’s take a closer look at this one. The Dallas Cowboys have been an absolute nightmare on the offensive side of the football, averaging a touch over 16 PPG. It makes you wonder where the offense is going to come from against a very good Jaguars D. That said, the Jaguars have not really offered up much offense of their own, although they have twice crossed the 30-point mark this season. The road team are in as a three-point favorite here, which seems like a good bet, so I will play the Jacksonville Jaguars.

    Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots

    In my mind, this is the game of the week. You have an unbeaten Chiefs team with the hottest young QB in the league going on the road to face the Patriots and the best QB that has ever played the game. It is the Patriots who are in as a 3 point favorite for this one, and it’s that half point that may be the key here. I think we could potentially see a bit of a shootout here, with the last team to get the ball potentially being the one that wins. I think this is an FG game in the making, which is why I am going to avoid the New England Patriots ATS.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  3. #258
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    Thursday’s six-pack

    NFL trends for Week 6:

    — Cleveland covered five of its last six games.

    — Kansas City covered its last nine games.

    — Vikings are 16-4 in last 20 games as home favorites.

    — Patriots covered 12 of their last 15 games.

    — Seahawks covered six of last seven pre-bye games.

    — Dallas is 10-5-1 vs spread in last 16 games vs AFC teams.

    Quote of the Day
    “I was raised to believe that one thing that counts most in life is to treat everybody the way you want them to treat you.”
    Mookie Betts

    Thursday’s quiz
    When was the last time the Milwaukee Brewers were in the World Series?

    Wednesday’s quiz
    Cam Newton played college football for both Florida and Auburn.

    Tuesday’s quiz
    Mike Riley was the San Diego Chargers coach when Drew Brees was an NFL rookie, in 2001.

    ***********************

    Thursday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but…….

    13) Weird season for the Cleveland Indians, who won a weak AL Central by 13 games; Twins finished second, but at 78-84, so Indians coasted into the playoffs with a lame bullpen that blew many games the season. When Cleveland got swept by the Astros, I was wondering if there are Indian fans who even think their team had that good a season?

    12) Watching Jose Altuve hit a double in the gap in left-center Monday, no way is he 100%; there is something wrong with his knee. Normally he would’ve rounded second and threatened to try for a triple- he labored just to get to second base.

    11) Why do playoff games have six umpires, with extra umps in outfield on each foul line? With instant replay, they just aren’t needed. They probably weren’t needed before replay.

    10) Los Angeles Rams scored 173 points in their first five games; nine years ago, the Rams went 1-15 and scored 175 points all season.

    9) There are 11 unbeaten teams left in college football; Cincinnati is ranked #25, lowest of those 11 unbeatens.

    8) There are 27 players who won five NBA championship rings; 13 of those 27 guys also won a sixth championship ring.

    7) Los Angeles Dodgers’ GM Farhan Zaidi is an MIT graduate with a doctorate in economics; when he was a kid, his father moved their family from Canada to the Philippines. Zaidi found a copy of Bill James’ Baseball Abstract in a bookstore on a military base, and from reading that book he studied his way into becoming a major league GM. Pretty cool.

    6) When the Giants/Dodgers moved to California in 1958, the Dodgers won three World Series in their first eight years in LA, but they also finished under .500 four times in their first 11 seasons there. Dodgers haven’t won a World Series since 1988.

    Meanwhile, the Giants had winning seasons their first 14 years in the Bay Area, but never won a World Series in SF until 2010, when they won three in five years.

    5) 76ers star Joel Embiid signed a multi-year endorsement contract with Under Armour, making him highest-paid big man on a shoe deal. Embiid had been with Adidas.

    Lot of money in sneakers.

    4) Kansas Jayhawks lost their last three games, so they fired offensive coordinator Doug Meacham this week; HC David Beaty will take over his duties. Kansas has a bye this week; they play Texas Tech next.

    3) Tweet of the Day, from Nick Friedell, who covers the NBA for ESPN.com:

    “Rajon Rondo remains one of the most unique personalities in the NBA. He just helped workers at T-Mobile Arena roll some beer kegs down the hallway before walking back into the Lakers locker room.”

    2) Final Four baseball teams: Brewers-Dodgers-Astros-Red Sox

    Only one guy ever played for all four teams; utility man Mark Loretta.

    1) RIP to coach Tex Winter, one of the greatest basketball minds ever, who passed away this week at age 96. Winter is probably best known as one of Phil Jackson’s lieutenants in the NBA, but he also won 453 games as a college head coach. RIP, sir.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    Week 6

    Thursday. October 11

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PHILADELPHIA (2 - 3) at NY GIANTS (1 - 4) - 10/11/2018, 8:20 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NY GIANTS is 3-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
    PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Week 6

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Thursday. October 11

    Philadelphia Eagles
    Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Philadelphia is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
    Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Philadelphia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
    Philadelphia is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games when playing NY Giants
    Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing NY Giants
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
    Philadelphia is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
    Philadelphia is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
    New York Giants
    NY Giants is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Giants's last 12 games
    NY Giants is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home
    NY Giants is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games at home
    NY Giants is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games when playing Philadelphia
    NY Giants is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Philadelphia
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
    NY Giants is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
    NY Giants is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia


    ****************************

    NFL
    Dunkel

    Week 6

    Thursday, October 11

    Philadelphia @ NY Giants


    Game 103-104
    October 11, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Philadelphia
    133.894
    NY Giants
    126.672
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 7
    51
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 3
    43 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Philadelphia
    (-3); Over



    *******************************


    Week 6

    Thursday

    Eagles (2-3) @ Giants (1-4)
    — Both teams are struggling but Redskins lead NFC East at 2-2, so division is still up for grabs. Eagles lost last two games by total of five points; all six of their games were decided by 6 or fewer points. Iggles are 0-2 on road, giving up 27-26 points; under Pederson, Philly is 2-6 as road favorites. Last two games, Giants ran ball 31 times, threw 78 passes- their OL doesn’t open up holes for rookie RB Barkley. Big Blue allowed 33 points in each of last two games, losing LW on 63-yard FG at gun. Philly won seven of last eight series games; last five were all decided by 5 or fewer points; Iggles won four of last five visits here- last three were all decided by five points. Since 2013, Giants are 8-10 as home underdogs, 0-2 this year.


    ****************************



    AJAYI TEARS ACL

    Philadelphia running back Jay Ajayi was diagnosed with a torn ACL late Monday afternoon and is out for the season. This is brutal news for the Eagles’ backfield as they’re already without Corey Clement (quad) and Darren Sproles (hamstring), though neither has been officially ruled out for Thursday’s game at the New York Giants.

    The injuries at running back likely mean that the Eagles will need to rely a bit more on Carson Wentz, both with his arm and his legs. Although he has thrown for over 300 yards in back-to-back games, it’s hard to back him through the air because of how terrible the Eagles’ offensive line has been. Wentz has been sacked 12 times in his three games played already this season and seemed to be under pressure nearly every time he dropped back against Minnesota on Sunday. Even though the Giants don’t have a great pass rush, we still expect Wentz to see pressure and to be forced out of the pocket quite a bit. We’re going to back the Over on his rushing total for Thursday night.


    **************************


    Tech Trends - Week 6
    Bruce Marshall

    Thursday, Oct. 11

    PHILADELPHIA at NY GIANTS (FOX/NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)

    NY actually covered both meetings LY, and Eagles no covers last four since Atlanta opener. Giants “under” 9-3 last 11 since late 2017.
    Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.


    *****************************


    CLEMENT PRACTICING

    Eagles running back Corey Clement (quad) practiced on Tuesday and is expected to return on Thursday night after missing the last two games. His return is a huge boost to a backfield that just lost Jay Ajayi for the season and is still without Darren Sproles and Clement will likely share touches with Wendall Smallwood against the Giants.

    It’s tough to predict whether Clement or Smallwood will get more work on Thursday night. Looking back to Week 3 — where Clement and Smallwood handled the backfield while Ajayi was out — we see that Clement out-snapped (45 to 29) and out-touched (19 to 13) Smallwood, but Smallwood was more productive (91 total yards to 75). Clement had four red-zone carries, while Smallwood had three red-zone carries, a red-zone target, and scored a touchdown.

    For this week, we’re treating the Eagles’ backfield as a 50-50 split and, in a situation like this, we suggest backing the bet with greater value. When the full prop slate opens later in the week, we’ll be looking to take the Over for whoever has the lowest rushing yards total between Clement and Smallwood.


    ************************


    TNF - Eagles at Giants
    Tony Mejia

    Philadelphia (-3, 44) at N.Y. Giants, 8:20 pm ET, FOX/NFLN

    No team suffered a more painful loss than the Giants in Week 5, having battled back from a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit to grab a late lead at Carolina before Graham Gano stepped in with an improbable game-winning 63-yard field goal.

    The aftermath of the disappointing loss also included WR Odell Beckham Jr. addressing a controversial interview he did with ESPN in which he essentially threw all of his teammates under the bus as hip-hop artist and fellow New Orleans native Lil’ Wayne nodded sympathetically. He questioned the passion and heart of teammates and didn’t take up for quarterback Eli Manning, responding “I don’t know” when asked if the 37-year-old future Hall of Famer was to blame for the team’s offensive struggles.

    He could’ve accurately responded that the entire offensive line was to blame and been similarly criticized but the fact is even doing an interview of that nature barely a month into the regular season is a bad look. Unapologetic, Beckham took credit for inspiring teammates to what was the team’s best performance in weeks.

    His tone deaf stance has served one purpose for New York however, deflecting attention from the Giants essentially facing what feels like a must-win at home as the defending Super Bowl champs come in for the first of two regular-season meetings. Instead of answering questions about pressure and a short week, the Giants have had a noisy distraction to suppress their real issues. They’ve also been handed a ready-made scapegoat should this Thursday night contest not go their way.

    New York has been a major disappointment in spite of a coaching change that brought the highly respected Pat Shurmur into run the show. Although No. 2 overall pick Saquon Barkley has shown flashes of brilliance, he’s got just 100-yard rushing game under his belt. The league’s longest run of games between scoring 30 points finally ended, but it took a trick play and some fourth-quarter magic to get the job done.

    The Eagles visit on the heels of a disappointing home loss to Minnesota in which they fell behind 20-3 and saw their comeback fall short. Running back Jay Ajayi was injured in the loss, but the revelation he tore his ACL was a nasty surprise to pile on to a disappointing start on the heels of the team’s first Super Bowl victory.

    Nick Foles was at the controls for Philly’s Thursday night victory over Atlanta to open the season, but that game put a suspect offense on display from Day 1. Carson Wentz’s Week 3 return following a disappointing loss at Tampa Bay produced a victory over Indianapolis when a Hail Mary went unanswered. Still, the Eagles have remained flat despite regaining his services. WR Alshon Jeffery just rejoined the fold after his own injury woes and the newly signed Jordan Matthews is building chemistry with Wentz, so there’s no question the Eagles can be optimistic as they attempt to get back to .500.

    Philadelphia has scored 23 or fewer points in every game this season and has been involved exclusively in one-possession games, so finding the Giants on the schedule might be a welcome sight. The Eagles have dominated New York over the past few seasons, winning seven of the last eight meetings. If you ago all the way back to 2008, Philly has prevailed in 15 of 19, although the last five have all been one-possession games as well.

    Barkley, a native of the Bronx, has scored in each of his first two home dates and will be looking for his first win at Met Life Stadium in addition to his first win against a divisional foe after losing in Dallas a few weeks back. Beckham, whose miscue on a punt return proved costly and balanced out his TD pass and work at receiver against Carolina, has caught 50 passes for over 700 yards and six touchdowns against the Giants. He’s had success, but his team hasn’t.

    That sounds familiar. New York will look to reverse that trend as it seeks its first home win since the 2017 regular-season finale against Washington last New Year’s Eve. The Giants lost their first four home games last season and is now 2-8 over their last 10 at Met Life Stadium, covering just three times.

    Philadelphia will be looking to avoid what would be its third straight loss, something it hasn’t experienced since dropping five in a row from Nov 20-Dec. 18 in 2016.

    Philadelphia Eagles
    Season win total: 10.5 (Over +130, Under -150)
    Odds to win NFC East: 10/11 to 10/11
    Odds to win NFC: 10/1 to 13/1
    Odds to win Super Bowl: 20/1 to 25/1

    New York Giants
    Season win total: 7 (Over -140, Under +120)
    Odds to win NFC East: 15/1 to 12/1
    Odds to win NFC: 50/1 to 50/1
    Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1 to 100/1

    LINE MOVEMENT

    Given how poorly the entire division fared last week and how wide open things are through the first five games, it's most interesting that the Eagles were such a heavy favorite to win the NFC East again. The Eagles opened the season as a 5-to-7 favorite to repeat as divisional champs after last year's 13-3 finish saw them clear their closest pursuers by a full four games. New York finished last in '17 but opened as an appealing 8-to-1 to win the NFC East last April and were down to 5-to-1 to open Week 1. The Eagles remain (10/11) roughly even money to finish atop the division despite trailing Washington by a half-game.

    Only New Orleans (9/2), Minnesota (7/1) and Chicago (12/1) have better odds than these teams to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl than Philly. Only Arizona and San Francisco (1,000/1) have worse odds than the Giants.

    As far as this matchup is concerned, the Eagles were installed as a 2.5-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced last week but have been laying a field goal all week across the board with very little movement. The total opened at 45 but dipped steadily and is most widely available at 44 with a few 43.5s out there.

    Philadelphia is at -150 on the money line at most spots with the wager of a buck on New York to win straight up netting a return of +125 to +135 depending on the shop. The Eagles' team total is set at 23.5 while the Giants are available at 20.5 at most shops.

    INJURY CONCERNS

    Lane Johnson, Philly's standout right tackle, has practiced and will play, alleviating this game's biggest question mark.

    Ajayi’s injury means that the Eagles lose their primary back, taking away the battering ram concept that served them so well last season since they already had LeGarrette Blount when they added him from Miami. Blount is in Detroit now and Darren Sproles is still dealing with a hamstring issue, so look for the trend of using the short passing game as an extension of the run to continue here with Corey Clement and Wendell Smallwood doing the bulk of the work.

    Philadelphia also has issues on defense, having ruled out DT Haloti Ngata (calf) and safety Corey Graham (hamstring), whose absence could result in a big day for the passing game if Manning is accurate and gets time to throw. Top Giants pass-rusher Olivier Vernon will make his 2018 debut for New York, so its defense has a chance to bounce back after surrendering 33 points each of the last two weeks and recording just six sacks all season while doubling as one of the NFL’s worst teams in stopping the run.

    Giants backup tight end Rhett Ellison is questionable with a foot injury, which is a big deal since starter Evan Engram (knee) has been ruled out. WR Russell Shepard (neck) won’t play either.

    RECENT MEETINGS (Philadelphia 9-3 SU, 6-5-1 ATS last 12; OVER 8-4)

    12/17/17 Philadelphia 34-29 at N.Y. Giants (NYG +7.5, 40.5)
    9/24/17 Philadelphia 27-24 vs. N.Y. Giants (NYG +5, 43)
    12/22/16 Philadelphia 24-19 vs. N.Y. Giants (PHI -1.5, 42.5)
    11/6/16 N.Y. Giants 28-23 vs. Philadelphia (NYG -3, 42.5)
    1/3/16 Philadelphia 35-30 at N.Y. Giants (PHI -5, 51)
    10/19/15 Philadelphia 27-7 vs. N.Y. Giants (PHI -5, 49.5)
    12/28/14 Philadelphia 34-26 at N.Y. Giants (PK'em, 52)
    10/12/14 Philadelphia 27-0 vs. N.Y. Giants (PHI -1.5, 51)
    10/27/13 N.Y. Giants 15-7 at Philadelphia (NYG +5.5, 49)
    10/6/13 Philadelphia 36-21 at N.Y. Giants (PHI +1.5, 53.5)
    12/30/12 N.Y. Giants 42-7 vs. Philadelphia (NYG -6.5, 44.5)
    9/30/12 Philadelphia 19-17 vs. N.Y. Giants (PHI -1.5, 46.5)

    PROPS

    Of the props available below at Westgate, I'd ride the first score being a field goa for the value and like the under on Barkley rush yardage since the Giants move him around and have only given him over 15 carries twice thus far and he hasn't topped the 50 yards rushing in either of the last two weeks.

    First score: (Touchdown -150, FG/Safety +130)
    Carson Wentz passing yards (292.5): (Over -110, Under -110)
    Carson Wentz TD passes (2): Over -125, 2nd + OT +100)
    Zach Ertz receiving yards (67.5): (Over -110, Under -110)
    Eli Manning completions (24.5): (Over -110, Under -110)
    Eli Manning TD passes (1.5): (Over +110, Under -130)
    Saquon Barkley rush yards (60.5): (Over -110, Under -110)
    QB sacks (4.5): (Over -130, Under +110)

    NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

    Westgate Vegas opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 7 currently has the Eagles liisted as a 3-point home favorite against the Panthers in another big NFC game. The Giants will be back in the national spotlight, visiting the Falcons for a Monday night showdown that realistically looms as an elimination game since both teams have gotten off to such slow starts. Atlanta has been made a 3.5-point favorite.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    THURSDAY, OCTOBER 11
    GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


    PHI at NYG 08:20 PM

    NYG +1.0

    O 44.0
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    Wentz throws 3 TD passes, Eagles look Super vs. Giants
    October 11, 2018


    EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) All the Philadelphia Eagles needed to get over their Super Bowl hangover was a little more urgency, some big plays - and a timely game against the New York Giants.

    Carson Wentz threw a season-high three touchdown passes and the Eagles got an early lift from their defense and special teams in beating the struggling Giants 34-13 on Thursday night, avoiding their first three-game losing streak since the 2016 season.

    Wentz sandwiched touchdowns passes of 13 and 1 yard to Alshon Jeffery around a 10-yarder to tight end Zach Ertz to help the Eagles (3-3) build a 31-6 lead. They beat the Giants (1-5) for the fourth straight time and seventh in eight games.

    Corey Clement scored on a 1-yard run and Jake Elliott added field goals of 33 and 30 yards for the defending Super Bowl champions.

    Rookie halfback Saquon Barkley scored on a 50-yard run and rushed for 130 yards in one of the few bright spots for the Giants' offense, which was booed repeatedly in losing at home for the third time. Aldrick Rosas had field goals of 33 and 21 yards.

    This was seen as a must-win game for both teams in the weak and wide-open NFC East, and the Eagles went out and grabbed it.

    They came into the game having scored seven points in the first quarter and they doubled that against New York.

    Eli Manning was under pressure all game and finished 24 of 43 for 281 yards.

    On the opening series, Kamu Gugier-Hill intercepted Manning's pass that was tipped by fellow linebacker Jordan Hicks and he returned it to Giants 16. Three plays later, Wentz (26 of 36 for 278 yards and no interceptions) was forced out of the pocket and found Jeffery after getting all day to throw.

    A 46-yard run by Barkley set up Rosas' 33-yarder to cut the gap to 7-3, but the Eagles took control later in the quarter after DeAndre Carter returned a punt 23 yards to the New York 44. Passes of 17 to Jeffery and 14 to Clement set up Clement's touchdown run.

    A spectacular tackle-breaking run by Barkley on a 55-yard screen pass helped cut the lead to 14-6 in the second quarter but Wentz hit a wide-open Nelson Agholer on a third and 3 and connected with Ertz for a 21-6 lead on the next play.

    Elliott made it 24-6 just before halftime and Philadelphia put the game out of reach with a 75-yard drive that ended with a short Jeffery TD catch.

    The only thing meaningful after that was Barkley's touchdown run.

    INJURIES: Eagles LT Jason Peters left with a biceps injury. Backup cornerback Sidney Jones left in the first half with a hamstring injury. The Giants had LB Ray Ray Amstrong (concussion), WR Cody Latimer (hamstring) and CB Antonio Hamilton (illness) leave the game.

    BARKLEY GAINS: Barkley has gained at least 100 yards from scrimmage in each of his first six career games. He is one off the NFL rookie record set by Kansas City's Kareem Hunt.

    UP NEXT

    Eagles: Host Carolina on Oct. 21.

    Patriots: At Atlanta on Oct. 22.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    NFL RECORD FOR SEPT......

    DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

    Totals...............63-47-1.....57.27%.....+56.50

    NFL BEST BETS:

    DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

    Totals....................23 - 15................+32.50..................22 - 16..............+22.00............+34.50


    *****************************

    Nfl Record For October......

    DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

    10/11/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
    10/08/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
    10/07/2018 14-10-0 58.33% +15.00
    10/04/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
    10/01/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

    Total............19-13-0.........59.37%.....+23.50

    ********************

    Best Bets For October

    DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

    10/11/2018..............0 - 1..................-5.50....................1 - 0................+5.00...............-0.50
    10/08/2018..............1 - 0..................+5.00...................1 - 0................+5.00..............+10.00
    10/07/2018..............4 - 5..................-7.50....................6 - 4................+8.00...............+0.50
    10/04/2018..............0 - 1..................-5.50....................0 - 1.................-5.50...............-11.00
    10/01/2018..............1 - 0.................+5.00....................1 - 0................+5.00..............+10.00

    Totals......................5 - 7...................-8.50....................9 - 5................+17.50............+9.00
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-14-2018 at 12:14 PM.
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    Friday’s six-pack

    NFL trends for Week 6:

    — Texans are 2-8 vs spread in their last ten games.

    — Pittsburgh is 3-8 vs spread in its last 11 games.

    — Tennessee is 11-3-1 vs spread coming off its last 15 losses.

    — New England is 17-6-3 in last 26 games as home favorites.

    — Buccaneers are 8-3 vs spread in last 11 post-bye games.

    — Kansas City covered its last nine games.

    Quote of the Day
    “Ron Adams told me that Tex (Winter) knew more about the history of the game and the fundamentals of the game than anybody he had ever met in his life. I was lucky enough to play for Tex for five years and learn from him.

    A lot of what I do here with the Warriors is patterned from things I learned from Tex. What a life he lived. He was a unique individual and touched thousands of lives. Today, the news was tough. Tex was a special person to me and everyone that played for him.”
    Steve Kerr

    Friday’s quiz
    Who did the Cincinnati Bengals beat the last time they won a playoff game, in 1990?

    Thursday’s quiz
    Milwaukee Brewers were last in a World Series in 1982, losing to St Louis in 7 games.

    Wednesday’s quiz
    Cam Newton played college football for both Florida and Auburn.

    **************************

    Friday’s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here……..

    13) If you like/love basketball, the specials that ESPN is putting out on the history of the game seem to be very well done; saw a couple of them this week, one piece about the finals of the 1972 Olympic basketball tournament, another on the first ABA dunk contest. Lot of history there; it is well worth your time if you’re a basketball person.

    12) My hotel room at the Golden Nugget had free earplugs on the nightstand; didn’t come close to needing them until tonight, when there was a concert in the park next to the hotel. Very loud, but music from the 80’s, so I passed on using the earplugs.

    There is also a tattoo convention at the hotel this weekend, and a ton of motorcyclists; not sure if those two things are related, but the hallways look like a Duck Dynasty class reunion.

    11) Highly recommend the Golden Nugget by the way; great pool, food places are real good and people here are real nice. Its been a fun vacation.

    10) New restaurants I’ve tried/enjoyed for the last eight days in Las Vegas:
    — The Grotto (in Golden Nugget). Very good pizza and meatball sliders
    — Claim Jumper (in Golden Nugget). Open 24 hours, lot of good choices.
    — Chicago Joe’s. Old-fashioned Italian place that actually used to be someone’s house. Very good food, excellent prices; it is right next to a very sketchy-looking apartment complex.
    — Pizza Rock— Really good pizza, lot of TV’s, a little expensive.
    — Hash House a Go-Go (in Plaza Hotel). Big portions, very good scrambled eggs.

    9) Lakers-Warriors was an unusually intense exhibition game Wednesday; was watching end of the game in the sportsbook— guy on the Lakers stole the ball, went in for a dunk, and the only other guy in there with me says excitedly “That put the game over the total!!!”

    If you’re wagering on totals in NBA exhibition games, you’ve got a better stomach than I do.

    8) Doug McDermott is playing for the Indiana Pacers this season, 5th team he’ll play for in his fifth NBA season; he was also traded by the Nuggets the night he got drafted in 2014, so thats six teams for him in 4+ years.

    7) Eagles 34, Giants 13— Philly evened its record at 3-3 in game where their first two TD drives were only 16-44 yards. Giants have a porous offensive line, an aging, immobile QB and a 1-5 record, which should make the back page of the NY tabloids interesting.

    6) Why teams win/lose; looking back at the 2009 NBA Draft:

    2nd pick— Memphis, Hasheem Thabeet
    3rd pick— Oklahoma City, James Harden

    6th pick— Minnesota, Jonny Flynn
    7th pick— Golden State, Stephen Curry

    9th pick— New York, Jordan Hill
    10th pick— Toronto, DeMar DeRozan

    5) One weekend each year, the NBA should use red, white and blue basketballs in its games to honor the ABA, which closed shop after the 1975-76 season.

    Lot of terrific players in the ABA (George Gervin, Julius Erving, Rick Barry, Artis Gilmore, Dan Issel, even Wilt Chamberlain briefly). Their teams played an exciting style of ball.

    4) Shahid Khan owns the Jacksonville Jaguars; he is trying to buy Wembley Stadium in London and if he does, he may have the Jaguars play half their home games there every year. Would this be a good thing for the NFL? For the Jaguars? We may find out.

    3) Chicago Cubs fired hitting coach Chili Davis Thursday; if the Phillies or some other team has half a brain, they’ll sign Davis— he’s a damn good hitting coach.

    2) NBA’s Minnesota Timberwolves cancelled practice and team activities Thursday, after the circus that was Wednesday, with Jimmy Butler taking the four worst players in camp and then beating the five starters in a scrimmage, while he yelled at the team’s coach and GM.

    1) Former Ole Miss football coach Hugh Freeze will be offensive coordinator for the Arizona team in the new AAF next spring. Lot of big names will be coaching in the 8-team league.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-12-2018 at 01:51 AM.
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    Saturday’s six-pack

    College football trends for Week 6:

    — Arkansas beat Ole Miss 38-37 LY; they trailed 31-7 at the half.

    — Wisconsin covered its last four games with Michigan.

    — Home side is 14-3-1 vs spread in last 18 UCLA-Cal games.

    — Florida is 7-3 vs spread in its last 10 visits to Vanderbilt.

    — Home side is 5-1-1 vs spread in last seven Buffalo-Akron games.

    — Kansas State covered 11 of last 14 games with Oklahoma State.

    Quote of the Day

    “If it was easy, everyone would be rich.”
    Sean Higgs, talking about sports betting

    Saturday’s quiz
    Dodgers’ P Clayton Kershaw was the center on his HS football team; who was the QB?

    Friday’s quiz
    Cincinnati Bengals beat the Houston Oilers the last time they won a playoff game, in 1990.

    Thursday’s quiz
    Milwaukee Brewers were last in a World Series in 1982, losing to St Louis in 7 games.


    ******************************


    Saturday’s List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind……

    13) Brewers 6, Dodgers 5— Knabel struck Turner out with tying run on third base to end the game. Dodgers made four errors; Milwaukee used seven pitchers.

    12) This game wasn’t on FOX, it was on FS1, which isn’t shown in most hotel rooms around the country, and probably isn’t in the regular channel rotation for many casual fans.

    Major League Baseball has to market itself better; they just have to. There is a level of arrogance that people will kill themselves to find these playoff games; the casual fan will not, and to grow the game, baseball needs to engage the casual fan better.

    This is the freakin’ NLCS, its a big deal; if FOX Sports doesn’t see fit to put these games on FOX instead of FS1, then FOX shouldn’t be showing the games.

    Last night, Warriors-Lakers were on ESPN2, there were three college football games, and baseball is hiding its main event on FS1. Really, thats not intelligent.

    11) During Eagles-Giants Thursday night, Troy Aikman was talking about filming commercials with Hulk Hogan, and how much he enjoyed meeting/working with the Hulkster.

    Everyone has their own preferences, but to me, Aikman and Tony Romo are the best NFL game analysts, and I’m not a Cowboy fan.

    The best analysts are guys who when you listen to them, its like you’re sitting in, eavesdropping on two friends talking ball. Relaxed conversation, but with decisive opinions.

    10) Eli Manning will turn 38 years old on January 3; the Giants are 1-5, and don’t have an offensive line that is good enough to protect an immobile QB.

    It is time (it was time last year) for the Giants to move on- hey, Joe Montana finished his career with the Chiefs, Johnny Unitas was a Charger at the end, and Manning is no Montana/Unitas. It happens. Giants need to play Kyle Lauletta and see if he could be the answer going forward.

    9) Former Clemson QB Kelly Bryant quit the Tigers few weeks ago, is now looking for his next home; North Carolina, Arkansas, Louisville and Missouri are the frontrunners right now.

    8) Sports gambling is now legal in five states; New Jersey, Nevada, Delaware, Mississippi and West Virginia. What will that number be up to by this time next year?

    From June 14-August 31, gamblers in New Jersey placed $95.6M worth of bets on sports, and the state collected $16.5M in profits.

    As usual, New York is twiddling its thumbs and losing money.

    7) Arizona Diamondbacks are switching to artificial turf next year, after having natural grass for the first 21 years of their existence at Chase Field.

    6) New York SS Didi Gregorius is having Tommy John surgery, will miss most of next season. Average recovery time for non-pitchers who have this surgery is ten months, which fuels the speculation that Manny Machado will be headed to the Bronx this winter.

    5) Last week in the NFL, there were six missed PAT’s and 16 missed field goals, which is a lot; when a guy missed four FG’s and a PAT in a dome, you realize how mental kicking can be.

    4) Double digit underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in NFL games so far this season.

    3) Best red zone offenses in NFL (pts/possession):
    Seattle 6.20, Kansas City 6.05, Pittsburgh 5.57, New England 5.56.

    Worst red zone offenses:
    Jets 3.53, Jacksonville 3.62, Denver 3.87, Houston 4.05

    2) Best offenses on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
    Chiefs/Saints 2.87, Bengals 2.83, Falcons 2.66.

    Worst offenses on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
    Cardinals 0.87, Bills 0.90, Texans 0.97, Browns 1.04

    1) South Florida 25, Tulsa 24— Bulls are 7-0, but trailed three of those games in 4th quarter and a fourth game was tied in final frame. Tulsa led this game 24-10, let it slip away.

    I watched this game on the plane ride home from Las Vegas; thanks to these teams for playing an entertaining game and making a usually-dull flight seem a lot shorter.

    USF’s QB is Blake Barnett, who started Alabama’s opener in 2016, got benched, transferred to Arizona State, got beat out there, transferred and now is getting his chance to play— he was at a junior college in there somewhere too. This is a make-or-break year for him, and he is doing the most with the opportunity.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    Chiefs at Patriots
    October 12, 2018
    By Bookmaker


    by Kyle Markus

    NFL Preview - Kansas CIty Chiefs at New England Patriots


    Each year it seems like a fashionable choice to win the AFC pops up early in the season, until the New England Patriots restore order by rising to the top of the pack. The Kansas City Chiefs are the hot team through five weeks as they have started the year undefeated behind an explosive offense. The Chiefs could make a big statement in Week 6 when they hit the road to face the Patriots, but capturing a victory sure won’t be easy.

    The playoffs are still a long way away but these two teams are clearly among the top contenders in the AFC. Kansas City has looked like the best team in the conference early on but the oddsmakers know the outstanding track record of the Patriots. Not surprisingly, the Patriots are home favorites in this matchup in NFL wagering.

    This NFL football game between the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots will be held at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts at 8:20 p.m ET on Sunday, October 14th, 2018. The game will be nationally televised on NBC.

    We'll have NFL football odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game of the 2018 NFL season.

    Odds Analysis


    The Patriots are 3-point favorites in this matchup. The home team generally gets that number of points for the location, which means the talent level has been pegged as even in this one. New England was a 3.5-point favorite earlier in the week but there is some momentum behind Kansas City. The Patriots are the -175 favorites while the Chiefs are listed as the +151 underdogs. The scoring total is listed at 59 points in NFL odds.

    In addition to these standard wagers, bettors can take a look at in-game live betting. Pick up on trends and then make some live wagers to help the bankroll.

    Key Stat

    35. That’s the number of points per game the Chiefs are averaging this season, which is second in the NFL. They have scored at least 27 points in every game this season, including 30 points last time out in an easy win over an elite Jacksonville Jaguars defense. Young quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been fantastic, throwing for 1,513 yards with 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions.

    Wide receiver Tyreek Hill is an elite weapon as he has 27 catches for 425 yards and three scores on the year, while tight end Travis Kelce has 28 catches for 407 yards and three scores. The Patriots’ defense is not great and could have a ton of trouble slowing down the Chiefs.

    Injury Report

    Chiefs safety Eric Reid has been sidelined all season with a heel injury and it figures to keep him out of this one as well. Linebacker Justin Houston also seems likely to be sidelined with a hamstring injury. He has three sacks on the season.

    Patriots running back Sony Michel has been limited with a knee injury in practice this week. New England has been hit hard by injuries at the position but Michel has filled in well as the main running back. It would be a key loss if he can’t play but it’s unclear how serious the injury is at this point. Wide receiver Chris Hogan missed practice on Thursday with a thigh injury.

    Free NFL ATS Picks

    The Patriots always seem to play well in these big-time clashes but the Chiefs have the look of a truly special. The spread really begs for a wager on Kansas City, and a moneyline play on the Chiefs to pull the upset would also be a worthy bet. This is a primetime game so there will be plenty of live betting wagers available throughout the contest.

    NFL ATS Pick: Kansas City Chiefs 34, New England Patriots 30
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    Jaguars at Cowboys
    October 12, 2018


    By Tom Wilkinson

    NFL Preview – Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Dallas Cowboys


    The anemic offense of the Dallas Cowboys doesn’t figure to have much success on Sunday, as the Cowboys host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday on CBS. The Cowboys are averaging just 16.6 points per game, which is 30th in the NFL, while the Jacksonville defense is giving up just 17.2 points per game, 3rd in the league.

    That number for the Jaguars should actually improve, as the Jaguars have already faced two of the top offensive teams in the league in Kansas City and New England. Let’s look at Sunday’s game and NFL picks.

    Date and Time: Sunday, October 14, 2018, 4:25 p.m. ET
    Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
    NFL Odds at BetDSI: Jaguars -3, O/U 40.5
    Jaguars vs. Cowboys TV Coverage: CBS


    The Jaguars come into this game at 3-2 which is actually not that bad considering they have a minus-7 turnover ratio. Jacksonville has lost five fumbles and Blake Bortles has thrown seven interceptions. If the Jaguars could simply avoid turning the ball over they would win almost every time. "We're 3-2 but minus-7, which is really tough to do, be 3-2 and be minus-7 in the turnover ratio," head coach Doug Marrone said to the media, "It's a trend that I talked about with the team today. If we don't change that, we're going to be in trouble. We have to change that." Jacksonville is averaging just over 20 points per game and giving up just over 17 per contest.

    The Jaguars have had a good rushing attack which has taken the pressure of Bortles, but this season they have struggled to run the ball without top running back Leonard Fournette who is still out due to injury. It is so bad the Jaguars signed free agent Jamaal Charles this week. Charles will serve as the backup to T.J. Yeldon on Sunday.

    The Cowboys come into this game at 2-3 and the pressure is building on head coach Jason Garrett. It is almost inconceivable that Garrett still has a job considering the Cowboys have won nothing with Garrett as head coach, but owner Jerry Jones hasn’t seen the light. Dallas has a good running back in Ezekiel Elliott and a serviceable defense, but the Cowboys simply can’t throw the ball effectively and in today’s NFL it is hard to win without a good passing attack.

    Matchup to Watch

    The key matchup in this game is Elliott against the Jacksonville run defense. If the Cowboys can’t run the ball they are not going to win. Elliott is still one of the top running backs in the league and if he has a big game the Cowboys can win this contest. The Jaguars are just 14th in the league against the run, so perhaps Elliott can find some running room. Elliott is the NFL’s leading rusher and he is averaging 5.2 yards per carry against defenses that are stacked up to stop the run.

    Key Stats

    The Jaguars are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games in October. The Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in October. The Under is 4-1 in the Jaguars last 5 road games. The Under is 12-2 in the Cowboys last 14 games overall. The Under is 5-2 in the Cowboys last 7 home games. The Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in this series.

    Jaguars vs. Cowboys Picks


    The Cowboys are simply an average team going nowhere with Garrett as head coach. Dallas plays well enough defensively to stay in games, but they simply don’t have the passing attack to beat good teams. The Jaguars should be able to find a way to win and cover this game as long as Bortles doesn’t give the game away. I also think it should be one of the few defensive struggles we see in the NFL this week. This total is low at 40.5, but I just can’t see either team doing much offensive. I will also play the game to go under the total.

    Jaguars vs. Cowboys Pick: Jaguars -3 and Under 40.5 at BetDSI
    Jaguars vs. Cowboys Score Prediction: Jaguars 23, Cowboys 10
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    Top Total Plays - Week 6
    October 12, 2018
    By Bookmaker


    by Kyle Markus

    NFL Football - Top NFL Totals Plays Week 6


    The scoring in the NFL just keeps going up, and it doesn’t seem like there is any chance of it slowing down this week. The “Thursday Night Football” between the Eagles and Giants easily hit the over on the scoring total and oddsmakers have to be watching and hoping for some defensive battles to get some money back.

    At this point the “over” is going to be jumped on by the majority of bettors and it will be interesting to see what kind of totals emerge in Week 7. While high-scoring affairs have been common there will still be plenty of games that go “under” the expected totals. Here is a look at some of the best totals plays in NFL gambling.

    Odds Analysis - per BookMaker.eu

    The Los Angeles Chargers have an explosive offense but they are going on the road this week to face off against the Cleveland Browns. The Browns’ defense is more talented than many give them credit for. The scoring total is listed at 44.5 points and the “under” is the right call on this one.

    The Chicago Bears are hitting the road to face off against the Miami Dolphins. Chicago is coming off a bye but put together a dominant showing last time out against the Buccaneers. The scoring total is pretty low at 41.5 points. While the offenses aren’t great, some takeaways should result in either defensive touchdowns or good field position and easy touchdowns. Go with the “over” in this matchup.

    The New York Jets played well last time out and will welcome the Indianapolis Colts to town. Indy quarterback Andrew Luck has been throwing the ball around a ton the past few weeks and the Colts will likely have a newfound dedication to the ground game in this one. Take the “under” on the 45-point scoring total.

    The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons are expected to face off in a defense-optional showdown this week. The scoring total is one of the highest among all games at 57 points. While the Falcons should be able to live up to their end of the bargain offensively, Tampa Bay will likely struggle. Take the “under” on the total as the Buccaneers aren’t going to score enough points.

    The Jacksonville Jaguars are expected to be in a defensive slugfest against the Dallas Cowboys. The scoring total has gone up a half-point in recent days but it is still low at 40.5 points. Even so, the Jaguars are so elite defensively that the “under” still seems like the right call. In an NFL that continues to get more spread out, both of these teams like to run the ball and will be happy to be involved in a low-scoring affair.

    The Green Bay Packers will host the San Francisco 49ers on “Monday Night Football.” The 49ers’ offense could have some trouble without quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who is out for the season, while Green Bay’s offense is also having some issues. The “under” on the 46.5-point total is the choice in this one.

    Free NFL ATS Picks

    The best wager on the scoring total is the much-anticipated matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots. If this game is lopsided one way or the other it could be tough for the “over” to hit. However, the feeling here is that the teams will trade titanic blows and plenty of points. The total points of 59 is high but take the “over.” The Chiefs and Patriots both have star quarterbacks and plenty of playmakers around them. The defenses will be powerless to stop this shootout in NFL gambling.

    NFL ATS Pick: Take the “over” on the Kansas City Chiefs-New England Patriots showdown
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    Top Props - Chiefs vs. Patriots
    October 12, 2018
    By BetDSI


    By Tom Wilkinson

    NFL Betting – Chiefs vs. Patriots Props


    One of the best matchups so far this season takes place on Sunday night, as the Kansas City Chiefs visit the New England Patriots on NBC. It is a matchup featuring Patrick Mahomes and the high scoring Kansas City offense against Tom Brady and the gold standard of the AFC, the Patriots. Props will also be available on the first team to score, sacks, point scored, etc. Let’s look at this Week 6 matchup and some props picks.

    Date and Time: Sunday, October 14, 2018, 8:20 p.m. ET
    Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
    NFL Odds at BetDSI: Patriots -3 (-120), O/U 59.5
    Chiefs vs. Patriots TV Coverage: NBC


    First to Score a Touchdown

    The Patriots are a slight favorite to win this game and they will be a slight favorite to score the first touchdown. If you think the Patriots are going to score first you will probably have to deal with Kansas City getting the first possession of the game. The Chiefs will probably take the ball first if they win the coin toss, while the Patriots always defer if they win the toss. There could be some value in taking Kansas City to score the first TD of the game, but keep in mind that this game is on the road and Bill Belichick will have his defense ready for Mahomes.

    Quarterback Props

    Much of the attention on the props on Sunday night will be on the quarterbacks with props on Mahomes and Brady. Mahomes has been nearly perfect this season, but this is a high profile matchup against a New England defense that Bill Belichick will have ready. Taking some of the Mahomes props under could be the way to go with the quarterback props on Sunday night.

    I would also lean to the over with the Brady props, as the Kansas City defense is very poor and they are terrible against the pass. The Chiefs are giving up a league-high 343 yards per game through the air, by far the worst in the NFL. Sunday night should be a field day for Brady and the New England offense.

    Running Back Props

    The Chiefs have a good running back in Kareem Hunt and props will be on the board for him, while props will be on the board for New England running backs James White and Sony Michel. The Patriots should be able to run the ball effectively against a bad Kansas City defense, so going over the total on White and Michel may be the way to go.

    I said that the Chiefs were bad against the pass, but they are not much better against the pass, as they are giving up 118.8 yards per game, 24th in the league.

    Wide Receiver Props

    There will be some interesting numbers on the receiver and tight end props. The Chiefs have a dynamic receiver in Tyreek Hill, while the Patriots have a group of receivers led by Julian Edelman. I think you can go over the total on all of the New England receivers. The Kansas City secondary is very poor and I expect New England to score almost at will in this game.

    Take all of the New England receivers to go over their totals and don’t forget about Rob Gronkowski, as he should have a big game against the Kansas City defense.

    Chiefs vs. Patriots Props Picks

    The total on this game is almost 60, so oddsmakers expect a very high scoring game. The Chiefs are scoring 35 points per game, while the Patriots are averaging 26.6 points per contest. The Patriots have the far better defense in this game and they are playing at home, so Kansas City may get slowed down a little bit. I think the value in this game is going to be on New England players.

    I think you can make a case for taking a number of the New England players over their totals and I especially like the New England receivers. The Chiefs are last in the NFL against the pass and they should get torched in this game by all of the New England receivers.
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    Value Plays - Week 6
    October 12, 2018
    By YouWager.eu


    NFL Week 6 Value Plays of the Week

    Week 6 of the NFL season is already underway, with the Philadelphia Eagles back to .500 on the year after laying a beating on the New York Giants, whose season now looks dead in the water.

    There are a few other teams teetering on the brink of insignificance as we look forward to the games on Sunday. There are a lot of must win games on the schedule, some of which might feature into our value plays for the weekend.

    Let’s jump right in and look at 4 games where you might just be able to make some money at very decent odds, as usual, all odds, props and futures are sponsored by YouWager.eu

    Houston Texans (-10) vs. Buffalo Bills

    There is a lot to be said for momentum in professional sports, and it’s fair to suggest that the Houston Texans have it at the moment. They lost the opening 3 games of the season, but they have now won back to back games, with both of those victories coming in OT. I think that this team is due for a breakout game and I would not be surprised to see it come this weekend. They are in as a 10-point favorite over a Buffalo Bills team that is doing better than most folks expected. Still, this looks like a solid mismatch, which is why I am all over the Texans to cover.

    Chicago Bears (-3 ) at Miami Dolphins

    The Miami Dolphins are a team in real danger of heading into a tailspin of they don’t get things turned around quickly. They got off to a very positive start this season, winning their first 3 games, but back to back losses to the Patriots and the Bengals have them reeling. The offense has gone very cold very quickly, which is not good news against a Bears defense that is establishing itself as one of the best units in the league. The signing of Khalil Mack looks like a stroke of genius, as he is already putting up MVP style numbers. I like Chicago to cover the spread on the road.

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    Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (OVER 57)

    Even this early in the season, this is a crucial game for both of these teams. The Falcons in particular need some help, as they are off to a 1-4 start to the season, with their latest defeat being a rather humbling 41-17 loss to the Steelers on the road. It’s not overstating things to say that their season could be over if they lose this one, especially with the Saints and Panthers continuing to pick up wins at the top of the NFC South. The Bucs have cooled off a little after a great start to the season, but their offense may be able to get good again going against a banged-up Falcons secondary. Let’s take the OVER at odds of -110.

    Indianapolis Colts (SU) at New York Jets

    If we are going to see an underdog win this weekend, why not the Indianapolis Colts. They are on the road in the Big Apple, facing a New York Jets team still struggling to get the best out of their rookie QB Sam Darnold. The young man has had some positive moments, but for the most part, he is struggling to adapt to life as an NFL starter. The Colts have not been winning games, but they are having Andrew Luck throw the ball a lot. I think he might just be able to victimize the Jets D, which is why I am taking the Indianapolis Colts SU at odds of +115.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  15. #270
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    Monday's Best Bet
    October 12, 2018
    By YouWager.eu


    NFL Week 6 MNF Betting Preview
    San Francisco vs Green Bay


    I was able to cash in easy fashion with the Saints a week ago, as it was a night that quickly became about Drew Brees and his passing record after the Saints had won the game by halftime. It was a much-needed blowout win for this Saints team that has now won two in a row comfortably and are right back in the conversation as a Super Bowl contender in the NFC this year.

    One of the Saints NFC rivals that was at least a part of that conversation at the beginning of the year were the Green Bay Packers. Green Bay is 2-2 SU and still trying to figure out to best manage this hobbled Aaron Rodgers situation, but they host a 1-4 SU San Francisco team on Monday night who wish their starting QB was only “hobbled.” Can the Packers take advantage of the opportunity to seemingly get an easy blowout home MNF win themselves?

    YouWager.euOdds: Green Bay (-10); Total set at 46.5

    The leg injury that Aaron Rodgers has been dealing with since Week 1 appears to be one he and the Green Bay organization will deal with until the outcome of the Packers season becomes clearer, but for now it's all about winning as many games as they can and see where the chips rest come late-November or so. Chances are the playoffs will be out of the picture if Green Bay continues to squander opportunities like they did a week ago with four missed kicks, but Rodgers has some culpability in those drives too as he and the Pack continued to stall at the worst times.

    That's a sign of just how the lack of practice time with one another between Rodgers and the rest of his banged up offense affects this team on Sundays. It's a big reason why laying those 10 points with Green Bay seems awfully risky, even against 49ers QB with a backup QB starting. Green Bay's offense hasn't scored more than 23 points in three consecutive weeks, and with the defense they've got (allowed 23+ in four of five games), chances are you'll need Rodgers and company to put up more than 23 points if you want to comfortably cash a -10 point spread ticket. That trepidation on taking the Green Bay side – can't look at the 49ers here on the road either – has me looking at this total and seeing it as point or two too high.

    From a San Francisco 49ers perspective, the last thing you really want to do as a team is go into Green Bay with a backup QB and a defense that's allowed over 30 points per game the past three weeks (29.2 on the season), and get into a shootout with Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers might be hobbled, but he's still picking apart secondaries when he gets time in the pocket. That means that heavy dose of the San Francisco ground game should be expected here, as SF attempts to shorten the game and give themselves their best shot at winning the game. I'm not sure how attainable that end goal is going to be for the 49ers, but considering Green Bay ranks 20th in the NFL in rush yards allowed per attempt (4.2), finding success on the ground shouldn't be that hard for San Francisco in this spot.

    For Green Bay, nothing would be better than jumping out to an early 14-17 point lead, put the game on cruise control in the 2nd half and give Rodgers some time off on the sideline to steal any rest time he can get. That's a scenario where we would see plenty of running plays from the Packers once that lead is established, bleeding the clock and getting through the week as healthy as possible. It would end up being similar to the last time they played in front of their home crowd – a 22-0 win over Buffalo – as the Packers defense were able to frustrate a young, inexperienced QB all afternoon long. The same can be done with Beathard here.

    The Packers could also end up winning this game in a dogfight, with both defenses holding their own, and the offenses on both sides getting points after long drives. That script of gameplay has a tough time lending itself to anything but the 'under' in terms of the total as I'm not sure how you can trust either offense – especially San Francisco – to score 23+ points. Green Bay's defense has had some quality play sustained for long periods of time at home this year; shutting out Buffalo, for the first three quarters vs Minnesota, and holding Chicago to 6 2nd half points) and could easily show up in that way here too.

    In the end, the fact that this game is already hard to make a case for the 'over' for how it potentially plays out, and then seeing a strong majority (85%+ according to VegasInsider.com) is already on the high side of the total yet it hasn't budged, suggests to me that the 'under' is the way to go here.

    Green Bay isn't looking to run up the score on anyone right now, and San Francisco is not an offense I want to trust to score more than 14 points anywhere but than at home. Look for the running games to be the story for both sides on the night, as all that handing off keeps that clock running and hopefully this 'under' play cashing.

    Odds per - YouWager.eu

    Best Bet: Under 46.5
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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