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Thread: Sunday's WNBA Trends and Indexes - 8/26

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    Default Sunday's WNBA Trends and Indexes - 8/26

    Trends and Indexes

    Sunday, August 26

    Good Luck on day #238 of 2018!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

    — John McCain’s mother is still alive; she is 106 years old.

    — Reds’ P Homer Bailey makes $21M this year; Cincinnati is 1-16 in his starts.

    — Hawai’i 43, Colorado State 34— Ugly start to the season for the Rams.

    — Wyoming 29, New Mexico State 7— Disappointing home opener for the Aggies.

    — Washington Nationals have been shut out in their last three games.

    — Betting handle for Travers Day at Saratoga Saturday was $52,086,597; that includes everywhere around the country where people wager on horse racing. On-track handle was $11,466,264.

    **********

    Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but…….

    13) ESPN’s Sunday night game this week is New York-Baltimore, because ESPN is obsessed with New York and the Red Sox. There is no other way to explain it.

    Putting the pathetic (37-93) Orioles on national TV in late August during the heat of the pennant race is gross stupidity. Meanwhile, Cardinals-Rockies is an important series in the NL Wild Card race, but no chance ESPN ever puts Colorado on national TV, and for that, they’re idiots.

    12) Milwaukee Brewers beat the Pirates 7-6 in 15 innings Friday night, in a strange game where the Brewers scored four times in the first inning, blew a 9th-inning lead, then scored three times to win the game after Pittsburgh grabbed a 6-4 lead in the 15th.

    Milwaukee never scored from the 2nd to 14th inning; they were down 6-4 in the 15th, had two on and two out with pitcher Jordan Lyles, a career .123 hitter up- he drew a walk, and two hits later, the Brewers had an emotional win.

    11) Why did the Cubs trade for Daniel Murphy? Murphy has the best batting average of any regular player ever at Wrigley Field, over .400.

    10) One of my all-time favorite TV shows was Magnum, PI; for better or worse, I can still recite stuff from episodes I first saw 35 years ago.

    CBS is re-making Magnum PI this fall; not sure how I feel about that.

    9) Detroit Lions tried a 62-yard FG just before the half in Tampa Friday; Adam Humphries caught the ball nine yards deep in the end zone and ran it back 109 yards for a TD, lot like the Alabama-Auburn game a few years ago.

    Not a lot of real fast, athletic guys blocking for field goals, so Detroit’s tackling was suspect.

    8) Lions were down 27-6 in third quarter of this (meaningless) game, but rallied to win 33-30, scoring a TD with 0:30 left for the win, after an 80-yard punt return for a TD brought them back to within 30-26 with 4:53 left. Meaningless, but very entertaining.

    7) New Orleans Saints faked a punt in the first quarter of their game with the Chargers Saturday, then went for 2 points after their first TD. Thats what preseason games are for, to try stuff. In two weeks, everyone will get real conservative and we’ll know the regular season is here.

    6) I wouldn’t hate it if the NFL put in a rule that said any kickoff that went thru the uprights would be worth one point, kind of like a rouge in the CFL. Would make kickoffs more exciting.

    5) Pretty big change to basketball recruiting next spring/summer; there will be only two weekends of games (one in April, one in July) where college coaches can go to the games.

    4) Hall of Fame pitcher Bert Blyleven, who made his living with a great curveball, says kids shouldn’t throw a curve until they’re 13 or 14 years old.

    3) Happy 72nd birthday to the great Rollie Fingers, who saved 341 games during his Hall of Fame career. In his five busiest seasons, Fingers AVERAGED five outs an appearance, which means he would come in with one out in the 8th inning and finish the game.

    Anybody doing that these days?

    2) RIP to Senator John McCain, who passed away Saturday after a bout with brain cancer. He had a lot of what we need more of today; character, guts and the knowledge that even though we often disagree on things, we’re all Americans and our opinions need to be tolerated.

    RIP, sir.

    1) This tweet is from Steve Schmidt, who ran Sen McCain’s Presidential campaign in 2008:

    “John McCain belongs to the ages. He perfectly loved this country and served it with valor, courage and integrity for 60 years. He was a patriot and a hero and America will never see a political leader like him again. He was the greatest man I’ve ever known. Godspeed John McCain”

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    Cheat Sheet - Semifinals

    The WNBA playoffs field has been cut in half from eight to four and the semifinals will begin today.

    In the first two rounds, the favorites have dominated the postseason with a 3-1 record and the lone outlier was Phoenix, who upset Connecticut in the second round on Sunday. Three of the four outcomes were decided by double digits and total bettors have watched the ‘over’ go 3-1 as well.

    The Mercury will now face top overall seed Seattle as an underdog. The winner of that matchup will face Atlanta or Washington in the Finals and despite owning homecourt advantage, the oddsmakers have the Dream as underdogs to the Mystics in their latest future numbers.

    Odds to win 2018 WNBA Finals
    Seattle Storm 6/5
    Washington Mystics 5/2
    Atlanta Dream 5/1
    Phoenix Mercury 5/1

    The best-of-five series will begin on Sunday Aug. 26 before Game 2’s taking place on Tuesday Aug. 28. Possible eliminations are set for Friday Aug. 31 and if necessary, Game 4’s and 5’s will be played on Sept. 2 and Sept. 4 respectively.

    (Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under - O/U)

    (2) Atlanta vs. (3) Washington

    Regular Season Meetings
    July 11 – Atlanta (+8) 106 at Washington 89 (Over 164.5)
    July 14 – Atlanta (+2) 80 vs. Washington 77 (Under 166)
    July 31 – Washington (+5.5) 86 at Atlanta 71 (Under 163)

    Current Form

    -- Atlanta closed the season with a 7-2 record both SU and ATS.

    -- The Dream went 4-1 at home during this span, with the lone loss coming to the Mystics on July 31.

    -- Washington has only lost one game since the All-Star break. The club is 9-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in its last 10 games, with one of the wins coming against Las Vegas by forfeit.

    -- The Mystics defeated Los Angeles 96-64 in the second round last Thursday, easily covering as 4 ½-point home favorites.

    ATS Numbers

    -- Atlanta went 23-11 ATS during the regular season, the best record in the WNBA.

    -- The Dream were 12-5 SU at home versus the number and 11-6 on the road.

    -- Considering 2017 was a down season for the franchise, the Dream didn’t get as much respect from the books early. They club was listed as an underdog 19 times and they posted an eye-opening 14-5 ATS mark.

    -- Atlanta went 14-3 ATS overall against winning clubs, going 6-2 at home and 8-1 on the road.

    -- Including Thursday’s playoff win over Los Angeles, Washington has gone 19-14-1 ATS this season.

    -- The Mystics weren’t as great at home versus the number (8-9) but they managed to turn a profit on the road with an 11-5-1 ATS mark.

    -- As an underdog, Washington went 8-5 ATS.

    -- Washington was just 10-8 vs. clubs above .500 but they were better on the road (6-4) than at home (4-4) in those games.

    -- Game 1 will be played in the afternoon and possibly Game 4. Make a note that the Dream are 10-5 ATS in the daylight hours, while the Mystics are 6-5-1 versus the number.

    Total Talk

    -- The ‘under’ went 20-14 for Atlanta, which included a 13-4 record at home.

    -- On the road, the Dream saw the ‘over’ go 10-7.

    -- Washington watched the ‘under’ go 18-17 this season.

    -- The Mystics went 9-9 at home while the ‘under’ held a slight edge on the road (9-8).

    Playoff Notes

    -- Washington has gone 3-0 both SU and ATS in its last three elimination games.

    -- However, the Mystics were swept 3-0 by Minnesota in the 2017 semifinals. All three setbacks came by double digits.

    -- This is the first trip to the postseason for the Dream since the 2016 playoffs. Atlanta went 1-1 both SU and ATS, winning at home before falling on the road in the second round. The ‘over’ cashed in both contests.

    Stats to Watch

    -- The Dream owned the third best scoring defense in the league, allowing 79.5 points per game.

    -- Washington allowed 81.4 PPG on the season.

    -- Atlanta led the league with 5.3 blocks per game and was ranked third in steals at 7.6 per game.

    -- The Mystics are shooting 85.8 percent from the free throw line, the best mark in the WNBA.

    -- The Dream only shot 74.6 percent from the stripe, which is ranked last in the league.



    (1) Seattle vs. (5) Phoenix

    Regular Season Meetings
    May 20 – Phoenix (+2.5) 87 at Seattle 82 (Over 155.5)
    May 23 – Seattle (+5.5) 87 at Phoenix 81 (Over 156.5)
    July 31 – Seattle (-3.5) 102 at Phoenix 91 (Over 170.5)

    Current Form

    -- Including the two victories in the playoffs, the Mercury have won six straight games.

    -- Only one of those wins came on the road, which occurred last Thursday in a 96-86 second round win over Connecticut.

    -- Seattle concluded its regular season with an 8-1 record and they posted a 7-2 mark versus the number during that span.

    ATS Numbers

    -- Seattle owned a 21-12-1 ATS mark this season.

    -- At home, the Storm went 8-8-1 versus the number. Seattle was a very sound investment on the road, going 13-4 ATS.

    -- The Mercury have gone 22-14 ATS this season.

    -- At home, Phoenix failed to turn a profit (8-10 ATS) but it was a great wager on the road with a 14-4 (78%) ATS mark.

    -- Seattle was only listed as an underdog seven times and it went 4-3 ATS.

    -- Phoenix has been outstanding in the ‘dog role this season, going 11-3 ATS.

    -- Both the Storm (11-8 ATS) and Mercury (8-6 ATS) were solid against clubs .500 in the regular season.

    -- Neither Phoenix (7-6) or Seattle (6-4-1) have boasted superb records in day games.

    Total Talk

    -- Seattle leaned slightly to the ‘over’ (18-16) in the regular season.

    -- The ‘under’ produced a slight 10-7 edge in the Emerald City while the ’over’ posted a 11-6 mark on the road.

    -- The Storm closed the season on a 3-0 ‘over’ run.

    -- Phoenix has watched the ‘over’ go 21-15 this season, which includes a 2-0 mark in this year’s postseason.

    -- The Mercury have been consistent to the high side at home (11-7) and on the road (10-8).

    -- Phoenix has watched the ‘over’ go 8-2 in its last 10 games, which includes a run of five straight.

    Playoff Notes

    -- Including this year’s outcomes, the Mercury have gone 6-0 both SU and ATS in their last six elimination games of the first and second round.

    -- The last two postseasons also watched Phoenix get swept 3-0 in each of their semifinal matchups. The Mercury went 1-5 ATS in those games, while the ‘over’ was 4-2.

    -- Seattle has gone 0-2 in its last two trips to the postseason, losing each of its elimination games. Last season, the Storm dropped a 79-69 decision at Phoenix.

    Stats to Watch

    -- Seattle led the league in field goal percentage (46.8%) and was second in offensive scoring at 87.6 PPG.

    -- Phoenix was ranked fourth in scoring offense (85.8 PPG).

    -- Seattle only surrendered 79.7 PPG and they were ranked second in free throw attempts allowed (15.9).

    -- Of the four remaining teams, the Mercury are the weakest team in terms of scoring defense (83.2 PPG).

    -- The Storm (24) and Mercury (23.5) were ranked first and second in the WNBA in 3-point attempts per game.

    -- Both Seattle (9) and Phoenix (8.5) were listed 1 and 2 in treys made per game as well.

    -- The Mercury played the slowest pace in the WNBA, only taking 65.3 attempts per game.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 08-26-2018 at 11:51 AM.

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    WNBA
    Long Sheet

    Sunday, August 26


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PHOENIX (22 - 14) at SEATTLE (26 - 8) - 8/26/2018, 5:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PHOENIX is 24-42 ATS (-22.2 Units) as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points since 1997.
    SEATTLE is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
    SEATTLE is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
    SEATTLE is 126-86 ATS (+31.4 Units) in home games vs. division opponents since 1997.
    SEATTLE is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
    SEATTLE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games this season.
    SEATTLE is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game this season.
    SEATTLE is 15-8 ATS (+6.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
    PHOENIX is 22-14 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
    PHOENIX is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as an underdog this season.
    PHOENIX is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games this season.
    PHOENIX is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in a road game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 this season.
    PHOENIX is 34-16 ATS (+16.4 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1997.
    PHOENIX is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) off an upset win as an underdog this season.
    PHOENIX is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more this season.
    PHOENIX is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) after scoring 75 points or more this season.
    PHOENIX is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
    PHOENIX is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
    PHOENIX is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
    SEATTLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SEATTLE is 5-5 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
    SEATTLE is 5-5 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    WASHINGTON (22 - 12) at ATLANTA (23 - 11) - 8/26/2018, 3:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    WASHINGTON is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
    WASHINGTON is 51-74 ATS (-30.4 Units) in road games in August or September games since 1997.
    WASHINGTON is 22-44 ATS (-26.4 Units) in road games on Sunday games since 1997.
    WASHINGTON is 27-44 ATS (-21.4 Units) in road games when playing with 2 days rest since 1997.
    ATLANTA is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) in all games this season.
    ATLANTA is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in home games this season.
    ATLANTA is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in a home game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 this season.
    ATLANTA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in August or September games this season.
    ATLANTA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) on Sunday games this season.
    ATLANTA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
    ATLANTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
    ATLANTA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after allowing 75 points or more this season.
    ATLANTA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) after scoring 75 points or more this season.
    ATLANTA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    ATLANTA is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games this season.
    ATLANTA is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game this season.
    ATLANTA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games this season.
    ATLANTA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
    WASHINGTON is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
    ATLANTA is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    WASHINGTON is 5-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
    WASHINGTON is 6-3 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    WNBA

    Sunday, August 26


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Washington Mystics
    Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    Washington is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
    Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
    Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
    Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Washington's last 14 games when playing Atlanta
    Washington is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    Washington is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    Atlanta Dream
    Atlanta is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 games
    Atlanta is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Atlanta's last 14 games
    Atlanta is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
    Atlanta is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Atlanta's last 18 games at home
    Atlanta is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Washington
    Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Atlanta's last 14 games when playing Washington
    Atlanta is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
    Atlanta is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Washington
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing at home against Washington


    Phoenix Mercury
    Phoenix is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 5 games
    Phoenix is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Phoenix is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 6 games on the road
    Phoenix is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games when playing Seattle
    Phoenix is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games when playing Seattle
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 7 games when playing Seattle
    Phoenix is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Seattle
    Phoenix is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Seattle
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
    Seattle Storm
    Seattle is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games
    Seattle is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
    Seattle is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
    Seattle is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games at home
    Seattle is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games when playing Phoenix
    Seattle is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games when playing Phoenix
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing Phoenix
    Seattle is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Phoenix
    Seattle is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Phoenix
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing at home against Phoenix


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 08-26-2018 at 11:52 AM.

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    WNBA
    Dunkel

    Sunday, August 26



    Phoenix @ Seattle

    Game 313-314
    August 26, 2018 @ 5:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Phoenix
    115.835
    Seattle
    114.167
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Phoenix
    by 1 1/2
    162
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Seattle
    by 6 1/2
    172 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Phoenix
    (+6 1/2); Under

    Washington @ Atlanta


    Game 315-316
    August 26, 2018 @ 3:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Washington
    116.935
    Atlanta
    114.307
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Washington
    by 2 1/2
    153
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Washington
    Pick
    163
    Dunkel Pick:
    Washington
    Under
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 08-26-2018 at 11:53 AM.

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