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Thread: CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (Thur., Aug. 9 - Sat., August 11)

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    Default CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (Thur., Aug. 9 - Sat., August 11)

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, August 9 - Saturday, August 11

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    CFL Betting Recap - Week 8
    Joe Williams


    League Betting Notes

    -- Favorites went 3-1 SU in Week 8
    -- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 ATS in Week 8
    -- Home teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 8
    -- Home/road teams posted a 2-2 ATS record in Week 8
    -- The 'Over/under' went 2-2 in Week 8

    Analysis

    Toronto (2-5) kicked off the week on Thursday night with an exciting 42-41 win against Ottawa (4-3), winning outright as a 6 1/2-point underdog. After opening the season with a 4-0 record for the 'under', the 'over' has connected in each of the past three. The Argonauts have forgotten how to play defense, allowing 39.7 points per game (PPG) across the past three.

    Edmonton (5-2) has won a season-high three straight games after winning against barely covering against Saskatchewan (3-4). The Eskimos have covered in back-to-back games for the first time this season, too, while the 'under' is 3-1 over their past four.

    The 'under' is 3-1-1 across the past five games for the Roughriders. Saskatchewan has had issues on offense, scoring 19 or fewer points in four of their past six outings.They're also averaging 19.0 PPG in their past three home contests, too.

    Johnny Manziel made his much-anticipated CFL debut, but it was a disaster for Montreal (1-6). His second pass of the game was an interception, the first of four picks on the night in a 50-11 stomping courtesy of Hamilton (3-4) continues, Manziel's first CFL team. QB Jeremiah Masoli outshined his former understudy, and the Ti-Cats picked up a much-needed victory of their own after going 0-3 SU/ATS across the past three.

    Calgary (7-0) kept their record unblemished with a 27-18 victory at home against BC Lions (2-4). Suddenly the Stamps are having issues covering, however, going 1-2 ATS over the past three after opening 4-0 ATS.

    For the Lions, they have covered a season-high three straight outings, and they're 2-0 ATS over the past two on the road after opening 0-2 ATS in their first two away from home.

    Team Betting Notes and A Look Ahead

    -- The Esks and Lions will tussle in Vancouver in Week 9, kicking off a three-game weekend in the CFL. Edmonton is 7-1 ATS in their past eight against the West, and 6-2 ATS in their past six on the road. The Lions are 4-10-1 ATS in their past 15 against teams with a winning record, 4-11-1 ATS in their past 16 against the West and 0-7-1 ATS in their past eight games in Week 9. BC is also 0-4 ATS in their past four tries against Edmonton.

    -- The Ti-Cats look to build on their rout of the Als, facing Winnipeg (4-3) in Manitoba. The Bombers have covered five of their seven games this season, and the 'over' is also 5-2. At home, the Bombers are a perfect 3-0 ATS to date, and the 'over' is also 3-0 in their three home outings.

    -- Hamilton has covered eight of their past 10 on the road, but they're just 6-13-2 ATS in the past 21 against teams with a winning overall mark. Winnipeg has covered seven of the past 10 at home, but they're just 2-5 ATS in their past seven following a bye week. Hamilton is 5-1 ATS in the past six trips to Winnipeg.

    -- The 'under' has connected in six straight meetings between the Ti-Cats and Bombers, and the under is 4-1 in the past five battles in Winnipeg.

    -- Montreal hit rock-bottom with a 39-point loss at home last week. They'll hit the road, but they are just 2-7 ATS in the past nine away from home, while going 1-5 ATS in the past six against winning sides. Montreal is also 5-17 ATS in the past 22 overall.

    -- The RedBlacks looks to stay hot against losing sides, going 7-3 ATS in the past 10 against teams with a losing record. They're also 7-3 ATS in the past 10 against the Eastern Conference. However, they have covered just one of the past five at home.

    -- Ottawa has dominated their series against Montreal, covering 10 of the past 11 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the past five at home. The 'under' has cashed in five straight meetings.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 08-08-2018 at 02:03 AM.

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    CFL Betting Notes - Week 9
    David Schwab

    Week 8 Betting Recap

    For the second week in a row in the CFL, the favorites went 3-1 straight-up. However, they were an even 2-2 against the spread. Toronto pulled off the lone SU upset on Thursday night with a thrilling 42-41 victory at home against Ottawa as a 6 ½-point underdog. Later on Thursday night, Edmonton got past Saskatchewan 26-19 to barely cover the 6 ½ points at home.

    On Friday night, Hamilton crushed Montreal 50-11 as a seven-point favorite on the road. Calgary remained perfect on the year with Saturday’ 27-18 victory against British Columbia, but it failed to cover as a heavy 12 ½-point favorite at home.

    Thursday, Aug. 9

    Edmonton Eskimos (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS) at British Columbia Lions (2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS)

    Point-spread: Edmonton -3 ½
    Total: 54

    Game Overview

    Edmonton has won its last two games both SU and ATS with much better consistency on each side of the ball. You know that things are going well when Mike Reilly completes just 48.1 percent of his 27 passing attempts for 257 yards and the Eskimos still win. With that performance last week, he has now thrown for a CFL-high 2,320 yards and 14 touchdowns in his first seven games. CJ Gable is third in the league in rushing yards with 481 on 94 attempts.

    The Lions became the first team this season to lose to Calgary by fewer than 10 points. They have now covered in their last three games while closing as underdogs in all three contests. Travis Lulay is firmly back in place as BC’s starting quarterback despite the losing record. He has put the ball up 112 times with 72 completions for 932 yards and four touchdown throws against two interceptions.

    Betting Trends

    -- The Eskimos are 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings and they have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games in this West Division matchup. The total has gone OVER in six of the last nine meetings.

    Friday, Aug. 10

    Hamilton Tiger-Cats (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS)

    Point-spread: Winnipeg -4
    Total: 57

    Game Overview

    The Tiger-Cats snapped a SU three-game losing streak while closing as favorites in convincing fashion. Granted they were playing Montreal, but there was some solid balance on offense with 250 yards passing and 169 yards on the ground. Credit Hamilton’s defense for making Johnny Manziel’s CFL debut at quarterback utterly forgettable. This unit picked him off four times while limiting the Alouettes to 107 yards through the air.

    Winnipeg went into last week’s bye with three victories (SU and ATS) in its previous four games. This includes a sweep against Toronto in a home-and-home series. Matt Nichols has completed 63.1 percent of his 111 passing attempts for 873 yards and five touchdowns in his first four starts at quarterback. Running back Andrew Harris leads the CFL in rushing with 638 yards and five scores on 105 attempts.

    Betting Trends

    -- Hamilton has an 8-4 edge ATS in the last 12 meetings in this inter-division tilt and it is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games against Winnipeg. The total has stayed UNDER in each of the last five meetings.

    Saturday. Aug. 11

    Montreal Alouettes (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS) at Ottawa RedBlacks (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS)

    Point-spread: Ottawa -13.5
    Total: 50

    Game Overview

    Things cannot get much worse for Montreal in its dismal one-win effort through its first seven games. Manziel was less than impressive in his CFL debut, but things should start to slow down a bit this week against an Ottawa defense that is suddenly suspect coming off last week’s fourth-quarter collapse against Toronto. The one positive takeaway for the Alouettes was the 176 yards it gained on the ground in last week’s lopsided loss.

    Ottawa blew a 24-point lead in the third quarter of last Thursday’s loss to the Argonauts. Quarterback Trevor Harris did his part with 381 yards passing and two touchdown throws behind a completion rate of 77.1 percent on 35 passing attempts. Running back William Powell was held to 35 yards rushing on 14 carries in that game. However, he is still ranked second in rushing overall in the CFL with 504 yards on 106 attempts.

    Betting Trends

    -- Ottawa has won its last five games against Montreal both SU and ATS with the total staying UNDER the closing betting line in all five matchups.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 08-11-2018 at 02:14 AM.

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    CFL
    Dunkel

    Week 9


    Thursday, August 9

    Edmonton @ BC Lions

    Game 351-352
    August 9, 2018 @ 10:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Edmonton
    114.888
    BC Lions
    108.565
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Edmonton
    by 6 1/2
    48
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Edmonton
    by 3 1/2
    54
    Dunkel Pick:
    Edmonton
    (-3 1/2); Under


    Friday, August 10

    Hamilton @ Winnipeg


    Game 353-354
    August 10, 2018 @ 8:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Hamilton
    113.557
    Winnipeg
    119.985
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Winnipeg
    by 6 1/2
    53
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Winnipeg
    by 4
    57
    Dunkel Pick:
    Winnipeg
    (-4); Under


    Saturday, August 11

    Montreal @ Ottawa


    Game 355-356
    August 11, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Montreal
    100.113
    Ottawa
    107.127
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Ottawa
    by 7
    58
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Ottawa
    by 13 1/2
    49 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Montreal
    (+13 1/2); Over
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 08-08-2018 at 02:05 AM.

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    CFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 9


    Thursday, August 9

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    EDMONTON (5 - 2) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (2 - 4) - 8/9/2018, 10:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    EDMONTON is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
    EDMONTON is 21-41 ATS (-24.1 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.
    BRITISH COLUMBIA is 58-33 ATS (+21.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    EDMONTON is 5-1 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
    EDMONTON is 5-1 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Friday, August 10

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    HAMILTON (3 - 4) at WINNIPEG (4 - 3) - 8/10/2018, 8:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    WINNIPEG is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in August games over the last 3 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
    HAMILTON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing on a Friday over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    WINNIPEG is 3-2 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
    WINNIPEG is 3-2 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Saturday, August 11

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    MONTREAL (1 - 6) at OTTAWA (4 - 3) - 8/11/2018, 8:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MONTREAL is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    MONTREAL is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    MONTREAL is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
    MONTREAL is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    MONTREAL is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
    MONTREAL is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
    MONTREAL is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
    MONTREAL is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    OTTAWA is 6-1 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
    OTTAWA is 6-1 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 08-08-2018 at 02:06 AM.

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    CFL

    Week 9


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Thursday, August 9

    Edmonton Eskimos
    Edmonton is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games
    Edmonton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Edmonton's last 9 games
    Edmonton is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
    Edmonton is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Edmonton's last 11 games on the road
    Edmonton is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing British Columbia
    Edmonton is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing British Columbia
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Edmonton's last 9 games when playing British Columbia
    Edmonton is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
    Edmonton is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
    British Columbia Lions
    British Columbia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    British Columbia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of British Columbia's last 9 games
    British Columbia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    British Columbia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
    British Columbia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
    British Columbia is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Edmonton
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of British Columbia's last 9 games when playing Edmonton
    British Columbia is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Edmonton
    British Columbia is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Edmonton


    Friday, August 10

    Hamilton Tiger-Cats
    Hamilton is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games
    Hamilton is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
    Hamilton is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hamilton's last 6 games on the road
    Hamilton is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Winnipeg
    Hamilton is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing Winnipeg
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Hamilton's last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
    Hamilton is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
    Hamilton is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hamilton's last 5 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
    Winnipeg Blue Bombers
    Winnipeg is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    Winnipeg is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Winnipeg's last 8 games
    Winnipeg is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home
    Winnipeg is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 5 games at home
    Winnipeg is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Hamilton
    Winnipeg is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing Hamilton
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing Hamilton
    Winnipeg is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Hamilton
    Winnipeg is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Hamilton
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing at home against Hamilton


    Saturday, August 11

    Montreal Alouettes
    Montreal is 2-16 ATS in its last 18 games
    Montreal is 1-17 SU in its last 18 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Montreal's last 9 games
    Montreal is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
    Montreal is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 5 games on the road
    Montreal is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Ottawa
    Montreal is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Ottawa
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing Ottawa
    Montreal is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
    Ottawa RedBlacks
    Ottawa is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games
    Ottawa is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Ottawa is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
    Ottawa is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Ottawa's last 5 games when playing Montreal


    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 08-08-2018 at 02:07 AM.

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    CFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 9



    Edmonton (5-2) (-3.5, 54) @ BC Lions (2-4)— Eskimos won six of last seven series games; they split last four visits here, winning 35-29 in OT in last visit last October. Last three series games went over the total. Edmonton won its last three games, scoring 26-44-16 points; they’re 2-1 on road, with wins by 21-3 points, and a 20-17 loss in Toronto. Three of their last four games went under. Lions are 2-0 at home, 0-4 on road; they allowed 17-10 points in their two wins, 27+ in their losses- both their home games stayed under the total.

    Hamilton (3-4) @ Winnipeg (4-3) (-6, 58)— Hamilton (-5) beat Winnipeg 31-17 at home June 29; total yardage was 480-280. Road team is 7-3 in last ten series games; Ti-Cats won four of their last five visits to Manitoba. Eight of last ten series games stayed under the total. Hamilton scored 38-31-50 points in its three wins; they scored 20 or less in their losses. Ti-Cats split their four road games. Blue Bombers scored 38+ points in all four of their wins; three of their last four games went over. Winnipeg won two of three at home, losing home opener to Edmonton.

    Montreal (1-6) @ Ottawa (4-3) (-14, 50.5)— Alouettes got pummeled 50-11 in Manziel’s first CFL start last week; Als’ last three losses are by 39-21-17 points, but their only win was on road, 23-17 in Regina. Montreal lost its last six games against RedBlacks, losing four of five trips here, the last two by 20-5 points. Last six series games stayed under the total. Ottawa lost 42-41 last week in Toronto, their first loss this season when scoring 21+ points. RedBlacks’ last three games were decided by total of 11 points. Four of last six Ottawa games stayed under the total.

    Through Week 8: Favorites 15-16; Under 17-13-1
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 08-09-2018 at 11:48 AM.

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