At the Gate - Sunday
July 28, 2018


I don’t think we saw the Travers (G1) winner in yesterday’s Jim Dandy (G2), an oddly run race won by Tenfold who drifted out badly in the stretch under left handed whipping which for a stride or two it looked as if he might dump his jockey Ricardo Santana Jr.

Santana got him straight in time to keep him in front, with Flamewaway a game second after prompting the early pace. Vino Rosso was outrun early and came with a very late run to finish third.

Perhaps Good Magic will jump up in the division in today’s $1 million Haskell Invitational (G1) where he makes his first start since running fourth in the Preakness Stakes (G1).

The Chad Brown trainee was my top pick in both the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness and we will stick with him again today despite the short price.

The feature at Saratoga this afternoon is the $200,000 Shuvee (G3) for fillies and mares going nine furlongs on the main track which drew a field of seven.

It will be interesting to see Wow Cat make her U.S. debut. The Chilean bred is perfect in eight starts and has won four Group 1 races. She makes her first start here off the layoff for trainer Chad Brown who is leading all trainers at the Spa with nine winners from his 30 starters.

Brown also saddles Pacific Wind (7-2) who won the Ruffian (G2) in May and most recently was fourth in the Ogden Phipps (G1).

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package for just $99.95. It gives you a month of Saratoga which is running six days a week and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

Here is the opening race from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

SAR Race 1 Clm $14,000N3L (1:00 ET)

#1 Dream Fever 6-1
#7 Promises Broken 5-2
#6 Summer Punch 3-1
#5 Lou's Chardonnay 7-2

Analysis: Dream Fever dueled for the early lead and weakened in the stretch to finish fifth last out against Alw-1 optional claimers on turf at Indiana Grand. She crossed the ire first in two of her three previous starts, getting DQ'd four back at Aqueduct against $20,000 claimers. She drops back in for a tag here facing non-winners of three and while here numbers are coming up a bit light, her 6-1 morning line looks enticing and she is in good hands with the Cox barn that has been sending out live runners, winning with three of his first six starters.

Promises Broken prompted the early pace and battled on gamely with the jock dropping his stick in the stretch, no match for the winner late in a runner up finish at Churchill Downs for a $20,000 tag. She makes her third start off the layoff here for the Kenneally barn. She was a decent third two back on turf off the bench. She looks tough if she can run back to here last effort.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 1,7 / 1,5,6,7
TRI: 1,7 / 1,5,6,7 / 1,2,5,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

SAR Race 9 The Shuvee G3 (5:40 ET)

#4 Wow Cat 8-5
#5 Ivy Bell 3-1
#7 Farrell 4-1
#2 Verve's Tale 10-1

Analysis: Wow Cat makes her U.S. debut and her first start since December, landing with the Brown barn that is 29% winners with runners coming back off a +180 day layoff. The filly is perfect in eight starts, all in Chile including four Group 1 wins and she has won from 6 1/2 furlongs to 1 3/8 miles. She has worked quickly in the morning sat Belmont Park and has one local drill over the main track here. Lasix is added to the mix here and she looks as if she is going to come back running.

Ivy Bell dueled for the early lead while down along the inside and was no match for Abel Tasman in the stretch in a runner up finish in the Ogden Phipps (G1). She has been best sprinting and her last was her first route try and this will be her first start around two turns. Pedigree wise she should be able to handle the extra ground, by Archarcharch out of a Forest Wildcat mare.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 2,4,5,7
TRI: 4,5 / 2,4,5,7 / 2,4,5,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Monmouth Park:

MTH Race 12 The Haskell Inv. G1 (5:45 ET)

#6 Good Magic 6-5
#4 Core Beliefs 4-1
#5 Bravazo 3-1
#1 Lone Sailor 5-1

Analysis: Good Magic makes his first start since battling with Justify in the Preakness (G1) and paying the price, weakening in the stretch to finish fourth, beaten a length. Two back he stalked the early pace and just held on to the runner up spot in the Kentucky Derby. Both of those races were in the slop and this guy was my top pick in both of those outings. The $1 million Keeneland purchase won the Blue Grass (G2) to stamp his ticket to the Derby and of course won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) last year. He gets a fast track today with a freshening for Brown who is 3% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. He looks primed for a career top effort here.

Core Beliefs was a game winner of the Ohio Derby (G3) last out, edging Lone Sailor by a nose in a hard fought stretch drive. He ran third in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) in his first go against winners, then had a clear lead heading for home in the Peter Pan (G2) but was run down by Blended Citizen. Prat picks up the call for the Eurton barn and this guy still appears as if he may have some upside.

Bravazo raced in each of the Triple Crown races with a runner up in the Preakness his best finish. His lone stakes win came in the Risen Star (G2) in February and then he tossed in a really bad one in the Louisiana Derby (G2). The cut back in distance will suit him but I would need to see more than 3-1 to get excited about this guy for the top spot.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 1-1 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 1,4,5,6
TRI: 4,6 / 1,4,5,6 / 1,3,4,5,6

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Saratoga
R2: #4 Magician’s Vanity 8-1
R2: #1 Lady Love 8-1
R3: #5 Jo Jo’s Candy 10-1
R4: #5 Rotate 8-1
R6: #1 Industrial Logic 8-1
R8: #11 English Minister 8-1
R9: #2 Verve’s Tale 10-1
R10: #12 Spa Jazz 8-1

Good luck today!