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Thread: Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 7/19

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    Default Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 7/19

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, July 19

    Good Luck on day #200 of 2018!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

    — SEC football Media Week ain’t the same without Les Miles.

    — Superstitious much? There are no Gate 13’s in McCarran Airport in Las Vegas.

    — Ole Miss basketball coach Mike White is only 41, but has lived in 14 different states

    — Georgia football coach Kirby Smart was a Finance major in college.

    — Purdue has a QB named Nick Sipe whose uncle is Brian Sipe, the terrific QB for the Browns who also played for the Jacksonville Bulls in the USFL.

    — Last seven years, Ohio St/Northwestern are only two Big 14 football teams that have been plus in turnovers in all seven years.


    **********

    Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….

    13) San Antonio Spurs traded Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green to Toronto for DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl and a protected 2019 1st-round pick.

    Over the last five years, the Raptors went 263-147 in the regular season, only 21-30 in playoff games, so they fired their coach and traded their best player. We’ll see how that works out.

    12) I’m thinking managing a major league team now has to be more difficult than it used to be; back when I was a kid, guys like Sparky Anderson, Earl Weaver, Dick Williams were big names who unquestionably ran their teams- that doesn’t exist anymore.

    Front office/analytics types run the show on most teams now; managers with strong personalities don’t get hired as much or don’t keep their jobs— see Joe Girardi.

    Managers, by the very nature of their jobs, dictate the tone of their teams, but they dictate less and less of their team’s tactics and roster management, but they still have to answer to the press, which can’t be a lot of fun.

    11) On July 17, 1963, Braves-Giants played a game in San Francisco, Spahn vs Marichal, two Hall of Fame pitchers.

    Game was scoreless into the 16th inning with both pitchers going whole way, when Willie Mays ended it with a solo-homer off Spahn. Marichal threw 227 pitches and Spahn threw 201.

    If that happened today, both managers would’ve been fired after the game.

    10) One of the coolest nights I’ve spent in Las Vegas was during this week back in 2015, late on a Wednesday night.

    Diamondbacks game in Phoenix went 14 or 15 innings, ran very late; at same time, live coverage from the BBC or some channel in England had live first round coverage of the British Open on, so you could watch live action on TV’s next to each other, one on Wednesday night, the other Thursday morning. It was oddly fun.

    9) All nine people who made the final table at the World Series of Poker made $1M+; the winner got $8.8M, runner-up got $5M— no wonder he was smiling in the pictures afterwards.

    8) They had another poker tournament that ran Sunday-Tuesday, 27 people entered with a buy-in of $1M. Top 5 cashed, the other 22 had to explain to their wives why they blew $1M to play cards for a couple nights.

    Guy who won took home $10M and he was losing for most of the heads-up period.

    7) Golfer Hideki Matsuyama finished in the top-20 in each of the last seven majors and 11 of the last 14.

    6) From gambling expert Bill Krackomberger, talking about the start of legalized sports betting in New Jersey:

    “…….of the $15.4 million wagered, the casinos/state won just under $3.5 million in 16 days. That is a hold percentage of over 22%. In relation, Nevada’s hold for 2017 was 5.1%.”

    KL Wheat reported in from New Jersey Wednesday:

    “…….went to bet Ricky Fowler at 17-1 on board, went to bet 10 seconds later, it was 12-1.” That was at Monmouth— he got 16-1 on Fowler at Borgata.

    5) Back in 1983, Donald Trump could’ve bought the Dallas Cowboys for $50M but passed; now they’re worth $4.8B. Thats billion, with a B.

    4) Of the eight guys in Home Run Derby this year, only Harper/Freeman are making more than $660,000 this season. MLB needs more established stars to do Home Run Derby.

    3) One really cool thing about the derby this year is that the two finalists both had unusual guys throwing to them. Had to be a ton of pressure on these guys to throw hittable pitches.

    Bruce Harper had his dad throwing to him, which is great- Robinson Cano’s dad threw to him a few years ago, and Kyle Schwarber’s buddy threw to him- the graphic actually said under the guy’s name “Kyle’s friend”

    2) Apparently, Juwan Howard holds an NBA record he had 236 different teammates during his long playing career. Vince Carter could break that record this year if he plays; he’s had 228 different teammates in his career.

    1) Imagine being A’s reliever Blake Treinen Tuesday night; run out of Washington last summer, exiled to Oakland because he was having a bad year (5.73 ERA in 37.2 IP).

    Now he has 24 saves for an Oakland team that is a surprise contender in the AL Wild Card race, and he has been awesome. He comes back to Washington a year after they ran him out of town and he is a freakin’ All-Star. That had to be tremendous.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-19-2018 at 01:01 PM.

  3. #3
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    MLB

    Thursday, July 19



    Top Five OVER Teams:

    1. Reds 51-40-5
    2. Indians 50-41-4
    3. Athletics 47-42-8
    4. Marlins 50-46-2
    5. Pirates 47-44-6


    Top Five UNDER Teams:

    1. Nationals 56-38-2
    2. Tigers 56-39-3
    3. Orioles 54-39-4
    4. Rays 54-40-4
    5. Royals 51-40-4


    Top Five Homer Umpires (based on home win %, min. 6 games behind home plate):

    1. Nick Mahrley (6-0) $647
    2. Mike DiMuro (14-2) $1410
    3. Roberto Ortiz (8-2) $798
    4. David Rackley (11-3) $745
    5. Bill Welke (14-5) $844


    Top Five Roadie Umpires (based on away team win %, min. 6 games behind home plate):

    1. Ben May 12-0
    2. Jim Reynolds 14-5
    3. Dan Iassogna 5-2
    t4. Mike Winters 11-6
    t4. Adam Hamari 11-6


    Top Five Money Starters (based on $100 wager per start):

    1. Luis Severino, NYY (18-2) $1435
    2. Jon Lester, CHC (16-3) $1275
    3. Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS (16-3) $1160
    4. Mike Fiers, DET (11-7) $943
    5. Gerrit Cole, HOU (16-4) $893


    Worst Five Money Starters (based on $100 wager per start):

    278. Tanner Roark, WAS (5-14) $-1263
    277. Kyle Hendricks, CHC (7-12) $-1251
    276. Alex Cobb, BAL (3-14) $-1085
    275. Kevin Gausman, BAL (5-14) $-974
    274. Justin Verlander, HOU (12-9) $-952


    Top Five Money Teams (based on $100 wager per game):

    1. Boston Red Sox (68-30) $2318
    2. Oakland A's (55-42) $1874
    3. Seattle Mariners (58-39) $1589
    4. Atlanta Braves (52-42) $1208
    5. Philadelphia Phillies (53-42) $1140


    Worst Five Money Teams (based on $100 wager per game):

    30. Baltimore Orioles (28-69) $-3716
    29. Kansas City Royals (27-68) $-3033
    28. Chicago White Sox (33-62) $-1813
    27. Washington Nationals (48-48) $-1782
    26. New York Mets (39-55) $1667
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-19-2018 at 01:02 PM.

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    MLB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Thursday, July 19



    National League
    Cardinals (48-46) @ Cubs (55-38)

    Martinez is 3-1, 3.00 in his last four starts; over is 5-1 in his last six starts. Team in his starts: 9-7, 4-3 on road.
    5-inning record: 7-7-2. Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-16

    Hendricks is 1-0, 2.95 in his last three starts; under is 10-4-1 in his last 15. Team in his starts: 7-12, 4-5 at home
    5-inning record: 5-8-6. Allowed run in 1st inning: 10-19

    St Louis lost three of its last four games; they’re 8-7 in road series openers. Five of their last six games went over. Cubs won six of their last eight games; they’re 8-8 in home series openers. Last four Chicago games went over.

    ______________________________

    Teams’ records in first five innings:
    Team (road-home-total)- thru 7/15
    Ariz 24-19-5……22-18-8……..46-37
    Atl 22-20-7…..21-16-8………43-36
    Cubs 18-20-12……20-16-7…….38-36
    Reds 16-29-4……18-24-4….…34-53
    Colo 26-14-12……26-15-5……51-30
    LA 21-17-6…….25-18-11……47-35
    Miami 18-24-5…..20-22-10…….38-46
    Milw 20-22-8…..26-18-4…….46-40
    Mets 19-23-2……17-21-13…..36-42
    Philly 20-19-10…..24-14-7……44-33
    Pitt 18-20-6……25-17-11……..43-37
    StL 23-18-5……21-23-4………44-41
    SD 17-24-9……17-25-6…….34-48
    SF 21-19-10…..17-20-11………38-38
    Wash 21-19-10..…18-21-7………39-40

    Orioles 12-26-10…….14-28-8……26-54
    Boston 26-16-10……27-14-5……..53-30
    W Sox 13-31-4…..…15-26-7…..…28-57
    Indians 20-17-8……32-12-7……52-29
    Det 18-24-8……20-21-10.……38-45
    Astros 22-14-11……28-15-10…….50-28
    KC 15-26-8…….15-25-7…..30-51
    Angels 24-19-7……18-21-8……42-40
    Twins 16-21-8……22-23-7…..38-44
    NYY 25-15-9……27-13-7…….52-27
    A’s 18-24-10……14-21-10……32-45
    Seattle 26-19-7……23-15-10……49-33
    TB 23-19-11……22-15-6……45-33
    Texas 17-26-7…..14-27-6…….31-53
    Toronto 13-25-8……16-23-11……29-48

    %age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total- 7/15)
    Ariz 21-48…….16-49…..…36
    Atl 16-49……16-45………32
    Cubs 9-50……..17-43………26
    Reds 11-49……..11-47………22
    Colo 19-50…….21-46.……40
    LA 13-44……..20-52..…..33
    Miami 12-47……..14-51…….26
    Milw 16-50…..…15-48……..31
    Mets 17-43……..15-51…….32
    Philly 10-49……..15-46…….25
    Pitt 11-44……..16-53……..27
    StL 15-46……..14-48…….29
    SD 13-50……..12-49…….25
    SF 10-48………17-51..…..27
    Wash 18-50……..11-46……..29

    Orioles 15-48……..15-49………29
    Boston 14-51……19-47………32
    White Sox 13-47……14-48…….26
    Clev 13-45…….20-50……..33
    Detroit 15-50……..15-48….…30
    Astros 13-46…..…13-53………26
    KC 14-49..…….12-46…….26
    Angels 14-50…..….12-47…….26
    Twins 12-43………12-51…….23
    NYY 11-49……..18-46………29
    A’s 11-52…..…..11-45…….22
    Seattle 19-49………15-48……..33
    TB 16-53..……14-43……..30
    Texas 9-50…….…10-47……18
    Toronto 9-46………11-49….…20

    Interleague play- 2018
    NL @ AL– 48-45 NL, favorites +$117
    AL @ NL– 53-40 NL, favorites -$976
    Total: 101-85 NL, favorites -$859
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-19-2018 at 01:05 PM.

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    MLB

    Thursday, July 19


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    St. Louis Cardinals
    St. Louis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    St. Louis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games
    St. Louis is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
    St. Louis is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Chi Cubs
    St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs
    St. Louis is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games when playing Chi Cubs
    St. Louis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
    St. Louis is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
    Chicago Cubs
    Chi Cubs is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Chi Cubs is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games
    Chi Cubs is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Chi Cubs is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Chi Cubs's last 15 games at home
    Chi Cubs is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing St. Louis
    Chi Cubs is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games when playing St. Louis
    Chi Cubs is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
    Chi Cubs is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis
    Chi Cubs is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against St. Louis


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-19-2018 at 01:06 PM.

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    MLB
    Dunkel

    Thursday, July 19


    St. Louis @ Chicago Cubs

    Game 951-952
    July 19, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    St. Louis
    (Mrtinez) 13.996
    Chicago Cubs
    (Hendrcks) 17.289
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Chicago Cubs
    by 3 1/2
    11
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Chicago Cubs
    -155
    No Total
    Dunkel Pick:
    Chicago Cubs
    (-155); N/A





    MLB
    Long Sheet

    Thursday, July 19


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ST LOUIS (48 - 46) at CHICAGO CUBS (55 - 38) - 7:05 PM
    CARLOS MARTINEZ (R) vs. KYLE HENDRICKS (R)
    Top Trends for this game.
    ST LOUIS is 48-46 (-9.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
    ST LOUIS is 26-29 (-11.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
    CHICAGO CUBS are 1750-1800 (-264.8 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
    CHICAGO CUBS are 375-308 (-77.6 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997.
    CHICAGO CUBS are 934-838 (-156.4 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
    CHICAGO CUBS are 432-385 (-82.6 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997.
    CHICAGO CUBS are 111-90 (-19.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
    CHICAGO CUBS are 82-69 (-17.6 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
    CHICAGO CUBS are 125-111 (-36.1 Units) against the money line in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1997.
    HENDRICKS is 7-12 (-12.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
    HENDRICKS is 4-12 (-15.5 Units) against the money line after a win this season. (Team's Record)

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ST LOUIS is 5-3 (+2.2 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
    5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.6 Units)

    CARLOS MARTINEZ vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
    MARTINEZ is 4-4 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 4.81 and a WHIP of 1.570.
    His team's record is 9-6 (+3.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 8-5. (+3.0 units)

    KYLE HENDRICKS vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
    HENDRICKS is 3-2 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 3.58 and a WHIP of 1.109.
    His team's record is 8-4 (+4.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-5. (+1.7 units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-19-2018 at 01:06 PM.

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    MLB
    Weather Report

    Thursday, July 19




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