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Thread: CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 6 (Thur., July 19 - Sat., July 21)

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    Default CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 6 (Thur., July 19 - Sat., July 21)

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, July 19 - Saturday, July 21

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    CFL Betting Recap - Week 5
    Joe Williams

    League Betting Notes

    -- Favorites went 2-1 SU in Week 5
    -- Underdogs went 2-1 ATS in Week 5
    -- Home teams posted a 2-1 SU record in Week 5
    -- Road teams posted a 2-1 ATS record in Week 5
    -- The 'Under' went 3-0 in Week 5

    Analysis

    Calgary (4-0) opened the week with an emphatic 27-3 victory at Ottawa (2-2), as their defense was on full display again. The Stampeders are mostly known for their offense by casual fans, and they have scored at least 24 points in each of their four outings. However, they have yielded just 9.5 points per game (PPG) through four games, by far the best defense in the CFL. They moved to 4-0 ATS and the 'under' is a perfect 4-0, too.

    The RedBlacks are 0-2 SU/ATS in two meetings with the Stamps, and 2-0 SU/ATS against everyone else. The good news is they will now have to face Calgary for the remainder of the regular season. Ottawa is also on a 3-0 'under' run.

    Speaking of 3-0, the 'under' cashed in all three meetings this week, and is 6-1 over the past two weekend in the CFL.

    Edmonton (3-2) snuck by Toronto (1-3) in a defensive battle in Northern Alberta, 16-15. The line was set at 54, but the 'under' came in by a mile. After opening with the 'over' in each of their first three games, the 'under' is 2-0 in the past two outings for Edmonton, both against Toronto. The Esks are also a dismal 1-4 ATS through five outings. They're off in Week 6.

    The Argos have covered back-to-back outings after opening 0-2 SU/ATS. That's not where bettors are making money on the Argos, however. Toronto has averaged just 15.3 PPG through four outings, and the 'under' has hit in all of their contests to date.

    Winnipeg (2-3) has alternated losses and wins through each of their first five outings. It didn't look like the outcome would be a loss in their second end of a home-and-home with the BC Lions (2-2), as they led in Vancouver by a 17-0 score at halftime. It was a defensive battle through the end of the third quarter, with the Blue Bombers leading 17-7. Then, the Lions struck hard. With two minutes remaining, the Lions found the end zone to tie the game at 17-17. It appeared overtime might be happening, but the Lions struck for a Ty Long field goal with :11 remaining in regulation to turn the tables on the Bombers after an ugly 41-19 beatdown last weekend.

    Team Betting Notes and A Look Ahead


    -- A pair of .500 clubs meet in the Hammer when Saskatchewan (2-2) and Hamilton (2-2) square off. The Roughriders have posted a 5-2 ATS record in their past seven following a bye week. The Tiger-Cats are 6-0 ATS in their past six following a straight-up loss, and they're 7-2 ATS in the past nine overall. However, the Ti-Cats are also 4-10-2 ATS in the past 16 at home, while going 1-5 ATS in their past six after a bye.

    -- Another battle of 2-2 clubs takes place when the Lions and RedBlacks battle each other in Canada's capital city. The Lions won and covered last week, but they're still just 3-8 ATS in the past 11 overall. They're also back on the road, and they're 1-7 ATS in their past eight away from home. The RedBlacks have rebounded nicely, going 5-0 ATS in their past five following a straight-up loss, and 8-2 ATS in the past 10 after a non-cover. While the 'over' is 5-2 in the past seven for BC, the 'under' is 15-5-1 in the past 21 for Ottawa, and 5-2-1 in the past eight at home. The 'under' is also 3-0-1 in the past four meetings in this series.

    -- Two sub-.500 teams desperate for a win battle in Hogtown. The Blue Bombers had a rare non-cover last week on the road, as they're still 16-5 ATS in the past 21 on the road, and 17-8 ATS in the past 25 overall. They're also 10-1 ATS in the past 11 games following a non-cover. The Argos are 5-2 ATS in the past seven games overall, and that will be put to the test as they're 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings with the Bombers. The 'over' is also 4-0 in the past four meetings, and 5-1 in the past six in Toronto.

    -- Montreal (1-3) is in search of a much-needed win, but it might not happen against the red-hot Stamps. Montreal has covered just five of their past 21 games overall, including 1-7 ATS in the past eight road outings. The Stamps have covered 20 of their past 28 at home. The 'under' is 5-0 in Montreal's past five, and 9-3 in their past 12 in the month of July. In addition, the under is 12-2 in the past 14 games on a Saturday. For Calgary, the under is 4-1 in their past five at home, and 19-7 in the past 26 games played on a Saturday.

    -- The Alouettes have covered six of their past seven meetings with the Stamps, but they're just 2-6 ATS in the past eight trips to Calgary. The 'under' is also 6-2 in the past eight battles in this series.

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    CFL Betting Notes - Week 6
    David Schwab

    Week 5 Betting Recap

    With only three games on the CFL slate last week, the UNDER on the total line was the best bet with the books given that all three contests turned into low-scoring affairs.

    Calgary remained perfect on the year both straight-up and against the spread with Thursday’s 27-3 victory against Ottawa as a three-point road favorite.

    On Friday night, Edmonton squeaked past Toronto 16-15 as a 9 ˝-point favorite at home and on Saturday the British Columbia Lions knocked off Winnipeg 20-17 as a 4 ˝-point home underdog.

    Thursday, July 19

    Saskatchewan Roughriders (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)

    Point-spread: Hamilton -11
    Total: 51 ˝

    Game Overview

    This will be the second meeting in an extended home-and-home series after Saskatchewan beat the Tiger-Cats 18-13 on July 5 as a six-point home underdog. The total stayed UNDER 51 points in that victory and it has stayed UNDER in three of the Roughriders’ first four games. Brandon Bridge and David Watford were ineffective throwing the ball against Hamilton with a combined 148 yards passing. However, the Roughriders did rack-up 150 yards rushing on 23 carries.

    Hamilton dropped to 2-2 (SU and ATS) with that loss after posting back-to-back victories against Edmonton on the road and Winnipeg at home in its previous two games. The total has stayed UNDER in three of the Tiger-Cats first four outings. Jeremiah Masoli was able to move the ball through the air against Saskatchewan in that first meeting with 333 total passing yards, but he could not get his team into the end zone. He is currently second in the CFL in passing with 1,378 yards through his first four games.

    Betting Trends

    -- Saskatchewan has won four of the last five meetings both SU and ATS with the total staying UNDER in four of the last five meetings in Hamilton.


    Friday, July 20

    British Columbia Lions (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) at Ottawa RedBlacks (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)

    Point-spread: Ottawa -6 ˝
    Total: 53 ˝

    Game Overview

    The Lions are coming off a split both SU and ATS in a recent home-and-home series against Winnipeg as part of their 2-2 record both ways on the year. The total stayed UNDER 55 points in Saturday’s upset against the Blue Bombers after going OVER the closing line in two of BC’s first three games. Travis Lulay got the call at quarterback in Week 5 and he responded with 326 yards passing with one touchdown throw against one interception. He completed at least one pass to eight different players.

    Ottawa’s two losses this season have come against Calgary on the road and at home. It has also beaten Saskatchewan at home and Montreal on the road closing as a favorite. The total has stayed UNDER in each of its last three contests with a scoring average of 15.0 points per game. Trevor Harris looked awful in his two losses to the Stampeders, but he still has 915 yards passing and five touchdown throws in his first four games.

    Betting Trends

    -- Ottawa has a 4-2 edge both SU and ATS in its last six games against BC and the total has stayed UNDER in four of its last six home games against the Lions.


    Saturday, July 21

    Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) at Toronto Argonauts (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS)

    Point-spread: PICK
    Total: 50 ˝

    Game Overview

    The Blue Bombers have scored at least 30 points in three of their first five games this season with the total easily going OVER in each of those contests. They opened the season with a tough 33-30 loss to Edmonton as seven-point home underdogs before waxing BC 41-19 at home in Week 4 as 6 ˝-point favorites. Matt Nichols is back under center for Winnipeg and he threw for 214 yards with zero touchdowns and three interceptions in last week’s less than stellar performance.

    Toronto lost the backend of its home-and-home series against Edmonton and it has now failed to score more than 20 points in each of its first four games. The total has stayed UNDER in all four contests. James Franklin got the start at quarterback against the Eskimos for an injured Ricky Ray. After throwing for 217 yards with one touchdown pass and one interception in Game 1 at home, he completed 26-of-36 passing attempts for 296 yards against Edmonton in last week’s loss on the road.

    Betting Trends

    -- The Argonauts have won 11 of the last 16 meetings against Winnipeg SU, but they have failed to cover in four of their last five matchups against the Blue Bombers. The total has gone OVER in four of those last five meetings.

    Montreal Alouettes (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) at Calgary Stampeders (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS)
    Point-Spread: Calgary OFF
    Total: OFF

    Game Overview

    Montreal has already established itself as the worst team in the CFL this season on each side of the ball after winning just three games SU all last season. The Alouettes have complemented an offense that is averaging 15.3 PPG with a defense that is giving up 30.8 points a game. They are coming off a bye last week after losing to Ottawa at home 28-18 on July 6 as 7 ˝-point home underdogs. The total has stayed UNDER in three of Montreal’s first four games.

    At the opposite end of the spectrum in the CFL, Calgary is off to a perfect 4-0 start (SU and ATS) while winning each game by 10 points or more. The total has stayed UNDER in all four games behind a defense that has not allowed more than 14 points in any of those wins. The big concern for Saturday’s matchup as far as the actual betting spread is the playing status of quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell. He left last Thursday’s victory at Ottawa with an injured knee.

    Betting Trends

    -- Calgary has won its last five home games against Montreal SU, but it has failed to cover in six of the last seven meetings overall. The total has stayed UNDER in six of the last eight games between the two.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-21-2018 at 11:01 AM.

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    CFL
    Dunkel

    Week 6


    Thursday, July 19

    Saskatchewan @ Hamilton

    Game 371-372
    July 19, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Saskatchewan
    108.738
    Hamilton
    116.896
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Hamilton
    by 8
    55
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Hamilton
    by 10 1/2
    51
    Dunkel Pick:
    Saskatchewan
    (+10 1/2); Over



    Friday, July 20

    BC Lions @ Ottawa

    Game 373-374
    July 20, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    BC Lions
    107.536
    Ottawa
    111.856
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Ottawa
    by 4 1/2
    56
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Ottawa
    by 7
    52 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    BC Lions
    (+7); Over



    Saturday, July 21

    Winnipeg @ Toronto

    Game 375-376
    July 21, 2018 @ 4:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Winnipeg
    114.696
    Toronto
    110.233
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Winnipeg
    by 4 1/2
    39
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Winnipeg
    Pick
    51 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Winnipeg
    Under

    Montreal @ Calgary


    Game 377-378
    July 21, 2018 @ 9:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Montreal
    98.608
    Calgary
    126.718
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Calgary
    by 28
    38
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Calgary
    No Line
    N/A
    Dunkel Pick:
    Calgary
    N/A
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-21-2018 at 11:03 AM.

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    CFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 6


    Thursday, July 19

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    SASKATCHEWAN (2 - 2) at HAMILTON (2 - 2) - 7/19/2018, 7:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    SASKATCHEWAN is 136-99 ATS (+27.1 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
    SASKATCHEWAN is 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) in July games since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SASKATCHEWAN is 4-1 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
    SASKATCHEWAN is 4-1 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Friday, July 20

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    BRITISH COLUMBIA (2 - 2) at OTTAWA (2 - 2) - 7/20/2018, 7:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    BRITISH COLUMBIA is 57-33 ATS (+20.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
    BRITISH COLUMBIA is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    OTTAWA is 2-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
    OTTAWA is 2-2 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Saturday, July 21

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    WINNIPEG (2 - 3) at TORONTO (1 - 3) - 7/21/2018, 4:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    WINNIPEG is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    WINNIPEG is 4-0 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    WINNIPEG is 3-1 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    MONTREAL (1 - 3) at CALGARY (4 - 0) - 7/21/2018, 9:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MONTREAL is 3-1 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
    CALGARY is 2-2 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 6



    Saskatchewan (2-2) @ Hamilton (2-2) (-10.5, 51)
    — Roughriders nipped Hamilton 18-13 at home two weeks ago, scoring winning TD with 1:50 left. TiCats didn’t score TD in game- total yardage was 429-298, Hamilton. Saskatchewan had last week off; they split first four games (under 3-1), losing 40-17 at Ottawa in their only road game. Hamilton also had last week off; they split first four games (under 3-1), beating Ottawa 38-21 in their only home game. Riders won last four series games, but lost three of last four series games in Ontario. Under is 7-2 in last nine series games.

    BC Lions (2-2) @ Ottawa (2-2) (-7, 53)
    — Teams split eight series meetings, going 2-2 in each city; over is 2-0-1 in last three series games. Home side won all four BC games this season; Lions lost 41-19/41-22 in visits to Winnipeg, Edmonton- both those games went over the total. Lions covered only one of last eight road games. BC allowed 17-10 points in their wins. RedBlacks split their first four games, losing twice to unbeaten Calgary, winning other two games by 23-10 points. Ottawa’s last three games stayed under total- under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games overall.

    Winnipeg (2-3) (-2, 52.5) @ Toronto (1-3)
    — Blue Bombers are only team not to have bye yet; they lost four of last five visits to Toronto- home side won seven of last nine series games, with Winnipeg covering last four. Over is 7-2 in last nine series games. Bombers are 2-1 when they score 30+ points, 0-2 when they score less than 30, losing by 14-3 points. Over is 3-2 in their games, 1-2 on road. Toronto scored 15.3 ppg in losing three of its first four games, all of which stayed under the total. Argonauts’ last two games (both vs Edmonton) were decided by total of four points.

    Montreal (1-3) @ Calgary (4-0) (NL)
    — Stampeders’ QB Mitchell is a ?? here; rookie Arbuckle gets nod if Mitchell can’t go. Home side won last nine series games; Alouettes lost last five visits to Calgary by 48-14-3-21-11 points- they lost 59-11 here LY. Under is 6-2 in last eight series games, 3-2 in last five here. Montreal scored 15.3 ppg in their 1-3 start; they had LW off. Alouettes won in Regina, lost 22-10 in BC; all four of their games stayed under the total. Stamps won/covered all four of their games, with 24-14 the closest win. Calgary beat Hamilton by 14, Ottawa by 10 in their two home games; all four of their games stayed under.

    Through Week 5: Favorites 10-9; Under 13-6

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    CFL

    Week 6


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Thursday, July 19

    Saskatchewan Roughriders
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Saskatchewan's last 9 games
    Saskatchewan is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Saskatchewan's last 7 games on the road
    Saskatchewan is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Hamilton
    Saskatchewan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Hamilton
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Saskatchewan's last 9 games when playing Hamilton
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
    Hamilton Tiger-Cats
    Hamilton is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
    Hamilton is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hamilton's last 5 games
    Hamilton is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Hamilton is 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 games at home
    Hamilton is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hamilton's last 6 games at home
    Hamilton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan
    Hamilton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Hamilton's last 9 games when playing Saskatchewan
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hamilton's last 5 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan


    Friday, July 20

    British Columbia Lions
    British Columbia is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games
    British Columbia is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of British Columbia's last 7 games
    British Columbia is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
    British Columbia is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    British Columbia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Ottawa
    British Columbia is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing Ottawa
    British Columbia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Ottawa
    British Columbia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of British Columbia's last 6 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
    Ottawa RedBlacks
    Ottawa is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games
    Ottawa is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Ottawa is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games at home
    Ottawa is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing British Columbia
    Ottawa is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing British Columbia
    Ottawa is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games when playing British Columbia
    Ottawa is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against British Columbia
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games when playing at home against British Columbia


    Saturday, July 21

    Winnipeg Blue Bombers
    Winnipeg is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games
    Winnipeg is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games
    Winnipeg is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
    Winnipeg is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 14 of Winnipeg's last 19 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games on the road
    Winnipeg is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
    Winnipeg is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing Toronto
    Winnipeg is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    Toronto Argonauts
    Toronto is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games
    Toronto is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games at home
    Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games at home
    Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
    Toronto is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing Winnipeg
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
    Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing at home against Winnipeg


    Montreal Alouettes
    Montreal is 1-14 ATS in its last 15 games
    Montreal is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 6 games
    Montreal is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
    Montreal is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games on the road
    Montreal is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Calgary
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Montreal's last 8 games when playing Calgary
    Montreal is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Calgary
    Montreal is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Calgary
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing on the road against Calgary
    Calgary Stampeders
    Calgary is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Calgary is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Calgary's last 5 games
    Calgary is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games at home
    Calgary is 22-2 SU in its last 24 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games at home
    Calgary is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Montreal
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Calgary's last 8 games when playing Montreal
    Calgary is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Montreal
    Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Montreal
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing at home against Montreal


    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-21-2018 at 11:06 AM.

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