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Thread: Tuesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 7/17

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    Default Tuesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 7/17

    Trends and Indexes

    Tuesday, July 17

    Good Luck on day #198 of 2018!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

    — Best part of the All-Star Game will be seeing Nick Markakis getting introduced; 2,171 hits, 1,020 runs scored, but his very first All-Star Game.

    — Phillies lead the NL East, despite being 7-11 against Marlins/Mets.

    — They drew 38,071 fans in Washington Sunday for the Futures game.

    — Each NFL team cashed in $255M in revenue sharing LY, up 4.9% from 2016.

    — Suns’ Dragan Bender played 110:00 in summer league, took no foul shots. Not good.

    — Umpire Ben May has worked 12 games behind plate this year; road team won all 12.


    **********

    Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Some of my favorite (non-sports) movies:

    1) Rounders— Movie about a law student/poker player; this movie is credited with helping the poker boom in the late 90’s.

    2) Dave— Kevin Kline is hired to “stand-in” for the President because he looks just like him, but then the President has a stroke, and Kline has a new job.

    3) The Bodyguard— Kevin Costner is a former Secret Service agent hired to protect a famous singer, who has a contract out on her.

    4) Last Vegas— Four senior citizens who are lifelong friends head to Las Vegas for a bachelor party; their 70-year old friend is marrying a 30-year old. Morgan Freeman wins $87K playing blackjack, because, doesn’t everyone win in Vegas?

    5) Begin Again— Down and out music producer discovers a talented young singer; together they produce an album, using New York City as the background.

    6) Good Will Hunting— Robin Williams is a counselor who tries to help a young delinquent (who is also a Math genius) find his way.

    7) The Verdict— Paul Newman is a down-on-his-luck lawyer who has a chance to win a big case and rehabilitate his career.

    There is a scene in this movie that would never fly today; Newman’s character has a girlfriend in the movie- turns out she is a double-agent, working for the opposing lawyer to gain intel on the big case.

    When Newman finds out, he meets the girlfriend in the lounge of a bar and decks her with one punch. Ouch.

    8) Leap of Faith— Steve Martin runs amok as a traveling preacher; Debra Winger is his partner, Liam Neeson is the local sheriff trying to shut his act down. Meat Loaf is part of the music group that travels with the preacher.

    9) Let It Ride— Richard Dreyfuss is a degenerate gambler who has one big day at the racetrack.

    10) This Is Where I Leave You— After their father dies, four grown siblings return to their childhood home and live under the same roof together for a week.

    11) Lincoln Lawyer— Matthew McConaughey plays a lawyer whose office is the back seat of his Lincoln Continental.

    12) Prince of Tides— Nick Nolte is a high school football coach from South Carolina who travels to New York and falls for his sister’s therapist (Barbra Streisand).

    13) One More Time— Christopher Walken is a past-his-prime lounge singer trying for one last comeback.

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    89th MLB All-Star Game preview: Picks, betting odds and analysis

    Tuesday marks the 89th edition of the All-Star Game between the American and National Leagues – and you won't find a more even match in sports than these two sides over the first 88 midsummer classics. The AL and NL enter this year's game in Washington having each won 43 games against the other, with a pair of ties. But it's the Junior Circuit that has a slight advantage against its National League counterpart, going in as a -130 favorite.

    QUICK-HITTER

    Early scoring has been a fixture of recent All-Star editions, with one team producing a first-inning run in four of the last six games. And while last year's game didn't feature any first-inning scoring – or much offense at all for that matter – fans and bettors alike should expect plenty of early fireworks even with two elite pitchers in Chris Sale (American League) and Max Scherzer (National League) toeing the rubber.

    These lineups are stacked – and with home-run total headed for yet another all-time league high, neither starter can afford to be anything but perfect. Look for someone to get on the board in the opening frame.

    PREDICTION: A run in the first inning: Yes (+115)

    4 1/2 INNINGS BET

    The majority of scoring in an All-Star Game seems to come in the opening 4 1/2 innings, as the armies of elite bullpen arms take over in the later stages. But there seems to be plenty of run production prior to this, with five of the previous seven editions of the All-Star Game producing at least four total runs. With the majority of All-Star lineups allowing the starters to bat twice, pitchers are forced into two encounters with the best hitters in the game – and that means fireworks.

    With the 4 1/2-inning total sitting at 3.5, we recommend taking the over; last year's incredible pitchers' duel aside, the early innings of the All-Star game have traditionally been more wide-open affairs.

    PREDICTION: Over 3.5 runs through 4 1/2 innings (-110)

    TEAM/PLAYER BET

    You won't find a better collection of players on one team than the nine-man roster that the American League will roll out Tuesday night. Four of the top five players in WAR among non-pitchers are in the AL's starting lineup, including Mike Trout (6.8), Jose Ramirez (6.6) and Mookie Betts (6.3), who rank first, second and third, respectively. Oh, and let's not forget professional baseball masher Aaron Judge of the Yankees, and possibly-soon-to-be-teammate Manny Machado.

    The AL also employs the league leader in hits (Jose Altuve, 129), making it one of the most dangerous lineups in recent history. Look for the AL to finish over on its team hit total, even with the NL boasting an impressive pitching corps.

    PREDICTION: AL over 7.5 hits (-135)

    FULL-GAME SIDE

    Forget the history of how these two teams have matched up. There is only one factor to consider, and that's how the lineups measure up against the pitching staffs. And as mentioned earlier, that American League lineup is a sight to behold. No offense to the NL, but Javy Baez, Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis don't quite measure up to Trout, Ramirez or Altuve – and if/when the AL gets out to an early start, the bullpen should have little trouble protecting the advantage.

    A lot can happen in one game of baseball, but the AL is built to win – and should, rather comfortably.

    PREDICTION: American League -1.5 (+170)

    FULL-GAME TOTAL

    As much as we harp on how bettors should expect some early run-scoring, it can't be stressed enough that late-game offense has traditionally been hard to find. There have been just six total runs scored in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings of the last seven All-Star Games – and four of them came in the 2015 edition alone. In other words, don't expect either team to catch fire in the late innings at National Park.

    You're risking a push with a total of 7, so buy that extra half-point and take the under. Unlike a regular-season game, you likely won't have to sweat the late innings in this one.

    PREDICTION: Under 7.5 (-140)

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    MLB
    Dunkel

    Tuesday, July 17



    National League @ American League

    Game 945-946
    July 17, 2018 @ 8:15 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    National League
    14.815
    American League
    16.499
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    American League
    by 1 1/2
    10
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    American League
    -125
    7
    Dunkel Pick:
    American League
    (-125); Over

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    All-Star Game Betting: American League vs. National League
    Phil Simon

    The glorified exhibition that is the MLB All-Star Game could take a turn for the better this season with a collection of young talent on display. The Midsummer Classic is always difficult to handicap given the continuous roster moves, pitchers throwing maybe one inning at most and the overall motivation of the players involved. But it is a spectacle and all eyes will be on Nationals Park at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, July 17.

    The American League has gotten the better of the action lately winning the last five matchups and 12 of previous 15 games. However, over the history of the event the slate is even at 43 wins apiece with a pair of ties. The AL has arguably the better roster and is a -131 favorite to win its sixth consecutive game.

    American League vs. National League
    Date and Time:
    Tuesday, July 17, 2018, 8 p.m. ET
    Location: Nationals Park, Washington, DC
    MLB Odds: AL -131, NL +118, O/U 7
    TV Coverage: FOX

    The 89th edition of the Midsummer Classic has a twist that bettors should be aware of. Though the game is hosted by the Washington Nationals, the NL will play as the visiting team since each of the previous three contests were played in a NL park. It doesn’t seem like much, but considering how close a majority of the previous games have been the last at-bat could prove meaningful. And it might be worth it to drop a wager on the NL as the senior circuit looks to reverse a trend that’s seen them lose 17 of the last 21 games.

    Let’s face it, the entire event is a crapshoot. It’s up to NL manager Dave Roberts and his AL counterpart A.J. Hinch to get as many players in the game as possible while not overdoing it. The starters will play a few innings at most with maybe a couple of at-bats. Typically the game is dominated on the hill with pitchers cutting loose for an inning. The total opened at 7 and the teams played over that number just three times in the last 10 games.

    For the second straight year will get a pitching matchup of Chris Sale against Max Scherzer and both were terrific last season. After two innings at most they’ll be replaced and the other hurlers will get a chance. It’s always difficult for hitters when facing a pitcher just one time and being in the opposite league means you see that thrower even less. Advantage pitcher.

    And that’s why the run totals have been low. And keep in mind that every team must have a representative at the game, so players like Jose Abreu of the White Sox, Joe Jimenez of the Tigers and Jose Berrios of the Twins are on the AL roster over more deserving players.

    Simply looking at the numbers, the AL starters appear to have an advantage. They have the hitting of Jose Altuve and Mookie Betts, and the power from Mike Trout, Manny Machado, Jose Ramirez, J.D. Martinez and Aaron Judge. However, there is a considerable dropoff in talent on the bench and the NL has a more balanced roster, including reserves and bullpen. That makes me believe the NLers are worth taking at positive money.

    American League vs. National League Picks

    We don’t know how games are going to turn out and this one is even more difficult to handicap. With the squads no longer playing for home field advantage in the World Series, the only thing left is pride. And for most it’s all about the experience of playing in the All-Star Game. The AL was hurt more by injury replacements and has a few more that were given the opportunity because their team needed representation. The starting lineup, however, is deadly and should plate a few runs.

    Once the game gets turned over to reserves, the NL has the more balanced roster and will make a charge in the middle innings. And outside of a few gifted arms on each side, the pitchers are hittable. I like the chance of seeing runs scored and the over has plenty of value with rosters stocked with mashers. The senior circuit will do enough both on the mound and at the dish to end the drought and get a victory.

    American League vs. National League Pick: NL +118 and the Over
    American League vs. National League Score Prediction: NL 6, AL 4

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    NATIONAL LEAGUE STARTERS
    PLAYER SELECTION VOTES


    Willson Contreras
    CHC C First 2,172,682


    Freddie Freeman
    ATL 1B Third 4,039,219


    Javier Baez
    CHC 2B First 2,757,401


    Brandon Crawford
    SF SS Second 3,212,103


    Nolan Arenado
    COL 3B Fourth 3,261,425


    Nick Markakis
    ATL RF First 3,556,469


    Matt Kemp
    LAD LF Third 2,930,353


    Bryce Harper
    WAS RF Sixth 2,335,733

    NATIONAL LEAGUE RESERVES
    PLAYER SELECTION



    Buster Posey
    SF C Sixth (injured)



    J.T. Realmuto
    MIA C First



    Joey Votto
    CIN 1B Sixth



    Paul Goldschmidt
    ARI 1B Sixth



    Scooter Gennett
    CIN 2B First



    Ozzie Albies
    ATL 2B First



    Trevor Story
    COL SS First



    Eugenio Suarez
    CIN 3B First



    Lorenzo Cain
    MIL CF Second



    Christian Yelich
    MIL LF First



    Charlie Blackmon
    COL CF Third



    Yadier Molina
    STL C Ninth (injury replacement for Posey)



    Jesus Aguilar
    MIL 1B First (Final Vote winner)


    NATIONAL LEAGUE PITCHERS
    PLAYER SELECTION



    Max Scherzer
    WAS SP Sixth



    Jacob deGrom
    NYM SP Second



    Jon Lester
    CHC SP Fifth (unavailable)



    Aaron Nola
    PHI SP First



    Patrick Corbin
    ARI SP Second



    Mike Foltynewicz
    ATL SP First



    Miles Mikolas
    STL SP First (unavailable)



    Josh Hader
    MIL RP First



    Kenley Jansen
    LAD RP Third



    Sean Doolittle
    WAS RP Second (injured)



    Brad Hand
    SD RP Second



    Felipe Vazquez
    PIT RP First



    Zack Greinke
    ARI SP Fifth (Replacement for Lester)



    Jeremy Jeffress
    MIL RP First (Replacement for Doolittle)

    AMERICAN LEAGUE STARTERS
    PLAYER SELECTION VOTES


    Wilson Ramos
    TB C Second 2,359,726


    Jose Abreu
    CHW 1B Second 1,829,598


    Jose Altuve
    HOU 2B Sixth 4,849,630


    Manny Machado
    BAL SS Fourth 1,740,645


    Jose Ramirez
    CLE 3B Second 2,521,120


    Mookie Betts
    BOS RF Third 4,286,994


    Mike Trout
    LAA CF Seventh 3,682,164


    Aaron Judge
    NYY RF Second 2,766,661


    J.D. Martinez
    BOS DH Second 3,035,619

    AMERICAN LEAGUE RESERVES
    PLAYER SELECTION



    Salvador Perez
    KC C Sixth



    Mitch Moreland
    BOS 1B First



    Gleyber Torres
    NYY 2B First (injured)



    Francisco Lindor
    CLE SS Third



    Alex Bregman
    HOU 3B First



    Michael Brantley
    CLE LF Third



    George Springer
    HOU RF Second



    Mitch Haniger
    SEA RF First



    Shin-Soo Choo
    TEX DH First



    Nelson Cruz
    SEA DH Sixth



    Jed Lowrie
    OAK 2B First (injury replacement for Torres)



    Jean Segura
    SEA SS Second (Final Vote winner)



    Yan Gomes
    CLE C First (injury replacement for Ramos)


    AMERICAN LEAGUE PITCHERS
    PLAYER SELECTION



    Justin Verlander
    HOU SP Seventh (unavailable)



    Corey Kluber
    CLE SP Third (unavailable)



    Chris Sale
    BOS SP Seventh



    Luis Severino
    NYY SP Second



    Gerrit Cole
    HOU SP Second



    Jose Berrios
    MIN SP First



    J.A. Happ
    TOR SP First



    Trevor Bauer
    CLE SP First (Replacement for Verlander)



    Edwin Diaz
    SEA RP First



    Joe Jimenez
    DET RP First



    Craig Kimbrel
    BOS RP Seventh



    Aroldis Chapman
    NYY RP Fifth (unavailable)



    Blake Treinen
    OAK RP First



    Charlie Morton
    HOU SP First (Replacement for Chapman)



    Blake Snell
    TB SP First (Replacement for Kluber)
    Common sense is not so common.
    “You can have everything you want in life if you help enough other people get what they want out of life.” Zig Ziglar

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    American League Lineup

    Hinch's AL lineup will be:
    Player, Club Bats Pos. Statistics
    Mookie Betts, BOS R RF .359, 23 HR, 51 RBI, 25 2B, 79 R, .691 SLG
    Jose Altuve, HOU R 2B .332, 9 HR, 44 RBI, 23 2B, 63 R, 14 SB
    Mike Trout, LAA R CF .310, 25 HR, 50 RBI, 71 R, .454 OBP, .606 SLG
    J.D. Martinez, BOS R DH .328, 29 HR, 80 RBI, 23 2B, 72 R, .644 SLG
    José Ramírez, CLE S 3B .302, 29 HR, 70 RBI, 26 2B, 68 R, .628 SLG
    Aaron Judge, NYY R LF .276, 25 HR, 60 RBI, 19 2B, 66 R, .544 SLG
    Manny Machado, BAL R SS .315, 24 HR, 65 RBI, 21 2B, 48 R, .575 SLG
    José Abreu, CWS R 1B .311, 13 HR, 52 RBI, 27 2B, 44 R, .441 SLG
    Salvador Perez, KC R C .221, 13 HR, 41 RBI, 11 2B, 27 R, .394 SLG

    Hinch has selected left-hander Chris Sale of the Boston Red Sox as the AL's starting pitcher.

    Roberts' NL lineup will be:
    Player, Club Bats Pos. Statistics
    Javier Báez, CHI R 2B .292, 19 HR, 72 RBI, 18 SB, 25 2B, .566 SLG
    Nolan Arenado, COL R 3B .312, 23 HR, 68 RBI, 21 2B, 63 R, .586 SLG
    Paul Goldschmidt, ARI R DH .281, 21 HR, 52 RBI, 61 R, 19 2B, .534 SLG
    Freddie Freeman, ATL L 1B .315, 16 HR, 61 RBI, 25 2B, .405 OBP, .533 SLG
    Matt Kemp, LAD R LF .310, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 42 R, 18 2B, .522 SLG
    Bryce Harper, WSH L CF .214, 23 HR, 54 RBI, 57 R, .365 OBP, .468 SLG
    Nick Markakis, ATL L RF .323, 10 HR, 61 RBI, 29 2B, 55 R, .389 OBP
    Brandon Crawford, SF L SS .292, 10 HR, 39 RBI, 22 2B, 42 R, .363 OBP
    Willson Contreras, CHI R C .279, 7 HR, 34 RBI, 33 R, 19 2B, .449 SLG

    Roberts has chosen Washington Nationals right-hander Max Scherzer as the NL's starting pitcher.
    Common sense is not so common.
    “You can have everything you want in life if you help enough other people get what they want out of life.” Zig Ziglar

    Sports Matchups



    Sagarin NCAAB Rankings

    Cerca Trova
    “Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.”
    ― Dr. Seuss


    “a soft answer turns away wrath” (Proverbs 15:1)


    We make a living by what we get, but we make a life by what we give.


    E-mail: BettorsChat@comcast.net


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    These are the best - and worst - MLB bets at the All-Star Break
    Maddy Palmer


    The 2018 MLB schedule has hit the All-Star break, making it the perfect time to check in on the best – and worst – bets on the diamond so far this summer.

    If you’ve been betting on baseball since April, the annual Mid-Summer Classic is a chance to catch your breath and reflect on bets won and lost over the past three and a half months. And when it comes to “bets won”, no team has returned more profits in the first half of the slate than the Boston Red Sox.

    The BoSox rolled into the break with a bang, winning 12 of their final 13 games to improve to 68-30 on the year. That MLB-best record has translated into +23.18 units for Boston faithful, meaning that if you wagered $100 on every Red Sox game in 2018, you’d be up $2,318. And all of this despite being one of the most public teams in the bigs and the books charging hefty juice to bet on Boston, which is also a +370 favorite to win the World Series this fall.

    The worst bet in baseball so far this season goes to the Baltimore Orioles, who unlike their AL East rivals, have burned bankrolls to the tune of -37.16 units. Yuck. Baltimore backs into the break with a 28-69 record and ranks near-to-last in runs scored and run allowed, posting the second-worst run differential in the majors. The team’s top talent - Manny Machado – is on the trade block, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the O’s go full-on “fire sale” before the deadline.

    For bettors banking on high-scoring baseball, no team has topped the MLB totals more than the Cincinnati Reds, who hit the midway mark with a 51-40-5 Over/Under count – playing Over 56 percent of the time. The Reds went Over the number in eight straight games before the hiatus and are 11-2 Over/Under in July, thanks to the perfect storm of a big-hitting offense – plating 4.8 runs per game – and a craptacular pitching staff – allowing an average of 4.7 runs against. Add it all up, and it makes for some busy score keeping.

    On the flip side of the MLB total sits the Washington Nationals, who register as the best Under play at the break with a 38-56-2 Over/Under record – staying below the number in 67 percent of their games so far. The Nats’ pitching staff, while stumbling a bit, is still very solid and an underperforming offense has failed to meet the nightly expectations, making Washington’s contests some of the most uneventful of the year in terms of runs scored.

    And for those of you who have been cashing in on the runline, the Tampa Bay Rays have likely been your weapon of choice in 2018. The Rays, who are 49-47 on the season, are 57-39 against the runline – baseball’s version of the pointspread – stacking +22.07 units for those dealing the one and a half runs. Tampa Bay has a plus-20 run differential on the year and has gone 39-18 as a runline underdog, which can be a tricky bet given the price tag on that one and a half run padding.

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