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Thread: CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 5 (Thur., July 12 - Sat., July 14)

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    Default CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 5 (Thur., July 12 - Sat., July 14)

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, July 12 - Saturday, July 14

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    CFL Betting Recap - Week 4
    Joe Williams

    League Betting Notes

    -- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 SU in Week 4
    -- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 ATS in Week 4
    -- Home teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 4
    -- Home teams posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 4
    -- The 'Under' went 3-1 in Week 4

    Analysis

    Saskatchewan (2-2) has been a difficult club to figure out. They opened with a win against the defending champs, they dropped two in a row, including last week when they were favored by 10 1/2. This week, they were underdogs by six points at home to Hamilton (2-2) in a low-scoring affair. The 'under' has now connected in three of four games so far for the Roughriders.

    Thursday's battle marked the ninth consecutive 300-yard passing performance for Ti-Cats QB Jeremiah Masoli, so that's why QB Johnny Manziel remains nailed to the bench. The defense continues to get better for the boys from The Hammer, allowing 17.5 PPG over the past two games. The 'under' is 3-1 for the Cats to this point.

    Ottawa (2-1) maintained their dominance against Montreal (1-3), winning 28-18 as the 'under' connected again. The RedBlacks have hit the under in each of the past two, while the under is 3-1 in four outings for the Alouettes. Offense has been a real chore for the Alouettes, as they have scored 18 or fewer points in three of their past four, averaging just 15.3 PPG.

    Edmonton (2-2) was dumped 20-17 in Toronto (1-2), as the Esks continue to alternate wins and losses. They're also a dismal 1-3 ATS overall, and 0-2 ATS on the road. They'll get another crack at the Argos in Edmonton on Friday night.

    The Argos picked up their first win of the season, as the bye seemed to do them some good. They were averaging just 13.0 PPG in their first two losses, but they hit 20 for the first time this season in the win. The defense was much improved against the Esks, too. They allowed 34.0 PPG in the first two outings, but the halved that in Week 4. The 'under' has hit in three straight to open the season.

    Winnipeg (2-2) hammered the BC Lions (1-2), as the Blue Bombers have alternated wins and losses like the Eskimos. The Bombers are a respectable 3-1 ATS so far this season, including 2-0 ATS at home with the 'over' also 2-0 in their two games on home turf.

    Team Betting Notes and A Look Ahead

    -- Calgary (3-0) will look horns with the RedBlacks for the second time this season, this time in Canada's capital city. The RedBlacks will be looking to avenge a 24-14 loss in Calgary on June 28 as 7 1/2-point underdogs. The Stamps are 3-0 ATS with the under also 3-0. The Stamps are 9-3-2 ATS in their past 14 following a bye week.

    -- Meanwhile, the RedBlacks are 4-0 ATS in their past four games in July, but just 2-5 ATS in the past seven after a straight-up victory. The 'over' is 3-0-1 in the past four meetings in Ottawa, while going 6-1-1 in the past eight in this series.

    -- The Argos have posted a dismal 4-12 ATS mark across their past 16 road games, and for what it's worth, they're a dismal 1-10 ATS in their past 11 appearances on Friday. However, the Esks are 2-5 ATS in their past seven on Friday, so that doesn't really matter. The Esks are 3-8-2 ATS in the past 13 against teams with a losing record, too. The 'over' is 10-2 in the past 12 meetings, while going 5-0 in the past five meetings in Edmonton. Of course, last week was an 'under' result.

    -- The Blue Bombers and Lions will square off for a second straight week, this time in Vancouver. Winnipeg won 41-19 last weekend in Manitoba. Winnipeg is 18-5 ATS in their past 23 road outings, while going 6-2 ATS in their past eight against teams with a losing record. They're also 12-4 ATS in the past 16 against Western Conference foes.

    -- For the Lions, they're a poor 5-15-1 ATS in the past 21 meetings against Western Conference opponents. They're also 1-4 ATS in the past five home outings. The 'over' looks pretty attractive, going 18-7-2 in the past 27 against Western Conference foes for WPG, while going 13-4 in their past 17 road outings. The over is 4-0 in BC's past four against the West, while going 5-1 in their past six overall. That includes last week in Winnipeg. In fact, the over is 7-1 in the past eight meetings, and 4-0 in the past four meetings in BC.

    -- Winnipeg is 4-0 ATS in their past four trips to Vancouver, while going 15-5-1 ATS in the past 21 meetings overall in this series.
    Last edited by Udog; 07-09-2018 at 07:50 PM.

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    CFL Betting Notes - Week 5
    David Schwab


    Thursday, July 12

    Calgary Stampeders (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) at Ottawa RedBlacks (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)

    Point-spread: Calgary -3
    Point-spread: 54 ½

    Game Overview

    Calgary went into last week’s bye fresh off a 24-14 victory against Ottawa as a 7 ½-point home favorite in Week 3. It has now won each of its first three games by double figures while easily covering the spread. The total has stayed UNDER the closing line in all three contests. Bo Levi Mitchell is off to a solid start throwing the ball with 872 passing yards and six touchdown throws. Don Jackson has also done a good job on the ground with 294 yards rushing and two scores on 36 carries for an average of 8.2 yards a run.

    The RedBlacks took the early lead in the East Division with last week’s victory against Montreal. After Trevor Harris was held to 135 yards passing in the loss to the Stampeders, he returned to form against the Alouettes with 342 yards through the air and three scoring strikes. Harris completed 66.7 percent of his 42 passing attempts in that game with Brad Sinpoli coming down with 11 receptions for 148 yards and one of those three touchdown throws. William Powell had another big game running the ball with 138 yards rushing on 23 carries.

    Betting Trends

    -- Calgary has gone 4-2-1 SU in its last seven games against the RedBlacks, but it falls to 2-4 ATS in its last six road games against Ottawa. The total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings in Ottawa.

    Friday, July 13

    Toronto Argonauts (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Edmonton Eskimos (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)

    Point-spread: Edmonton -7
    Point-spread: 54

    Game Overview

    Toronto comes into the back end of this home-and-home series with James Franklin as its starting quarterback. He made his first start of the season last week for the injured Ricky Ray and threw for 217 yards and a score while adding another touchdown on a run. Franklin ended the game with 31 yards on the ground on six rushing attempts. The Argonauts also got a strong effort from James Wilder Jr. running the ball with 120 yards and a score on 21 carries. Declan Cross caught the game winner in the fourth quarter to give Toronto the come-from-behind win.

    Defense has been an issue for Edmonton in its 2-2 start. The Eskimos gave up 38 points in an early season loss to Hamilton and they could not hold onto the lead last Saturday in this home-and-home series opener. Mike Reilly was able to move the ball against Toronto almost at will with 370 yards passing, but it still only added up to 17 points on the board. He completed 70.0 percent of his 40 attempts with one touchdown throw and one interception. Edmonton was held to 56 yards rushing with CJ Gable gaining just 39 yards on 14 carries.

    Betting Trends

    -- The Eskimos have won four of the last six meetings SU and they have gone 6-1 SU in their last seven home games against Toronto. The total has gone OVER in the last five meetings in Edmonton.

    Saturday, July 14

    Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) at British Columbia Lions (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)

    Point-spread: OFF
    Point-spread: OFF

    Game Overview

    Winnipeg gained the early edge in this home-and-home series with its play on both sides of the ball. Andrew Harris rushed for 109 yards and a touchdown on nine carries and Adam Bighill posted a pair of interceptions on defense including one that was returned 55-yards for a touchdown. Leading 28-10 at the half, the Blue Bombers cruised to the lopsided win. Matt Nichols saw his first action of the season coming off a knee injury and the rust was evident with a 55.2 completion percentage on 29 passing attempts for 162 yards and a score.

    The Lions have gotten doubled up in their last two games by a combined score of 82-41. Both losses came on the road following a 22-10 victory at home against Montreal as 8 ½-point favorites in Week 1. Jonathan Jennings ended last Saturday’s game with 105 yards passing plus those two picks with zero touchdown throws. Cody Fajardo added a third interception while completing five of six attempts for 68 yards. Jeremiah Johnson had a decent day running the ball with 80 rushing yards on 13 attempts.

    Betting Trends

    -- Winnipeg has won six of the last nine meetings SU while covering ATS in eight of those games. It has a 6-1 edge ATS in its last seven road games against the Lions and the total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings in BC.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-13-2018 at 01:32 PM.

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    CFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 5


    Thursday, July 12

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    CALGARY (3 - 0) at OTTAWA (2 - 1) - 7/12/2018, 7:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OTTAWA is 29-12 ATS (+15.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1996.
    OTTAWA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
    CALGARY is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
    CALGARY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    OTTAWA is 3-3 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
    CALGARY is 3-1 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Friday, July 13

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    TORONTO (1 - 2) at EDMONTON (2 - 2) - 7/13/2018, 9:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TORONTO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing on a Friday over the last 3 seasons.
    EDMONTON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
    EDMONTON is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TORONTO is 3-2 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
    EDMONTON is 3-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Saturday, July 14

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    WINNIPEG (2 - 2) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (1 - 2) - 7/14/2018, 10:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    WINNIPEG is 6-1 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
    WINNIPEG is 4-3 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CFL

    Week 5


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    Trend Report
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    Thursday, July 12

    Calgary Stampeders
    Calgary is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
    Calgary is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Calgary's last 8 games
    Calgary is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Calgary is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Calgary's last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Calgary's last 8 games when playing Ottawa
    Calgary is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
    Calgary is 1-5-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
    Ottawa RedBlacks
    Ottawa is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games
    Ottawa is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Ottawa's last 12 games
    Ottawa is 1-4-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Calgary
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Ottawa's last 8 games when playing Calgary
    Ottawa is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Calgary
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games when playing at home against Calgary


    Friday, July 13

    Toronto Argonauts
    Toronto is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Toronto is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games
    Toronto is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
    Toronto is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games on the road
    Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Edmonton
    Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
    Toronto is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
    Edmonton Eskimos
    Edmonton is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
    Edmonton is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games
    Edmonton is 7-14 ATS in its last 21 games at home
    Edmonton is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Edmonton's last 9 games at home
    Edmonton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games when playing Toronto
    Edmonton is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
    Edmonton is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto


    Saturday, July 14

    Winnipeg Blue Bombers
    Winnipeg is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games
    Winnipeg is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
    Winnipeg is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 14 of Winnipeg's last 18 games on the road
    Winnipeg is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing British Columbia
    Winnipeg is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing British Columbia
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Winnipeg's last 8 games when playing British Columbia
    Winnipeg is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
    Winnipeg is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Winnipeg's last 16 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
    British Columbia Lions
    British Columbia is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
    British Columbia is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of British Columbia's last 6 games
    British Columbia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    British Columbia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 6 games at home
    British Columbia is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Winnipeg
    British Columbia is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Winnipeg
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of British Columbia's last 8 games when playing Winnipeg
    British Columbia is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
    British Columbia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of British Columbia's last 16 games when playing at home against Winnipeg


    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-12-2018 at 02:05 AM.

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    CFL
    Dunkel

    Week 5



    Thursday, July 12

    Calgary @ Ottawa

    Game 361-362
    July 12, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Calgary
    123.821
    Ottawa
    115.752
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Calgary
    by 8
    48
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Calgary
    by 3 1/2
    55
    Dunkel Pick:
    Calgary
    (-3 1/2); Under



    Friday, July 13

    Toronto @ Edmonton

    Game 363-364
    July 13, 2018 @ 9:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Toronto
    106.255
    Edmonton
    117.119
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Edmonton
    by 11
    51
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Edmonton
    by 9
    53 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Edmonton
    (-9); Under



    Saturday, July 14

    Winnipeg @ BC Lions

    Game 365-266
    July 14, 2018 @ 10:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Winnipeg
    110.760
    BC Lions
    109.472
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Winnipeg
    by 1 1/2
    56
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Winnipeg
    No Line
    N/A
    Dunkel Pick:
    Winnipeg
    N/A
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-12-2018 at 11:35 AM.

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    CFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 5



    Calgary (3-0) (-3.5, 55) @ Ottawa (2-1)— Stampeders (-7.5) beat Ottawa 24-14 at home two weeks ago, then had their bye last week; home teams are 6-0-2 in last eight series games, with four of those going to OT- Stamps are 0-2-2 in last four visits here. Calgary won its first three games this year, all by 10+ points- they won their only road game, 41-7 at Toronto. Ottawa averaged nine yards per rush but completed only 50% of their passes in that loss two weeks ago; RedBlacks won their only home games 40—17 vs Saskatchewan, then split pair of road games. Over is 6-1-1 in last eight series games.

    Toronto (1-2) @ Edmonton (2-2) (-9, 53.5)— Home side won eight of last nine series games; Eskimos (-3) lost 20-17 in Toronto last week, with Argos scoring GW TD with 3:12 left. Eskimos gained 426 yards but scored only 17 points. Argonauts lost their last four visits to Edmonton (1-3 vs spread). Toronto had scored total of 26 points in losing its first two games before winning LW; Argos lost 27-19 in Regina in their one road game so far. Under is 3-0 in Toronto games, 3-1 in Edmonton games. Eskimos scored 33-41 points in their wins, 21-17 in their losses- they split their first two home games, losing to Hamilton, beating BC.

    Winnipeg (2-2) @ BC Lions (1-2)— Winnipeg covered eight of last nine series games. Blue Bombers waxed BC 41-19 last week, racing out to 28-10 halftime lead. Lions threw three INT’s, were -3 in turnovers, and were outgained 359-280. Home side won four of last five series games; Bombers lost their last two visits here, by total of four points. Over is 3-1 in Bomber games this year; they scored 56-41 points in their two wins, 30-17 in their losses. Winnipeg split its first two road games. Home side won Lions’ first three games this year; they beat Montreal 22-10 in their home opener. Over is 2-1 in BC games this year.

    Favorites 9-7; Under 10-6
    Last edited by Udog; 07-12-2018 at 11:29 AM.

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