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Thread: At the Gate - Sunday at Belmont Park

  1. #1
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    Default At the Gate - Sunday at Belmont Park

    At the Gate - Sunday
    July 7, 2018
    By Mike Dempsey


    We had a pretty good day at Belmont Park for Stars & Stripes Day with four winners on top including Diversify, who wired the field in the Suburban (G2) in a sharp effort and returning $14.00.


    We also had a few bad beats, with Analyze It getting run down yet again by Catholic Boy in the Belmont Derby (G1), Whitmore getting into some traffic trouble and getting beaten by Limousine Liberal and Canessar coming up just short of catching Catcho En Die in the Stars & Stripes (G3) at Arlington Park.


    I really thought we were going to see a big performance from Mendelssohn, but he just again did not fire his best in a third-place finish in the Dwyer (G3). We did see one heck of an effort from Firenze Fire.


    The Jason Servis trainee bounced back off his 11th place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1) to win the Dwyer by nine lengths, returning $7.50.


    Servis is just winning at an incredible rate. At Belmont Park he has won with 17 of his 35 starters, winning at a 49% clip. It is even higher at Monmouth Park where he won with 19 of his 35 starters, good for a 54% win clip.


    On the year Servis has won 67 races form 199 starters, a 34% win rate. Last year his starters won at a 29% clip and overall in his career he has won at 24%.


    He is winning stakes, claiming races, first time starters, just about every category.


    It will be interesting to see if he can keep winning at this high percentage when we hit Saratoga in a couple of weeks.


    Sunday’s Best Plays Report includes my nine strongest plays from Belmont Park and Monmouth Park.


    Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:


    BEL Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:30 ET)
    #4 No Way Never 2-1
    #3 Teachable Moment 5-2
    #5 Joyful Heart 8-5
    #6 Cotton House 6-1


    Analysis: No Way Never makes his debut here for the Ward barn that is 31% winners (with a +ROI) overall with firs time starters. In the past three months the trainer has hit with 15 of 35 juvie firsters. The gelding is out of the stakes winner La Mejor Fiesta ($81,339) her first foal to race. Solid works at Keeneland for his debut.


    Teachable Moment is making his debut for the Brown barn that is 19% winners with first timers. He was a $180,000 Keeneland purchase, by More Than Ready out of a Mizzen Mast mare who ash dropped one other runner, a winner on dirt.


    Wagering
    WIN: #4 to win at 9-5 or better.
    EX: 3,4 / 3,4,5
    TRI: no play


    Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Monmouth Park:


    MTH Race 6 Md Sp Wt (3:05 ET)
    #7 Mother's Day 3-1
    #8 Avocado Toast 20-1
    #2 Abaco Dream 5-2
    #9 Super Tigress 5-1


    Analysis: Mother's Day is a $125,000 purchase making her debut for the Servis barn that just cannot be stopped, hitting at a 56% clip at the meeting at is over 40% winners at Belmont Park. His numbers with firsters are strong, hitting at a 30% clip (with a +ROI). Solid works although not the strongest turf pedigree, by Union Rags out of an Unbridled's Song mare who has dropped one other foal to race, not yet a winner.


    Avocado Toast chased the early pace and faded to finish seventh in his debut on the main track at Gulfstream Park. He then was off poorly stumbling and getting bumped around coming out of the gate at Belmont Park and never got untracked. He may like grass, out of a Storm Bird mare that has dropped five winners and two have won on turf. The barn brings them along slower than most. He should be forwardly place and is going to get overlooked on the tote.


    Wagering
    WIN: #7 to win at 5-2 or better.
    EX: 7,8 / 2,7,8,9
    TRI: 7,8 / 2,7,8,9 / 1,2,7,8,9


    Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:


    BEL Race 9 The Victory Ride G3 (5:50 ET)
    #3 Separationofpowers 4-1
    #5 Mia Mischief 2-1
    #4 Sower 5-1
    #8 Spectator 5-1


    Analysis: Separationofpowers makes her first start since running fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) which was her first start around two turns. She beat Caledonia road two back winning the one turn mile Frizette (G1) over a wet track here. She is back at one turn here for the Chad Brown barn that is 29% winners with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff. A steady string of works on the morning tab and she looks ready to go off the bench although she catches a pretty tough group here.


    Mia Mischief earned the top last out speed fig with a sharp win in the Eight Belles (G2) last out at Churchill Downs going seven furlongs. She has not missed landing in the exacta in her seven career starts. She owns a solid pace profile throughout and looks dangerous in here but her price is going to be on the light side.


    Wagering
    WIN: #3 to win at 3-1 or better.
    EX: 3,5 / 3,4,5,8
    TRI: 3,5 / 3,4,5,8 / 3,4,5,8,9


    Live Longshots:
    These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.


    Belmont Park
    R2: #6 Marriage Fever 8-1
    R6: #6 Banana Thief 10-1
    R7: #6 Silver Step 12-1
    R10: #1 There Goes Jose 20-1
    R10: #11 Thank You So Much 10-1


    Good luck today!
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  2. #2
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    At the Gate - Sunday
    July 15, 2018


    It is closing day at Belmont Park this afternoon and we have a nine-race card and we also will head out to Lone Star Park where there are four stakes for Texas breds and the potential of seeing 100 degree heat.

    The feature on closing day at Belmont Park is the $100,000 Lynbrook for state bred two-year-old fillies going six furlongs on the main track. A field of nine will line up including a pair of first time starters.

    The race has been run four times and in two of those years the winner was a first timer, and it could be three out of five because as you can see below I landed on the Rick Violette firster Tossup, a $230,000 son of Pioneerof the Nile.

    It is going to be a hot one at Lone Star and we have several competitive fields including a couple of juvenile races that drew large fields.

    The nightcap is the $100,000 Texas Thoroughbred Futurity at five furlongs on the main track with a field of 12 juveniles heading to the starting gate.

    The Karl Broberg trained Wakefield is the 2-1 morning line favorite off a good looking maiden win in his debut back in May.

    The co-feature is the $100,000 Texas Thoroughbred Futurity for juvenile fillies that drew a field of 10. It is tough to split the top four and I landed on Adventurous Lady, who is still a maiden but put in two promising runs at Churchill Downs against open maidens and now faces restricted foes.

    The other stakes on the card are the $50,000 Valor Farm for fillies and mares and the $50,000 Assault for three-year-olds and upward going a mile on the main track.

    After a four day break we are back in action next Friday with opening day at Saratoga.

    Sunday’s Best Plays Report includes my nine strongest plays from Belmont Park and Lone Star Park.

    To purchase my Belmont Park and Best Plays Reports for Sunday click here.

    Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

    BEL Race 1 Clm $12,500 (1:30 ET)
    #6 Midnight Bounty 7-2
    #2 Timely Tradition 9-5
    #3 Madame Barbarian 2-1
    #1 Patriotic Endeavor 3-1

    Analysis: Midnight Bounty chased the early pace and finished evenly in a fourth-place finish last out in the mud for this tag. The mare was claimed away from the frigid Adsit barn by Falcone who is 3% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. Two back the mare was a good second versus $16,000 foes. She figures to bounce back over a fast main track and on the barn switch.

    Timely Tradition was a sharp winner for this tag last out, drawing off to win by 4 1/2 lengths. She makes her third start of her current form cycle for Clement and come straight back for the same tag here. She struggled in her previous starts versus tougher but has found the right level here.

    Wagering
    WIN: #6 to win at 5-2 or better.
    EX: 2,6 / 2,3,6
    TRI: no play

    Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

    BEL Race 7 The Lynbrook (4:46 ET)

    #8 Tossup 7-2
    #9 Positively Jean 4-1
    #1 Midnitesalright 5-1
    #7 She's Trouble 4-1

    Analysis: Tossup is a $230,000 Keeneland purchase making her debut for the Violette barn that is 19% winners with first time starters. This race has been run four times and twice has been won by debut runners. The filly is by Pioneerof the Nile out of the stakes winner Spritely ($463,378) who has dropped three foals to race with a pair of winners. The filly has solid looking works on the morning tab and looks ready to go.

    Positively Jean showed good early speed and took the field gate to wire to break her maiden in her debut going six furlongs over good turf. She was well backed, sent off at 6-5 in a field of six. Out of a Citydancer mare she should take to dirt. The Gargan barn is 29% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from turf to dirt. She breaks from the outside and may prove tough to catch.

    Wagering
    WIN: #8 to win at 5-2 or better.
    EX: 8,9 / 1,7,8,9
    TRI: 8,9 / 1,7,8,9 / 1,6,7,8,9

    Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Lone Star Park:
    LS Race 10 Texas Thoroughbred Futurity (7:01 CT)
    #7 Wakefield 2-1
    #11 Moro Charlie 10-1
    #6 Stupify 5-2
    #1 Lullaby Bling 5-1

    Analysis: Wakefield was bumped coming out of the gate, prompted the early pace from the outside and finished gamely to break his maiden in his debut, sent off at even money in a six-horse field and earning the top last out speed fig. The runner up Little Avenger came back to graduate in his next outing on June 9. He returns as a gelding here for who is hitting at a 32% clip at the meeting. Tough to go with the favorite in a 12-horse field but this guy looks as if he is going to move forward off a promising debut.

    Moro Charlie adds blinkers here for his second career start. The colt tracked the early pace and came with a six wide run and rallied to finish third. He is one of two in here sent out by the Calhoun barn that is 24% winners (with a ROI) with first time blinkers. He is the first foal to race out of an Indian Charlie mare. He should get a good trip sitting just off what figures to be a sharp early pace.

    Wagering
    WIN: #7 to win at 2-1 or better.
    EX: 7,11 / 1,6,7,11
    TRI: 7,11 / 1,6,7,11 / 1,6,7,11,12

    Live Longshots:
    These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

    Belmont Park
    R2: #2 My Impression 10-1
    R4: #4 Let’s Dance Some Mo 8-1
    R5: #1 Paranoia 8-1
    R6: #1 Platinum Nugget 10-1
    R8: #4 Lila Ruth 8-1

    Good luck today!
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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