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Thread: CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (Thur., July 5 - Sat., July 7)

  1. #1
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    Default CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (Thur., July 5 - Sat., July 7)

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, July 5 - Saturday, July 7

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    CFL Betting Recap - Week 3
    Joe Williams

    League Betting Notes

    -- Favorites went 3-1 SU in Week 3
    -- Favorites went 3-1 ATS in Week 3
    -- Home teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 3
    -- Home teams posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 3
    -- The 'Under' went 3-1 in Week 3

    Analysis

    The games on Thursday and Friday nights were pretty cut and dry. The favorites and the home teams each covered, rather handily in the Friday contests, and there was a good amount of defense with the exception of one game.

    Calgary (3-0) is off to its usual solid start, humbling Ottawa (1-1) in a 2016 Grey Cup rematch by a 24-14 margin to cover seven and a hook. The two teams played a defensive battle which saw just one quarter with more than 10 points, the final stanza. As such, the 'over' (56.5) was never seriously threatened. The RedBlacks are 0-4-2 SU in the past five regular-season meetings (yep, two ties), and 2-4 ATS in the past six. The RedBlacks do have that win in the Grey Cup against the Stamps, however.

    Hamilton (2-1) is off to a solid start, winning and covering for a second straight game in a 31-17 victory over Winnipeg (1-2) behind QB Jeremiah Masoli. The former standout at Oregon has recorded eight straight 300-yard games, just in case you were wondering why Johnny Manziel isn't playing.

    Edmonton (2-1) got off to a sluggish start in their divisional battle with BC Lions (1-1). In fact, the visitors fired out to an 11-0 lead thanks to some early miscues by the Eskimos. However, the Esks outscored the Lions 15-3 in the second quarter, and 24-8 in the second half to run away from the visitors and easily cover a 6 1/2-point number. Edmonton is having no problem putting points on the board, averaging 31.7 PPG through three outings. As you would imagine, the 'over' is a perfect 3-0.

    The surprise of the weekend was in Regina, as Montreal (1-2) surprised Saskatchewan (1-2) by a 23-17, winning straight up as 10 1/2-point underdogs to make any moneyline bettors (+425) very happy.

    Team Betting Notes and A Look Ahead

    -- The red-hot Ti-Cats hit the road for Regina to try and keep the Roughriders down. Hamilton hasn't had luck against the Mean Green lately, getting swept in two non-covers last season. They have dropped three in a row in the series dating back to a 53-7 win in the Hammer back on Aug. 20, 2016. Hamilton's last win in Saskatchewan came in a 31-21 victory July 26, 2015 as 1 1/2-point road 'dogs.

    -- The RedBlacks and Alouettes will play their first divisional games of the season in Week 4. Ottawa had its way with Montreal last season, sweeping all three meetings while also going 3-0 ATS. The 'under' cashed in each of the three contests, too. Montreal has dropped four in a row and went 0-4 ATS against Ottawa dating back to Aug. 19, 2016. The 'under' is also 5-1 in the past six meetings.

    -- The Esks catch Toronto (0-2) coming off a bye. The Argos hope the rest does them some good. They're 0-2 SU/ATS so far, with an average of just 13.0 PPG on the board while allowing 34.0 PPG. The 'under' has hit in both contests. These sides split a pair of regular-season meetings last season, with both teams protecting their home field. The Argos are 1-4 SU/2-3 ATS across the past five in this series.

    -- In Saturday's late game, the Lions and Bombers square off. Winnipeg has dominated this series of late, at least against the number, going 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings. That includes a 3-1 SU/ATS mark in their past four home meetings with BC. The 'over' is an impressive 6-2 in the past eight in this series, too.

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    CFL Betting Notes - Week 4
    David Schwab

    Thursday, July 5

    Hamilton Tiger-Cats (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) at Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)

    Point-spread: Hamilton -5 ½
    Total: 49

    Game Overview

    Hamilton has won its last two games by a combined 31 points after a tough loss to Calgary in Week 1 that was much closer than the 28-14 final score as a 7 ½-point road underdog. The total has stayed UNDER in two of its first three games after closing at 55 points or higher in all three contests. The Tiger-Cats’ offense has been successfully led by Jeremiah Masoli at quarterback. He threw for 369 yards and a score in Friday’s win against Winnipeg.

    Saskatchewan had a rough night against Montreal last week, especially when it came to throwing the ball. Brandon Bridge and David Watford combined for four interceptions filling in for an injured Zach Collaros. The Roughriders ended the game with just 279 yards of total offense. This was the second game in a row where they failed to score more than 17 points. Saskatchewan quarterbacks have now thrown a total of seven interceptions in those two loses.

    Betting Trends

    -- Saskatchewan has covered in five of its last six home games against Hamilton and the total has stayed UNDER in four of those six games.

    Friday, July 6

    Ottawa RedBlacks (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) at Montreal Alouettes (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)

    Point-spread: Ottawa -5 ½
    Total: 48 ½

    Game Overview

    The RedBlacks blasted Saskatchewan in their season opener in Week 2 with Trevor Harris completing 26-of-36 passes for 345 yards and two scores. Against the best team in the CFL last Thursday night, Harris came back down to earth with 135 passing yards and one interception. He completed a dismal 44.8 percent of his 29 passing attempts. The lone bright spot was William Powell’s 123 yards rushing the ball on 13 carries. He has gained 217 yards on 32 carries in his first two games.

    Montreal’s defense came to life in that Week 2 upset over the Roughriders after allowing a combined 78 points in the first two games this season. Quarterback Drew Willy left that game in the third quarter due to injury and his status for this game remains unknown. In his place, Jeff Mathews completed 8-of-12 passes for 98 yards. The Alouettes’ ground game was not a factor in the stunning upset with 32 yards on 16 rushing attempts.

    Betting Trends

    -- Ottawa has a SU 8-1 edge in the last nine meetings and it has covered the spread in its last five road games against the Alouettes. The total has stayed UNDER in all five of those games.

    Saturday, July 7

    Edmonton Eskimos (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Toronto Argonauts (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS)

    Point-spread: Edmonton -4 ½
    Total: 52 ½

    Game Overview

    Edmonton looked a bit shaky in its SU 1-1 start (0-2 ATS), but it quickly returned to form in Week 3 with that convincing victory against BC. The total has gone OVER in all three of its games with a scoring average of 31.7 points per game. Mike Reilly is once again one of the top quarterbacks in the CFL when it comes to passing yards with 1,020 in his first three starts. He is tied for the lead in passing touchdowns with six and he has completed 69.8 percent of his 106 attempts.

    Toronto needed last week’s bye to try and regroup following losses to Saskatchewan on the road and Calgary at home in the first two weeks of the new season. The bigger loss could be veteran quarterback Ricky Ray, who appears to be out for the season with a neck injury. In his place against Calgary in that 41-7 loss was James Franklin. He completed eight of his 13 passing attempts for 65 yards. The Argonauts gained another 76 yards running the ball on 15 attempts.

    Betting Trends

    -- Edmonton has the 6-3 edge ATS in the last nine meetings in Toronto, but the Argonauts are 5-1 SU in their last six home games against the Eskimos. The total gone OVER in five of those six home games.

    British Columbia Lions (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS)
    Point-spread: Winnipeg -3 ½
    Total: 53

    Game Overview

    The Lions got past Montreal at home in Week 1, but they are going to have to play much better than they did last week against Edmonton to compete in the West Division this season. Jonathon Jennings has completed 68.8 percent of his 48 passing attempts for 382 yards and two touchdowns against one interception. Emmanuel Arceneaux has been his top target with seven receptions for 106 yards in the first two games. The ground game has been led by Jeremiah Johnson with 116 yards and one score on 21 rushing attempts.

    Winnipeg had its hands full against the Tiger-Cats’ defense last week after a promising start by rookie quarterback Chris Streveler. He continues to fill in for an injured Matt Nichols and last week he looked like he was making his third start in the CFL with 146 yards passing, while completing 17 of his 30 passing attempts. The Blue Bombers were able to move the ball on the ground behind Andrew Harris and Streveler with a combined 121 yards rushing.

    Betting Trends

    -- The Blue Bombers have covered ATS in seven of the last eight meetings overall and the total has gone OVER in four of the last six meetings in Winnipeg.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-07-2018 at 01:08 AM.

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    CFL
    Dunkel

    Week 4



    Thursday, July 5

    Hamilton @ Saskatchewan

    Game 351-352
    July 5, 2018 @ 9:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Hamilton
    121.097
    Saskatchewan
    102.614
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Hamilton
    by 18 1/2
    45
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Hamilton
    by 6
    49
    Dunkel Pick:
    Hamilton
    (-6); Under


    Friday, July 6

    Ottawa @ Montreal


    Game 353-354
    July 6, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Ottawa
    116.662
    Montreal
    95.775
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Ottawa
    by 21
    44
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Ottawa
    by 6
    48 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Ottawa
    (-6); Under


    Saturday, July 7

    Edmonton @ Toronto


    Game 355-356
    July 7, 2018 @ 5:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Edmonton
    112.575
    Toronto
    110.633
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Edmonton
    by 2
    57
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Edmonton
    by 5
    52 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Toronto
    (+5); Over

    BC Lions @ Winnipeg


    Game 357-358
    July 7, 2018 @ 8:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    BC Lions
    109.328
    Winnipeg
    111.274
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Winnipeg
    by 2
    56
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Winnipeg
    by 4
    53
    Dunkel Pick:
    BC Lions
    (+4); Over
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-07-2018 at 01:09 AM.

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    CFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 4


    Thursday, July 5

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    HAMILTON (2 - 1) at SASKATCHEWAN (1 - 2) - 7/5/2018, 9:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    SASKATCHEWAN is 81-57 ATS (+18.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
    SASKATCHEWAN is 135-99 ATS (+26.1 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
    SASKATCHEWAN is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) in July games since 1996.
    HAMILTON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SASKATCHEWAN is 3-1 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
    SASKATCHEWAN is 3-1 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Friday, July 6

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    OTTAWA (1 - 1) at MONTREAL (1 - 2) - 7/6/2018, 7:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OTTAWA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
    OTTAWA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    OTTAWA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    MONTREAL is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    MONTREAL is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    MONTREAL is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
    MONTREAL is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
    MONTREAL is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    MONTREAL is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    MONTREAL is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    OTTAWA is 5-1 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
    OTTAWA is 5-1 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Saturday, July 7

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    EDMONTON (2 - 1) at TORONTO (0 - 2) - 7/7/2018, 5:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    EDMONTON is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
    TORONTO is 21-42 ATS (-25.2 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 since 1996.
    TORONTO is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 52.5 and 56 since 1996.
    TORONTO is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TORONTO is 2-2 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
    EDMONTON is 3-1 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    BRITISH COLUMBIA (1 - 1) at WINNIPEG (1 - 2) - 7/7/2018, 8:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    BRITISH COLUMBIA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    BRITISH COLUMBIA is 56-32 ATS (+20.8 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
    BRITISH COLUMBIA is 38-20 ATS (+16.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1996.
    BRITISH COLUMBIA is 70-48 ATS (+17.2 Units) in road games off a division game since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    WINNIPEG is 5-1 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
    WINNIPEG is 3-3 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-07-2018 at 01:10 AM.

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    CFL

    Week 4


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Thursday, July 5

    Hamilton Tiger-Cats
    Hamilton is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
    Hamilton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    Hamilton is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games
    Hamilton is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
    Hamilton is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    Hamilton is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games when playing Saskatchewan
    Hamilton is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing Saskatchewan
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Hamilton's last 8 games when playing Saskatchewan
    Hamilton is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
    Hamilton is 2-16 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hamilton's last 6 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
    Saskatchewan Roughriders
    Saskatchewan is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Saskatchewan is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Saskatchewan's last 8 games
    Saskatchewan is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Saskatchewan is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Saskatchewan's last 6 games at home
    Saskatchewan is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games when playing Hamilton
    Saskatchewan is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing Hamilton
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Saskatchewan's last 8 games when playing Hamilton
    Saskatchewan is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Hamilton
    Saskatchewan is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Hamilton
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 6 games when playing at home against Hamilton


    Friday, July 6

    Ottawa RedBlacks
    Ottawa is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games
    Ottawa is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games
    Ottawa is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
    Ottawa is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games on the road
    Ottawa is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Montreal
    Ottawa is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Montreal
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Ottawa's last 6 games when playing Montreal
    Ottawa is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Montreal
    Ottawa is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Montreal
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Ottawa's last 5 games when playing on the road against Montreal
    Montreal Alouettes
    Montreal is 1-13 ATS in its last 14 games
    Montreal is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games
    Montreal is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Montreal is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Montreal's last 6 games at home
    Montreal is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Ottawa
    Montreal is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Ottawa
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing Ottawa
    Montreal is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Ottawa
    Montreal is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Ottawa
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing at home against Ottawa


    Saturday, July 7

    Edmonton Eskimos
    Edmonton is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
    Edmonton is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 5 games
    Edmonton is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Edmonton is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Edmonton's last 9 games on the road
    Edmonton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 5 games when playing Toronto
    Edmonton is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    Edmonton is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    Toronto Argonauts
    Toronto is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games
    Toronto is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
    Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Edmonton
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Edmonton
    Toronto is 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 games when playing at home against Edmonton
    Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Edmonton
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing at home against Edmonton


    British Columbia Lions
    British Columbia is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
    British Columbia is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games
    British Columbia is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    British Columbia is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    British Columbia is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Winnipeg
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of British Columbia's last 7 games when playing Winnipeg
    British Columbia is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 6 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
    Winnipeg Blue Bombers
    Winnipeg is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games
    Winnipeg is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 7 games
    Winnipeg is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Winnipeg's last 10 games at home
    Winnipeg is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing British Columbia
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Winnipeg's last 7 games when playing British Columbia
    Winnipeg is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against British Columbia
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games when playing at home against British Columbia


    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-07-2018 at 01:10 AM.

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    CFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 4



    Hamilton (2-1; -7.5, 51) @ Saskatchewan (1-2)— Roughriders won last three series games, winning four of last five series games played here, last two by 37-20/20-18 scores. Home side won seven of last nine series games. Under is 6-2 in last eight series games. Ti-Cats scored 38-31 points in winning their last two games; they split pair of road games, winning in Edmonton after losing opener 28-14 in Calgary. Riders scored 17-17 in losing its last two games; they split pair of home games, beating Toronto 27-19, losing 23-17 LW to Montreal.

    Ottawa (1-1; -7.5, 48.5) @ Montreal (1-2)
    — Ottawa won last five series games, last three all by 18+ points; they won last five visits to Montreal, three by 15+ points. RedBlacks are 9-1 vs spread in last 10 series games; last five series games stayed under. Ottawa split its first two games after its Week 1 bye, losing 24-14 in its only road game, in Calgary. Alouettes lost their only home game 56-10 to Winnipeg, but went to Regina LW and upset the Riders as 10.5-point underdogs. Two of their three games stayed under.

    Edmonton (2-1; -3, 55.5) @ Toronto (0-2)
    — Home side won seven of last eight series games; Eskimos lost four of last five visits here, with the one win two years ago. Nine of last ten series games went over the total. Edmonton scored 33-41 points in its two wins, 21 in their only loss at at home to Hamilton. Eskimos won their only road game, 33-30 in Winnipeg. Over is 3-0 in Edmonton games this season. Argonauts lost their first two games 27-19/41-7; Franklin is their new QB after Ray was injured LW. Under is 2-0 in Toronto games this season.

    BC Lions (1-1) @ Winnipeg (1-2; -4.5, 55.5)
    — Lions won three of last four series games; they’re 2-3 in last five visits to Manitoba, winning 36-27 here LY. Six of last seven series games went over the total. BC scored 22-22 points in splitting its first two games this year; Lions lost their only road game 41-22 in Edmonton. Blue Bombers allowed 31-33 points in their two losses, but crushed Montreal 56-10 in their only win- they lost their only home game, 33-30 to Edmonton. Two of their three games this season went over.

    After CFL Week 3:
    Favorites 7-5; Under 7-5
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-07-2018 at 01:11 AM.

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