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Thread: Tuesday's WNBA Trends and Indexes - 6/5

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    Default Tuesday's WNBA Trends and Indexes - 6/5

    Trends and Indexes

    Tuesday, June 5

    Good Luck on day #156 of 2018!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

    Odds to win the US Open golf tournament next week:

    9-1— Dustin Johnson

    10-1- -Rory McIlroy

    12-1— Jordan Spieth

    14-1— Eldrick Woods

    15-1— Jason Day, Justin Thomas

    18-1— Jon Rahm, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler


    **********

    Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……

    13) Crossed paths last week with a group of four families and their 8-10 year old kids who were visiting from California, and were off to a trip to Cooperstown later that day.

    I always wonder when people come so far to visit the Baseball Hall of Fame, what they think of it once their trip is over. Cooperstown is in the middle of nowhere, 72 miles from Albany- if you like trees and lakes, you’ll enjoy the drive there. Very rural.

    Baseball Hall of Fame itself is tremendous, and Sal’s Pizza across the street is very good.

    12) Legalized sports betting starts today in Delaware; West Virginia hopes to have sports betting up and running by the start of football season. New Jersey is supposed to start sometime this month. New York? Who the bleep knows.

    11) Danny Hurley is the new basketball coach at UConn; he threw out the first ball at the Mets’ game Sunday. This will take some getting used to.

    How good a job is UConn? Not a lot of great players in-state, and the fanbase was spoiled by Jim Calhoun, not to mention how often the women’s team wins.

    10) Why does the baseball Wild Card exist? The ’93 San Francisco Giants went 103-59, and didn’t make the playoffs— how about that?

    Wild Cards started in baseball in ’95, but oddly, the Giants had losing seasons is 1994-96, after winning 103 games in ’93. They’ve made up for all that this decade.

    9) Oakland A’s drafted Oklahoma CF Skyler Murray with the #9 pick in the baseball draft; the thing here is, Murray is also penciled in to be the Sooners’ QB this fall. He is 5-10, very short for a potential NFL QB, but Brees, Tarkenton, Jurgensen, Russell Wilson are all under 6-feet tall.

    By way of information, the No. 9 pick in last year’s baseball draft got a $4M signing bonus.

    We’ll see how that works out, but would he leave Oklahoma now for $4-5M?

    8) Washington Nationals lost P Jeremy Hellickson (hamstring) after four pitches Sunday; he had been doing great work for Washington. Hamsrings generally take a while to heal.

    7) On May 1, Colorado Rockies were 30-1 to win the World Series; on June 1, they were 22-1.

    6) Part of the reason why? Arizona Diamondbacks hit .193 as a team in May.

    5) Have you seen David Letterman lately? He has this big, bushy white beard that makes him look like Rutherford B Hayes. First time I saw him with the beard, I didn’t recognize him.

    4) Philadelphia Eagles went for it on 4th down 29 times last year, most in the NFL.

    3) Tampa Bay’s Nate Snell tied an American League record Sunday when he struck out the first seven Mariners he faced in Seattle.

    2) ESPN wants to televise New York-Toronto game on Sunday Night Baseball July 8, but New York has a doubleheader in Baltimore the next day- they want Sunday’s game to be a day game.

    The two sides, MLB and the union are negotiating to reach a compromise, but if one isn’t found, New York might boycott dealing with ESPN personnel.

    Dodgers-Angels, Braves-Brewers or Cardinals-Giants would be alternative games to show.

    1) Baseball draft is weird, since it falls during the college baseball national tournament. How does it affect guys who are still playing? Lot of money on the line for these high draft picks, and the rookie leagues start on June 15th.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 06-05-2018 at 10:18 AM.

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    WNBA

    Tuesday, June 5


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Phoenix Mercury
    Phoenix is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Phoenix's last 9 games
    The total has gone OVER in 15 of Phoenix's last 23 games on the road
    Phoenix is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing New York
    Phoenix is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing New York
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 7 games when playing New York
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing on the road against New York
    New York Liberty
    New York is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games
    New York is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New York's last 13 games
    New York is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
    New York is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New York's last 9 games at home
    New York is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Phoenix
    New York is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Phoenix
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of New York's last 7 games when playing Phoenix
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New York's last 5 games when playing at home against Phoenix


    Connecticut Sun
    Connecticut is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Connecticut is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Connecticut's last 6 games
    Connecticut is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games on the road
    Connecticut is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Connecticut's last 5 games on the road
    Connecticut is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Atlanta
    Connecticut is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    Connecticut is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    Atlanta Dream
    Atlanta is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games
    Atlanta is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games
    Atlanta is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games at home
    Atlanta is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home
    Atlanta is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Connecticut
    Atlanta is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Connecticut


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 06-05-2018 at 10:22 AM.

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    WNBA
    Dunkel

    Tuesday, June 5



    Phoenix @ New York

    Game 601-602
    June 5, 2018 @ 11:00 am

    Dunkel Rating:
    Phoenix
    112.010
    New York
    111.017
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Phoenix
    by 1
    152
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New York
    by 2 1/2
    159 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Phoenix
    (+2 1/2); Under

    Connecticut @ Atlanta


    Game 603-604
    June 5, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Connecticut
    113.515
    Atlanta
    111.518
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Connecticut
    by 2
    158
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Connecticut
    by 7
    166
    Dunkel Pick:
    Atlanta
    (+7); Under
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 06-05-2018 at 10:23 AM.

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    WNBA
    Long Sheet

    Tuesday, June 5


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PHOENIX (4 - 3) at NEW YORK (2 - 2) - 6/5/2018, 11:00 AM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PHOENIX is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) on Tuesday over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW YORK is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW YORK is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW YORK is 4-3 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
    NEW YORK is 4-3 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CONNECTICUT (5 - 0) at ATLANTA (2 - 3) - 6/5/2018, 8:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CONNECTICUT is 45-28 ATS (+14.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    CONNECTICUT is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
    CONNECTICUT is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in a road game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 over the last 2 seasons.
    CONNECTICUT is 90-60 ATS (+24.0 Units) in June games since 1997.
    CONNECTICUT is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in May, June, or July games over the last 2 seasons.
    CONNECTICUT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) on Tuesday over the last 3 seasons.
    CONNECTICUT is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    CONNECTICUT is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
    CONNECTICUT is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games after scoring 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
    CONNECTICUT is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
    CONNECTICUT is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
    ATLANTA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in June games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CONNECTICUT is 4-3 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
    ATLANTA is 5-2 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 06-05-2018 at 10:23 AM.

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    WNBA Betting Recap - 5/28-6/3
    Joe Williams


    League Betting Notes (Monday, May 28 through Sunday, June 3)

    -- Favorites went 9-5 straight up (SU)
    -- Favorites went 7-6-1 against the spread (ATS)
    -- Home teams posted a 8-6 SU record
    -- Road teams posted a 7-6-1 ATS record
    -- The 'over' went 8-6

    Team Betting Notes

    -- It was a memorable week for Las Vegas (1-5), as they were able to pick up the first regular season victory in franchise history. The Aces scored an 85-73 victory over Washington (5-3) on June 1 in Nevada. The loss snapped a 4-0 ATS run for the Mystics, so it was rather surprising. The 'under' has cashed in three of the past four for Washington, too.

    -- Connecticut (5-0) continues its early-season assault on the rest of the WNBA, covering four of their five outings so far. That includes a perfect 2-0 ATS through two road contests. The four-game road odyssey continues with stops in Atlanta (2-3) and New York (2-2) this week.

    -- The Dream has alternated losses and wins through their five outings, doing the same against the spread, too. If the trend continues, a win and cover against the visiting Sun on Tuesday will be coming. One thing that isn't erratic about Atlanta is their work against the total, as the 'under' has hit in four in a row.

    -- After two setbacks to open the new season the Liberty has won each of their past two. They have also covered three in a row, while the 'over' is 3-1 on the young campaign.

    -- Chicago (3-3) slapped the brakes on a three-game losing streak, edging the Aces 95-90 on Sunday. The Sky has posted 80 or more points in four of six outings, while allowing at least 76 points in the past five. The 'over' has hit in three in a row for Chicago.

    -- Indiana (0-6) is still searching for its first victory of the season. Defense has been the issue for the Fever, as they have allowed 82 or more points in all six contests. The 'over' has connected in four of their past five outings.

    -- Like Atlanta above, Dallas (3-3) has alternated losses and wins through their six battles to date. Defense has been an issue for the Wings, as they have yielded at least 76 points in all but one of their four outings, including 92.0 PPG allowed over the past two games. The 'over' has hit in four of their contests. Dallas is on an impressive 4-1 ATS run over the past five heading into the new week.

    -- Minnesota (2-5) is experiencing some uncharacteristic struggles, as they're in the midst of a four-game losing streak. They had been favorites in their first six outings, but they were an underdog for their most recent setback. Fade Minnesota if you want to cash big, as the Lynx are 0-7 ATS so far this season. The 'under' is also an impressive 5-2.

    -- Los Angeles (4-1) is off to a solid start, with only a setback to the Sun back on May 24. They're also 4-1 ATS so far.

    -- Seattle (5-2) had its five-game winning streak snapped in Big D, losing 94-90 against the Wings. The Storm have alternated non-covers and covers in each of their seven games. The 'over' has hit in six of their seven games so far this season.

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    Who's Hot?

    WNBA – Connecticut Sun Straight Up and ATS (5-0 SU; 4-1 ATS)

    The WNBA's Connecticut Sun has started the 2018 campaign with an undefeated mark and done it in impressive fashion. The Sun's 4-1 ATS record comes with them laying -9 or more in three of their five games (2-1 ATS in those three games) being favored in all five contests. The average margin of victory for them this year sits at 23 points! That's a huge number to be winning by on average, and it always helps to have multiple 30+ point wins in there. There's definitely been no hangover from losing in the Eastern Finals last year for this team.

    This week we will see Connecticut hit the floor three times (Tuesday/Thursday/Saturday) with the first two being road tests in Atlanta and New York. Neither team has squared off with the Sun yet this year, but with both likely to be home underdogs this week and oddsmakers getting to the point where inflated Connecticut's spreads a touch might be more of an option, are you going to be willing to ride out this streak Connecticut is on or throw caution into the wind and look for a stumble this week. Depending on what kind of point spreads we see, I'd probably be inclined to go the latter route and take the points with the home side.


    Who's Not?

    WNBA – Minnesota Lynx ATS (0-7 ATS)

    The Minnesota Lynx are the defending WNBA Champions and usually it's the past year's runner-up that experiences a “championship hangover” the following campaign, but as of now it's actually the champs who have fallen victim to that cold. Not only does Minnesota have a SU losing record through seven games this year (2-5 SU), but they've failed to cover a single point spread.

    Now, being the defending champs is always going to force oddsmakers to attach a premium to the numbers they put out, but this might have gotten to the point where things might actually be flipping the other way. Minnesota was favored in each of their first six games – they went 2-4 SU in them – and with the losses piling up and a visit to L.A to play a good Sparks team this past Sunday, Minnesota found themselves catching points for the first time this year. Obviously that was another ATS loss, but the stance on this team in terms of how good they actually are has softened dramatically.

    If that equates to Minnesota getting some point spreads that are more representative of “true” numbers for this year and not influenced by past successes, I'd look for this ATS drought to be snapped sooner than later. They've got road games in Washington and Connecticut (Thursday and Saturday) this week, and should be catching points in both. Consider taking those points if you can in at least one of those contests.

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