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Thread: Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/8

  1. #1
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    Default Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/8

    Trends and Indexes

    Tuesday, May 8

    Good Luck on day #128 of 2018!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

    Updated US Open odds:

    10-1— DJohnson, Spieth

    12-1— McIlroy, Thomas

    14-1— Day, Fowler

    16-1— Rahm

    20-1— Rose

    25-1— Woods, Mickelson, Matsuyama


    **********

    Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……

    13) Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan signed a five-year, $150 million deal ($100 million guaranteed), making him the first $30-million-a-year player in NFL history.

    Wonder what Tom Brady thinks about that?

    12) Since 1998, 66 NFL teams have won 4+ more games than they did the year before; six of those were last year. How do teams do the year after making such a big improvement?

    Of the 60 teams between 1998-2016 to win 4+ more games than the year before, those teams won an average of 4.17 FEWER games the next year.

    Why? Maybe teams don’t get the same breaks they did the year before, or injuries are an issue but there is usually a regression the year after teams have a quantum leap.

    11) One thing here: 36 of those 66 teams had a first-year head coach. Maybe hearing a new voice or having a new program helps a team play better.

    10) The six teams who had a quantum leap last year? Jaguars, Rams, Chargers, Vikings, Eagles and 49ers.

    9) One oddity in compiling this list; only three teams in last 20 years fit into this category two years in a row, but two of the three were coached by John Fox: Carolina in 2002-03 and the Broncos in 2011-12.

    Oakland (’15/’16) was 3rd team and they fired their coach after they regressed in 2017.

    8) Detroit Pistons fired coach/president Stan Van Gundy, after five years. If I remember right, he did some college games for NBC College Sports (CAA games?) the last time he was a free agent coach, so maybe he’ll go back on TV and we can learn from him this winter.

    7) A woman in Texas bet $18 on a pick-5 at Churchill Downs Saturday, and went home with a check for $1.2M. Justify was the favorite in the Kentucky Derby, but she also nailed a 39-1 winner named Funny Duck and a 9-1 shot named Yoshida.

    6) Last three years, Baltimore Ravens finished 29th, 12th and 29th in NFL in passing yards; the problem might not be Joe Flacco— maybe they should get a decent offensive coordinator. Marty Mornhinweg ain’t the answer.

    Look at Jared Goff LY, once he had a decent OC to school him; big difference, right?

    5) CBS will have an NFL broadcast team this fall of Greg Gumbel, Trent Green and Bruce Arians; Arians might need a 5-second delay in case he curses on air, but I can’t wait to hear his game analysis, especially where quarterbacks are concerned.

    4) This from TheMMQB.com: Miami Dolphins’ director of college scouting Adam Engroff has more than 7,000,000 Marriott points- he’s stayed in Marriotts for 3,778 nights in his life.

    The guy has spent the equivalent of 10.35 years of his life staying in a Marriott. Oy.

    3) NBA playoff factoid: Cleveland Cavaliers have a $100 fine for each player that falls for one of DeMar DeRozan’s pump fakes.

    2) Monday would’ve been Dick Williams’ 89th birthday; Williams, John McNamara and Jimmy Dykes hold the MLB record, having managed six different major league teams.

    Williams was a Hall of Fame manager, leading he A’s to the ’72/’73 World Series titles and also winning pennants with Boston and San Diego, but he would have a problem in today’s softer times. Williams was a surly guy who would criticize a player; that doesn’t fly these days.

    1— RIP Gretchen Piscotty, mother of A’s outfielder Stephen Piscotty. Mrs Piscotty passed away this weekend from ALS. St Louis traded Stephen to the A’s this past winter in part so he could spend more time with his mom in her final days. RIP ma’am.

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    Tuesday's NBA Playoffs betting preview and odds

    Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs continues Tuesday with the Western Conference taking center stage. The Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors both hold 3-1 series leads and look to eliminate the Utah Jazz and New Orleans Pelicans, respectively.

    Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets (-12, 208)

    Rockets lead series 3-1.

    The Houston Rockets will try to punch their ticket to the Western Conference final when they take on the Utah Jazz in Game 5 of their best-of-seven semifinal series on Tuesday. The Rockets lost their last game at home but rebounded with back-to-back double-digit victories at Salt Lake City to take a commanding 3-1 series lead.

    "Houston is that good. Give them credit. They know how to control a game," Jazz coach Snyder told reporters after a 100-87 loss on Sunday in Game 4. "In spite of that, I thought we just hung in there and took shots and kept coming and kept coming and eventually couldn't get over the hill." Chris Paul ate up Utah's defense with a string of short jumpers en route to a 27-point, 12-rebound, six-assist effort for Houston. "Chris is shooting those shots like layups," teammate James Harden - who added 24 points - told the media. "So he's gonna do it, he's gonna shoot 'em 20, 40 times, as many as he has to. He was extremely aggressive tonight, which we need from him." The Rockets are aiming for their eighth trip to a conference finals and their first since 2015, when they lost to Golden State, which carries a 3-1 lead in its series with New Orleans into the other Tuesday night matchup.

    TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT

    SERIES PRICE (PER WESTGATE LV SUPERBOOK):



    LINE MOVES AND BETTING ACTION: The Rockets opened as 13-point home favorites for Game 5 and that number was too big for the betting public. 63 percent of users are backing the Jazz as of Monday night and the pointspread has been reduced to -12. The total hit betting boards at 210 and has been dropped to 208.

    INJURY REPORT:

    Jazz - PG R. Rubio (Questionable, Hamstring), PG D. Exum (Questionable, Hamstring), SF T. Sefolosha (Out For Season, Knee).

    Rockets - No injuries to report.

    ABOUT THE JAZZ (53-39 SU, 47-45 ATS, 43-48-1 O/U): Ricky Rubio still has not played in the series due to a hamstring issue and Derrick Favors was limited to 16 minutes in Game 4 due to a sprained ankle as injuries have taken their toll on Utah. Rookie Donovan Mitchell is doing his best to be the leader on the offensive end but the Rockets have been able to key in on the 21-year-old, who was 8-of-24 from the floor Sunday as the Jazz shot a playoff-low 38.6 percent. "We missed 22 shots at the rim," Snyder said. "We had our chances and didn't convert. Some of them were contested. Some of them were open. You're not going to get any better shot."

    ABOUT THE ROCKETS (72-19 SU, 47-43-1 ATS, 37-53-1 O/U): Harden and Paul get the bulk of the headlines but center Clint Capela's ability to raise his game has made Houston particularly dangerous this spring. "I've been playing with so much energy with consistency that it just happened and it's been a big part of my game that I've improved," Capela told reporters at practice Monday. "I'm really excited to be back here but I expect (Game 5) to be as hard as yesterday." The 23-year-old had 12 points, 15 rebounds and six blocked shots in Game 4 and is averaging 15.4 points, 13 boards and 2.6 blocks in the playoffs - all increases from the regular season.

    MATCHUP CHART:



    TRENDS:

    * Jazz are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southwest.
    * Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
    * Under is 6-1 in Jazz' last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
    * Under is 35-16 in Rockets' last 51 overall.
    * Jazz are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings.




    New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors (-11.5, 227)

    Warriors lead series 3-1.

    The Golden State Warriors look to close out the Western Conference semifinals when they host the New Orleans Pelicans on Tuesday. The Warriors hold a 3-1 series lead after rolling to a 118-92 victory on Sunday for their second win by more than 20 points in the series.

    Golden State has averaged 120.7 points in its three victories in the series as the Pelicans have been powerless to halt the assault. Forward Kevin Durant poured in 38 points in the Game 4 victory as the Warriors moved closer to their fourth straight Western Conference finals appearance. New Orleans is insisting it won't roll over with its season on the line but ripping off three straight wins will be a daunting chore. "No, no. We've got to win one game at Oracle and that's the one that we play next," Pelicans coach Alvin Gentry said in reference to Game 5 in Oakland. "That's as far as we need to look. Obviously it's a monumental task. It's been done before. As I said to the guys, we've just got to go play and you're not out until they win four games."

    TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT

    SERIES PRICE (PER WESTGATE LV SUPERBOOK):



    LINE MOVES AND BETTING ACTION: The Warriors opened as 12-point home favorites for Game 5 and that number was too big for the betting public. 61 percent of users are backing the Pelicans as of Monday night and the pointspread has been reduced to -11.5. The total hit betting boards at 229 and has been dropped to 227.

    INJURY REPORT:

    Pelicans - C A. Ajinca (Out For Season, Knee), PG F. Jackson (Out For Season, Foot), C D. Cousins (Out For Season, Achilles).

    Warriors - SG P. McCaw (Early June, Back), SF C. Boucher (Out Indefinitely, Ankle).

    ABOUT THE PELICANS (53-37 SU, 51-38-1 ATS, 51-39 O/U): New Orleans suffered from poor shooting (36.4) and ball-handling (19 turnovers) in the Game 4 setback and star power forward Anthony Davis is expecting a strong bounce-back effort. "We just can't afford to shoot that poorly, but we've got another one," Davis told reporters. "Any time we've been punched in the mouth, we've always responded very well." Davis is averaging 26.3 points and 13.8 rebounds in the series and has a double-double in all eight of the team's postseason games.

    ABOUT THE WARRIORS (65-26 SU, 39-51-1 ATS, 43-47-1 O/U): Durant was 15-of-27 shooting in Game 4 and his scoring output was his highest of nine games this postseason. The splurge came after he received a critical 4 a.m. text from teammate Draymond Green after he was just 8-of-22 shooting while scoring 22 points in Game 3. "What we saw from him (Sunday), that's what we need," Green told reporters after Game 4. "He was engaged and scoring all over the place. He was changing the game. That's the impact he has when he's playing aggressive out there for us. That's what I love seeing."

    MATCHUP CHART:



    TRENDS:

    * Pelicans are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
    * Warriors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
    * Over is 5-1 in Pelicans' last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
    * Over is 6-1-1 in Warriors' last 8 home games.
    * Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Golden State.

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    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Tuesday, May 8


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    UTAH (53 - 39) at HOUSTON (72 - 19) - 5/8/2018, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    HOUSTON is 45-37 ATS (+4.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
    HOUSTON is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) against Northwest division opponents this season.
    HOUSTON is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
    HOUSTON is 58-77 ATS (-26.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 16-28 ATS (-14.8 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    HOUSTON is 10-5 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
    HOUSTON is 10-5 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
    9 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NEW ORLEANS (53 - 37) at GOLDEN STATE (65 - 26) - 5/8/2018, 10:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    GOLDEN STATE is 61-39 ATS (+18.1 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
    GOLDEN STATE is 63-37 ATS (+22.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
    NEW ORLEANS is 51-38 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games this season.
    NEW ORLEANS is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) in road games this season.
    NEW ORLEANS is 25-16 ATS (+7.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 38-50 ATS (-17.0 Units) in all games this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 37-45 ATS (-12.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) on Tuesday nights this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 19-31 ATS (-15.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    GOLDEN STATE is 8-7 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
    GOLDEN STATE is 13-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
    10 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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    NBA
    Dunkel

    Tuesday, May 8



    Utah @ Houston

    Game 505-506
    May 8, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Utah
    121.923
    Houston
    129.407
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Houston
    by 7 1/2
    214
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Houston
    by 12
    207 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Utah
    (+12); Over

    New Orleans @ Golden State


    Game 507-508
    May 8, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    New Orleans
    120.242
    Golden State
    125.811
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Golden State
    by 5 1/2
    233
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Golden State
    by 11 1/2
    226 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    New Orleans
    (+11 1/2); Over





    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Tuesday, May 8


    Pelicans @ Warriors (3-1)
    Warriors started Iguodala instead of McGee in Game 4 and all five Golden State starters were +21 or better in a 118-92 win on Bourbon Street Sunday. Warriors won 12 of last 14 games with New Orleans; Pelicans are 7-5 vs spread in last dozen series games. Over is 10-4 in last 14 series games. New Orleans had won nine in row before this series; they’re 11-2 vs spread in last 13 games. Pelicans lost Games 1-2 on this floor, by 22-5 points. New Orleans was 4-26 on arc on Sunday, after going 14-31 in Game 3.

    Jazz @ Rockets (3-1)
    Paul had 27 points, 12 rebounds, six assists in Sunday’s 100-87 win in Utah; Rockets led the two games there by 30-10 points at halftime. Houston won/covered seven of last eight games with Jazz; three of four games in this series stayed under total. Utah is -21 in turnovers in last three games. Crowder was 1-11, Mitchell 8-24 from floor on Sunday; Utah was 7-29 on arc. All three Rocket wins in this series were by 13+ points. Capela had 15 rebounds, 6 blocks in Game 4.

    Second Round
    Pelicans-Warriors

    GState 123-101, -7.5, O223.5
    GState 121-116, -11, O229
    NO 119-100, +5, U232.5
    GState 118-92, -6, U231.5

    Jazz-Rockets
    Hst 110-96, -11.5, U206.5
    Utah 116-108, +10.5, O205
    Hst 113-92, -4.5, U209.5
    Hst 100-87, -6, U211

    76ers-Celtics
    Bos 117-101, +5, O205
    Bos 108-103, +3.5, O206.5
    Bos 101-98 OT, +9.5, U206.5
    Phil 103-92, -7, U206.5

    Cavaliers-Raptors
    Clev 113-112 OT +7, O213.5
    Clev 128-110, +7, O213.5
    Clev 105-103, -4.5, U214.5
    Clev 128-93, -5, O213
    Cavaliers win series 4-0




    NBA

    Tuesday, May 8


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Utah Jazz
    Utah is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
    Utah is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Utah's last 6 games
    Utah is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Utah is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games on the road
    Utah is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Utah's last 12 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 6 games on the road
    Utah is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Houston
    Utah is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Houston
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games when playing Houston
    Utah is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Houston
    Utah is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Houston
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
    Houston Rockets
    Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Houston's last 17 games
    Houston is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Houston's last 19 games at home
    Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Utah
    Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Utah
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Utah
    Houston is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Utah
    Houston is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Utah
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing at home against Utah


    New Orleans Pelicans
    New Orleans is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games
    New Orleans is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games
    New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    New Orleans is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    New Orleans is 2-17 SU in its last 19 games when playing Golden State
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of New Orleans's last 14 games when playing Golden State
    New Orleans is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    Golden State Warriors
    Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Golden State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games
    Golden State is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home
    Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Golden State's last 8 games at home
    Golden State is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games when playing New Orleans
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Golden State's last 14 games when playing New Orleans
    Golden State is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against New Orleans
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Golden State's last 7 games when playing at home against New Orleans


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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    NBA

    Tuesday, May 8



    Current 2018 NBA Playoffs betting stats:

    Home Teams:
    43-18 Straight Up
    34-26-1 ATS (55.17%)

    Favorites:
    46-15 Straight Up
    36-24-1 ATS (58.62%)

    Over-Under: 30-31

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