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Thread: Sunday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/6

  1. #1
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    Default Sunday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/6

    Trends and Indexes

    Sunday, May 6

    Good Luck on day #126 of 2018!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

    NFL teams that had the most salary cap space heading into the draft:

    Cleveland Browns $69,538,631

    Indianapolis Colts $59,823,355

    San Francisco 49ers $43,846,316

    Tennessee Titans $35,846,817

    Houston Texans $35,584,833

    Chicago Bears $24,100,009

    **********

    Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind…….

    13) Watching the Kentucky Derby Saturday, it reminded me of the one and only time I’ve ridden a horse, the same day Secretariat won the Belmont Stakes. June of 1973, my 8th grade field trip.

    I get on this horse and make the mistake of asking the lady the horse’s name: “Jumper”

    Jumper didn’t enjoy the next half hour any more than I did, other than his wandering off the path to munch on bushes and ignoring anything I said to him. When he finally broke into a gallop, I wrapped my arms around his neck and held on for dear life.

    We both escaped unscathed, but not my finest moment.

    12) 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah has sex three times every day while his owners charge a $200,000 fee per impregnation- that makes the owners about $30,000,000 a year.

    11) The transfer epidemic in college basketball has become ridiculous.

    University of Albany (my alma mater) went 22-10 last year, lost at Louisville 70-68, but then they finished 4th in America East, the 25th (out of 32) ranked league in America. If you’re in America East and lose by a hoop at Louisville, you’d expect better than 4th, right?

    Apparently there were chemistry-related issues. Since the season ended, the Great Danes have lost four transfers, including their two best returning players. David Nichols, a 6-0 G who shot 37% from the arc- he graduated and will be a grad transfer at Florida State next fall.

    Joe Cremo is a 6-4 G who is a local kid (Scotia HS) who in three years at Albany shot 41.8% on the arc. Losing Cremo is a huge blow to Albany, but he is now being recruited as a grad transfer like he is freakin’ Steph Curry.

    10) He announced his “final 5” a while ago: Creighton, Gonzaga, Oregon, Penn State, Texas, but since then, he’s taken visits to Villanova and Kansas, where he was this weekend.

    We’ll see how this all turns out, but being a low major D-I coach ain’t as much fun anymore. It almost sounds like the recruiting (poaching) these high major teams do now is intoxicating to the players involved and they enjoy the attention it brings a little too much.

    9) Cavaliers 105, Raptors 103— Lebron James is freakin’ amazing; his runner off the glass to win this game at the buzzer was a tremendous shot.

    Last five years, Toronto Raptors are 263-147 in regular season games, but only made it to the “Final Four” of playoffs once, losing Eastern Conference final two years ago. Looks like they’ll fall short this year, too.

    If you own the Raptors, do you stay the course, as far as your coach goes? I would, but in this day and age, when a coach struggles to win playoff games (Dwane Casey is 21-29 in NBA playoff games), he quickly becomes expendable.

    8) Since 2009, Detroit Tigers have averaged 4.71 runs/game with Miguel Cabrera in the lineup, 4.11 when he is out. Cabrera is on the DL now with a hamstring injury.

    7) Jacksonville Jaguars were much-improved last year; lot of credit goes to Leonard Fournette, their rookie RB from LSU, but Fournette missed three games LY, and Jaguars won those three games, 27-0/23-7/45-7, while running ball for 158.3 ypg, so maybe not.

    6) Former NFL running back Isaiah Pead lost part of his left leg in a car accident couple years ago; he was running Saturday, wearing a prosthetic lower left leg for the first time. The smile on his face said a lot. Pretty cool.

    5) Wow there aren’t many catchers who can hit the ball; in my 16-team fantasy league, if you have a backstop who can hit, its a pretty big edge. Half the teams in my league don’t even have a backup behind the plate.

    4) Cardinals 8, Cubs 6 (10)— Marcell Ozuna tied game with a 2-run single in bottom of 9th, then Kolten Wong sent everyone home happy with a walk-off tater in the 10th inning.

    3) Celtics 101, 76ers 98 OT— 76ers have been favored in all three games of this series, but lost all three to a team playing without its two best players.

    Philly’s (lack of) basketball IQ hurt them here, as Ben Simmons got an offensive rebound with 0:18 left and his team winning but shot the ball instead of pulling it out and making the Celtics foul him, or someone else.

    2) Umpires who call highest %age of strikes (when starting P is in game):
    Foster 20.9%, Culbreth 20.8%, Lentz 20.6%, Hernandez 20.4%

    1— Umpires who call lowest %age of strikes (when starting P is in game):
    Reynolds 14.1%, Holbrook 14.8%, Barksdale 15.2%, Bucknor 15.5%

  3. #3
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    Sunday's NBA Playoffs betting preview and odds

    Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs continues Sunday, as the top Western Conference teams look to take a 3-1 stranglehold in their respective series. The Golden State Warriors will try to bounce back after dropping the first game in New Orleans, while the Rockets look to take another game from the Jazz in Utah.

    Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans (+5.5, 231.5)

    Warriors lead series 2-1

    Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans hope to match their last performance when they host the defending champion Golden State Warriors for Game 4 of the Western Conference semifinal series Sunday afternoon. Davis registered 33 points, 18 rebounds and four steals while the Pelicans limited the Warriors to 38 percent shooting with suffocating defense for a decisive 119-100 victory Friday.

    TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

    SERIES PRICE (PER PINNACLE):



    BETTING ACTION AND LINE MOVES: The Pellies hit the board for Game 4 as 4.5-point home favorites, but they have been quickly faded to +5.5. That could mean some early sharp action on the Dubs, with 55 percent of wagers on New Orleans according to our consensus. The total once again opened at a sky-high 232, but has come down a half-point to the current number of 231.5

    INJURY REPORT:

    Warriors - SG Patrick McCaw (Out, back), SF Chris Boucher (Out, ankle).

    Pelicans - C DeMarcus Cousins (Out, achilles), C Alexis Ajinca (Out, knee), PG Frank Jackson (Out, foot).

    ABOUT THE WARRIORS (64-26, 38-51-1 ATS, 43-46-1 O/U): Klay Thompson led the way with 26 points for the Warriors on Friday while Kevin Durant added 22 and Stephen Curry 19, making just 6-of-19 from the field, but it was more about New Orleans aggression being much better than Golden State’s work in the defensive end. Curry moved back into the starting lineup Friday in his second game back from an MCL sprain that kept him out more than a month, but connected on just 3-of-9 from 3-point range after making 5-of-10 in Tuesday’s 28-point performance. Forward Draymond Green is averaging a triple-double in the series (15.7 points, 12 rebounds, 10.7 assists) while Durant leads the team in scoring during the playoffs at 27.3.

    ABOUT THE PELICANS (53-36, 51-37-1 ATS, 51-38 O/U): The Pelicans put more pressure on Golden State’s shooters after allowing 122 points per game in the first two of the series and drained 50 percent of their shots from the field - 14-of-31 from 3-point range - to pull away. Veteran point guard Rajon Rondo dished out 21 assists in Friday’s victory and is averaging 13.9 in the playoffs with at least nine in all seven games during the postseason. Davis is averaging 26.3 points and 14.3 rebounds while shooting 50.7 percent from the field in the series while point guard Jrue Holiday scored 45 points combined in the last two games.

    MATCHUP CHART:



    TRENDS:

    * Warriors are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games playing on one days rest.
    * Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.
    * Under is 4-1 in Warriors last five road games.
    * Over is 5-1 in Pelicans last six games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
    * Warriors are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in New Orleans.




    Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz (+5, 209)

    Rockets lead series 2-1

    The Houston Rockets responded to a rare loss with an impressive display of basketball in Game 3 of their Western Conference semifinal series with the Utah Jazz and look to take a 3-1 series lead when the teams meet in Salt Lake City on Sunday. After the Jazz triumphed 116-108 in Game 2 to temporarily wrest home-court advantage from the top-seeded Rockets, Houston answered in convincing fashion when the series shifted to Utah.

    TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT

    SERIES PRICE (PER PINNACLE):



    BETTING ACTION AND LINE MOVES: The Jazz opened Game 4 as 5-point underdogs and that's were the number remains as of Saturday night. That's not too surprising, with the Jazz seeing a slight 52 perecent edge in the public action according to our consensus. The total hit hte board at 208.5 and is up a half-point to 209. Seventy-one percent of public bets are on the Over.

    INJURY REPORT:

    Rockets - No injuries to report.

    Jazz - PG Ricky Rubio (Questionable, hamstring), SF Thabo Sefolosha (Out, knee).

    ABOUT THE ROCKETS (71-19, 46-43-1 ATS, 37-52-1 O/U): James Harden scored 25 points and handed out 12 assists in the 113-92 rout as the Rockets opened a 30-point halftime lead and cruised from there. A big factor in Houston's turnaround was the stroke of shooting guard Eric Gordon, who was 8-of-13 from the floor in Game 3 after shooting under 50 percent in each of his first seven games this postseason. Harden and Chris Paul combined for 18 assists against one turnover in Game 3. Including the regular season, Houston has won all three meetings in Utah by double digits.

    ABOUT THE JAZZ: (53-38, 47-44 ATS, 43-47-1 O/U): Guard Donovan Mitchell has taken a leadership role as a rookie for Utah and knows he needs to improve on a 10-point effort on 4-of-16 shooting. Point guard Ricky Rubio (hamstring) has been doing some agility drills and light work on the court as he approaches a potential return, and Utah has another injury concern in the form of Derrick Favors, who left Game 3 with a sprained ankle. Favors hopes to play in Game 4. The Jazz will look for a bounce-back effort from Joe Ingles after he followed up a 27-point effort in Game 2 with a six-point showing in Friday's loss.

    MATCHUP CHART:



    TRENDS:

    * Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
    * Jazz are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
    * Over is 7-3 in Rockets last 10 vs. a team with a winning SU record.
    * Rockets are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
    * Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

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    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Sunday, May 6


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    GOLDEN STATE (64 - 26) at NEW ORLEANS (53 - 36) - 5/6/2018, 3:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    GOLDEN STATE is 37-50 ATS (-18.0 Units) in all games this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 36-45 ATS (-13.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 46-69 ATS (-29.9 Units) in road games on Sunday games since 1996.
    GOLDEN STATE is 18-31 ATS (-16.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
    NEW ORLEANS is 51-37 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games this season.
    NEW ORLEANS is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) against Pacific division opponents this season.
    NEW ORLEANS is 24-15 ATS (+7.5 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 60-39 ATS (+17.1 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
    GOLDEN STATE is 62-37 ATS (+21.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ORLEANS is 7-7 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
    GOLDEN STATE is 12-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
    10 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    HOUSTON (71 - 19) at UTAH (53 - 38) - 5/6/2018, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    UTAH is 98-67 ATS (+24.3 Units) on Sunday games since 1996.
    UTAH is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
    HOUSTON is 26-17 ATS (+7.3 Units) in road games this season.
    HOUSTON is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) against Northwest division opponents this season.
    HOUSTON is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    HOUSTON is 9-5 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
    HOUSTON is 9-5 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
    9 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Sunday, May 6


    Warriors (3-0) @ Pelicans
    Pelicans were 14-31 on arc in 119-100 game 3 win; they outscored Warriors 57-44 in second half, as Curry went 6-19 from floor in his first start since March 23. Davis had 33 points, 18 boards, while Rondo had 21 assists, 10 rebounds for Pelicans. Golden State won 11 of last 13 games with New Orleans; Pelicans are 7-4 vs spread in last 11 series games. Over is 10-3 in last 13 series games. New Orleans won 10 of last 12 games overall, covering 11 of the 12 games. Golden State is 4-5 SU in its last nine road games; over is 7-5 in their last dozen games overall.

    Rockets (2-1) @ Jazz
    Houston led 70-40 at halftime of easy Game 3 win; hard for Jazz to keep up with fast-paced Rockets with its PG Rubio (hamstring) out injured. Rockets won/covered six of last seven games with Utah; they won last three visits to SLC by 11-11-21 points. Over is 9-4 in last 13 series games, 4-2 in Houston’s last six games overall. Jazz won seven of last eight home games, but they’re -18 (33-15) in turnovers the last two games.

    Second Round
    Pelicans-Warriors

    GState 123-101, -7.5, O223.5
    GState 121-116, -11, O229
    NO 119-100, +5, U232.5

    Jazz-Rockets
    Hst 110-96, -11.5, U206.5
    Utah 116-108, +10.5, O205
    Hst 113-92, -4.5, U209.5

    76ers-Celtics
    Bos 117-101, +5, O205
    Bos 108-103, +3.5, O206.5
    Bos 101-98 OT, +9.5, U206.5

    Cavaliers-Raptors
    Clev 113-112 OT +7, O213.5
    Clev 128-110, +7, O213.5
    Clev 105-103, -4.5, U214.5




    NBA

    Sunday, May 6


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Golden State Warriors
    Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Golden State is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
    Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Golden State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Golden State's last 9 games on the road
    Golden State is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games when playing New Orleans
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
    Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
    Golden State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
    New Orleans Pelicans
    New Orleans is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games
    New Orleans is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
    New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games at home
    New Orleans is 2-16 SU in its last 18 games when playing Golden State
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Golden State
    New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State
    New Orleans is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Golden State
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Golden State


    Houston Rockets
    Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Houston's last 16 games
    Houston is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Houston is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
    Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Utah
    Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Utah
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games when playing Utah
    Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Utah
    Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah
    Utah Jazz
    Utah is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Utah is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games
    Utah is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Utah is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
    Utah is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Houston
    Utah is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Houston
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Utah's last 10 games when playing Houston
    Utah is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
    Utah is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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    NBA
    Dunkel

    Sunday, May 6



    Golden State @ New Orleans

    Game 705-706
    May 6, 2018 @ 3:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Golden State
    129.350
    New Orleans
    120.703
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Golden State
    by 8 1/2
    225
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Golden State
    by 5 1/2
    231 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Golden State
    (-5 1/2); Under

    Houston @ Utah


    Game 707-708
    May 6, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Houston
    128.558
    Utah
    121.771
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Houston
    by 7
    211
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Houston
    by 5
    209
    Dunkel Pick:
    Houston
    (-5); Over

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    NBA

    Sunday, May 6



    Dating back to last Monday, underdogs have covered 9 of last 10 NBA playoff games.

    Current 2018 NBA Playoffs betting stats:

    Home Teams:
    41-16 Straight Up
    32-24-1 ATS (57.14%)

    Favorites:
    42-15 Straight Up
    32-24-1 ATS (57.14%)

    Over-Under: 29-28

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