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Thread: Saturday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/28

  1. #1
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    Default Saturday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/28

    Trends and Indexes

    Saturday, April 28

    Good Luck on day #118 of 2018!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

    — Ole Miss transfer QB Shea Patterson is eligible to play at Michigan this fall.

    — AL Central is 21-49 outside the division so far this season.

    — Colorado Rockies won 1-0 in Miami Friday night, just their 20th-ever 1-0 win, which is the fewest in MLB since 1993.

    — Steelers drafted Oklahoma State QB Mason Rudolph; is he Big Ben’s successor?

    — New Pitt basketball coach Jeff Capel hired his brother Jeff as an assistant coach.

    — Jason Witten will retire from the Cowboys and be the analyst on Monday Night Football this fall.

    **********

    Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind…….

    13) Utah Jazz led Oklahoma City by 25 in Game 5 of their series before the Thunder came back and won Game 5 of their series.

    A guy in Las Vegas had $4,000 on the Thunder (-2.5); he tossed the ticket in the trash when Utah got up by 25, and he had to do some mad scrambling thru the garbage to get the ticket back after OKC stormed back for the win/cover.

    Luckily for him, a) the trash hadn’t been emptied and b) he found the ticket.

    12) In the 6th inning Wednesday nite, Tampa Bay Rays put a lefty reliever named Jonny Venters in to face lefty slugger Chris Davis. No big deal; that stuff happens over and over all throughout baseball. Lefty vs lefty. One batter. Venters retired Davis on four pitches.

    But this was different; Venters hadn’t appeared in a major league game in six years, or 2,008 games; he was 15-10, 2.25 in 230 games for the Braves from 2010-12.

    Since then, Venters has had three Tommy John surgeries on his left elbow; the hours and hours of rehab he went through—- there had to be times he thought Wednesday night would never come, but now he is back in the major leagues. Good for him.

    11) Carolina Panthers took WR DJ Moore with the 24th pick Thursday night; the kid had 8 QB’s in his three years playing WR at Maryland. Eight QB’s in three years is an awful lot.

    Norv Turner is the Panthers’ new OC; Cam Newton will be a fascinating follow this season.

    10) Eagles got an extra 2nd round pick in 2019 for dropping down 20 spots in this draft so the Ravens could take Lamar Jackson.

    9) Cal-Riverside has a new basketball coach (David Patrick); one of the Highlanders’ new assistant coaches is Mike Magpayo, who at one time was the CEO of a multimillion dollar real estate firm in SoCal.

    8) Seattle’s Jean Segura has come to bat with a man on 3rd base 10 times this season; he knocked that runner in all 10 times.

    7) Players who have come to bat with most men on base this season (thru Thursday):
    Khris Davis 94, Didi Gregorius 86, Giancarlo Stanton 85, Marcell Ozuna 84

    6) Players who have driven in the highest %age of baserunners this season (min 50 PA):
    Brad Miller 33.3%, David Peralta 32.4%, Preston Tucker 28.3%, Nick Ahmed, 27.8%

    5) Portland Trailblazers had an excellent season, going 49-33, but now they’ve lost their last 10 playoff games so you hope it doesn’t cost coach Terry Stotts his job.

    4) Dodgers/Kershaw were -$380 to beat the Marlins Wednesday night; they lost. Long time ago, I read something that said laying anything more than $-150 in baseball is a bad idea. Whether that is still true or not I’m not sure, but laying more than -$200 isn’t wise.

    3) Miami Dolphins drafted TE Mike Gesicki in the 2nd round; for some reason. NFL Network showed highlights of Gesicki playing high school basketball— he scored over 1,800 points in HS, which is nice, but its a football draft.

    2) It is April 28 and national baseball writers are already speculating on where stars on struggling teams or small market teams will be traded to. As an A’s fan, few things make my blood boil as quickly as this, like Oakland, Tampa Bay and the Orioles are bleepin’ farm clubs for the %$#@& rich teams.

    1) Umpire Will Little worked home plate in April 21’s Toronto-New York game, the 8th time in last four years Little has done the plate in a Bronx Bomber game. Here is how those games went:

    2015
    Bronx W5-2 @ Baltimore +$123 U9

    Bronx W3-1 @ Seattle -$115 U7

    2016
    Bronx W6-3 vs Tampa Bay +$103 O8
    Bronx W7-3 vs Kansas City -$130 O8

    2017
    Bronx W3-2 vs St Louis +$123, U8

    Bronx W3-2 vs Oakland -$145, U9.5
    Bronx W7-4 @ Baltimore +$121, O9.5

    2018
    Bronx W9-1 vs Toronto -$148, O9

    8-0, outscoring opponents 43-18, and they were an underdog four times. Not going to say another bleeping word except this: if you were a big league manager, would you want Will Little umping the plate in a game against the Bronx Bombers?

  3. #3
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    NBA
    Dunkel

    Saturday, April 28



    New Orleans @ Golden State

    Game 551-552
    April 28, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    New Orleans
    118.320
    Golden State
    129.873
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Golden State
    by 11 1/2
    228
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Golden State
    by 8 1/2
    222 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Golden State
    (-8 1/2); Over

    Milwaukee @ Boston


    Game 701-702
    April 28, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Milwaukee
    114.789
    Boston
    121.870
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Boston
    by 7
    191
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Boston
    by 4 1/2
    195 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Boston
    (-4 1/2); Under





    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Saturday, April 28


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NEW ORLEANS (52 - 34) at GOLDEN STATE (62 - 25) - 4/28/2018, 10:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    GOLDEN STATE is 132-97 ATS (+25.3 Units) in April games since 1996.
    GOLDEN STATE is 59-37 ATS (+18.3 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
    GOLDEN STATE is 61-35 ATS (+22.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
    NEW ORLEANS is 49-36 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games this season.
    NEW ORLEANS is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games this season.
    NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in April games this season.
    NEW ORLEANS is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
    NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games against Pacific division opponents this season.
    NEW ORLEANS is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 36-48 ATS (-16.8 Units) in all games this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 35-43 ATS (-12.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    GOLDEN STATE is 6-5 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
    GOLDEN STATE is 10-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
    8 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MILWAUKEE (47 - 41) at BOSTON (58 - 30) - 4/28/2018, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MILWAUKEE is 37-46 ATS (-13.6 Units) in all games this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 15-24 ATS (-11.4 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 153-192 ATS (-58.2 Units) on Saturday games since 1996.
    MILWAUKEE is 134-171 ATS (-54.1 Units) after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
    MILWAUKEE is 19-29 ATS (-12.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
    BOSTON is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) in all games this season.
    BOSTON is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
    BOSTON is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
    BOSTON is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
    BOSTON is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    BOSTON is 28-18 ATS (+8.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
    BOSTON is 31-17 ATS (+12.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 135-101 ATS (+23.9 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BOSTON is 11-6 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
    BOSTON is 10-7 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
    11 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Saturday, April 28


    Bucks @ Celtics (3-3)
    Home side won last eight series games, including all six this month; Bucks are 1-4 vs spread in their last five visits to Boston. Over is 6-2 in last ten series games (0-2 in last two). Milwaukee needs either Brogdon/Bledsoe to step up and be Bucks’ third double figure scorer. Bucks lost last four road games overall (0-4 vs spread)- four of their last five road games went over. Celtics won/covered five of last six home games, winning at home by 5-14-6 points in this series. Five of their last six home games went over.

    Pelicans @ Warriors (0-0)
    Golden State won nine of last ten games with New Orleans but Pelicans won last visit here April 7; this matters lot more now. Pelicans are 5-3 vs spread in last eight series games; they’re 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Oakland. Over is 8-2 in last ten series games. New Orleans swept Portland 4-0; they’ve won/covered their last nine games, five of which were on road. Warriors beat San Antonio in five games, winning home tilts by 8-15-21 points. Under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games. Curry’s status for this series is unknown.

    Wizards-Raptors
    Tor 114-106, -7.5, O211
    Tor 130-119, -7, O214
    Wsh 122-103, -1, O217.5
    Wsh 106-98, +1.5, U217
    Tor 108-97, -7, U216
    Tor 102-92, -2, U214.5
    Raptors win series, 4-2

    Heat-76ers
    Phil 130-103, -6.5, O212
    Mia 113-103, +6.5, U217
    Phil 128-108, -2.5, O213.5
    Phil 106-102, -4, U212.5
    Phil 104-91, -10, U215.5
    76ers win series, 4-1

    Bucks-Celtics
    Bos 113-107 OT, -4.5, O199.5
    Bos 120-106, -1, O200
    Mil 116-92, -5, O205.5
    Mil 104-102, -5.5, O203.5
    Bos 92-87, -4.5, U202.5
    Mil 97-86, -4.5, U201.5

    Pacers-Cavaliers
    Ind 98-80, +7.5, U212.5
    Clev 100-97, -8, U209
    Ind 92-90, -1.5, U209.5
    Clev 104-100, -1.5, U206.5
    Clev 98-95, -6.5, U206
    Ind 121-87, -1.5, O202

    Spurs-Warriors
    GState 113-92, -8, U209.5
    GState 116-101, -9 O205.5
    GState 110-97, -3.5, O205.5
    SA 103-90, +5.5, U206.5
    GState 99-91, -11, U204.5
    Warriors win series, 4-1

    Pelicans-Blazers
    NO 97-95, +5.5, U216.5
    NO 111-102, +6, U216
    NO 119-102, -3.5, O215.5
    NO 131-123, -6.5, O217
    Pelicans win series, 4-0

    Jazz-Thunder
    OKC 116-108, -4.5, O205
    Utah 102-95, +4, U206.5
    Utah 115-102, -5, O209
    Utah 113-96, -5, O208
    OKC 107-99, -2.5, U207.5
    Utah 96-91, –7, U207.5
    Jazz win series, 4-2

    Wolves-Rockets
    Hst 104-101, -11.5, U215.5
    Hst 102-82, -10.5, U212.5
    Minn 121-105, +6, O217
    Hst 119-100, -6, O217
    Hst 122-104, -12, O217
    Rockets win series, 4-1




    NBA

    Saturday, April 28


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Milwaukee Bucks
    Milwaukee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 19 of Milwaukee's last 23 games
    Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Milwaukee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 8 games on the road
    Milwaukee is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Boston
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 8 games when playing Boston
    Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
    Milwaukee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
    Boston Celtics
    Boston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Boston's last 10 games
    Boston is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
    Boston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games at home
    Boston is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Milwaukee
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 8 games when playing Milwaukee
    Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
    Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee


    New Orleans Pelicans
    New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 9 games
    New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans's last 9 games on the road
    New Orleans is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games when playing Golden State
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Golden State
    New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    New Orleans is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    Golden State Warriors
    Golden State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games
    Golden State is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
    Golden State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games at home
    Golden State is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing New Orleans
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
    Golden State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
    Golden State is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against New Orleans
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-28-2018 at 10:18 AM.

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    Saturday's NBA Playoffs betting preview and odds

    We get treated to the two greatest words in sports in Saturday night's NBA Playoff action "Game 7". The Bucks and Celtics play a win or go home contest, while the Pelicans and Warriors are the first second round series to tip off.

    Milwaukee Bucks at Bostons Celtics (-4.5, 195.5)

    Series tied 3-3

    The home team won the first six games of the first-round series between Milwaukee and Boston and Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo is out to change that pattern in Saturday's Game 7. The "Greek Freak" can add to his reputation if he can steer Milwaukee past the Celtics in Boston and into the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.

    TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT, FS Wisconsin (Milwaukee), NBCS Boston

    SERIES PRICE: OFF.

    LINE MOVES AND BETTING ACTION: The Celtics opened this win-or-go-home Game 7 as 4.5-poiny home favorites and that's where the number still sits. Game 7 opened with the lowest total of the whole series by two whole points at 197 after Games 5 and 6 went Under by an average of 20.3 points per game. The number is already down to 195.5 and even 195 at some shops. This seems to sharp money driving the action with 63 percent of wagers on the Over according to our consensus. Bettors are also giving the Celtics a slight edge, with 54 percent of wagers on them to cover the home chalk.

    INJURY REPORT:

    Bucks - C John Henson (Questionable, back).

    Celtics - PF Marcus Morris (Probable, thigh), PG Kyrie Irving (Out, knee), SF Gordon Hayward (Out, ankle), PF Daniel Theis (Out, knee).

    ABOUT THE BUCKS (47-41, 36-47-5 ATS, 50-37-1 O/U): Antetokounmpo recorded 31 points and 14 rebounds as the Bucks forced a Game 7 with Thursday's 97-86 victory as 4.5-point faves. Antetokounmpo scored 30 or more points on three occasions in the series but his aggressiveness was back at a star level on Thursday after he took just 10 shots in a Game 5 loss in Boston. The play of Antetokounmpo (26.3 points, 9.7 rebounds) and forward Khris Middleton (23.5 average) has been consistently good but the duo needs someone from the trio of guard Eric Bledsoe (12 points per game), forward Jabari Parker (10.2) and guard Malcolm Brogdon (9.8) to step up on Saturday.

    ABOUT THE CELTICS (58-30, 54-32-2 ATS, 47-40-1 O/U): Second-year shooting guard Jaylen Brown (20.5) is one of five Celtics averaging in double digits in the series with center Al Horford (16.8 points, 8.8 rebounds), guard Terry Rozier (16.2), small forward Jayson Tatum (14.7) and power forward Marcus Morris (13.8) being the others. Boston won its three previous home games in the series by an average of 8.3 points, covering the spread in each instance.

    MATCHUP CHART:



    TRENDS:

    * Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
    * Celtics are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a ATS loss.
    * Over is 7-1 in Bucks last eight road games.
    * Over is 6-1 in Celtics last seven home games.
    * Over is 10-2-1 in the last 13 meetings in Boston.




    New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors (-9, 224)

    The New Orleans Pelicans were surprisingly dominant in sweeping the third-seeded Portland Trail Blazers in the first round of the playoffs, but a much bigger challenge looms. The Pelicans will try to get an early advantage when they visit the defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals on Saturday.

    TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT

    SERIES PRICE (PER PINNACLE):



    LINE MOVES AND BETTING ACTION: The Warriors opened Game 1 of their second round series with the Pelicans as 7.5-point home favorites, but that number quickly moved to -9, where the line currently sits. And it seems sharp moneyis driving that action considering 68 percent of wagers are on the Pelicans according to our consensus. The total hit the board at 222.5 and has also been bet up to the current number of 224, which isn't surprising considering 62 percent of bets are on the Over.

    INJURY REPORT:

    Pelicans - C DeMarcus Cousins (Out, achilles), PG Frank Jackson (Out, foot), C Alexis Ajinca (Out, knee).

    Warriors - PG Stephen Curry (Questionable, knee), SG Patrick McCaw (Out, back), SF Chris Boucher (Out, ankle).

    ABOUT THE PELICANS (52-34, 49-36-1 ATS, 49-37 O/U): New Orleans superstar Anthony Davis averaged 33 points on 57.6 percent shooting and 11.8 rebounds in the four-game sweep of Portland and will look to keep rolling against the defending champs. Davis is the unquestioned leader of the team, but guards Jrue Holiday and Rajon Rondo and power forward Nikola Mirotic are keys to an offense that is running at high speed. Holiday averaged 27.8 points on 56.8 percent shooting against the Trail Blazers while Rondo averaged 13.3 assists.

    ABOUT THE WARRIORS (62-25, 37-49-1 ATS, 41-45-1 O/U): The Warriors knocked out the San Antonio Spurs in five games in the first round without star point guard Stephen Curry (knee), who is practicing with the team but remains a question mark for Game 1. Curry sat out the last 15 games with a knee sprain. Kevin Durant averaged 28.2 points in the first round to help cover some of Curry's lost scoring while shooting guard Klay Thompson averaged 22.6 points and shot 51.6 percent from 3-point range.

    MATCHUP CHART:



    TRENDS:

    * Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.
    * Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.
    * Under is 6-1 in Pelicans last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
    * Over is 4-1-1 in Warriors last six home games.
    * Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.

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