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Thread: Monday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/16

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    Default Monday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/16

    Trends and Indexes

    Monday, April 16

    Good Luck on day #106 of 2018!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

    — Idaho is the fastest growing state in this country.

    — Penguins 5, Flyers 1— Pittsburgh scored two goals 0:05 apart.

    — Mets 3, Brewers 2— Wilmer Flores hit a walk-off homer on a cold day in Queens.

    — Cardinals 3, Reds 2— Cincinnati is off to a 2-13 start this season.

    — Celtics 113, Bucks 107 OT— Milwaukee’s Khris Middleton sent game to OT with a 3-pointer at the buzzer of regulation.

    — Satoshi Kodaira won his first PGA tournament, beating Si Woo Kim in a playoff on Hilton Head. He started Sunday six shots out of the lead- it is 6th year in a row the winner of this tournament started the final round 3+ shots out of the lead.

    **********

    Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend

    13) Idea for a reality TV show: Pro teams do exit interviews with players after each season; would be television gold to see some of them, especially with disgruntled players, or with guys who are delusional about their abilities. Kind of like a postseason Hard Knocks.

    For instance, Cowboys/Dez Bryant exit interview in December must’ve been a good one.

    12) Los Angeles Angels used nine different starting pitchers in their first 15 games this year, the most by any team in their first 15 games since the 1960 Baltimore Orioles.

    11) Monday morning’s 11am Orioles-Red Sox game was postponed late Sunday afternoon, so no need to post your fantasy lineups early Monday. This is first time since 1984 the Patriots Day game was rained out.

    It also means I get to sleep later Monday morning ��

    10) Odd managing in the Brewers-Mets game Sunday; Mets led 1-0 in top of 5th inning, Brewers had a guy on 3rd with two men out, and pitcher Jhoulys Chacin was due up, you think they’d pinch-hit for him, but Chacin grounded out to shortstop. Since Chacin hit, you assume he’ll pitch the bottom of the 5th inning, right?

    Wrong. Milwaukee takes Chacin out after not pinch-hitting for him with the tying run on third base. Go figure. Must be an analytics thing.

    9) Boston media will be happy; Angels’ rainout in Kansas City Sunday means that Shohei Ohtani will make his next start against the Red Sox in Anaheim Tuesday night.

    8) Six baseball postponements Sunday; the only time in last 20 years with six postponements in one day was September 12, 2008.

    7) Oakland starting pitchers have finished the 6th inning in 3 of their 16 games; three times by Sean Manaea, zero times by everyone else.

    For the record, the A’s traded Ben Zobrist for Manaea, back when they helped he Royals win the World Series with that trade- now it is paying off for them.

    6) Saturday night in Dodger Stadium, Arizona’s Deven Marrero hit a home run, but passed the runner on first base, who was going back to tag up, thinking the ball might be caught.

    Play results in a 2-run single for Marrero, but he does not score because he passed a runner, so he was out on the play- that doesn’t happen very often.

    5) Matt Harvey hasn’t gotten an out in the 6th inning in any of his starts since May 28, 2017 vs Pittsburgh- thats 11 starts in a row. Harvey is a free agent after this season; good luck there.

    4) NFL Draft note: New England drafted a DL/LB with its first pick in five of last six drafts.

    3) Pacers 98, Cavaliers 80— Lebron James teams had won their last 21 first round playoff games, but that streak was ended rudely here.

    2) Twins had a miserable baseball-free weekend at home, with a foot of snow falling; now they head to Puerto Rico to play a couple of games with the Indians in San Juan.

    1) They had 23 inches of snow in Green Bay this weekend, in mid-April. Oy.

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    NBA
    Dunkel

    Monday, April 16



    Miami @ Philadelphia

    Game 701-702
    April 16, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Miami
    115.552
    Philadelphia
    130.453
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 15
    226
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 6 1/2
    215 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Philadelphia
    (-6 1/2); Over

    San Antonio @ Golden State


    Game 703-704
    April 16, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    San Antonio
    116.139
    Golden State
    128.208
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Golden State
    by 12
    214
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Golden State
    by 9 1/2
    205 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Golden State
    (-9 1/2); Over





    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Monday, April 16


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    MIAMI (44 - 39) at PHILADELPHIA (53 - 30) - 4/16/2018, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PHILADELPHIA is 49-34 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all games this season.
    PHILADELPHIA is 34-22 ATS (+9.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
    PHILADELPHIA is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) in home games this season.
    PHILADELPHIA is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
    PHILADELPHIA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) against Southeast division opponents this season.
    PHILADELPHIA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
    PHILADELPHIA is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    MIAMI is 90-71 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    MIAMI is 54-36 ATS (+14.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
    MIAMI is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
    MIAMI is 38-25 ATS (+10.5 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    MIAMI is 47-33 ATS (+10.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
    MIAMI is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    MIAMI is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    MIAMI is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
    MIAMI is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PHILADELPHIA is 7-5 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
    MIAMI is 7-5 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SAN ANTONIO (47 - 36) at GOLDEN STATE (59 - 24) - 4/16/2018, 10:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    SAN ANTONIO is 15-24 ATS (-11.4 Units) in road games this season.
    SAN ANTONIO is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    SAN ANTONIO is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
    SAN ANTONIO is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 130-95 ATS (+25.5 Units) in April games since 1996.
    GOLDEN STATE is 57-35 ATS (+18.5 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
    GOLDEN STATE is 25-8 ATS (+16.2 Units) in the first round of the playoffs since 1996.
    SAN ANTONIO is 1045-917 ATS (+36.3 Units) in all games since 1996.
    SAN ANTONIO is 142-109 ATS (+22.1 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
    GOLDEN STATE is 34-46 ATS (-16.6 Units) in all games this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 33-41 ATS (-12.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    GOLDEN STATE is 10-6 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
    GOLDEN STATE is 12-4 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
    8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Monday, April 16


    Heat vs 76ers (1-0)

    Miami led Game One 60-56 at half, then lost by 27, as 76ers made 18-28 on arc in winning their 17th game in row. Home side won last ten series games; Heat is 2-4 vs spread in last six games in this building. Under is 3-2 in last five series games. 76ers’ last loss was March 13; they’re 8-2 vs spread in last ten home games. Miami is 5-6 in its last 11 games; they’re 1-3-1 vs spread in last five road games. Miami starters other than Johnson shot combined 8-31 in Game 1; sub Olynyk scored 26 points in 31:00 off Heat bench.

    Spurs vs Warriors (1-0) 

    San Antonio is 0-8 vs spread in last eight road games; their last road cover was March 8, a 110-107 (+11) loss here in Oakland. Spurs lost Game One 113-92 here Saturday, as Thompson was 11-13 from floor, 5-6 behind arc. San Antonio lost nine of last ten games with Golden State; they’re 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Oakland. Warriors are 1-5 vs spread in last six home games. Game 1 was 57-41 at half, not much of a contest; Warriors had 51-30 edge on boards, shooting 45.3% from floor but also grabbing 10 offensive rebounds. No Curry or Leonard in this series.

    Wizards-Raptors
    Tor 114-106, -7.5, O211

    Heat-76ers
    Phil 130-103, -6.5, O212

    Spurs-Warriors
    GState 113-92, -8, U209.5

    Pelicans-Blazers
    NO 97-95, +5.5, U216.5

    Bucks-Celtics
    Bos 113-107 OT, -4.5, O199.5

    Pacers-Cavaliers
    Ind 98-80, +7.5, U212.5

    Jazz-Thunder
    OKC 116-108, -4.5, O205

    Wolves-Rockets
    Hst 104-101, -11.5, U215.5




    NBA

    Monday, April 16


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Miami Heat
    Miami is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
    Miami is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Miami is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Miami's last 13 games on the road
    Miami is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Philadelphia
    Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
    Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
    Philadelphia 76ers
    Philadelphia is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games
    Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
    Philadelphia is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games at home
    Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    Philadelphia is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami
    Philadelphia is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing Miami
    Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
    Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing at home against Miami


    San Antonio Spurs
    San Antonio is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
    San Antonio is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 6 games
    San Antonio is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    San Antonio is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 6 games on the road
    San Antonio is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Golden State
    San Antonio is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing Golden State
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing Golden State
    San Antonio is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    San Antonio is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 7 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    Golden State Warriors
    Golden State is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games
    Golden State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Golden State is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games at home
    Golden State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Golden State's last 12 games at home
    Golden State is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing San Antonio
    Golden State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Antonio
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing San Antonio
    Golden State is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against San Antonio
    Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Antonio
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 7 games when playing at home against San Antonio


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-16-2018 at 12:05 PM.

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    Monday's NBA Playoffs Betting Preview and Odds

    The opening round of the 2018 NBA Playoffs continues Monday night with two games tipping off tonight, including the Warriors looking to win their fifth straight playoff game against the Spurs.

    Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers (-6.5, 215.5)

    The Philadelphia 76ers' phenomenal 17-game winning streak now includes one playoff victory, the franchise's first in six years. The Sixers will try to make it two straight over the Miami Heat in their best-of-seven Eastern Conference first-round series when the teams meet in Game 2 on Monday in Philadelphia.

    After a slow start in Saturday's opener, Philadelphia outscored the Heat by a whopping 74-43 margin in the second half en route to a convincing 130-103 Game 1 victory. "I feel this group has something special in it," coach Brett Brown told reporters after his team made 18-of-28 3-pointers and recorded 34 assists against just 10 turnovers in a dominant effort. The last nine of the Sixers' 17 straight wins have come without All-Star center Joel Embiid (orbital fracture), who could return as soon as Game 2 or 3. The Heat will need to get more out of their own big man, as Hassan Whiteside provided just two points on 1-of-4 shooting in 12 lackluster minutes.

    TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT, FS Sun (Miami), NBCS Philadelphia

    SERIES PRICE (PER PINNACLE):



    BETTING ACTION AND LINE MOVES: The Sixers opened as 7-point home favorites and as of Monday morning that number is down to -6.5. According to consensus numbers 72 percent of the side wagers are on the favorites, so this is a little bit of reverse line movement. The total hit betting boards at 216.5 and has been dropped slightly to 215.5.

    ABOUT THE HEAT (44-39 SU, 40-37-6 ATS, 38-44-1 O/U): Whiteside has expressed displeasure at times with head coach Erik Spoelstra and the center seemed to display frustration over his limited minutes in Game 1. "It's not about him," Spoelstra told the media. "This series and this game, it's going to move quickly. It's not necessarily an indictment to his (play)." The play of another 7-footer, Kelly Olynyk, was perhaps another reason for Whiteside's limited contributions, as Olynyk scored a team-high 26 points on 9-of-13 shooting - including 4-of-5 from beyond the arc - off the bench.

    ABOUT THE 76ERS (53-30 SU, 48-33-2 ATS, 42-40-1 O/U): With Embiid sidelined, Philadelphia has been thriving on its many quality outside shooters, and the quartet of JJ Redick, Dario Saric, Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova combined to hit 15-of-23 long-range attempts in Game 1. "Whether Ersan comes in or Marco comes in, that's who we are," Brown told reporters. "That's what we're trying to coach here. And the guys have bought in. We play fast, we look for each other. The 3-point shot, without Joel, has become a real big part of our identity. We'll continue to do that. You have to do that or you won't win games when it matters." Rookie Ben Simmons was the one finding most of those shooters and he finished his playoff debut with 17 points and 14 assists.

    INJURY REPORT:

    Heat - SG Dion Waiters (Out For Season, Ankle).

    76ers - C Joel Embiid (Questionable, Face), SG Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (Out Indefinitely, Knee).

    MATCHUP CHART:



    TRENDS:

    * Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
    * 76ers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
    * Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
    * Over is 5-0 in 76ers last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.
    * Home team is 7-1-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings.




    San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors (-9.5, 205.5)

    The Golden State Warriors came into the postseason injured and slumping but quickly proved they can flip the switch to playoff mode with a dominating Game 1 win over the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday. The Warriors will try to keep the pressure on and get off to another hot start to make it a 2-0 cushion when they host the Spurs in Game 2 on Monday.

    Golden State dropped 10 of its last 17 games in the regular season and struggled on defense but tightened things up that end and held the Spurs to 17 first-quarter points to establish a lead it wouldn’t relinquish in Game 1. "Just wanted to put our best defensive lineup on the floor from the beginning," Warriors coach Steve Kerr, who inserted small forward Andre Iguodala into the starting lineup, told reporters. "I think the whole point of these games here early in this series is to re-establish our defense. I think you guys know, over the last month or so, our defense has been subpar. Can't win in this league in the playoffs unless you defend, and they defended tonight, and we went with our best defensive group." San Antonio's starting unit wasn't up to the task and only LaMarcus Aldridge (14 points) scored in double figures among the starting five. "I thought we were very prepared physically and mentally," Spurs coach Gregg Popovich told reporters. "But I was mistaken. As I said, we looked like deer in the headlights. The defense was really poor as far as following game plan of the first quarter, and it's a bad combination to play defense like that and not shoot at the other end."

    TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT, FS Southwest (San Antonio), NBCS Bay Area (Golden State)

    SERIES PRICE (PER PINNACLE):



    BETTING ACTION AND LINE MOVES: The Warriors opened as 9.5-point home favorites for Game 2 and as of Monday morning that number has not moved. Consensus numbers are showing a fairly even split with 55 percent of the side wagers on the Dubs. The total hit betting boards at 206 and has been dropped slightly to 205.5.

    ABOUT THE SPURS (47-36 SU, 42-39-2 ATS, 38-44-1 O/U): San Antonio shot 40 percent from the floor in Game 1 and managed only three offensive rebounds in the 113-92 setback. "We've got to regroup, feel hurt, upset, kind of desperate," guard Manu Ginobili told reporters. "We don't want to go home (down) 0-2. But at the same time, we've got to be smarter. Offensively, we're going to have to move the ball better, sharper, be more aggressive and see what happens. We are underdogs. We've talked about it. To get a win here, we've got to overachieve." Popovich started Rudy Gay in the second half over Kyle Anderson to generate more offense and could insert Gay into the starting lineup for Game 2.

    ABOUT THE WARRIORS (59-24 SU, 35-47-1 ATS, 39-43-1 O/U): Starting Iguodala over Quinn Cook left Golden State without a true point guard, leading to All-Star forward Kevin Durant running the offense. "It's not just one guy who has the ball all the time and making all the plays," Durant, who finished with 24 points, eight rebounds and seven assists, told reporters. "I think that's the beauty of our team, that all of us can go off and score 30 or get eight, nine assists or grab 11 rebounds. That's just the beauty of our team, and all of us chip in when it comes to facilitating and orchestrating." The Warriors recorded 32 assists on 44 made field goals in the win, led by forward Draymond Green's 11.

    INJURY REPORT:

    Spurs - SF Kawhi Leonard (Out For Season, Quadricep).

    Warriors - PG Stephen Curry (Late April, Knee), SG Patrick McCaw (Out Indefinitely, Back), SF Chris Boucher (Out Indefinitely, Ankle).

    MATCHUP CHART:



    TRENDS:

    * Spurs are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games.
    * Over is 5-0-1 in Spurs last 6 road games.
    * Over is 3-0-1 in Warriors last 4 home games.
    * Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Golden State.
    * Favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-16-2018 at 12:06 PM.

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    NBA Playoffs 4-point play: Best ways to bet Mondayís NBA odds

    Playoff basketball is a different beast, which is why we're taking a different approach to capping NBA action this postseason. Our daily NBA Playoffs 4-Point Play will look at the best ways to wager on that day's games, highlighting our favorite picks for sides, totals, props and alternative odds.

    Heat canít handle Coverington

    Miami is in trouble unless it can find a way to keep Philadelphia 76ers forward Robert Coverington away from Goran Gragic. The Heat point guard scored just one point in 22 possessions with Coverington guarding him Saturday, which was no fluke. Dragic made just nine of 26 field goal attempts during the regular season with Coverington defending him during the regular season according to The Athleticís Derek Bodner.

    Dragic is Miamiís leading scorer and coach Erik Spoelstra didnít play his second leading scorer, Hassan Whiteside, for the final 19 minutes of Game 1. Spoelstra didnít like the matchup of Whiteside guarding Ersan Ilyasova out on the perimeter.

    Bookmakers set the team total for Miami at 104.5. We think itís a good bet the Heat will struggle to score that many points in this contest.

    Pick your poison

    The NBA playoffs are all about adjustments and you can bet Spoelstra will have a few in mind for Miamiís game plan Monday. For all of Sixers rookie Ben Simmons talents he will never be accused of being a willing shooter - he attempted only 11 three-pointers and missed all of them during the regular season.

    Expect the Heat to force Simmons to play for his shot rather than the pass in Game 2. Miami will cheat off Simmons and play the passing lanes. Think of Greg Popovichís strategy with the Phoenix Suns back in the day when his Spurs forced Steve Nash to shoot instead of finding open teammates. Nash put up big scoring numbers but the Suns didnít win.

    Simmons Over/Under scoring total for Game 2 is set at 16.5. Take the Over here but stay away from the prop on total points, assists and rebounds.

    Popovich adjustments

    Itís pretty clear from Game 1 that the Spurs are overmatched in this series, but itís also apparent Gregg Popovich made some blunders in the first game rotations. San Antonio canít play Kyle Anderson in this series and it has to do a better job defensively of hiding Patty Mills.

    Expect Game 2 to be a little closer and Golden Stateís center rotation to score fewer than the 24 points it piled together on Saturday.

    Rudy Gay will play a bigger role

    Expect Rudy Gay to receive starter minutes the rest of this series. He started the second half for San Antonio in Game 1 and produced well at the offensive end and held his own defensively. The Spurs would be wise to run more pick and rolls with Gay and LaMarcus Aldridge with Danny Green and Mills on either wing for spacing. Bookmakers have Gayís Game 2 point total sent at 13.5. Take the Over.

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