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Thread: Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 4/12

  1. #1
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    Default Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 4/12

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, April 12

    Good Luck on day #102 of 2018!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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  2. #2
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    Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

    Odds to win the RBC Heritage Golf tournament this week:

    12-1— Paul Casey

    18-1— Matt Kuchar

    25-1— Hatton, Kisner, Leishman, Simpson, Smith

    33-1— Cantlay, Harman, List, Molinari, Poulter

    40-1— Grillo, Hoffman, Na

    50-1— Chappell, ZJohnson, Schniederjans, Moore


    **********

    Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…..

    13) Minnesota 112, Denver 106 OT— Timberwolves survive this game in OT, snap Denver’s 6-game winning streak and make the playoffs for first time in 15 years.

    12) Lot of angry baseball players Wednesday; fisticuffs in Denver and Boston. Awful early in the season for division rivals to be going at it, but thats what happened. Nolan Arenado wound up throwing punches and Tyler Austin looked like a guy in the WWE when he charged the mound at Fenway Park. Too cold for fisticuffs- you can break a bone punching a guy.

    Five players got tossed in Denver, three in Boston. These teams have a lot of games against each other the rest of the season. Will be interesting to see if the hostilities carry over.

    11) Trayce Thompson played CF for the A’s last night; he robbed former Dodger teammate Yasiel Puig of a home run with a leaping catch in front of the fence. Puig tipped his cap to Thompson as he jogged back to the dugout. Thompson hit 13 homers in half a season for the Dodgers two years ago— he is an intriguing prospect for Oakland.

    10) SI.com‘s Albert Breer touted the Ravens as a possible landing spot for Louisville QB Lamar Jackson; Joe Flacco is 33 and the Ravens missed the playoffs the last three years.

    What the Ravens really need is a new offensive coordinator; Marty Mornhinweg is hideous, but for some reason, they stick with him. 31 of 64 NFL coordinator jobs changed hands this winter, but this guy keeps his job. Baffling.

    9) NFL announced the 2018 preseason schedule Wednesday, which I don’t care about except that it means the regular season schedule announcement is only a week away.

    Bears-Ravens is the Hall of Fame Game in Canton on August 2.

    8) Brad Stevens is a damn good coach; Celtics went over their 53.5 win total for this season, despite losing Kyrie Irving for 22 games and Gordon Hayward playing five minutes the whole freakin’ season.

    7) 76ers 130, Bucks 95— Philly won its last 16 games as they head into the playoffs. Happy for coach Brett Brown, who endured a lot of BS and losing on his way to this point in his career.

    6) Knicks fired coach Jeff Hornacek after they got back to New York Wednesday night; they really need to fire their owner, but that’s not happening. Knicks lost 50+ games the last four seasons, which obviously ain’t good.

    Former Cleveland coach David Blatt is listed as a possible replacement.

    5) 2020 All-Star Game will be in Dodger Stadium; last time they had the mid-summer classic in LA was in 1980. Dodger Stadium is now the third-oldest stadium in the big leagues.

    From 1962-65, before Anaheim Stadium was built, the Angels also played in Dodger Stadium.

    4) Twins 9, Astros 8— Minnesota led 8-1 but the Astros rallied to tie this game, before Max Kepler ended things with a a walk-off HR, his second tater of the day.

    3) Baseball injury stuff:
    — Mets lose catcher Travis d’Arnaud with a torn UCL
    — Rangers’ SS Elvis Andrus broke his elbow when he got hit by a pitch.
    — Braves’ P Brandon McCarthy’s left shoulder appeared to pop out of joint as he covered first base in a game in Washington. The trainer popped the shoulder back in place— the out ended the 5th inning, but McCarthy didn’t return to the game. Weird injury.

    2) First round NBA playoff series:
    East: Celtics-Bucks, 76ers-Heat, Cavaliers-Pacers, Raptors-Wizards
    West: Warriors-Spurs, Blazers-Pelicans, Thunder-Jazz, Rockets-Wolves

    1) Only in today’s crazy world would 50Cent and MSNBC’s Ari Melber be on a Twitter video together talking about what happens if the feds charge you with a crime. Thats what popped up on my timeline today.

    Say Defendant A gets convicted of a crime and gets sentenced to 10 years in jail; according to 50Cent, Defendant A would serve 85% of that time, or 8.5 years. If you got nailed for 30 years, that puts you behind bars for 25.5 years, assuming time off for good behavior.

    Something to think about when you watch the news these days.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-12-2018 at 11:24 AM.

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    MLB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Thursday, April 12



    National League
    Pirates (8-3) @ Cubs (6-5)

    Williams is 2-0, 1.59 in his first two ’18 starts (over 1-1).

    Hendricks is 0-0, 4.09 in his first two ’18 starts (under 1-0-1).

    Pirates won eight of their first 11 games (over 8-3). Cubs won four of their last six games. Under is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.

    Cardinals (5-7) @ Reds (2-9)
    Wacha is 1-1, 5.59 in his first two ’18 starts (over 2-0).

    Romano is 0-1, 5.73 in his first two ’18 starts (over 2-0).

    St Louis lost three of its last four games; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven. Reds lost nine of their first 11 games; three of their last four games stayed under.

    Rockies (6-7) @ Nationals (6-6)
    Bettis is 1-0, 2.53 in his first two ’18 starts (over 1-1).

    Gonzalez is 1-0, 1.59 in his first two ’18 starts (over 1-1).

    Colorado lost four of its last six games; six of its last eight games stayed under. Washington lost six of its last eight games; four of their last five games stayed under.

    Giants (5-6) @ Padres (4-9)
    Stratton is 0-1, 5.23 in his first two ’18 starts (over 2-0).

    Mitchell is 0-1, 4.22 in his first two starts (over 1-1).

    Giants lost three of their last four games; six of their last eight games went over. Padres lost nine of their first 13 games; seven of their last eight games stayed under.

    American League
    Tigers (4-7) @ Indians (7-5)

    Fulmer 1-1, 0.68 in his first two ’18 starts (under 2-0).

    Bauer is 0-1, 2.08 in his first two ’18 starts (over 1-1).

    Tigers lost their last three games; their last five games stayed under. Cleveland won five of its last six games; their last seven games stayed under.

    New York (6-6) @ Boston (9-2)
    Gray is 1-0, 3.60 in his first two ’18 starts (over 2-0).

    Porcello is 2-0, 2.84 in his first two starts (over 1-1).

    New York lost four of its last six games; eight of their last nine games went over. Red Sox won nine of their last ten games; their last four games went over.

    White Sox (4-7) @ Twins (6-4)
    Giolito is 0-1, 6.17 in his first two ’18 starts (under 2-0).

    Berrios is 1-1, 3.29 in his first two ’18 starts (over 1-1).

    White Sox lost seven of their last nine games; under is 3-1 in their last four road games. Twins won six of their last nine games; under is 3-2 in their last five.

    Angels (10-3) @ Royals (3-7)
    Looks like a bullpen game for the red-hot Angels.

    Kennedy is 1-0, 0.75 in his first two ’18 starts.

    Angels won ten of their last 12 games; over is 5-2 in their road games. Royals are 1-4 at home; six of their last eight games stayed under.

    Teams’ records in first five innings:
    Team (road-home-total)- thru 4/11/18
    Ariz 3-2-1…5-0-1……..8-2-2
    Atl 3-3……3-2-1……..6-5-1
    Cubs 3-4-2……0-1-1…..3-5-3
    Reds 1-6………1-3……..2-9
    Colo 3-3-1……2-2-1……5-5-2
    LA 1-3-1…..3-2-1……..4-5-2
    Miami 0-2-1…..3-3-3……..3-5-4
    Milw 5-1…….2-5………..7-6
    Mets 3-3……2-1-2………4-4-2
    Philly 1-1-3…..3-1-1……..4-2-4
    Pitt 4-0-1….6-0……….10-0-1
    St. Louis 4-2…….2-4……….6-6
    SD 2-2-2…..1-5-1……..3-7-2
    SF 1-2-1…..2-4-1……..3-6-2
    Wash 4-2……..3-3………7-5

    Orioles 2-3-2…….1-3-2……3-6-4
    Boston 3-0-3……..2-2-1……5-2-4
    White Sox 3-2………1-5………4-7
    Cleveland 2-2-2……4-1-1…….6-3-3
    Detroit 2-4………1-4………3-8
    Astros 3-3-1……3-2-1…….6-5-2
    KC 2-2-1……2-2-1…….4-4-2
    Angels 6-0-1……2-3-1…….8-3-2
    Twins 2-2-1……2-2-1…….4-4-2
    NYY 4-1-1……3-1-2…….7-2-3
    A’s 3-2………1-5-2……4-7-2
    Seattle 4-2-1……1-1-1……5-3-2
    TB 4-3-1…..0-2-2…….4-5-3
    Texas 2-1-1……..2-8……..4-9-1
    Toronto 3-2-1……1-5-1…….4-7-2

    %age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total- 4/11/18)
    Ariz 3-6……..4-6………..7
    Atl 2-6……..3-6………..5
    Cubs 1-9……..1-2………..2
    Reds 1-7……..0-4………..1
    Colo 3-7……..2-6..……….5
    LA 1-5……..2-6..………3
    Miami 1-3……..3-9…………4
    Milw 2-6……..0-7…..…….2
    Mets 1-6……..3-5…………4
    Philly 1-5……..4-6…………5
    Pitt 0-5……..3-6…………3
    StL 1-5……..1-6………..2
    SD 1-6……..0-7…………1
    SF 0-4………2-7……….2
    Wash 5-6……..4-6………..9

    Orioles 3-7……..0-6………..3
    Boston 1-6……..4-5………..5
    White Sox 0-5…….2-6………..2
    Clev 1-6……..1-6……….2
    Detroit 1-6…….0-5………..1
    Astros 2-7……..2-4……….4
    KC 1-5……..3-5………..4
    Angels 4-7……..2-5……….6
    Twins 1-5……..0-5……….1
    NYY 2-6……..3-6……….5
    A’s 2-5……..0-8………2
    Seattle 4-7…….1-3……….5
    TB 3-8…….0-4……….3
    Texas 0-4……..2-10…….2
    Toronto 2-6……..1-7………3

    Interleague play- 2018
    NL @ AL– 4-2 NL, favorites +$9
    AL @ NL– 2-2 , favorites -$112
    Total: 6-4 NL, favorites -$103

    Totals in interleague games
    NL @ AL: Under 4-2
    AL @ NL: Under 2-2
    Total: Under 6-4
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-12-2018 at 11:28 AM.

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    MLB

    Thursday, April 12


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Pittsburgh Pirates
    Pittsburgh is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games
    Pittsburgh is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
    Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    Pittsburgh is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Pittsburgh's last 23 games on the road
    Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs
    Pittsburgh is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Chi Cubs
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing Chi Cubs
    Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
    Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
    Chicago Cubs
    Chi Cubs is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Chi Cubs is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    Chi Cubs is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Chi Cubs is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games at home
    Chi Cubs is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
    Chi Cubs is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
    Chi Cubs is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Pittsburgh
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
    Chi Cubs is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
    Chi Cubs is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh


    Detroit Tigers
    Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Detroit is 6-18 SU in its last 24 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games
    Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Detroit is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
    Detroit is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Cleveland
    Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
    Detroit is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
    Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
    Cleveland Indians
    Cleveland is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games
    Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games
    Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home
    Cleveland is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Detroit
    Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Detroit
    Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
    Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit


    St. Louis Cardinals
    St. Louis is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games
    St. Louis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    St. Louis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    St. Louis is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
    St. Louis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
    St. Louis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
    St. Louis is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
    St. Louis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
    Cincinnati Reds
    Cincinnati is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
    Cincinnati is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games at home
    Cincinnati is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing St. Louis
    Cincinnati is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing St. Louis
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing St. Louis
    Cincinnati is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games when playing at home against St. Louis
    Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis
    Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis


    Colorado Rockies
    Colorado is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
    Colorado is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games
    Colorado is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Colorado is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Colorado's last 9 games on the road
    Colorado is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington
    Colorado is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Colorado's last 11 games when playing Washington
    Colorado is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
    Colorado is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
    Washington Nationals
    Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
    Washington is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
    Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Washington is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games at home
    Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Colorado
    Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Colorado
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 11 games when playing Colorado
    Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Colorado
    Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Colorado


    New York Yankees
    NY Yankees is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games
    NY Yankees is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    NY Yankees is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games
    NY Yankees is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games on the road
    NY Yankees is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games when playing Boston
    NY Yankees is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Boston
    NY Yankees is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Boston
    NY Yankees is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
    NY Yankees is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of NY Yankees's last 12 games when playing on the road against Boston
    Boston Red Sox
    Boston is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games
    Boston is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home
    Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games at home
    Boston is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games when playing NY Yankees
    Boston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
    Boston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
    Boston is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
    Boston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Boston's last 12 games when playing at home against NY Yankees


    Chicago White Sox
    Chi White Sox is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
    Chi White Sox is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chi White Sox's last 11 games on the road
    Chi White Sox is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Minnesota
    Chi White Sox is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
    Chi White Sox is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
    Chi White Sox is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chi White Sox's last 9 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
    Minnesota Twins
    Minnesota is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
    Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Minnesota is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games at home
    Minnesota is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Chi White Sox
    Minnesota is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Chi White Sox
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Chi White Sox
    Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
    Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox


    Los Angeles Angels
    LA Angels is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
    LA Angels is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 6 games
    LA Angels is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    LA Angels is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games on the road
    LA Angels is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Kansas City
    LA Angels is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Kansas City
    LA Angels is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
    LA Angels is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Angels's last 7 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
    Kansas City Royals
    Kansas City is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
    Kansas City is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City's last 9 games
    Kansas City is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    Kansas City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games at home
    Kansas City is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing LA Angels
    Kansas City is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing LA Angels
    Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Angels
    Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Angels
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games when playing at home against LA Angels


    San Francisco Giants
    San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    San Francisco is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games
    San Francisco is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games on the road
    San Francisco is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games when playing San Diego
    San Francisco is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing San Diego
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing San Diego
    San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego
    San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing on the road against San Diego
    San Diego Padres
    San Diego is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    San Diego is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego's last 7 games
    San Diego is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    San Diego is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games at home
    San Diego is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games when playing San Francisco
    San Diego is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing San Francisco
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games when playing San Francisco
    San Diego is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
    San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games when playing at home against San Francisco


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-12-2018 at 11:29 AM.

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    MLB
    Dunkel

    Thursday, April 12



    Pittsburgh @ Chicago Cubs

    Game 901-902
    April 12, 2018 @ 2:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Pittsburgh
    (Williams) 14.958
    Chicago Cubs
    (Hndrcks) 16.412
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Chicago Cubs
    by 1 1/2
    13
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Chicago Cubs
    -165
    No Total
    Dunkel Pick:
    Chicago Cubs
    (-165); N/A

    St. Louis @ Cincinnati


    Game 903-904
    April 12, 2018 @ 6:40 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    St. Louis
    (Wacha) 15.549
    Cincinnati
    (Romano) 14.018
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    St. Louis
    by 1 1/2
    7
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    St. Louis
    -145
    9
    Dunkel Pick:
    St. Louis
    (-145); Under

    Colorado @ Washington


    Game 905-906
    April 12, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Colorado
    (Bettis) 15.545
    Washington
    (Gnzalez) 14.082
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Colorado
    by 1 1/2
    11
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Washington
    -175
    8
    Dunkel Pick:
    Colorado
    (+155); Over

    San Francisco @ San Diego


    Game 907-908
    April 12, 2018 @ 10:10 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    San Francisco
    (Stratton) 14.125
    San Diego
    (Mitchell) 15.559
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    San Diego
    by 1 1/2
    9
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    San Francisco
    -135
    7 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    San Diego
    (+115); Over

    Detroit @ Cleveland


    Game 909-910
    April 12, 2018 @ 6:10 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Detroit
    (Fulmer) 15.670
    Cleveland
    (Bauer) 14.659
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Detroit
    by 1
    9
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Cleveland
    -175
    7 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Detroit
    (+155); Over

    NY Yankees @ Boston


    Game 911-912
    April 12, 2018 @ 7:10 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    NY Yankees
    (Gray) 17.652
    Boston
    (Porcello) 16.134
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    NY Yankees
    by 1 1/2
    11
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Boston
    -115
    9
    Dunkel Pick:
    NY Yankees
    (-105); Over

    Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota


    Game 913-914
    April 12, 2018 @ 8:10 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Chicago White Sox
    (Giolito) 14.576
    Minnesota
    (Berrios) 16.789
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Minnesota
    by 2
    10
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Minnesota
    -175
    8 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Minnesota
    (-175); Over

    LA Angels @ Kansas City


    Game 915-916
    April 12, 2018 @ 8:15 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Angels
    (Trpeano) 00.000
    Kansas City
    (Kennedy) 00.000
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Angels

    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Angels

    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Angels
    ( );
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-12-2018 at 11:30 AM.

  6. #6
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    MLB
    Long Sheet

    Thursday, April 12


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PITTSBURGH (8 - 3) at CHICAGO CUBS (6 - 5) - 2:20 PM
    TREVOR WILLIAMS (R) vs. KYLE HENDRICKS (R)
    Top Trends for this game.
    PITTSBURGH is 33-22 (+16.2 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
    CHICAGO CUBS are 1701-1767 (-269.5 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
    CHICAGO CUBS are 362-304 (-84.2 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997.
    CHICAGO CUBS are 907-824 (-159.5 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
    CHICAGO CUBS are 423-381 (-85.0 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997.
    CHICAGO CUBS are 41-41 (-23.7 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
    CHICAGO CUBS are 37-33 (-17.2 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
    CHICAGO CUBS are 52-49 (-19.4 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
    CHICAGO CUBS are 17-21 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    HENDRICKS is 3-9 (-11.3 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PITTSBURGH is 1-1 (+0.4 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

    TREVOR WILLIAMS vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
    WILLIAMS is 0-2 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 5.27 and a WHIP of 1.683.
    His team's record is 0-3 (-3.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+0.9 units)

    KYLE HENDRICKS vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
    HENDRICKS is 4-2 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 3.23 and a WHIP of 1.168.
    His team's record is 6-4 (+0.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-6. (-2.8 units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ST LOUIS (5 - 7) at CINCINNATI (2 - 9) - 6:40 PM
    MICHAEL WACHA (R) vs. SAL ROMANO (R)
    Top Trends for this game.
    ST LOUIS is 37-45 (-16.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    ST LOUIS is 65-48 (+18.4 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
    ST LOUIS is 447-404 (+52.2 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss since 1997.
    CINCINNATI is 406-369 (-81.5 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    MICHAEL WACHA vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
    WACHA is 8-1 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 2.31 and a WHIP of 1.126.
    His team's record is 11-3 (+7.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 8-5. (+3.1 units)

    SAL ROMANO vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
    No recent starts.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    COLORADO (6 - 7) at WASHINGTON (6 - 6) - 7:05 PM
    CHAD BETTIS (R) vs. GIO GONZALEZ (L)
    Top Trends for this game.
    COLORADO is 248-443 (-83.7 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 since 1997.
    COLORADO is 450-712 (-138.9 Units) against the money line in road games in night games since 1997.
    WASHINGTON is 74-40 (+19.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
    COLORADO is 19-9 (+16.2 Units) against the money line in road games in April games over the last 3 seasons.
    BETTIS is 27-16 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
    WASHINGTON is 23-27 (-18.2 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    CHAD BETTIS vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
    BETTIS is 1-0 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 3.60 and a WHIP of 1.200.
    His team's record is 2-0 (+2.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.3 units)

    GIO GONZALEZ vs. COLORADO since 1997
    GONZALEZ is 4-0 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 3.58 and a WHIP of 1.229.
    His team's record is 4-1 (+2.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-2. (+0.8 units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SAN FRANCISCO (5 - 6) at SAN DIEGO (4 - 9) - 10:10 PM
    CHRIS STRATTON (R) vs. BRYAN MITCHELL (R)
    Top Trends for this game.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 69-104 (-36.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 28-57 (-25.7 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 12-22 (-13.6 Units) against the money line in April games over the last 2 seasons.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 11-31 (-17.8 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 100-122 (-35.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 47-70 (-28.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 24-44 (-28.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
    SAN DIEGO is 52-39 (+23.7 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons.
    SAN DIEGO is 57-65 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
    SAN DIEGO is 46-40 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
    SAN DIEGO is 24-14 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
    STRATTON is 6-0 (+7.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    CHRIS STRATTON vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
    STRATTON is 1-0 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 1.349.
    His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

    BRYAN MITCHELL vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
    No recent starts.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DETROIT (4 - 7) at CLEVELAND (7 - 5) - 6:10 PM
    MICHAEL FULMER (R) vs. TREVOR BAUER (R)
    Top Trends for this game.
    DETROIT is 68-105 (-34.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    DETROIT is 38-72 (-31.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
    DETROIT is 47-83 (-32.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 28-8 (+18.4 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 63-24 (+31.6 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CLEVELAND is 3-0 (+3.0 Units) against DETROIT this season
    3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.0 Units)

    MICHAEL FULMER vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
    FULMER is 2-2 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 6.04 and a WHIP of 1.816.
    His team's record is 3-2 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-0. (+4.0 units)

    TREVOR BAUER vs. DETROIT since 1997
    BAUER is 3-5 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 7.97 and a WHIP of 1.915.
    His team's record is 3-8 (-6.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-9. (-9.2 units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NY YANKEES (6 - 6) at BOSTON (9 - 2) - 7:10 PM
    SONNY GRAY (R) vs. RICK PORCELLO (R)
    Top Trends for this game.
    NY YANKEES are 20-35 (-15.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
    NY YANKEES are 18-31 (-15.3 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
    GRAY is 21-32 (-17.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
    GRAY is 6-19 (-13.6 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
    GRAY is 3-9 (-9.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
    GRAY is 0-8 (-8.9 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
    GRAY is 21-28 (-18.5 Units) against the money line after a win since 1997. (Team's Record)
    BOSTON is 691-618 (-79.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997.
    BOSTON is 373-294 (-46.2 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997.
    BOSTON is 8-13 (-9.9 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
    BOSTON is 398-349 (-96.3 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NY YANKEES is 1-1 (+0.0 Units) against BOSTON this season
    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

    SONNY GRAY vs. BOSTON since 1997
    GRAY is 1-4 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 4.93 and a WHIP of 1.211.
    His team's record is 2-4 (-3.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-2. (+1.9 units)

    RICK PORCELLO vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
    PORCELLO is 8-9 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 3.40 and a WHIP of 1.214.
    His team's record is 9-10 (-0.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-12. (-8.5 units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CHI WHITE SOX (4 - 7) at MINNESOTA (6 - 4) - 8:10 PM
    LUCAS GIOLITO (R) vs. JOSE BERRIOS (R)
    Top Trends for this game.
    MINNESOTA is 91-82 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 61-46 (+17.7 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
    CHI WHITE SOX are 19-12 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in road games in April games over the last 3 seasons.
    CHI WHITE SOX are 408-418 (+32.7 Units) against the money line in road games after a win since 1997.
    MINNESOTA is 97-125 (-47.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Thursday since 1997.
    MINNESOTA is 28-46 (-21.4 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 44-73 (-36.3 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    LUCAS GIOLITO vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
    GIOLITO is 0-1 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.000.
    His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

    JOSE BERRIOS vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
    BERRIOS is 3-1 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 2.13 and a WHIP of 0.947.
    His team's record is 3-1 (+2.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.1 units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    LA ANGELS (10 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (3 - 7) - 8:15 PM
    NICK TROPEANO (R) vs. IAN KENNEDY (R)
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    NICK TROPEANO vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
    TROPEANO is 0-0 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 3.38 and a WHIP of 1.876.
    His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)

    IAN KENNEDY vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
    KENNEDY is 1-4 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 4.37 and a WHIP of 1.229.
    His team's record is 2-4 (-2.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-1. (+2.9 units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-12-2018 at 11:32 AM.

  7. #7
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    MLB
    Dunkel

    Thursday, April 12



    LA Angels @ Kansas City

    Game 915-916
    April 12, 2018 @ 8:15 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Angels
    (Trpeano) 15.334
    Kansas City
    (Kennedy) 13.412
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Angels
    by 2
    8
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Angels
    -120
    9
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Angels
    (-120); Under

  8. #8
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    MLB

    Thursday, April 12



    Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

    Streaking:
    Ian Kennedy, Kansas City Royals (1-0, 0.75 ERA, $119)

    It’s been a long time since Kennedy teased baseball bettors with his marvelous 2011 campaign when he won 21 games and finished with 2.88 ERA for the Arizona Diamondbacks. The season was supposed to be the beginning of a prolonged prime of the former New York Yankee prospect but things didn’t work out that way.

    Kennedy had six unremarkable years for the Diamondbacks, Padres and most recently Royals before the start of the 2018 season. He’s looked fantastic after two starts this season with 13 strikeouts against just two walks in 12 innings of work. He was a big part of the reason the Royals won as +219 underdogs at Cleveland last Saturday. The Under is also 2-0 in Kennedy’s two appearances.

    Slumping:
    Sal Romano, Cincinnati Reds (0-1, 5.73 ERA, $21)

    The award for the worst starting pitching staff after the first two weeks of the season goes to the Cincinnati Reds. Cincinnati is dead last in team ERA for starting hurlers at 5.59. Romano, the man in the middle of the rotation, is part of the problem. The second-year righty owns a bloated 1.45 WHIP (walks + hits per inning) and has only one more strikeout (3) than home runs surrendered (2) in 11 innings of work.

    Thursday’s Top Trends

    * The Pirates are 6-1 in their last seven road games. +177 @ CHC.
    * The Under is 5-0 in the Tigers’ last five games. O/U 8.5 @ CLE.
    * The Cardinals are 11-1 in Michael Wacha’s last 12 starts vs. the Reds. STL -140.
    * The Under is 20-7 in Chad Bettis’ last 27 starts for the Rockies. O/U: 9 @ WAS.
    * The Over is 5-0 in the Yankees last five games. O/U:9 @ BOS.
    * The Angels are 6-0 in their last six road games.
    * The Under is 6-1-1 in the Padres’ last eight games.

    Weather Watch

    There’s no rain in the forecast for today’s MLB action but the wind is blowing out at a number of ballparks. The latest weather report says wind will be blowing straight out to center field (15 mph) during tonight’s game between the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals. The total opened at 8.5 but now sits at 9.

    There’s a similar situation at Kauffman Stadium with winds blowing out close to 17 mph for today’s game between the Los Angeles Angels and Kansas City Royals. No game odds have been posted as of this morning.

    And in San Diego the wind will be blowing toward home plate around 16.5 mph for tonight’s game between the Giants and Padres. The total is set at 8.

    Ump of the Day

    Chris Guccione: Home teams are winning at a 61 percent rate when umpire Chris Guccione is behind home plate. The home fans have left the ballpark happy in 39 of his last 64 games calling balls and strikes.He’s the home plate umpire in today’s game between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. The game is a coin flip in the eyes of oddsmakers with both sides priced at -110.

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    The Complete Game: It's the bullpen - not the bats - burning Yankees bets
    Rob Hansen

    The Yankees didn’t do enough in the offseason to address the limitations in their starting rotation to survive with bullpen numbers like these.

    Being a regular baseball bettor is certainly a strange beast. Just when you think you have Major League Baseball figured out, the baseball gods will throw you curveball after curveball and send countless wagers into the pockets of bookmakers.

    Clayton Kershaw is the third worst starting pitcher in all of baseball for bettors with a team win/loss record of 1-2 and costing backers -3.67 units in three starts (-$367 if you wagered $100 on each of his starts). His team, the Los Angeles Dodgers, are below .500 and are burning bettors more than any other team at -7.63 units. The New York Mets, on the other hand, are shocking the world at 10-1 (+10.5 units). Although, they're only a couple of numb fingers away from falling off the cliff.

    Week in review

    Sound the alarms! The sky is falling! The New York Yankees are only at .500 (-3.12 units) and in third place in the American League East!

    The expectations were very high for the Bronx Bombers and they've certainly been slow out of the gate. The strikeouts are piling up for their stable of young stud sluggers, but it was certainly expected that they would swing and miss a ton. Getting thumped 14-1 by the Boston Red Sox Tuesday was not in the game plan. But, ultimately, it’s only one loss and they rebounded nicely with a "scrappy" 10-7 victory Wednesday.

    The most alarming of their early-season issues is their bullpen, which was supposed to be the best in baseball. Heading into Thursday’s action at Fenway Park, the Yankees’ bullpen was third worst in the American League with an ERA of 4.93. They're 1 for 3 in save conversions and have allowed a major league-worst seven home runs.

    The Yankees didn’t do enough in the offseason to address the limitations in their starting rotation to survive with bullpen numbers like these.

    The other big statistical shocker two weeks into the season is the lack of offensive production in Cleveland. The Indians rank dead last in team batting average (.170), on-base percentage (.262), slugging percentage (.290), OPS (.552), and BABIP (.193). It’s staggering how far behind the Tribe are from the rest of the league - their BABIP average is an insane 63 points behind the second worst team (Detroit Tigers - .256).

    Things will, most certainly, improve as the season progresses – it’s a minor miracle that Cleveland is 7-5 (-0.88 units) and tied with the Minnesota Twins for first place in the AL Central. The Under is 9-3 in the Indians' first 12 contests.

    What to watch for this weekend

    The main event of the weekend will be Los Angeles Angels’ rookie sensation Shohei Ohtani's return to the mound. I warned you last week to keep an eye on him in his Sunday start at home against the Oakland A’s and he rewarded our attention by taking a perfect game into the seventh inning.

    This weekend, Ohtani gets another cushy start against the Kansas City Royals on the road. As of now, he's penciled to start opposite lefty Eric Skoglund Sunday. You’d have to imagine there will be some overreaction by oddsmakers and the Angels will likely open somewhere between -150 and -175 on the road.

    Speaking of an overreaction by oddsmakers, online sportsbook BetDSI.eu released their updated American League MVP futures this week and Ohtani was listed as the favorite to win the postseason award at +150. He was trailed on the list by Mike Trout (+200), Jose Altuve (+500), Didi Gregorius (+1,000), Carlos Correa (+1,500), Aaron Judge (+1,800), and others. It's a bit much having him as the MVP favorite after only two starts and 19 at-bats.

    Umpire watch

    We’re going to look at the early-season leaders in Over and Under results, and dig a bit deeper into the stat behind the totals.

    As I mentioned last week, I never place an Over/Under wager without first checking who's calling balls and strikes. Looking at an umpire’s Over/Under record is certainly helpful, but an umpire’s strike percentage is what causes me to pull the trigger on a total wager. For me, the threshold number is 63 percent: anything under 63 percent will approve an Over wager and anything over 63 percent will approve an Under bet.

    I dug into the umpire betting stats here on Covers and found some very interesting numbers that support this strike percentage threshold. When you look at the Top 10 Over umpires this season (there are 10 officials at 2-0 or 3-0), all of them are below 63 percent in strike percentage (averaging 61.59 percent) and their home runs per game are a staggering 2.966 average. When you look at the Top 13 Under umps (there are 13 officials at 0-2 or 0-3), seven of them possess a strike percentage at or above 63 percent (averaging 63.023 percent) and their home runs per game are a miniscule 1.475.

    The moral of this story is: if you check an ump’s Over/Under stats and they don’t support your play, don't stop capping there. Check their strike percentage and use the 63 percent threshold.

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