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Thread: Sunday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 4/8

  1. #1
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    Default Sunday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 4/8

    Trends and Indexes

    Sunday, April 8

    Good Luck on day #98 of 2018!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

    Odds to win The Masters today:

    Patrick Reed 6-5

    Rory McIlroy 7-4

    Rickie Fowler 7-1

    Jon Rahm 14-1

    Henrik Stenson 30-1

    Bubba Watson 40-1

    **********

    Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday

    13) Mets 3, Nationals 2— Washington 3B Anthony Rendon got called out on strikes his first two times up in Saturday’s game, both on marginal pitches; after the second strikeout, Rendon flipped his bat but didn’t say a word— umpire Marty Foster tossed him anyway, at which point Washington manager Dave Martinez came out and got himself tossed, too.

    Steven Matz threw 93 pitches in five innings for the Mets; 30 of them were called strikes by Foster and I’m telling you, it might be a very long time before another pitcher has 30 pitches called strikes in one game— I keep track of this stuff and I’ll let you know. It rarely happens.

    But that is why the Nationals were steamed during this game.

    13a) OK, I looked it up; I like to look things up. Seven times all of last year a pitcher got 30+ called strikes in a game. Seven out of 2,430 games.

    12) Astros 1, Padres 0 (10)- Alex Bregman hit an infield pop-up just in front of the plate with two out in the 10th inning; Eric Hosmer overran the ball, it fell untouched and Houston got a win in a highly unlikely way, with the winning run scoring from second. We might not see another ball like that fall untouched the rest of the season.

    11) AAF is a new spring football league that kicks off next February; Orlando is the first city to be named to the league, and Steve Spurrier is going to be their coach, which lends the league instant credibility.

    Spurrier coached the Tampa Bay Bandits in the USFL back in the 80’s.

    10) Mets 3, Nationals 2— Mets are off to a very strong 6-1 start. Last time the Mets started a season 6-1 was in 2006.

    9) Didi Gregorius’ stats, contrasted between Arizona and New York:
    2 years in Arizona: .241 BA, .682 OPS, 13 HR’s in 703 PA.
    3+ years in Bronx: .278 BA, .758 OPS, 57 HR in 1,780 PA.

    8) Re-watched Jon Gruden’s half-hour QB Camp TV show with Jared Goff today, done before the Rams picked Goff two years ago; those shows are great TV, but now that Gruden is coaching the Raiders, they’re gone for now.

    ESPN needs to find someone (Jaworski? Dilfer? Gannon?) to pick this show up and grill these young QB’s. Think it helps the players and it is fun/educational to watch on TV.

    7) Angels’ utility guy Nolan Fontana is the grandson of Lew Burdette, who was a really, really good pitcher for the Braves back in the 50’s/60’s- he was 203-144 in his career.

    6) Nuggets 134, Clippers 115— LA is 42-38, but they’re eliminated from playoff contention.

    5) There was only one birdie Saturday at the 11th hole at The Masters: Jeff Knox, the non-competing marker who played with Paul Casey.

    Saturday’s 3rd round scoring average of 71.264 was the lowest 3rd round average at the Masters since 1986.

    4) Giants 7, Dodgers 5 (14)— Andrew McCutchen went 6-7 and hit a walk-off homer in the 14th inning; not a bad night’s work.

    3) Lot of people got out of Puerto Rico after the hurricanes last summer; so many people left that they they’ve closed 283 schools on the island. Thats a lot of kids that are gone.

    2) Top three guys in the lineup for the New Hampshire Fisher Cats of AA Eastern League are the sons of three former big leaguers— Cavan Biggio, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

    1) Our thoughts and prayers go out to the Humboldt Broncos, a junior hockey team in western Canada whose bus was in an accident Friday- 15 people passed away. Very sad thing.

    Back in my college days, I was student manager of the basketball team; we spent lot of snowy nights in buses in places with hideous weather. My heart goes out to the friends and families.

  3. #3
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    NHL

    Sunday, April 8


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    Trend Report
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    Florida Panthers
    Florida is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Florida is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida's last 6 games
    Florida is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games on the road
    Florida is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    Florida is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Boston
    Florida is 5-19 SU in its last 24 games when playing Boston
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida's last 6 games when playing Boston
    Florida is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Boston
    Boston Bruins
    Boston is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
    Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Boston is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Boston's last 12 games at home
    Boston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Florida
    Boston is 19-5 SU in its last 24 games when playing Florida
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games when playing Florida
    Boston is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Florida


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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-08-2018 at 11:42 AM.

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    NHL
    Long Sheet

    Sunday, April 8


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    FLORIDA (43-30-0-8, 94 pts.) at BOSTON (50-19-0-12, 112 pts.) - 4/8/2018, 7:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    FLORIDA is 27-17 ATS (+6.8 Units) second half of the season this season.
    FLORIDA is 23-10 ATS (+11.1 Units) after a 3 game unbeaten streak over the last 3 seasons.
    BOSTON is 271-233 ATS (-152.5 Units) in home games second half of the season since 1996.
    BOSTON is 10-18 ATS (-12.7 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
    BOSTON is 22-26 ATS (-25.4 Units) in home games after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
    BOSTON is 34-40 ATS (-22.5 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BOSTON is 9-3 (+5.9 Units) against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
    BOSTON is 9-3-0 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
    7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.7 Units)

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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-08-2018 at 11:43 AM.

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    NHL
    Dunkel

    Sunday, April 8



    Florida @ Boston

    Game 1-2
    April 8, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Florida
    11.858
    Boston
    10.408
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Florida
    by 1 1/2
    7
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Boston
    -265
    5 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Florida
    (+225); Over
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-08-2018 at 11:44 AM.

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    16 NHL Betting Notes for 16 Stanley Cup Playoff Contenders
    Monty Andrews

    One of the most exciting tournaments in professional sports gets underway Wednesday as the Stanley Cup playoffs open with eight first-round matchups. Each series should produce plenty of thrilling moments - not to mention ample betting opportunities for those looking to add a little profit to their hockey-watching enjoyment.

    Here are the key betting notes for each of this year's 16 playoff participants:

    Eastern Conference

    Tampa Bay Lightning


    Everyone knows that officials tend to swallow their whistles in the postseason, making for tighter, lower-scoring games that lead oddsmakers to roll primarily with 5s and 5.5s on the totals side. But bettors should consider the Over when betting on the Lightning, who enter the playoffs having scored a league-best 196 goals at 5-on-5; in fact, only the Toronto Maple Leafs finished within 10 goals of the Lightning, who will finish with the most 5-on-5 goals by any team since the 2009-10 Washington Capitals.

    Boston Bruins

    It takes guts to bet on a team to win despite allowing its opponent to score first - that's why you'll usually get odds ranging from +170 to +190 on those plays. But the Bruins represent the strongest option to come through on that wager, entering the playoffs with a league-high 21 victories when surrendering the opening goal of the game. In fact, Boston's 21-17-6 record in games in which it allows the first goal is good for a .477 winning percentage that leads the NHL.

    Washington Capitals

    The Capitals are a healthy +1,000 underdog to win the Stanley Cup title, but they'll need to work on how they perform offensively when tied or ahead. Washington ranks among the worst teams in the league in net shot attempts at 5-on-5 in those two key areas, sitting at -182 attempts when tied and a positively dreadful -264 when playing with the lead. Consider live bets on the Capitals' opponent and take advantage of how shaky Washington has been in situations when not playing from behind.

    Toronto Maple Leafs

    The Maple Leafs are one of the top Eastern Conference contenders, thanks in large part to their success rate in close games. The Leafs have reeled off 25 one-goal victories this season, tied with the New Jersey Devils for the most in the league. Toronto has also won nearly 66 percent of all one-goal games in which it has been involved, second only to the Tampa Bay Lightning. If you like the Leafs to win, don't hesitate to take a shot on them prevailing by exactly one goal.

    Pittsburgh Penguins

    The Penguins continue to boast one of the most potent offenses in the NHL, and have been particularly adept at piling up the goals late in the game - making them the perfect play for the "last goal of the game" prop. Pittsburgh is the only team in the league to have scored more than 100 goals in the third period of games this season at 101 - and added another 12 in overtime - three more than the next-closest team. No team closes like the Pens - and that could lead them right to a Stanley Cup three-peat.

    Columbus Blue Jackets

    The Blue Jackets are +2,500 to win their first Stanley Cup in franchise history - but they won't even get out of the first round if they can't figure out how to make headway with the man advantage. Columbus has scored just 39 power-play goals while surrendering seven shorthanded tallies; that +32 differential on the PP is third-worst in the league, ahead of only the lottery-bound Edmonton Oilers and Arizona Coyotes. Bettors should give this major consideration when mulling over Blue Jackets totals wagers.

    New Jersey Devils

    That the Devils have won nearly 60 percent of their one-goal games is impressive - especially when you consider that they've been terrible in the faceoff circle. The Devils have won just 47 percent of their draws on the season, and join the Avalanche as the only teams in the league to draw less than 48 percent in all three zones on the ice. They've also lost more than 200 more faceoffs than they've won in tied or one-goal games. Ignore that one-goal win trend and avoid live-betting the Devils in close games.

    Philadelphia Flyers

    It took until the second-last day of the regular season for the Flyers to secure a playoff spot, but they could be a dangerous out. The Flyers have been the most prolific team in the league when it comes to winning two-goal games, going 13-5 in such situations - good for a 72.2-percent win rate. With nearly a third of their total victories coming by two goals - in an era where one-goal victories are all the rage - the Flyers might just be a sneaky good moneyline play either as the favorite or as the underdog.


    Western Conference

    Nashville Predators


    You won't find many weaknesses on the Presidents' Trophy-winning roster, which goes into the playoffs as a +400 favourite to hoist the Stanley Cup this June. But Nashville would do well to stay out of the penalty box; its 482 minutes, 49 seconds of shorthanded play is easily the most in the league, and its -42:53 PP/PK differential is better than only six other teams. That trend, combined with Nashville boasting a top-six penalty kill, suggests that the Under might be a prudent play until the Preds behave themselves.

    Winnipeg Jets

    The Jets have rewarded live bettors handsomely in more than one way this season. They've been the most successful team in the league at rallying from a first-period deficit, having won eight of 18 games in which they trailed after 20 minutes (44.4 percent). And when they lead after two periods, you might as well turn off the television - Winnipeg is a league-leading 42-1-1 when going into the third period with an edge. If the Jets trail after one period, or lead after two, you should leap on the live bet.

    Vegas Golden Knights

    Teams that score first are expected to win - in fact, oddsmakers generally offer odds between -200 and -300 on that prop, meaning you'll have to place a nice-sized wager to make a tidy profit. But the expansion Vegas Golden Knights - in addition to creating plenty of excitement on the Strip - have been a spectacularly strong play in this regard, winning nearly 83 percent of the games in which they've scored first; only the Lightning have been more successful. Lean on Vegas to prevail when opening the scoring.

    San Jose Sharks

    The middle period can feel like a bit of a drag sometimes - but the Sharks have made it a great time for bettors to hop on board. San Jose ranks ninth in the NHL with 89 second-period goals while allowing the fifth-fewest goals against in that frame (71). The Sharks also boast a plus-45-minute PP/PK differential for the month. The Sharks are +2,200 longshots to win the Stanley Cup, but they should win you a few second period props along the way - so bet confidently.

    Minnesota Wild

    Given the nature of NHL games, the third period is almost always the most prolific - and oddsmakers build that fact into their highest-scoring period odds, with the final 20 minutes carrying slightly lower odds than the other two. If you're looking for an edge here, look no further than the Minnesota Wild, who have scored the fourth-most third-period goals (94) while allowing the second-most (96). No team produces more late-game fireworks than the Wild - so lock in their third periods as the highest-scoring of the game.

    Anaheim Ducks

    The Ducks have perennially been among the NHL's biggest problem children - and this year is no different, which should give bettors pause when considering both results and totals. Anaheim was handed an average of 3.59 minor penalties per 60 minutes during the regular season, fourth-most in the league. Compounding things is the fact that the Ducks drew just 2.69 minors per 60 minutes, giving them the worst differential in the NHL. Look for that extra shorthanded time to limit Anaheim's live betting appeal.

    Los Angeles Kings

    Slow starts can sink a team - and the Los Angeles Kings know that better than anyone. The Kings have a reputation for emerging as legitimate Stanley Cup threats despite looking somewhat non-threatening during the regular season - but to do so in 2018, they'll need to get better in the first period. Los Angeles has just 52 first-period goals - third-fewest in the NHL - while boasting a -27 goal differential for the period. If you're looking for a solid choice for your first-period winner prop, look elsewhere.

    Colorado Avalanche

    A Saturday win over the St. Louis Blues vaulted the Avalanche into the final post-season spot in the Western Conference - but their playoff run won't last long if they can't improve in the faceoff dot. Colorado posted the worst faceoff success rate in the NHL this season at 44.2 percent - including a dreadful 43.6-percent mark in its own zone. That played a role in the Avalanche winning just 42.3 percent of their one-goal games - so steer clear of live-betting Colorado when the game is tied.

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