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Thread: Saturday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/7

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    Default Saturday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/7

    Trends and Indexes

    Saturday, April 7

    Good Luck on day #97 of 2018!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

    — Pirates have 14 new players on their 25-man roster this season.

    — During the 7th inning of the Braves-Rockies game, it was 24 degrees in Denver.

    — Orioles 7, New York 3 (14)—- Pedro Alvarez hit a grand slam in the 14th.

    — 76ers 132, Cavaliers 130— Philly led by 30 points at one time, hung on.

    — Shohei Ohtani was 4-32 in spring training; he might’ve been playing possum. He’s homered in his last three games.

    — Indians 3, Royals 2— Only 4th game in last four years where both teams scored in first inning, then neither team scored again.

    **********

    Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind…..

    13) Did you ever want to compete in the Nathan’s hot dog eating contest on July 4 in Brooklyn? Here is your chance, if you’re going to be in Las Vegas three weeks from now.

    The Nevada qualifier for the annual July 4th International Hot Dog-Eating Contest is at 3 pm on Saturday April 28. The event will take place at New York-New York Hotel and Casino.

    “The launch of the annual Nathan’s Famous hot dog-eating contest circuit signals the arrival of summer. Some of the most accomplished eaters in the world will compete at this event, but we also are seeking new talent in Las Vegas to represent our nation on the most patriotic day of the year.”
    Scott Harvey, executive vice president of Nathan’s Famous.

    12) If you owned a baseball team worth around a billion bucks, would you let a 30-year old who was a sportswriter in college run the show? Nah, me either, but Milwaukee hired David Stearns as its GM when he was 30.

    Theo Epstein and Texas GM Jon Daniels got GM jobs when they were 28; I don’t get it. Because Epstein has won titles with the big market Red Sox/Cubs, now everyone is searching for the next Theo.

    The battle between old school thinking and the analytics movement continues, but right now, the analytics movement has the upper hand, as far as hiring goes.

    11) Lebron James is leading the NBA in minutes per game; he led the league in minutes played last year, too. Not bad for a 32-33 year old. Great, great player.

    10) Dodgers-Giants were rained out in San Francisco last night, just 6th rainout at AT&T Park and the first since Astros-Giants were rained out on April 12, 2006.

    9) The world’s largest Steak ’n Shake opened at Hooters Casino in Las Vegas Friday. There is also a good Steak ’n Shake at SouthPoint Casino. Steak ’n Shake is tremendous.

    8) One of the most underrated parts of a football coaching staff is the strength coach; players spend so much time getting stronger- they do it year round, so lot of times, they spend more time with the strength coach than their position coach.

    Tennessee Titans strength coach Steve Watterson is retiring after 32 years with the team; he was the longest-tenured strength coach in the NFL.

    7) 26% of money bet on NHL futures in Las Vegas this season is on the Golden Knights, so you know casinos will be rooting against the home squad when they playoffs start.

    6) Colorado Rockies’ TV announcer Ryan Spilborghs played seven years in the major leagues, made roughly $5M playing ball for the Rockies— he said on the air Friday that he still needs to pass one Spanish class to get his degree from Cal-Santa Barbara.

    5) Surprising fact: Coors Field in Denver is the 3rd-oldest stadium in the National League.

    4) Never saw this before: Lucas Duda was hitting in the first inning Friday for the Royals- he swings at a pitch, loses the grip on his bat and it flies out of his hands and winds up on the netting behind the plate.

    3) Not only has the Big 14 not won a college basketball national title since 2000, seven different Big 14 teams (half the damn league!!!!) has lost in the national championship game since then.

    2) According to the Cincinnati Reds’ PR people, Joey Votto has never gone more than 15 at-bats without reaching base safely.

    1— I had no idea the Secret Service has to pay for golf carts to do its security work when Donald Trump plays golf— I figured they’d be comped, since you know, they’re protecting the guy who owns the golf course. Secret Service has shelled out over $200,000 in cart fees since Trump has been President. Oy.

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    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Saturday, April 7


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    DENVER (44 - 35) at LA CLIPPERS (42 - 37) - 4/7/2018, 3:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA CLIPPERS are 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
    LA CLIPPERS are 168-211 ATS (-64.1 Units) in home games in the second half of the season since 1996.
    LA CLIPPERS are 226-275 ATS (-76.5 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
    LA CLIPPERS are 221-277 ATS (-83.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    LA CLIPPERS is 6-3 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
    LA CLIPPERS is 5-4 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    MILWAUKEE (42 - 37) at NEW YORK (28 - 51) - 4/7/2018, 7:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MILWAUKEE is 33-41 ATS (-12.1 Units) in all games this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 35-49 ATS (-18.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
    MILWAUKEE is 374-455 ATS (-126.5 Units) in the second half of the season since 1996.
    MILWAUKEE is 152-192 ATS (-59.2 Units) on Saturday games since 1996.
    MILWAUKEE is 134-97 ATS (+27.3 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
    MILWAUKEE is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW YORK is 15-24 ATS (-11.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW YORK is 6-4 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
    MILWAUKEE is 7-3 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    BROOKLYN (26 - 53) at CHICAGO (27 - 52) - 4/7/2018, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    BROOKLYN is 44-34 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
    BROOKLYN is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road games this season.
    BROOKLYN is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CHICAGO is 4-4 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
    CHICAGO is 5-3 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NEW ORLEANS (45 - 34) at GOLDEN STATE (57 - 22) - 4/7/2018, 8:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ORLEANS is 43-71 ATS (-35.1 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
    GOLDEN STATE is 128-93 ATS (+25.7 Units) in April games since 1996.
    GOLDEN STATE is 101-73 ATS (+20.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game since 1996.
    GOLDEN STATE is 61-34 ATS (+23.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
    NEW ORLEANS is 24-15 ATS (+7.5 Units) in road games this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 32-44 ATS (-16.4 Units) in all games this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 31-40 ATS (-13.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 14-25 ATS (-13.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    GOLDEN STATE is 6-4 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
    GOLDEN STATE is 10-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
    7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    OKLAHOMA CITY (45 - 34) at HOUSTON (64 - 15) - 4/7/2018, 8:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 31-46 ATS (-19.6 Units) in all games this season.
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 14-25 ATS (-13.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 16-28 ATS (-14.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) against Northwest division opponents this season.
    HOUSTON is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
    HOUSTON is 55-74 ATS (-26.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    HOUSTON is 11-4 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
    HOUSTON is 10-5 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
    8 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    PORTLAND (48 - 31) at SAN ANTONIO (45 - 34) - 4/7/2018, 9:05 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SAN ANTONIO is 5-3 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
    SAN ANTONIO is 6-3 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-07-2018 at 12:09 PM.

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    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Saturday, April 7


    Clippers are 6-4 in their last ten games with Denver (5-2 vs spread in last seven). Nuggets are 2-4 vs spread in last six series games played in Staples. Under is 7-3 in last ten series games. Denver won its last four games; they covered four of their last five road games. Over is 5-3-1 in their last nine games. Clippers lost three of their last four games; they’re 3-5 vs spread in last eight home games. Last three Clipper games went over total.

    Knicks lost their last four games with Milwaukee; under is 5-2 in last seven series games. Bucks are 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Manhattan. Milwaukee is 5-3 in its last eight games; they are 8-2 as road favorites this season. Over is 9-1 in their last ten games. New York lost six of its last eight games; they’re 3-8 in last 11 games as home underdogs. Under is 5-3-1 in their last nine games.

    Bulls won six of last nine games with Brooklyn; last five series games stayed under. Nets are 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to Chicago. Brooklyn is 3-5 in its last eight games; they’re 1-1 as road favorites this season. Over is 6-4 in their last ten games. Bulls won three of its last four games; they’re 6-2 vs spread in last eight games as home underdogs. Over is 2-0-1 in their last three games.

    Golden State won its last ten games with the Pelicans (6-4 vs spread); over is 7-2 in last nine series games. New Orleans is 1-4 vs spread in its last five visits to Oakland. Pelicans are 6-4 in their last 10 games; they’re 7-4 in last 11 games as road underdogs. Four of their last six games stayed under. Warriors won three of their last four games; they’re 2-5 in last seven games as home favorites. Over is 3-1 in their last four home games.

    Rockets won eight of last ten games with Oklahoma City; under is 3-1 in last four series games. Thunder are 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to Houston. OKC lost four of its last five games; they are 3-5 in last eight games as road underdogs. Six of their last seven games stayed under. Rockets won nine of their last ten games; they’re 6-3 vs spread in last nine home games. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.

    Portland won three of last four games with San Antonio; four of last five series games went over the total. Trailblazers are 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to the Alamo. Portland is 4-5 in its last nine games; they’re 6-0 vs spread in last six games as road underdogs. Over is 6-4 in their last ten games. Spurs lost four of their last six games; they’re 8-0 vs spread in last eight games as a home favorite. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.

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    NBA

    Saturday, April 7


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    Trend Report
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    Denver Nuggets
    Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Denver is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
    Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Clippers
    Denver is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing LA Clippers
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Denver's last 13 games when playing LA Clippers
    Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
    Denver is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
    Los Angeles Clippers
    LA Clippers is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games at home
    LA Clippers is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games at home
    LA Clippers is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Denver
    LA Clippers is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Denver
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of LA Clippers's last 13 games when playing Denver
    LA Clippers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
    LA Clippers is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Denver
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Clippers's last 7 games when playing at home against Denver


    Milwaukee Bucks
    Milwaukee is 7-14 ATS in its last 21 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games
    Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 8 games on the road
    Milwaukee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New York
    Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing New York
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 7 games when playing New York
    Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New York
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing on the road against New York
    New York Knicks
    New York is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    New York is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    New York is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games at home
    New York is 4-15 SU in its last 19 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of New York's last 12 games at home
    New York is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Milwaukee
    New York is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 7 games when playing Milwaukee
    New York is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee


    Brooklyn Nets
    Brooklyn is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
    Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
    Brooklyn is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Brooklyn's last 11 games on the road
    Brooklyn is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing Chicago
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Brooklyn's last 5 games when playing Chicago
    Brooklyn is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Chicago
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Brooklyn's last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago
    Chicago Bulls
    Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Chicago is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 9 games
    Chicago is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games at home
    Chicago is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing Brooklyn
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Brooklyn
    Chicago is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing at home against Brooklyn


    New Orleans Pelicans
    New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    New Orleans is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
    New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games
    New Orleans is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
    New Orleans is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games on the road
    New Orleans is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing Golden State
    New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    New Orleans is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    Golden State Warriors
    Golden State is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Golden State's last 18 games
    Golden State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Golden State is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games at home
    Golden State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Golden State's last 10 games at home
    Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Golden State's last 9 games when playing New Orleans
    Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
    Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans


    Oklahoma City Thunder
    Oklahoma City is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    Oklahoma City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games on the road
    Oklahoma City is 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Houston
    Oklahoma City is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Houston
    Oklahoma City is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Houston
    Oklahoma City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
    Houston Rockets
    Houston is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
    Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 9 games at home
    Houston is 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Oklahoma City
    Houston is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Oklahoma City
    Houston is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
    Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City


    Portland Trail Blazers
    Portland is 14-3-2 ATS in its last 19 games
    Portland is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
    Portland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Portland is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Portland's last 16 games on the road
    Portland is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Antonio
    Portland is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Antonio
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing San Antonio
    Portland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
    Portland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
    San Antonio Spurs
    San Antonio is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games
    San Antonio is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    San Antonio is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
    San Antonio is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 7 games
    San Antonio is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games at home
    San Antonio is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Portland
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing Portland
    San Antonio is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Portland
    San Antonio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Portland
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing at home against Portland


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-07-2018 at 12:10 PM.

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    NBA
    Dunkel

    Saturday, April 7



    Denver @ LA Clippers

    Game 701-702
    April 7, 2018 @ 3:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Denver
    118.706
    LA Clippers
    119.667
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Clippers
    by 1
    214
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Denver
    by 2
    222 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Clippers
    (+2); Under

    Milwaukee @ New York


    Game 703-704
    April 7, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Milwaukee
    116.771
    New York
    113.418
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Milwaukee
    by 3 1/2
    215
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Milwaukee
    by 9 1/2
    220
    Dunkel Pick:
    New York
    (+9 1/2); Under

    Brooklyn @ Chicago


    Game 705-706
    April 7, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Brooklyn
    117.417
    Chicago
    107.985
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Brooklyn
    by 9 1/2
    221
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Brooklyn
    by 5
    216 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Brooklyn
    (-5); Over

    New Orleans @ Golden State


    Game 707-708
    April 7, 2018 @ 8:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    New Orleans
    116.661
    Golden State
    126.712
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Golden State
    by 10
    215
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Golden State
    by 7
    226
    Dunkel Pick:
    Golden State
    (-7); Under

    Oklahoma City @ Houston


    Game 709-710
    April 7, 2018 @ 8:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Oklahoma City
    121.326
    Houston
    124.896
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Houston
    by 3 1/2
    223
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Houston
    by 6 1/2
    218 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Oklahoma City
    (+6 1/2); Over

    Portland @ San Antonio


    Game 711-712
    April 7, 2018 @ 9:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Portland
    00.000
    San Antonio
    00.000
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Portland

    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Portland

    Dunkel Pick:
    Portland
    ( );
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-07-2018 at 12:11 PM.

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    NBA
    Dunkel

    Saturday, April 7



    Portland @ San Antonio

    Game 711-712
    April 7, 2018 @ 9:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Portland
    121.419
    San Antonio
    121.226
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Portland
    Even
    208
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    San Antonio
    by 4 1/2
    201 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Portland
    (+4 1/2); Over
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-07-2018 at 12:13 PM.

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    NBA Betting Roadmap: Final home games of the season are a spot bet gold mine
    Al McMordie

    LaMarcus Aldridge and the San Antonio Spurs are 1-11 straight up in their last 12 road games. The club's defense ranks 22nd in the NBA in games played away from its home court.

    The NBA's season has just six days left, and most of the playoff seeds are unknown at this juncture. In the Eastern conference, Cleveland and Philly are tussling over the No. 3 seed, while Miami, Washington and Milwaukee all hope to avoid the eighth slot.

    Out West, it's even more congested with the Jazz, Spurs, Thunder, Pelicans, Timberwolves and Nuggets separated by a mere two games in the standings. Let's take a look at the season's final week.

    Spread Watch

    There is no hotter team in the NBA right now than the Philadelphia 76ers. Brett Brown's men have won their last 12 games and have covered 10 in a row. This hot streak has moved the 76ers within a half-game of the Cavaliers for the third seed in the East. And, of course, with a hobbled Celtics squad currently in second, the third spot is a lot more desirable than the fourth.

    What's most impressive about Philly's streak is that it has continued to win ever since center Joel Embiid went down with an injury on March 28. The Sixers will be favored to win each of their four remaining games, including the all-important home game on Friday, April 6 vs. Cleveland.

    Can the Sixers run the table and end the season on a 16-game win streak (and 14-game ATS win streak)? I wouldn't bet against them. And especially not if they top Cleveland on Friday (which I think they will).

    The Sixers will have a big advantage in that game because Cleveland will be playing without rest, and the Cavaliers are an awful 2-14 ATS on the road off back-to-back wins when playing without rest. Lay the points with the 76ers on Friday.

    Total Watch

    The San Antonio Spurs have a severe home/road bias this season. At home, the Spurs are 31-8 straight-up and 24-13-2 ATS. And they've won their last nine home games in a row (8-1 ATS; 7-2 Under the total).

    But on the road, San Antonio is a miserable 14-26 SU and 17-22-1 ATS, including 0-7 SU its last seven (and 1-11 SU its last 12). A key reason for this is that San Antonio's defense has not traveled with it on the road. Since the All-Star break, the Spurs' defensive rating at home is 97.3 (second in the NBA) and 110.5 on the road (22nd).

    Not surprisingly, San Antonio has now gone Over the total in 10 of its last 14 road games. The Spurs will close out the season with home games against Portland and Sacramento, and a road game next Wednesday, at New Orleans. Of these, I would target the Saturday night home game vs. the Trail Blazers to play Under the total, as Portland's currently riding a 5-1 Under streak.

    Injury Watch

    The Golden State Warriors are the league's most talented team. Unfortunately, this might be a star-crossed season (which some might view as karma for Zaza Pachulia's takeout of Kawhi Leonard in last year's playoffs).

    Steph Curry and Patrick McCaw have significant injuries, while Omri Casspi and Andre Iguodala also are hobbled. The Warriors are 57-22 SU and 33-46 ATS this season, and firmly planted in second place in the Western Conference.

    They also haven't covered two straight games since February 26, and have gone 5-13 ATS since. The Dubs will play their final home game of the season on Saturday versus the Pelicans (who are still battling for a playoff spot), and then travel to play the Suns (Sunday) and Jazz (Tuesday).

    Without anything to play for, I would grab the points with Phoenix in a home underdog role, on Sunday. Yes, it's true that the Warriors have won 14 straight in the series, but the last game was close, and the Suns easily covered in Oakland as 14.5-point underdogs.

    This game will be Phoenix's final home game of the season, and home underdogs have cashed 60 percent since 1991 in their final home game when playing teams with .666 winning percentages or better.

    Take the Suns + the points over Golden State.

    Schedule Watch

    The Washington Wizards will close out their home schedule with a game next Tuesday vs. the Celtics. And the Wizards will play that game with a significant rest advantage. The Wiz will have had the previous three days off, while the Celtics will play on just one day of rest. Since 1991, .500 or better teams have cashed 59.2 percent in their final home games of the season when playing with at least two more days' of rest than their opponents.

    We'll lay the points with Washington on Tuesday.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-07-2018 at 12:13 PM.

  9. #9
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    NBA

    Saturday, April 7



    Total Streaks

    *Over is 21-8-1 in the Nuggets’ last 30 games.
    *The Over is 14-3 in the Bucks’ last 17 games.
    *The Over is 4-0-1 in the Bulls last five home games.
    *The Under is 6-1 in the Thunder’s last seven games.

    Injury of Note

    Blazers All-Star point guard Damian Lillard is expected to return after sitting out a game with a sore ankle. Portland lost 96-94 against the Rockets but covered as a 10.5-point underdog. The Blazers are 5-4 SU and 4-4-1 ATS without Lillard in the lineup this season.

    Ref to Watch

    The Golden State Warriors won’t be happy to see NBA referee Josh Tiven Saturday night. The Dubs are 5-5 straight up and 1-9 against the spread in the last 10 games worked by Tiven. Golden State is a 6.5-point home favorite against the New Orleans Pelicans.

    Trends

    *The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games between the Nuggets and Clippers.
    *The Nets are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 road games.
    *The Thunder are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games.
    *The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last six games playing on zero rest.
    *The Spurs are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games.

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